UPDATED Iran & Sanctions: Could Tehran's Flights Be Grounded?

UPDATE 1740 GMT: Britain's largest oil company BP has instructed its European operations not to refuel Iranian airlines "due to a decision from the U.S. Congress".

UPDATE 1530 GMT: Press TV has now posted a story which repeats the claim that Britain, Germany, the UAE, and Kuwait have suspended supplies of fuel.

Press TV adds denials from German'sTransport Ministry and Abu Dhabi airports that there was any ban; however, as EA readers have noted, this does not preclude a cutoff by private suppliers.

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The German Bureau first alerted us to this potentially significant story this morning. A key pro-Government member of Parliament, Kazem Jalali, had spoken of court action against the US for its unilateral sanctions against Iran. Jalali specifically noted the American threat to suspend sales of aircraft fuel (see our morning updates).

Deep in the story was the note that the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Germany had followed the American lead and halted fuel supplies.

Hours later came the confirmation, via Iranian Students News Agency and then relayed outside Iran, from the secretary of Iranian Airlines Union: "Since last week, after the passing of the unilateral law by America and the sanctions against Iran, airports in England, Germany, the UAE have refused to give fuel to Iranian planes."

Peyke Iran followed by reporting that an Iran Air flight from Frankfurt, Germany had been postponed and might be cancelled due to the fuel shortage.

And now our German Bureau adds this bit of information: on Sunday Iran Air cancelled a flight to Hamburg, Germany.

Watch this (air)space for developments....

The Latest from Iran (4 July): Who's in Charge?

1500 GMT: Economy Watch. According to the Central Bank of Iran, the country's  annual inflation rate was 9.4% in the year 22 June, a fall from 9.9% in May.

1350 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. RAHANA writes that women's rights and human rights activist Narges Mohammadi has been hospitalised after her recent release from detention.

1345 GMT: The Universities Crisis. One to Watch: Rah-e-Sabz is claiming that the dispute over control of Islamic Azad University has been resolved after a meeting between former President Hashemi Rafsanjani --- whose family are in key leadership positions at the university --- and the Supreme Leader.

The alleged deal is that Khamenei told the Supreme Council of Cultural Revolution to stop the fight between Parliament and Government over the university. In return,  Rafsanjani will offer public praise of the Supreme Leader.

NEW Iran Special: The Green Movement, the Regime, and “the West” (Nabavi)
NEW Iran Thought: Maybe The Robot Can Be President
Iran Special: The Escalating Crisis Within (Verde)
The Latest from Iran (3 July): Fussing and Feuding

1245 GMT: Fashion Watch. Rah-e-Sabz claims that more than 60 female students of Azad University in Qom have been summoned for "bad hijab".

1240 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard have visited Emaduddin Baghi, the journalist and human rights activists recently released after six months' detention.

0920 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Artin Ghazanfari, detained on Ashura (27 December), has been sentenced to one year in prison.

0905 GMT: Remembering. Fereshteh Ghazi interviews the father of Meysam Abedi, one of the first protesters killed after the election.

Abedi's father claims that his son tried to save a girl beaten by Basiji militia but was killed by a bullet in his stomach. He claims that the culprit was seized but then released.

0845 GMT: More on Parliament and Nukes (see 0730 GMT). The head of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, has put forth the defiant line over Iran's enrichment programme: "If the five permanent members of the UN Security Council --- Russia, China, France, Britain and the US --- plus Germany tighten the UN Security Council Sanctions Resolution 1929, they should not expect Iran to continue talks."

However, there may have been an opening for a resolution in Boroujerdi's remarks,"If the fuel for the Tehran research reactor is given, Iran will not insist on continuing the production of the fuel domestically."

0835 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rooz Online claims that, in Evin Prison's Ward 350 for political prisoners, a 35 square-metre cell holds 40 detainees.

Kurdish detainee Khalil Mostafa Rajab is reportedly in serious condition from a lung infection.

0730 GMT: We begin today with a special analysis from Ebrahim Nabavi assessing "The Green Movement, the Regime, and the West". And Scott Lucas offers a quick thought, in light of yesterday's developments, "Maybe the Robot Can Be President".

Meanwhile....

Parliament v. President

The current dispute between the Majlis and President Ahmadinejad simmers, with reports that a plan to "supervise" the Parliament is being re-appraised.

On one issue, however, the Majlis is in step with Ahmadinejad. The Speaker, Ali Larijani, continues to hammer away at the manipulations and deceits of the West over sanctions, a position echoed by another leading MP, Esmail Kowsari, in Iranian state media.

Just a bit of speculation, however. Is the apparent side-by-side approach by the Parliament on the nuclear issue also be an attempt by some to re-assert the power of the Majlis, showing that it can be even more vigilant than Ahmadinejad in standing up to Iran's foreign oppressors?

Khomeini's Defence

Hossein Anvari, of the Imam Khomeini Relief Committee, has tried to draw a line against regime pressure on the Khomeini family by declaring, "Our people were not present in uprisings."

Iran Thought: Maybe The Robot Can Be President

A possible breakthrough in post-election Iranian politics this morning. From the Associated Press:

Iranian officials have unveiled a human-shaped robot that can walk like a person, although at a slower pace.

Iranian state television says the Surena 2 robot weighs 99 pounds (45 kilograms) and is 4.76 feet (1.45 meters) tall. It was developed by more than 20 robotics experts at Tehran University.

State TV said engineers were still developing vision and sound capabilities for the robot, but did not elaborate. It also did not say what tasks the Surena 2 can perform or what it was developed for.

Now I'm not saying the robot should be President. I'm just pondering, given the technological advance v. the statements and actions of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whether it could be.

Here's the latest from the current President:

Four years ago you sanctioned Iran and our industrial export was $6 billion. How much is it now? It's $18 billion. I have faith in your capabilities; I want to tell them again, do you want to sanction Iran again? I promise you that this $18 billion will be $60 billion by the hands of people sitting here, and it will be a slap in their face.

The robot's position on sanctions and Iran's economic progress is, as yet, unknown.

Iran Special: The Green Movement, the Regime, and "the West" (Nabavi)

Journalist and satirist Ebrahim Nabavi writes for Rooz Online:

More than a year has passed since the beginning of the Green Movement. Today, I would like to tell you things about the Green Movement that you might be less aware of.

Firstly, the Green Movement is not a religious movement, but it cannot be called a secular movement either, yet it can be called a non-religious movement with religious leaders. This is one of the ways for the growth of democracy in the Islamic world. The Green Movement is occurring in a religious society, not because we are in love with religion, no, we are not at all fond of a religious society, but we live in reality and whoever tells you that Iran’s future will be a secular society, do not take their comment seriously for the next fifty years. Even after fifty years, only Henry Kissinger will be able to predict tomorrow.

Secondly, the Green Movement has a distinct leadership. Mir Hossein Mousavi is the leader of this Movement, but he and other leaders of the Movement such as [Mohammad] Khatami and Karroubi have never claimed to be the leaders of the Movement, because the leaders of the Movement have a completely reciprocal relationship with its supporters.

Fifty percent of content of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s thoughts, demands, language and words have changed in the past year, not because he lacks a structured thought, but because he has maintained his interaction and dialogue with the supporters and especially the mid-ranked leaders of the Movement.

Thirdly, the Green Movement is a peaceful. If in the past year, thousands of Iranians have been imprisoned, wounded, exiled, tortured and more than a hundred people have been killed on the streets, it is all because of the regime’s fear of the Movement’s expansion and its widespread use of violence against the people. This year on the 12th of June, the people had planned to take to the streets on the anniversary of the coup, but despite article 27 of the constitution, the government did not grant authorisation.

The Green Movement’s goal is not to bring a ten-thousand strong crowd to the street and thus bring about tens of casualties and hundreds of prisoners. When three million people take to the streets, even a great army is incapable of controlling them, but when five thousand people take to the streets, they can be controlled using five hundred people.

Fourthly: The regime is currently faced with many conflicts. After the anniversary of Ayatollah Khomeini’s death which resulted in a dispute between Khomeini’s grandson and Ahmadinejad, a dramatic loss has been occurring in the pro-government camp. A great number of parliament members will return towards the people and sizeable portion of diplomats will probably not return to Iran. Right now, the regime loses between two to five of the leader’s most important aides and on the other side, the Green Movement is able to find more cohesion and is transforming from a chaotic crowd, to a distinct organisation. For a month now, the atmosphere for activity within Iran has opened up and particularly in the cities; there is a chance for the Green Movement to spread the word, especially using graffiti on walls and distributing fliers. All of this is because of an intense dispute among the conservatives themselves. We pray for their disputes to continue.

Fifthly, I said all this to bring the discussion to the issue of media. In Iran, seven channels, tens of radio stations, hundreds of newspapers and thousands of websites working under the supervision of the government, the conservatives, the leader and Ahmadinejad, tell tens of lies every minute. In addition, thirty Persian speaking television stations based in Los Angeles obstruct the people’s thinking by repetitively broadcasting old movies.

On the other hand, the government attacks the internet via filtering and forming the Internet Cyber Army and prevents TV images and radio waves to be reached to the Iranian people through jamming, while independent newspapers have long been shut down. Our main concern is launching a channel for transferring the breath of freedom into the country. For a while now, the Americans have talking of creating a censorship-free internet environment in Iran: Mr [Senator John] McCain is trying very hard in this regard, each time he mentions this, a few more Iranian journalists are arrested, and of course, nothing important happens.

Sixthly, a great constraint for us in launching independent media outside the country is that we cannot receive funds from outside Iran. Using foreign money here is like releasing gazelle into a field with thousands of hunters, some of whom might use tanks to hunt the gazelle. Receiving financial aid from Europe or the United States is like firing a bullet to the head of our colleagues in Iran. Also, my bitter and personal experiences with BBC Persian, VOA, Radio Zamaaneh and Deutsche Welle show that all Persian-language media take into account considerations with respect to their governments.

At times, the damage brought about by a TV station such as the BBC is a thousand times more than its benefits. They have taken away two hundred of our best writers who had hundreds of thousands of readers and turned them into the employees of an organisation which for many years has been viewed with suspicion by those Iranians that believe that the English are responsible for all the evil that occurs in Iran. Besides, the constant intervention of the Europeans in media affairs that are run with European money causes the practical destruction of this media. One those examples are Radio Zamaneh, which has collapsed. After months of efforts, Euronews has still not reached any point and it seems that it has yet to find Persian translators for its employees.

Seventhly, unfortunately, because of using Iranian advisors from previous centuries, many western governments harm the current pro-democracy movement instead of helping it. Three or four years ago, we faced problems for transferring a thousand Euros from France to Belgium because we worked for an opposition website. At the same time, in Europe, millions of Euros of Iranian funds belonging to the regime and the Revolutionary Guards were being used for various purposes that went against legal treaties of the UN. For many years, we have explained that we are not terrorists and in fact oppose terrorism, but the bank’s representative had focused on the word “Iran” which caused us to remove “Iran” from the name of our company.

As we speak, thousands of dollars in Canada and the United States are given to individuals in the name of “helping Iranian journalists”. Nevertheless, not only do these individuals not do anything for the Freedom Movement in Iran, but they effectively create legal dossiers against journalists inside the country. Some right-wing newspapers in Iran are being fed by money provided by you.

Eighthly, the Iranian state uses three methods for preventing any political activity: censorship, causing a lack of trust and obstructing the formation of organisation. These are the three most important measures taken by the Intelligence Ministry. However, our great chance is the internet. In practice and especially under the right conditions, the internet makes up for our three information and intelligence limitations and works for us like an organisation; it eliminates censorship and paves the way for mutual trust.

But the danger of the internet and is our great problem is the penetration of intelligence elements who access our data and are become aware of our plans. This is easier when it come to social networks and more difficult with main inboxes and p websites. Some of the best weapons at the disposal of the Green Movement in Iran are the Balatarin website, Facebook, and Twitter. Despite the fact that the Balatarin website was also used by radical supporters of the government and the radical supporters of a military strike against Iran, it was a powerful source for quickly spreading information and news across the country. In reality, in the past year, the following websites, Balatarin, Facebook, Rooz Online, and Jaras [Rah-e-Sabz] have acted as news websites and have been able to make up for the lack of organisation and to break the atmosphere of censorship. When we took to the streets, we had already spoken our minds on Facebook.

Ninth, despite all the problems that we are facing right now, our work is being followed in Iran because of our use of converting media. Many of our television and internet messages are sent to those lacking access to the internet, via paper fliers and video CDs. Following Ahmadinejad’s 12 June coup, we tried to speak with the media that was close to the people’s ears and through such means; we are currently successful to a certain extent

Tenthly, it might be useful to note that the belief a great number of our friends in the west is based on the belief behind the Islamic Republic’s propaganda. Contrary to the Iranian regime’s propaganda, it is not true that all villagers support Ahmadinejad. Half of them are, and nevertheless, our rural areas account for less than twenty percent of the population of Iran.

Contrary to the prevalent notion, the Freedom Movement of Iran is not a Movement of middle class; it is a completely widespread Movement. Most of the Movement’s casualties and prisoners are from the poor and most of the Army’s commanders are millionaires and billionaires. Mostly because of the current regime in the country, most of the educated are considered as relatively poor by others and the rich class of the country belong to a class of rulers and military and religious figures. Contrary to the prevalent propaganda, the most important group that fight against the regime and struggle for the separation of religion and politics are the moderate religious and Islamo-democratic groups, while a great segment of the government’s supporters’ ties with the state is based on their dependence on government money and they have no religious tendencies.

Eleventh, based on what has been said, we would like to ask those Europeans who think they wish to help us, “Think more about yourselves.” If the bomb that threatens the livelihoods of us as Iranians explodes, it will place the whole planet under threat.

The main problem for Iranians today, is information. We must reflect accurate news inside Iran. In doing so, we might be able to give this news to the entire world too. We do not ask money from you, but try to provide the possibility for breaking free from tyranny. From you as Europeans, we would like to ask you to give us permission to have a television station. We would like you to respond to us a little sooner. We do not want you to have a troubled conscience by asking us “What do you require?” and then abandon us in a cloud of uncertainty. The main requirement for Freedom Movement in Iran is awareness and, specifically, a television channel for conveying the news accurately and completely.

You have experienced the bitter taste of fascism during the Second World War. You know what danger is. We are in the same position as you. Within Iran, the sphere of life is more lively, everything is more dynamic and millions of people want to get rid of the Satan. The mere getting rid of the Satan will suffice, and then, they themselves will choose if they want to enter hell or heaven.

The Latest from Iran (2 July): Ahmadinejad v. Larijani?

1930 GMT: The Battle Within. Back from a break to find what may or may not be a significant incident in the internal tension between the President and Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani.

Iranian Labor News Agency reports that, after Qom Friday Prayers, a number of supporters of the Ahmadinejad Government issued a statement --- signed "People of Hezbollah" --- saying that they no longer regard Larijani as their representative in the Parliament and "want their votes back".

The statement claimed, "“It is said that you voted for Mr. Ahmadinejad’s opponent.”

NEW Iran: Establishing the First “Anti-Censorship Shelter”
NEW Iran Analysis: Assessing Europe’s Sanctions & Tehran’s Oil (Noel)
Iran Interview: Ahmad Batebi “The Green Movement Goes Underground”
The Latest from Iran (1 July): Establishing the Pattern

1755 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. HRANA reports that Hamed Rouhinejad is in critical condition in Evin Prison due to complications related to multiple sclerosis and a lack of proper medical care.

Rouhinejad, a philosophy student, has been in detention since April 2009 on charges of membership in an anti-government organization and has been refused medical leave. He was sentenced to death in a trial last autumn but this was later commuted to 10 years in prison.

The website also writes that authorities in Karaj’s Rajae Shahr Prison have extended Behrouz Javid Tehrani’s time in solitary confinement, which has now lasted more than a month, at the request of the Ministry of Intelligence.

Javid Tehrani is the last remaining political prisoner from the 1999 student protests, the anniversary of which takes place next week.

1420 GMT: Friday Prayers Goes to Penalties Update. Looks like Ayatollah Emami Kashani may have made it through to the next round with a couple of late, hard challenges in his Tehran Friday Prayers sermons (see 1320 GMT).

Having played a conventional, unexciting game, Kashani suddenly got aggressive and put his boot into lawyers: "Defending the false is religiously prohibited and court attorneys should only defend the rightful. When they read a file and realize that the client is not in the right, they should not defend them.”

1415 GMT: Assessing the Situation. The full interview with Professor Ardeshir Amir-Arjomand, an advisor to Mir Hossein Mousavi, which we noted noted this morning (0725 GMT), is now in English.

1320 GMT: Your Friday Prayer Summary. Ayatollah Emami Kashani giving it his best today on the Tehran podium but I'm not sure he is going to eclipse World Cup fever.

Emami Kashani played it safe by going with a bash-the-West approach, "They accuse Iran of [efforts aimed at] producing nuclear weapons while Iran's [nuclear] program is scientific and industrial. Producing nuclear weapons has no place in Iran's nuclear pursuit."

There was the "they're keeping us down line" --- "They are well aware of this but they do not see Muslim states prosper. They do not want Islamic glory and awakening" --- which moved into the rallying call, "[Let's] join hands and through cooperation manage the country's affairs in the best possible way, particularly at present when the enemies are attacking the Islamic Republic with false accusations."

And Kashani went to the tried-and-true of Palestine, notably Gaza: "If Muslim states awaken and fulfill their duties, this land (Palestine) will not be swallowed up by the enemy."

So a competent performance but nothing too creative: I'm not sure if that would get Kashani past the quarter-finals of a major competition.

Then again, when are we likely to see the champions of recent years. e.g., H. Rafsanjani, vie for the Friday Prayers Cup?

1015 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Peyke Iran claims that Ghaemshahr Prison with a capacity of 250 prisoners, now has 763 detainees.

The website also has published this list of detainees in Rejai Shahr Prison:

Behrouz Javid Tehrani, 9 years imprisonment
Kobra Banazadeh, 5 years
Zahra Joushan, 1 year
Mansour Radpour, 8 years
Mansoor Osanloo, 5 years
Alireza Karami-Kheyrabadi, sentenced to death
Heshmatollah Tabarzadi, unclear status
Mostafa Eskandari, unclear status
Masoud Bastani, unclear status
Ahmad Zeyabadi, unclear status
Mehdi Mahmoudian, unclear status
Reza Rafiee, unclear status
Behnam Foyuji, unclear status
Rassoul Bodaghi, unclear status
Isa Saharkhiz, unclear status
Davoud Soleymani, unclear status
Ali Saremi, sentenced to death
Mohammad Ali Mansouri, 17 years of prison
Saeed Massouri, lifetime sentence
Houd Yazorlou, 3 years
Meyslogh Yazdannejad, 13 years
Ali Moubedi, 3 years
Afshin Baymani, lifetime sentence
Seyed Mehdi Fetrat, 3 years
Karim Marouf-Aziz, lifetime sentence
Hossein Tofah, 15 years
Shir-Mohammad Rezaie, 4 years
Farhang Pour-Mansouri, lifetime sentence
Reza Joushan, 1 year
Shahram Pour-Mansouri, lifetime sentence
Nasseh Yousefi, 5 years
Esmail Ordouie, 15 years

1010 GMT: More on the Drug Issue (see 0915 GMT). Abbas Deylamizadeh, the head of an Iranian welfare organisation, claims 300,000 poor drug users are in danger of becoming street addicts.

1005 GMT: The Battle Within. Hojatoleslam Mohammad Ashrafi Esfahani has warned that "radicals", with their unwillingness to discussion, have divided the "hard-line" camp in Iran, splitting it into two groups.

0959 GMT: The Budget Battle. The Parliament has passed President Ahmadinejad's 5th Plan on Monday with the cancellation of three articles. One of the cancelled provisions would have given the President millions in spending for "cultural purposes". Ahmadinejad's representatives reportedly were offended and left the session.

0955 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. Rah-e-Sabz reports that the Kuwaiti Independent Oil Group has joined the international suspension of gasoline sales to Iran.

0945 GMT: Labour Front. Peyke Iran claims that dismissed workers in Sanandaj in Kurdistan have gathered in front of the work ministry and that workers of Tabriz Tile Company have not been paid for four months.

0940 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. RAHANA reports that detained student Zia Nabavi is in serious condition after hysteria and convulsions in Evin Prison.

0915 GMT: "Psyche Spinners" in Tehran. Writing for The Huffington Post, Setareh Sabety takes a look at disillusionment and drug use in Iran's capital.

0910 GMT: The Labour Front. Iran Labor Report claims that many Tehran Bus Company employees with more than 20 years of service have been offered a "buyout" of $15,000. The website adds that, to put pressure on  the workers, the company has moved depots farther from the city and even to other cities such as Karaj while reducing employee bus shuttles.

Human Rights and Democracy Activists in Iran asserts the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps is starting a takeover of the company with purchase of buses and new bus lines. The chief executive of the company is alleged to be Revolutionary Guards commander Ardeshir Moghimpour, using the pseudonym Hossein Bijani.

There is still no news from detained bus union members Saeed Torabian and Reza Shahabi.

0905 GMT: We have posted a separate feature on the establishment of the world's first "anti-censorship shelter".

0735 GMT: The Oil Front. Amidst our discussion today of Iran's energy sector, a point to note about its internal production: Deutsche Welle claims that a fire at the Naft Shahr wells is still burning 40 days after it started.

And, with thanks to EA readers, another item about foreign investment: "South Korea's GS Engineering & Construction ( said on Thursday that it has called off a 1.42 trillion won ($1.2 billion) gas project in Iran following sanctions on the Middle East nation."

0730 GMT: The Battle Within. The Motalefeh party, fighting back against pressure from Ahmadinejad supporters, has asserted its "good" credentials, declaring that the hope for leaders of "fitna" (sedition") to return to the Revolution has faded.

0725 GMT: Challenging the Radicals. Mohammad Salamati, secretary-general of the reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution, says that radicals have "no real understanding of leading a country". Professor Ardeshir Amir-Arjomand claims "hardliners" are implementing a new constitution and declares that an independent media is needed.

Those criticisms do not appear to have had any effect, however, on Gholam-Hossein Elham, a member of the Guardian Council. He says those who want to change the religious regime into a secular state, on the basis of the Constitution and "wrong" reformist currents, are a symbol of division.

0715 GMT: Nuclear Front. Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Andrei Nesterenko has announced that the P5+1 group (US, UK, Russia, France, Germany, China) will meet today in Brussels.

0605 GMT: We start today with a look at Iran's economic position and sanctions. In a separate feature, Pierre Noël looks at Europe's sanctions and their effect on Iran's oil and gas sectors.

The Christian Science Monitor runs with the "Ahmadinejad bans Coca-Cola" story, which links up with Tehran's public spin of defiance: Press TV is headlining, "Iran Sanctions May Hit Japanese Firms".

More significantly, Press is featuring a sign of hope amidst the growing international pressure on Iran. Turkey's Energy and Natural Resources Minister Taner Yildiz said in an interview, "Turkey will continue to cooperate with Iran because the sanctions did not include any specific restriction on energy deals....Energy is not part of the UN sanctions."

Oh, I guess we should also mention that President Obama has signed the new US legislation passed by Congress earlier this week: "With these sanctions --- along with others --- we are striking at the heart of the Iranian government's ability to fund and develop its nuclear programmes."

Obama added:

To date, Iran has chosen the path of defiance. The door to diplomacy remains open. Iran can prove that its intentions are peaceful. It can meet its obligations under the [nuclear non-proliferation treaty) and achieve the security and prosperity worthy of a great nation.