The Latest on Iran (25 October): Expectation Rises

NEW Iran's American Prisoner: The Case of Kian Tajbakhsh (Continued with 15 Years in Jail)
Iran: Football’s Going Green (with the help of Press TV)
Iran: The Karroubi Effect
Iran: Karroubi Statement on Events at Iran Media Fair
Video: Karroubi & Crowd at Iran Media Fair (23 October)

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0825 GMT: Norooz has published the names of 19 reformist activists and family members, out of 71 arrested on Thursday night at the home of detainee Shahabeddin Tabatabei, transferred to Evin Prison.

0753 GMT: Nuclear Deal Still On? Your latest clue, courtesy of Press TV, that the Iranians want an agreement on enrichment: a high-profile splash on the US and Russian positions, "Medvedev, Obama find talks with Iran 'positive'".

Your latest clue, courtesy of Press TV and Iran's Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, that Tehran will spin out the process a bit longer, manoeuvring for best possible terms on "third-party enrichment" and assuring the Iranian people that it is negotiating from strength: "Iran asserts that its offer to buy nuclear fuel from the West is purely a confidence-building measure, as it has the technology to enrich uranium up to 20 percent."

0750 GMT: We've updated the story of Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh, now sentenced to 15 years in prison, with an article by Karim Sadjadpour.

0615 GMT: A morning where the significant movement is on the Iranian nuclear question. The inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency should begin their work at Iran's second uranium enrichment facility, at Fardoo near Qom, today --- Al Jazeera has video. That story will dominate "Western" coverage of Iran, possibly matched by speculation and worry over Tehran's deliberations on the Vienna agreement on enrichment. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani stirred up confusion yesterday, as we noted, with his criticism of the proposal --- still no clue, in the dramatic US-UK coverage, whether Larijani speaks for anyone (say the Supreme Leader) other than himself.

Inside Iran, however, the hot-button question yesterday was whether Mir Hossein Mousavi and/or Mohammad Khatami had showed up at the Tehran Media Fair, a day after Mehdi Karroubi appeared.

Hours later, there was no confirmation, only the continuing rumours that Khatami had been inside the Fair and Mousavi had tried to enter but turned away on the advice of security forces. Personally, I do not think either happened --- the story about Mousavi, in particular, was being pushed by pro-Government media to show the opposition leader's weakness when challenged.

Yet a non-story is still a signal. The buzz over Mousavi and Khatami amplifies the message, which we noted and evaluated yesterday, that the opposition movement is ready for another go at the regime. Fatigue and resignation give way to excitement. How much that translates into hope, rather than the energy for another show of frustration and anger, is an important but as of now unanswerable question.

Still, I think it's notable that yet another high-profile if confused Government attempt to break resistance --- the arrest of the 60 reformists and their relatives this week --- has lost its force. Indeed, the continued detention of some of the 60 contributes to the anger/frustration seen at the Media Fair and beyond. That, I suspect, will be doubly true because of the taking of women who have no "political" position in this conflict apart from the relationship to their husbands.

Caveats have to be played on the above reading. Once again, we are seeing events which are almost exclusively in Tehran. While there are significant reports of demonstrations outside the capital, especially at universities and in factories (EA sources in particular are watching Shiraz), it is impossible to assess how far the challenge to the regime extends. At the same time, what happens in Tehran --- even if it is propelled by a "minority", as pro-Government interpretation will claim --- will have a ripple effect, 4 1/2 months after the Presidential election.

It is 10 days to 13 Aban (4 November).

The Latest from Iran (24 October): Resurgence at the Fair?

NEW Iran: Football's Going Green (with the help of Press TV)
NEW Iran: The Karroubi Effect
NEW Iran: Karroubi Statement on Events at Iran Media Fair
NEW Video: Karroubi & Crowd at Iran Media Fair (23 October)
Reading Afghanistan and Iran: Scott Lucas on “The Beautiful Truth” Radio

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1935 GMT: A Note from the Media Fair. As the rumors and discussion continue over the events and protests of the week, another incident, reported by the Iranian Labor News Agency and passed on by an EA correspondent:

A stand for the "Wave of Law" website (a deliberate twist of the term "Green Wave") was dismantled at the press exhibition in Tehran for collecting signatures for a petition seeking a complaint against Mir Hosein Moussavi. The stand faced reluctance from exhibition visitors.

Permission to set up the stand for this new website was given in circumstances in which eligible applicants had been refused. Warnings from the organizers of the Tehran Press Fair were instrumental in the stand's ejection.

1920 GMT: The reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front has intervened again with an open letter to the former prosecutor of Tehran, judges, Revolutionary Guard, and the Ministry of Intelligence:

We do not open this letter with “greetings”, as it is a symbol of all that you and your colleagues have denied us and those like us....The mass assault of the agents of the former Tehran prosecutor on the central office of the Participation Front, the election headquarters, and newspapers as well as the mass arrest of the members of the Participation Front, other political, and media activists happened not long ago, and the wave of arrests still continue.

This time you and your colleagues have created a new wonder. Thirty years after the establishment of the “Islamic” system, you silenced the “O God! O God!” prayer in the throats of this nation’s sons and daughters and the innocent families of [political] prisoners by your weapons and handcuffs. We remind you of this because it is the duty of every Muslim to stop their religious brothers and sisters from committing bad deeds that we hope are not being committed deliberately and knowingly but rather unintentionally and under pressure.

Before it is too late come to your senses and don’t be the tools of oppression for the tyrant masters of power. Someday that God willing is coming and is not too far away, they will be too caught up as the results of their words and actions to be able to help you.

1715 GMT: We haven't forgotten you. It is just a relatively quiet period in Iran, and we're heading out to catch up with friends and colleagues. Back later to round up the day's events.

1530 GMT: Saturday Football Story. Looks like the Green wave has made it into a photo of the Iran national team on the Press TV website --- see separate entry.

1455 GMT: The Curious Development with the Nuclear Deal. Something very strange is happening as the Iranian Government deliberates whether to accept the Vienna proposal on uranium enrichment.

Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani has now come out against the agreement, declaring, "Westerners are insisting to go in a direction that speaks of cheating and are imposing some things on us. They are saying we will give you the 20 percent [enriched uranium] fuel for the Tehran reactor only if you give us your enriched uranium. I see no link between these two things."

Larijani's remarks follow those of the Deputy Speaker, Mohammad Reza Bahonar. Neither have had a role in the current negotiations with the "5+1" powers, although Larijani was the former head of Iran's nuclear programme.

So is Larijani, like Bahonar, just staking out some Parliamentary autonomy over whether the deal goes through (and, if so, why)? Or is he reflecting the views of the Supreme Leader, whose endorsement is required for the agreement to proceed?

1430 GMT: For almost two hours, rumours have been racing that Mohammad Khatami and/or Mir Hossein Mousavi have been at the Iran Media Fair this afternoon. The Iranian Labor News Agency was even reporting that Khatami was inside the Mossalla, where the Fair is taking place, before removing the article.

Latest rumours include that Mousavi approached the Fair but did not enter on the advice of security and that one man disguised as Khatami was arrested.

1100 GMT: "Western" Media Foolishness. If Iranian media are highlighting their capacity for distortion and misinformation in their coverage of the Karroubi-Media Fair events, their British counterparts are giving them a run for their money with their representation of Iran's position in the uranium enrichment talks (as we predicted at 0845 GMT). The Times proclaims, "Barack Obama's policy on brink of collapse",while The Daily Telegraph --- citing that most reliable of sources, Mr John Bolton --- yells, "Israeli Military Strike More Likely".

1035 GMT: More Other Side of the Story (see 1015 GMT). The strategy of the Islamic Republic News Agency is to use a member of the Parliament's Cultural Commission to argue that Mehdi Karroubi and his supporters planned yesterday's events at the Media Fair as part of their strategy for "overthrow" of the Iranian system.

Fars News, meanwhile, continues to push the story as one of pro-Government crowds confronting Karroubi with the "Death to the hypocrite" chant, to which Karroubi's bodyguards responded by brandishing guns.

1030 GMT: Deaths in Tehran. Iranian state media is reporting six people, including a judge, have been killed in the Iranian capital. The incident, however, appears to be unrelated to post-election conflict and instead stems from a "family dispute".

1015 GMT: The Other Side of the Story. It is illuminating to compare Mehdi Karroubi's account of the Media Fair experience with that from state media. Press TV portrays a balanced reception --- "Former Iranian presidential candidate Karroubi has been met with slogans both in favor of and against himself....The opponents shouted 'Liar, get lost' and 'Death to Monafeq [hypocrite]' while the proponents chanted, 'Long live Karroubi'." There's also a balance in blame for the violence, "The fair turned into a scene of clashes and some booths were damaged after the politician was attacked by a shoe."

No balance or indeed context in the headline, however: "Karroubi's bodyguard fires into air at Tehran fair".

0920 GMT: We've posted the English translation of Mehdi Karroubi's statement on yesterday's events at the Iran Media Fair in a separate entry.

0855 GMT: Responding to Karroubi. In a signal of the interaction of yesterday's events with the growing clerical movement against the regime, Grand Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani talked with Mehdi Karroubi by phone after the incidents at the Media Fair. Bayat-Zanjani expressed his admiration for Karroubi’s resistance in front of obscene and hideous acts, calling him a fighter and a true believer: “The more influential you are, the more they [Ahmadinejad supporters] resist you and these insulting attempts [just] reveal how successful you are.”

0845 GMT: The Enrichment Deal is On. Just to be clear, while there will be much huffing and puffing about devious/manipulative/dangerous Iran today, Tehran's delay in signing the Vienna deal on third-party enrichment is --- for now --- only another step on the path to agreement.

The US signalled that it would allow more time for Iran's decision, while making the necessary tough noises, in a statement by State Department spokesman Ian Kelly:

Obviously we would have preferred to have a response today. We approach this with a sense of urgency. We can stretch things for a few days, and that's really what we're talking about. But we're not going to wait forever.

An EA reader adds that there is also an easing of hostility in the French media on the Iran nuclear issue, with newspapers like Le Monde accepting that Tehran's response will come next week.

0745 GMT: Pedestrian has posted an English translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's remarks on Wednesday to the staff of his Kalemeh Sabz newspaper, which was raided and closed by Government forces on 22 June: "We must not allow the events of the past few months to create pessimism about the revolution."

0725 GMT: Inevitably we are picking up on two major stories this morning.

On the international front, the signs continue that the Iranian regime --- albeit several days after a deadline because of its gamesmanship and the rumblings of its bureaucracy --- will accept the uranium enrichment deal. While it deliberates, the Government has offered another significant concession to the "West"; officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency will arrive in Iran on Saturday to inspect the second uranium enrichment plant at Fordoo near Qom. The visit will last 2-3 days.

However, it is the Mehdi Karroubi story that dominates our initial thoughts this morning. As conversation continues to buzz about his appearance at the Iran Media Fair, the crowd enthusiasm, and the subsequent scuffles, we've posted an analysis of the significance.

Latest Iran Video: Karroubi & Crowd at Iran Media Fair (23 October)

Iran: The Karroubi Effect
Iran: Karroubi Statement on Events at Iran Media Fair
Iran: Enduring America Leads, The New York Times Follows
The Latest from Iran (24 October): Resurgence

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Extended Video of Karroubi's Appearance

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ujG9wAnyp3E[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsltaiNtmMo[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aI-KztJ58bc[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rU4ovXENTfQ[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzBq785XenU[/youtube]

The Latest from Iran (23 October): Karroubi Appears

NEW Latest Iran Video: Karroubi & Crowd at Iran Media Fair (23 October)
Reading Afghanistan and Iran: Scott Lucas on “The Beautiful Truth” Radio
NEW Iran: Enduring America Leads, The New York Times Follows
NEW Iran Bombings: Former Pakistan Intelligence Chief Blames US
The Latest from Iran (22 October): Unsteady as She Goes

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2255 GMT: Steady as she goes with the Western media mulling over the significance of Iran's delay on acceptance of the uranium enrichment deal. The truth is that, given the intracacies (and perhaps disorders) of Tehran's decision-making system, we won't know for a while. For now, it's a matter of reading clues, and the strongest --- with Iranian state TV putting out the line of a "positive response" --- is that the Iranian Government is gradually putting the proposal through the system.

But we'll stand by our initial projection this morning (0630 GMT): the bigger story is inside Iran. Mehdi Karroubi's appearance at the Media Fair, with the loud and fervant chants of his supporters and  the scuffles with bystanders and security forces, will ripple throughout Tehran's political circles. Once again, Karroubi has not backed down (altogether now --- Bring. It. On.), so once again the opposition movement has a boost amidst the Government's ad hoc but still notable shows of force. Indeed, the reformists now get the convergence of the negative, with the arrest of the 60 party members and relatives on Thursday, and the positive with Karroubi's mobilising of public sentiment.

1748 GMT: We're taking a Friday night concert break so will be back later with a round-up on all the news from Iran's nukes to Karroubi at the Media Fair.

1745 GMT: The official statement from the International Atomic Energy Agency says, "Iran informed the Director General today that it is considering the proposal in depth and in a favourable light, but it needs time until the middle of next week to provide a response. The Director General hopes that Iran's response will equally be positive, since approval of this agreement will signal a new era of cooperation."

1730 GMT: Fereshteh Ghazi has posted a series of updates on the status of the 60 people arrested --- some freed, some still detained --- last night.

1645 GMT: Oh, You Teases. Having made the world wait all day for a reply to the deadline for acceptance of the third-party enrichment plan, the Iranian Government is indicating it will formally respond to the proposal next week, says Press TV. Tehran is still putting out the public line that it would prefer to buy uranium directly from other countries.

This could be a tactic to make the West wait and show some Iranian independence, both to home and foreign audiences. Equally, it could be the product of an Iranian system which is in a bit of disarray and confusion over internal and external events.

1630 GMT: Quick update on Friday Prayers. Not much to report from Tehran: Hoatoleslam Kazam Sadighi, very much a supporting cleric in the FP line-up, used the address to call for a "second cultural revolution" in Iran's universities. That message follows the line laid down by the Supreme Leader in a speech in August.

1430 GMT: Fars News, betraying worry about the significance of Mehdi Karroubi's appearance at the Media Fair, have rushed out an article which claims people, chanting "Death to the hypocrite!", chased Karroubi from the exhibition. A photograph smacking of Photoshop shows Karroubi being struck in the head by a shoe as he tries to get into a car. Fars also claim, "One of the bodyguards of this failed presidential candidate fired into the air to disperse the crowd, an act that is rarely carried out by bodyguards of personalities in this country." (English summary from HomyLafayette)

1420 GMT: Norooz reports that 60 people were arrested at last night's prayers for detained reformist Shahabeddin Tabatabei. The newspaper provides the names of many of those detained.


1415 GMT: We've posted two videos of the enthusiastic reception for Mehdi Karroubi's arrival at the Iran Media Fair in Tehran today.

1245 GMT: Report that Mohammad Reza Jalaiepour, detained earlier in the post-election crisis and arrested against last night, has been released.

1230 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has entered the Iran Media Fair to chants from supporters. Parleman News adds that there are reports of scuffles started by pro-Ahmadinejad groups. Karroubi was escorted outside, though it is unclear whether by his followers or by security forces in an effort to protect him.

1200 GMT: Stalling, Game-Playing, etc. State television is reporting that the Iranian Government is balking at signing the uranium enrichment agreement today. An official says, "Now we are awaiting a positive and constructive response on Iran's proposal from the other party on providing nuclear fuel for Tehran's reactor. The other party is expected to avoid past mistakes in violating agreements ... and to gain Iran's trust."

1155 GMT: Grand Ayatollahs Montazeri and Sane'i have added their voices to those condemning last night’s arrests of 30 Islamic Iran Participation Front members and relatives.

1100 GMT: Union Battles. Meanwhile, on the economic front, there are signs of further unrest for the Government. A strike in Ahvaz received some attention, and an EA reader has just tipped us off the following, adapted from the Persian2English blog:

Members of the board of directors for Haft-Tappeh’s sugar cane labour association are on the verge of getting fired or being imprisoned.

According to reports, threats and pressure on board members and labour workers from Shoosh intelligence service has increased. Since the morning of Wednesday October 21, company guards, who worked under the control of Shoosh intelligence service, prohibited four members of the board from going to work. Three were sentenced to six months of jail time with physical punishment and six months of jail time with partial bail, and one was sentenced to four months of jail time with physical punishment and eight months of jail time with partial bail.

Mr. Ali Nejati, the head of the board of directors of the sugar cane labour association was fired and prohibited from going to work. Over the past six months he has not received any payments or benefits.

1040 GMT: An EA correspondent follows up on our story about the Iran Media Fair, in which the Kayhan "hard-line" newspaper reportedly had to remove its guestbook and flag after they were decorated with pro-Mousavi slogans and Green ribbons:

I went there the first day, Tuesday. The large Kayhan booth had a gaggle of journalists around a table. Different people were taking turns signing the guestbookit. One signed it with a Mousavi slogan, the next with an Ahmadinejad slogan, repeat, rinse.

It was orderly, everyone was pushing up and taking pictures of the guestbook. That went on for at least 3 hours. I left, and perhaps then they "removed" it, but what was more remarkable was that the whole thing seemed playful when I was watching it. That kind of stuff happens here, more often than the bad stuff, actually.

1000 GMT: Still waiting for news of Friday Prayers in Tehran. Meanwhile, the families of political prisoners have condemned last night's arrests of 30 members of the Islamic Iran Participation Front: “If you have no mercy on our innocent children, at least have mercy on your religion; stop ruling in the name of Islam and stop dishonouring Islam."

0855 GMT: On a more serious note with our friends at The New York Times: it appears they are still intent on trying --- through naivete, mischief, or really bad journalism --- to demolish the draft agreement for third-party enrichment of Iran's journalism.

All week David Sanger has been led by the nose to proclaim that Iran was walking out of the talks (not true) and that Tehran was already plotting to circumvent the agreement (speculative propaganda fed to him by "Western officials"). Now Robert Worth chips in with "Iranian Lawmaker Dismisses Uranium Plan".

To give Worth some credit, at least this incident --- unlike Sanger's --- did happen. As we noted yesterday, Reuters was pushing the story that Deputy Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Reza Bahonar said that the deal to send Iran's uranium to Russia for processing was "not acceptable".

But we also noted that Bahonar has nothing to do with the Iranian Government's consideration of the proposal --- he is a member of Parliament sniping from the outside. And we suggested that the comments of Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran's lead negotiator in the Vienna talks, might be far more important, as he signalled that Tehran would accept the agreement.

On reflection, intrepid New York Times colleagues, go ahead and steal from us (see 0840 GMT). Because channeling off-the-record comments and Reuters' unchecked reports isn't doing anyone any good.

0840 GMT: In a separate entry, we've just had a bit of fun with Michael Slackman of The New York Times, who seems to have stolen our line on Mehdi Karroubi for his story this morning.

0815 GMT: The deputy head of security forces in Sistan-Baluchestan, describing Sunday's bombing, has repeated claims that the attacks are part of "the U.S. plan to create insecurity in our country".

0630 GMT: For the international media, "Iran" today means attention to the Vienna talks, where the Iranian regime and the "5+1" powers face a deadline to accept the draft agreement on third-party enrichment of Tehran's uranium. Make no mistake, however: the bigger stories are inside Iran.

The significance of last night's arrests of members of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front, gathered to pray for detainee Shahabeddin Tabatabei (see yesterday's updates), is still not fully known. This was of course a spiteful move against Government opponents, but is it a one-off raid or part of a wider, renewed campaign to break the Green Wave and anyone associated with it? Have President Ahmadinejad and the Iranian security services, whom we believe have been on the back foot since Sunday's bombings, decided to re-assert themselves or is this more a sign of a disjointed regime lashing out in an ad hoc fashion?

The answers should emerge in Government activities over the next 72 hours. Today is the Iranian weekend but still there may be clues in hostility directed at Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and their followers. Even then, questions would remain. How does the regime deal with the rising discontent from senior clerics? And will the pro-Ahmadinejed forces go even farther --- with political moves and "information" --- to blunt the National Unity Plan of conservatives and principlists?

Answers are unlikely to come from Friday Prayers, which are likely to be a relatively low-key affair. And President Ahmadinejad spent Thursday night talking to academics in general terms about the necessity of building "community" for progress and excellence.