The Latest from Iran (21 November): Mousavi, Khomeini, and Ahmadinejad

NEW Latest Iran Video and English Text: Mousavi Interview with Kalemeh (21 November)
NEW Latest Iran Video: “The Stone Victory” over the Basiji on 13 Aban
Iran: The Ahmadinejad Speech in Tabriz (19 November)
Iran: Green Message to Obama “Back Us Instead of Dealing With Ahmadinejad”
The Latest from Iran (20 November): Manoeuvres in Washington

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis



2035 GMT: An advance copy of Michael Slackman's article on Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, published in Sunday's New York Times, is on-line.

2030 GMT: An Iranian activist is offering a running summary of the Government's crackdown on students through arrests and detentions as well as disciplinary action by Universities.

1840 GMT: A Mousavi Trial? Mohammad Nabi Habibi, Secretary-General of the conservative Islamic Coalition Party, has demanded that Mir Hossein Mousavi be prosecuted for claiming that the Presidential election was rigged, "I believe both Mousavi and all those who propagated this big lie must face trial in a court of law."

1810 GMT: We've posted the video and Engish text of Mir Hossein Mousavi's interview with Kalemeh (see 1550 GMT for summary).

1600 GMT: Magically Appearing Crowd. We opened this morning (0745 GMT) with photographic confirmation of the disappointing crowd at President Ahmadinejad's Thursday speech in Tabriz. Kayhan, the firmly pro-Government newspaper, has published pictures, but suddenly the empty bleachers are filled with people.

No one around here is saying Photoshop. Really.

1550 GMT: 1st summary of Mousavi Interview....

People should know what the government has done with $200 billion of oil revenues in the last two years. The Majlis [Parliament] should be criticized for not controlling and overseeing Government expenditures. It is not possible to have consumer prices based on international market prices and wages based on national standards and remove subsidies.

The scope of deployment of forces on the streets on #13Aban was unprecedented. When I walked out of my office on 13 Aban [4 November demonstrations] and saw the number of forces deployed, I thought this in itself is a victory for the Green movement. [Mousavi was under effective detention throughout the day, surrounded in his offices by pro-Government activists.]

1520 GMT: Copies of Mir Hossein Mousavi's interview with Kalemeh are now circulating. We'll have a summary within an hour.

1210 GMT: Today's Media Nonsense. David Frum, the Bush speechwriter who claims to have given the world the phrase "Axis of Evil", wields an aggressive pen in Canada's National Post over "Tehran's Last Chance".

Frum begins by misunderstanding the dynamics of the current negotiations over uranium enrichment. That's OK, his forte is words rather than any comprehension of politics. But then he goes overboard with his Sketch of Doom: The Iranians could not make their message clearer if they had sent a crayoned letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency: 'We're building a bomb--and you don't dare stop us. Boom boom, suckers.'"

And the solution? Just a few missiles from Tel Aviv: "Once again --- as with the Israeli strike on Iraq's Osirak reactor in 1981, and the Israeli strike at Syria's nuclear reactor in 2007 --- the peace of the region and possibly the world will depend on Israeli strength and courage."

0940 GMT: A Bit More on the Iran-Turkey "Big Push". Yesterday we paid a great deal of attention to the Turkish Foreign Minister's visit to President Ahmadinejad in Tabriz, linking it to Tehran's counter-proposal for an uranium enrichment agreement. Mr Smith noted the pay-off of the Nabucco gas pipeline deal, which would link Turkey and Iran in one of the biggest projects of the 21st century.

Today's Press TV story: "More support for Iran to join Nabucco"

0930 GMT: Nukes, Nukes, Nukes. President Ahmadinejad, pushing for the deal that will shore up his legitimacy, followed up his Thursday address in Tabriz with a nationally-televised speech on Friday night. He embraced more talks with the "West" while contining the theme of negotiating from strength:

Today, the only tool in the hands of [our] enemies is to wage a psychological war and raise the hue and cry; but they know well that threats will have no impact on the Iranian nation....The resistance of the Iranian nation has repelled threats against Tehran.

The Iranian nation welcomes talks and interaction and presses any hand extended for cooperation. But if its dignity and rights are not respected, the nation will not give up its rights.

0900 GMT: A well-placed EA source gives us an exclusive:

This week is the Week of Basij [militia]. What is interesting is that General Naqdi, the new Basij commender, and his companions went to Imam Khomeini's shrine, but Seyed Hassan Khomeini [the Imam's grandson] did not show up to welcome them.

Seyyed Hassan did not welcome Ahmadinejad, his Cabinet, or the head of police, but when Hashemi Rafsanjani visited the Shrine he warmly greeted him. This is could be why Ayatollah Khamenei invited Seyyed Hassan to see him on Thursday "to give him some advice".

0815 GMT: Former Minister of Culture Mohammad-Hossein Saffar-Harandi, who was dismissed by the President in the controversy over the choice of First Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, has criticised Ahmadinejad in Ayande News. He claims that the President is arrogant, too easily trusts people such as Mashai, and does not accept advice.

0810 GMT: More Rumblings from Parliament. Ahmad Tavakoli, the high-profile member of Parliament and ally of the Larijanis, has declared that Ahmadinejad’s demands from the Parliament are illegal. He warned that if those demands were accepted, this would lead to the closure of a Parliament which was failing to function.

0755 GMT: Salaam News has a lengthy interview with Hossein Marashi, who is close to former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. What is interesting, beyond the clear disappointment with the Iranian system accompanied by the declaration that Rafsanjani "more than anyone else" is loyal to that system and its leadership, is Marashi's attention to the "reformists" and the Green Wave. While emphasizing that "public anger is serious", he is equally emphatic about the need for "communities of leadership" for the movement.

(Note: given what I think is a significant interview and our attention to the development and future of the opposition, I would be grateful for any comments and further translation of key sentences of this article.)

0745 GMT: Catching up with bits and pieces. An EA reader finally gave us the visuals we wanted on the crowd for Ahmadinejad's Thursday speech in Tabriz.

Picture 1 is from the Presidential campaign; pictures 2 and  3 are from Thursday.

The Latest from Iran (20 November): Manoeuvres in Washington and Tabriz

NEW Iran: The Ahmadinejad Speech in Tabriz (19 November)
NEW Iran: Green Message to Obama "Back Us Instead of Dealing With Ahmadinejad"
Iran: What Happened on Election Night? The Ghalam News Editor’s Account
Iran Nuclear Special: What Tehran’s Latest Offer Means (and Why the West Should Consider It)
Iran’s 16 Azar Video: Greens Fight “The Pirates of the Persian Gulf”
Latest Iran Video: “A Death in Tehran” on Neda Agha Soltan (17 November)
The Latest in Iran (19 November): It’s the Nukes Today

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

2225 GMT: Today's UN Condemnation of Iran. The Third (Human Rights) Committee of the United Nations General Assembly has "expresse[d] its deep concern at serious ongoing and recurring human rights violations" in Iran. The non-binding resolution passed 74-48, with 59 abstentions.

The Committee voiced "particular concern at the response of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran following the Presidential election of 12 June 2009 and the concurrent rise in human rights violations", including "harassment, intimidation and persecution, including by arbitrary arrest, detention or disappearance, of opposition members, journalists and other media representatives, bloggers, lawyers, clerics, human rights defenders, academics, (and) students".

The outcome, the Committee asserted, had been "numerous deaths and injuries" Iwith "forced confessions and abuse of prisoners including ... rape and torture".

2115 GMT: The Brussels Non-Talks and Non-Sanctions. The New York Times has snippets of the statement issued by the delegations of the "5+1" powers after their review of the nuclear talks with Iran (see 1240 GMT):

We are disappointed by the lack of follow-up to the three understandings reached [at Geneva on 1 October]....[Iran has] not responded positively to the I.A.E.A. proposed agreement for the provision of nuclear fuel for its Tehran research reactor...[or] engaged in an intensified dialogue. ....[Iran should] reconsider the opportunity offered by this agreement to meet the humanitarian needs of its people and to engage seriously with us in dialogue and negotiations....[We will meet again soon] to complete our assessment of the situation and to decide on our next steps.

Read this carefully and you'll see that "the meeting...a sign of exasperation with Iran" is issuing a holding statement while the "West" tries to figure out a response to the Iran counter-offer, giving the appearance of stern action when nothing has been or will be decided.

It's good enough to take in The Times, which has seems to have no clue about the Mottaki counter-offer (1315 GMT), Iran's manoeuvres with Russia and Turkey (0945 and 1620 GMT), or even the manoeuvres of the International Atomic Energy Agency (1620 GMT). Thus, its simple depiction of the Iranian position as "rejection".

2020 GMT: Today's Media Stupidity Awards. First, the Gold Medal for Reasoned Argument for Mindless Violence. Step up, editorial writers of The Washington Times: "Get Ready to Bomb Iran: It's the last best chance for peace".

And now the Gold Medal for "Intellectual" Dismissal of The Other Side. It's Mamoun Fandy of the Christian Science Monitor:

Should the West trust Iranian promises? The short answer is "no." But the underlying question is "Why not?"

The answer lies in Iranian belief systems – notably the doctrine of taqiyya, a difficult concept for many non-Muslims to grasp. Taqiyya is the Shiite religious rationale for concealment or dissimulation in political or worldly affairs. At one level it means that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his regime can tell themselves that they are obliged by their faith not to tell the truth.

1955 GMT: More on Student Arrests (see 1410 GMT). Radio Zamaaneh have published summaries of the detentions of student leaders this week. Payvand also has information.

1945 GMT: You Better Watch Out. Back from a break for a debate on climate change and the Copenhagen summit to Iran’s Prosecutor General and former Minister of Intelligence, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, is getting tough with protesters. He warned yesterday on Iranian state television, "The Judiciary is determined to decisively and primitively confront any new unrest [caused] by those against the results of the Presidential Elections of Iran.”

1620 GMT: You Read It Here --- The Iran-Turkey Deal. Mr Smith checks in, and we think he may have an exclusive on the nuclear discussions:

It's interesting to spot smoke signals on the nuclear issue. The meeting of Ahmadinejad and Turkish Foreign Davutoglu meeting in Tabriz makes no sense unless Davutoglu was called in to discuss the nuclear issue, given the frequency of Iranian-Turkish encounters in the past weeks.

And I find El-Baradei's statements in Berlin to be subtly quite important. He said, according to AFP, "We have not received any written response from Iran. What I got...is an oral response, which basically said, 'We need to keep all the material in Iran until we get the fuel.' That to me is a case of extreme mistrust."

This is the gist of what I wrote in my own analysis the other day: mistrust by Iran, low-enriched uranium remaining inside Iran UNTIL fuel arrives. El Baradei's statement cannot be underestimated, as it gives hope to Turkey to be able to broker the deal. Needless to say, this would be the diplomatic coup of the century by Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan. It would raise his stature incommensurably and allow him to press on with the politics of the Nabucco energy pipeline.

1500 GMT: Not much fuss about Friday Prayers today, but there's a short clip up on YouTube.

1455 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Move for Legitimacy. We've posted a copy of the President's Thursday speech in Tabriz.

1410 GMT: Cracking Down on the Students. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty summarises a story we've been following for days: "arrests [as] a move by the authorities to prevent students from protesting against the government on December 7".

1315 GMT: The Mottaki Counter-Offer. Just picking up, after prompting from an EA reader, on an important signal from Iran's Foreign Minister. Most of the Western coverage of Iran's "rejection" of the deal on uranium enrichment (rather than consideration of Iran as taking the next step in negotiations) is based on a weak translation of Mottaki's interview with the Iranian Students News Agency. Almost unnoticed was the Foreign Minister's words to the Hindu newspaper:

We believe that with the continuation of the diplomacy going on now, it is possible to reach an agreement and compromise.... The truth of the matter is [the] interaction [of the "5+1" with the Iran proposal] could somehow build confidence among the Iranians.

1255 GMT: Nuke Discussions Still On. Can't be clearer than this. The US position, as outlined in Kabul yesterday:

The U.S. doesn’t consider the Iranian foreign minister’s rejection of a United Nations- brokered proposal to enrich Iran’s uranium overseas to be “the final word,” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said.

While disappointing, she said, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki’s Nov. 18 statement won’t yet trigger the “consequences” that the U.S. and other nations on the UN Security Council have threatened.

1240 GMT: The Brussels "5+1" Talks. First (non)-news out of Brussels on discussions amongst representatives of the US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China after Wednesday's counter-offer by Iran for a "swap" of uranium. The meeting was of Foreign Ministry/State Department officials below ministerial level --- the US was represented by Undersecretary of State William Burns and Russia by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. The delegates reviewed the situation but made no decisions.

This is unsurprising. Contrary to the partial and inaccurate reports in Western media this morning (see 0725 GMT), Washington has not closed the door on discussions and is not moving aggressively for more sanctions. This meeting most likely considered a response to the Iranian counter-offer --- expect to see signals at the start of next week.

1155 GMT: Mahmoud is Proud of His Election. In his tour of Tabriz, President Ahmadinejad is emphasising that while elections in other countries are "entirely predetermined", the 85 percent participation in Iran's Presidential election in June shows the endpoint of the Islamic Republic's development.

Ahmadinejad also spoke about his economic plans, including subsidy and tax proposals, but it is notable that he --- or at least the Islamic Republic News Agency --- relegate this to a secondary position behind the President's words about an election hed more than five months ago.

0945 GMT: Two Smoke Signals on the Nuclear Deal. Turkish Foreign Ahmet Davutoglu will meet President Ahmadinejad in Tabriz today "to discuss the latest developments in Iran's nuclear case" with a view "to solv[ing] tensions between Iran and the West".

That reads as an effort by Iran to get Turkey's support for the "swap" of uranium inside Iran, rather than sending Tehran's uranium stocks outside the country for enrichment. It should be considered alongside Iran's manoeuvres with Russia: it is being reported that Russian Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko has told the Iranian Ambassador that "Russia will continue its cooperation with Iran".

0900 GMT: We've now posted an analysis of the significance of the mission by Mohsen Makhmalbaf, the campaign spokesman for Mir Hossein Mousavi, to Washington.

0725 GMT: On the surface, a quiet morning and a day that --- for the "Western" media --- will again be dominated by coverage of developments in the nuclear talks.

If last night's advance copies of articles are an indication, expect a distorted piece in The Washington Post claiming an Iranian rejection of the "5+1" proposals, highlighting a tough US response, and ignoring the significance of Wednesday's Iranian counter-offer. (That's distorted on two important counts: Tehran, or at least the Ahmadinejad Government is pushing for a deal and may have gotten some movement from the Supreme Leader to make the counter-offer, and the Obama Administration is far from concluding that the talks are over.)

That means a development which is just as important, if not more so, will be missed. The Wall Street Journal breaks the news of an "unofficial" visit by filmmaker Mohsen Makhmalbaf (pictured left) to Washington. Makhmalbaf, the spokesman for Mir Hossein Mousavi's Presidential campaign, "called for President Barack Obama to increase his public support for Iranian democrats and significantly intensify financial pressure on Tehran's elite military unit, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps".

A disturbing piece of news. Sources are claiming that Iranian security services are sending ominous SMS texts warning against further demonstrations.

The Latest in Iran (19 November): It's the Nukes Today

NEW Iran: What Happened on Election Night? The Ghalam News Editor’s Account
NEW Iran Nuclear Special: What Tehran’s Latest Offer Means (and Why the West Should Consider It)
NEW Iran’s 16 Azar Video: Greens Fight “The Pirates of the Persian Gulf”
The Latest Iran Video: Demonstration at University in Karaj (17 November)
Iran: Re-Evaluating the Green Movement After 5+ Months
The Iran Cul-de-Sac: 4 Points on Obama’s Embrace of Ahmadinejad (and Rejection of the Green Movement)
The Latest from Iran (18 November): Bubbling and Surfacing

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

2055 GMT: Keeping the Students Down. The Government effort to contain student protest continues. Iran's national student organisation Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat reports that its political director, Abbas Hakimzadeh, has been arrested.

Kohzad Esmaili, head of the Gilan branch of the alumni organisation Advar-Tahkim-Vahdat (Office of Strengthening Unity), has been re-arrested after being freed on $20,000 bail.

2045 GMT: A Non-Crowd Story? While those pre-occupied with the nuclear issue try to read Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's Tabriz speech for signals (see 1425 GMT), the Green movement has other concerns, namely those who did or did not turn out:

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad received a very cold welcome from the citizens. Yoldash, the Green news organisation in Tabriz, reported that, despite the fact that the chief of "popular welcoming staff" of Ahmadinejad assured 100,000 people would be present at his speech today, only about 10-15,000 people participated in this event which can be easily recognized in the pictures taken by pro-coup Mehr news agency.

An EA source says that the Government tried to ensure a large turnout by giving university students, school children, and workers time off and transport to the rally. However, possibly because of the rain, possibly for other reasons, seats remained empty.

1805 GMT: Is Rafsanjani Lining Up with the Government's Nuclear Proposal? Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has told the Swedish Ambassador to Iran that the International Atomic Energy Agency is legally obliged to provide 20 percent nuclear fuel to Tehran.

Sweden currently holds the European Union's rotating presidency.

1800 GMT: Clinton Speaks Out? Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared to journalists in Kabul:

It is a very unfortunate, distressing development to see these sentences handed down in Iran, imposing the death penalty on people who participated in expressing their opposition to the government in demonstrating in the streets.It underscores the approach that the government in Iran takes for their own people.

We will continue to stand up for the rights of the people of Iran to speak for themselves, to have their votes counted, to be given an opportunity to have the measure of freedom and rights that any person deserves to have

1755 GMT: What Happened on Election Night? We've posted the account of Abolfazl Fateh, the editor of Ghalam News, a paper close to Mir Hossein Mousavi.

1550 GMT: Football Politics. In its latest friendly match, Iran's national football team drew 1-1 with Macedonia. The Tehran Times says 1000 people attended; an EA source says the number was closer to 500.

Still, that's better than the 100 who turned up at the match earlier this month with Iceland.

1455 GMT: The Clerics Plot. An EA source brings intriguing information from Qom. On Wednesday, Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi and Ayatollah Nouri-Hamedani, whom Karroubi wrote last week, discussed next moves in the post-election crisis. Nouri-Hamedani reportedly said,  "I am ready to go to Tehran and talk to both sides" about a plan for national unity, and the two clerics (possibly joined by others) decided to seek a meeting with the Supreme Leader.

1440 GMT: And What is "The West" Doing? "Six world powers will meet in Brussels to discuss what measures could be applied against Tehran for its refusal to halt its nuclear enrichment program, an EU official said Thursday. Friday's meeting will include the U.N. Security Council's permanent members — Britain, China, France, Russia and the U.S. — plus Germany, the official said on condition of anonymity because she was not authorized to disclose details of the gathering."

1435 GMT: Negotiating from Strength, I Tell You. And hundreds of miles away in The Philippines, Foreign Minister Mottaki --- having put the Iranian counter-offer on uranium enrichment --- is serving as Ahmadinejad's wingman, warning against further sanctions on Iran: "“I think they [the world powers] are wise enough not to repeat failed experiences. Of course it's totally up to them."

1425 GMT: Mahmoud's Negotiating from Strength. Back from an academic break to read about President Ahmadinejad's speech in Tabriz today. His twin-track rhetoric is now established: the door is open to agreement with "the West", but Iran is holding that door open out of its principled leadership in the world, not out of weakness:

Iran is a nation supportive of peace and friendship and backs constructive cooperation on the international arena. Tehran is therefore ready to cooperate with the international community in different arenas including the revival of economy and the establishment of stable security across the globe....

....Iran is not after aggression. It only seeks its legal rights ... Those who say they want constructive interaction should know that...if the Iranian nation witnesses a genuine transparent change of their policy…if they respect the rights of the Iranian nation…if they honestly extend their hand of friendship then the people of Iran will accept [such overture]....

But the President added, "They should also know that if they are after deception and corruption in our region,” the Iranian nation would be the same “decisive” answer that it has already given to arrogant powers.

1140 GMT: Worst Media "Analysis" of the Day. In The Wall Street Journal, Mark "Black Hawk Down" Bowden explains, "How Iran's [1979] Revolution Was Hijacked". The historical part of the article is OK, with Bowden --- who has written a book on the US Embassy crisis -- claiming, "Nine months after Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi fled it was still unclear what kind of government Iran was going to have....[Ayatollah Khomeini] was ambivalent about the idea of clerical rule."

It's Bowden's jump to 2009 that turns reflection into farce: "So 30 years after seizing power, the mullahs of Qom find themselves in a difficult spot. To turn back the domestic tide of reform they must employ the very tools employed by the despised shah—mass arrests and trials, torture, execution and censorship."

Which "mullahs of Qom" would these be? Montazeri? Sane'i? Bayat-Zanjani? Dastgheib? Safi Golpaygani? Makarem Shirazi?

1050 GMT: The Preview of the Deal? Press TV, quoting from the Islamic Republic News Agency, has just posted a significant statement from Iran's envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, who says that UN inspectors will visit the second uranium enrichment facility at Fordoo today.

Here is the key line, however, from Soltanieh: "This site will from now on be under the IAEA supervision." That may be an unsubtle olive branch to the international community for the bigger deal: you can oversee our facilities inside Iran, so you can trust that we'll let you oversee uranium stocks as well.

1000 GMT: So What About Those Sanctions? President Obama may be issuing the warning that he's opening up a can of economic pain if Iran does not accept a nuclear deal, but the signals --- which we've noted for weeks --- are that the US is limited in what it can do:

Western powers are gearing up for talks on a fourth round of U.N. sanctions against Tehran over its nuclear program but will not target Iran's energy sector to ensure Russia's and China's support....The scaling back of the West's expectations for new U.N. steps against Iran for defying Security Council demands to stop enriching uranium shows that the Europeans and Americans have accepted that Moscow and Beijing, with their close trade ties to Tehran, will not let Iran's economy be crippled.

Diplomats said the Western powers are eager to ratchet up the pressure on the Islamic Republic. But they also need to keep Moscow and Beijing on board to send a clear signal to Tehran that the world's big powers are united against it.

If there is a move for UN sanctions, they will target "at least another bank, more individuals, more companies -- possibly a shipping company -- a tighter ban on arms, possibly political measures". Meanwhile, Washington will fall back on the notion that it can organise multilateral restrictions outside the United Nations. Steps could include a ban on Euro transactions for Iranian and withholding technology to produce liquefied natural gas.

0855 GMT: Extending our initial update (0650 GMT), Mr Smith brings us the Analysis of the Day, considering the latest Iranian offer in the nuclear talks and advising the "West" how to respond to it.

0815 GMT: Anticipating the protests of 16 Azar (7 December), we have posted a video "advertisement" for the demonstrations which is a pretty good parody: Welcome to "The Pirates of the Persian Gulf".

0800 GMT: Away from the nuclear issue, Michael Slackman of The New York Times has picked up on the case of Ramin Pourandarjan, the 26-year-0ld physician at Kahrizak Prison who died in mysterious circumstances (see our updates throughout this week).

0650 GMT: International media is likely to be dominated this morning by stories on the nuclear negotiations. Most outlets have noted Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's counter-proposal, replacing the delivery of 50-80% of Iran's uranium stock to Russia with a "swap" inside Iran of 20% enriched uranium for Tehran's 3.5% supply. And almost all are jumping on the soundbite reactions, from French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner to President Obama.

Obama warned again that time was short for a deal and "consequences" would follow if Iran did not accept an agreement. He did the same on Sunday but, on this occasion, he added a tough if vague post-script: "Our expectations are that over the next several weeks we will be developing a package of potential steps that we could take that will indicate our seriousness to Iran." (It's notable that not only international media like Al Jazeera but also Iran's state broadcaster Press TV are carrying the story.)

But do the news agencies really have a handle on what is going on? CNN, for example, headlines, "Iran rejects key part of nuclear deal" and drops in, as one line in a 26-paragraph story, "Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said Iran might allow its nuclear material to be reprocessed inside Iran."

In contrast, the Los Angeles Times devotes almost all of its article to Mottaki's statement. Its headline and opening sentence, however, are just as negative: "Iran's foreign minister vowed Wednesday that his nation wouldn't allow any of its enriched uranium supply out of the country." This is "either a dismissal of a U.S.- and United Nations-backed proposal to ease international tensions over Iran's nuclear program by lowering Tehran's supply below the threshold required to make a bomb, or an attempt by Iran to haggle over the deal".

None of the coverage considers that, from the perspective of the Ahmadinejad Government (and possibly others), Mottaki's response is far from a rejection or a dismissal. Instead, it is a counter-offer which keeps the discussions alive --- indeed, I suspect it may have come out of talks with International Atomic Energy head Mohammad El Baradei. It puts the question to the US and its partners: will they accept a bargain in which Iran's uranium supply is swapped for 20% fuel which is for civilian rather than military purposes? Or is the initial export and warehousing of the majority of Tehran's low-enriched supply an unconditional requirement?

Beyond the negotiating table, Mottaki's statement is a pointer to another story, one which I suspect will go unnoticed today. In the context of the Iranian establishment, this is an attempt to bring peace between battling factions. President Ahmadinejad wants an agreement --- not perpetual "haggling" but an agreement --- and Mottaki's suggestion keeps open that prospect. Others (the Larijanis? the Supreme Leader?) have consented to or been forced to accept the opening.

If the Washington-led "5+1" powers reject that proposal, however, what next? What next not only for the nuclear discussions but also for the interna contests in Iran?

The Latest from Iran (17 November): An Obama-Ahmadinejad Alliance?

NEW Latest Iran Video: The Protests of Ehsan Fattahian's Execution (16 November)
NEW The Bomb, The Bomb: Distorting the Latest Report on Iran's Nuclear Programme
NEW The Iran Cul-de-Sac: 4 Points on Obama’s Embrace of Ahmadinejad (and Rejection of the Green Movement)
Iran Document: The International Atomic Energy Agency Report on Nuclear Facilities
The Latest from Iran (16 November): Catching Up

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

1925 GMT: On a Positive Note (see 1855 GMT). The Public Broadcasting Service documentary, "Death in Tehran", on the shooting of Neda Agha Soltan airs at 8 p.m., Eastern Standard Time in the US (0100 GMT). It has been developed and filmed in conjunction with the good folks at Tehran Bureau.

1915 GMT: Former President Mohammad Khatami, speaking to Tehran University students, has called for reform of Iran's election laws and condemned violent government policies. He maintained that the “Iranian movement” cannot be suppressed by “fear":

This movement is a deep and widespread movement....The people of Iran want freedom; they want financial, economic, social and political security and because they have suffered through despotism, they want to be masters of their destiny.

1855 GMT: Worst Iran Coverage of the Day. From The New York Times review of a Public Broadcasting Service TV documentary on the death of Neda Agha Soltan:

“A Death in Tehran,” Tuesday’s “Frontline” [documentary] on PBS, is dismaying not just because it deals with a life ended in its prime. It also makes us realize just how quickly the protest movement vanished from the headlines. A part of the world that seemed on the verge of grass-roots-generated change now looks as if it’s back to business as usual.

Vanished from which headlines? Perhaps those of newspapers who are under the delusion that all is "back to business as usual" in Iran?

1850 GMT: The Convictions So Far. Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting reports that five people have been sentenced to death and 81 have received jail terms of up to 15 years in connection with post-election protests.



1840 GMT: The Iranian Parliament has confirmed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s nominees for the Ministries of Welfare and Social Security (Sadegh Mahsuli), Education (Hamid-Reza Haji Babai), and Power (Majid Namjoo).

The votes complete Ahmadinejad's Cabinet; the Parliament rejected his original appointees for the three ministries last month.

1810 GMT: New Trials. Back from an afternoon of teaching to catch up with today's trials of French student Clotilde Reiss and Iranian economist and journalist Saeed Laylaz. Al Jazeera has a video report.

1315 GMT: Widening Engagement. We've said for months that the US need for support in Afghanistan was one factor propelling the extension of the "unclenched fist" to Tehran. We have even suggested that there were quiet, back-channel talks between the US and Iran on the matter.

So this statement from Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, speaking in New Delhi: "In responding to the current Obama and US administration messages asking Iran's help in dealing with the problem in Afghanistan, we have defined the new approach....We are hopeful of taking some steps in this regard."

1125 GMT: The Death of the Prison Doctor. Another revelation in the case of Ramin Pourandarjan, the 26-year-old physician at Kahrizak Prison, who supposedly died of a heart attack or stroke (see yesterday's updates). Shortly before he died, Pourandarjan had told a Parliamentary committee of abuses of detainees at Kahrizak.

1120 GMT: We've posted video of the Tehran University demonstration protesting the 11 November execution of Ehsan Fattahian.

1055 GMT: More Leaking & Sabotage. Now I can't keep up. The Times of London benefits from a leak with a different slant: "UN nuclear chief in secret talks with Iran over deal to end sanctions".

The mission of IAEA head Mohammad El Baradei for a compromise agreement isn't exactly "secret", since we have revealed --- from the very non-secret Press TV --- that El Baradei was proposing Turkey as the third country in an Iran-Russia uranium enrichment plan and that the Iranian establishment is split over the suggestion. What makes The Times story distinctive is that the newspaper was handed a 13-page IAEA document outlining El Baradei's approach. In addition to the third-party enrichment scheme, Iran would also be a participant in a globally-managed nuclear fuel bank.

And who else has put forward that notion of a nuclear fuel bank? Step up, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

1050 GMT: Counter-Spin. And in the opposition corner from The New York Times on the IAEA report on Iran, it's the Iranian Ambassador to the IAEA, Ali-Asghar Soltanieh:

The latest report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Mohamed ElBaradei proved that political hype and propaganda about Fordo plant were baseless. The report confirmed that no centrifuges had been introduced into the facility and that no nuclear material had been used in it.

1035 GMT: And from Montazeri: Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, has replied to a letter from the mother of a detained senior member of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front:

The situation which has happened for the country is very regretful.....Calling peaceful demonstration of people a 'riot' does not solve anything. There is only one acceptable legal solution and that is returning from the path of mistake and making up for it. Freeing the political prisoners is the first step that the officials must do immediately and even preventing the freedom of innocent people for one hour is a major sin.

1025 GMT: And With Sane'i.... Grand Ayatollah Yusuf Sane'i told members of the Islamic Association of Art School on Sunday:

The increase and exacerbation of problems does not point to the domination and rule of oppression but rather is a sign of weakness....Be certain the efforts and suffering of the people, especially the academics, will be fruitful....Lying is the characteristic of oppressors, when they see they are losing ground they turn to lying and rely on lies....Increased pressure is a sign of weakness; arresting, imprisoning, and torturing are signs of weakness.

1010 GMT: Catching Up With Karroubi.... Mehdi Karroubi visited Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, who suffered a heart attack last month, in hospital yesterday. Before his illness, Bayat-Zanjani had been a strident critic of the Ahmadinejad Government.

Earlier Karroubi had spoken to reformist members of Parliament, advising youth to "avoid the violent acts which is what certain movements would want to happen....Don’t let some sick individuals provoke people to radical behaviours and as always keep rationality and humanity as the role model for the Green movement."

0925 GMT: Whipping Up the Fear. Following our updates yesterday on the initial exaggerations of the IAEA's report on Iran's nuclear programmes, we have a snap analysis of the misleading media coverage, fed by sources trying to "break" the talks with Tehran, drawing on this morning's treatment in The New York Times.

USA Today drops by to offer us further evidence: "U.N. report: Iran nuke site apt for bombs, not power".

0915 GMT: The Public Finger-Wagging. The Obama Administration's engagement strategy depends on Mahmoud Ahmadinejad overcoming domestic opposition to a nuclear deal, and Obama has to keep his own opposition at bay. So the US President issued a boiler-plate warning this morning during his press conference with Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao: "Iran has an opportunity to present and demonstrate its peaceful intentions, but if it fails to take this opportunity, there will be consequences."

0900 GMT: We're back in place after an excellent seminar in Dublin in "Blogging in Iran" with our partners at the Clinton Institute, University College Dublin. To mark the occasion (and match the headline), we've posted what we hope will be an important evaluation --- based on inside information and open sources --- of the Obama Administration's current policy on Iran.

We're also following the latest developments surrounding Iran's nuclear programme, building on the text of the International Atomic Energy Agency's report on Iranian facilities.

The Latest from Iran (13 November): Accusations

NEW Iran Text: Khatami on Legitimate Protest and Illegitimate Government (13 November)
Iran: Is This an “Unravelling” Protest Beyond Mousavi and Karroubi?
Iran: Why is Washington Belittling the Green Movement?
The Latest from Iran (12 November): Ahmadinejad Moves for Nuclear Deal

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

1805 GMT: Another Move for the Nuke Deal. Looks like the Ahmadinejad-military axis has put down another marker with the statement of the head of Iran’s armed forces, Major-General Hassan Firouzabadi, supporting the uranium enrichment agreement: “We will not suffer a loss from the exchange of fuel. Rather, in obtaining fuel enriched to 20 percent as needed by the reactors, nearly one million of our people would take advantage of its medical possibilities annually....The quantity of 3.5 percent enriched uranium [to be shipped out] is not so large as to cause damage to Iran’s supply."

1605 GMT: What's Happening at the Revolutionary Guard? Radio Fardi summarises the changes in higher commander at the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, including the head of the Tehran command. I'll have to leave it to others to assess whether these are "normal" changes in the organisation or whether there is a political story behind them.

1515 GMT: Confidence or Concern? Reuters has now picked up the statement of Mojtaba Zolnour, a representative of the Supreme Leader in the Revolutionary Guard, that the Assembly of Experts cannot remove him from office.

Zolnour told a gathering of Khamenei's representatives in Iranian universities, "The members of the assembly...do not appoint the Supreme Leader, rather they discover him and it is not that they would be able to remove him any time they wish so."

Now is Zolnour saying this because he is feeling good that the Supreme Leader is secure in his seat of power or is his warning prompted by fears that members of the Assembly, who raised the possibility of removal in August/September, may not be pacified?



1500 GMT: Football Story of Day. Or maybe, thanks to the Green movement, a non-story because there was a non-crowd. Persian2English writes about a disappointing turnout for the Iran v. Iceland match in Azadi stadium on Tuesday, citing state media: “In spite of efforts...to have spectators show up in the stadium, only 100 attended to watch the match between the two countries' national teams." (Goal.com say "only a few hundred" turned up to watch a "low-key friendly".)

1400 GMT: We've posted a long statement, adapted from the website linked to Mir Hossein Mousavi, made by former President Mohammad Khatami to academics. Khatami appears to be going to great lengths to set out "legitimate" protest (as opposed to "radical" activity) criticising the failure of the Government to serve the Iranian people and uphold the Constitution.

1315 GMT: Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has announced that Shapour Kazemi, the brother of Mir Hossein Mousavi's wife Zahra Rahnavard, will be tried in Revolutionary Court.

1200 GMT: Your Tehran Friday Prayer Report.

Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, the former head of the Guardian Council, used his speech to put 13 Aban in the "right" context. The presence of students has demonstrated the Revolution's resolve against the "enemy flag" of the United States. Washington also gave Jannati the opportunity to attack the Iranian opposition --- despite the fact that he did not see them on 13 Aban --- "$55 million" authorised by the US for subversive activities.

1100 GMT: Persian2English reports on the Revolutionary Court's sentencing of Hassan Salamat, a master’s student at Tehran University, to four years in prison. Salamat was arrested in post-election protests on charges of "propagating aganist the regime and conspiracy to disrupt national security". He spent two months in Evin Prison before being released on $200,000 bail.

1010 GMT: An intriguing interview with Tehran Chief Prosecutor Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi on the Islamic Republic News Agency website. It's intriguing in part because Doulatabadi is clearly on the defensive about allegations of abuses by the regime. He admits that the Constitution in principle puts forth open trials but gives a convoluted explanation as to why this is not possible. He also expresses the hope that some trials can be completed in the next month.

Even more interesting, however, is the politics in the interview. Pointing to the regime's ongoing manoeuvres against former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, Doulatabadi says Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi --- accused in the first Tehran trial of corruption and intrigue in the Preisdential election --- should return from Britain to Iran if he believes the charges are false.

0825 GMT: Just catching up with news this morning.

Both The New York Times and Press TV share an interest in the seizure by US Federal prosecutors of properties, including the land where four mosques sit, of the Alavi Foundation. The prosecutors claim that the Foundation, whose 36-story office tower is also being taken, is illegally providing money and other services to Iran.

The Los Angeles Times goes instead for The Bomb, with a survey considering the reactions of Arab states and people to Iran's nuclear programme.

As for us, we're starting the day with two features outlining our concern over "Western" images of the Green Wave, which may point to a US Government policy shifting against the Iranian opposition: "Why is Washington Belittling the Green Movement?" and "Is This an 'Unravelling' Protest Beyond Mousavi and Karroubi?"