Iran: Ahmadinejad Chooses Confrontation Over Compromise and Governing

Iran: Green Wave Resurgent?
The Latest from Iran (7 September): Countdown to 18 September Begins

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The headline event yesterday was last night's raid on the offices of a committee, made up of Mir Hossein Mousavi's staff, investigating the abuse of detainees. We've got an update in a separate entry.

Yesterday's wider political story, however, was less dramatic as it evolved throughout the afternoon. We're still working through it, but it looks like President Ahmadinejad has once again stirred the pot --- not only versus the opposition but within the regime --- with some over-the-top talk.

Ahmadinejad's press conference yesterday morning was a delayed celebration of his win in getting almost all of his Ministers through Parliament --- it was supposed to be held last week but the delay in confirmations changed the plan. He used it primarily to crow about the election and his vanquishing of the opposition with the "victory of the Iranian nation’s morality against immoralities" and "success in removing contamination from Revolution".

So, instead of taking a calmer tone and talking down confrontation, the President was taking Iranians back to his first victory speech, on the weekend after the election, when he dismissed his opponents as "dust".

But Ahmadinejad once again did not get away with it.

It is one thing for reformists to criticise the President for his words, another for others in the Establishment to take offense. Have another look at yesterday's updates: the Supreme Leader's admonition to the Cabinet to listen to "benevolent criticism" now appears as a direct response to the President: back off the macho chatter and concentrate on governing the country.

Even more important, Ahmadinejad's speech prompted the Society of Militant Clergy to break cover and issue their first post-election statement with the call "to seriously try to solve people’s problems and the country’s economic and social issues, and avoid talking about unnecessary and provocative issues". The Society is "conservative", but as it includes members such as Hashemi Rafsanjani, it cannot be considered an unconditional supporter of the Government.

For EA, one of the recurrent themes of the post-election conflict has been that opportunities for compromise, and thus some resolution of the crisis, have been passed up. Ahmadinejad's first victory speech, the Supreme Leader's Friday Prayer address of 19 June, the decision to hold the Tehran trials, and the President's recent introduction of Friday Prayers are all examples. Ahmadinejad just added another.

There is a split of opinion here amongst the significance of this tough line. For some at EA, it is a sign of the growing strength of Ahmadinejad, backed by political allies and the Revolutionary Guard, and his skills as a street-fighting politician. For others, including me, it is a high-risk strategy which is trying to cover up his weaknesses.

And, to return to yesterday, here may be the primary weakness, beyond the talk of a new wave of protest and the manoeuvres of Mousavi-Khatami-Karroubi: Ahmadinejad has to govern. But because he is not as comfortable governing (and arguably not as good as governing as he is at issuing challenges and threats), he is always likely to return to the language and image of his triumph in the confrontation of his opponents.

Is that his undoing? Far too dramatic a question and far too soon to tell.

The Latest from Iran (7 September): Countdown to 18 September Begins

NEW Iran Urgent: Mousavi HQ Raided by Security Forces
Iran: Green Wave Resurgent?
Iran’s Victims: The 72 People Killed in Post-Election Conflict
Iran: Resistance and Music – New Shajarian Song “Language of Fire”
The Latest from Iran (6 September): The Reformists Speak

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2030 GMT: No Criticism Here. Press TV's website writes out the admonition of the Supreme Leader to President Ahmadinejad and the Cabinet to take heed of "benevolent criticism" (see 1830 GMT). Instead the report emphasizes Ayatollah Khamenei's declaration about the legitimacy established by the election, “The nation and the Islamic Revolution have proven their republican nature. If officials, elites and political experts understand this fact, many of the country's problems will be resolved."

1930 GMT: Is the Regime Targeting Leaders' Children? That's the question asked by one of our readers, who noticed the arrest of Atefeh Emam, the 18-year old daughter of Mir Hossein Mousavi's Chief of Staff, Javad Emam, who is still detained himself. She was reportedly released earlier today, after 24 hours of continuous interrogation, near a Tehran cemetery.

Earlier in the crisis, the regime arrested several members of the family of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, and pressure has been placed this week on the son of Mehdi Karroubi.

1830 GMT: Khamenei Manoeuvres. In a line which is not that far from the "conservative" Society of Militant Clergy criticism of the President, the Supreme Leader has advised Ahmadinejad and his Cabinet: "There is internal criticism backed by foreign media with the aim of sabotage but there is also benevolent criticism which may not come from supporters of the government but they contain good comments."

1710 GMT: Clerics Warn Ahmadinejad. The reformist Association of Teachers and Researchers of Qom have issued a statement warning that the regime cannot be maintained with military force, arrests, and brutality.

More intriguing, however, may be a finger-wagging at the President from the "conservative" Society of Militant Clergy, their first intervention in the post-election crisis:

We ask the president and the government to seriously try to solve people’s problems and the country’s economic and social issues, and avoid talking about unnecessary and provocative issues. The comments made and the disrespect committed in the debates, speeches and rallies before and after the election caused divergence.

The Society criticised the opposition for pursuing demands "outside law", but it also called for "consoling" those harmed in the unrest.

Possibly Relevant Fact: One of the members of the Society is former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.

1645 GMT: A Norooz News article, featured on Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook page, says that:

"Security Forces attacked the Staff office of Mir Hossein Mousavi which was resposible for following the issues of the detainees, without any legal premisson. All documentations were confiscated and taken out to... an unknown destination. As Staff members asked for receipt, security forces answered that no documents will be given back, thus there will be no receipt !!"

(Thanks to Mike Dunn for covering, as I was stuck in traffic when this came through. We have posted as a separate entry, cleaning up some of the text and adding a brief analysis.)

1430 GMT: We've been watching since reports came in yesterday of a meeting in Qom between Grand Ayatollahs Golpaygani and Makarem-Shirazi. Now the website of the Green movement, Mowj-e-Sabz, is reporting that there were several Grand Ayatollahs and senior clerics, including Bayat-Zanjani, Montazeri, and Mousavi-Ardebili, in the discussion of "practical steps against the coup government", after receving letters from political and social activists.

1340 GMT: Fars News reports that Press TV will soon air a "roundtable" of detainees Saeed Hajjarian, Mohammad Atrianfar, and Saeed Shariati on the causes of their "change of attitude and intellectual development".

1130 GMT: We're here but it is a very slow day, with little breaking on the political front.

There is one story that catches the eye. According to Tehran Bureau, via a source, the revelations of the abuses of detainees in Kahrizak Prison cames from a photographer for the Supreme Leader.

The well-known documentary maker and photojournalist, who recorded the eight-year Iraq-Iran war and became a ‘Sacred Defense’ photographer, was arrested during the post-election unrest and taken to Kahrizak where he was abused and tortured. After his release, he informed Ayatollah Khamenei about jail rapes and prisoner abuse. When the Supreme Leader expressed disbelief, the man revealed that he was one of the victims: "What they did was inhumane and in violation of all human rights… When they did those things to me, in my eyes it was you who was doing them."

Soon after this, Khamenei ordered the closure of the notorious detention center.

(The photojournalist was one of the cameramen who made Mir Hossein Mousavi’s campaign films, although it is unclear if they played any part in his arrest. He has also worked on a documentary about Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.)

0850 GMT: If the BBC was paying attention, rather than trotting along with the notion of Iran's Nuclear Programme Above All Else (see 0820 GMT), it might have noticed these comments from President Ahmadinejad in his press conference, directed at the opposition movement:

The election and post-election events was victory of Iranian nation's morality against immoralities. The other victory of Iranian nation was success in removing contamination from Revolution.

0840 GMT: Rafsanjani Speaks. A small amendment to the end of today's analysis, "The large presence of Hashemi Rafsanjani has disappeared." The former President said, at a ceremony to commemorate Ayatollah Ali Qoddousi, Iran's prosecutor general who was killed by Mujahedin-e-Khalq Organization (MKO) in 1981:

It is a vital need of the Islamic Republic and establishment to find a way to strengthen national unity and establish peace in the country. In the recent events, the sides should act in a way which will guarantee national unity.

Small amendment, indeed, as the statement just repeats Rafsanjani's cautious, hold-the-line comments that we evaluated in mid-August.

0820 GMT: MediaWatch. The New York Times does another good job this morning, picking up on the Khatami statement and Mousavi letter (though missing Karroubi's moves) that we've highlighted all weekend and in today's analysis. The Washington Post also mention Khatami and Mousavi but hide the impact by tucking them away under a headline on an older story, "Iran Canceling Major Ramadan Events in Wake of Election Protests".

CNN are nowhere to be found, preferring to go with "Chavez Pledges Closer Ties with Iran". Al Jazeera also gets distracted by the Venezuela dimension. Even worse at the BBC, which falls for the Iranian President's "Look Over There!" trick, "Tehran 'ready for global talks'".

0800 GMT: We heard about this story all day yesterday and are keeping a close eye on it (any information would be welcomed):

A group of Revolutionary Guards have resigned from the force according to Hosein Hashemian, an Iranian lawmaker. Mr. Hashemian told Parleman News Website that the unacceptable interference of the Revolutionary Guards in political matters has caused a rift in the force.

The story of resignations, including those of unit commanders, has been about since the start of the crisis, and more than 30 Islamic Revolution Guard Corps members have been arrested.

However, at this point without further confirmation, I am treating this as a bit of "psychological warfare" from the opposition to unsettle the Government. In particular, it is part of the fightback against the recent statements of the Revolutionary Guard's chief commander, General Mohammad Ali Jafari (see our separate analysis today): Hashemian called for Jafari to be detained for his claim that former President Khatami and other reformists were trying to "unseat" the regime.

0655 GMT: We've spent the morning on two special pieces. First and foremost, Josh Shahryar of Anonymous Iran's "The Green Brief" has spent hours translating into English, from the list provided by the Iranian website Norooz,  the names and descriptions of 72 people killed in post-election violence. Given that regime figures like high-ranking member of Parliament Alaeddin Boroujerdi have been trying to deny there is any evidence for the deaths, we think this is a vital document of record.

The second piece is an analysis, after a weekend of opposition statements, of the current political situation and the question of whether the Green Wave is moving towards a high-profile display of resistance on Qods Day, 18 September.

Iran: Green Wave Resurgent?

Iran’s Victims: The 72 People Killed in Post-Election Conflict
Iran Analysis: How Important is the Mousavi Statement?
Text: Mousavi Statement to “Green Path of Hope” (5 September)
The Latest from Iran (6 September): The Reformists Speak

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And so the next wave? After the recent pre-eminence of President Ahmadinejad's quest for authority, backed by threats to quell the opposition challenge, yesterday brought an intriguing combination of Green statements.

All three of the most prominent figures were in play yesterday. Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement to "The Green Path of Hope" has sparked an excellent debate, including on yesterday's updates and on our special analysis, of the significance for the opposition. Mehdi Karroubi pressed his claims of detainee abuse, manoeuvring with the three-person judiciary panel investigating the cases. And Mohammad Khatami struck back vigorously at the regime's efforts to direct --- through injunctions to administration and faculty, through curriculum revisions, and through threats to instutions like Islamic Azad University --- "proper" studies. There were also fightback statements from reformist MPs and clerics against the Revolutionary Guard's efforts to intimidate the opposition with the claims that the Green movement was pursuing "regime change".

As has been the case throughout this crisis, anyone who ventures to predict the fate of this latest wave is either a fool or a visionary far beyond my capabilities. Some markers can be set down, however.

This time, the opposition activity may be moving toward a defining junction in the challenge to Government legitimacy. Publicity through the Internet, flyers, and word-of-mouth is already pointing towards the last Friday of Ramadan, 18 September, which is also Qods (Jerusalem Day). Under the working slogan of "Silence = Consent", activists are looking to mobilise the biggest march since 18 Tir (9 July) and the biggest event since the 40th Day memorial of 30 July, possibly in conjunction with prayers led by Hashemi Rafsanjani.

With a wave of protest which seeks to build over 11 days, the watching brief should be not to expect a major challenge until the 18th but to look, each day, for some step-by-step statements and actions that indicates, "We are here, and we are gathering strength."

And that effort may be aided by an emerging factor on the other side. While noting all the indications of an Ahmadinejad campaign to establish his leadership, supported by the security forces, the President also now has to govern. Little things like the economy, delivery of services, and re-nominating ministers for the posts of Health, Education, and Energy come into play after three months of near-stalemate.

All those little things take time away from the direct contest with the opposition because --- as we noted a few days ago --- the long-term Achilles' heel for the legitimacy of this Government is Iran's economic and social infrastructure. And this far-from-minor diversion opens up some space for the opposition to gather itself.

But, to put in a third (of many) consideration. In all the paragraphs above, indeed in weeks going back to mid-August, the large presence of Hashemi Rafsanjani has disappeared. While Mousavi calls for the "Green Path of Hope", while other protestors try to build up a momentum that (paradoxically) will not collapse with a single setback, while Ahmadinejad tries to rule....

Where will Rafsanjani be on 18 September?

The Latest from Iran (6 September): The Reformists Speak

Iran Analysis: How Important is the Mousavi Statement?
Text: Mousavi Statement to “Green Path of Hope” (5 September)
Middle East/Iran Inside Line: Israel Presses Ahead with Settlements, Tehran Draws Line on Nuke Talks
The Latest from Iran (5 September): A Quiet Phase

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2000 GMT: Psychological Warfare. Unsurprisingly, the Fars News story that Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali is the subject of an arrest warrant, due to a financial dispute with the mobile phone company Irancell, appears to be a bit of fiction to shake up the reformist movement.

The specific claim is that Ali Karroubi is connected with Persian Telecom, which failed to carry out advertising obligations for Irancell. However, Irancell has told Saham News, connected with Karroubi party's Etemade Melli:

Mr. Ali Karroubi does not hold any shares in Persian Telecom....The two companies have a business association in the form of purchasing Irancell products and selling them and therefore no advertisement is done on behalf of Irancell by Persian Telecom. (Translation from Tehran Bureau)

1925 GMT: The Reformist Fightback. A series of reformist members of Parliament and clerics have been striking back at the comments of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps commander, General Ali Mohammad Jafari (see 1730 GMT), all day. The latest is Hojatoleslam Alikhani, a cleric and MP, who has emphasised that the military should not enter political issues.

1920 GMT: The Battle for the Universities (Cont.). Iranian newspapers and the Islamic Republic News Agency report, “The Institute for Humanities and Cultural Studies [has been] tasked by the Supreme Cultural Revolution Council to revise the human sciences curriculum."

The head of the Institute declared, “In our country a large part of the syllabus… is not in line with our Iranian-Islamic culture. This calls for a revision." The syllabus will be revised
“based on the supreme leader’s recommendations.” (Agence France Press has an English summary.)

1730 GMT: Pursuing the Revolutionary Guard. Following up our last update yesterday, The Assembly of Combatant Clerics had responded to the claims of Revolutionary Guard Commander General Mohammad Ali Jafari, alleging that former President Khatami and other prominent reformists have tried to "unseat" the Supreme Leader and Government, by filing a formal complaint against Jafari and Keyhan newspaper for publishing lies and insulting several members of the Assembly.

1725 GMT: Responding to claims by Deputy Head of Judiciary, Ebrahim Raeesi, that he had not presented any evidence of detainee abuse in his meeting with the three-member panel investigating the claims, Mehdi Karroubi has described three documents that he presented.

1715 GMT: Hey, Look Over There! According to Press TV, the Supreme Leader gave visiting Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez a quick international lesson on Sunday: "The US had far greater failures in the Islamic Republic of Iran than in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon and Palestine. A power has been formed in this region which was once regarded by the US as its courtyard."

Surprisingly, the article offered no reference by Ayatollah Khamenei made to Iran's internal situation.

1440 GMT: Regime Goes After Karroubi. Fars News reports that an arrest warrant has been issued for Mehdi Karroubi's son, Ali. The cause of the action is a financial dispute involving one of Iran's largest mobile phone companies, Irancell, for whom Karroubi's company was supposed to sell phone cards. The amount involved is almost $2.5 million.

Nice touch, by the way, for Fars to use this as the illustration for the story:


1305 GMT: Josh Shahryar's "Green Brief" summarising the events of Saturday is now out.

1255 GMT: As the regime pushes its campaign for a "proper" academic sector (see 0740 GMT), former President Khatami held his own discussion with the Islamic Association of University Teachers. He pointedly challenged both the Supreme Leader's call on academics to be the commanders in a war against "Western" soft power and last Friday's prayer address in Tehran for a "non-Western" approach to humanities. Khatami expressed his opposition to those who in the name of fighting western liberalism, were forcing people to follow their path by employing fascism and totalitarianism ideologie and warned the authorities to start rebuilding public trust before all the opportunities are wasted."

1015 GMT: Business as Usual. Deputy head of judiciary Ebrahim Raeesi, who seems to be the regime's "hold-the-line" guy on detentions and prosecutions, declared Saturday that the replacement of Saeed Mortazavi as Tehran prosecutor by Abbas Jafari Dolatabadi will make no difference to the current approach: “The trials will continue and we will do our best so that the rule of law is upheld and justice prevails."

1010 GMT: Methinks He Doth Protest Too Much. Presidential spokesman Aliakbar Javenfekr is a bit upset at the claim, highlighted by Deputy Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Reza Bohanar (see Friday's updates), that up to six of the Ministerial nominees only got approval after the Supreme Leader's intervention of a letter to Parliament: "This was not an order at all but a consultative and friendly view which compelled the lawmakers to work more tolerantly with the government." Bahonar was "insulting the lawmakers who through their independent, conscious, and intelligent vote helped establish a powerful, efficient government".

0850 GMT: The three-member judiciary panel investigating allegations of detainee abuse has said that Mehdi Karroubi has formally submitted the names of four detainees who will appear before the panel if invited.

0810 GMT: We've split off our opening update on the reformist fightback as a separate entry, "How Important is the Mousavi Statement?"

0800 GMT: No, No, It Ain't So. The head of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, is insisting that the claims of 72 deaths in post-election violence are "questionable, given the fact that no detail on the identity of the victims has been present".

We linked Friday to the Farsi-language site Norooz, which has collected the names and descriptions of the dead, but we're hoping to help Mr Boroujerdi later today with an English translation of the list.

0740 GMT: In recent days, we've been updating on the regime's statements linking academia and the "proper" post-election path in Iran, including the Supreme Leader's address to heads of universities and research centres as "commanders" of the fight against foreign "soft power" and the statement in last Friday's prayers in Tehran warning against "Western-style" instruction in humanities.

Today The New York Times has an excellent article by Robert Worth today, "Iran’s Universities Punish Students Who Disputed Vote". Drawing from Iranian website, it not only notes the arrests and summoning for questioning of politically active students but also writes that "a presidential panel has begun an investigation of the humanities curriculums at universities".

The lengthiest passage, however, summarises the academic and political fight around Islamic Azad University:

Significantly, several clerics and high-ranking officials have taken aim at Islamic Azad University, which is based in Tehran and has branches around the country. The university is largely run by the family of former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a powerful moderate and leading opponent of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

“This university must once again be purified,” Ayatollah Muhammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi, the president’s spiritual adviser, said during a meeting with new cabinet members, the Rouydad Web site reported. “This purification must occur at the management level and other levels. You see just how many who do not believe in religion, Islam and God have attended and graduated from this university.”

Another cleric, Muhammad-Reza Babai, called for the new minister of higher education to review Azad’s management charter, during a Friday Prayer sermon in the central city of Kerman. The new minister, Kamran Daneshjoo, has also accused Azad of failing to meet standards.

Iran: Resistance and Music - New Shajarian Song "Language of Fire"

The Latest from Iran (6 September): The Reformists Speak

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We have followed the story of the legendary classical Iranian singer Mohammad Reza Shajarian, who forebade Iranian state media from playing his music after President Ahmadinejad, in his election "victory" statement, called the opposition "dust".

Shajarian has just released a new single and it has been set to video by opposition activists. (Warning: some of the images are graphic.) The lyrics follow the video:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3BLcos6OPI[/youtube]

Lay down your gun,
As I hate this very abnormal shedding of blood.

The gun in your hand speaks the language of fire and iron,
But I, before this fiendish tool,
Have nothing but, the language of the heart,
The heart full to the brim with love for you,
Who are in love with the enemy.
The language of fire and iron is the game of fury and bloodshed.
It is the language of Genghis Khan.
Come, sit down, talk, hear.
Perhaps the light of humanity will get through to your heart, too.
My brother, if you want me, sit down for a brotherly chat.
Lay down your gun,
So that the human-killer leaves your body
How much do you know about the ethics of humanity?
If God has bestowed the soul, why then you take it away?
Why, in the twilight of ignorance,
Do you want to roll and wrap up your brethren in dirt and blood,
The God-given soul?
Let's suppose you are right, my brother, in seeking and telling right and correct things.
But we ought to not seek even righteous things through the fire-spewing gun.
If it once happens that the pangs of conscience bother you,
Then lay down your gun.