The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (16 January)

Later Updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (17 January)
Latest post: Israeli Newspaper Details Israel’s Use of Illegal Weapons in Gaza
Latest post: Gaza --- It’s Not Necessarily All About Tehran

Late evening update (2 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): Relatively quiet on all fronts the last few hours. A hectic diplomatic day but a comparatively quiet military day, as Israeli troops battled with "at least 20 armed gunmen" Friday and five civilians were wounded when 15 rockets were fired into southern Israel.

Everyone is drawing breath, but it will pick up in several hours. Saturday is the day that Israel makes its move and puts all other actors on the spot, as the Cabinet declares a unilateral ceasefire. It is a giant snub to "world opinion", saying that Tel Aviv doesn't need an international agreement to get its political and military objectives. Gaza will still be blockaded, Israel will remain freedom of action to send military forces in whenever it wants, and Hamas will go unrecognised.

The responses of other countries and groups to this move will be critical. Is Egypt's Hosni Mubarak really prepared to be tied at the hip to Israel, in pursuit of the overthrow of Hamas, even though it may damage Cairo's position in the Arab world and even threaten internal instability? Will Saudi Arabia continue to stall on meaningful cease-fire efforts or, in light of growing internal concern with the Government position, will it shift towards other Gulf States who are demanding support of Hamas and unequivocal condemnation of Israel? Can Syria and Iran press their diplomatic initiative in forging a new bloc, and can Khaled Meshaall benefit?

And what in the world is Barack Obama doing? Did his people know of the Israeli plans, given Tzipi Livni's presence in Washington today, and tacitly approve them? Or have they sat so far back that they are trailing behind these developments?

No answers, just a lot of questions. But my speculation is that tomorrow will send a re-alignment of loyalties and objectives that ensures the political battle over Gaza enters a new phase.



10:15 p.m. Al Jazeera English declares Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal as "big diplomatic victor" with appearance at Qatar summit, especially with refusal of Palestianian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas to attend.

9:45 p.m. A piece of significant news lost in the diplomatic shuffle: Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for Israel to be blocked from the United Nations today.

Erdogan's declaration is not only a clear sign of the deterioration in the historically close Turkish-Israeli relationship. It is also a marker of Ankara's move towards Syria and Iran as the battlelines shape up amongst Arab states over the Gaza conflict and its aftermath.

8:30 p.m. Israel finally plays its hand: tomorrow, the Cabinet will hold a rare meeting on the Sabbath so it can vote on a unilateral ceasefire. This means Tel Aviv could declare "victory" without having to recognise Hamas. Instead of reaching a confirmed agreement on control of Gaza's borders, Israel will rely on arrangements with the United States --- including today's memorandum of understanding to block arms shipments to Hamas --- and Egypt to achieve its objectives.

This means that there may be no further military action, but there is no meaningful political settlement. The economic blockade will remain. Israel and Egypt, hoping for support from Washington, will continue to work for the re-installation of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza. Indeed, it has been already been announced that Egypt is "considering whether to organize a summit in the near future between Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas".

Since the issue is no longer whether Hamas agrees to a ceasefire, attention will turn to whether the Obama Administration supports this new Israeli manoeuvre to isolate and undermine Hamas. Equally important, the split in the Arab world may be exposed. Which way will Arab countries move? Will they support an Egypt-Israel alliance or will they take a firm line against Tel Aviv and in support of the Gazan leadership?

6:30 p.m. CNN correspondent Ben Wedeman finally gets into southern Gaza: how much local support do you think there will be for arrangements stage-managed by Cairo and Washington?

We toured an area near the border with Egypt where tunnels had been dug to get supplies into Gaza. There we saw dozens and dozens of houses completely destroyed, huge craters everywhere.

Earlier, when we caught the last bus from Egypt into Gaza, we spoke to Palestinian passengers, most of whom said they had been arrested in Egypt and abused by police before being deported. Their bitterness toward Egypt, particularly its president, Hosni Mubarak, and other Arab leaders over their perceived failure to provide support was echoed among others we spoke to.

This was matched by anger toward the United States, because most people know it supplies Israel with the warplanes bombarding them.

5:42 p.m. US and Israel sign deal to curb arms smuggling to Hamas, with Condoleezza Rice repeating the mantra that it will contribute to a "durable ceasefire". Details still not available, but Ha'aretz reports that it will include "patrols of the Persian Gulf, Sudan, and neighboring states". Diplomats said earlier that the arrangement included greater intelligence cooperation, and US technical and logistical assistance for border monitors. No US personnel will be involved on land with the border monitoring in either Gaza or Egypt.

Forgive me, but this doesn't sound like a vital component of a cease-fire agreement. Instead, it looks like US and Israel are trying to write a blank cheque to pick off "suspect" Iranian ships in international waters and to run covert and military operations in areas like Sudan.

5:40 p.m. Important clarification: Saudi Arabia did not attend today's meeting in Qatar.

5:20 p.m. Recapping on developments from the meeting in Qatar. Syrian President Bashir al-Assad has made the first big move, asking all Arab countries to cut "all direct and indirect" ties with Israel. Immediate effect is to suspend the "indirect peace negotiations" between Syria and Israel, but this is also Damascus's gambit to lead an Arab bloc against Tel Aviv and Cairo.

Al-Assad's move reinforced Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal's call for an isolation of Israel, and Qatar has now suspended relations with Tel Aviv.

5 p.m. More on the Israeli position on a cease-fire. Reuters, like Al Jazeera English, reports that Israel is pushing for a permanent ceasefire but adds our interpretation that Israel is insisting "Hamas must accept the return of Western-backed President Mahmoud Abbas's Palestinian Authority to Gaza's border crossings".

Meanwhile, one Palestinian reported killed and several wounded by Israeli forces during protest in Hebron in the West Bank. Demonstrations took place in towns despite Israeli attempts to close off the West Bank for 48 hours.

4:35 p.m. Well, well. The Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz has broken ranks to ask, "Is Israel using illegal weapons in its offensive on Gaza?" The story by Amira Haas uses reports and witnesses to answer Yes with the level of detail beyond that in American and British reports. Further information is in a separate post.



4:25 p.m. Interesting twist on the diplomatic front: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says Moscow is "sending...signals to representatives of Hamas, and those states which have influence on Hamas", i.e. Iran and Syria, to support the Egyptian proposals.

Another sign that the Syrian and Iranian Governments and in particular Syrian leader Bashir al-Assad are big winners in this crisis....

4:15 p.m. A quick P.S. from "Rafah Kid": "The bulldozers are back on top of us again."

4 p.m. While trying to hold the line diplomatically, Israel is pursuing the other part of its plan to take Hamas out of power: "decapitation".

The Israelis are continuing their attempts to assassinate Hamas leaders. Having killed Saed Siam on Thursday but failed to "liquidate", as the US used to call it, military leader Mahmud az-Zahar, Tel Aviv has a partial short-term success. The question remains, however: how many Hamas leaders would have to be slain before the movement collapsed? I think the number is far more than Israel can achieve in the window before a cease-fire has to be agreed.

2 p.m. No significant updates on the Israeli position from talks in Cairo and later in Washington. For the moment, attention is on a sideshow --- important not for immediate Gaza situation but for Arab and Middle Eastern politics --- in Qatar. In addition to the Gulf States and Iran, Hamas and the Palestinian groups Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) are present.

There is a clear possibility here, if the Gaza crisis continues, of a split in the Arab states and regional powers between those trying to isolate Hamas (notably Egypt and Saudi Arabia) and those backing the organisation and groups beyond Fatah (not only Syria but also Iran and Turkey).

12:20 p.m. "Rafah Kid", taking advantage of a few hours of electricity, has posted a short blog and photos from Rafah in southern Gaza.

12:15 p.m. Joshua Landis, in addition to some incisive comments on future US policy towards Syria, gets to the point on the next President and Israel/Palestine:

Obama’s support for Israel’s destruction of Hamas is not promising. If the US supports Israel’s continued efforts to hunt down Hamas’ leaders and kill them, the situation will be bleak. If Hamas is effectively decapitated, diplomacy will have little future for the Palestinians.

12:10 p.m. Bit of a twist that we had missed on the meeting of some Arab countries in Qatar: Egypt won't be there but Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad will be making an appearance. The dynamics, especially between Iran and Saudi Arabia, are worth watching.

11:45 a.m. More notable is Ban's effusive praise of the PA for its achievements over the last three years. He makes clears that "they are the democratically elected leadership" of Palestine --- a bit curious in light of the 2006 elections in Gaza --- as he presses his call for "the unity of the Palestinians....Only you, the Palestinians, can do this."

Ban either has no comprehension of the complexities in Gazan politics and society, or he is happily marching along with the Israel-US blueprint for PA at the head of Gaza as well as the West Bank. I'm starting to believe the former.

11:40 a.m. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon now speaking at press conference with Palestinian Authority leader (depeand present/former (depending on your point of view) West Bank Prime Minister Salam Fayyad. He calls for a "sustainable" ceasefire --- "there is no time to lose" --- but thinks that an agreement is "very close".

Nothing too stunning there, especially in substance.

11:05 a.m. Al Jazeera's Mouin Rabbani believes two issues in cease-fire talks: Israel demand for permanent cessation, which Hamas rejects without permanent end to Israeli occupation of Gaza and West Bank, and Israel desire for international monitors on Egyptian side of border, which Cairo views as infringement on its sovereignty.

11 a.m. Israeli shelling continues as Friday prayers begin. Large funeral procession expected for Hamas leader Saed Siam.

10:16 a.m. Israel continues to stall on the diplomatic front while keeping military options open: Gaza offensive could be entering its "final act" but the extent of operations and length of time of that act kept open.

10:15 a.m. Oh, yes, the Gulf Cooperation Council states meet in Qatar today to discuss Gaza. There will be little of direct effect upon the conflict, especially since Egypt is pointedly staying away from the meeting. More intriguing will be inter-Arab politics, reading for example the position that Saudi Arabia takes.

9:50 a.m. Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin: Gaza death toll 1133 with 5200 injured.

9:30 a.m. Our colleagues at "Alive in Gaza" have posted another audio interview with photojournalist Sameh Habeeb from Gaza City: "Drones in the Air".

9:15 a.m. Palestinian Statistics Bureau: Current conflict has cost the Gazan conflict $1.4 billion.

Morning update (8:45 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): The overnight development is on the diplomatic front. It appears that Israel's manoeuvre in the cease-fire negotiations will be an attempt to get an American presence in the international force monitoring Gaza's borders and tunnels. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni travels to Washington today and is reported to be seeking US guarantees. On Thursday, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's office put out the line that US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice had told Olmert that "the United States would be prepared to assist in solving the issue of smuggling". Meanwhile, Ministry of Defence official Amos Gilad returns to Cairo.

Israel says it struck more than 40 Gazan targets overnight, including two Hamas outposts. Its killing of key Hamas official Saed Siam yesterday continues to resonate: according to Al Jazeera, Fatah officials are privately expressing satisfaction over Siam's death.

Gazan death toll is now more than 1110. Israeli death toll remains at 13.

There continues to be a battle in the media between Israel's projection of its military success and the controversy over its shelling of civilian targets, including its use of white phosphorous. Speaking about the Israeli attack on the United Nations compound, UN official John Ging applied the "duck test" (if it walks likes a duck, quacks like a duck, etc.): ""It looks like phosphorus, it smells like phosphorus and it's burning like phosphorus. That's why I'm calling it phosphorus."

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (12 Jan --- Evening)

Later Updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (13 January)
Latest Post: "Bring Fatah Into Gaza"
Latest Post: Tony Blair Slams Hamas; His Former Ambassador Slams Blair and Israel


12:40 p.m. Off for downtime: a "holding pattern" day as Israeli Cabinet seems undecided on its next day and Hamas --- through a military strategy of remaining elusive and a political strategy of popping up to make statements --- holds out. While Israel may make out that it is playing "Whack-a-Mole" with the enemy, it is more likely that the Israeli military has a growing concern. Neither moving forward nor backwards, Israeli forces may become a static target for Hamas hit-and-run targets.

I don't think the situation is tenable from an Israeli point of view for many days but, with no political breakthrough, what is their next step?



11:40 p.m. News that Ban Ki-moon, the United Nations Secretary-General, insisting that an immediate cease-fire in Gaza "must be observed" prompts the question: what happened, if anything on the diplomatic front? I still have not seen any news out of Cairo.

11:35 p.m. Catching up: Hamas leader (and, for Al Jazeera, "deposed Palestinian prime minister") Ismail Haniya made his second speech during the Gaza conflict, which he promised would "deliver a new future" to the Gazan people: "Victory comes with patience."

11:30 p.m. The Guardian of London has the story of the frustration of doctors at al-Arish hospital in the Sinai in Egypt:

"There are 4,000 injured people just 50km from here," [the surgeon] says quietly. "We're sitting in a very well-equipped hospital with more than 100 doctors on call, ready to deal with more than 400 emergency cases through the week. But they are not coming. We don't know why. We just wait."

11:10 p.m. Ground battles intensifying in Jabaliya and moving southward towards Zeitoun, but still on periphery of Gaza City. More Israeli airstrikes around Rafah.

11:05 p.m. Al Jazeera is all over the Zeitoun massacre story. Israeli spokesman Mark Regev is telling bald-faced lies such as "we didn't have forces operating in this way in the area" and Israeli forces "didn't put members of the family in a house" capped with the line that this is all Hamas propaganda.

Israel did get more than 100 trucks with aid into Gaza but distribution still restricted because of fuel shortages. More than 70 percent of Gazans have no electricity; 1/3 have no running water.

11 p.m. Back after a celebration of the 100th anniversary of a fabulous institution called Fircroft College (more about this later in a separate blog).

8:03 p.m. CNN headline: "U.S. targets nuclear proliferation network". Ah, good, that will mean American sanctions on Israel....

8:01 p.m. Tangential (irrelevant?) development of the day: "EU Proposes Gaza Donor Conference"

8 p.m. Sorry to be a drag, but all hell is breaking loose in Somalia, where Government troops have killed "many" in response to an attack on the Presidential Palace.

7:10 p.m. Al Jazeera: "There are gun battles between Israeli soldiers and Palestinian fighters in the areas of east Jabaliya and Tuffah. We are also hearing eyewitness reports that several houses have been demolished in the north, in Beit Hanoun and in other areas."

6:45 p.m. We've just posted an analysis, "Bring Fatah into Gaza: The Call to Arms in the Washington Post"

6:05 p.m. Iran's Press TV is reporting that Israeli bombardment has hit a clinic and (via Al-Aqsa TV) the al-Dorra children's hospital.

6 p.m. OK, this is getting curious. Not a peep out of Cairo, either on the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal or on the specific Egyptian-Israeli discussions on control of the border and tunnels in southern Gaza

5:34 p.m. There is a running discussion of the live feed from Gaza City, and the Israeli attempt to redirect it. CNN's take-up of the Ramattan feed can now be watched.

5:23 p.m. I'm going to drop all semblance of objectivity for a minute. This is the disgraceful response --- some might say stonewall, some might say lie --- on the Zeitoun mass killing:

Israel says it has no information of an incident in which 30 people were killed when the house they were placed in by the Army was shelled.

5:05 p.m. President Bush has just finished his last press conference. Best comment: "I hope someone is videotaping this cause it's going to be footage like the bunker scene with Hitler in Downfall."

5:02 p.m. The live feed of the Ramattan News Agency, which we have monitored for the last few days for news from Gaza City, has been redirected to an Israeli television station.

5 p.m. Israel/Gaza time: CNN continues to lead with the humanitarian story, based on the diary of an aid worker, apparently unaware of the jarring juxtaposition with its second story, "Israel breaks off attacks to allow relief supplies into Gaza".

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (10 January)

Latest Story: The Plan to Bring Fatah into Gaza — Livni Speaks
The Final Bush Legacy: Why the US Abstained on the Gaza Resolution
Latest Story: The Plan to Bring Fatah into Gaza?

12:10 a.m. With a lull in activity, we're going for some downtime. We half-expected a major Israeli ground attack before dawn but it appears that the Israeli Cabinet may still be undecided about pushing into Gazan cities.

Meanwhile, it's safe --- and sad --- to say that all is stalled on the political front. This has settled into a frustrating circle: none of the major players wants to appear to make a concession to Hamas (since most of those players want to get rid of the organisation) and, without a concession such as the opening of border crossings, Hamas will not negotiate for a cease-fire.



11:25 p.m. Israeli military says seven soldiers "lightly wounded" on Saturday. More than 60 targets hit in airstrikes. Suicide bomber killed in northern Gaza.

Four members of same family killed by Israeli tank shell near Beit Lahiya.

10:15 p.m. Israeli bombing raids in northeastern Gaza. Meanwhile, Israeli "information" services brings out their secret weapon: "internationally-renowned singer Noa", who speaks for peace to "Palestinian brothers":

Now I see the ugly head of fanaticism, I see it large and horrid, I see its black eyes and spine-chilling smile, I see blood on its hands and I know one of its many names :Hamas.

9:55 p.m. Watching Khaled Meshaal recorded statement: while he says Israel has ruined chance of peace, I think he has set down a marker: Hamas will negotiate if there is an unconditional opening of the crossings (which Israel will not accept, of course)

9:50 p.m. Khaled Mashaal, Hamas leader in Damascus, tells Al Jazeera that Israel has failed in Gaza, achieving only "a holocaust which your leaders are trying to use for the next election".

9:45 p.m. Report of 500-1000 demonstrators in front of Israeli Embassy in London. Shoes and signs being thrown, and riot police charging the crowd.

9 p.m. Four Israeli F-16 jets violate Egyptian airspace.

8:30 p.m. Human Rights Watch tells Al Jazeera that it is "convinced" Israeli military is using white phosphorous

8:15 p.m. Information or disinformation? Israel's Channel 2 claims some Hamas fighters are wearing civilian clothes and some are impersonating IDF soldiers.

7:50 p.m. "Rafah Kid" is blogging with updates and opinion from Rafah, Gaza.

7:40 p.m. BBC says up to 50,000 at London demonstration for Gaza. Participants estimate more than 100,000.

6:20 p.m. Israeli military claims that it has killed Gaza City commander of Hamas rocket launching programme.

4:25 p.m. Diplomatic battle lines drawn between Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas. Abbas in Cairo supports "international presence in the Gaza Strip", but Hamas delegation says it was not consulted.

While Abbas covered his back with the warning, "If Israel doesn't want to accept, it will take the responsibility of perpetuating a waterfall of blood," he also set up Hamas for the fall if it does not accept the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal: "If any party does not accept it, regrettably it will be the one bearing the responsibility."

4:15 p.m. Associated Press says leaflets dropped by Israel throughout Gaza announce "a new phase in the war on terror". Israeli Army calls the leaflets "a general warning".

3:45 p.m. Diplomatic negotiations going nowhere. Egypt and the Palestinian Authority have rejected the placement in Egypt of international observers for the Gaza-Egypt border, while Hamas have rejected the placement of an international force in Gaza.

3:40 p.m. From the diary of Sami Abdel Shafi, management consultant and columnist in Gaza City:

Whatever capacity we did have to run our own affairs is now no longer there, and it will make it extraordinarily difficult for the Gaza Strip to go forward whenever the war does end.

Only then will people discover the real cost of this war, when we have to look around and ask just how we begin a rebuilding effort on such a massive scale.

3:35 p.m. UN says three-hour respite not enough to allow resumption of aid deliveries in Gaza.

3:30 p.m. Israel dropping leaflets on Gaza City residents warning them to stay indoors as it plans to "escalate" offensive.

2:15 p.m. The interview with Norwegian doctor Mads Gilbert could have a significant impact if it spreads beyond Al Jazeera, which is featuring it each hour. Gilbert is saying that the injuries he is seeing are not from "ordinary" shrapnel but from DIME (dense inert metal explosive) weapons.

Claims that the Israelis used DIME in Gaza first surfaced in 2006. The weapons have not been declared illegal, but the injuries caused show severe heat as well as percussive damage.

2 p.m. Israeli ground offensive imminent? Israeli Cabinet approves call-up of "unlimited" number of reservists

1:45 p.m. Explosions continue despite supposed three-hour "respite".

1:25 p.m. United Nations official Chris Gunness says Israeli Defense Forces have admitted responsibility for the Jabiliya school/shelter bombing:

In briefings senior officers conducted for foreign diplomats, they admitted the shelling to which IDF forces in Jabalya were responding did not originate from the school. The IDF admitted in that briefing that the attack on the UN site was unintentional.

Gunness added that footage released by the IDF, trying to show Hamas fighters operated from the school in 2007, was filmed after the UN had temporarily abandoned the site.

1:10 p.m. Israeli military says three-hour "respite" began at 1 p.m. Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin reports that Israeli forces have surrounded all major population centers in Gaza City.

UN is now investigating the Zeitoun mass killing.

1 p.m. Gazan death toll now 815.

12:40 p.m. Israeli tank shell kills eight members of a family in Jabaliya camp.

12:10 p.m. In Cairo, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas calls Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal a "rescue initiative" which is "the only mechanism" to end Gaza war. Sharp-eyed readers will note that Abbas makes no reference to the UN cease-fire resolution passed just over 24 hours ago.

12:05 p.m. Latest Israeli airstrike just outside Gaza City as Ayman Moyheldin reports live on Al Jazeera.

12 noon: Mads Gilbert, a Norwegian doctor, says 165 dead children and more than 1200 wounded children brought to al Shifa hospital to date.

Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin says Israelis are bringing aid into warehouse but international agencies cannot and will not distribute because of security issues and shortage of fuel. No resumption of aid shipments so far. Close combat between Israeli and Hamas forces overnight, with unknown number of Hamas fighters killed and five Israeli troops wounded.

11:10 a.m. Journalists in Gaza demonstrate after the Israeli strike on a building used by media.

11 a.m. Poll of the Day: Hamas' military branch, the Al Qassam Brigades, offers visitors to their English website the choice of "Keep Calm", "Resume Rockets", "Resume Operations". Right now, it's 40 percent each for "Keep Calm" and "Resume Operations", with 20 percent for "Resume Rockets".

Morning Update: Israeli operations continue overnight, with strikes on more than 40 targets, as talks begin in Cairo on the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal.

Ban Ki-Moon, the United Nations Secretary-General, in a phone call to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, "expressed disappointment that the violence is continuing on the ground in disregard". A UN official has called for a war crimes investigation of Israeli actions.

More to our follow-up on the Zeitoun mass killing: The Guardian has an article --- it appears at least 30 members of the al-Samouni clan died in the Israeli shelling of a house, and up to 30 other civilians died nearby. The dead and wounded lay unattended for up to four days.

More than 800 Gazans have been killed since the start of the conflict two weeks ago. Thirteen Israelis, of whom 10 are soldiers, have been killed --- in contrast to the claims of the Al Qassam Brigades that they killed eight Israeli troops in an ambush, claims no losses on Friday.

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: The United Nations "Cease-fire" Vote

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (9 January)

A Headline Story with a Twist....

As expected, the United Nations Security Council passed a consensus resolution, drafted by Britain, which "calls for, an immediate, durable, and fully respected cease-fire which will lead to the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza". The resolution also welcomed negotiations on the Mubarak-Sarkozy package and called for humanitarian corridors. The vote was 14-0 in favour, with one abstention.

The twist is that the abstention came from the United States. Despite news reports throughout the day that the resolution was a US-UK-France initiative, when the vote came, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice sat on her hands.

The reason? Well, Rice said that the resolution had laudable goals but the US "prefers to wait for results of ongoing, Egyptian-brokered talks in Cairo, Egypt, with Israeli and Palestinian leaders". In other words, Washington just told the United Nations that it is secondary, and indeed peripheral, to the Mubarak-Sarkozy process. There is no alternative to the talks in Cairo.

So what's the problem? Well, the immediate one is that Washington has just green-lighted Israel for a few more days: "All this discussion of a cease-fire is very, very nice but, for now, we're stand aside if you press on with your military operations." (Indeed, if you want to be cynical, you might speculate that the US went through the process of drafting this resolution only to block a Libyan-drafted resolution which was due to come before the Security Council yesterday.)

Beyond that, the Mubarak-Sarkozy process succeeds only if both Israel and Hamas agree to it. If Israel stalls on it or decides to walk away, it suffers no consequences --- at least in terms of American action. (That may also apply to the third actor, the Palestinian Authority.) However, if Hamas doesn't play ball, well, you fill in the blank.

This isn't a "spineless" abstention by the US. It does show resolve, calculated resolve. Unfortunately, that resolve is for more military action and more deaths until Hamas, in US and Israeli eyes, is cornered.

Rolling Updates on the Israeli Invasion of Gaza (7 January)

Later Story: Follow-Up: That State Department Twitter-Diplomacy….Gives the Game Away?
Later Story: Inconvenient (Rocket) Facts: Israel Still Can't Get It Right
Later Story: Rice to UN: US Seeks Regime Change in Gaza
Later Story: Inconvenient (Rocket) Facts: Israel Gets Caught Out by the BBC


12:45 p.m. Relatively quiet on both military and diplomatic fronts --- not expecting much out of any United Nations discussions --- so we're off for some downtime.

Tomorrow should offer some clues on the political direction of the conflict. With Hamas as well as the Palestinian Authority and Israel going to Cairo for negotiations, there may be some indication as to whether Tel Aviv and Washington will accept a settlement that leaves Hamas in control of Gaza or whether they try to isolate the organisation.

Meanwhile, on the military front, we may get some indication --- given the reports of Israeli moblisation around Rafah and warnings to residents --- of whether Tel Aviv is going to take the ground offensive into the cities.

11:30 p.m. Gazan medical sources say 700 Gazans killed in conflict, 219 are children and 89 are women. More than 3000 wounded: 46 percent are women and children.

11:25 p.m. Jabaliya Doubled: The Daily Telegraph of London is reporting the discovery in Zeitoun by a paramedic of between 60 and 70 bodies of the al Samouni clan (initial reports had put the death toll at 13), killed by Israeli shelling.



About 15 members of the clan were injured. Eight were left behind when Israeli troops began firing on ambulances.

So far, Israel has made no claim that there was Hamas members firing mortars from the shelled house.

10:50 p.m. A summary of Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah's speech on the Gaza situation --- "The Scheme is to Give West Bank to Jordan, Gaza to Egypt" --- is now posted in English on the Internet.

10:45 p.m. Took a break to post on today's How Not to Spin Information story: the Israeli consulate in New York, trying to prove Hamas was responsible for breaking the cease-fire, actually makes the case that the Gazan organisation was observing it.

8:45 p.m. Apologies --- missed this earlier. Israeli Cabinet postpones votes on expansion of ground offensive

8:40 p.m. Arab fightback? Representatives of Arab League at United Nations reject US-backed initiative for non-binding statement by President of Security Council and urge binding Security Council resolution for immediate cease-fire. Al Jazeera speculates this is because of growing "embarrassment" over Arab passivity in face of Mubarak-Sarkozy process.

8:30 p.m. Israeli military preparing for entry into Rafah in southern Gaza? Reports of leaflets being dropped on residents warning them to evacuate by 8 a.m. Gaza time

8 p.m. On CNN, French Foreign Ministry spokesman tries to reconcile different stories: Israel has welcomed "process" and "approach" of Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal. Tel Aviv is sending senior advisor to Minister of Defense Ehud Barak to Cairo tomorrow.

Spokesman adds that discussions are taking place with Hamas via Egypt and Syria. On the Palestinian Authority-Hamas issue, he talks of "Palestinian reconciliation".

6:15 p.m. Retractions: French President Sarkozy's office acknowledges that Israel has not accepted the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal while Israeli military says three-hour "respite" --- to take place every other day ---does apply to all of Gaza, not just Gaza City

5:25 p.m. Important development: Ahmed Youssef, political advisor to Hamas leader Ismail Haniya, tells Al Jazeera there are "good elements" in Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal and hopes for clarification of provisions in next 48 hours. Youssef adds that he hopes negotiation of Mubarak-Sarkozy will be in conjunction with movement in United Nations towards a resolution.

Youssef says the "by-product" of rockets will end when the Israeli occupation is terminated, indicating Hamas will not accept a cease-fire which does not mention Tel Aviv's aggression: "As long as the occupation is there, we have to defend ourselves....When we have full control of our destiny....there will be no firing of rockets."

5:20 p.m. Thomas Friedman carries the media flag for Israel. His latest column in The New York Times, "The Mideast's Ground Zero", is being distributed via Twitter by the Israeli Consulate in New York. And no wonder, six years after Friedman marched into war with Iraq, he's still got an Axis of Evil to grind:

No doubt, Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran are hoping that they can use the Gaza conflict to turn Obama into Bush. They know Barack Hussein Obama must be (am)Bushed — to keep America and its Arab allies on the defensive. Obama has to keep his eye on the prize. His goal — America’s goal — has to be a settlement in Gaza that eliminates the threat of Hamas rockets and opens Gaza economically to the world, under credible international supervision.

5:15 p.m. Confusion over the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal and possible embarrassment for the French President. France had announced Israel's acceptance of the limited cease-fire, but Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert says that proposal is still being studied.

5 p.m. Two hours into the three-hour respite but Al Jazeera says there are reports of fresh fighting in Gaza City. Seven Israeli airstrikes, mainly in northeast Gaza.

The respite has allowed paramedics to get to some areas of Gaza for first time.

4:20 p.m. Israel "clarifies" the three-hour respite: says it applies only to Gaza City

3:45 p.m. A break from Gaza coverage to more important issues: CNN International is running an in-depth investigation of Oprah Winfrey's weight

3:20 p.m. Osama Hamdan of Hamas says organisation is considering Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal along with "other initiatives",  maintains cautious line --- "If we criticise Egypt, it does not mean we cannot discuss with Egypt"

3:12 p.m. Hamas officials say they are considering the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal.

3:10 p.m. French officials say both Israel and Palestinian Authority have accepted the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal for a limited cease-fire and talks in Cairo.

3:05 p.m. Respite, after firing from both sides in opening minutes, reported to be "generally holding". At least 683 Gazans killed since start of conflict.

2:20 p.m. Report of "tens of thousands" of mourners at funerals of the victims of Jabaliya school/shelter bombing.

UN officials "99.9 percent certain" that there were no militants in the shelter.

2:00 p.m. An  hour after the "respite" began, shelling resumes north of Gaza City, although more civilians are on the streets in the centre of the city. Machine gun fire near Beit Lahoun.

1:35 p.m. Israeli Defense Forces say they have suspended operations for three hours. Hamas says it will match this by suspending firing of rockets.

1:10 p.m. Israeli airstrikes kill four people outside a  mosque in Gaza City and two people in the Zeitoun district. Explosions reported in Jabaliya and Beit Lahiya.



12:55 p.m. London-based Arabic-language newspaper al-Quds al-Arabi reports that officers of US Army Engineering Corps have been stationed at Rafah to unearth smugglers' tunnels --- unclear whether they are now on Egyptian or Gazan side or border

12:45 p.m. Israel seizes the media initiative, at least with CNN: its headline story is of Tel Aviv's offer of a "short respite" with the three-hour pause in bombing each day, while the Jabiliya deaths are at the foot of the story (and noted with "The Israeli military said Hamas militants were firing mortars from the school").

11:55 a.m. No humanitarian bombing pause yet: Al Jazeera reports heavy Israeli bombing around city of Rafah on Egypt-Gaza border.

11:34 a.m. Dan Gillerman, the former Israeli Ambassador to the UN and the coordinator of Israel's information operations, tells Al Jazeera that the deaths in the Jabaliya bombing are "horrible tragedy" but whereas each death is "a cause for sadness" for Israel, each is "a cause for celebration" for Hamas.

Gillerman refuses to address the question of whether Israel violated international law with the shelling of the school/shelter. John Ging, United Nations Relief and Works Agency official, repeats that the GPS coordinates of the school/shelter were given to Israeli forces, and calls for a "full investigation".

11:10 a.m. Israeli Cabinet currently discussing military operations, including possible expansion of ground offensive with mobilisation of tens of thousands of reservists. Israeli forces reported to be in "holding pattern" around Gazan cities.

11 a.m. Israel announces, for the "humanitarian corridor", that it will halt military attacks for three hours each day. Al Jazeera reports Gazan reaction: "What about the other 21 hours a day?"

10:20 a.m. I have known and learned for 20 years from Professor Avi Shlaim, one of Britain's foremost historians on the Middle East. In today's Guardian of London, he has an opinion piece, "How Israel Brought Gaza to the Brink of Humanitarian Catastrophe", offering the historical context to the current crisis:

This brief review of Israel's record over the past four decades makes it difficult to resist the conclusion that it has become a rogue state with "an utterly unscrupulous set of leaders". A rogue state habitually violates international law, possesses weapons of mass destruction and practises terrorism - the use of violence against civilians for political purposes. Israel fulfils all of these three criteria; the cap fits and it must wear it. Israel's real aim is not peaceful coexistence with its Palestinian neighbours but military domination.

9:40 a.m. The United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator has released a situation report, current to 6 p.m. on 6 January, detailing casualties and damages from Israeli bombing and shelling. It also sets out the status of medical services and shelter and the provision of food, fuel, water, and electricity.

9:15 a.m. Ayman al-Zawahiri, the deputy chief of Al Qa'eda, issued a statement calling the Gaza conflict a "gift" from President-elect Barack Obama with "that traitor" Hosni Mubarak as the main partner.

Frankly, I consider this a sign of the relative weakness and peripheral place of Al Qa'eda, except to a small group of core activists, not only in Gaza but in international affairs. Far more important, as Juan Cole has noted, is the impact upon local "insurgents" in places such as Afghanistan, as they use the wider policies of countries like the US to mobilise their supporters.

9:05 a.m. Other success of Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal is pushing the specific incident of the shelling of Jabaliya school/shelter, which killed at least 43 and wounded at least 100 Gazans, and the general humanitarian issue to the background. Al Jazeera is leading with the Jabiliya killings but other news services have put it in the background.

The Israeli proposal for a "humanitarian corridor" appears to be a public-relations success, at least for the moment. And, contrary to my opinion yesterday, it seems that Jabaliya will not be the successor to Qana (Lebanon) 2006, when dozens of civilian deaths in a single incident helped force an end to military operations.

Jabaliya was one of three schools/shelters struck yesterday. More than 660 Gazans have now died.

9 a.m. Lead development is the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal for immediate cease-fire and meetings in Cairo between Israel and Palestinian "factions"

There is still lack of clarity on proposals such as arrangements for border security and when and to what extent blockade would be lifted. Perhaps most important, no confirmation on whether Hamas would be invited to negotiations. In fact, there is not even agreement on the cease-fire. United States is still holding out against any cessation of military operations.

However, immediate "success" of the proposal is to block any UN resolution on the crisis. Initiative is now clearly with France, Egypt as the Arab "leader", and --- behind them --- the US and European countries. If Israel and the Palestinian Authority play their parts,, then this could be an ambitious move for a "grand design" on Gaza. This would include isolating and possibly overthrowing Hamas.