The Latest from Iran (12 June): 22 Khordaad

2130 GMT: International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran reports that a heavy security presence in Mashaad prevented significant protest, with 10 people arrested.

2100 GMT: MediaWatch. The darkly humourous mis-reporting of the Associated Press (see 1840 GMT) of a "quiet day" in Iran --- an EA correspondent asked, "Did the reporter actually leave his room today?" --- is becoming a serious case of false "news". Both MSNBC and the Jerusalem Post are recycling the despatch as the definitive account of events.

To make matters worse, the BBC seems to have taken a pass on looking for news today, settling for a bland "we're not sure but this is what others say": "Iranian security forces have reportedly clashed with groups of people trying to mark the anniversary of the disputed presidential election in Tehran. Opposition groups say confrontations began in the evening as people left work and gathered in different areas."

That would not be so bad if the BBC had not left unaltered the wayward conclusion made by their correspondent at the start of the day: "The opposition seem to have run out of ideas and many Iranians are now reduced to sullen acquiescence."

*A sharp contrast is offered by Thomas Erdbrink of The Washington Post. Having written an exaggerated account of the Green Movement's demise on 11 February, Erdbrink puts forth measured optimism for the opposition today:

"There were so many plainclothes officers, that we didn't know who was with us or who against us," a protester said. "But people were not afraid at all, which must be worrying for the government."

Even though the demonstrations were far smaller and the atmosphere generally calmer than in the post-election protests last year, the fact that people decided to go out was remarkable, analysts said.

NEW Iran Analysis: 22 Khordaad — What Happened and What It Means (Shahryar)
NEW Latest Iran Video: Protests of 22 Khordaad (12 June)
NEW Iran: Not Forgetting 22 Khordaad “The Day We Chose to Live” (Pedestrian)
Latest Iran Video: The Mousavi-Karroubi Press Conference
Iran Analysis: The Green Movement and The Lesson of 51 Pegasi B (Shahryar)
Iran Reaction: Mysteries Beyond the Mousavi-Karroubi Statement
Iran Feature: Why the Green Movement is Important (Dissected News)
The Latest from Iran (11 June): Waiting, Watching, and Wondering

1940 GMT: As we near the end of the day, we've posted an analysis by Josh Shahryar, "22 Khordaad: What Happened and What It Means".

And don't forget to check out our set of videos from the day.

1840 GMT: Oh, Dear. Ali Akbar Dareini of the Associated Press --- posting only one hour ago --- summarises the day: "The one-year anniversary of Iran's disputed election passed quietly Saturday with little more than a subdued Internet appeal by opposition leaders for supporters to speak out on the Web against government repression."

To which I am afraid I will have to defer to a Twitter observer: "What were you smoking?"

1830 GMT: A RAHANA reporter claims that special forces threw rock and stones at fleeing people in Enghelab Square.

1750 GMT: An Iranian activist reports, "People move alongside cars showing V [for Victory] signs."

1645 GMT: Comment of Day? A protester reports on Balatarin, "I came back safe. Today I truly realized that we are countless. Today was great. It was better than we expected. (Let us revive our slogan of 'We Are Countless!)'"

1615 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Abdolreza Tajik, journalist, human rights activist, and member of the National-Religious Front, was arrested today for the third time in the past year.

1550 GMT: The Dangers of Premature Conclusion. Lindsey Hilsum of Britain's Channel 4, an excellent reporter, moves far too quickly to her keyboard this afternoon, posting 30 minutes ago: "The streets of Tehran are almost deserted today, it seems, apart from clusters of riot police and basij militia on motorbikes."

1538 GMT: We're counting at least 21 arrests so far: 12 in Enghelab Avenue, 6 near Tehran University, and 3 in Vali-e Asr Square.

Green Voice of Freedom claims about 1000 students protested at Tehran University.

1535 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Davoud Roshani, a member of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been arrested.

1520 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN is reporting from a source that tear gas was used to disperse crowds at Vali-e Asr Square.

A crowd chanted "Ya Hosein Mir Hosein" at Enghelab and Palestine Avenues before being chased away by security forces.

1510 GMT: The Green website Rah-e-Sabz has finally posted a report on the "security atmosphere" in several Iranian cities today.

1430 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Reports that student Kamran Asa, brother of the slain protester Kianoush Asa,  and Hamidreza and Ashkan Moseybian have been freed on bail.

1410 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN, from a source, "Police block off westbound Revolution [Enghelab] Ave towards Azadi Square."

1405 GMT: Radio Farda has now posted a summary of the clashes and gathering crowds in central Tehran.

1355 GMT: Human Rights Activists News Agency are reporting at least 10 people detained, with security forces using tear gas and baton, in Tehran clashes.

1345 GMT: Several witnesses have told Radio Farda about scattered clashes between people and security forces around Enghelab Square.

1335 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN reports three arrested, "blindfolded and taken away on motorcycles", in clashes at Vali-e Asr Square in Tehran. Growing crowds on sidewalks are being chased away.

1325 GMT: We've posted video of a protest at Sharif University in Tehran.

1320 GMT: There are indications that, in addition to Shiraz (see 1220 GMT), there will be protests in Tabriz & Mashaad at 5:30 p.m. local time (1400 GMT).

1315 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN: " 1000s of riot police in all major squares and intersections Tajrish, 7 Tir, Revolution [Enghelab] Avenue." Mehdi Sharakiz adds, "Enghelab is full of both people and guards. All book stores are closed." He adds that all streets to Enghelab are blocked.

Sayah adds, "Many Basij and security forces waiting in local schools and mosques."

1300 GMT: Clamping Down. Earlier today we noted that former Vice President Massoumeh Ebtekar had blogged about the disruption at the 4 June ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini, ""This is another sign...that indicates a serious rift and distancing with the original line and thought of Imam Khomeini, now led by a minority that wills to cling to power by any means possible." (see 0545 GMT)

The sequel is that, according to Parleman News, Ebtekar's blog has now been filtered by Iranian authorities.

1245 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN: "Riot police out in force. 100s lining Azadi Avenue from Azadi Square to Revolution [Enghelab] Square."

1240 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN reports from sources: "Packs of riot police roaming Azadi Ave. Basij waiting in mosque at Kaj Square".

An Iranian activist claims, "Plainclothes on their motorbikes are wandering and shouting 'Death to the traitors; to scare people."

1225 GMT: There is a lot of chatter about build-up of people around Tehran University (which would correspond with end of today's examinations) as well as attempts to gather at Vanak Square and chatting at Enghelab Square. There are also unconfirmed reports of students surrounded by security forces at Sharif University. We are monitoring before treating as confirmed.

1220 GMT: EA has absolutely reliable information from Iran that the protest in Shiraz is scheduled to begin at 5:30 p.m. lcoal time (1400 GMT).

1200 GMT: A hat-tip to Abigail Fielding-Smith of The Independent of London: she posts testimony from "a selection of grass-roots activists", some in Iran, some who have fled, and summarises:

"Although some show signs of despair, they are determined to find new ways of keeping up their opposition. It is difficult to say how representative their voices are. With heavy reporting restrictions inside Iran, and many people afraid to communicate with foreign journalists, it is hard to gauge public opinion accurately.

Many who took part in the protests have lost interest in demonstrating, either because they fear the repercussions or because they lack faith in the movement's ability to change anything. The forces ranged against it are formidable: the might of the security establishment; the continuing, albeit weakened, power of conservative ideology in Iran; and the populist economic policies of Mr Ahmadinejad. Nonetheless, political change is often, as the activists interviewed here are starting to realise, a long game."

1145 GMT:  Conflicting reports over whether there is a visible security build-up in Tehran. Josh Shahryar posts video.

1140 GMT: We've posted a short but incisive comment by Pedestrian, "22 Khordaad: The Day We Chose to Live".

1050 GMT: Academic Corner. Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that 14 students at Kerman University have been detained. A total of 35 students were called to the university's disciplinary committee.

1040 GMT: Not a Diversion at All. The head of Iran's atomic energy programme, Ali Akbar Salehi, is quoted by Resalat: "In the next few months Iran will announce a new nuclear achievement in connection to the production of fuel for its Tehran research reactor."

1010 GMT: The First Demonstration? Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that retired workers of Pars Wagon Company in Arak have held a protest.

1005 GMT: Better Late than Never. Ahh, here comes Press TV's "objective" coverage of the anniversary:

"Iran's Press TV channel is to broadcast a documentary on the country's latest presidential election that was held on June 12 last year.

The Real Fake by renowned Iranian director Nader Talebzadeh that will be aired by the English language channel on Sunday provides realistic insight into developments in Iran before the election and the incidents after that.

The documentary seeks to resolve ambiguities that foreign audience may have about the presidential election. It includes footage that has never been broadcast on any TV channel, including some about the post-election violence and suspicious murders [hmm....Neda?; definitely not those killed in Kharizak Prison] committed in the days after the election."

The documentary also investigates the role of western media in the post-election developments in the country.

It provides facts indicating that the West has been preparing for a war with Iran after the election, which is introduced as an issue much more important than the issues surrounding the Islamic republic's 10th presidential election itself.

1000 GMT: Latest from the Streets. Cellphone and text service is reported normal. Some sources say Internet access has slowed; others say it is normal.

0840 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Iran's main teachers' union has called for the release of all political detainees.

0800 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN, from Tehran sources, at 12 p.m. local time (0830 GMT): "Still no sign of police or security forces at major intersection and squares."

0733 GMT: We've posted a separate feature, "Daily Life in Tehran, One Year On".

0730 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN reports from a Tehran source, "No sign of security forces or Basij in major intersections and squares." Iran Press News reports traffic in Tehran is normal.

0712 GMT: Meanwhile in Kyrgyzstan. The dramatic events this spring in Kyrgyzstan, where President Kurmanbek Bakiyev was forced to step down, are far from over. Violence around the southern city of Osh, a power base for Bakiyev, has killed almost 50 people in recent days, and thousands, many of them ethnic Uzbeks, have fled their homes.

0710 GMT: Marking 22 Khordaad. Reports that Iranian state TV now showing pictures of the President to mark his "victory" last year.

0700 GMT: Economy Watch. Aftab News launches another attack on the Government, writing that "Iran's economy has no steering wheel", with three months passing and no implementation of the 5th Plan.

0650 GMT: The Battle Within. Khabar Online reports that, following Tehran Friday Prayers, there were chants denouncing high-profile member of Parliament Ali Motahari, who has been sharply critical of President Ahmadinejad.

At the same time, the fallout over the 4 June shout-down of another "establishment" figure, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, continues. Ayatollah Jalaleddin Taheri Esfahani has condemned the incident in a letter to Khomeini.

Hassan Rohani, an ally of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, has warned that, if the insults become usual, they might take down everyone, "even the planners".

0635 GMT: Protests = Foreign-Supported Terror. Press TV's website has 0 words about the anniversary of the election, preferring to headline yet another President Ahmadinejad announcement that Iran will enrich its uranium to 20 per cent (and thus does not need outside assistance to keep its Tehran Research Reactor operational).

However, Press TV' s current international programme is a not-so-subtle documentary that the "terrorist" "monarchist" group Tondar [Kingdom Assembly of Iran] is supported by the US Government. One of the allegations is that Tondar is linked to Radio Farda, the US Government-financed broadcaster.

And inside Iran, Mir Hossein Mousavi has returned to the screen of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting after a year, albeit as a clear and present danger to the Iranian system.

0615 GMT: Why Mousavi Retreated. Kalameh, the website close to Mir Hossein Mousavi, reports that the request for a permit to demonstrate was withdrawn because the Iranian regime was planning 2 blame Greens 4 violence on the day.

0545 GMT (9: 15 a.m. in Tehran): One Year Later, Another Day Forward? It is 22 Khordaad, the anniversary of the disputed 2009 Presidential election.

Anyone who predicts what will occur today is either a bigger fool or a far smarter analyst than I. The official rationale for a march has been withdrawn by the foot-dragging of the Ministry of the Interior (which never, as far as I know, ever denied more than two of 10 requests by reformist groups for permits, but merely stalled and stalled) and the announcement of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. Not just the heavy security presence today, but months of suppression and intimidation have disrupted the opposition and put fear into anyone who might dare show dissent openly.

Still some activists --- inside and outside Iran --- are talking of an appearance of protest, despite the risks. Whether that manifests itself and on what scale is beyond my most speculative guess at this point.

Meanwhile....

The Battle Over Neda

Iran's state TV channel IRIB 3 reportedly tried to get in a pre-emptive strike against protest last night with a documentary on Neda Agha Soltan, the 26-year-old philosophy student killed last 20 June by a Basiji gunshot while observing a mass demonstration. No prizes for guessing that the programme would attribute Neda's death to a foreign scheme to discredit the Iranian regime.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rKJf7dVnMo[/youtube]

However, IRIB's effort was pre-empted in turn --- at least on the Internet --- by a new 33-second clip of her last moments. (Warning: Graphic)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jk3sAI2nKRI[/youtube]

Political Prisoner Watch

RAHANA, complementing Internet chatter, writes that Iranian official in the Prosecutor General’s Office have warned student activist Majid Tavakoli, detained since 7 December, that "they have the power to do anything to him". The threats allegedly followed the publication of two letters sent by Tavakoli from Evin Prison, “For Change” and “We Will Build the Future.”

4 June Fall-Out

Massoumeh Ebtekar, Vice President in the Khatami Government, has written on her blog about last week's disruption at the ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini, when his grandson Seyed Hassan Khomeini was shouted down by hecklers and had to cut short his speech: "This is another sign, in the long string of events in recent years, that indicates a serious rift and distancing with the original line and thought of Imam Khomeini, now led by a minority that wills to cling to power by any means possible."

The Latest from Iran (9 June): Paying Attention

2030 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that the head of Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign in Babolsar has been arrested.

2000 GMT: A Friendly Notice. To all journalists riding the two-dimensional bandwagon on Twitter & Iran, treating cliches like "Twitter Revolution" as if they were the core of meaningful analysis, I'm not going to respond for the moment --- this is a made-up dramatic revelation, which recurs every few months and does not get to the heart of what social media has meant in the post-election crisis. Best to let it serve as tomorrow's chip paper.

But if you keep it up, I may change my mind....

1900 GMT: Mahmoud Snaps Back. President Ahmadinejad, who has had post-election encounters with dust (read his "victory speech") and insects (see video), worked both into his response to the UN sanctions resolution: "These (U.N.) resolutions have no value...They are like a used handkerchief that should be thrown in the dust bin. Sanctions are falling on us from the left and the right. For us they are the same as pesky flies....We have patience and we will endure throughout all of this."

NEW Latest Iran Video: Obama Statement on Sanctions...and Rights (9 June)
NEW Iran Analysis: What’s Most Important Today? (Hint: Not Sanctions)
NEW Iran Analysis: 4 June “The Day the Regime Will Regret” (Verde)
Iran Election Anniversary Special: The Power of the “Gradual”
Iran Special Report:The Attack on Civil Society (Arseh Sevom)
The Latest from Iran (8 June): Tremors and Falsehoods

1855 GMT: Back to 22 Khordaad. BBC Persian reports on the increased security presence on the streets of Tehran on the eve of 12 June,the anniversary of the election.


1725 GMT: President Obama has just made a statement about Iran in the aftermath of the UN vote on sanctions. We've posted the video.

Here's the quick read: Obama proclaimed that the sanctions were the "most comprehensive" Iran has faced, said that the UN resolution sent an "unmistakeable message", and spent most of the rest of the time justifying the position on sanctions in connection with his policy of "engagement": "We recognize Iran's rights, but with those rights come responsibilities. Time and again the Iranian Government has failed to meet those responsibilities."

Then, in one of the eight minutes of the statement, having declared,"These sanctions are not directed at the Iranian people," Obama switched from nukes to rights. He noted this Saturday's anniversary of the election, "an event that should have been remembered for how the Iranian people participated with remarkable enthusiasm but will instead be remembered for how the Iranian Government brutally suppressed dissent and murdered the innocent, including a young woman [Neda Agha Soltan] left to die in the street".

It was a bit awkward for the President to link back to uranium and sanctions, and he did not help by throwing in the spectre of Tehran's War of Terror --- "Actions do have consequences. And today the Iranian Government will face some of those consequences. Because whether it is threatening the Nuclear Non-Proliferation regime or the rights of its own citizens or the stability of its own neighbors by supporting terrorism, the Iranian Government continues to demonstrate that its unjust actions are a threat to justice everywhere".

However, at least for one moment, "Iran" was seen in more than the one-dimensional image of a nuclear weapon.

1720 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani's office has released a letter which, in the eyes of Deutsche Welle, criticises the Supreme Leader's silence over President Ahmadinejad and implicitly acknowledges fraud in the 2009 election.

1620 GMT: Sanctions. The UN Security Council has voted 12-2, with 1 abstention, for new sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme.

The relatively limited measures include restrictions on transactions with Iranian banks, asset freezes on Iranian individuals and companies, and an expanded arms embargo on items such as attack helicopters and missiles.

Turkey and Brazil, who recently signed an agreement with Iran on procedure for talks over uranium enrichment, were the two countries who voted against the resolution. Lebanon abstained.

1605 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Al Arabiya has just published an interview from May with Mehdi Karroubi. Topics covered include the rise of the Green Movement, party politics, accusations of prison abuse and torture, Government mismanagement, and Ahmadinejad's foreign policy. Karroubi also offered this in anticipation of 22 Khordaad (12 June), the anniversary of the election:

We promise and give assurances that no incident will occur. I am certain that if a march is held, paramilitary forces will attempt to turn it violent, but our people are wise, and politically mature enough that even if certain individuals come chanting radical slogans, the people have the ability to control the scenario and confront them. However, if authorisation is not granted for demonstrations, we will then decide what to do; but it is currently not possible to say much.

1545 GMT: On the International Front (Mahmoud Stays Home). On Monday, Iranian state media were trumpeting that their internationally-esteemed President would be showing his strength, in the face of Western pressure, by going to the Shanghai Expo in China.

Today, Agence France Presse says that Ahmadinejad plans to stay away from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting to snub Russia and China for supporting the US-backed sanctions resolution in the United Nations.

1120 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Amnesty International has launched a new campaign, "One Year On: Stop Unfair Trials". Cases include journalists Abolfazl Abedini Nasr, Hengameh Shahidi, Emaduddin Baghi, Shiva Nazar Ahari and Ahmad Zeidabadi, student activists Majid Tavakoli and Mohammad Amin Valian, and Zia Nabavi of the Council to Defend the Right to Education.

1015 GMT: The Nuclear Discussions. A piece of news that slipped under the media radar....

The International Atomic Energy Agency has announced that it has received replies from France, Russia, and the US to the Iran-Brazil-Turkey declaration on procedure for uranium enrichment talks.

No details were given beyond the note, "Attached to each of the letters was an identical paper entitled ‘Concerns about the Joint Declaration Conveyed by Iran to the IAEA’."

That, however, indicates co-ordination between the three governments. And the timing of the IAEA's statement, together with the lack of substance, indicates that it is happy to let the news be overtaken by today's sanctions vote in the UN.

0955 GMT: Reflecting on The Year. Journalist Masih Alinejad has offered her recollections and analysis in an extended video interview with Voice of America Persian.

0935 GMT: A Signal for the Week? Hamshahri features the colourful cover identifying the bad guys in "Sedition '88".

0930 GMT: Intimidation of Kurdistan Businesses? Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that, following a general strike on 9 May to protest executions, members of bazaars across Kurdistan have been summoned and threatened by government authorities and the businesses of others have been sealed.

0800 GMT: What is the Green Movement? An interesting interview with Fatemeh Sadeghi, a former professor at Tehran University, who argues that the Green Movement is not the opposition of the "secular" against the "religious".

0750 GMT: The Post-Election Abuses. Abdul Ruholamini has resurfaced to declare that those responsible for the abuse and killing of detainees in Kahrizak Prison must "pay for their deeds".

Ruholamini, the campaign manager for Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, is the father of Mohsen Ruholamini, who died in Kahrizak last summer. The case was instrumental in bringing the abuses to light and pressing the Supreme Leader to close Kahrizak. Ruholamini had gone farther in public statements at the start of 2010, declaring that high-ranking officials must take responsibility for the crimes, but had been silent in recent months.

Ruholamini may have been prompted to his statement by the news that the trial of 12 people over the Kahrizak case has finished behind closed doors.

0745 GMT: The Events of 4 June. Another perspective, complementing that of EA's Mr Verde, on last Friday's developments at the ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini comes from Hamid Farokhnia in Tehran Bureau.

Tehran Bureau also features a review by Muhammad Sahimi, "The Green Movement at One Year".

0740 GMT: Parliament v. President (and Supreme Leader). It seems that Ayatollah Khamenei's intervention --- calling for Parliament-Ahmadinejad co-operation and threatening the Majlis with new "oversight" --- may not have been an overwhelming success.

Key MP Ahmad Tavakoli, an ally of Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, has commented in Khabar Online that the Constitution is written for people to cooperate, not to fight. So far, so good for the Supreme Leader.

But then Tavakoli re-asserts, "The Government has no right not to implement the laws from the Majlis."

0715 GMT: On a day when "Iran news", for most non-Iranian media, may be dominated by the passage of the US-led sanctions resolution in the UN Security Council, we set out priorities with two analyses: Scott Lucas declares, "What's Important Today? (Hint: Not Sanctions), and Mr Verde looks at "4 June: A Day the Regime Will Regret".

One US outlet shares our attention to the internal: Newsweek notes last Friday's events, with the shout-down of Seyed Hassan Khomeini, under the (over-blown) headline, "Iran's Hushed-Up Civil War":

For his part, Supreme Leader Khamenei did little damage control, even though he has worked hard to present a united front for Iran’s leadership, knowing that discord suggests vulnerability. He took the stage after Khomeini and asked the crowd to act in a more appropriate manner. But that was it. No defense of Khomeini and no rebuke to the crowd. With the anniversary of the contested election just days away now, Khamenei has been trying to manage a delicate balancing act between quieting and frightening the opposition—and sending mixed messages in the process.

In another warm-up for 12 June, the anniversary of the election, Zahra Rahnavard gives an interview to the Italian paper La Republicca. Beyond general criticism of the Government and the declaration, "I hope to shed the last drop of my blood in the cause of freedom and democracy," she focuses on key issues:

The demands of the women in Iran are twofold: 1) National demands such as freedom, democracy, the rule of the law, freedom of political prisoners, right to individual freedoms; 2) Elimination of discrimination and strengthening of cultural rights, women's rights and equal rights under the law.

....Democracy is not possible without women and without paying attention to the demands of women.

Iran Analysis: 4 June "The Day the Regime Will Regret" (Verde)

Mr Verde writes for EA:

When the history of this post-election conflict is written, the events of Friday, 4 June 2010, may be as significant as last year’s Qods Day and Ashura. They may be even more important.

The regime is trying to pretend that there is no crisis of confidence/legitimacy and that the post-election protests are over. But last Friday, at what was supposed to be the commemoration of Ayatollah Khomeini's death, President Ahmadinejad was still talking about last year’s elections and the Supreme Leader was still threatening former (and possibly even current) regime officials –-- this time with execution. Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the Ayatollah, was shouted down during his speech.

Events like the 4 June commemorations are planned well in advance, tightly controlled, and well-choreographed. We can therefore dismiss with great confidence any suggestion that the hecklers were ordinary people acting in the moment. They were thugs organized by regime officials.

Whatever the true intentions of the organizers,these events have and will continue to damage Ayatollah Khamenei. The reason?

There are two possibilities: either the thugs were organized on the order of Khamenei, or the heckling was carried out without his permission.

If Khamenei was kept out of the loop, then he is losing his grip on the Islamic Republic. When a group of regime thugs can barrack Hassan Khomeini with impunity right in front of the Supreme Leader and the world media, when Khamenei cannot even control his audience for a few minutes during an important ceremony. how can one expect him to have control over the actions of other regime officials? (Which, looking backward, raises the question: how can the Supreme Leader claim so confidently that there was no fraud during the June 2009 elections?)

If the thugs were carrying out Khamenei’s orders, then the Islamic Republic is gripped by such a dangerous crisis that its highest official is forced to sacrifice the reputation of his regime in an attempt to embarrass and humiliate another regime insider. If this is the case, then Khamenei’s warm embrace of Hassan Khomeini after the latter’s abandoned speech also points to the nasty, duplicitous personality of the Supreme Leader.

In either case, the events of 4 June have provided a rallying point for Khamenei’s detractors within the regime –-- whose numbers, by the way, seem to be growing by the week. It not only Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, but alsoother reformists and even principlists like Ali Motahari have used these events as an excuse to criticise Khamenei personally.

If the intention of the regime's show on 4 June was to weaken the opponents of Khamenei and Ahmadinejad, the scheme appears to have backfired.

One may argue that the Supreme Leader is trying to wipe out any reference to Ayatollah Khomeini and replace Khomeini’s legacy with his own. The problem is that, since last June, Khamenei’s reputation as a religious and political leader has been damaged. He has not been able to make repairs and all high-profile regime manoeuvres, including last Friday, have brought more damage.

Let’s not forget that the June ceremonies were cut back from 3 days to 1 day this year; despite all the preparations the numbers attending were far less than what he regime had claimed and hoped for; 15 Khordaad (5 June), the day which marks the beginning of the uprising in the 1960s that eventually led to the 1979 Revolution, was completely forgotten this year.

Ayatollah Khomeini is the main pillar of the Islamic Republic. The regime owes its existence to him, and all of its officials claim his approval for their ideas and actions. doing. His burial site, where the 4 June ceremonies were taking place, is similar to the shrines of Shia Imams. The failure of regime officials to capitalise on this --– and by their actions disrespecting his memory –-- points to serious problems within the Islamic Republic.

In February, I mentioned that, because of the crisis in the Islamic Republic, the regime will be forced into display that will come back and haunt them. Add the events of 4 June to that growing list.

The Latest from Iran (8 June): Tremors and Falsehoods

2000 GMT: The Rooftop Allahu Akbars Are Back. Claimed video of tonight in west Tehran, with residents shouting "God is Great":

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NriBVuN3og&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

NEW Iran Election Anniversary Special: The Power of the “Gradual”
NEW Iran Special Report:The Attack on Civil Society (Arseh Sevom)
Iran Analysis: The Unexpected Fight Over “Khomeini”
Iran Analysis: One Year After the Election (Shafaee)
Iran Feature: Music and Resistance (Fathi)
The Latest from Iran (7 June): Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting

1955 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Masoud Nourmohammadi, detained since 20 January, has been sentenced to three years in prison for "assembly and collusion against national security". His brother, reformist activist Saeed Nourmohammadi, is serving a one-year prison sentence, with five years suspended, and a 30-year ban on political activity.


1935 GMT: 22 Khordaad. Still waiting for video to surface of today's press conference by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. Those present included Advar News, Jaras, Norooz, Saham News, Green Voice of Freedom, Tahavole Sabz, Kalameh, Emrooz, and Mizan.

Meanwhile, Rah-e-Sabz clarifies the latest developments on the requests to march on 12 June. The number of reformist groups seeking permits has risen from 8 to 10.  Two parties have already been rejected, while the rest --- meeting a request from the Ministry of Interior for more information --- have said the protest will "be a silent one, with no one carrying any arms. There will be no statement read out and no speech made." Demonstrators will "carry signs asking for free elections and using green as their symbol".

1920 GMT: Parliament v. President (cont.). The most intriguing move, however, comes from "principlist" MP Ali Motahari. Having been warned for saying that the disturbance at last Friday's ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini was due in part to the President's election, Motahari said that he would welcome his removal from the party. He declared that this would prepare the ground for the establishment of an independent faction composed of moderate reformists and principlists.

1915 GMT: Parliament v. President. A number of intriguing developments in the conflict between the Majlis and the President....

BBC Persian reports that the Supreme Leader has stepped in, calling for more oversight of the work of Parliament but also seeking more collaboration between the Majlis and Ahmadinejad.

A number of MPs have criticised Ahmadinejad's latest power play. Farhad Tajari, deputy chief of the Majlis legal commission, condemned the President’s letter to the Guardian Council questioning the legitimacy of a number of Parliament's bills, and Seyed Reza Akrami maintained that only the Guardian Council can declare Parliamentary measures illegal. Abbas Rejai, the head of Parliament’s agricultural commission, said that as the Guardian Council has approved all legislation in his area, no one can question its validity.

The Parliament also blamed the office of the President for releasing Ahmadinejad's letter, which bore a confidential stamp, with “all its blatant legal equivocations”.

1910 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Kouhyar Goudarzi, member of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters, has been sentenced to one year in prison.

1740 GMT: Ahmadinejad "All OK. Nothing to See. Move Along." Amidst his rhetoric about the nuclear issue and Israel, President Ahmadinejad did take time today in Turkey to make a passing comment on his own country.

So let it be noted --- because all media hell is going to break loose tomorrow when the UN Security Council adopts a sanctions resolution and the Iranian Government responds, three days ahead of the election anniversary, with defiance and its honourable defence of the country's sovereignty against foreigners --- that Ahmadinejad said:

The Islamic Republic is one of the most stable countries of the world because its foundations are set in the hearts of every single Iranian....People hold the elections, supervise it and participate in it.

1625 GMT: The Complexities Within. Dissected News offers an interesting overview of the tensions not only within the Green Movement but also within the Iranian establishment.

1610 GMT: Jailing the Journalists. Reporters Without Borders posts a lengthy summary of the represssion of journalists in Iran. Some basic statistics:

* At least 170 journalists and bloggers, including 32 women, have been arrested in the past year.

*22 of them have sentenced to jail terms totalling 135 years.

*85 journalists are awaiting trial or sentencing.

* More than 100 journalists have been forced to flee the country.

*23 newspapers have been shut down and thousands of web pages have been blocked.

*With 37 journalists and bloggers currently held, Iran is one of the world’s four biggest prisons for the media, alongside Cuba, Eritrea and North Korea.

1605 GMT: In the Category of Totally Unexpected News. Kalemeh, the website of Mir Hossein Mousavi, is complaining that the Ministry of Interior is stalling over requests for permits to demonstrate on 12 June, the anniversary of the election.

The Ministry has turned down two applications from reformist parties but has asked six other groups for more information.

1345 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Student activist Behzad Bagheri was arrested on Saturday in Isfahan.

1315 GMT: From the Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi:

Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi held a joint press conference today on the eve of one year anniversary of rigged presidential election (June 12) and answered to the questions of reporters from all over the world. Details of this press conference as well as the video of it will be published soon.

1300 GMT: I have posted an analysis, for the anniversary of Iran's election, assessing the significance of events that have happened and events to come: "The Power of the Gradual".

The decision to post the piece, which is a draft introduction to a new book, was spurred in part because of my frustration and sorrow at a set of high-profile analyses in Foreign Policy magazine which I think misrepresent the dynamic of post-election developments, especially with respect to information in and out of Iran.

In that context, I have just noted two other, very different reflections. Human rights activist Ahmad Batebi gives a lengthy interview in which he assesses, "People's Movement Will Stay Alive with Knowledge & Information". And Kathy Riordan interviews an activist, "Michi", on the influence of social media in this post-election crisis: "People in many countries outside Iran have established bonds with the Iranian people. Stereotypes and misunderstandings have been stripped away."

1215 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Reports have come in that journalist Zhila Bani Yaghoub has been sentenced to one year in prison and has banned for 30 years from reporting. Her husband, journalist Bahman Amoui, is already serving a five-year sentence in Evin Prison.

1010 GMT: American Detainees. Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast has said Tehran has no plans to swap three Americans jailed last summer in Iran on spying charges for Iranians held in the Unites States.

The website Free the Hikers offers the latest on the detainees, arrested after walking --- inadvertently, they claim --- across the Iraq-Iran border.

0940 GMT: Evading the Attacks. Writing in The New York Times, Jo Becker illustrates how the state-owned Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines evades sanctions through the re-flagging and renaming of ships:

Of the 123 Irisl ships listed [by the US Government], only 46 are still clearly owned by Irisl or its United States-listed subsidiaries, according to an analysis of data from IHS Fairplay, formerly Lloyd’s Register-Fairplay, based in Britain, which issues large merchant vessels their unique identifying numbers and tracks them over their lifetime. Four more were scuttled.

The rest — 73 — are now on record as owned and operated by companies that do not appear on the blacklist. The companies are located far from Iran, in places like Malta, Hong Kong, Cyprus, Germany and the Isle of Man. In all but 10 instances, however, records and interviews established definitive links between the ships’ new registered owners and Irisl.

0725 GMT: 22 Khordaad. The website 12june.org is now listing 68 cities planning events on 12 June for the anniversary of the Presidential election.

0654 GMT: Video of Day. Short and to the point --- "22 Khordaad" (12 June) is inscribed on a railing:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YIugT-rfCIA[/youtube]

0650 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? President Ahmadinejad is in Turkey, putting the emphasis on foreign affairs. He has told a crowd in Istanbul that last week's raid on the Freedom Flotilla was the "death knell" for the "Zionist regime". He also said the recent Iran-Brazil-Turkey declaration on Tehran's uranium enrichment is the last chance for an agreement on the issue.

0645 GMT: Women's Rights Corner. Ayatollah Abdolnabi Namazi, the leader of Friday Prayers in Kashan has explained that televising women pariticipating in sports is forbidden.

0635 GMT: The Khomeini Fall-Out. Ayatollah Dastgheib, condemning the attack on Hassan Khomeini, asserts that the "only way out" out of the current predicament is the return of Mir Hossein Mousavi to the political scene with the assurance that he will not be threatened.

0555 GMT: We begin the morning with a special report from a new NGO, Arseh Sevom (Third Sphere), "Attacks on Civil Society in Iran, 2005-2010".

Meanwhile, in the current civil society, there are more signs of nervousness as the regime is still trying to deal with the aftermath of the ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini, that went wrong last Friday and the uncertainty of the election's anniversary (22 Khordaad/12 June) approaches:

A New Anti-Government Coalition?

A sharp poke at Ahmadinejad, in the guise of analysis from Khabar Online, the website connected with Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani: it claims that even a significant number of "hardliners" have joined the reformists in opposition

The analysis projects that "moderate reformists" have a small chance to gain influence within two or three years and advises that hardliners should put themselves in four groups to discuss change, including "idealists", "pragmatists", and those taking the Government line.

Parliament v. President

The head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has declared that the Parliament should help the judiciary to correct and update laws.

Hmm.... Could Sadegh be taking sides in the evolving dispute between his brother Ali and President Ahmadinejad? After all, it is Ali Larijani and other MPs who are complaining that the Government is implementing "incorrect" measures.

There's the prospect of more pressure on the President, with the claim that the results of an investigation into undocumented spending during Ahmadinejad's Government will be published soon.

"Dorough Online" (Lie Online)

That is new name given to Iran's media by Green Voice of Freedom, which is claiming a "new record" of at least three big lies per day handed down to the Iranian people. Unsurprisingly, Green Voice is offering examples from the ongoing presentation of last Friday's shout-down of Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini.

More Dorough....

The "hard-line" Kayhan, according to the Green site Rah-e-Sabz, is betraying its nervousness with a series of allegations, inventing foreign supporters, mysterious editors, and a headquarters in London for the opposition publication.

Political Prisoner Watch

Fereshteh Ghazi's posts an interview with the father of Amir Javadifar, who died in detention after he was arrested on 9 July. As Iran holds another court session, ostensibly to punish those who carried out abuses at Kahrizak Prison, Javadifar's father says, "We demand those who gave the orders at Kahrizak to be sentenced."

The Latest from Iran (7 June): Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting

2145 GMT: The Khomeini Fall-Out. To end the day as we started it: despite the criticism of the Government over the harassment of Hassan Khomeini last Friday, "hardline" newspapers continue to press the campaign against Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson. Raja News continues to push the story of a "nasty encounter" between Hassan Khomeini and Minister of Interior Mostafa Mohammad Najjar (using the belittling name of "Hassan Mostafavi" for Khomeini), with President Ahmadinejad leading discussions on an appropriate response.

NEW Iran Analysis: The Unexpected Fight Over “Khomeini”
NEW Iran Analysis: One Year After the Election (Shafaee)
NEW Iran Feature: Music and Resistance (Fathi)
Iran Document: Mehdi Karroubi on Khomeini, the Rule of Law, and Protest in 2010 (4 June)
Iran Document: The Supreme Leader’s Speech (4 June)
The Latest from Iran (6 June): The Fallout from Friday

2130 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Badrosadat Mofidi has been released from detention.


2120 GMT: Larijani v. Ahmadinejad (cont.). Back from an academic break to find yet another development in the political contest between the President and Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani. Countering the assertion of Larijani that many Government actions were not in accordance with Parliament's legislation (other MPs have claimed up to 130 Government measures are in dispute), Ahmadinejad has claimed that three Parliamentary bills are in violation of the law: “the plan to make changes to the law of development and support of housing, the plan for admission of students in vocational and technical schools as well as teachers colleges, and finally miscellaneous accessions to budgets approved by the parliament without observing provisions set forth in the Islamic Republic Constitution".

1605 GMT: The Dissent Within (cont. --- see 0955 GMT): Rooz Online follows up on stories of Principlist discontent with President Ahmadinejad.

The website starts from alleged remarks by Ahmadinejad that “political parties should not interfere in government affairs” and his chief aide, Esfandiar Rahim Mashai, that “the principlists have crossed Ahmadinejad”.

Seyed Reza Akrami, a member of the Combatant Clergy Association, responded to Rahim Mashai, “One year has passed since the election, and officials shouldn’t make such statements that only fuel differences....Such statements from the nation’s executive officials have no benefit and only creates problems, divisions and difference among the principlists....Instead of talking about scenarios such as ‘crossing Ahmadinejad’, the officials should be trying to find solutions to problems that are rampant in society.”

Rooz claims the political director of the Iran Hezbollah Society, Hossein Kanani-Moghaddam, asserted, “Many principlists are no longer with Ahmadinejad. On the other hand, people who weren’t with him before are now supporting him for their own benefit.”

1550 GMT: The 22 Khordaad Marches. Rah-e-Sabz reports that the Ministry of the Interior has rejected two applications --- from the Islamic Iran Participation Front and the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution --- for demonstrations on 12 June and have asked for further information from six other reformist groups.

1420 GMT: Mousavi & Karroubi Meet. From Advar News, via the Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi:

Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi met with each other....In this meeting the two Green leaders discussed the incident [which] happened on June 4th in the ceremony commemorating the anniversary of Ayatollah Khomeini’s passing when a group of organized pro-government thugs insulted Seyyed Hassan Khomeini, grandson of late Ayatollah Khomeini, so that he had to end his speech and leave the podium. Also, according to reports in this meeting, the two leaders made some new decisions regarding the protest on June 12th for the anniversary of rigged presidential election. Details of this meeting will be published soon.

1315 GMT: Executions. A 14th hanging today (see 0940 GMT) has taken place in Isfahan.

1310 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Poet, human rights activist & blogger Reza Akvanian has been sentenced to one year in prison with five more years suspended.

1300 GMT: Khomeini Fall-Out. The reformist Assembly of Combatant Clergymen, in a meeting last night chaired by former President Mohammad Khatami, issued a statement strongly condemning "the insults made on Seyyed Hassan Khomeini" at last Friday's ceremony. The clerics asked, "How is it, that when someone makes a slightest comment or does an interview criticizing the government, they will be arrested instantly, but that the authorities do nothing to stop these kinds of attacks...by a group of organized plainclothes individuals?"

1045 GMT: Conversation of the Day. From an article by Ali Chenar, “The Meaning of ‘V’: Reflections on a Moral Triumph”:

TAXI DRIVER: "Agha, do you remember what people did last year here?"
CHENAR: "Yes, yes I do!"
TAXI DRIVER: "I could not believe my eyes."
CHENAR: "True, many couldn't.... Here is my stop. Thank you…."
As Chenar hands a few notes to the driver for the fare, he pauses for a moment and asks:

CHENAR: "Do you think it is over, sir?"
TAXI DRIVER: "Hell no! It is not over. Do not think like that, my lad. It has just begun!"

1030 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. There are reports that teachers’ union activist Mahmoud Beheshti Langeroudi, recently released from detention, has been re-arrested.

1000 GMT: The Executions. More than 200 women’s rights and human rights activists have issued a statement condemning the executions of five Iranians, four of them Kurdish, on 9 May and demanding a halt to further hangings of Kurds on death row.

0955 GMT: The Dissent Within. The Green website Rah-e-Sabz offers more details of the warning handed out by the Principlist party, primarily by MP Hamid Rasaie, to Ali Motahari over Motahari’s condemnation of President Ahmadinejad. Complementing the line offered by some clerics and reformists, Motahari said that Friday’s furour over Seyed Hassan Khomeini emanated from problems with the 2009 election.

And, in an extraordinary remark if true, pro-Ahmadinejad Hojatoleslam Ali Asghari has referred to “white-bearded hardliners” and continued with a message to Mahdavi Kani to Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Mahdavi Kani: “Tell him the time of grandpas is long over.”

0940 GMT: Executions. Reports are coming in that 13 prisoners were hung this morning at Ghezelhesar Prison. Another 13 people are still in “quarantine” awaiting possible execution.

Those put to death were convicted of drug offences.

0935 GMT: Reformist member of Parliament Mohammad Reza Tabesh, referring to the shout-down of Seyed Hassan Khomeini, has suggested that “if [the Government] cannot control this small group, they should at least apologize”. Claiming that the Supreme Leader “is not amused” about the incident, Tabesh suggested that Friday’s “violations are due to electoral quarrels”.

Even the firmly pro-Government Resalat has declared that accusing Hassan Khomeini of being against velayat –e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority) is an “injustice”. MP Mohammad Kousari has warned, “Without [Ayatollah] Khomeini, we lose our identity.”

0930 GMT: Activists claim that Hassan Khomeini has rejected allegations that he attacked Minister of Interior Mostafa Mohammad Najjar. To our knowledge, there has been no corroboration of the story from Javan, the publication connected to the Revolutionary Guards.

0925 GMT: Green websites are circulating the call of students of Ahvaz, Kermanshah, Tabriz, Lahijan, and Mashaad Universities for rallies on 22 Khordaad (12 June), the anniversary of the election.

0720 GMT:  We open this morning with three specials: Nazila Fathi writes about music and resistance, Masoud Shafaee looks at Iran one year after the election, and Scott Lucas assesses "the fight over Khomeini".