China's Economy This Week: Exchange Rates, Growth, and Tariffs

Exchange Rate Reform: The Chinese central bank's declaration of further reform of the exchange rate has been welcomed by other countries and international organizations such as International Monetary Fund.

"Now China is reforming its RMB exchange rate regime and further improving its managed floating RMB exchange rate system," said Zhang Tao, International Department director with the central bank of China.

From July 2005, China has moved towards a managed floating exchange rate.



China "to Maintain Steady, Rapid Growth": China's economy is very likely to maintain steady and rapid growth in 2010, but it still faces a complex domestic and international situation, the People's Bank of China, China's central bank, said Wednesday.

It is imperative to continue support for economic restructuring and transformation of growth, the central bank said.

China and US Raise Anti-Dumping Duties: China said Monday it would impose anti-dumping duties ranging from 6.1 percent to 26 percent on certain iron or steel fasteners imported from the European Union beginning Tuesday.

The Ministry of Commerce said China's domestic industry of manufacturing certain iron or steel fasteners had suffered substantial damages caused by the EU's dumping of these products in Chinese domestic markets and the tariffs would last for a period of five years.

Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department Monday set final anti-dumping duties on imports of some $55.92 million woven electric blankets from China, a move might escalate trade disputes between the two countries.

The US International Trade Commission is scheduled to issue its final injury determination on or before 9 August.

Rising Industrial Profit & Revenue: Profits of China's industrial enterprises jumped 81.6 percent year-on-year for the first five months of 2010, China's National Bureau of Statistics said.

Profits of the industrial firms totaled 1.54 trillion yuan ($226.82 billion) from January to May, and revenues increased 38.2 percent to 25.35 trillion yuan. State-owned industrial firms accounted for more than one third of the total profit, reaching 524.38 billion yuan, 118.9 percent higher than the same period last year.

China is expected to receive 8 trillion yuan ($1.18 trillion) in financial revenue by the end of 2010, State broadcaster CCTV reported

If that happens, China will become the second-largest country in terms of income, trailing only the US.

The Latest from Iran (3 July): Fussing and Feuding

2155 GMT: Taking on the Brides. What better way to close a Saturday night than to pick up on the latest triumph of Iran's morality authorities? Mehr News reports that a bridal exhibition in Shiraz has been shut down.

2145 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. A reminder that the brothers Arash and Kamiar Alaei, two doctors prominent in the treatment of HIV/AIDS through the triangular clinic system, have entered their third year of detention.

1940 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Azeri activist Hassan Rahimi Bayat was arrested today at work.

HRANA reports that Peyman Karimi-Azad, detained on Ashura, is in a diabetic coma in Evin Prison after being denied treatment.

NEW Iran Special: The Escalating Crisis Within (Verde)
Iran: Establishing the First “Anti-Censorship Shelter”
Iran Analysis: Assessing Europe’s Sanctions & Tehran’s Oil (Noel)
The Latest from Iran (2 July): Ahmadinejad v. Larijani?

1920 GMT: Economic Front. An interesting revelation about Iran's current economic tensions: while those with higher degrees from universities are 15.1% of the country's workforce, they make up 25.5% of the unemployed.

1910 GMT: Khamenei's "Guidelines" for Filmmakers. The Los Angeles Times picks up on another aspect of the Supreme Leader's statement to those involved in Iranian media (see 1540 GMT), his instructions for suitable movies:

Our film directors should offer products in which positive points eclipse negative and dark points of our society. If you magnify negative points, the society will plunge into disenchantment.

As for censorship, well.... "Sometimes, our artists raise unrealistic concerns about the [restrictions] they face in producing critical films. Some...criticisms against films and television series are correct and they have to respect certain moral, religious and cultural red lines. Transgressing these red lines will be extremely harmful."

So, for example, filmmakers had to keep on their moral toes --- "foreign networks are undertaking incessant efforts to invade chastity and hijab in a bid to destroy the foundation of families in Iran" --- and mind their political manners:

In all products, you should take into consideration the ongoing political events, specifically the animosity of bullying powers against the Iranian nation. Those who claim to be friends of Iran have proven their enmity to our history and culture by their anti-Iranian films. Under such circumstances, any politically motivated show has to be performed carefully not to play into the hands of enemies.

1905 GMT: Which Is More Dangerous: Computers or Guns? The answer of Iran's police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam is that "internet terrorism" menaces the Iranian nezam (system).

To which an EA correspondent replies, " And killing people doesn't?"

1655 GMT: Morality Message of Day. Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, often seen as the "spiritual mentor" of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad but now a possible critic of the President's recent comments on the "morality police", has said: "If a boy and a girl do something against morals, they should be punished with 100 lashes."

1649 GMT: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Financial Mis-Manager? Peyke Iran publishes a list of "financial irregularities", from the Tehran municipal budget of 2005 (when Ahmadinejad was mayor) to $14 billion not allocated to the national treasury in the 2008 budget.

1645 GMT: The Universities Crisis. Press TV publishes an English version of the Guardian Council's slap-down of Parliament over control (labelled as "funding") of Islamic Azad University: "Aside from religious and constitutional violations, and ambiguities that are evident in the different parts of this legislation, because this bill necessitates entering the Supreme Council of Cultural Revolution (SCCR)'s domain of authority, therefore, it is against Sharia law and in violation of articles 57, and 110 of the Constitution."

In other words, Parliament is subordinate to the SCCR, which is largely seen as an enforcement arm of the Government.

1640 GMT: Holland Blackout on IRIB. The planned visit to Dutch networks by an Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting delegation, including its head, Ezatollah Zarghami, has been cancelled after protests by Iranian expatriates and Dutch legislators and media.

1635 GMT: A Clerical Critique. Ayatollah Hashemzadeh-Herissi of Khobregan has asserted that some people are caught up in security and thus act irresponsibly. He added that it is impossible to read some Iranian media because they are "full of lies" and that "values are mistreated in the name of Islam".

1620 GMT: Parliament's Counter-Attack. In the aftermath of the distributing of leaflets by Ahmadinejad supporters denouncing Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, prominent member of Parliament Gholam-Reza Mesbahi-Moghaddam has warned the critics and opponents of Larijani to back off.

Larijani ally Ahmad Tavakoli has pointed to a disruptive current that "tries to blacken all forces within the nezam (Iranian system)".

And Ali Motahari, now prominently leading the fight against the President, has said that Ahmadinejad "cannot stand criticism". He accused the President of "furnishing" the group of protestors that challenged Parliament's attempt to maintain control of Islamic Azad University, and he asserted that government policies "menace the Iranian nezam".

Ahmadinejad supporter Mohammad Khoshchehreh tried to counter by saying that many "hardliners" are not legitimate in their views.

1610 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch (Getting to the Important Part). A striking example of how the difference between viewing Iran "internationally" and watching its internal tensions.

For Agence France Presse, the importance of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement at today's Expediency Council lies in the sanctions issues. AFP highlights this passage:

The world arrogance (US) is trying to intimidate countries of the region, so they go along with bullying policies against Iran, but will not succeed in this act. It is an overt, bullying action against Iran when the US president officially announces that they are targeting the heart of Iran's nuclear programme.

EA's German Bureau gets past this diversion to find the importance of the statement, noting the summary of the Iranian Labor News Agency. Rafsanjani said officials should stop battles between different "gangs", as there is a danger that "radical groups" will weaken the three powers [executive, legislative, and judiciary], official institutions, and officials.

1555 GMT: Rahnavard Intervenes. Zahra Rahnavard has issued a statement urging Iranian authorities to end the oppression of political prisoners:

Today the prisons should be proud to have become the residence of the noble and pure individuals who only seek freedom, democracy, justice, and affluence of humanity and have no concern but the prosperity of the nation; today the prisons are hosts of scientific elite, students, professors, journalists, winner of scientific Olympiads, and defenders of human rights.

1540 GMT: Supreme Leader Meets Iran's State Media, Warns Against Lies. That's probably an overdramatic label --- Ayatollah Khamenei, meeting the Head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ezzatollah Zarghami, and producers, writers and artists, was not referring to any lies by IRIB.

Instead Khamenei said, "Those who provided Saddam Hussein with weapons and chemical materials to commit crimes against the Iranian nation have established so-called cultural networks today to pursue the same objectives. This fact should not be overlooked by anyone."

1520 GMT: The Universities Crisis. Rah-e-Sabz reports that the Guardian Council, favouring the Ahmadinejad Government, has rejected the Parliament bill asserting its control over Islamic Azad University.

1330 GMT: Ahmadinejad v. Sanctions. Absolutely no rhetorical overkill in today's declaration by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad:

[The West knows] that there is a sleeping lion in Iran which is waking up and if she wakes up all the relationships in the world will change. Their pathetic acts show they know what a great human power is hidden in Iran.

They thought that by having meetings and talking to each other and signing papers they could stop a great nation's progress. Iran is much greater than what they can perceive it in their small minds. We know that if this Iranian civilization awakes then there would be no more room for arrogant, corrupt and bullying powers.

1320 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Detained labour activist Mansour Osanloo appeared in a Karaj court on Wednesday for unknown reasons.

Hamzeh Karami, manager of the reformist Jomhouriat website and a senior official at Islamic Azad University, has reportedly been hospitalised in Evin Prison with heart and respiratory problems. Karami was arrested shortly after the June 2009 election.

1315 GMT: The Kahrizak Cover-Up. Human rights activist and former member of Parliament Ali Akbar Mosavi Khoeni has asked for a "proper" enquiry by the Government into the handling of the post-election abuses at Kahrizak Prison.

Two prison employees were sentenced to death this week and nine others were given jail terms after a closed-door trial, but activists believe senior officials responsible for Kahrizak have escaped investigation and punishment.

1300 GMT: (Digital) Economy Watch. Iran has ranked 69th out of 70 countries for strength of "digital economy" in a study conducted by The Economist Intelligence Unit and IBM's Institute for Business Value.

Iran was 68th in 2009 but avoided a fall to the absolute bottom this year by edging out Azerbaijan.

1110 GMT: Play It Again, Ali. He might be fighting with the President at home, but Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani is maintaining Iran's common tough-talk line on sanctions. He told reporters Friday that threats will not work against Tehran: "If the US wants to act in the same way as before, this approach would prove costly for them."

0840 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert. Edward Yeranian of Voice of America offers a useful summary, "Iranian Officials Scoff at Impact of New US Economic Sanctions".

0820 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Peyke Iran publishes what it claims is a psychologist's report from August about Tehran police chief Ahmad Reza Radan. It includes provocative items such as Radan's alleged promise to detainees in the now-infamous Kahrizak Prisoners that "they should forget Auschwitz and Guantanamo".

Parleman News claims journalist Aazam Veysameh is being held incommunicado in solitary confinement, with no visits from family.

0725 GMT: We open this morning with a special analysis from Mr Verde, "The Escalating Crisis Within".

Meanwhile....

World Cup Funnies

EA has posted a comedy piece (we think it's a comedy piece) by a former speechwriter for George W. Bush who claims, "Soccer is a Socialist Sport", but football humour isn't limited to the US.

Earlier this week, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki did a routine on how the World Cup humiliations of France, England, and the US were due to God's smiting of those who oppressed Iran with sanctions (and qualification for the World Cup). The punchline comes from Parleman News, however: the website notes that God seems to have turned against Tehran by taking down its ally on the nuclear issue, Brazil.

EA is waiting for Mottaki's assessment of what God thinks about Holland, Brazil's conquerors in the quarter-finals.

Conflicting Signals

Unfortunately for the Government, the confusion is not only over God and football. While Tehran's Friday Prayer leader, Ayatollah Emami Kashani, was giving the party line that opposition could not be tolerated, warning lawyers that defence of wrongdoers is forbidden, the Friday Prayer leader in Golestan, Ayatollah Nour-Mofidi, said, "Criticism of government does not mean opposition to nezam [the Iranian system]", and media loyal to that system should be free.

Deputy Speaker of Parliament Alaeddin Boroujerdi tried to hold everything together by denouncing Iran's enemies --- the US is like the Soviet Union before its decline --- and attacking Mir Hossein Mousavi. Not sure that the attack brought home its intended message, however. Boroujerdi said Iran ad 80% popularity in Muslim countries before elections and this dropped to 27 % afterwards --- but is that shift really due to Mousavi rather than, say, some other politician or regime figure?

Honduras: "Legitimacy" One Year After the Coup (Frank)

I always regretted that, because of demands on  our time and resources, we could not cover the 2009 political crisis in Honduras. The issues are far from resolved, as Dana Frank reports for The Nation:

A long, brutal year after the June 28, 2009, military coup that deposed President Manuel "Mel" Zelaya, official Honduras is collapsing under the weight of its own illegitimacy. On the anniversary of the coup, the opposition took over the nation’s highways and bridges in overt resistance to Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo’s new government, while his own appointees are openly defiant of the slightest concession. The Obama administration, meanwhile, remains insistent that Lobo is the only path forward.

The anniversary of the coup started early in Choloma, outside San Pedro Sula, where the maquiladoras loom and enormous trucks rumble through carrying boxes of T-shirts and jeans for export from Puerto Cortes. Protesters from the Frente Nacional de Resistencia Popular (National Front of Popular Resistance, FNRP), the broad national coalition uniting women's groups, trade unions, campesinos, the gay movement, indigenous people's organizations and human rights groups, shut down the highway at 8 AM. The whole operation was surprisingly low-tech: 200 people in red shirts loosely arrayed along a four-block stretch of the highway, waving banners, chanting and erecting makeshift barriers out of burning branches and a few tires. By 9 over 150 police had arrived, many in riot gear, huddling closely like cattle in the shadow of two trees in the median strip. More ominously, a truck carrying a giant tank of water laced with chemicals and pepper spray pulled up in front of the blockade; a commander informed the protesters that they’d be forced from the road in forty-five minutes. A half an hour later, though, most of the police suddenly trotted back to their truck and followed the tank truck back to San Pedro Sula.

In a complicated dance of countervailing powers within Honduras and beyond, Lobo is desperately seeking legitimacy, and thus forced to both simultaneously show force and restrain it. He vowed in his first days in office not to tolerate any road blockages or occupations. But the anniversary protests were too widespread, international attention too vigilant, to give Lobo much space to maneuver. "There are too many road takeovers all over the country today and not enough police for them to repress us all," a wholesome-looking young man in a FNRP baseball cap explained. Indeed, that same morning over 200,000 marchers occupied the main boulevards of Tegucigalpa, the nation's capital, as well. In El Progreso and Santa Rita, Choluteca and Santa Barbara, La Ceiba and Tocoa, protesters successfully blocked all the country's main arteries.

Tutored closely by Washington, Lobo is trying desperately to present his administration as a "government of national reconciliation." A so-called Truth Commission, unveiled in February with much fanfare, is supposedly investigating the transgressions of the coup but lacks enforcement power, covers only abuses before Lobo's time, and has been largely discredited by the resistance—which has launched its own, alternative truth commission.

Read rest of article....

Israel-Turkey Analysis: Netanyahu Saves Face with Foreign Minister by Snubbing Ankara and Washington (Yenidunya)

The most prominent fallout over the clandestine talks between Israeli Minister of Industry Benjamin Ben-Eliezer and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in Switzerland? It was probably between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Foreign Minister, Avigdor Lieberman.

Lieberman was furious not only that he had not been informed of the mission but that Netanyahu would even consider sending a senior cabinet minister to hold covert talks with Turks. His argument was that if Israel agreed to compensate the families of those killed in the Israel Navy's raid on a Gaza-bound flotilla, the country would suffer a serious blow to its standing in the region.

Turkey-Israel Mystery: A Secret Meeting with Ankara (Followed by an Israeli Apology?)

Lieberman's problem not only Israel's "national interests". Pressure has been increasing day-by-day on his shoulders since the majority of the international community, including Washington, is unhappy with the Foreign Minister's position.

And it is not external powers who are displeased. Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak see their supposed colleague as a hindrance to manoeuvres with Palestinians and confrontation of the Hamas issue, adding to Israel's isolation from the international community.

Of course, Lieberman knows what is on Netanyahu's mind. "The foreign minister takes a very serious view of the fact that this occurred without informing the Ministry of Foreign Affairs," Lieberman's office said in a statement immediately following the revelation of the Ben Eliezer-Davutoglu talks. "This is an insult to the norms of accepted behavior and a heavy blow to the confidence between the foreign minister and the prime minister."

Haaretz reports, from a source close to Lieberman who has spoken with him in recent days, that the Foreign Minister has been disturbed by Netanyahu's behavior for quite some time. According to the source, Lieberman is angry over what he sees as the Premier's legitimization of the global boycott. Indeed, in an interview with Israel Radio on Thursday morning, Lieberman criticized the premier for coordinating the Turkish-Israeli meeting with both Defense Minister Barak and the White House.

When the meeting came to light, Netanyahu had to step back. He apologised to Lieberman, and they met on Friday. Offices of the two men said that they had agreed to work with complete coordination in the future.

Yet this supposed reconcilation still sat alongside the report from Turkish media that Ben-Eliezer had indicated to Davutoglu that Israel was rethinking its refusal to compensate and apologize to the families of those killed in the 31 May 31 on the Freedom Flotilla.

That report had to be pulled back. Ben-Eliezer's bureau said, "We have no plans to do that, and the minister did not promise anything to that regard during his meeting with the Turkish Foreign Minister two days ago." Netanyahu spoke even more sharply, telling Israeli television that the covert meeting was a Turkish "provocation" and insisting that there would be no apology or compensation for the Flotilla confrontation.

But if Netanyahu had repaired relations with Lieberman, he may have done so at the cost of his relations with the US. Haaretz reports, from Israeli sources, that Washington was the organizer. The US had already warned both allies not to compete in the region and sent the signal that former Congressman Robert Wexler, one of the founders of the Turkish-American Friendship Group in the Congress, could be the new ambassador to Israel.

After the Ben-Eliezer meeting with Davutoglu, Washington emphasised the necessity of discussion between its two allies. State Department spokesman Philip Crowley said:

We certainly support this kind of dialogue that hopefully can help repair the fractures that have existed in recent weeks and months between the two countries.

We have had conversations with both countries individually. In those conversations, we have reinforced that a relationship between Turkey and Israel is not only in the best interest of the region, it is in the interest of -- and supports our interests in the region as well.

So, having effectively withdrawn his secret initative, having snubbed Turkey and possibly the US to save face with Lieberman, what next for Netanyahu?

World Cup Comedy: SoccerBall is a Socialist Sport (Thiessen)

Marc Thiessen --- one of the speechwriters in the George W. Bush Administration, who parlayed his loud defence of "enhanced interrogation" into a book and the position of Washington Post columnist --- tries his hand at a stand-up comedy routine on "soccer". (Actually, he sampled this from an even funnier piece posted on the right-wing American Thinker, but hey, the best comedians draw from each other.)

I mean, he is joking, right?

World Cup Special: It’s Mourning in England (Matlin)

....The world is crazy for soccer, but most Americans don’t give a hoot about the sport. Why? Many years ago, my former White House colleague Bill McGurn pointed out to me the real reason soccer hasn’t caught on in the good old U.S.A. It’s simple, really: Soccer is a socialist sport.

Think about it. Soccer is the only sport in the world where you cannot use the one tool that distinguishes man from beast: opposable thumbs. “No hands” is a rule only a European statist could love. (In fact, with the web of high taxes and regulations that tie the hands of European entrepreneurs, “no hands” kind of describes their economic theories as well.)

Soccer is also the only sport in the world that has “hooligans”—proletarian mobs that trash private property whenever their team loses.

Soccer is collectivist. At this year’s World Cup, the French national team actually went on strike in the middle of the tournament on the eve of an elimination match. (Yes, capitalist sports have experienced labor disputes, but can you imagine a Major League Baseball team going on strike in the middle of the World Series?)

At the youth level, soccer teams don’t even keep score and everyone gets a participation trophy. Can you say, “From each according to his ability…”? (The fact that they do keep score later on is the only thing that prevents soccer from being a Communist sport.)

Capitalist sports are exciting—people often hit each other, sometimes even score. Soccer fans are excited by an egalitarian 0-0 tie. When soccer powerhouses Brazil and Portugal met recently at the World Cup, they played for 90 minutes—and combined got just eight shots on net (and zero goals). Contrast this with the most exciting sports moment last week, which came not at the World Cup, but at Wimbledon, when American John Isner won in a fifth-set victory that went 70-68. Yes, even tennis is more exciting than soccer. Like an overcast day in East Berlin, soccer is … boring.

And finally, have you seen the World Cup trophy? It looks like an Emmy Award (and everyone knows that Hollywood is socialist).

There are many more reasons soccer and socialism go hand in hand. You can read some of them here. Perhaps in the age of President Obama, soccer will finally catch on in America. But I suspect that socializing Americans’ taste in sports may be a tougher task than socializing our healthcare system.