Latest Iran Video (19-20 October): More University Demonstrations (Tehran & Karaj)

The Latest from Iran (20 October): Green Waves or Green Mirage?

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Six claimed video of University demonstrations from Monday and Tuesday

University of Tehran, 20 October

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vv6WQuwsHAs[/youtube]

Amir Kabir University, Tehran, 19 October

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EE7wL-vhenc[/youtube]

Azad University, Karaj, 20 October

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=idfXYwNBDbI&feature=channel[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bb7Jdfys1Lw&feature=channel[/youtube] [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ninVZgYuBHM[/youtube] [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2g8L1He_og[/youtube]

Israel-Turkey Crisis: Obama Intervenes

Israel-Turkey Tensions: Now the Israeli Public Joins In

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After another downward spiral in Israel-Turkey relations, marked by cultural disputes over the Turkish television series depicting cruelty by Israeli troops and by the military rift of the cancelled multi-national exercise, Barack Obama has intervened.

On Saturday, the US President called his Turkish counterpart Abdullah Gul. The statement released by the White House said: "The two presidents agreed on the importance of continued consultations on these and other key topics on the global security agenda."

The Jerusalem Post goes beyond this vague declaration to claim, from US sources, that the Obama Administration is very concerned about Turkey's actions towards Israel and growing closeness with Syria. The implication is that the telephone conversation between two leaders brought up the tense relationship between Tel Aviv and Ankara.

The Latest from Iran (19 October): Beyond Bombings, The Pressure on the Government

NEW Iran Snap Analysis: Mousavi’s Webcast Takes “National Unity” Beyond Politics
NEW Iran Discussion: The Bombings, Jundallah, and the US
NEW Video: Mousavi’s First Post-Election Webcast (18 October)
NEW Video: Larijani on The Bombings, Jundallah & The US (18 October)
Iran Newsflash: National Unity Plan Submitted to Supreme Leader

Iran: The Great Supreme Leader Health Mystery
Video: Blame on Sunni Group Jundallah, US For Bombing
The Latest from Iran (18 October): Today’s Bombings

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1910 GMT: In case you're wondering why, after the initial media distractions (0825 and 1355 GMT), there were no updates on today's talks between Iran and the "5+1" powers over uranium enrichment....

Well, there was precious little to report, as all delegations stayed tight-lipped. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad El Baradei, offered some general encouragement, praising "a good meeting....We are off to a good start," but saying only that talks would resume Tuesday morning.

This was always the most likely outcome, since details of uranium enrichment and the logistics of transport and processing can be surprisingly complex. However, it appears that some of the international media were expecting the drama of either an agreement or a breakdown within hours, if not minutes. That foiled expectation produced the day's alternative high point, the tragi-comedy of CNN's Matthew Chance sinking from excitement into chilly whimpering:

1. just did first live shot....talks not even started yet, but lot of anticipation
2. ok talks finally begun
3. gonna do live right now
4. freezing out here...
5. jeez..all day silence... now the talks have broken up....

1840 GMT: Clerical Hope. Grand Ayatollah Sane'i, meeting members of the Qom branch of the “Green Path of Hope”, has said different views should not lead to division and should be resolved through dialogue and negotiation. He asked, however, how one can speak to a Government that calls people agents of traitors and foreigners and that insults the families of martyred heroes. (English summary on Mousavi Facebook site)

1815 GMT: Khamenei Speaks (or At Least His Official Site Does). Back from an academic break to find the official statement from the Supreme Leader on the Sunday bombings: "The Islamic system shall not withhold any energy to defend the region and the people" against the terrorists and enemies "backed by arrogant governments".

1555 GMT: Supreme Leader Speaks? Reuters reports, from Press TV, that Ayatollah Khamenei has said that Iran will "punish" those responsible for Sunday's bombings and that enemies "can't harm the unity" amongst Iranians. It is unclear, however, whether the Supreme Leader's statement was in a message on his website or in a public appearance.

1545 GMT: Political Terms. We have been referring to Jundallah in the last 48 hours as a "Sunni group", but my impression is that a more accurate description would be "Baluch insurgent group", reflecting the regional emphasis of its objectives. Any comments most welcome.

1505 GMT: We have moved our snap analysis of Mir Hossein Mousavi's webcast on "National Unity" to a separate entry.

1435 GMT: Here They (the Revolutionary Guard and the "Western" Media) Go Again. A predictable if ridiculous escalation in the Iran v. US narrative. The commander of the Revolutionary Guard, General Jafari, makes his comments to Iranian journalists denouncing the US, Israel, and Pakistan in Sunday's bombings by Jundallah and promises to "retaliate" (see 0850 GMT). Reuters turns Jafari not only into the Ahmadinejad Government but all of Iran, as in its headline, "Iran Threatens Britain and US After Guard Bombing".  The Guardian gives a token nod to Islamabad but does no other reporting beyond Reuters' declaration with its  "Iran blames Pakistan and west for deadly suicide bombing: Iran vows revenge".

None of the "Western" journalists, to our knowledge, take any notice of last night's Cabinet meeting, which distanced itself from criticism of the US. Indeed, no one seems to bother to ask, "If Iran really blames the US for this act, why is it negotiating with Washington at the Vienna talks today?"

1355 GMT: A Non-Threat. Let's hope the Western press don't swallow this (frankly ridiculous) media bait on today's enrichment talks. Press TV is featuring the declaration, from "a source close to the meetings", "Iran Rejects 'Direct Talks' with France in Vienna".

Since Iran is not speaking directly to France but to the "5+1" powers, this is the reddest of red herrings having no significance whatsoever.

1345 GMT: Montazeri E-Mails the BBC. Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has responded to a series of questions from the BBC on the Iranian Government and the Islamic Regime. After a rather fatuous start, "What is your view of claims that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is in contact with the Hidden Imam and that his government is working for the return of the Mahdi?", the interview produces Montazeri's declaration, "Due to the short-sightedness, ineptitude and lack of wisdom, as well as arrogance and neglect of the demands of the majority of the people by a small inefficient minority, many of the initial ideals of the revolution have not been fulfilled." And he repeats his warning to the Supreme Leader:

As, in my view, the government will not achieve legitimacy without the support of the people, and as the necessary and obligatory condition for the legitimacy of the ruler is his popularity and the people's satisfaction with him; therefore, the present dissatisfaction - which is unfortunately increasing - will have a direct bearing on the legitimacy of the ruling establishment, unless the wiser figures in the nation can think of a solution by changing the current policies, and can remove the causes of the dissatisfaction of the majority of the people, and deal with the people with kindness, mercy, compassion and humility.

1315 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have each issued statements condemning Sunday's bombings.

1230 GMT: Another Post-Election Prison Sentence. Hedayat Aghaei, a senior member of the Kargozaran Party, has been sentenced to five years in prison for "disrupting the public order by provoking people to riot, propagating against the Islamic republic...and acting against national security”.

The twist in the tale is that Kargozaran has been seen more as a party linked to Hashemi Rafsanjani, raising the question of how much this is a symbolic move against the former President.

1045 GMT: Where is Khamenei? At the risk of re-igniting rumours and speculation, a question: is it unusual for no statement or appearance from the Supreme Leader given the death toll from yesterday's bombings in Sistan-Baluchestan?

1040 GMT: Hammihan News reports that journalist Masoud Bastani, detained in early July, has been sentenced to six years in prison.

0850 GMT: The Government's Disarray Continues. President Ahmadinejad may want to get a hold of his Revolutionary Guards commander, General Mohammad Ali Jafari. Jafari has upset the Cabinet's attempts to damp down talk of US-first responsibility for the Sunday bombings, telling journalists that Washington and Israel are behind the attack and claiming links of Jundallah head Abdolmalek Rigi with US and Pakistani intelligence services.

0840 GMT: The Pakistani Government has denied any link to Sunday's bombing in southeastern Iran. "Pakistan is not involved in terrorist activities ... we are striving to eradicate this menace," Foreign Ministry Spokesman Abdul Basit told the Daily Times newspaper .

Pakistani President Asif Zardari has called Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to offer his condolences and reaffirm Pakistan’s commitment to fighting extremists.

0825 GMT: As the technical discussions between Iran and the "5+1" powers (US, UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany) open in Vienna, Tehran is throwing up a lot of chaff to divert the media. Following yesterday's assertion that Iran was not looking for third-party enrichment but would seek to buy high-enriched uranium from the US and other countries, a spokesman for Iran's nuclear energy authority declared this morning, "If the talks do not bring about Iran's desired result ... we will start to further enrich uranium ourselves."

Don't be distracted. The main proposal on the table is still the US-developed plan, after Iranian signals in June, for 80 percent of Iran's low-enriched uranium to be processed to 19.75 percent in Russia. (Here's our reminder of the details of the plan and negotiations.) That is the message between the lines of this report from Press TV, under the cover of "local enrichment", "The United States is considering ways to officially announce that it has agreed to Iran's demand to locally enrich uranium, sources say. The US has held private meetings with its European allies in order to inform them about the decision."

0815 GMT: EA's Mr  Smith and Chris Emery met up last night for a chat about the Sunday bombing, Jundallah, and the allegations of US involvement. The outcome is in a separate entry.

0725 GMT: The effects of yesterday's bombings in southeastern Iran still resonate, with people inside and outside the Government trying to assess the political as well as "security" effects. The immediate impression is that the regime is in a bit of disarray, both from the shock of losing six senior Revolutionary Guard commanders and from the symbolic significance of a suicide attack inside Iran.

The immediate reaction of the Revolutionary Guard and, more interestingly, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani (see separate video) was to blame "foreign elements" such as the US Government for the attacks, but this only caused further political complications. With an Iranian delegation meeting American counterparts and representative of the other "5+1" countries today for technical talks on uranium enrichment, the aggressive line risked a breakdown of engagement and, thus, the threat of harsher economic sanctions on Iran.

So the Ahmadinejad Cabinet, reviewing the situation last night, re-focused Tehran's strategy. blaming Pakistan and pressuring it to co-operate in the pursuit of Jundallah, the insurgent group blamed for the bombings. Given the complexity of Pakistani politics and its own tangled internal situation, that pressure is unlikely to lead to a resolution in the near-future.

But this is the only start of the bombings' political effects.

No doubt the Government will gather itself to put the attacks within the context of post-election "disturbances" by the opposition, but this is not the easiest of propositions. Jundullah is a political light-year away from the nature and content of the Green movement, and of course no one in the opposition is going to offer any public sympathy for violence against Iranian officials or the military, even the Revolutionary Guard.

So, while Ahmadinejad and advisors try to re-align the security situation, internal politics, and their international manoeuvres, there is a space for others to take advantage. And, indeed, yesterday's "other" events may prove more significant than the Baluchestan bombing. The revelation that the National Unity Plan has now gone to the Supreme Leader for consideration (see separate entry) establishes that, despite all the pressure from Ahmadinejad supporters to contain and even sabotage the Plan, a cross-section of groups --- and, yes, former President Hashemi Rafsanjani --- have persisted. We are still in the dark about the details of the Plan, but it has long been clear that its proposals for system reform, first and foremost in the short-term, will put limits and possibly pressure on Ahmadinejad.

So it is far more than notable that Mir Hossein Mousavi made his own intervention yesterday, for the first time using an Internet interview (see separate video) to set out his political vision and call on the Iranian people to persist in their efforts for change. Most importantly for now, he opened by aligning himself with the National Unity Plan while, at the same time, encouraging the Green movement to use "virtual media" to ensure its voice was heard.

Iran Snap Analysis: Mousavi's Webcast Takes "National Unity" Beyond Politics

Latest Iran Video and Full English Text: Mousavi’s First Post-Election Webcast (18 October) 

The Latest from Iran (19 October): Beyond Bombings, The Pressure on the Government
The Latest from Iran (18 October): Today’s Bombings

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Beyond Establishment Politics to "Unity"? Thanks to EA reader Megan and the Facebook site linked to Mir Hossein Mousavi, we now have a full translation of Mousavi's remarks in his first Webcast.

It is a significant move. How significant I can't tell yet, not because Mousavi was vague --- to the contrary, his position is now clear -- but because he is trying to move beyond the framework of "standard" politics within the Iranian system.

First, the specifics. In the alleged (and now largely discredited) draft of the National Unity Plan published in late September by Fars News, the central committee including a Mousavi representative. No way, said Mousavi in the interview. He had never been in discussions about a National Unity Plan, although he knew about the initiative of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, the ideas of Ayatollah Mahdavi-Kani, and the interest of other well-meaning individuals.

Indeed, Mousavi does not see the primary role for himself (and presumably the Green movement) as part of the Plan. Instead, "National Unity" for him has a second meaning --- it is a social movement, beyond political parties, encompassing and furthering the ideals of the Iranian nation and the Islamic Revolution. This "expression of national will", despite all the obstacles put up by the Government, will be triumphant.

All well and good, but that leaves a pretty big immediate question. Given that the Plan has now been submitted to the Supreme Leader for consideration and thus approval, does Mousavi accept it if all parties involved decide to proceed? Does he dare reject it? Or does he, as I suspect he will, stand aside from it with the declaration that "National Unity" transcends any political arrangements?

Latest Iran Video and Full English Text: Mousavi's First Post-Election Webcast (18 October)

Iran Snap Analysis: Mousavi’s Webcast Takes “National Unity” Beyond Politics
The Latest from Iran (19 October): Beyond Bombings, The Pressure on the Government
The Latest from Iran (18 October): Today’s Bombings

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UPDATE 1330 GMT: We have posted a snap analysis of the Webcast and Mousavi's political strategy.

An English-language translation, adapted from the Facebook site associated with Mir Hossein Mousavi, follows the video:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=miU0q1qLQVw[/youtube]

Explaining the “National Unity” plan

This phrase has been used in media in different ways and it is good to separate them from each other. In the meeting that I had with the members of the minority reformist faction of the parliament, I discussed the issue of “National Unity”. In that discussion my intention to use this phrase was in the sense of a public will that has been strengthened during the election campaign, based on our heritage,  civilization, common national interests, and the message of a better future, prosperity, and progress of our country. The issue of “National Unity” was important in that regards, and we all witnessed the enthusiasm that had been created in the country regarding this issue.

I believe that even after the post-election events, this asset should be preserved and we should try to strengthen it. National Unity is extremely important to all of us and we all must focus on it. In this case the interpretation of Unity is the unity among all people of all classes and unity between intellectuals, students, different ethnic and cultural groups.

During the election campaign the human chain that connected North of Tehran to South of Tehran was one of the best aspects of National Unity among all classes of people who had participated in that event, and this has created a wave all over the country, and with this picture the idea of “Green Path of Hope” was shaped.

However, besides this case “National Unity” has been used with different meanings. After the recent events that happened in the country, which we all are very well aware, a number of individuals with different intentions and some with good intentions have been trying to find a way to lower the tension between the political figures by dialogue and discussions. There is a proposal by Ayatollah Hashemi-Rafsanjani, also Ayatollah Mahdavi-Kani has ideas about this issue, and generally different individuals have been commenting regarding this. What is important is that I have not commented on this issue yet.

However, considering the rumors that are spreading regarding the discussions in this matter, I have a memory from Imam [Khomeini]. During the McFarlane story [Iran-Contra affair of the 1980s], which caused a crisis, people did not know if [then US National Security Advisor Robert] McFarlane had come to Iran, whether he had come to Iran secretly and had returned [to the US]. This issue was first reported by a Syrian newspaper, and in the debate among the heads of the three branches of the government, it had been mentioned given the sensitivity about the issue of relations to the US and talking with the US, it would have been apparent that it could have caused a crisis in the country.

So the heads of the three branches of the government and I went to Imam [Khomeini] and asked for his advice. When the case was explained to Imam Khomeini --- with what group this person [Macfarlane] had come and left, what was the outcome of his trip, and the fact that this case had been reported by a Lebanese or Syrian newspaper and would have been known inside the country as well --- the Imam said, “Go and let the people know about this issue, people should be informed” and also discussed this issue a bit. When we were leaving, Imam Khomeini added a sentence that I have always remembered in my mind as a golden and important sentence. He said, “Never act in such a way that you won’t be able to explain it to people,” and I have always remembered this.

Therefore, if there is going to be any talk, discussion, debate,  or issue, naturally as a companion of this great movement, I will share it with the people, and it won’t be such that I cannot defend it. It would be wise that regarding this matter or similar cases, given the incompetence of the domestic media and the fact that they are working against the Green Path of Hope, and that we don’t have a conventional media and all of our media have been restricted, people should be vigilant on which media is spreading these news by considering their direction and their party affiliation and their possible intensions. This can help us to move in a thoughtful atmosphere that is according to our own values.

Explaining whether you have been contacted or visited regarding this issue

No, there have been no such discussions. However, I am aware of Ayatollah Hashemi-Rafsanajani’s proposal that he had mentioned during the Friday Prayers as well as the suggestions that some of the members of the Expediency Council shared with him. Also through the media, I am aware of the remarks that are claimed to be made by Ayatollah Mahdavi-Kani and others. Also I sometimes have witnessed that others with good intentions have raised such issues, but there has been no direct contact with me regarding this and there has been no correspondence and no official talks. In general nothing has been done regarding this issue.

In the 13th statement you have mentioned that we must embed our socio-political achievements into our lives and into our struggle. You had a sentence: “we must live the green path of hope.” Although this is very elegant phrase, it may come across as ambiguous in some case, can you elaborate on that?

Our nation has started a massive movement and we are involved in it too. Hopefully [if God is willing] I will continue toward this very direction that people are marching on. If we look carefully, early on when these incidents happened in the country, there were discussion on how to move, and what should our response be so that we can benefit from big achievements of the elections and the Islamic Revolution and continue them. There were discussions on creation of parties or fronts or other groups, all within the frameworks of political campaigns inside the country or as they are defined internationally. We thought that none of these can fulfill our goals and purposes. We saw that none of these constructs were coherent with the experiences that we had prior to the election, and of course the [same] experiences that we had together.

In this election, we saw that families, political, religious, artistic, cultural groups, and in general anyone anywhere according to their own methodology and capability helped out and entered the movement. In fact this was a continuation of our discussions earlier that every citizen would "stand as a campaign headquarters". An action like that led to a national network. Actually, it was this very phenomenon that was the source of strength for this movement.

The movement did not get its power from a political party. This does not mean that parties were not influential, or will not have an affect. No. Parties would always maintain their own standing, and their position is of key importance and will remain a necessity. They must continue with their own activities. However, we thought to continue on this path, to achieve our goals and ideals under the banner of “advance Iran”, and to fulfill people’s demands, achieving the full realization of people’s rights, we must continue on under something much more inclusive and encompassing [from a single party], especially with the knowledge from the experiences [of unity] prior to the elections. And we did continue in such a manner and we announced it too.

In such a perspective, it is unimportant how much every person can contribute, or how they contribute. The important thing is that there will be a national will that would remain. From only one person in one family to large parties and political groups and fronts with experience, everyone would be able to send help to this massive movement in the framework of their own daily activities. I have always believed that a even a blind person, an old woman, old man, or someone who cannot possibly attend any of political activities, if from the corner of their own homes they send a prayer, we can consider it as an activity inside this network, let alone all the organized activism of large political groups.

Today we stand witness to a unique and exeptional blooming of creativity among our artistic groups. None of these belong to a movement of a party. Instead they belong to a large social network. We have numerous clips, and anthems were created, not to mention countless paintings, drawings and cartoons. The extent of the flow of this creativity is not comparable to any period of our history. These are the bulk and the essence of the movement. These are what create the content of dialogues of this huge wave and this massive movement. They guide it and push it forward. This does not happen in a framework of party or any one political front. At times, two or three artists come together, or in larger or smaller groups, on corners of our country and even outside of our country, they have come together to send their help. There are joined by religious groups, religious gatherings, charity organizations and other political groups.

In fact here, the struggle has become a way of life, a life that continues and is unstoppable. It is not the case that you can constrain it at a point. As a result this movement is a movement that cannot be harmed. In an environment of collective dialogue and discussion these movements would be ever more encouraged and push themselves forward. In this regards, the media are of key importance. The labor that people pull in our media is honorable and much appreciated. Here, I emphasize yet again that considering that we do not have any media at all, we must pay more attention to such means and tools [of communication], and benefit more from them. This is a miracle that we have seen during and after the elections, and considering our current situation we must take advantage of such tools. Naturally, we are connecting the individual and the social environments through the media and all the while we are creating a enormous movement with large span, and a long range.

The fact is that this movement does not belong to any one small group, party or political current, neither does it follow a specific detail oriented struggle nor is it a fully oppositional movement. This movement is one that is a current that is blended into dreams, ideals, and style of lives of our own people. That is why it is very sustainable.

We want to get our inspiration from readings of the Qu'ran that say: “Make your own homes a Kaaba”. [All Muslims around the world face the Kaaba during prayers, no matter where they are.] It must be that, in referring to this expansive social network, in their own large and small groups, each person contribute his/her own share to the movement, so that the movement can maintain shape and continue.

How can we find a solution to the crisis?

Until we accept that we have a problem and are in a crisis, until the larger group of majority of people is labeled as disturbance, until people are not counted in the equations [of power] and until the rights of people to determine their own destinies is not accepted, we can not find a universal solution to our problem.

For this reason our national unity, as I referred to it in the second meaning that I introduced earlier, contains the activities of the groups and crowds of people. Since these gatherings are with good intentions, I think it is necessary that in every movement people be respected, that the majority is not alienated. People are together, even those of them who have different views. It is we who analyze them and impose the differences, and unfortunately we separate the people from one another. The maxim here is that people should be respected. Their perspectives and ideas should be accepted. We must return to these fundamental rules. We must rely on the fundamental that we must return to the constitution and we must insist on the fundamental principle, "Governance of people over their own destinies." Only then we can easily find a solution to this problem.