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Entries in Iran (69)

Thursday
Jul082010

Iran Document: Mousavi on UN Sanctions & Ahmadinejad Government (7 July)

From Kalemeh, translated by Negar Irani:

Unfortunately, the Security Council's resolution 1929 was finally passed. This resolution and other resolutions could have easily been avoided had we used some tact and wisdom.

If we are discussing this resolution today, it is not to pour further salt on a wound, rather because ignoring the consequences of this resolution will only make matters worse. Even if we state that this resolution is a pretext, it does not minimize the effects of tumultuous and manipulative policies. Of course swearing at and insulting other countries may have an effect on a small domestic audience with limited awareness; however, in reality it does nothing but further deteriorate the situation outside our borders.

Unfortunately, unlike certain politicians in our country who put their own personal interests above that of our country's national interests, we doubt that the authorities of the countries imposing sanctions on us define their own interests outside the framework of their country's national interests. I am hopeful that our nation paid close attention to the vulgar response given by Russia's Foreign Minister to one of the speakers. In his response he pointed to a fact that has been repeatedly witnessed in international relations, mainly that for Russia (and other countries, such as the United States, China, Turkey, Brazil and others) the most important criteria is protecting Russia's national interests --- although understanding this simple point seems to be difficult for those [in our country] who are unfortunately too wrapped up in their own short-term interests to even notice it.

To me, however, it abundantly clear that this resolution is going to have an adverse effect on our country's security and economy. It will lead to a reduction in our GDP, higher unemployment, and more economic and social pressures on our people, and it will result in a widening of the gap between the development of our country vis-a vis our neighboring countries, in effect, serving as the last nail in the coffin that was being prepared over the past twenty years. Anyone with any common sense will know that the passing of this resolution will only lead to the further isolation and vulnerability of our country.

The fate of other countries in the region that have proudly fallen for the empty rhetoric of such short-sighted nations is a pitiful fate of which we should all be conscious.

Currently, it is important to focus on solutions that will minimize the threats to our independence, territorial integrity, and the legitimate rights of our country. It goes without saying that safeguarding our freedom and the rights of our citizens and defending our national security will not be possible without the free and informed consent of our citizens. Green social networks must focus on solutions designed to safeguard us from this undesirable event.

Before pointing out some of these possible solutions, it is important that we condemn this cruel and unnecessary resolution. We are being condemned while Palestinian land is still easily occupied by others who are given the right to nuclear bombs, while we are deprived of the right to use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. Surely this resolution is against our country. We must nevertheless also keep our eyes open to the effects of other existing, chaotic, and adventurous policies.

1. The first and most essential solution to countering this resolution is to ensure that our nation is informed in an honest and forthright manner. It is our people's right to better understand the details of this resolution and the additional sanctions that are being added to it. Our people need to understand the effects of these sanctions on the unemployment rate, on inflation, on our GDP, and on the ability of our nation to progress. In other words, they need to understand how it affects their bottom line. Referring to this resolution as a torn piece of paper is not going to solve the problems and challenges facing our nation. If our people have to face and fight an adversity that was not of their choosing, we must at least gain their trust; a trust that will only be developed through transparency and a government that is truthful and forthright.

2. One of the points of our people must be made aware is the predictable security risks resulting from this new resolution. Many of our citizens are unaware of extent of the dangers associated with the path that we have fallen into due to ignorance and exaggeration. The witty rants and boasts by certain individuals pretending that nothing has happened is nothing but betrayal of our people.

If our nation’s readiness is the most important element in fighting the potential dangers we face, then it is incumbent upon us to inform them as much as possible about the potential security consequences associated with the current situation we find ourselves in. If this is too difficult a task for those responsible for our government, they should at least allow non-government media outlets to freely inform our citizens of the necessary analysis with compassion and without exaggeration of the facts.

3. These new conditions require that we expand the current limited circle of advisors to the nuclear issue. As far as I am aware, unlike the era when Mr. Khatami was President, we currently have less people and individuals with far less experience than in the past, handling this sensitive matter. One of the main reasons why we find ourselves in this undesirable and critical position is due to this limited circle of advisers.

Governments of countries that have dealt with the nuclear issue successfully, in addition to having legitimacy, observe national alliances, building upon collective and even relative consensus. What is wrong with allowing our country's Parliament to make decisions with regards to the principles governing our country's nuclear policy the same way they made decisions with regards to the American hostages? Instead, our Parliament is left with no recourse but to come up with last-minute, dictated legislation designed to justify the incorrect decision-making processes of our government.

Why is it that a select few are making secretive decisions about matters that affect the future of our entire nation? Were our people not supposed to be in charge of their own destiny? Why should our people be in agreement with every decision we make? Are the principles associated with referendum meaningless in our society to the extent that every time some one refers to them they have to face a barrage of insults and threats? Should we not instead allow our people to be involved in sensitive and important decisions that affect our entire nation?

4. Under the current conditions, a rift between the people and the government will only result in a higher risk of danger from foreign influences and those with bad intentions. The rigged elections, the oppression that occurred after the elections, the mismanagement and corruption, and the deceitful and confusing economic and cultural policies have led to a crisis and lack of confidence in the government and a distancing of the people from the ruling powers.

Today, more than ever it is vital that we begin to pay attention to and address the solutions that were set forth in the Green Movement's statement #17 [on 1 January 2010]. A repressive and illegitimate government that is at war with its own people is ill-equipped to effectively deal with foreign threats. Under these circumstances, they [the illegitimate ruling government] have to either pay an unfair ransom or put the country at imminent risk.

As a result, creating a safe backdrop for free, fair, competitive and non-selective elections, and ensuring freedom of press, freedom of political prisoners, taking care of the families of those martyred and harmed becomes even more vital. If our people are our main asset for dealing with the serious situation we currently face, then their opinion and viewpoint should be respected. Before making any decisions, we must carefully consider the impact of these decisions on the lives of teachers, white-collar workers, labourers, salaried workers, the poor, and all those working hard to make a living in our society. It is not fair to have the youth who are seeking jobs pay the price of arbitrary and adventurous decisions made by the government.

Let us all bear witness to a bunch of hollering, baton-carrying thugs who do nothing but threaten the lives, livelihood, and dignity of our people in broad daylight and speak of bombarding our Parliament in broad daylight, all under the pretext of pro-government support. Is this how we run the world?

5. Fostering hatred, creating enemies, and continuing factional killings have only led to the regime becoming even more empty-handed. A brief look at the events that took place in New York and Geneva last year only shed more light on the weakness of this government. To overcome this dangerous crisis of management in our country will have to utilize every capacity at our disposal. The danger we face is significant enough that referring to important personalities such as Mr. Hashemi [Rafsanjani], Khatami, Rohani, Aghazadeh, Larijani, and others is a necessity. Is it not unfortunate that our former president [Mohammad Khatami, someone with wide international support and respect] would be prevented from traveling abroad, when his presence would have been instrumental in defending our nation's rights when it comes to nuclear technology? Everyone in our country is aware of the fact that most of the qualified managers and individuals who should be used as an elite force to run the country when in crisis have been excluded from all important policy making decisions. How should we view this obvious, extremely concerning, and controversial reality?

6. The current activities of the IRGC (Sepah) [Islamic Revolution Guards Corps] are questionable to say the least. On the one hand the IRGC and Basiji forces are aiming their weapons directly at the people of our nation instead of at our enemies, playing a key role in the oppression and interrogation of political forces and those opposing the regime. On the other hand the IRGC has also become involved in our nation's economy in an unprecedented manner.

Certainly, restoring the IRGC's original responsibilities will lead to reviving the honorable role of this institution as defenders of our sacred nation. It will also reduce the dangers resulting from greed and malice, enable a more healthy economy, reduce corruptio,n and further encourage the private sector. An IRGC that is more concerned with the volatility of the dollar on the open market and interference in the affairs of banking, the stock market and export and import contracts cannot be trusted with the security of our nation and our revolution.

Unfortunately we are currently witnessing the deterioration of popular support for the IRGC. If this trend continues, it is foreseeable that the IRGC will become exceedingly more interested in defending its own interest in the stocks of companies and institutions in which it is invested rather than defending our nation. Eventually this interest will transform them into authoritarian power that works against the best interest of our nation. If love and trust of the armed forces is considered one of their greatest assets, today the activities of the IRGC as it relates to the economy and our security have led to the significant decrease of their social capital.

We all know that the brave and chivalrous forces within the IRGC are fed up with this type of behavior. Let us not forget the people's hatred of the financial and security institutions during the time of the monarchy and to what extent they were instrumental in the people's anger. As a result of the resolution and sanctions imposed on our country, reviewing the role of the IRGC and Basiji should be a key concern for everyone looking for the best interest of our nation, regardless of our background or affiliation. Here I would like to also reiterate that the attack of the Basiji on Mr. Karroubi and Khatami , the events that occurred on 4 June of this year [the shout-down of Seyed Hassan Khomeini at the ceremony for his late grandfather] and the recent attack and insult of our parliament only further facilitates the interests and goals of those who have imposed the sanctions on our country.

7. The last point we need to focus on is that the sanctions are not designed to bring the government to its knees. If we look back at the experience of 19 August 1953 [the overthrow of Iran's Mossadegh Government] and the bitter fate of Iraq and Afghanistan in contemporary history, it should serve as a clear warning that some governments see their own survival in the continuation of this crisis and in intensified hostilities and that they even go as far as encouraging the use of a military offensive.

It is up to the Green movement to create reconciliation by remaining true to its principles while confronting this clear risk. Resistance to potential foreign threats and invasion is a necessity and ashould be an area of focus for the Green Movement. We must demonstrate to our people that the way out of this crisis is to return to the principles and solutions presented by the Green movement since its inception a year ago. The Green Movement should use its influence and power in the international arena to show foreign powers that it will not allow them to take advantage of the weakness and illegitimacy of the current ruling government and harm the territorial integrity and interests of our nation.

The Green Movement will continue to focus on building awareness within all sectors of our society and in doing so will not allow the oppressors [ruling government] to escape from accountability and responsibility towards our nation by creating a crisis and unnecessary military conflict. We will continue to fight the systematic suppression and intimidation of opponents of this government and will not allow them [the ruling government] to focus on their own short-term interests and in doing so compromise our national interests.
Thursday
Jul082010

The Latest from Iran (8 July): Criticisms

1633 GMT: We have posted the English translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement on Wednesday about UN sanctions, foreign policy, and the weaknesses and abuses of the Ahmadinejad Government.

1630 GMT: A Message from Evin Prison. A Green website has posted what it claims is a message from student leader Majid Tavakoli for 18 Tir (9 July), the 11th anniversary of university demonstrations.

NEW Iran Document: Mousavi on UN Sanctions & Ahmadinejad Government (7 July)
NEW Iran Snap Analysis: The Wave of Economic Discontent?
NEW Iran Analysis: Crisis…What Crisis? (Verde)
NEW Iran’s New Haircut Law: First Culprit Identified!
The Latest from Iran (7 July): Mousavi's Intervention


1530 GMT: The Universities Crisis. Hamid Farokhnia at Tehran Bureau offers an extensive review of the political battle over Islamic Azad University from 2006 to the present.

1525 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. Oil traders said Iran is buying about half of its gasoline imports in July from Turkey and the rest from Chinese suppliers.

Traders estimate Iran will import around 90,000 barrels per day of gasoline in July, steady from June.

1520 GMT: Labour Front. More than 180 workers at Alborz China Manufacturing Company in Qazvin, staged a protest in front of the factory gates on Tuesday. The workers claim they are owed wages for more than six months.

1515 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran claims that Iranian authorities are victimizing political prisoners by subjecting them to dangerously unhealthy prison conditions and refusing them medical treatment when they become ill.

Spokesperson Hadi Ghaemi said, “Iran is targeting prisoners of conscience by subjecting them to overcrowding, disease, inadequate accommodations, insanitary conditions, malnutrition, and lack of access to medical care.”

1445 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Peyke Iran is claiming that the strike in the Tehran Bazaar has continued into a third day, despite the detention of one of the leaders (see 0755 GMT).

This is claimed footage of a strike today in the rug market in Tabriz:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5TdKg17rvU[/youtube]

And the bazaar in Mashaad:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQ0F3NSDnMk[/youtube]

1435 GMT: Condemning the Stoning. Foreign intervention in the case of Sakineh Mohammadi-Ashtiani, the woman sentenced to death by stoning for adultery....

Britain's Foreign Office Minister Alistair Burt has called on Iran to put an immediate stay to the execution. On Tuesday, Norway's State Secretary Espen Barth Eide summoned the Iranian Ambassador, Seyed Hossein Rezvani, to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to denounce Mohammadi-Ashtiani's sentence and that of Mohammad Reza Haddadi, condemned to death for an crime allegedly committed when he was a minor.

1430 GMT: Back from an extended break for work with the Journal of American Studies. Many thanks to readers for keeping news and analysis flowing....

0808 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rah-e-Sabz features the letter of Hashem Khastar, union activist and retired teacher, to Iran's judiciary on the "human catastrophe" in the prisons.

0805 GMT: The Battle Within. Conservative MP Hossein Ghafouri-Fard has said that the atmosphere is still "too agitated" for establishing a new political party.

0800 GMT: Counter-attack. The President's judicial deputy, Fatemeh Bodaghi, has asserted that Government complaints against the office of Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf are still at a "preliminary stage".

0755 GMT: The Bazaar Strike. Rah-e-Sabz, in a lengthy overview of the strike in the Tehran Bazaar, claims that protests continued yesterday with shouts such as "Death to the Dictator!". The website also asserts that one leader of the strike was taken away by security and plainclothes forces to an unknown location.

0745 GMT: Protest Then, Protest Now. More than 30 Iranian students' organisations based overseas have issued a statement for the 11th anniversary of student demonstrations on 18 Tir (9 July) and holding up the university as "a pillar of civil society".

0725 GMT: Mousavi's Statement. Green Voice of Freedom has an extended English summary of the comments by Mir Hossein Mousavi on sanctions, the economy, and the mismanagement of the Government.

0700 GMT: We begin this morning with a snap analysis moving between the latest statement of Mir Hossein Mousavi and the strike in the Tehran Bazaar, "The Wave of Economic Discontent".

That, however, is only a snapshot of the latest tensions. Consider....

Parliament v. President

Alef summarises the latest criticisms by principlist member of Parliament, Ahmad Tavakoli, in a Tuesday speech in the Majlis. Tavakoli attacked the "inefficiency" and "weakness" of the Ahmadinejad Government and, getting specific about the post-election crisis, wondered when someone would be held accountable for the Kahrizak prison abuses.

An EA correspondent adds that, in an online poll by Khabar Online asking about Tavakoli's attack on the "lawlessness" of Ahmadinejad, "only" 89% agreed with the member of Parliament. (The somewhat tongue-in-cheek assessment of our correspondent should also be accompanied by the reminder that Khabar Online is linked to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, the cousin of Tavakoli.)

Calling the Government to Account

Member of Parliament Assadollah Badamchian has insisted that the Article 90 Commission of the Majlis has the right to question the President about his management and handling of laws.

Hojatoleslam Hossein Sobhani-nia has asserted that the Minister of Interior minister could be summoned to the Majlis over the recent Basiji/student protests against Parliament's legislation on Islamic Azad University.

In contrast, MP Bijan Nobaveh has declared that accusing the Government of "rowdyism" is "treacherous" behaviour.
Wednesday
Jul072010

The Latest from Iran (7 July): Mousavi's Intervention

1900 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Bail for human rights activist Abdolreza Ahmadi, detained in March, has been set at $150,000.

1820 GMT: The Bazaar Strike and Government Climb-Down. The Los Angeles Times has a good overview of yesterday's developments over the stoppage in the Tehran Bazaar and the Government's reversal of a proposed increase in business tax.

NEW Iran Analysis: Crisis…What Crisis? (Verde)
NEW Iran’s New Haircut Law: First Culprit Identified!
Iran Document: The Mousavi-Khatami Meeting (5 July)
The Latest from Iran (6 July): Compromise?


1815 GMT: Mousavi on Sanctions (and the Economy and the Revolutionary Guard). Agence France Presse offers a useful summary of today's statement by Mir Hossein Mousavi (see 1430 GMT).

Mousavi, in a direct manipulation of the President's words, declared, "To say that this resolution is like a 'used hankie' will not ease the hardships arising from demagogic policies, as it is clear to me that this resolution will affect our nation's security and economy."

Mousavi continued by noting the impact of sanctions and hitting at the Government's folly for bringing Iran down on both the international and economic fronts:
This oppressive resolution ... will decrease GDP, increase unemployment, create more hardships for people and widen the gap between us and other developing nations, especially our neighbours.

[The Iranian people] should know the effect of this resolution ... on their livelihood, inflation, the nation's progress and security. If people are asked to resist (sanctions), then their trust should be earned by telling them the truth.

Mousavi then linked economic woes to the intervention of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps,  "Bringing Sepah [the IRGC] back to its main responsibilities can decrease the greed of enemies ... and decrease the wave of corruption," he said.

1500 GMT: Rumour of Day. Iran Press News is claiming that the Tehran Bazaar, amidst this week's strike by some traders, is under heavy security. It claims there was an attack by men in plainclothes, with one merchant killed.

1430 GMT: A Double Intervention from Mousavi. Mir Hossein Mousavi has followed his Monday meeting with former President Mohammad Khatami with a further comment.

In a note on the recent UN Security Council resolution sanctioning Iran's nuclear programme, Mousavi extends remarks from the Monday meeting that the UN is wrongfully punishing Iran and adds that this is a product of the Ahmadinejad Government's wayward foreign policy.

Mousavi's website Kalemeh publishes a long editorial explaining that Mousavi does not believe church and state should be separates in the development of the Islamic Republic. The editorial is in part a response to an article in the Los Angeles Times that claimed Mousavi, in his recent "Green Charter", had advocated a secular Iranian system. (It is not stated what role, if any, Mousavi played in the writing and publication of the editorial.)

0840 GMT: The Bazaar Strike. Claimed video of yesterday's strike, protesting at a proposed 70% in business taxes, by merchants in the Tehran Bazaar:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCSSy4HZP-U[/youtube]

0700 GMT: We have two contrasting features this morning. Mr Verde takes a long look at the significant anti-Ahmadinejad intervention by MP Ahmad Tavakoli and the Islamic Azad University dispute to ponder, "Crisis...What Crisis?".

If you prefer your news tongue-in-cheek, our top EA news spies have uncovered the first violator of Iran's new guidelines for men's haircuts.

0610 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An appeals court has upheld the six-year prison sentence of reformist activist and journalist Keyvan Samimi Behbahani, who has also been barred from political, social and cultural activities for 15 years.

Samimi Behbahani is the managing director of the banned publication Nameh and is also a member of the committee in charge of investigating the unlawful arrest of individuals.

An appeals court has approved the three-year prison sentence handed down to Arman Rezakhani.

0515 GMT: As the 11th anniversary of the 1999 student protests approaches, there is talk of some public demonstration linking the past to the present challenge to the regime. For the moment, however, this is just a ripple. Monday's Mousavi-Khatami statement, from what we can gather, seems to have brought little reaction: the summary of the meeting is more a declaration of the "Iranian" legitimacy of the opposition's politics --- the most striking passage is the criticism of international sanctions and "Western" support for terrorism --- than a call for public resistance.

Protest, however, is never far from the surface, for Iran is far more than a Green v. Government scenario. International attention is riveted by the growing campaign to halt the stoning of Sakineh Mohammadie Ashtiani for adultery.

Inside Iran, the most striking result on Tuesday was the apparent success of merchants in the Tehran Bazaar. A sudden shut-down by some textile vendors --- there was also news of closures in the jewellry market --- seems to have brought a reversal of plans for a 70% increase in business tax.

On the labour front, the Tehran and Suburbs Bus Drivers Union has again strongly condemned the arrest and intimidation of members Saeed Torabian and Reza Shahabi.

And, far from least, the battle within continues. Later this morning we'll have an analysis of the latest "protest" of Ahmad Tavakoli --- key member of Parliament and ally of Speaker Ali Larijani --- against the Government and President Ahmadinejad.
Wednesday
Jul072010

Israel-US Analysis: Netanyahu Wins --- 1, 2, 3, 4 Times --- in Talks With Obama (Yenidunya)

Finally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has had his meeting with Barack Obama, an encounter described by the US President as "excellent".

Both leaders pointed to four main topics in their private talks, but the most striking note in Obama's speech was his emphasis on "Israel's security", mentioned eight times, crowned by "the U.S.'s unwavering commitment to Israel's security" and an underlining of the "unbreakable bonds" between two countries.

Palestine Analysis: Assessing Direct Talks between Israel & the Palestinian Authority
Israel Video & Transcript: The Netanyahu-Obama Meeting (6 July)


First of all, there was Gaza. Obama did not criticise Israel's misconduct over the clash with the Freedom Flotilla. He did not mention West Jerusalem's pursuit of an internal enquiry, defying calls for an impartial, international investigation. But he did praise Israel's "real progress" with the widening of the list of goods permitted entry into Gaza.

Secondly, the "Iranian threat". Both leaders praised national and international sanctions. Then, Netanyahu added the title "the biggest threat" to Tehran and called on all those in the United Nations to increase the effectiveness of the sanctions, especially on the energy sector.

Thirdly, Israel's nuclear arsenals. Although nearly 200 signatories of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), including the US, agreed in May to work towards a nuclear-weapons-free zone in the Middle East, Obama stated that there is no change in U.S. policy on West Jerusalem's officially undeclared stockpile of nuclear arms:  "Israel has unique security requirements!"

Lastly, the talks with the Palestinian Authority. Obama's agenda is crystal-clear: both sides will present confidence-building measures. Included in this is a messsage to the Palestinians not to make any demand for a freeze on construction of Israeli settlements in the West Bank,  as this will lead to "more room created by more trust".

Then, the parties will move to direct talks. The precedent has been set by this week's  meetingin Jerusalem between Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and the Palestinian Authority's Salam Fayyad. In that meeting, Fayyad asked for more space and duties for a Palestinian security force, consolidating the Palestinian Authority's legitimacy. Obama offered support:
Abu Mazen [Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas], working with Fayyad, has done some very significant things when it comes to the security front.  And so us being able to widen the scope of their responsibilities in the West Bank is something that I think would be very meaningful to the Palestinian people.

Obama, when asked if  there would be an extension of the construction freeze in the West Bank, merely stated that parties should engage in direct talks so that they can trust each other through confidence-building measures.

It is both interesting and unusual that Washington expects Ramallah to be "more pragmatic"over West Bank settlements  while presuming that this will have no effect in its legitimacy, both in the eyes of its rivals and of its people.

The one explanation that might account for this American position is that both Israel and the Palestinian Authority have already agreed in principle to a proposal for a swap of land for 2.3 percent of the West Bank, Israel's sovereignty over the Western Wall and the Jewish Quarter of the Old City, and East Jerusalem as the capital of a future Palestinian state. With that deal in the pockets of neogtiators, direct talks will be brief and the parties can go to a final stage of discussions.

Is it really that easy? Or did Benjamin Netanyahu just post some big victories --- 1, 2, 3, and 4 --- on the lawn of the White House?
Wednesday
Jul072010

Iran Analysis: Crisis...What Crisis? (Verde)

Mr Verde writes for EA:

With his declaration this week, it looks like Ahmad Tavakoli --- leading conservative member of Parliament, former Minister of Labor, former Presidential candidate, cousin of Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani and head of Iran's judiciary Sadegh Larijani --- has crossed the Rubicon of resistance. What else coud the following mean?
How does the President permit himself to refuse to follow a laws that he does not think is in his interest or even worse to say to astonished viewers on TV that I will not implement it?

How else can Tavakoli declare that Ahamadinejad “is teaching others to disobey the law”?

Tavakoli is reported to have complained about the post-election abuses in Kahrizak Prison, the attacks on student dormitories, and the corruption cases against high-ranking government officials with corruption case (a clear reference to 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi).

Tavakoli also listed Ahmadinejad’s illegal actions. Moreover, it is reported that Tavakoli said that, to impeach the President,a 2/3 majority of the Parliament is needed. Thirteen months into the post-election crisis, this is the first time anyone in authority has dared speak of Ahmadinejad's removal.

The Islamic Azad University dispute may have been the catalyst for latest developments.

The argument between Parliament and President had been fought for some time, so it is likely that this week's intervention by the Supreme Leader was a reluctant one. Although his verdict was that the status of the university remain unchanged for now, the outcome can be seen as a victory for former Hashemi Rafsanjani.

After all, Khamenei had consistently allowed Ahmadinejad to attack Rafsanjani and had refused to intervene on Rafsanjani’s behalf, even when the latter had requested the Supreme Leader's involvement. In his Friday Prayer sermon a week after the election, Khameni said that, although he had been friends with Rafsanjani for decades, but Ahmadinejad was now closer to him.

The fact that Khamenei has now been forced to intervene in the university crisis with two official orders is a sign that, after a long time, Rafsanjani and his allies have managed to force Khamenei into stopping or slowing down Ahamdinejad’s march on their territory. The cancellation of the meeting of the Supreme Council for Cultural Revolution and the retention of Ahmad Jasbi, a close ally of Rafsanjani, as Islamic Azad's chancellor, is also a slap-down of Ahmadinejad.

A panel led by the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has been set up to look into the SCCR’s decision about Azad University --- which backed the President --- and to report its findings as soon as possible. With a panel endorsement of the SCCR, the dispute can still go Ahmadinejad’s way, but for now he has been slowed down.

These manoeuvres could have created the space for Tavakoli to attack Ahmadinejad in a statement in the Parliament. The location is notable: speeches in the Majlis are documented and become part of the country’s national archive).

There are other signs that all is not well. Some Tehran Bazaar merchants went on strike Tuesday about new taxes. The stoppage is not new --- there was a similar event two years ago --- but by the end of the day the government agreed to scrap the taxes.

The "retreat", as it is already being labelled by reformists, comes at a time when the Government needs to show that it is strong, authoritative, and cannot be pushed around by the closing of shops for a few hours. You would have thought that the Iranian authorities would have at least waited a few days and made the pretence of investigating the grievances before giving in. The episode has left the government looking like pushovers.

Crisis…what crisis?