Iran Special: A Response to "The Plot Against Ahmadinejad" (Verde)

Mr Verde assesses EA's Saturday "exclusive" on the planning amongst leading Iranian conservatives/principlists to limit the President's authority or even remove him from office

I thank him and offer this quick addition. I fully agree that the plotters against Ahmadinejad are "trying to protect their own interests within the regime...[rather] than offering a real change of direction". The evidence from our sources may indicate that they no longer think their interests can be protected with the President in office.

But, as Mr Verde notes, their success depends on getting the Supreme Leader to accept this point of view (and possibly setting up defences against a response by the Revolutionary Guard). That success in turn needs more than the current base of planners: Hashemi Rafsanjani and senior clerics, in their view, have to be added. Until they see this as likely, the private manoeuvres of Larijani-Rezaei-Tavakoli will not become public beyond their speeches challenging the Government:

Iran Exclusive: The Plot to Remove Ahmadinejad, Act II

As the exclusive notes, under the present circumstances the possibility that Ahmadinejad is impeached by the Parliament is unlikely. They will need the signature of 1/3 of MPs to start the process and a 2/3 vote to actually impeach him.

We all saw what happened when the Majlis voted against the pro-Ahmadinejad Supreme Council for Cultural Revolution in the contest over Islamic Azad University, in which the Parliament backed down within 48 hours. In an impeachment process, we would probably witness more than a busload of thugs in front of Majlis.

Even if the president is impeached, the Supreme Leader will have the final say in dismissing him and Khamenei has invested too much on Ahmadinejad. And even if Ahmadinejad were to be dismissed, the First VP Mohammad Reza Rahimi would become an interim president. Because the planners have as many problems with Rahimi as they do with Ahmadinejad, they would have to get rid of him before moving on the President.

All this new talk of attacking and threatening Ahmadinejad by the Larijani-Rezaei axis is probably from a position of weakness rather than strength. They feel that, as a result of changes in the past few years and especially the last 12 months, Ahmadinejad and Co. are moving to limit their power and influence. With Khamenei’s intervention in the Azad University case, they have found some space to try to push back against Ahmadinejad ----the Kahrizak Prison abuse scandal and Rahimi’s corruption case are just convenient excuses. So this could be more a rear-guard action than a strategy for attack.

The events of the past year have resulted in a logjam within the Islamic Republic. The election fraud and the post-election actions by the regime have left the Republic’s reputation in pieces. Violence on behalf of the Islamic Republic against its own citizens is not new; what is new is that this time the violence has been directed at the entire population rather than targeted at specific groups, like the leftists, MKO [Mujahedin-e-Khalq], reformists, etc.

As the Supreme Leader, Khamenei has clearly said that he supports Ahmadinejad, and within the regime he has concentrated power in the hands of a small faction that is behind the President. If he were to move against Ahmadinejad now, there were be two consequences. Firstly, the people who are behind Ahmadinejad would rebel against the decision, further damaging the Supreme Leader's reputation and influence. Secondly, Khamenei would be admitting that his decision to back Ahmadinejad wholeheartedly was wrong. This would lead to more serious questions about his judgement and his ability to remain in charge. More of the Republic’s servants would doubt Khamenei as the Leader and the legitimacy of the regime and their roles with it.

Therefore, the whole existence of the Islamic Republic could be threatened if Khamenei were to try to sacrifice Ahmadinejad. This might have been possible last summer: Khamenei could have withdrawn his support of the President then and allowed him to fall. Khamenei would have been damaged too, but he could probably have gotten away with it. But since Khamenei, for whatever reason, decided to stand by Ahmadinejad, the only way he could now get rid of him is if the regime had managed to create stability in Iran. The current situation is far from that: we are witnessing new crises on a daily basis.

Some might say that Khamenei could get rid of Ahmadinejad and install someone like Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, or Secretary of Expediency Council Mohsen Rezaei. The problem is that this person would have to give in to at least some of the demands of the opposition and protestors. If that were to happen, the regime, which has been so inflexible, would suddenly have signalled to the population that ,with enough pressure, it would relent, no matter serious the issue. That could be the start of a new, and perhaps more determined, wave of opposition and protests.

Some might argue that the reformists can take over. They are too far from the centre of power at the present time. And it is increasingly looking like the reformists are facing ideological problems of their own. They seem to speak in paradoxes: both “return to the values Islamic Revolution” and “human rights”. They have not yet managed to explain how it would be possible to return to the values of the Revolution under Ayatollah Khomeini and install values like democracy, human rights, etc. The mess we are in at the present time is the result, not the abuse, of the values of the Revolution as interpreted by Khomeini. So a reformist takeover within the regime could lead to more public demands for change (and maybe even more protests) which could end up causing more damage to the Islamic Republic.

The regime in a precarious impasse with Ahmadinejad as a piece within the stalemate. If this piece is taken away in the present circumstances, it may lead to the whole structure collapsing

As far as the clerics are concerned, I think they are in a lose-lose situation. On the one hand, Ahmadinejad & Co. (with support from Khamenei) are moving to limit and weaken their power within the regime. On the other hand, the three decades of clerical rule in Iran have left them discredited. [Editor's Note: see an earlier analysis by Mr Verde, “The Escalating Crisis Within”).

Therefore any moves by Larijani-Tavakoli-Rezaei-etc against Ahamdinejad are probably more to do with them trying to protect their own interests within the regime, than a real change of direction. Otherwise, the regime could face more serious problems.

The Latest from Iran (9 July): Remembering 18 Tir?

Editor's Note: A technical glitch means that Comments are now closed on this page. Further comments and discussion continue on the 10 July updates page.

2125 GMT: Who Could He Mean? And ahead of tomorrow, another glance at a statement by Ali Larijani on Thursday: "Whoever stands against the law is committing rebellion and everyone should obey the law, or the Parliament will stand against him. It makes no sense that ordinary people obey the law but some of the officials do not."

2040 GMT: Heat Alert. The Ahmadinejad Government has announced that Sunday and Monday will be public holidays --- Saturday is a religious holiday --- because of the "extreme heat".

We presume that they mean the high air temperatures in the country rather than any extreme political heat they may be feeling amidst Bazaar strikes, conservative intrigues, etc.

NEW Iran Document: Detained Student Leader Tavakoli on 18 Tir & Protest (6 July)
NEW Iran Analysis: Assessing the Bazaar Strikes & a Political Twist (Verde)
Iran Document: Mousavi on UN Sanctions & Ahmadinejad Government (7 July)
Iran Snap Analysis: The Wave of Economic Discontent?
The Latest from Iran (8 July): Criticisms

2025 GMT: Important but Overlooked News? For reasons we will explain tomorrow, we think that this speech by Seyed Ahmad Dastghaib, the reformist PM of Shiraz, in the Majlis might be significant.....

Dastghaib said, "Unfortunately today many of Imam [Khomeini]’s speeches are not being said to the people". Then, using those speeches, he dropped his political bombshell: "If the top person in the country does wrong, Islam will depose him. He is not suitable for ruling and he is a Dictator."

In case anyone was not sure to whom Dastghaib was referring, he clarified that anyone can criticise the Supreme Leader.

Dastghaib also asserted, from Khomeini's words that broadcasters should be independent of the government and must broadcast everyone's opinion. Military forces must not interfere in the political and economic fields. And it is against Islamic law to attack or insult any cleric.

1935 GMT: It is reported that the Feminist School website has been filtered for the 15th time.

1925 GMT: Poster of the Day? It is claimed that this is a poster at the Tehran Bazaar: "Join the Strikes".



1430 GMT: Remembering. A group from the Mothers of Mourning, remembering their detained and killed children, have visited the memorial site for Cyrus the Great to denounce the oppression and injustices being committed against Iran's youth. The group then visited the home of imprisoned student activist Majid Tavakoli to share their empathy with his mother.

1315 GMT: Your Tehran Friday Prayer Update. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami taking charge today, and I have to say it's a pretty impressive performance from the fiery fellow.

Sure, he starts with the standard denunciation of Israel in the Middle East and of US and European sanctions against Iran but then he gets distinctive with his criticism, bringing in the July 1988 incident when the USS Vincennes shot down an Iranian civilian airliner, killing 290 people.

And then he's nimbly onto the cultural front, warning Iranians that they should not be misled by "Los Angeles singers". Tolerance, he says, must not only "cultural"; it must also be "political".

So how does all this fit together? Khatami name-checks 18 Tir (9 July) 1999 and the demonstrations against the Iranian regime . What was it? A great occasion to learn of the US threat and to neutralise it (and its Los Angeles singers).

1310 GMT: Culture Corner. According to Green Voice of Iran, famous singer Mohammad Nouri, artist of songs such as "Maryam", has rejected an offer of assistance from the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance.

1250 GMT: Responding to the Bazaar Strike. Javan News, linked to the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, has offered a special reaction to this week's developments in the Tehran Bazaar, "Angelina Jolie and Half-Naked Women Instead of Traditional Rug Designs":

There were wall carpets bearing half-bare women and girls, and the faces of [Indian superstar] Aishwarya Rai, Angelina Jolie, Nicole Kidman, and some Iranian actresses were more prominently displayed than [traditional rug designs]...., master rug weavers, who in the old days would not sit before their looms before performing ablution, now weave pictures of skulls and swastikas of Satanist groups into Iranian carpets. And even more regretfully, the bulk of rug traders' orders to weavers consists of vulgar pictures of women in various poses.


1230 GMT: Rumour of the Day (Week? Month?). Back from an academic break and then some checking with sources. Here's the story as we have it so far....

In recent days, there has been a meeting involving Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, 2009 Presidential candidate and Secretary of Expediency Council Mohsen Rezaei, and key member of Parliament and Larijani ally Ahmad Tavakoli. MP Ali Motahari may also have been present.

The meeting discussed the current political and economic situation and the tensions with the Ahmadinejad Government. We have reason to believe that there may be serious consideration of how and when to limit President Ahmadinejad's authority and possibly remove him from office. Specifically, those in the meeting were hoping to open up discussions with former President Hashemi Rafsanjani on the next steps.

(EA readers will recall that a similar initiative was reportedly discussed in January between Larijani, Rezaei, and Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf. That effort seemed to have been put on hold by the apparent success of the Government in restricting opposition on 22 Bahman/11 February.)

We hope to have more information and a full analysis on this development tomorrow.
0935 GMT: Grounding the Aircraft? A bit more on this week's tale that Iranian flights were being denied fuel by suppliers in Britain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Germany....

A Hamburg Airport spokeswoman said two Iranian aircraft took off without refuelling, one on Saturday and one on Wednesday: "We can confirm that these aircraft flew from Hamburg but did not take on fuel here. We cannot say where they flew to or where they refuelled."

0930 GMT: Propaganda Ploy. Green Voice of Iran claims a new creative tactic from Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting: fabricating "statements" by Mir Hosseni Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, and Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti by splicing together clips from their older speeches.

0920 GMT: Remembering. Thousands of people reported visited Beheshte Zahra cemetery yesterday afternoon in memory of last year's victims. Services for Mohsen Rouholamini, who was abused and killed in Kahrizak Prison, will be next Thursday.

Green Voice of Iran reviews the story of the post-election abuses in Kahrizak.

Peyke Iran posts photographs of families of detainees gathering on Wednesday outside Evin Prison.

0910 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? So let's check President Ahmadinejad's response to all these internal developments and tensions....

Speaking in Nigeria at the meeting of the Group of Eight Developing Countries, Ahmadinejad declared, "The UN should be in a free place, away from the US domination."

0905 GMT: Pressure on Ahmadinejad. Two stories in Rooz Online English which parallel our coverage....

Bahram Rafiee reviews this week's challenge by MP Ahmad Tavakoli to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who "weakens the judiciary and law", and Mohammad Reza Yazdanpanah, like EA's Mr Verde today, picks up the claims by Abbas Palizdar, the former MP who was jailed for verbal attacks on senior clergy and who now says he was acting on behalf of Ahmadinejad's camp.

0815 GMT: We have published the English translation of a statement by detained student leader Majid Tavakoli on 18 Tir, the anniversary of the 1999 demonstrations, and protest today.

0730 GMT: Parliament v. President. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has declared that the Majlis will stand firmly against "lawbreakers" --- a reference to Ahmadinejad's maneouvres v. Parliament over his 5th Budget Plan? --- and defend people's rights

Reformist MP Dariush Ghanbari has said that a plan to question Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, specifically over reparations from Iraq, is being prepared.

0720 GMT: The Bazaar Dispute. An EA correspondent reports that a meeting between Iranian officials and Bazaari representatives may not have gone too well. It is said to have ended in a clash with one official, Ali Asgari, leaving angrily. Bazaaris shouted at journalists to keep the other officials from departing and to make them give suitable answers.

There were also new reports that men in plainclothes were trying to get shopkeepers to open on Wednesday.

A bit of clarification. Yesterday was a religious holiday in Iran, so the Bazaar would normally have been closed, rather than "on strike"; Saturday is also a religious holiday. 0715 GMT: A Bit of Mischief over Ahmadinejad's Journeys. Khabar Online reports on President Ahmadinejad's visit to Mali and features this photo:



An EA correspondent says that, in Persian, "to put a hat on someone's head" --- in this case, a turban --- can mean cheating him.

0710 GMT: Mousavi's Statements Keep On Coming. Hard on the heels of his analysis this week of UN sanctions and the Ahmadinejad Government, Mir Hossein Mousavi has put out a statement declaring that the Green Movement welcomes diversity.

0540 GMT: We have posted an analysis by Mr Verde of the significance of this week's strikes in the Tehran Bazaar and of a new political development that may be trouble for President Ahmadinejad.

0535 GMT: Writing at insideIRAN, Sohrab Razzaghi, a former official in the Ministry of Interior, has posted a series of recommendations to strengthen Iran's civil society:

• Creation of social networks to support the political and civil liberties movement in Iran and starting talks with Iran’s civil rights and political activists to enhance human rights and democracy

• Building of civil societies, with assistance from the international community to help civil society activists in capacity-building and related efforts.

• Promotion of human rights in Iran in various levels and for various segments of society.

• Education of a new generation of political activists and human rights defenders

• Enhancement of the free flow of information among Iranian citizens.

0530 GMT: Parliament v. President. Footage has been posted of Press TV interviews, in Persian, with members of Parliament over the attacks by leading MP Ahmad Tavakoli on the Ahmadinejad Government.

0515 GMT: Execution Watch. Amidst international pressure, Iranian authorities have announced that Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, sentenced to death for adultery, will not be stoned. However, there is no indication that the threat of execution has been lifted.

0445 GMT: Today in Iran is 18 Tir. On the eve of this date in 1999, students began what would become the most widespread public protests since the 1979 Revolution. After a raid by security forces on a dormitory, the demonstrations escalated. Several people were killed in injured, hundreds were injured, and more than 1000 were estimated to have been detained.

So far, we have little news of public commemoration of the event. It may be notable that it is already in the mid-90s (35 degrees Celsius) in Tehran --- local time 9:15 a.m. --- and the temperature is projected to reach 107-108 (42 Celsius). So if there is a gathering of note, it may not take place until late afternoon.

Meanwhile....

Political Prisoner Watch

EA correspondents point us to a new report by human rights activists, in Persian, on conditions in a number of detention centres.

Iran Special: The Green Movement, the Regime, and "the West" (Nabavi)

Journalist and satirist Ebrahim Nabavi writes for Rooz Online:

More than a year has passed since the beginning of the Green Movement. Today, I would like to tell you things about the Green Movement that you might be less aware of.

Firstly, the Green Movement is not a religious movement, but it cannot be called a secular movement either, yet it can be called a non-religious movement with religious leaders. This is one of the ways for the growth of democracy in the Islamic world. The Green Movement is occurring in a religious society, not because we are in love with religion, no, we are not at all fond of a religious society, but we live in reality and whoever tells you that Iran’s future will be a secular society, do not take their comment seriously for the next fifty years. Even after fifty years, only Henry Kissinger will be able to predict tomorrow.

Secondly, the Green Movement has a distinct leadership. Mir Hossein Mousavi is the leader of this Movement, but he and other leaders of the Movement such as [Mohammad] Khatami and Karroubi have never claimed to be the leaders of the Movement, because the leaders of the Movement have a completely reciprocal relationship with its supporters.

Fifty percent of content of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s thoughts, demands, language and words have changed in the past year, not because he lacks a structured thought, but because he has maintained his interaction and dialogue with the supporters and especially the mid-ranked leaders of the Movement.

Thirdly, the Green Movement is a peaceful. If in the past year, thousands of Iranians have been imprisoned, wounded, exiled, tortured and more than a hundred people have been killed on the streets, it is all because of the regime’s fear of the Movement’s expansion and its widespread use of violence against the people. This year on the 12th of June, the people had planned to take to the streets on the anniversary of the coup, but despite article 27 of the constitution, the government did not grant authorisation.

The Green Movement’s goal is not to bring a ten-thousand strong crowd to the street and thus bring about tens of casualties and hundreds of prisoners. When three million people take to the streets, even a great army is incapable of controlling them, but when five thousand people take to the streets, they can be controlled using five hundred people.

Fourthly: The regime is currently faced with many conflicts. After the anniversary of Ayatollah Khomeini’s death which resulted in a dispute between Khomeini’s grandson and Ahmadinejad, a dramatic loss has been occurring in the pro-government camp. A great number of parliament members will return towards the people and sizeable portion of diplomats will probably not return to Iran. Right now, the regime loses between two to five of the leader’s most important aides and on the other side, the Green Movement is able to find more cohesion and is transforming from a chaotic crowd, to a distinct organisation. For a month now, the atmosphere for activity within Iran has opened up and particularly in the cities; there is a chance for the Green Movement to spread the word, especially using graffiti on walls and distributing fliers. All of this is because of an intense dispute among the conservatives themselves. We pray for their disputes to continue.

Fifthly, I said all this to bring the discussion to the issue of media. In Iran, seven channels, tens of radio stations, hundreds of newspapers and thousands of websites working under the supervision of the government, the conservatives, the leader and Ahmadinejad, tell tens of lies every minute. In addition, thirty Persian speaking television stations based in Los Angeles obstruct the people’s thinking by repetitively broadcasting old movies.

On the other hand, the government attacks the internet via filtering and forming the Internet Cyber Army and prevents TV images and radio waves to be reached to the Iranian people through jamming, while independent newspapers have long been shut down. Our main concern is launching a channel for transferring the breath of freedom into the country. For a while now, the Americans have talking of creating a censorship-free internet environment in Iran: Mr [Senator John] McCain is trying very hard in this regard, each time he mentions this, a few more Iranian journalists are arrested, and of course, nothing important happens.

Sixthly, a great constraint for us in launching independent media outside the country is that we cannot receive funds from outside Iran. Using foreign money here is like releasing gazelle into a field with thousands of hunters, some of whom might use tanks to hunt the gazelle. Receiving financial aid from Europe or the United States is like firing a bullet to the head of our colleagues in Iran. Also, my bitter and personal experiences with BBC Persian, VOA, Radio Zamaaneh and Deutsche Welle show that all Persian-language media take into account considerations with respect to their governments.

At times, the damage brought about by a TV station such as the BBC is a thousand times more than its benefits. They have taken away two hundred of our best writers who had hundreds of thousands of readers and turned them into the employees of an organisation which for many years has been viewed with suspicion by those Iranians that believe that the English are responsible for all the evil that occurs in Iran. Besides, the constant intervention of the Europeans in media affairs that are run with European money causes the practical destruction of this media. One those examples are Radio Zamaneh, which has collapsed. After months of efforts, Euronews has still not reached any point and it seems that it has yet to find Persian translators for its employees.

Seventhly, unfortunately, because of using Iranian advisors from previous centuries, many western governments harm the current pro-democracy movement instead of helping it. Three or four years ago, we faced problems for transferring a thousand Euros from France to Belgium because we worked for an opposition website. At the same time, in Europe, millions of Euros of Iranian funds belonging to the regime and the Revolutionary Guards were being used for various purposes that went against legal treaties of the UN. For many years, we have explained that we are not terrorists and in fact oppose terrorism, but the bank’s representative had focused on the word “Iran” which caused us to remove “Iran” from the name of our company.

As we speak, thousands of dollars in Canada and the United States are given to individuals in the name of “helping Iranian journalists”. Nevertheless, not only do these individuals not do anything for the Freedom Movement in Iran, but they effectively create legal dossiers against journalists inside the country. Some right-wing newspapers in Iran are being fed by money provided by you.

Eighthly, the Iranian state uses three methods for preventing any political activity: censorship, causing a lack of trust and obstructing the formation of organisation. These are the three most important measures taken by the Intelligence Ministry. However, our great chance is the internet. In practice and especially under the right conditions, the internet makes up for our three information and intelligence limitations and works for us like an organisation; it eliminates censorship and paves the way for mutual trust.

But the danger of the internet and is our great problem is the penetration of intelligence elements who access our data and are become aware of our plans. This is easier when it come to social networks and more difficult with main inboxes and p websites. Some of the best weapons at the disposal of the Green Movement in Iran are the Balatarin website, Facebook, and Twitter. Despite the fact that the Balatarin website was also used by radical supporters of the government and the radical supporters of a military strike against Iran, it was a powerful source for quickly spreading information and news across the country. In reality, in the past year, the following websites, Balatarin, Facebook, Rooz Online, and Jaras [Rah-e-Sabz] have acted as news websites and have been able to make up for the lack of organisation and to break the atmosphere of censorship. When we took to the streets, we had already spoken our minds on Facebook.

Ninth, despite all the problems that we are facing right now, our work is being followed in Iran because of our use of converting media. Many of our television and internet messages are sent to those lacking access to the internet, via paper fliers and video CDs. Following Ahmadinejad’s 12 June coup, we tried to speak with the media that was close to the people’s ears and through such means; we are currently successful to a certain extent

Tenthly, it might be useful to note that the belief a great number of our friends in the west is based on the belief behind the Islamic Republic’s propaganda. Contrary to the Iranian regime’s propaganda, it is not true that all villagers support Ahmadinejad. Half of them are, and nevertheless, our rural areas account for less than twenty percent of the population of Iran.

Contrary to the prevalent notion, the Freedom Movement of Iran is not a Movement of middle class; it is a completely widespread Movement. Most of the Movement’s casualties and prisoners are from the poor and most of the Army’s commanders are millionaires and billionaires. Mostly because of the current regime in the country, most of the educated are considered as relatively poor by others and the rich class of the country belong to a class of rulers and military and religious figures. Contrary to the prevalent propaganda, the most important group that fight against the regime and struggle for the separation of religion and politics are the moderate religious and Islamo-democratic groups, while a great segment of the government’s supporters’ ties with the state is based on their dependence on government money and they have no religious tendencies.

Eleventh, based on what has been said, we would like to ask those Europeans who think they wish to help us, “Think more about yourselves.” If the bomb that threatens the livelihoods of us as Iranians explodes, it will place the whole planet under threat.

The main problem for Iranians today, is information. We must reflect accurate news inside Iran. In doing so, we might be able to give this news to the entire world too. We do not ask money from you, but try to provide the possibility for breaking free from tyranny. From you as Europeans, we would like to ask you to give us permission to have a television station. We would like you to respond to us a little sooner. We do not want you to have a troubled conscience by asking us “What do you require?” and then abandon us in a cloud of uncertainty. The main requirement for Freedom Movement in Iran is awareness and, specifically, a television channel for conveying the news accurately and completely.

You have experienced the bitter taste of fascism during the Second World War. You know what danger is. We are in the same position as you. Within Iran, the sphere of life is more lively, everything is more dynamic and millions of people want to get rid of the Satan. The mere getting rid of the Satan will suffice, and then, they themselves will choose if they want to enter hell or heaven.