Iran Newsflash: National Unity Plan Submitted to Supreme Leader

NEW Iran: Khamenei, Bahari, Hajjarian, and the “Semi-Normal”
The Latest from Iran (18 October): Today’s Bombings

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According to Habibollah Asgharowladi, the head of "traditional" right-wingers inside the Iranian Parliament, the National Unity Plan, "devised by some members of the Expediency Council", has been submitted to the Supreme Leader. He said all are waiting for Ayatollah Khamenei's critiques.

Details of the Plan will not be revealed at the present time because, as Asgharowladi puts it, "the enemy [Editor's Note: Who is the enemy?], who has superior listening capabilities, might be able to get hold of it soon" and possibly derail it.

The Latest from Iran (18 October): Today's Bombings

NEW Iran Newsflash: National Unity Plan Submitted to Supreme Leader
NEW Video: Blame on Sunni Group Jundallah, US For Bombing
NEW Iran: Khamenei, Bahari, Hajjarian, and the "Semi-Normal"
NEW Iran: The Great Supreme Leader Health Mystery
Iran: The Supreme Leader Lives — The Picture (17 October)
The Latest from Iran (17 October): Back to Semi-Normal

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2000 GMT: The official death toll from today's bombing is now 42.

1950 GMT: Coincidence or Sabotage? A passenger train travelling from Tehran to Kerman derailed today, and a tea factory in Golestan burned to the ground.

1925 GMT: Mehr News is reporting that the explosion near the Oil Ministry in Tehran was from a faulty air tank.

Islamic Republic News Agency, repeating the air tank story, is reporting one person killed and 17 injured.

1910 GMT: Switching the Foreign "Enemy" from the US to Pakistan. This morning, when the Revolutionary Guard was claiming Washington was behind the bombings, we wrote, "Watch carefully to see if the Ahmadinejad Government maintains this line, which could derail 'engagement'."

There's a big clue tonight that Ahmadinejad has chosen engagement over the blame-US line. Fars News reports that the Iranian Cabinet has demanded that Pakistan bring forward those who carried out the bombings, a positioning reinforced by the summoning of the Pakistani Ambassador to the Foreign Ministry. There is no mention of the US anywhere in the Fars story.

1900 GMT: There are reports of an explosion near the Oil Ministry in Tehran.

1830 GMT: The Death Toll Rises.... The afternoon number of 31 dead from this morning's bombing will rise, though it is uncertain how much. Fars News reports that 35 victims have already been identified.

1625 GMT: National Unity Plan. It's alive, and it apparently has been submitted to the Supreme Leader (who is apparently also alive) for consideration. We've posted a separate entry on the newsflash.

1535 GMT: Iran's Nuclear Programme: This is Not Good. If the following report from Press TV is accurate, Iran's nuclear negotiators --- on the eve of the Vienna technical talks --- just laughed in the face of the "West": "A team of Iranian experts heads for the Austrian capital to discuss the terms of a deal to buy highly-enriched uranium without exchanging any of Tehran's low-enriched uranium."

The deal discussed quietly since June between Iran and other countries, including the US, is precisely for Tehran to transfer 80 percent of its low-enriched uranium to third countries for enrichment. Simply adding highly-enriched supplies to Iran's existing low-enriched stock has no appeal for Washington, which sees third-party enrichment as a way to ensure that Tehran stays below the 20 percent enrichment maximum for "civilian" uses of uranium.


1530 GMT: Another Suspended Sentence. A day after the five-year suspended sentence for Saeed Hajjarian, the same judgement has been handed down on Shahab Tabatabai, Head of Campaign 88 for young supporters of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami.

1430 GMT: Now Back to Politics. Mir Hossein Mousavi, writing on his website Kalameh (English summary on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty) after a meeting with relatives of detained former Deputy Foreign Minister Mohsen Aminzadeh, says he will persist in efforts for reform in spite of the Government's attempts to suppress post-election protests:

Our people are not rioters. Reform will continue as long as people's demands are not met. Keeping these people in jail is meaningless. They should be released as soon as possible.

1340 GMT: On the international front, Fars News reports that Iran's delegation to the technical talks in Vienna tomorrow will include Ali Asghar Soltanieh, the Iranian ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Hamid Reza Asghari, deputy head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organisation, and Mehdi Khaniki, another IAEO chief executive. However, Ali Akhbar Salehi, the head of the IAEO is not going.

1330 GMT: Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has also taken the line that Washington carries responsibility for today's bombings, "We consider this recent terrorist act to be the result of the U.S. actions and this is a sign of their enmity."

To repeat: US and Iranian officials are due to meet tomorrow in the next step of engagement, technical talks on Iran's uranium enrichment programme.

1240 GMT: The Islamic Republic News Agency is featuring a message from President Ahmadinejad, offering his condolences to the families of those killed this morning and expressing confidence that there would be a swift response to the "criminal action".

1230 GMT: EA's Mr Smith checks in with detail on Jundallah and the bombing: "We would normally dismiss the Iranian allegations of foreign interference as the usual anti-West yarn from Tehran, but the claims against [Jundallah leader Abdolmalek] Rigi warrant extra attention. He is an extremely shadowy figure who appears to be well-protected, to the extent that his own brother has been caught and sentenced to death [Hamid Rigi was reprieved at the last minute although 13 other Jundullah members were executed] by the Iranian authorities but he himself is still at large.

"He has appeared several times on Voice of America Persian, under the label "Leader of the 'Popular Resistance Movement of Iran', which is something VOA made up --- it's not quite the Persian translation of Jundullah. Exactly how the VOA got hold of him for a live interview, via satellite phone, is quite unexplained, as is the prominence and deference accorded to him. This interview caused a serious backlash in the Iranian blogosphere and seriously discredited VOA Persian."

1215 GMT: Press TV's reporting is not only emphasising Jundallah's responsibility for the bombings but playing up a US connection. In a video we've posted in a separate entry, Press TV claims --- from an interview with the captured brother of Junduallah's leader, Abdolmalek Rigi --- that the group "has been in constant contact with the US Embassy in Islamabad [Pakistan] and this has been certified by different groups and sources [of Press TV]".

1200 GMT: The latest from Iranian state media puts the death toll from this morning's larger bombing at 29, including six senior Revolutionary Guard commanders, with 28 injured. The Sunni rebel group Jundallah is reported to have claimed responsibility for the attack. The Revolutionary Guard continue to allege that the US is involved, while state television has also blamed Britain.

0945 GMT: We've moved our initial morning analysis, considering the politics of the Supreme Leader's health, the release on bail of journalist Maziar Bahari, the suspended sentence for Saeed Hajjarian, and more arrests, to a separate analysis.

0920 GMT: Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting has identified the site of the larger of the two bombings as the gates of a conference hall, where the Revolutionary Guard meeting with tribal elders was to take place, in the city of Sarbaz in Sistan-Baluchestan.

0845 GMT: Press TV adds an interesting detail on the bombing, pointing to coordinated attacks: "At around the same time, another group of IRGC commanders were caught in an explosion as their convoy came under attack at a road junction" in the town of Pishin in Sistan-Baluchestan.

0840 GMT: No new details on the suicide boming, but Revolutionary Guard officials have issued a communique saying "foreign elements" linked to the US were responsible.

Watch carefully to see if the Ahmadinejad Government maintains this line, which could derail "engagement". US and Iranian delegations are due to meet tomorrow in the "5+1" technical talks on Iran's uranium enrichment.

0725 GMT: Iranian state media is reporting that "several" senior commanders have been killed by a suicide bombing in Zahedan, the capital of Sistan-Baluchestan Province in southeastern Iran, which left 60 dead and injured.

Those killed include General Noor Ali Shooshtari, the deputy commander of the IRGC ground forces, and Rajab Ali Mohammadzadeh, the IRGC's commander in Sistan-Baluchestan.

The IRGC commanders had gathered to meet tribal elders, purportedly for Shia-Sunni reconciliation. (English summary avaiable via Associated Press)

Latest Iran Video: Inside Jundallah and Today's Bombings (18 October)

The Latest from Iran (18 October): Today’s Bombings

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Four Videos on Jundallah, The Sunni Group Blamed for Today's Bombings

Al Arabiya Interview with Jundallah Leader Abdolmalek Rigi, 17 October 2008

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QojAl-4KPO0[/youtube]

Press TV's "Iran Today" on Jundallah, with Interview with Brother of Jundallah Leader Abdolmalek Rigi

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QX3_q6nLIvM[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1n2dfeGD8nc[/youtube]

Press TV on Jundallah and Alleged US Involvement

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-arXeDZgcec[/youtube]

Iran: Khamenei, Bahari, Hajjarian, and the "Semi-Normal"

The Latest from Iran (18 October): Today’s Bombings
NEW Iran: The Great Supreme Leader Health Mystery
Iran: The Supreme Leader Lives — The Picture (17 October)
The Latest from Iran (17 October): Back to Semi-Normal

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Little did we know, when we titled yesterday's updates "Back to Semi-Normal", how appropriate the label would turn out.

The most prominent semi-normal was the apparent reappearance of the Supreme Leader after recent rumours about his poor health. We've followed yesterday's special updates with an analysis this morning of the political significance beyond the pictures of his meetings with Senegal's President Abdoulaye Wade.

Then there was the semi-normal, which will dominate "Western" coverage today, of the release of Iranian-Canadian journalist Maziar Bahari on $300,000 bail from Evin Prison. Bahari had been held since June on allegations that he had passed sensitive information to "Western" agencies plotting velvet revolution in Iran; the authorities put him on show after the first Tehran trial in August to "confess".

If this is semi-normal for Bahari, who is not "free" but still awaits a formal judgement and sentencing, the event is even more semi-normal because it obscures a wider political move by the regime. In the post-election conflict, far more significant is the suspended five-year prison sentence handed down to Saeed Hajjarian, the reformist political leader who has been at the centre of the crisis since his arrest in June.

Hajjarian, disabled by an assassin's attack nine years ago but still one of the most powerful political theorists in Iran, became a symbol for the Green opposition; he was a far different symbol for the Government, who made his "confession" first amongst equals as they constructed their foreign-inspired attempt to overthrow the regime.

With Hajjarian's suspended sentence, the Government is trying to show a supposed willingness for conciliation while it draws a line under the crisis. EA's Mr Smith was wrong in his prediction --- that the Supreme Leader would give an amnesty to Hajjarian and other key reformists --- only by a few weeks. All is now well, the Government will claim, while being on guard to re-arrest Hajjarian, imposing the suspended sentence, if he or other reformists cause more trouble.

For, in this "semi-normal" political state, the regime is still detaining allies of Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi. At 4 a.m. yesterday Government forces raided the home of Mohammad Reza Mogheyseh, the head of the Karroubi-Mousavi special committee investigating prisoner abuse cases, and arrested the activist.

No, for all the drama surrounding the Supreme Leader, for all the attention that will be given to Bahari (see how many non-Iranian media outlets even mention the Hajjarian suspended sentence), the "real" political stories of this week --- and the week to come --- are the sustained challenge by opposition leaders like Mehdi Karroubi and the still little-known negotiations over the National Unity Plan.

It is 17 days to the demonstrations of 13 Aban (4 November).

Israel: Can Netanyahu Really Escape US Pressure?

Israel-Palestine: UN Council Endorses Goldstone Report — What Now?
Video: Protests over former Israel PM Olmert in Chicago

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On Friday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu criticized the endorsement by the United Nations Human Rights Council of the Goldstone Report, which claimed both Israel and Hamas had committed war crimes during the Gaza War in December-January. Netanyahu warned the Israeli nation to be prepared for a protracted struggle. Declaring "the delegitimization [of Israel] must be delegitimized", he added, "The UN has returned to the dark days during which it equated Zionism with racism."

Netanyahu's statement is in line with his Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman's leaked memorandum calling for a “zero-tolerance” policy for anti-Semitic expression around the world. But does the Prime Minister also back Lieberman's strategy of a move from “lone dependence” on Washington to the "neglected" parts of the world?

The was the only Security Council member that voted against the Goldstone resolution in the UNHRC. Yet Ha'aretz correspondent Aluf Benn believes the Obama Administration will use the diplomatic arena to get more Israeli concessions on the expansion of settlements:

Operation Cast Lead in Gaza was perceived in Israel as a shining victory. Rocket fire from Gaza was brought to a halt almost completely. The Israel Defense Forces emerged from its failure during the Second Lebanon War and deployed ground forces with few casualties. "The world" let the operation continue and did not impose a cease-fire. A wonderful war.

Ten months later, it seems the victory was a Pyrrhic one. Israel did not realize that the rules have changed with Barack Obama's election as U.S. president. Prime minister Ehud Olmert timed Cast Lead to take place during the twilight period between the outgoing and incoming U.S. administrations, and rightly assumed that the incumbent, George W. Bush, would fully back Israel. However, in contrast to the Lebanon war of 2006, which ended with a cease-fire, the Gaza campaign continues being fought - in the diplomatic arena and in public opinion - and Israel must cope with its consequences in a less-friendly Obama era.

During the first, military round, Israel benefited from the decisive superiority of its firepower. However the Palestinians moved the war's current round to an arena more comfortable for them, and are benefiting from their advantage in UN institutions and in public opinion. The calls to boycott Israel are getting louder. Turkey is shirking off its strategic alliance with Israel and is presenting IDF soldiers as horrible murderers of children. Hamas is gradually winning recognition as a legitimate player, as it continues to amass a stock of rockets without hindrance. Meanwhile Israel's leaders are busy defending the country against the United Nations' Goldstone report (that accuses Israel and Hamas of perpetrating war crimes), and some even have to worry now about being the object of arrest warrants in Europe.

Even if the legal process that Goldstone initiated ends up being halted, and Israel is not put in the dock in The Hague, its hands have been tied. The world, led by Obama, will not let it initiate a Cast Lead II operation. Certainly not when a right-wing government is in power in Jerusalem led by Benjamin Netanyahu, whom the world loves to hate. Netanyahu's clumsy attempt, in his Knesset speech this week, to link the war in Gaza to opposition leader Tzipi Livni did not really succeed. He is in power and the world considers him responsible. The Americans and the Europeans are using the Goldstone report to punish Netanyahu for his refusal to freeze the settlements.

The same thing happened to the Palestinians between the two intifadas. When they hurled stones during the first intifada (1987-1993) and the confrontation was in the West Bank and in the Gaza Strip, the world cheered them on and forced Israel to recognize the Palestine Liberation Organization and to let its leader Yasser Arafat establish his autonomy in the territories. The Palestinian violence at that time was perceived as appropriate resistance to occupation. During the second intifada, the Palestinians resorted to suicide attacks in Israeli cities. They succeeded in killing many more Israelis, but they lost in the diplomatic arena, especially after the September 11 attacks in the United States, when the rules changed. The world was fed up with terror attacks and it allowed then-prime minister Ariel Sharon to reoccupy the West Bank, lock Arafat in a cage (his headquarters in Ramallah) and eventually unload Gaza without a peace arrangement.

Operation Cast Lead was the most planned operation in the annals of Israel's wars. Its organizers filled out all the forms and checked off on all the procedural changes that had been recommended by the Winograd Committee after its investigation of the shortcomings of the Second Lebanon War. The campaign's goals were reasonable. The scenarios were rehearsed. The reservists were trained. Jurists anticipated the legality of every target and operational plan. The soldiers were properly outfitted with food, water and protective equipment. The local authorities in the Israeli rear functioned as they should have. The media obeyed. In short, the government and the IDF prepared exceptionally well for a Third Lebanon War. They only forgot that the conditions on the Palestinian front are different than in Lebanon.

Not everybody shared the euphoria. The defense minister, Ehud Barak, wanted to halt Cast Lead after two or three days, but was overruled by Olmert who wanted to keep the campaign going, and then going further. Columnists and commentators warned of Gaza becoming a quagmire.

And most interesting: The Winograd Committee anticipated the lurking legal danger to Israel, and in its final report had warned of "far-reaching consequences" resulting from the widening gap between the rules of warfare and the reality of fighting terror launched from civilian surroundings. The committee recommended pulling the legal experts out of the operation rooms, increasing and highlighting investigation of irregular activities, and working with friendly countries to amend the rules of warfare, a recommendation that is easy to make but difficult to implement. The Winograd report did not warn against going into the next war before the rules of warfare are changed. The legal recommendations, drafted with restraint out of fear they would be used for anti-Israeli propaganda, were lost in the sea of piquant items in the report.

Upon returning to power, Netanyahu hoped to leave the Palestinian issue on the side and focus on the Iranian threat and on economic reforms. Now his government will have to cope with the consequences of Cast Lead and do so under less than ideal conditions, heavy international pressure and fear of arrest warrants and charge sheets.