The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (18 February)

Evening Update (7 p.m.): As the Israel-Hamas talks on Gaza stall, inevitably Egypt's push for Palestinian "reconciliation" --- if it had any chance of success --- collapses. The Egyptian state news agency MENA is reporting, "Egyptian-sponsored reconciliation talks between Palestinian groups have been delayed to allow for more consultations."

2:30 p.m. Now Here's A Coincidence. On the same day that headlines are made over Syrian President Bashir al-Assad's encouragement of dialogue with the US, the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz features a story alleging that Syria has stepped up production of chemical weapons.

2:20 p.m. And That, For Now, Is That. Hamas has rejected Israel's precondition of a prisoner swap, including Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, for a Gaza settlement.



12:20 p.m. The Israeli daily Ma'ariv claims that chief negotiator Amos Gilad has criticised Prime Minister Ehud Olmert for linking an agreement on Gaza to a prisoner exchange involving soldier Gilad Shalit: "I don't understand what it is that they're trying to do. To insult the Egyptians? We've already insulted them. It's madness. It's simply madness. Egypt has remained almost our last ally here."

11:20 a.m. No Agreement. As we projected, the Israeli Cabinet has set the release of kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit as a precondition for a settlement over Gaza. This now means that the arrangement of a prisoner swap has to be established for any agreement between Tel Aviv and Hamas.

8:20 a.m. An Initiative from Damascus. Syrian leader Bashir al-Assad, following the Gaza conflict and the advent of the Obama Administration, has set out his own vision of "engagement". He has eagerly welcomed the US as the "main arbiter" in the Middle East peace process, saying he expects the US to send an Ambassador to Syria soon.

We hope to analyse this in a separate entry later today. (cross-posted from Latest Alerts in US Foreign Policy thread)

8:15 a.m. A Qassam rocket has landed in southern Israel.

Morning Update (6:45 a.m. GMT; 8:45 a.m Israel/Palestine): I could almost cut-and-paste the update from yesterday. While movement is awaited from Tel Aviv today on the proposed Israel-Gaza cease-fire arrangements, Israeli planes have bombed several tunnels around Rafah as well as a Hamas post in Khan Younis. This is the standard retaliation for the firing of a mortar round into Israel on Tuesday night.

The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (17 February)

Evening Update (8 p.m.): Another obstacle to the Egyptian-brokered talks, this time over Palestinian unity. Reuters claims the "efforts may be doomed by Western powers' reluctance to accept ministers from the Islamist party. Neither the Obama administration nor the European Union is ready to offer more than vague and conditional encouragement to a coalition intended to heal the schism in Palestinian politics."

The BBC are reporting that the UN has protested the removal of unexploded munitions from its warehouses in Gaza. The facilities were being guarded by Hamas personnel, and it is suspected that the organisation has revolved the ordnance.

The UN was waiting for Israel to allow technical support into Gaza to defuse the ordnance (see 6 a.m.)

3:30 p.m. How little political movement has there been today? More than nine hours ago, we wrote, "The question is whether Tel Aviv will accept the [prisoner swap] arrangement, and we won't have any indication of that until Wednesday's Security Cabinet meeting."

This from Agence France Presse:

"We want first to resolve the Shalit issue and then will look into the reopening of crossings and the rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip," [Israeli Prime Minister Ehud] Olmert said. His demand was swiftly rejected by Hamas's exiled leader Khaled Meshaal, who again accused Israel of backtracking on the terms of a proposed long-term truce by linking the lifting of the blockade to the soldier's release.

6:50 a.m. An interesting political development, however, which may have long-term significance in Israeli politics and Israel-Palestine relations. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, still trying to form the next Israeli Government in which she would be Prime Minister, told US Jewish leaders in Jerusalem yesterday that Tel Aviv would have to "give up parts of the Land of Israel" in a settlement.

The comments are in sharp contrast to those of Livni's rival, Benjamin Netanyahu, who insists on "biblical borders" including parts of Gaza and the West Bank.

Livni put her support for the two-state solution in a wider regional perspective: ""If we don't continue with the plan, we will not be able to count on the support of the international community against Iran, Hezbollah, or Hamas."

Morning Update (6 a.m. GMT; 8 a.m. Israel/Palestine): A relatively quiet day yesterday and likely to be so again today. News services are reporting that Hamas is ready to consider prisoner swap, which in fact is not news --- the Gazan leadership have been discussing this for some days. The issue is whether a prisoner swap will be agreed in advance of any settlement of issues such as border crossings, setting up a two-stage process. Hamas wants to keep the strands separate: the release of kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit (pictured) must not be "part of a broader cease-fire agreement with Israel".

No, the question is whether Tel Aviv will accept the arrangement, and we won't have any indication of that until Wednesday's Security Cabinet meeting.

Meanwhile safety, let alone reconstruction, is being held up by continued restrictions on supplies and movement in Gaza:

A team trained to remove and destroy unexploded ordnance has been operating in the Gaza Strip for three weeks, but its work is being held up because Israel has not approved the entry of its equipment nor an area for storing and neutralizing ordnance. For now some of the latter, located by the Palestinian police, is being stored in locations that are dangerously close to population centers in Rafah, Khan Yunis and Gaza City.

One Gazan died and five were wounded yesterday when unexploded munitions were thrown onto a fire melting scrap metal.

The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (16 February)

Related Post: Classic Israel-Palestine Joke of the Day



7 p.m. The Palestinian Authority is borrowing money so it can pay the salaries of its employees in the West Bank. This indicates that the problem for the PA is more serious than Israeli restriction of cash into Gaza, which has limited payments to its employees there; the Authority faces a shortage of funds which could limit its political manoeuvring against Hamas.

The PA employees have been on strike today; Authority representative for social affairs, Mahmoud al-Habbash, said salaries will be paid on Tuesday.

6 p.m. Israeli officials say that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will convene his Security Cabinet on Wednesday to consider a prisoner swap, including kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, as the first act of an Israel-Gaza agreement.

1 p.m. Israel has struck tunnels around Rafah. The death of one Gazan and wounding of five this morning (see 10:15 a.m.) was due to an unexploded munition thrown a fire melting down scrap metal.

11 a.m. From Associated Press: "Israel has taken control of 425 acres of West Bank land, paving the way for the possible construction of 2,500 settlement homes, officials said Monday."

Morning Update (10:15 a.m. GMT; 12:15 p.m. Israel/Palestine): One Gazan has been killed and five wounded in what appears to be an Israeli attack, although the Israeli military says it has no knowledge of an operation. Earlier, two rockets from Gaza landed in southern Israel; they were claimed by the little-known Hezbollah Brigades Palestine.

The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (15 February)

Afternoon Update (4:15 p.m.): Israeli officials say Prime Minister Ehud Olmert (pictured) told Cabinet colleagues on Sunday that kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit must "come home" before there is any opening of border crossings, a central demand by Hamas for an Israel-Gaza ceasefire.

Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, the leader of the Kadima Party, has ruled out a coaliation government with Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud Party, which finished a narrow second in last Tuesday's election. Livni wrote in private note to Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, captured by television cameras, ""I have no intention of being in a unity government headed by Bibi [Netanyahu] --- and don't hint that."

Meanwhile, a clear sign that the Palestinian Authority is in trouble as it tries to maintain some position in Gaza. PA leader Salam Fayyad says that salaries of the Authority's employees in the area are not being paid so the money can be used for aid projects. The PA has been hindered by Israel's restriction on the movement of cash into Gaza, and its workers have now declared a strike.
Morning Update (6 a.m. GMT; 8 a.m. Israel/Palestine): The political tensions between Israel and Turkey, which we have followed closely in recent weeks, escalated yesterday after an Israeli general told an international conference that Turkey should "look in the mirror" after its criticism of Israeli action in Gaza. General Mizrahi pointed to Ankara's treatment of its Kurdish minority and the Turkish occupation of northern Cyprus.

Although the Israeli Defense Forces reprimanded Avi Mizrahi (pictured) for his remarks, the Turkish Foreign Ministry requested "an urgent explanation" from the Israeli Ambassador.

What Israel Lost in Gaza: Talks with Syria, A Relationship with Turkey?

To my knowledge, this story from Ha'aretz on Friday has received little notice outside Israel:

Israel and Syria were about to announce that they would speak directly a week before the fighting in Gaza broke out, a Turkish official said. Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan had spoken with Syrian President Bashar Assad (pictured) during Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's visit to Ankara, and had mediated in crafting a joint statement.

But a few days later, while still awaiting Olmert's approval for the statement, Israel launched Operation Cast Lead in Gaza and Erdogan felt betrayed.

Now it could well be that Turkey is playing up the story to cover Erdogan's very public denunciation of Israeli actions. And it may be the case that, after making political calculations, Damascus will decide that the benefits of coming back to the negotiating table with Israel outweigh or even balance its backing of Hamas. As my colleague Ali Yenidunya has argued, there may be no long-term cost to the Israeli-Turkish alliance.

For the moment, however, let's note that the Israeli Government was so driven to take action in Gaza that it was willing to risk a peace process to ease tensions on its northern border and a strategic relationship with Ankara. It will be some time before we know what motives lay behind this gamble --- regime change? a strike at Hamas as a strike against Tehran? a grand scheme in collusion with the Palestinian Authority, Egypt, and, possibly, Saudi Arabia? Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's attempt to wipe away the stain of Lebanon 2006?

It is almost definite, however, that given the stakes involved, Operation Cast Lead was never just a response to rocket fire.B