Middle East Inside Line: Lieberman's "Ambiguity" on Dubai Assassination, Netanyahu Denies Iran War Plans, and More

Israel FM Lieberman "Ambiguity" on Dubai Assassination: Israel's Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman did not deny Israeli involvement in the killing of Hamas's Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in a Dubai hotel but said that Israel has a "policy of ambiguity" on intelligence matters and there was no proof Mossad was behind the assassination. Lieberman said, "The Mossad was not behind the assassination of Mahmoud el- Mabhouh, but rather [it is] a foreign organization that is trying to frame Israel."

Middle East Special: “Why Chuckles Greeted Hillary Clinton’s Gulf Tour”
Israel-Russia: Situation Now A-OK on Iran?

Netanyahu "No Iran War": Following a meeting with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu --- in response to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's accusation that Israel was "planning a spring or summer war" --- said, "Israel is not planning any sort of war."



Hamas' Tunnel: Haaretz says that Hamas has recently set up 'legal' tunnels, which they use to smuggle merchandise and resources, especially cement and gasoline which have led to an awakening of Gazan factories. The newspaper says Hamas's new policy has hit many "illegal" tunnel owners, with the increase in merchandise leading to sharply decreasing prices and reduced earnings for the "illegal" smuggling industry.

Hezbollah Defiance: Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassen Nasrallah threatened that "if Israel attacks Beirut in the future, Hezbollah will attack Tel Aviv". He said:

If you hit our ports, we will bomb your ports, and if you hit our oil refineries, we will bomb your oil refineries.

It is untrue that we are giving Israel an excuse to launch an aggression on Lebanon. Israel does not need an excuse, and if it needs an excuse it creates one.

Israel has been living in a state of crisis on the strategic level since the July 2006 and Gaza wars. It can neither impose peace based on its conditions nor wage war.

Iran Analysis: Ahmadinejad Stumbles; "Karroubi Wave" Surges

A curious and possibly important Tuesday. It did not promise drama at the start of the day: the Iran stories were mainly of significant but behind-the-headlines sparring on the economic front, while the Western press were distracted by the chest-puffing of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki over "dictatorship" and the nuclear issue.

But then came a series of developments, punctuated by two events: the press conference of the President and the "Karroubi wave".

Iran Document: Fatemeh Karroubi “My Family Will Continue to Stand for the People’s Rights”
Iran: Why The Beating of Mehdi Karroubi’s Son Matters
The Latest from Iran (17 February): Psst, Want to See Something Important?

EA had the chance to live-blog the Ahmadinejad 2-hour show and it proved a revelation. The President was trying to use this occasion to re-assert his authority after his claimed success of "tens of millions" at the pro-Government 22 Bahman rally, putting out his double line on uranium enrichment --- "we can be self-sufficient, but we will also negotiate" --- plus standard rhetoric of Iran's strength and Western weakness.



But the President's plan unravelled as he was challenged time and again on his economic plans --- because of the opposition within the establishment to the budget and subsidy proposals, not to mention concern over the state of Iran's economy, there is plenty of space for journalists to press the topic. And there were even queries over the realities of 22 Bahman and the post-election detentions. (Credit to the brave reporters who brought up the issue. Take note: pro-regime mouthpieces might deny there is any problem, but almost all Iranian journalists will do their jobs with the knowledge that colleagues are in jail and sometimes serving lengthy sentences.)

Then, only five days after 22 Bahman, there was the clearest sign that this conflict isn't over. A new "Karroubi wave" of opposition has surged. Mehdi Karroubi signalled this weekend that he would soon be meeting with Mir Hossein Mousavi to discuss next steps, but in one sense they are already occurring.

While the cleric stands back for the moment, his wife Fatemeh and son Hossein --- using the detention and beating of Karroubi's younger son Ali but going far beyond it --- have pushed the core issues of the detentions, abuses, and injustices now undermining the values and stability of the Islamic Republic. Most importantly, the Karroubis are now doing so in a direct challenge to the Supreme Leader: none of them bother to mention Ahmadinejad and they explicitly dismiss Iran's judiciary as impotent.

Of course, there is a long way to go with this strategy. One will have to watch for the reaction of other Green factions to the challenge, and it is not clear if the high profile given to Karroubi outside Iran is matched inside the country. That said, it has been Karroubi's interventions --- his open letter at the end of July first raising the detainee abuse issue, his appearances at rallies such as Qods Day and at public events such as the Tehran Fair, his recent declaration on "Mr Khamenei" and a "selected rather than elected" President --- that have contributed to surges in protest.

The regime may have thought they had finally blunted Karroubi when they turned him back on 22 Bahman, tear-gassing his entourage and detaining and beating his son. In fact, the statements of Fatemeh and Hossein Karroubi point to the opposite effect. The attack on Ali Karroubi --- whether it was carried out by security forces or "rogue" units, whether it was sanctioned by the Supreme Leader or occurred without his knowledge --- has offered a new platform for the wider campaign. And this time, the Karroubis are not bothering with the President or his officials; they are going straight to the top with the presentation to Ayatollah Khamenei of the issues.

Neither of these developments is likely to see the light of day in Western media coverage. CNN, for example, cannot see beyond "Iranian president warns against tougher sanctions" and "Iran official (Mohammad Javad Larijani): Clinton 'inconsistent'". The New York Times misses the stories entirely, featuring instead yet another weak analysis of Washington's policy on Iran.

But I think shrewd Iran observers would be wise to keep eyes on the economic situation and the resurgence of a Karroubi-supported opposition. EA is not in the habit of making predictions, but if we're right about yesterday, this conflict ain't over.

Iran Document: Fatemeh Karroubi "My Family Will Continue to Stand for the People’s Rights"

The translation of the interview of Mehdi Karroubi's wife Fatemeh with Rooz Online, days after the beating of her son Ali on 22 Bahman:

Mrs. Karroubi, except for publishing two letters, you have remained silent and refrained from making comments regarding the 22nd of Khordad [the Presidential election of 12 June] and the events that ensued. Is there a particular reason for this silence?

Iran: Why The Beating of Mehdi Karroubi’s Son Matters
The Latest from Iran (17 February): Psst, Want to See Something Important?

You are very familiar with my mentality and are fully aware of my positions from the days when you were a reporter covering the 5th parliament, and we were in the minority. I am an individual who believes in the ideals of the Imam and the revolution and I have always made great efforts to ensure that my behaviour and words do not harm the system/regime or revolution in any way what so ever. I did this before the revolution, when we lived a very difficult life for 15 years, spending most of our time behind prison doors, and also after the revolution, when we saw it our religious and moral duty to work effortlessly as part of the executive branch. Unfortunately, because of the recent, bitter events I have preferred to speak less.


Is this silence due to the fact that you wish to create a more stable and secure environment so that in the event that your children and Mr. Karroubi are arrested you at least remain free to pursue their freedom? In other words, has it been a form of division of labor

Absolutely not. You have known me for longer than just two days and you are completely familiar with my mindset from the days of the 5th parliament. Even the letter [to the Supreme Leader] I published three days ago is not just for my own child, but for all the children who are spending time behind prison doors.

You referred to your efforts with regards to the ideals of the Imam and the revolution both before and after the revolution, however, today, your husband is referred to by the current regime as one of the leaders of the opposition. They claim that Mr. Karroubi is connected to Israel and the United States and takes his orders from them. How does it make you feel when you have given your life to the revolution and you are now faced with such issues?

These comments and claims are so meaningless and empty that I will neither respond to them nor put any emphasis on them. The gentlemen who take part in these meaningless discussions, will have to respond to God, and realize that vilification and scorning without presenting any evidence what so ever, is meaningless. I am certain that Mr. Karroubi believes in the ideals of the revolution and as such I pay no attention to these empty claims. These claims have no effect on our pursuit of people’s rights and the ideals of the revolution. My family will continue to stand for the people’s rights and the ideals of the revolution and we will not compromise. I know my husband well. I also know my children. If they have any evidence of these socalled claims, I ask that they put them forward.

Prior to publishing this letter, you spoke of the lack of security with regards to your family and stated that you will hold the regime responsible for anything that happens to them. What led you to write such a letter and do you still feel the same level of fear for your family?

The circumstances at the time were very dire and I wanted to release a statement so that if something were to happen to me or my family, they would not come back later and say that they need to hold meetings and investigate the matter, etc. Everything was very clear. Mr. [Hossein] Mozafar, the former Minister of Education, had commented on the IRIB’s Channel 2 that we leave the heads of the opposition in the hands of the people and Mr. [Alaeddin] Boroujerdi, a member of the Parliament had made similar remarks that had been published in the newspapers. These comments insinuated that if something were to happen to us it was because the people had killed us. As such, I was forced to publish a clear statement and warn everyone so the people of Iran would be aware. Today, our security circumstances are slightly better. We are not under as much pressure and feel less threatened.

Is it fair to say that the state of your security and welfare has shifted? One of your sons was summoned, while the other based on the letter published by yourself was threatened to be raped. Not to mention, Mr. Karroubi is also constantly threatened by the aggressive behavior of the security forces. In its essence, your second letter provides an insight into the lack of security experienced by your family. Is that true?

I wrote the letter as a mother and only for one reason because I am extremely worried about the children of our nation and the mothers whose children have been arrested and imprisoned. I wrote this letter with the hope to prevent these arrests. The night my son came back home, I was intensely disturbed by the events that occurred and could not believe how easy it was for them to tell Ali how lucky he was and that if he had stayed a few more hours, his dead body would have been delivered to his family!

Tehran’s prosecutor, however, denied Ali’s arrest yesterday and said that after much investigation it has been concluded that he was not arrested by any government body, requesting that Ali provide proof of his arrest.

I am very sorry to hear that Tehran’s prosecutor has said such a thing, providing his opinion so hastily and without a thorough investigation into the matter. However, the prosecutor is correct when he states that Ali was arrested on the 22nd Bahman by police forces and his mobile phone is with them as we speak. They actually called this afternoon and asked that Ali come by to pick up his mobile. In addition to releasing Ali from the police station late in the evening, while he was there they made him sign a commitment letter that he would not give any interviews regarding this manner upon his release. I must say that in this regard, the prosecutor is completely right, as the judiciary never issued an official warrant for Ali’s arrest rather, they arrested Ali on the night when we were celebrating our most important national victory. You are aware of the rest of the issues related to this matter as I have spoken at length about them in my letter.

Mrs. Karroubi, what do you think is the solution is for the current crisis our country is facing, and in your opinion what should be done to resolve it?

I am hopeful that the leaders of our country, our spiritual leader and those in charge of the government have the foresight to reflect upon their tactics and ways and that they will have a dialogue and create an exchange with those sympathetic to the revolution who have worked so hard for so many years on behalf of the revolution and the country, so that they can find a solution to end this current situation.

But Mr. Karroubi has said that neither the leaders of the Green movement, nor the current regime are ready to negotiate and compromise.

We must see what is meant by negotiation and compromise and whether this negotiation benefits the people or not. In my opinion, the interests of our country and our people’s rights are very important. This discussion is by no means a personal one, and no matter what we do, we must put the country’s interests and the people’s rights first and foremost and move forward only with these two things in mind.

I’m going to ask you directly, Mrs. Karroubi, is there a possibility of potential negotiation by Mr. Karroubi, with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in which he would compromise and accept Mr. Ahmadinejad as the president of Iran?

This would not be possible in any way, shape or form. We have been living together for 47 years and I know him very well. I know that this would be impossible and would never happen. An important part of the current crisis and the country’s problems are a direct result of Mr. Ahmadinejad’s behavior, deeds and mismanagement. Many of our economic and national security challenges are also a direct result of how he has managed the country. Our constitution was designed to address exactly these type of issues and we only ask that the constitution be followed, because if it is, we have one of the most advanced constitutions in the world.

Do you mean to say that you can imagine the impeachment of Ahmadinejad by the parliament?

Yes, our constitution takes into consideration such a possibility and I am hopeful that if our advanced constitutional laws are utilized to their fullest capacity that this issue will be addressed.

Mrs. Karroubi, in the past eight months we have witnessed the arrests of may newspaper reporters and political activists. Can you please let us know if these arrests will resolve any of the issues facing the Islamic Republic?

These arrests will never benefit the Islamic Republic. All those arrested care deeply about their country. If they didn’t care, they would have left the country. Despite all the limitations they have decided to remain in Iran. Our constitution supports the freedom of speech and none of these individuals have said or wanted anything that is against our constitution. Arresting people will not solve any problems. The challenges facing our society and country will not be resolved by arresting individuals. If anything we must resolve these problems judiciously and with foresight. I am very saddened, particularly when female journalists and political activists are arrested and I hope that they will all be released as soon as possible. I recall when I was a member of The Committee for the Freedom of Press that we always sought to minimize the number of women arrested and sent to prison. At the time the publications had more female editors than newspapers did.

Mrs. Karroubi, as my last question I would like to ask you to what degree and how far are you and your family willing to stand up for the people’s rights? Do the pressures on your children and Mr. Karroubi not influence this matter?

I am not a newcomer to politics and these difficulties are not new to me. I was 15 years old when I entered Mr. Karroubi’s house. It was the start of our struggles for the Imam and until this day we have lived through many trials and tribulations. In the previous regime, we faced the constant stress and concerns of arrests by the Savak [secret police]. Now that the children have grown up, because of the recent events I have once again been under a lot of stress. But my worries and stress are not for my husband and children but for my country, my people and the revolution. Some people might think that I say these things because I am being interviewed, but that is not true. I worry for the security of our people. If our people live in a secure environment, my family and I will have security too. I would like to reiterate that the more pressure they exert on us, the more determined me and my family will be.

The Latest from Iran (16 February): Un-Diplomatic Declarations

1955 GMT: The lawyer for 21-year-old Amir Reza Arefi says his client has been sentenced to death for "mohareb" (war against God). Arefi was arrested in April 2009, before the June election.

1945 GMT: Keeping Rafsanjani in His Box. An EA correspondent puts together an important story: with the 7th general assembly of the Assembly of Experts due next week, probably on Tuesday and Wednesday, new attacks have been launched upon Hashemi Rafsanjani, the head of the Assembly.

A statement from a number of clerics at Qom declares that, due to the performance of Hashemi Rafsanjani in the past few months, he is not suitable to continue in his post. And Fars News, criticising Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi for not returning to Iran after five months abroad, asserts that his settling in London is "strange and suspicious".

NEW Iran Special: Live-Blogging Ahmadinejad Press Conference (16 February)
NEW Iran: Why The Beating of Mehdi Karroubi’s Son Matters
NEW Iran Document: The 10-Demand Declaration of 4 Labour Unions
NEW Iran Document: Shadi Sadr at the UN on Abuse, Justice, and Rights (12 February)
Latest Iran Video: US Analysis (Gary Sick) v. Overreaction (Stephens, Haass)
Iran: The IHRDC Report on Violence and Suppression of Dissent
Iran: Human Rights Watch Report on Post-Election Abuses (11 February)
The Latest from Iran (15 February): Withstanding Abuse

1715 GMT: The Karroubi Wave. It appears that the Karroubi family --- not just Mehdi Karroubi, but the family --- are ready to propel the next wave of opposition to the Government and regime. In addition to Fatemeh Karroubi's interview (1600 GMT), Mehdi Karroubi's son Hossein has spoken out to Radio Zamaneh.


Hossein Karroubi says that his brother Ali was detained, while in the Karroubi entourage on 22 Bahman, by police and then handed to plainsclothesmen, who took him to the Amir-ol-momenin Mosque, mentioned in the letter written by his mother Fatemeh to the Supreme Leader. (The reason why Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi could make his statement that he did not issue an arrest warrant for Ali Karroubi, implying the entire story has been fabricated, is because there was none; Ali Karroubi was simply taken away.)

After his beating, Ali Karroubi was asked by police to sign a declaration that he was not abused in detention. He replied, "How can I sign such a declaration when my skull in fractured and my body is bruised?" So he wask asked to sign that he was not beaten by the police.

Hossein Karroubi says there will be no complaint lodged with the Judiciary as it no longer has power to deal with these matter; not does the Tehran Prosecutor General have any authority, or the courage, to deal with the “lebas shakhsis" (plainclothes operatives) who are operating with complete impunity.

And here's the stinger in Hossein Karroubi's tale: he argues that the plainclothes forces are supported from "very high up" (presumably meaning Ayatollah Khamenei or his office). This is why his mother wrote to the Supreme Leader, because --- as with the Kahrizak Prison scandal --- it is only he who could order a proper investigation into such matters.

More on this in an analysis on Wednesday....

1645 GMT: Releases for the Martyrs? Rahe-Sabz writes that the children of martyrs, such as Ali Motahhari (the son of Ayatollah Morteza Motahhari), have demanded release of political activists at a meeting with Iran's head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani. The report claims that Larijani declared there will be several releases, on low bail, to come.

1640 GMT: The Detention Centres of 22 Bahman. Peyke Iran reports that a former textile company near Azadi Square was used as a holding area for detainees last Thursday, keeping 20 women and 50 men before they were transported to Evin Prison. Amir-ol-momenin Mosque -- significantly the claimed location of the beating of Ali Karroubi --- was also used on 22 Bahman.

1635 GMT: The Economic Challenge. Another piece of evidence to support the pressing questions that Ahmadinejad weakly fielded at today's press conference (see 1455 GMT). The Iranian Labor News Agency says that the denial of industry minister Ali Akbar Mehrabian --- difficulties in the economy will be overcome --- will make no difference to the hardships of companies who are dying faster than they can be created: "Officials should take care today, tomorrow it will be much too late."

1625 GMT: Author and film critic Ardavan Tarakameh has been released on $30,000 bail after 50 days in detention. Mohammad Moin, the son of former Presidential candidate Mostafa Moin, has also been released on bail.

In contrast, economics professor and Mir Hossein Mousavi advisor Ali Arabmazar has not been charged after 50 days in prison.

1620 GMT: Sequel to "A Strange Shooting" (see 1235 GMT). Tabnak reports that the shooting around the car of Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, the former Speaker of Parliament, happened when security forces mistook the vehicle for one used by drug smugglers. When it failed to stop they fired warning shots in the air.

1615 GMT: Diversions. Follow-up on the Ahmadinejad press conference --- Reuters has now decided that the story is the President's hope that the case of the three arrested US citizens, detained while walking in northern Iran, may soon be resolved.

1600 GMT: The Karroubi Challenge. Following up on Mr Verde's analysis of the significance of the beating of Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali....

Fatemeh Karroubi, wife of Mehdi and mother of Ali, has told Rooz Online has spoken about the incident while declaring, “[We] will not under any circumstances back down on the rights of the Iranian people....The letter that I published a few days ago was not only for my own child, but for the children who are in prison. I wrote it with the hope that these things wouldn’t occur again.”

She recalled, “On the night that my [detained] son returned home, I was in shock and could not believe that they could say to Ali: ‘You were lucky, if you had stayed here for a couple more hours, instead of you we would be handing your corpse over [to your family].” Ali Karroubi had been forced to sign a statement saying that he would not give any interviews following his release.

Asked about the possibility of negotiating a settlement with the Government, Fatemeh Karroubi replied:

In my opinion, the interests of the country and demands and rights of the people are very important. This is not at all personal. Such a thing [a settlement] is not in any way possible....

I am stressed. But my concern and stress is neither for my husband nor for my children, but for the country, the revolution and the people of my country. Let me say this clearly, the more pressure there is, the more determined my family and I will be.

1455 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Two-Hour Stumble. The "Western" media is already reducing the President's press conference to the line-item of Tehran's defiance of the West: "Iran says it would respond to any new sanctions" (Reuters); "Iran says the world "will regret" sanctions" (BBC); "Iranian president warns against tougher sanctions" (CNN).

That's a shame, because the nuclear issue was about the only one on which Ahmadinejad was secure during his lengthy appearance. Indeed, the Government's strategy continues to be to use the negotiations with the West to show both strength and legitimacy; thus Press TV walks hand-in-hand with their Western counterparts, "Iran warns powers will 'regret' sanctions response".

The big story should be Ahmadinejad's internal difficulties. He came out fighting over the challenge to his right-hand man, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, but he floundered badly on the economic issues. It is significant that the majority of questions from Iran's journalists, as opposed to foreign correspondents, were on the economy, and Ahmadinejad was close to incapable of handling challenges over Iran's economic growth, investment plans, unemployment and inflation figures, and even his budget. He was caught out at times by a lack of basic information, and at one point he simply made up a statistic for Iran's Gross Domestic Product.

Nor did Ahmadinejad, perhaps surprisingly, get away on post-election problems, despite his attempt to parade "tens of millions" of Iranians who supported him on 11 February. He evaded, weakly, a couple of questions about detentions before lamenting, "Of course we are sorry" that anyone has been arrested. Time and time again, he fell back on denunciations of the "ugly face" of the US, the regional intrigues of Western powers, and proclamations of their weakness vs. Iran's strength.

We'll watch for reactions but, for all Ahmadinejad's bluster and stamina, this does not look like the post-22 Bahman stamp of authority he was seeking.

1450 GMT: We have moved the live-blog of the Ahmadinejad press conference to a separate entry. A snap analysis follows in a few minutes.

1300 GMT: Journalist Sam Mahmoudi Sarabi has been released on $300,000 bail after 44 days in detention, 30 of which were in solitary confinement.

1235 GMT: A Strange "Shooting". We break from Mahmoud and the Prophets for an unusual story. Iranian media is reporting that shots were fired at a car carrying Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, former Speaker of Parliament, as it was travelling to Shiraz. Some official accounts say the shots were fired by mistake by the police, but the "conservative" Jahan News thinks there might have been foul play.

1210 GMT: On the Economic Front. Yesterday we noted the extensive comments of Mohammad Parsa of Iran's electricity syndicate on the difficulties in the industry, with 900,000 workers on the verge of dismissal and a Government debt of 5 billion toman ($5.06 million) to the electricity providers. Aftab News now also carries the interview.

1200 GMT: No White Smoke Update. At his press conference with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki limited his remarks on uranium enrichment talks to the general statement, "We have informed our Turkish friends about the latest developments on Iran's peaceful nuclear case. While we are continuing our (nuclear) activities we will consider any new idea or proposal, either given directly or indirectly via the agency (International Atomic Energy Agency)." Mottaki also downplayed Turkey's role, saying Ankara was "not a mediator but a major part in constant consultations for restoring peace and calm in the region".

So, while we cannot know if there were advances in the private Mottaki-Davutoglu talks, Tehran's public position is to stretch out the negotiations. Another sign of the low-key Iran approach is that Press TV's website still has no reference to the nuclear issue from this morning's conference.

1030 GMT: No White Smoke. Press TV's broadcast summary of the press conference of Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki and his Turkish counterpart, Ahmet Davutoglu, makes no reference to uranium enrichment. There are only general platitudes about the two countries being "keys to regional stability" and the encouragement of bilateral trade relations.

0855 GMT: Mr Verde checks in with an analysis of the significance of the alleged beating of Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali.

0845 GMT: No, You're the Dictatorship. If we must continue with this story....

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has responded to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's claim that Iran is moving towards "military dictatorship" (see 0710 GMT): "They themselves are involved in a sort of military dictatorship and have practically ignored the realities and the truths in the region. America has a wrong attitude toward the issues in the Middle East and it is the continuation of their past wrong policies."

0755 GMT: A Moving Campaign. Iranian-American Youth (IAY) and Justice Through Music (JTM) will be carrying out a mobile billboard advertising campaign in Washington, D.C. today. Messages on the billboards will try to raise awareness of the internal situation and foster support for the opposition movement.

0740 GMT: Wayward Analysis. Yesterday's un-diplomatic declarations are accompanied by the superficial analysis of The New York Times this morning, "US Encounters Limits of Iran Engagement Policy". This piece builds from this episode:

Gen. James L. Jones, President Obama’s national security adviser, and Manouchehr Mottaki, the Iranian foreign minister, were in the same place at the same time, attending a high-level security conference in Munich with a number of high-ranking officials from around the world. And yet the two made no plans to meet with each other.

This is a very large herring because US-Iranian discussions would not take place between these senior advisors. (Mottaki's visit to Munich was made at the last minute and primarily so he could indicate that Iran might be open to a "swap" of uranium outside the country.) Instead, as in Geneva last autumn, talks would be held formally between the officials handling the nuclear brief or, behind the scales, between lower-level members of the diplomatic staff. The article has no recognition, for example, that quiet chats probably continue over areas of common interest such as Iraq and Afghanistan. And it never considers third-party brokers such as Turkey.

Put bluntly, The Times complements posturing such as Hillary Clinton's declaration by operating under the erroneous assumption that contacts between the US and Iran have been suspended.

0730 GMT: Top Journalism Award for Neda's Filmers. A George Polk Award, one of the top prizes in US journalism, has been given to the unnamed people who filmed the death of Neda Agha Soltan, the 26-year-old woman who died from a Basij gunshot during the 20 June demonstrations. The panel declared, "This award celebrates the fact that, in today's world, a brave bystander with a cell phone camera can use video-sharing and social networking sites to deliver news."

0725 GMT: Pressing for Rights. We have posted the text of human rights lawyer Shadi Sadr's address to the United Nations last Friday: "In addition to the numerous examples of human rights that are systematically violated...during the post-election events, basic and fundamental human rights remain in serious peril, such as equality of persons before the law, the right to peaceful assembly, the rights of political prisoners, and the rights of human rights defenders and civil society activists."

0710 GMT: With few public moves in Iran over the post-election conflict on Monday, most attention was on diplomatic diversions outside the country. Foremost amongst these was Hillary Clinton's apparently impromptu remark, at a Town Hall meeting in Qatar, that Iran was becoming a "military dictatorship".

Clinton's remark is less significant as an analysis of developments in Tehran than as a possible pointer of a shift in Washington's policy. However, if you go below the surface, there are only questions. With Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in Iran today in an attempt to broker a deal on uranium enrichment (and he is unlikely to be there without the endorsement of Washington), Clinton's comment appears to be either a dissonant line or a rather clumsy attempt to warn the Iranians into accepting the bargain as well as justifying sanctions against the Republican Guard if the uranium deal is not agreed.

And there was more muddle in Tel Aviv, where the top US military commander, Admiral Mike Mullen, was discussing regional matters with Israeli counterparts and ministers. His refusal to rule out any option, while at the same time warning clearly of adverse consequences if there was an airstrike on Iran, meant that his statement could be seized by both proponents and opponents of military action. (Behind the public posture, I am almost certain that Washington has again warned Israel off any operations, but there is the possibility that the US is offering the clause, "In the future, however....")

If there was a notable setpiece on the international front on Monday, it came in Geneva, where the US, Britain, and France led the effort at the UN Human Rights Council to castigate Iran's post-election abuses. Of course, Tehran responded --- through Iranian High Council for Human Rights SecretaryGeneral Mohammad Javad Larijani --- that all was well and Iran was advancing social rights for groups like women and children. The episode indicated, however, that Washington and its allies will match any "engagement" with public pressure, and not only on the nuclear issue.

Inside Iran, the more important tension was over President Ahmadinejad's economic plans. The high-profile political challenge of the "conservatives" was complemented by a series of statements from members of Parliament criticising part or all of the Ahmadinejad budget. No signs yet that the conservatives will return to their more dramatic confrontation over the post-elections abuses, calling for the head of Ahmadinejad aide Saeed Mortazavi, but it is evident that the President's 22 Bahman performance has not quelled opposition.

Outside the establishment, Monday was notable for signs of labour activism. While a report of planned civil disobedience by the Tehran Bus Workers Union turned out to be untrue, the union joined three others in putting forth a public statement of ten demands (see separate entry).

The Latest from Iran (15 February): Withstanding Abuse

2300 GMT: Urgent Correction on the Labour Front. Earlier today (1600 GMT) Tehran Bureau reported that the Tehran Bus Workers had called for civil disobedience over the case of jailed activist Mansur Osanloo. Tonight Iran Labour Report has issued an effective retraction of the story:

On February 12, a statement appeared on various Iranian websites, including Balatarin which is one of the largest Persian-speaking community websites in the world, in the form of a poster. The poster called for solidarity with the imprisoned leader of Tehran’s bus drivers union, Mansoor Osanloo, through acts of civil disobedience beginning on March 4 around Tehran’s Valiasr square. The statement purported to be an offcial statement of the union (formally known as the Syndicate of Vahed Company Workers of Tehran and Environs). Subsequently, in an article for the popular web journal Tehran Bureau, a staff member at Iran Labor Report wrote an analysis of the union statement as it had appeared on the various websites.

It now appears that the poster-statement was not authentic and that the union’s leadership had not issued the statement. Moreover, the provenance of the statement is still not clear. The union had apparently not published an official disclaimer earlier on due to the recent disuptions with internet use in Iran. Subsequent to this, the union requested that the inauthenticity of the statement be made public and that henceforth no reference would be made of it.

NEW Latest Iran Video: US Analysis (Gary Sick) v. Overreaction (Stephens, Haass)
NEW Iran: The IHRDC Report on Violence and Suppression of Dissent
NEW Iran: Human Rights Watch Report on Post-Election Abuses (11 February)
Iran Analysis: What Now for the Green Movement?
The Latest from Iran (14 February): Step by Step

2145 GMT: Labour Rights. The joint statement of three Iranian unions --- the Syndicate of Tehran Bus Workers, the Syndicate of Haft Tapeh Sugar Cane Company, and The Free Union of Workers in Iran --- to the United Nations Human Rights Council has been posted:

[Workers'] most urgent and most basic demands at the present time are:


- Abolishment of executions, immediate and unconditional release of labour activists and all other social movements activists from jails;
- Rescinding all charges against labour movement arrestees;
- Immediate and unconditional freedom in formation of labour unions, without the need to have permission from managements, compliance with all labour related international conventions, eradication of all non-labour establishments from working environments, and to prosecute the suppressors and deniers of workers’ human rights;
- Unconditional rights to strike, protest, and freedom of speech;
- Complete equality between men and women at work and in all other aspects of social, economical and family lives;
- Total abolishment of child labour and providing educational and medical environment for all children.

2050 GMT: Miss-the-Point Story of the Day. A lot of trees are dying for battling news items on the Iran nuclear front: "Iran Says Studying New Nuclear Fuel Deal" v. "U.S. denies Iran given new fuel swap proposal".

Let's save the trees. Turkish Foreign Ahmet Davutoglu will be in Iran tomorrow to discuss a "swap" of 20 percent uranium, outside Iran, for Tehran's 3.5 percent stock (see 1225 GMT). "New" or "not new" makes no difference to that central discussion.

2008 GMT: On the Economic Front. Mohammad Parsa, a member of the electricity syndicate, has declared that 900,000 workers of electricity companies are on the verge of dismissal as the Government 5 billion toman ($5.06 million) to the electricity industry. Parsa says the industry is operating on an emergency basis with managers fleeing their posts.

2005 GMT: Another Ashura Death. Peyke Iran has identified Mehdi Farhadi Rad from south Tehran as the victim of an attack by police and plainclothes officers, shot in the head and chest.

2000 GMT: The Radio Farda "Spy Ring". Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi has declared that, of eight people arrested as agents for the US Government-sponsored Radio Farda, only one is a journalist, who has confessed his "relationship to foreign elements". The other detainees are his relatives.

1940 GMT: Another Battle for Ahmadinejad. Back from an academic break to find a series of challenges to the President over his budget. Mostafa Kavakebian of the Democracy Party has declared that he will not accept a proposal that needs "fundamental changes": government spending is too high, but there are no funds for unemployed youth and the payment of civil servants is not considered.

Abbas Ali Noura has complained that the financial relationship between Iran's national oil company and the Government is not clear and last year's budget was not fully spent on development of oil industry (a hint at misplaced funds?). Abbas Rajayi adds that Ahmadinejad has not kept promises on funding for modernisation of water supply for agriculture. Ali Akbar Oulia has denounced "one of the weakest and most debatable budgets", with over-optimistic projections on Government income and inflation.

1600 GMT: Tehran Bureau reports that the Tehran Bus Workers Union, in a statement on 12 February, has aligned itself with the Green Movement. The Union also declared, "Starting March 6, We the Workers of Vahed Company Will Wage Acts of Civil Disobedience (or white strike) to Protest the Condition of (labour activist) Mansoor Osanloo in Prison. We Appeal to the Iranian People and to the Democratic Green Movement--of which we consider ourselves a small part--to join us by creating a deliberate traffic jam in all directions leading to Vali-e Asr Square."

1550 GMT: Iranian media is reporting that President Ahmadinejad is going to fire his Minister of Oil for reporting reducing production.

1545 GMT: The Iranian Students News Agency reports that Mohsen Aminzadeh, the reformist leader sentenced to six years in prison, has been released on $700,000 bail during his appeal.

1335 GMT: We've posted video of contrasting analyses from the US, with Gary Sick's thorough consideration of the Iranian political situation offset by generalisation and overreaction from Richard Haass and Bret Stephens.

1230 GMT: Children's rights activist Mohsen Amrolalayi, arrested on 23 January, is still in solitary confinement in Evin Prison.

1225 GMT: One to Watch. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu will hold talks with Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, on Tuesday over uranium enrichment issue.

What is not noted in the Agence France Presse article is that Davutoglu may have already met President Ahmadinejad's advisor Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai: both have been in Qatar over the weekend.

1215 GMT: The UN Human Rights Meeting on Iran. A few hours of diplomatic theatre in the UN Human Rights Council this morning, as Britain, France, and the US put forward a co-ordinated attack on Iran's treatment of post-election protest. French Ambassador Jean Baptiste Mattei asserted:

The authorities are waging bloody repression against their own people, who are peacefully claiming their rights. France recommends that Iran accept the creation of a credible and independent international inquiry mechanism to shed light on these violations.

The US and British Ambassador made similar statements and called on Iran to allows visits by the United Nations investigator on torture and other human rights experts.

Supported by Cuba, Syria, and Venezuela, Iran judiciary official Mohammad Javad Larijani declared,"With the victory of the Islamic revolution, the situation of human rights has consistently been used as a political tool to apply pressure against us and to advance certain ulterior political motives by some specific Western countries."

Larijani claims steps to improve women's access to education, health, and social status, to protect children and religious minorities, and to combat the tradition of forced marriages: "The Iranian society is a successful model of brotherly and amicable coexistence."

1200 GMT: Not-So-Subtle Propaganda of the Day. Our inset photograph is a reproduction of the lead image --- an altered picture of Mehdi Karroubi --- in today's Javan, which is close to the Revolutionary Guard.



1025 GMT: Nothing to Do With Us. Tehran's Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has denied that Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali was arrested on 22 Bahman.

Which begs the follow-up question, "So did Ali Karroubi beat himself up?"

0940 GMT: Detaining the Writers: "Arshama3's Blog" updates our list of journalists held in Iran's prisons, covering 66 cases. A 67th named can be added: Na’imeh Doostdar of Jam-e-Jam and Hamshahri was arrested on 6 February.

One piece of good news: writer Alireza Saghafi was released yesterday.

0925 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz reports that there is still no number of those detained on 22 Bahman. Some detainees have been allowed to have short phone calls with families.

0910 GMT: Who is the Foe? That is the question asked by Ebrahim Nabavi, who argues that the true opposition to the Green movement is not Ahmadinejad, the Supreme Leader, the Revolutionary Guard, the Basiji, the plainclothes men, Western imperialism, or British-directed mullahs. The enemies are ignorance, poverty, tyranny, and injustice are the Green's real foes.

Nabavi refers to Mohsen Rouholamini, who died at Kahrizak Prison last summer, in predicting that there are many more like him within the regime who long for freedom. He emphasises that the Green movement wants freedom for the soldier who opposes it as well as for people who are forced to comply with the regime for financial reasons.

0905 GMT: The German-based Akhbar-e-Rooz has taken aim at the Green Movement. Two articles are notable: an opinion piece takes aim at the Green website Rah-e-Sabz for attacking those "who did not vote for Mousavi". This follows an editorial complaining about the Green movement's indifference to trade unions, including the failure to challenge the transfer of the labour activist Mansur Osanloo to solitary confinement.

(Apologies that, in processing information this morning, I confused this with the latest from Khabar Online, mistakenly attributing the attack on the Greens to the pro-Larijani website.)

0900 GMT: The Spirit of 22 Bahman. The reformist Association of Combatant Clergy has issued a statement thanking Greens for their involvement in last Thursday's rallies and condemning Iranian authorities for "hijacking" their efforts.

0850 GMT: Well, This Will Break the Silence. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has pronounced this morning in a speech to students in Qatar, "Iran is moving toward a military dictatorship. That is our view."

Really? No President with authority? No Supreme Leader? I suspect Clinton may have put this line not only as part of the tactic of united Arab countries against the Iran "threat" but to justify the sanctions against the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps. Still (and I haven't seen the context of the full speech, only the reports), the declaration seems a bit simplistic, even for public spin.

0720 GMT: A slowish day on the political front, as Iran moves towards the end of its holidays for the anniversary of the Revolution. The only ripple is Iranian state media's promotion of President Ahmadinejad's declaration, in an interview with a Russian magazine:

Iran can defend itself without nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons are of no use anymore and have no place in current international equations. Could the Soviet Union's stockpile of nuclear weapons prevent its collapse? Have they been of any assistance to the US military in its wars against Afghanistan and Iraq? Atomic bombs couldn't secure a victory for the Zionist regime in the Lebanon and Gaza wars.

The statement might be read in the context of an Ahmadinejad reassurance to the "West" that Iran will not pursue a military nuclear programme and thus as a signal that he wants to maintain discussions on uranium enrichment.

In the meantime, however, we are focusing on human rights this morning with two reports: the Human Rights Watch findings on detentions, abuse, and torture and a study by the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center of post-election suppression of dissent.