NEW Iran: Mehdi Karroubi’s Son on 13 Aban IncidentsNEW Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November --- 3rd Set)NEW Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November --- 2nd Set)NEW Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November --- 1st Set)Text: President Obama’s Statement on Iran (4 November)NEW Iran: Josh Shahryar on Fictions & Realities of “Revolution”Latest Iran Video: Rooftop “Allahu Akhbar” Chants (3 November)Latest Iran Video: Protests at Iranian Universities and a High School (3 November)Iran: A Response to “What If the Green Movement Isn’t Ours?” (The Sequel)Iran: A Response to an American Who Asks, “What if the Green Movement Isn’t ‘Ours’?Iran: More 13 Aban Videos The Latest from Iran (3 November): 24 Hours to GoReceive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEEDBuy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
2100 GMT: Today's #1 Unseen Story. With all the developments on the streets, I doubt many noticed that former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi and journalist Hengameh Shahidi
appeared in the Revolutionary Court today. Shahidi was released last week on $90,000 bail after going on hunger strike; Abtahi has been in detention since June.
Instead of defending herself,
Shahidi asked the judge to free her friend Fariba Pajooh, whose order for detention was reaffirmed two weeks ago.
1902 GMT: Josh Shahryar, having gone through the videos and reports of today's events, estimates that 25,000 to 30,000 opposition demonstrators were on the streets of Tehran at some point during 13 Aban. An estimated 2000-3000 were marching in Isfahan, but there is not enough information yet to project the numbers in other cities.
1900 GMT:
Rah-e-Sabz has posted
an overview of the events of 13 Aban, the "Greenest day of the year".
1845 GMT: Following today's encounter between Mehdi Karroubi and Iranian security forces near 7 Tir Square, we've posted
the video of the BBC interview with Karroubi's son.
1755 GMT: Has Press TV Joined the Cause? Really. Here is the lead of
their latest report on 13 Aban, and notice who gets first billing:
Thousands of supporters of defeated presidential candidates, Mehdi Karroubi and Mir-Hossein Mousavi, have held a rally in the Iranian capital as the country commemorated the 30th anniversary of the US Embassy takeover.
The main anti-government rally took place at a central square in Tehran on Wednesday, November 4, our correspondent Leila Faramarzi reported.....
Tens of thousands of Iranians took to the streets to commemorate the day [of the anniversary of the US Embassy takeover], dubbed as the national day of fighting global arrogance. They also decried the policy of the Obama administration towards the Islamic Republic.
1725 GMT: Reports that activist Hasan Asad Zaidabadi, student activist Ali Mashmooli, journalist Nafiseh Zare-Kohan, women's rights activist Wahideh Molavi, and politicians Hojjat Sharifi, Ali Maleehi, Mohammad Sadeghi, and Mohammad Hashemi
were arrested today. Coming on top of the regime's detention of three leading members of the reformist student organisation Daftar-Takhim-Vahdat, the news is apparent confirmation of the Government's strategy to break the core of the opposition movement.
Mowj-e-Sabz has
a longer list of names of some of those arrested today.
1605 GMT: We've started
a third set of videos.
1555 GMT: And More Cities.... Reports now confirm protests in Kermanshah and Zahedan.
1540 GMT:
Parleman News has just published a story, with excellent photos, covering the diversity of both pro-Government and opposition protests in Isfahan.
1505 GMT: More on What Happened to Mousavi (see 1315 and 1345 GMT).
Mir Hossein Mousavi's website
Kalemeh reports that all communication, including cell phones and internet connections, were shut down in the area surrounding the Farhangestan Academy of Art, where Mousavi’s office is located. Dozens of plainclothes bikers, supported by security forces, gathered in front of both entrances, chanting against Mousavi. One group attacked and entered the Academy of Arts.
The attackers backed off, but Mousavi’s car, which was planning to take the leader to the rally, was prevented from exiting the Academy by the heavy presence of security forces.
1425 GMT: Regime Goes After Rafsanjani?
Sharp-eyed readers will have noticed, in contrast to previous rallies, Hashemi Rafsanjani from our updates today. Once events have settled, our analysis will probably have to account for a Green movement that can no longer for backing from or even convergence with the former President.
That doesn't mean, however, that the regime is not keeping an eye on Rafsanjani. Fars News
has just posted a lengthy article claiming that his youngest son, Yaser, was leading a group of 50-100 protesters at 7 Tir Square. Police dispersed them and arrested some of the "goons", who had damaged property. Mehdi Karroubi was forced to leave the square after seeing no one had turned up.
1350 GMT: Another Snap Analysis (see 0920 GMT).
Just before noon, I had drafted a fairly pessimistic reading of today's events, based on the rather limited turnout of "thousands" (compared to expectations), the security forces' push-back against Mehdi Karroubi, and the lack of news from other leaders like Mir Hossein Mousavi. Marchers had been unable to achieve their primary goal of getting to major gathering points for a mass statement.
Some of my EA colleagues still hold this view, but I'm now withdrawing my draft. There are too many spontaneous and re-routed gatherings to say that the Green movement has been suppressed. And the footage that we are coming from outside Tehran, more than in previous rallies, indicates that there is a spread of the opposition.
Moreover, while the quantity of protestors may be less than expected, the strength of the sentiment is not to be underestimated. Despite all the regime's intimidation and threats, demonstrators are openly calling the Supreme Leader a "murderer" and stomping on his picture. Security forces may able to use tear gas and bullets in the air to keep them from the largest squares but they cannot remove them from the streets.
There is a half-empty argument that the spread of protest through the city shows the weakness of the Green movement, as security forces can risk moving from the key points to pursue demonstrators through the city. The half-full response is that those protestors --- whether fleeing or chanting or standing firm --- are being seen.
13 Aban is now 14 hours old.
1345 GMT: We've Found Mousavi. Mir Hossein Mousavi was
not at home this morning. He is
at the Farhangestan Cultural Center, completely surrounded by plainsclothes security forces. Some have attacked and entered the building, while others are outside chanting.
1315 GMT: And Where is Mir Hossein Mousavi?
According to Rah-e-Sabz, he is under house arrest since early morning, surrounded by security forces.
1305 GMT:
More on the Karroubi Incident (see 0930 and 1054 GMT).
Mehdi Karroubi got out of his car about 1,800 feet away from 7 Tir Square. About 300 feet from the square, security forces stood before Karroubi and stopped him from going further. Tear gas was fired at where Karroubi stood. One of his guards was hit on the head with a shell and was hospitalized. Karroubi suffered skin irritation and small burns from the tear gas and was forced to leave the area.
Karroubi returned to his car, which was attacked by security forces and badly damaged. The car finally moved towards Motahhari Avenue; along the way, Karroubi got out of the car many times to talk to people. (hat tip to Josh Shahryar)
1220 GMT: Too Many Good Clips. So we've started
a second set of videos to add to
our first collection.
1205 GMT: Another City? Josh Shahryar has reports of
a rally in Isfahan with 2000-3000 people.
1150 GMT: Next Green Wave?
Reports of protests and clashes throughout Tehran, including Vali-e Asr Avenue and Square, in front of the dormintory at the Polytechnic, Beh-Afareen Avenue, and Hafez Avenue. People are moving towards Vanak Square.
1123 GMT: Oops! It appears that the
Iranian Labor News Agency was a collateral-damage victim when the Government cut off communications today. It seems that ILNA was unable to update its website for hours because of disruptions to Internet service around Enghelab Square.
1054 GMT: So What Happened to Karroubi? One of Mehdi Karroubi's sons, Mohammad Taghi Karroubi, has spoken to Radio Farda about
this morning's events in 7 Tir Square. He says Karroubi was prevented from reaching the square by police forces. Two bodyguards were injured, as well as many other people, as police forces shot tear gas canisters at Karroubi and the surrouding crowd. (One of the bodyguards is still in hospital.) Karroubi's son also says that his father did not pack up and go home but joined people in other squares.
1045 GMT:
Mowj-e-Sabz, which seems to be back to full speed, has
a lengthy summary of the morning's events. It adds Tabriz and Arak to the list of cities where protests have occurred.
1025 GMT: Regrouping. After what appears to be the setback at 7 Tir Square, Mehdi Karroubi's
Tagheer website has put out a denunciation of the "forces of dictatorship" of the police, security forces, and Revolutionary Guard who have confronted the "thousands of Iranian people" who protested this morning.
The statement appears, at this point, to be an admission that numbers of marchers have been relatively low ("thousands" rather than "tens of thousands"), putting the blame on the oppression of the regime.
1000 GMT: More on Government Strategy - Constrict and Shut Down Opposition. It appears
Mowj-e-Sabz, the best source inside Iran for developments today, is running sporadically and slowly.
0940 GMT:
The Guardian is reporting, from "a contact", more clashes in Ghaem Magham Farahani street near 7 Tir Square with some people covered in blood.
Meanwhile, Josh Shahryar passes on reports that many people were detained this morning and held in Al-Javad mosque in Tehran. We are trying to verify.
0930 GMT: The Karroubi Story.
Mowj-e-Sabz is claiming that Mehdi Karroubi was beaten by "pro-coup forces and thugs" when he joined marchers near 7 Tir Square. We are treating this claim with great caution until we can get further information.
0920 GMT: Deep Breath Time.
We're assessing here at end of Act One of today. So far, the headline events are disappointing for the Green movement: Mehdi Karroubi showed up at 7 Tir Square but soon had to withdraw (whether because of risk of violence, threat of arrest, or another reason is unclear). Security forces have prevented large gatherings at other major sites. And there has no sign of, or even word from, figures like Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami.
On the other hand, it is still relatively early in the day. Following patterns of earlier encounters, including Qods Day, the anti-Government movement will now move into a series of hit-and-run protests throughout Tehran. And there is already news of marches in other cities. That alone should keep attention on the demonstrations.
But will there be motivation and opportunity for the scattered marches to merge into one large symbolic presence, taking this day beyond 30 July and Qods Day and reviving the first post-election mass demonstrations?
0915 GMT: Blinkered Media (3). From EA correspondent: IRIB's domestic channel is no longer showing live footage of the pro-Government rally. An "expert" in the studio is blasting Western media for making up stories of anti-Government protests: "They picked up footage from [our] News Channel but implied through their own subtitles that something else is happening on the streets of Tehran. They are implying that anti-Revolutionary activity is happening on the streets of Tehran."
0910 GMT: Reports of
protests on Khogare Shomali Avenue in Tehran.
0905 GMT: We're bouncing back from a computer problem to bring you up to speed. Four videos from today --- three from Tehran, one from Rasht --- are posted
in a separate entry.
Mowj-e-Sabz is reporting
a large protest in Shiraz. That makes three cities besides Tehran where marches have been confirmed: Shiraz, Mazandaran, and Rasht.
0835 GMT: EA correspondent Mr Smith checks in to give a snap analysis:
The Revolutionary Guard wasn't joking. As feared, the threats were real.
No sign of Mousavi or Khatami--- they have been cowed off the streets. However,
the Ferdowsi Square clashes are significant, as Ferdowsi is nowhere close to the ruote of Karroubi. That shows the spontaneity of these protests. They are basically there alone --- no leader in sight --- which shows the "movement from below" nature of this crisis.
0830 GMT: Reuters is first "Western" news service
to report, "Mousavi supporters clash with police in Tehran".
BBC English has followed.
0825 GMT:
Mowj-e-Sabz is also reporting on clashes at Ferdowsi Square. Josh Shahryar is reporting that
Internet connections have been severely disrupted inside Iran. Cellphone service sporadic.
0810 GMT: The Green movement's
Mowj-e-Sabz is now posting on the morning events. It has pieces on
Karroubi's march to join the crowd,
shooting "at the crowds" (we are treating this as an exaggeration of shots fired in the air),
beatings and arrests, and
the Mazandaran protest.
0800 GMT: Momentum. We are now treating the reports of Karroubi in the crowd as confirmed;
a second good source is carrying the news.
And news is coming in of protests outside Tehran. We are treating news of a gathering in Mazandaran in northern Iran as probable, and there are unconfirmed claims of protests in Shiraz, Arak, and Isfahan.
0750 GMT: A Big Moment?
It is being reported that Mehdi Karroubi is moving towards 7 Tir Square to join crowds.
0745 GMT:
Report that "100s walk towards 7 Tir square holding up V signs. No anti-government chants. Cars honk in heavy traffic jams".
And
Josh Shahryar writes that he has confirmation that some people have been beaten up in the clashes at Tehran University and near 7 Tir Square.
0740 GMT: As with previous marches, we are in a tricky early phase where it is hard to separate truth from rumour on the clashes between security forces and protestors. At this point, it appears that the forces are trying to disperse the crowds, using tear gas and possibly firing shots into the air.
0730 GMT: Press TV English have now joined Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting for live coverage of the pro-Government rally outside the US Embassy.
0725 GMT: Earlier this morning security forces arrested Mohsen Amoozadeh, a member of youth wing of the Mousavi campaign.
0715 GMT: Government Strategy Unfolds. Reports of clashes at 7 Tir Square and between University students and security forces, as Government attempts to keep people away from the major gathering points.
0710 GMT: Latest from Twitter:
1. Security forces are completely alert at Ferdowsi and are equipped with combat helmet, batons and tear gas.
2. Forces have taken over Enghelab [Square] across from Ferdowsi.
0700 GMT: The Regime Strategy. OK, I think I have a read on how the Government is trying to shut down this day of opposition. Seal off major gathering points such as 7 Tir Square and bottle up groups like University students from reaching them. Broadcast non-stop footage of the pro-Government rally outside the US Embassy and hope no one notices the protests.
So far they seem to have had some success, but we're getting reports of "thousands" in locations from 7 Tir Square to Laleh Park and this day has only begun.
0645 GMT: Blinkered Media (2). CNN, to its credit, is highlighting the Iran story, but it is off to a bad start. The anchor started the 0610 GMT report with, "Demonstrations are underway to mark the anniversary of the US Embassy siege, and some anti-establishment protests are also expected." However, because CNN's correspondent, Shirzad Bozorgmehr, is outside the US Embassy, he sees only the thousands of students and police and army cadets chanting "Death to America" and "Death to Israel" and singing "nationalistic slogans".
Bozorgmehr continues, "I see no sign of counter-demonstrations by the opposition on the streets at all," which is not surprising since the Green rallies are beginning in other parts of Tehran. And so he keeps saying, "So far they haven't shown up."
0640 GMT: Latest reports via Twitter:
1. Helicopter are flying, roads are still filled with anti-riot and security police. People have not fully formed groups yet.
2.
Tehran University students are leaving the university by chanting "Down with Dictator".
Riot police are blocking students from exiting.
0630 GMT: Blinkered Media (Part 1). And how is Press TV covering 13 Aban so far? Live shots of pro-Government crowd outside the US Embassy with voiceover, "Iran marks 30th anniversary of seizure with anti-US rallies". Not a word, unsurprisingly, on gatherings elsewhere in Tehran.
And then the channel switches to a 30-minute profile of Jundallah, the Baluch insurgent group responsible for last month's suicide bombing in southwestern Iran.
0625 GMT: Your Comic Media Highlight of the Day.
I am not making this up. When we started blogging this morning, Press TV's English service was broadcasting a documentary called "Electile Dysfunction".
For a moment, I thought Iranian state media had decided, belatedly, to consider the incidents on and after the 12 June Presidential election. But only for a moment --- this was an old documentary on the corruptions, biases, and inequalities of the US electoral process.
0620 GMT: Reports that people starting to gather in 7 Tir Square. Also reported that
Sharif University students are moving towards Tehran University in center of the city.
0600 GMT: We have posted
the text of President Obama's statement on Iran. At first glance, it is extremely clever: Obama turns the history of the 1979 Embassy takeover into his desire to "move beyond this past and seek a relationship with the Islamic Republic of Iran based upon mutual interests and mutual respect".
Obama then moves to the current nuclear talks --- "if Iran lives up to the obligations that every nation has, it will have a path to a more prosperous and productive relationship with the international community" --- but it is his shift to the situation inside Iran that is most significant. Having already declared, "We do not interfere in Iran’s internal affairs," he concludes:
Iran must choose. We have heard for thirty years what the Iranian government is against; the question, now, is what kind of future it is for. The American people have great respect for the people of Iran and their rich history. The world continues to bear witness to their powerful calls for justice, and their courageous pursuit of universal rights. It is time for the Iranian government to decide whether it wants to focus on the past, or whether it will make the choices that will open the door to greater opportunity, prosperity, and justice for its people.
To my knowledge, this is the first direct comment by a high-level US official, let alone Obama, on Iran's political situation since June.
0555 GMT: Initial reports from Iranian sources via Twitter:
1. There are reports of heavy anti-riot police and plainclothes present in 7 Tir [Square in Tehran].
2. Family friend from Shiraz: Military and Police surrounding TV and radio station.
3. All streets ending to former US Embassy are closed.
0550 GMT: EA correspondent Josh Shahryar has written
a special analysis for 13 Aban, considering the Green movement in the context of the 1989 risings in Eastern Europe and China: "Fictions and Realities of 'Revolution'".
0530 GMT: Good morning.
It is 9 a.m., local time, in Tehran, and we are in place for a day which --- from my distant perception --- has produced the greatest excitement and highest expectation since early in the post-election crisis. As an EA reader summarised yesterday, putting 13 Aban in the context of the last mass march in Iran:
On Qods Day [18 September] we were full of fear and doubt. I personally didn’t know how big the crowd will be, we went out and throw our hearts at the sea.
Tommorw I have no doubts that there will be masses on the street. Tomorrow I have no fear when I march, for I have faced fear in the face, and won on Qods Day.
Only a fool would predict what is to unfold, but my fool's sense is that this gathering will surpass even the hundreds of thousands who emerged in various marches and gatherings on Qods Day. In the last six weeks, the Government has tried and failed to blunt, let alone crush the opposition movement. Mehdi Karroubi's symbolic appearance at the Iran Media Fair, Mir Hossein Mousavi's statements with renewed vigor and hope, the building university demonstrations, and just the amount of information and video reaching us and the world: all support our reader. Hope accompanies and possibly trumps fear, desires for the future trump resignation and passivity.
Today is 13 Aban.
Thursday, November 5, 2009 at 23:59 
UPDATE 1600 GMT: EA's Chris Emery 
The one aspect I missed in your analysis, particularly in regard to the political manoeuvrings of the Larijani brothers and the much-vaunted National Unity Plan, is any mention of the Supreme Leader. Today was undoubtedly another major blow to his personal authority. Yet he is far from an irrelevancy. Any strategy to remove Ahmadinejad will undoubtedly have to include a carefully calibrated approach to Khamenei.
Our newest EA correspondent, Mr Azadi, was involved with events through 13 Aban inside Iran. This is his running summary of the day: