The Latest from Iran (8 September): Picking A Fight?

NEW Iran Urgent Analysis: Is This the Defining Showdown?
Iran: Ahmadinejad Chooses Confrontation Over Compromise and Governing
UPDATED Iran: Mousavi HQ Raided by Security Forces
Iran: Green Wave Resurgent?
The Latest from Iran (7 September): Countdown to 18 September Begins

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2020 GMT: One to Watch. The last posting on the Etemade Melli (Saham News) website, a full report on Mehdi Karroubi's Eftar dinner party for the employees of the Etemade Melli newspaper), went up at 1:10 p.m. Tehran time (0840 GMT).

2015 GMT: In the midst of developments, this from Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani's address to members of a reformist faction earlier today (1510 GMT): "Power is not the foundation of legitimacy; rather legitimacy is the foundation of power. Some think that by playing with words they can change this."

1945 GMT: I don't think we realised this morning, when we chose the title for the updates, how appropriate the question would be.

Cross-posted from our emergency analysis, "Is This A Defining Showdown?": "Just after 1800 GMT, Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor, Alireza Beheshti, was arrested. (We held off posting until this was confirmed in a reliable source.) The only step up from this action is the arrest of leaders such as Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi."

So far no Western media outlet, to our knowledge, has picked up on the story.

1855 GMT: "New" v. Mainstream Media.

Report of raid on Mehdi Karroubi's office on Enduring America: 1340 GMT.

Emergency analysis of raid on Karroubi office on Enduring America: 1415 GMT.

1st report of raid on CNN's website: 1743 GMT.

1845 GMT: Press TV's website has acknowledged the raid on Karroubi's office with an account lifted word-for-word from the report in Parleman News (see 1340 GMT).

1710 GMT: A Revolutionary Guard official has said that the recent comments of IRGC Commander Mohammad Ali Jafari, claiming that former President Khatami and other reformists seek to "unseat" the regime, are "backed by evidence" given to Iran's judiciary which the IRGC is willing to publish.

1700 GMT: Radio Farda reports that Ayatollah Javadi-Amoli has expressed his intention to carry on the work of the Committee for the Tracking of Prisoners, whose offices were raided yesterday.

1555 GMT: The family of the late Ayatollah Taleghani, whose memorial ceremony was blocked by the Government for the first time since his death in 1979, have announced an alternative site for the gathering.

1510 GMT: Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, speaking to reformists, has claimed that the headquarters of the Supreme Leader no longer have any shame before God or people.

1420 GMT: We have posted an emergency analysis, "Is This the Defining Showdown?"

1350 GMT: Reuters has an English-language summary of the raid on the Karroubi offices.

1340 GMT: URGENT Mehdi Karroubi's office has been raided by security forces on the orders of Tehran's chief prosecutor. CDs, documents, videos, and computers have been seized.

The editor-in-chief of Etemade Melli website, Mohammad Davari, has been arrested. Karroubi aide Morteza Alviri was arrested at his home. An Etemade Melli party spokesman said Karroubi had been escorted out of his office by the security forces.

1335 GMT: A source on the National Security Council has told Norooz that President Ahmadinejad ordered yesterday's raid on the offices of the Committee for the Tracking of Prisoners.

1320 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi (pictured) has issued another statement via an interview in Saham News. Following up his weekend comments on the investigation of detainee abuse, he said false accusations, such as the report of an arrest warrant for his son over a financial dispute, are threats to silence him.

Karroubi emphasised that he will not give up defending people’s rights, urging people to join him in the Qods Day demonstration on 18 September.

1235 GMT: Make That a Triple Signal. Farhad Tajari, a member of the Parliamentary committee investigating detentinons, has said, "Members of this committee had some criticisms over the conduct of trials of detainees accused of being linked to the recent unrest. One of the points we stressed during the meeting was to immediately release those detainees who did not have big roles in the unrest."

1205 GMT: A Double Signal? Press TV is featuring two articles on post-election conflict. Neither of the developments are new, so it's their timing of their re-appearance that raises eyebrows.

This morning, Press TV reported, from State television, "Iranian authorities say they have launched an investigation into public complaints regarding the post-election unrest, with a focus on charges of prisoner abuse. The Supreme National Security Council has formed a committee to look into the cases of those who sustained losses of any kind after the June 12 presidential elections."

Since a Parliamentary committee was set up weeks ago to consider the allegations, this is far from an unprecedented development. However, the move from the legislature to the Executive, with the NSC's involvement, is at least a symbolic step up. Add to that the specific focus of Press TV's article, which is line with the Supreme Leader's public statements, "The officials are investigating the charges of mistreatment made by a number of detainees who were held at the Kahrizak detention center." (Pay attention also to the highlighting of the death of Mohsen Ruholamini, which prompted so much conservative and principlist fury with the Government.)

Two hours later, Press TV posted the statement of the Governor-General of Tehran Province, Morteza Tamaddon, from Fars News: "A panel has been formed in Iran's Supreme National Security Council which is closely looking into events that unfolded in a Tehran University dormitory….The investigation will be seriously conducted to reach a final result."

Previously, Tamaddon has been notable for tough talk against protestors. This statement brings him in line with the position taken by Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani within two weeks of the 12 June election.

So are we seeing, 72 hours before the Supreme Leader's Friday Prayers address, a convergence around specific investigations? This would give at least a token acknowledgement of claims brought by the opposition, while at the same time emphasizing the need for "unity" and "observance of the law". It would bring together Ayatollah Khamenei, the Larijanis (Ali and head of judiciary Sadegh), key figures in Parliament and senior clerics, and maybe Hashemi Rafsanjani?

And, if this is the case, has President Ahmadinejad been told?

1105 GMT: Stopping the Gatherings. The Government has withheld permission for the memorial ceremony for the late Ayatollah Taleghani, a key figure in the Revolution who died in 1979. According to Taleghani's daughter, this is the first time in 30 years that a permit has been denied.

The obvious explanation is that the regime, which has cancelled other Ramadan ceremonies including those at Ayatollah Khomeini's shrine, is fearful of any occasion where people can gather and express opposition.

1005 GMT: President Ahmadinejad has withdrawn his "replacement" nominations of Fatemeh Aliya as Minister of Education and Ali Zabihi as Minister of Energy. The original nominees were rejected last Thursday.

0950 GMT: It Just Got Interesting. Fars News reports that the Supreme Leader will lead this Friday's prayers in Tehran.

No further details but look for Ayatollah Khamenei to try and pre-empt the Green movement's plans for Qods Days demonstrations the following Friday, possibly in combination with prayers led by Hashemi Rafsanjani. The Supreme Leader will do that by calling for "unity" and, while acknowledging that the Government needs to serve the people, upholding the system.

Two questions: 1) if this is indeed Khamenei's speech, are he and Rafsanjani finding common ground?; 2) will the Supreme Leader cross the line and issue threats against opposition leaders?.

If the answer to 1) is Yes, then we may be seeing an alignment trying to resolve the crisis. If the answer to 2), then the conflict continues.

Meanwhile, the head of Iran's police, Brigadier General Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, has warned against demonstrations "politicising" Qods Day. (Big thanks to reader Ali for pointing us to both these stories.)

0915 GMT: Larijani's Manoeuvre. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has positioned himself behind yesterday's call by the Supreme Leader for the Government to heed "benevolent criticism": ''In uncertain situations we should take advantage of Supreme Leader's advice and thoughts''. What may be more interesting is the possibility that he is converging with Hashemi Rafsanjani's call for unity, ''All governments and societies have differences in ideology, strategy and tactics. Prejudgment is a trap for pluralism which should be avoided in current situation."

And, if I read this right, Larijani is calling for the opposition to back down from its challenge to the legitimacy of the Government over detentions and trials: "If we want to solve differences we should all follow the Law even if it may have defects."

0840 GMT: Josh Shahryar's "Green Brief" roundup of Monday's developments is now posted.

0715 GMT: The Detentions Issue. One of the important political dances right now is that between the three-member judiciary panel and Mehdi Karroubi, as he sets out the claims of detainee abuse. We didn't give this justice on Saturday, so are picking up now. Karroubi said:
"I offered [the panel] three documents at [Friday's] meeting. The first was a video statement by the individual who has gone missing because of threats issued by the representative of Judge Saeed Mortazavi. My second document was about the [sexual] assault of a woman. The third was a document about one man who was subjected to various calamities after his arrest and I offered a CD and the medical examiner’s report on him as well. In that session I also offered two verbal reports as well."

One of the [verbal] reports was about Taraneh Mousavi….I told them her family [is so scared] after the incident that they refuse to even let the girl who was with their daughter on that day [when she was taken] into their home anymore… [I told them] that you, as the officials of this country, must visit the family yourselves and find out the truth of matter….Go to Karaj city’s Imam Khomeini Hospital and seek the doctor’s opinion about the injuries on this girl’s body.

The case of Mousavi, raped and killed in detention, has raced around the Internet, with rumours as to who might have been responsible and why the incident has been covered up.

On a wider front, however, this is a political showdown. Karroubi had agreed with the panel not to reveal any details of discussions, but one of the members, Deputy Judiciary Head Ebrahim Raeesi, told the press that Karroubi had not presented any evidence for his accusations. It was then that the reformist cleric broke his silence.

We await the next developments.

0650 GMT: We've spent this morning on a special analysis of President Ahmadinejad's latest political strategy, which seems to consist of shoving around his opponents as "dust" and "contaminants", and the tension that it might have caused within the regime.

That tough approach is evident in two other developing stories. We've got new information and analysis on last night's raid on the offices of the Committee for the Tracking of Prisoners, run by Mir Hossein Mousavi's staff. And today the Government is pushing ahead with its public display of strength against the opposition, putting three prominent reformist detainees --- Saeed Hajjarian, Mohammad Atrianfar, and Saeed Shariati --- on television for a "roundtable" confessing the errors of their political activity. The showpiece is part of the campaign to control discussion and activity at Iranian institutions, as the trio discuss the "promotion of pathology at the University of Western humanities, and the social and political consequences that come from following elites and political activists and Western ideas".

Iran: Ahmadinejad Chooses Confrontation Over Compromise and Governing

Iran: Green Wave Resurgent?
The Latest from Iran (7 September): Countdown to 18 September Begins

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The headline event yesterday was last night's raid on the offices of a committee, made up of Mir Hossein Mousavi's staff, investigating the abuse of detainees. We've got an update in a separate entry.

Yesterday's wider political story, however, was less dramatic as it evolved throughout the afternoon. We're still working through it, but it looks like President Ahmadinejad has once again stirred the pot --- not only versus the opposition but within the regime --- with some over-the-top talk.

Ahmadinejad's press conference yesterday morning was a delayed celebration of his win in getting almost all of his Ministers through Parliament --- it was supposed to be held last week but the delay in confirmations changed the plan. He used it primarily to crow about the election and his vanquishing of the opposition with the "victory of the Iranian nation’s morality against immoralities" and "success in removing contamination from Revolution".

So, instead of taking a calmer tone and talking down confrontation, the President was taking Iranians back to his first victory speech, on the weekend after the election, when he dismissed his opponents as "dust".

But Ahmadinejad once again did not get away with it.

It is one thing for reformists to criticise the President for his words, another for others in the Establishment to take offense. Have another look at yesterday's updates: the Supreme Leader's admonition to the Cabinet to listen to "benevolent criticism" now appears as a direct response to the President: back off the macho chatter and concentrate on governing the country.

Even more important, Ahmadinejad's speech prompted the Society of Militant Clergy to break cover and issue their first post-election statement with the call "to seriously try to solve people’s problems and the country’s economic and social issues, and avoid talking about unnecessary and provocative issues". The Society is "conservative", but as it includes members such as Hashemi Rafsanjani, it cannot be considered an unconditional supporter of the Government.

For EA, one of the recurrent themes of the post-election conflict has been that opportunities for compromise, and thus some resolution of the crisis, have been passed up. Ahmadinejad's first victory speech, the Supreme Leader's Friday Prayer address of 19 June, the decision to hold the Tehran trials, and the President's recent introduction of Friday Prayers are all examples. Ahmadinejad just added another.

There is a split of opinion here amongst the significance of this tough line. For some at EA, it is a sign of the growing strength of Ahmadinejad, backed by political allies and the Revolutionary Guard, and his skills as a street-fighting politician. For others, including me, it is a high-risk strategy which is trying to cover up his weaknesses.

And, to return to yesterday, here may be the primary weakness, beyond the talk of a new wave of protest and the manoeuvres of Mousavi-Khatami-Karroubi: Ahmadinejad has to govern. But because he is not as comfortable governing (and arguably not as good as governing as he is at issuing challenges and threats), he is always likely to return to the language and image of his triumph in the confrontation of his opponents.

Is that his undoing? Far too dramatic a question and far too soon to tell.

UPDATED Iran's Victims: The 72 People Killed in Post-Election Conflict

The Latest from Iran (6 September): The Reformists Speak

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UPDATE 8 September: HomyLafayette, one of the foremost Twitterers and bloggers on the Iran crisis, has posted further information on the 72 people, including photographs and links to videos and stories about their lives and deaths, beginning with Hossein Akhtarzand (pictured).

Josh Shahryar of Anonymous Iran writes: Norooz, the official news outlet of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front, has published the names of 72 people who have died to date during protests on the streets, in detention, or from injuries sustained during the violence in the aftermath of the elections. This is only a list of those deaths that could be fully confirmed; the number of casualties could be much higher.

The list includes 12 women and 60 men, the majority of whom were under 35. About half died in two major protests, the first mass demonstration of 15 June and the "illegal" gathering on 20 June. The list does not include many names that have surfaced in the past few days, such as the slain detainee Saeedeh Pour-Aghaie.

The overwhelming majority of people on the list have died in Tehran. There are a few in Isfahan and no word on casualties in other cities. Bullet wounds seem to be the major cause of death, followed closely by beatings with batons and torture at prisons.

The first 25 names are those whose families have contacted the campaigns of Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi to confirm the death of their loved ones.

1. Mr. Hossein Akhtar-Zand, 32 years old. Died on June 15 in Isfahan after being thrown down a three-story building by Basiji militia.

2. Mr. Kianoosh Asa, post-graduate student. Died on June 15 in Tehran's Azadi Square after being struck by a bullet fired by plainclothesmen. His body was identified nine days later and collected from a morgue in Tehran by family members.

3. Sohrab A'rabi, 19, high school student. Died of injuries sustained under torture at Evin Prison in Tehran. A'rabi's mother was informed of his death nearly a month after his disappearance.

4. Name: Mr. Alireza Eftekhari, 29, reporter. Died on June 15 of a brain hemorrhage after being struck with batons on the head and other parts of his body. His body was returned to his family on July 13.

5. Neda Agha-Soltan, 27, philosophy student. Died on June 20 on Tehran's Kargare Shomali Avenue of a gunshot wound to the heart, fired by a plainclothesman. Buried at Beheshte Zahra's Section 257 the next day.

6. Amir Javadifar, 25, student of industrial management at Qazvin's Azad University. Died on July 9 of a seizure inside a van while being moved from Kahrizak to Evin. Had been blinded by blows to his head and face.

7. Moharram Ghagini Gheshlaghi, 34. Buried in Beheshte Zahra's section 256, row 156, grave #13.

8. Masood Khosravi. Died on June 15 at Azadi Square and is buried at Beheshte Zahra.

9. Abbas Disnad, 40, laborer. Died after being beaten with batons on the head.

10. Ramin Ramezani, 29. Died of internal bleeding in a hospital after being released from detention. Buried at Beheshte Zahra. Section 257, Row 46, Grave #32

11. Mohsen Rohulamini, 25. Died on July 9 after sustaining injuries during torture in detention.

12. Ashkan Sohrabi, 18, IT student at Qazvin University. Died on June 20 at the junction of Rodaki and Sarsabil Avenues in Tehran after being shot by Basijis and other security forces thrice.

13. Amir Hossein Toufanpour, 32. Died on June 19 after being shot thrice in the leg, arm, waist and side. There were visible bruises on his neck and a deep hole on the back of his head which was filled with cotton and a broken arm. His nose seemed to have been broken as well.

14. Saeed Abbasifar Golchini, 24, seller of shoes and purses. Died on June 20 in Tehran after being struck by bullets fired by security forces.

15. Mostafa Ghanyan, graduate student at Tehran University. Died on June 15 in Tehran University's dorms during a raid by security forces. Buried in the courtyard of Imam Reza's shrine on June 18 under tight security.

16. Ali Fathalian. Died on June 20 in front of Lolagar Mosque. Buried in Beheshte Zahra. Section 9, Row 110, Grave #22.

17. Hadi Fallahmanesh, 29, laborer. Died in Tehran and is buried in Beheshte Zahra - section 53.

18. Ahmad Kargar Nejati. Died of torture wounds in the hospital. Buried in Beheshte Zahra - section 213, Row 15, Grave #35.

19. Behzad Mohajer, 47. Died on June 15 of a gunshot wound to the chest. Body kept at Kahrizak detention facility's morgue.

20. Nader Naseri. Died on June 20 at Khosh Avenue in Tehran. Buried in Babol.

21. Ahmad Naeemabadi. Died of a gunshot wound at Azadi Square. Shot fired by IRGC's Ashoura 117 Battalion.

22. Masood Hashemzadeh, 27. Died on June on Shademan Avenue in Tehran of a bullet to the chest which tore through his lungs and caused severe internal and external bleeding. Buried in northern Iran.

23. Mehdi Karami, 17. Died on June 20 at the junction of Janatabad and Kashani avenues after he was badly beaten and his throat was slit by a knife. Body was kept at Payambar Hospital in Ashrafi Isfahani Boulevard.

24. Naser Amirnejad, 25, student of aviation and space technology at Azad Islamic University in Tehran. Died on Mohammad Ali Jinnah Street in Tehran after being sprayed with bullets by Basijis. Body was kept at Payambar Hospital's morgue and was buried in a village close to Yasuj.

25. Mahmood Raeesi Najafi, construction worker. Died on June 28 after being shot by security forces on Azadi Square and beaten badly with batons. Died at home 13 days later.

[The families of deceased protesters below have not gotten in touch with Karroubi's or Mousavi’s campaign offices and are under pressure from the Government to refrain from public acknowledgement of the death, let alone the cause of death, of their loved ones.]

26. Mobina Ehterami. Died on June 15 at Tehran University's dorm. Body was buried in secret without her family's knowledge.

27. Neda Asadi

28. Saeed Esmaeeli Khanbeen, 23. Died of blows to the head.

29. Morad Aghasi

30. Hossein Akbari. Died of blows to the head.

31. Vahed Akbari, 34, laborer. Died on June 20 at Vanak Avenue of a bullet wound to the lower side. Buried at Beheshte Zahra - section 261.

32. Mohsen Entezami

33. Mohsen Imani. Died on June 15 in Tehran University's dorms. Body was secretly buried without his family's knowledge.

34. Fatima Barati. Died on June 15 in Tehran University's dorms. Body was secretly buried without her family's knowledge.

35. Mohammad Hossein Barzegar, 25, laborer. Died on June 17 on Hafte Tir Square in Tehran of a bullet shot to the head. Buried on June 21 in Beheshte Zahra, Section 302.

36. Jafar Barvayeh, lecturer at Chamran University of Ahvaz and candidate for doctoral degree at Tehran University. Died in Baharestan Square in Tehran of a bullet shot to the head. Forensics report that he died of a brain hemorrhage.

37- Yaghoub Barvayeh, graduate student of theatre arts at University of Art and Architecture in Tehran. Died on June 25 of a bullet wound to the head after being shot in front of Lolagar Mosque by Basijis from the roof of the mosque.

38. Soroor Boroomand, 58, died on June 15 on Mohammad Ali Jinnah Avenue in Tehran.

39. Hameed Besharati, 26. Died on June 20 in Tehran after being shot by security forces several times.

40. Farzad Jashni. Died on June 20 in Tehran.

41. Bahman Jenabi, 20, employee of a radiator repair shop. Killed in Tehran.

42. Mohsen Haddadi, 24, computer programmer. Died on June 15 at Nosrat Avenue in Tehran after being shot in the forehead. Buried on June 23 in Beheshte Zahra - section 262.

43. Shalir Khezri. Died on June 16 at Baharestan Square in Tehran.

44. Fatima Rajabpour, 38. Died on June 15 on Mohammad Ali Jinnah Avenue in Tehran.

45. Babak Sepehr, 35, died on June 20 in Tehran after being sprayed with bullets by security forces.

46. Fahimeh Salahshour, 25, high school graduate. Died on June 15 at a hospital of internal bleeding after being hit by batons on the head at Valiasr Square on June 14 in Tehran.

47. Tina Soodi, university student. Died on June 20 at Enghelab Square in Tehran after being shot.

48. Hasan Shapouri

49. Ali Shahedi, 24. Died in the Tehran-Pars police station on June 21. Forensics could not determine the cause of death; however, the family believes he was killed after being struck with batons on the head at the station.

50. Kasra Sharafi. Died on June 15 in Tehran University's dorms. Body was secretly buried without family's knowledge.

51. Kambiz Shoa’ee. Died on June 15 in Tehran University’s dorms. Body was secretly buried without family's knowledge.

52. Davood Sadri, 27, shopkeeper at Salsebil Avenue. Died on June 20 in front of Lolagar Mosque in Tehran after being struck with a bullet in the head.

53. Seyyed Reza Tabatabayee, 30, bachelor's degree in accounting. Died on June 20 on Azerbaijan Avenue in Tehran. Family forcefully sworn to secrecy by security forces and buried on June 24 in Beheshte Zahra - section 259.

54. Vahid Reza Tabatabayee, 29, bachelor's in English. Died on June 24 in Baharestan Square in Tehran of a bullet wound to the head. Buried on June 27 in Beheshte Zahra - section 308.

55. Hossein Tahmasebi, 25. Died on June 15 in Nobahar Avenue in Kermanshah after being attacked and beaten by security forces.

56. Salar Tahmasebi, 27, undergraduate student of trade management in Rasht. Died in Jumhoori Avenue of a bullet to the forehead. Buried on June 23 in Beheshte Zahra - section 254.

57. Meisam Ebadi, 17, worked at a carpet store in Tehran. Died in Sadeghiyeh in Tehran.

58. Abolfazl Abdollahi, 21, graduate student majoring in electrical sciences. Died on June 20 in front of Sharif Industrial University after being shot in the back of the head. Buried on June 23 in Beheshte Zahra - section 248.

59. Hamid Araghi. Died in Azadi Square, Tehran after being shot.

60. Pour Kaveh Ali, 19. Died on June 20 in Tehran.

61. Hossein Alef. Died on June 17 in Isfahan.

62. Reza Fattahi

63. Parisa Kolli, 25, BA in Literature. Died on June 21 in Keshavarz Boulevard in Tehran of a gunshot wound to the neck. Buried on June 24 in Beheshte Zahra - section 259.

64. Mostafa Kiarostami, 22. Died on July 17 of blows to the head with batons in front of Tehran University. Was there to take part in Friday prayers.

65. Mohammad Kamrani, 18. Was beaten badly on Valiasr Square and died of his injuries on July 9 in Mehr Hospital, Tehran.

66. Hamid Maddah Shoorcheh, activist working for Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign headquarters. Died on June 15 in Mashhad shortly after being released of injuries sustained during torture in detention. Forensic experts ruled a brain hemorrhage as the cause of death.

67. Maryam Mehrazin, 24. Died on June 20 in Tehran as a result of gunfire by security forces.

68. Taraneh Mousavi. Died on June 28 after she was arrested in front of Ghoba Mosque. Charred body was found between Karaj and Qazvin.

69. Iman Namazi, undergraduate student of architecture in Tehran University. Died on June 15 in Tehran University's dorms after the attack by security forces and plainclothesmen on the dorms.

70. Mohammad Nikzadi, 22, BS in architecture. Died on June 16 in Vanak Square, Tehran after being shot in the chest. Buried in Beheshte Zahra - section 257.

71. Iman Hashemi, 27, laborer. Died on June 20 on Azadi Avenue, Tehran. Died after being shot in the eye. Buried in Beheshte Zahra - section 259.

72. Milad Yazdanpanah, 30. Died on June 20 in Tehran after being shot by security forces.

UPDATED Iran: Mousavi HQ Raided by Security Forces

Iran: Ahmadinejad Chooses Confrontation Over Compromise and Governing
Iran: Green Wave Resurgent?
The Latest from Iran (7 September): Countdown to 18 September Begins

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UPDATE 8 September: An EA correspondent brings new information and the probable reason for the security forces' raid.

The offices involved are not the main Mousavi headquarters but those of a special committee, established by Mousavi staff and led by Alireza Beheshti, the Committee for the Tracking of Prisoners.

The immediate cause of the raid is probably the committee's provision of the names and description of 72 people killed in post-election violence, published in Norooz last weekend (and an English translation in Enduring America yesterday). The regime was punishing Mousavi's staff for their actions, but it also may be trying to identify those who have been providing information to the opposition. In other words, this is both a blatant political move and a clumsy attempt to acquire intelligence.


A relatively quiet day in Iran and then (from Norooz via the Facebook page of Mir Hossein Mousavi):

"At 4:30 p.m. (GMT +3:30) Security Forces attacked the Staff office of Mir Hossein Mousavi which was responsible for following the issues of the detainees, without any legal permission. All documents were confiscated and taken out to... an unknown destination. When Staff members asked for receipt, security forces answered that no documents will be given back, thus there will be no receipt!!"

The initial interpretation, from this entry, is that the regime is trying to get rid of material that may incriminate officials over the issue of detainee abuse. There is, however, the possibility that security forces are on a "fishing expedition", looking for documents that could be give pretext for a court case against Mousavi staff members and advisors.

The Latest from Iran (7 September): Countdown to 18 September Begins

NEW Iran Urgent: Mousavi HQ Raided by Security Forces
Iran: Green Wave Resurgent?
Iran’s Victims: The 72 People Killed in Post-Election Conflict
Iran: Resistance and Music – New Shajarian Song “Language of Fire”
The Latest from Iran (6 September): The Reformists Speak

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2030 GMT: No Criticism Here. Press TV's website writes out the admonition of the Supreme Leader to President Ahmadinejad and the Cabinet to take heed of "benevolent criticism" (see 1830 GMT). Instead the report emphasizes Ayatollah Khamenei's declaration about the legitimacy established by the election, “The nation and the Islamic Revolution have proven their republican nature. If officials, elites and political experts understand this fact, many of the country's problems will be resolved."

1930 GMT: Is the Regime Targeting Leaders' Children? That's the question asked by one of our readers, who noticed the arrest of Atefeh Emam, the 18-year old daughter of Mir Hossein Mousavi's Chief of Staff, Javad Emam, who is still detained himself. She was reportedly released earlier today, after 24 hours of continuous interrogation, near a Tehran cemetery.

Earlier in the crisis, the regime arrested several members of the family of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, and pressure has been placed this week on the son of Mehdi Karroubi.

1830 GMT: Khamenei Manoeuvres. In a line which is not that far from the "conservative" Society of Militant Clergy criticism of the President, the Supreme Leader has advised Ahmadinejad and his Cabinet: "There is internal criticism backed by foreign media with the aim of sabotage but there is also benevolent criticism which may not come from supporters of the government but they contain good comments."

1710 GMT: Clerics Warn Ahmadinejad. The reformist Association of Teachers and Researchers of Qom have issued a statement warning that the regime cannot be maintained with military force, arrests, and brutality.

More intriguing, however, may be a finger-wagging at the President from the "conservative" Society of Militant Clergy, their first intervention in the post-election crisis:

We ask the president and the government to seriously try to solve people’s problems and the country’s economic and social issues, and avoid talking about unnecessary and provocative issues. The comments made and the disrespect committed in the debates, speeches and rallies before and after the election caused divergence.

The Society criticised the opposition for pursuing demands "outside law", but it also called for "consoling" those harmed in the unrest.

Possibly Relevant Fact: One of the members of the Society is former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.

1645 GMT: A Norooz News article, featured on Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook page, says that:

"Security Forces attacked the Staff office of Mir Hossein Mousavi which was resposible for following the issues of the detainees, without any legal premisson. All documentations were confiscated and taken out to... an unknown destination. As Staff members asked for receipt, security forces answered that no documents will be given back, thus there will be no receipt !!"

(Thanks to Mike Dunn for covering, as I was stuck in traffic when this came through. We have posted as a separate entry, cleaning up some of the text and adding a brief analysis.)

1430 GMT: We've been watching since reports came in yesterday of a meeting in Qom between Grand Ayatollahs Golpaygani and Makarem-Shirazi. Now the website of the Green movement, Mowj-e-Sabz, is reporting that there were several Grand Ayatollahs and senior clerics, including Bayat-Zanjani, Montazeri, and Mousavi-Ardebili, in the discussion of "practical steps against the coup government", after receving letters from political and social activists.

1340 GMT: Fars News reports that Press TV will soon air a "roundtable" of detainees Saeed Hajjarian, Mohammad Atrianfar, and Saeed Shariati on the causes of their "change of attitude and intellectual development".

1130 GMT: We're here but it is a very slow day, with little breaking on the political front.

There is one story that catches the eye. According to Tehran Bureau, via a source, the revelations of the abuses of detainees in Kahrizak Prison cames from a photographer for the Supreme Leader.

The well-known documentary maker and photojournalist, who recorded the eight-year Iraq-Iran war and became a ‘Sacred Defense’ photographer, was arrested during the post-election unrest and taken to Kahrizak where he was abused and tortured. After his release, he informed Ayatollah Khamenei about jail rapes and prisoner abuse. When the Supreme Leader expressed disbelief, the man revealed that he was one of the victims: "What they did was inhumane and in violation of all human rights… When they did those things to me, in my eyes it was you who was doing them."

Soon after this, Khamenei ordered the closure of the notorious detention center.

(The photojournalist was one of the cameramen who made Mir Hossein Mousavi’s campaign films, although it is unclear if they played any part in his arrest. He has also worked on a documentary about Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.)

0850 GMT: If the BBC was paying attention, rather than trotting along with the notion of Iran's Nuclear Programme Above All Else (see 0820 GMT), it might have noticed these comments from President Ahmadinejad in his press conference, directed at the opposition movement:

The election and post-election events was victory of Iranian nation's morality against immoralities. The other victory of Iranian nation was success in removing contamination from Revolution.

0840 GMT: Rafsanjani Speaks. A small amendment to the end of today's analysis, "The large presence of Hashemi Rafsanjani has disappeared." The former President said, at a ceremony to commemorate Ayatollah Ali Qoddousi, Iran's prosecutor general who was killed by Mujahedin-e-Khalq Organization (MKO) in 1981:

It is a vital need of the Islamic Republic and establishment to find a way to strengthen national unity and establish peace in the country. In the recent events, the sides should act in a way which will guarantee national unity.

Small amendment, indeed, as the statement just repeats Rafsanjani's cautious, hold-the-line comments that we evaluated in mid-August.

0820 GMT: MediaWatch. The New York Times does another good job this morning, picking up on the Khatami statement and Mousavi letter (though missing Karroubi's moves) that we've highlighted all weekend and in today's analysis. The Washington Post also mention Khatami and Mousavi but hide the impact by tucking them away under a headline on an older story, "Iran Canceling Major Ramadan Events in Wake of Election Protests".

CNN are nowhere to be found, preferring to go with "Chavez Pledges Closer Ties with Iran". Al Jazeera also gets distracted by the Venezuela dimension. Even worse at the BBC, which falls for the Iranian President's "Look Over There!" trick, "Tehran 'ready for global talks'".

0800 GMT: We heard about this story all day yesterday and are keeping a close eye on it (any information would be welcomed):

A group of Revolutionary Guards have resigned from the force according to Hosein Hashemian, an Iranian lawmaker. Mr. Hashemian told Parleman News Website that the unacceptable interference of the Revolutionary Guards in political matters has caused a rift in the force.

The story of resignations, including those of unit commanders, has been about since the start of the crisis, and more than 30 Islamic Revolution Guard Corps members have been arrested.

However, at this point without further confirmation, I am treating this as a bit of "psychological warfare" from the opposition to unsettle the Government. In particular, it is part of the fightback against the recent statements of the Revolutionary Guard's chief commander, General Mohammad Ali Jafari (see our separate analysis today): Hashemian called for Jafari to be detained for his claim that former President Khatami and other reformists were trying to "unseat" the regime.

0655 GMT: We've spent the morning on two special pieces. First and foremost, Josh Shahryar of Anonymous Iran's "The Green Brief" has spent hours translating into English, from the list provided by the Iranian website Norooz,  the names and descriptions of 72 people killed in post-election violence. Given that regime figures like high-ranking member of Parliament Alaeddin Boroujerdi have been trying to deny there is any evidence for the deaths, we think this is a vital document of record.

The second piece is an analysis, after a weekend of opposition statements, of the current political situation and the question of whether the Green Wave is moving towards a high-profile display of resistance on Qods Day, 18 September.