Iran: Green Wave Resurgent?

Iran’s Victims: The 72 People Killed in Post-Election Conflict
Iran Analysis: How Important is the Mousavi Statement?
Text: Mousavi Statement to “Green Path of Hope” (5 September)
The Latest from Iran (6 September): The Reformists Speak

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And so the next wave? After the recent pre-eminence of President Ahmadinejad's quest for authority, backed by threats to quell the opposition challenge, yesterday brought an intriguing combination of Green statements.

All three of the most prominent figures were in play yesterday. Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement to "The Green Path of Hope" has sparked an excellent debate, including on yesterday's updates and on our special analysis, of the significance for the opposition. Mehdi Karroubi pressed his claims of detainee abuse, manoeuvring with the three-person judiciary panel investigating the cases. And Mohammad Khatami struck back vigorously at the regime's efforts to direct --- through injunctions to administration and faculty, through curriculum revisions, and through threats to instutions like Islamic Azad University --- "proper" studies. There were also fightback statements from reformist MPs and clerics against the Revolutionary Guard's efforts to intimidate the opposition with the claims that the Green movement was pursuing "regime change".

As has been the case throughout this crisis, anyone who ventures to predict the fate of this latest wave is either a fool or a visionary far beyond my capabilities. Some markers can be set down, however.

This time, the opposition activity may be moving toward a defining junction in the challenge to Government legitimacy. Publicity through the Internet, flyers, and word-of-mouth is already pointing towards the last Friday of Ramadan, 18 September, which is also Qods (Jerusalem Day). Under the working slogan of "Silence = Consent", activists are looking to mobilise the biggest march since 18 Tir (9 July) and the biggest event since the 40th Day memorial of 30 July, possibly in conjunction with prayers led by Hashemi Rafsanjani.

With a wave of protest which seeks to build over 11 days, the watching brief should be not to expect a major challenge until the 18th but to look, each day, for some step-by-step statements and actions that indicates, "We are here, and we are gathering strength."

And that effort may be aided by an emerging factor on the other side. While noting all the indications of an Ahmadinejad campaign to establish his leadership, supported by the security forces, the President also now has to govern. Little things like the economy, delivery of services, and re-nominating ministers for the posts of Health, Education, and Energy come into play after three months of near-stalemate.

All those little things take time away from the direct contest with the opposition because --- as we noted a few days ago --- the long-term Achilles' heel for the legitimacy of this Government is Iran's economic and social infrastructure. And this far-from-minor diversion opens up some space for the opposition to gather itself.

But, to put in a third (of many) consideration. In all the paragraphs above, indeed in weeks going back to mid-August, the large presence of Hashemi Rafsanjani has disappeared. While Mousavi calls for the "Green Path of Hope", while other protestors try to build up a momentum that (paradoxically) will not collapse with a single setback, while Ahmadinejad tries to rule....

Where will Rafsanjani be on 18 September?

The Latest from Iran (6 September): The Reformists Speak

Iran Analysis: How Important is the Mousavi Statement?
Text: Mousavi Statement to “Green Path of Hope” (5 September)
Middle East/Iran Inside Line: Israel Presses Ahead with Settlements, Tehran Draws Line on Nuke Talks
The Latest from Iran (5 September): A Quiet Phase

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2000 GMT: Psychological Warfare. Unsurprisingly, the Fars News story that Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali is the subject of an arrest warrant, due to a financial dispute with the mobile phone company Irancell, appears to be a bit of fiction to shake up the reformist movement.

The specific claim is that Ali Karroubi is connected with Persian Telecom, which failed to carry out advertising obligations for Irancell. However, Irancell has told Saham News, connected with Karroubi party's Etemade Melli:

Mr. Ali Karroubi does not hold any shares in Persian Telecom....The two companies have a business association in the form of purchasing Irancell products and selling them and therefore no advertisement is done on behalf of Irancell by Persian Telecom. (Translation from Tehran Bureau)

1925 GMT: The Reformist Fightback. A series of reformist members of Parliament and clerics have been striking back at the comments of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps commander, General Ali Mohammad Jafari (see 1730 GMT), all day. The latest is Hojatoleslam Alikhani, a cleric and MP, who has emphasised that the military should not enter political issues.

1920 GMT: The Battle for the Universities (Cont.). Iranian newspapers and the Islamic Republic News Agency report, “The Institute for Humanities and Cultural Studies [has been] tasked by the Supreme Cultural Revolution Council to revise the human sciences curriculum."

The head of the Institute declared, “In our country a large part of the syllabus… is not in line with our Iranian-Islamic culture. This calls for a revision." The syllabus will be revised
“based on the supreme leader’s recommendations.” (Agence France Press has an English summary.)

1730 GMT: Pursuing the Revolutionary Guard. Following up our last update yesterday, The Assembly of Combatant Clerics had responded to the claims of Revolutionary Guard Commander General Mohammad Ali Jafari, alleging that former President Khatami and other prominent reformists have tried to "unseat" the Supreme Leader and Government, by filing a formal complaint against Jafari and Keyhan newspaper for publishing lies and insulting several members of the Assembly.

1725 GMT: Responding to claims by Deputy Head of Judiciary, Ebrahim Raeesi, that he had not presented any evidence of detainee abuse in his meeting with the three-member panel investigating the claims, Mehdi Karroubi has described three documents that he presented.

1715 GMT: Hey, Look Over There! According to Press TV, the Supreme Leader gave visiting Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez a quick international lesson on Sunday: "The US had far greater failures in the Islamic Republic of Iran than in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon and Palestine. A power has been formed in this region which was once regarded by the US as its courtyard."

Surprisingly, the article offered no reference by Ayatollah Khamenei made to Iran's internal situation.

1440 GMT: Regime Goes After Karroubi. Fars News reports that an arrest warrant has been issued for Mehdi Karroubi's son, Ali. The cause of the action is a financial dispute involving one of Iran's largest mobile phone companies, Irancell, for whom Karroubi's company was supposed to sell phone cards. The amount involved is almost $2.5 million.

Nice touch, by the way, for Fars to use this as the illustration for the story:


1305 GMT: Josh Shahryar's "Green Brief" summarising the events of Saturday is now out.

1255 GMT: As the regime pushes its campaign for a "proper" academic sector (see 0740 GMT), former President Khatami held his own discussion with the Islamic Association of University Teachers. He pointedly challenged both the Supreme Leader's call on academics to be the commanders in a war against "Western" soft power and last Friday's prayer address in Tehran for a "non-Western" approach to humanities. Khatami expressed his opposition to those who in the name of fighting western liberalism, were forcing people to follow their path by employing fascism and totalitarianism ideologie and warned the authorities to start rebuilding public trust before all the opportunities are wasted."

1015 GMT: Business as Usual. Deputy head of judiciary Ebrahim Raeesi, who seems to be the regime's "hold-the-line" guy on detentions and prosecutions, declared Saturday that the replacement of Saeed Mortazavi as Tehran prosecutor by Abbas Jafari Dolatabadi will make no difference to the current approach: “The trials will continue and we will do our best so that the rule of law is upheld and justice prevails."

1010 GMT: Methinks He Doth Protest Too Much. Presidential spokesman Aliakbar Javenfekr is a bit upset at the claim, highlighted by Deputy Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Reza Bohanar (see Friday's updates), that up to six of the Ministerial nominees only got approval after the Supreme Leader's intervention of a letter to Parliament: "This was not an order at all but a consultative and friendly view which compelled the lawmakers to work more tolerantly with the government." Bahonar was "insulting the lawmakers who through their independent, conscious, and intelligent vote helped establish a powerful, efficient government".

0850 GMT: The three-member judiciary panel investigating allegations of detainee abuse has said that Mehdi Karroubi has formally submitted the names of four detainees who will appear before the panel if invited.

0810 GMT: We've split off our opening update on the reformist fightback as a separate entry, "How Important is the Mousavi Statement?"

0800 GMT: No, No, It Ain't So. The head of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, is insisting that the claims of 72 deaths in post-election violence are "questionable, given the fact that no detail on the identity of the victims has been present".

We linked Friday to the Farsi-language site Norooz, which has collected the names and descriptions of the dead, but we're hoping to help Mr Boroujerdi later today with an English translation of the list.

0740 GMT: In recent days, we've been updating on the regime's statements linking academia and the "proper" post-election path in Iran, including the Supreme Leader's address to heads of universities and research centres as "commanders" of the fight against foreign "soft power" and the statement in last Friday's prayers in Tehran warning against "Western-style" instruction in humanities.

Today The New York Times has an excellent article by Robert Worth today, "Iran’s Universities Punish Students Who Disputed Vote". Drawing from Iranian website, it not only notes the arrests and summoning for questioning of politically active students but also writes that "a presidential panel has begun an investigation of the humanities curriculums at universities".

The lengthiest passage, however, summarises the academic and political fight around Islamic Azad University:

Significantly, several clerics and high-ranking officials have taken aim at Islamic Azad University, which is based in Tehran and has branches around the country. The university is largely run by the family of former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a powerful moderate and leading opponent of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

“This university must once again be purified,” Ayatollah Muhammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi, the president’s spiritual adviser, said during a meeting with new cabinet members, the Rouydad Web site reported. “This purification must occur at the management level and other levels. You see just how many who do not believe in religion, Islam and God have attended and graduated from this university.”

Another cleric, Muhammad-Reza Babai, called for the new minister of higher education to review Azad’s management charter, during a Friday Prayer sermon in the central city of Kerman. The new minister, Kamran Daneshjoo, has also accused Azad of failing to meet standards.

Iran: Resistance and Music - New Shajarian Song "Language of Fire"

The Latest from Iran (6 September): The Reformists Speak

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We have followed the story of the legendary classical Iranian singer Mohammad Reza Shajarian, who forebade Iranian state media from playing his music after President Ahmadinejad, in his election "victory" statement, called the opposition "dust".

Shajarian has just released a new single and it has been set to video by opposition activists. (Warning: some of the images are graphic.) The lyrics follow the video:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3BLcos6OPI[/youtube]

Lay down your gun,
As I hate this very abnormal shedding of blood.

The gun in your hand speaks the language of fire and iron,
But I, before this fiendish tool,
Have nothing but, the language of the heart,
The heart full to the brim with love for you,
Who are in love with the enemy.
The language of fire and iron is the game of fury and bloodshed.
It is the language of Genghis Khan.
Come, sit down, talk, hear.
Perhaps the light of humanity will get through to your heart, too.
My brother, if you want me, sit down for a brotherly chat.
Lay down your gun,
So that the human-killer leaves your body
How much do you know about the ethics of humanity?
If God has bestowed the soul, why then you take it away?
Why, in the twilight of ignorance,
Do you want to roll and wrap up your brethren in dirt and blood,
The God-given soul?
Let's suppose you are right, my brother, in seeking and telling right and correct things.
But we ought to not seek even righteous things through the fire-spewing gun.
If it once happens that the pangs of conscience bother you,
Then lay down your gun.

Iran Analysis: How Important is the Mousavi Statement?

Text: Mousavi Statement to “Green Path of Hope” (5 September)
The Latest from Iran (6 September): The Reformists Speak

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It took 48 hours but, after the assertion of Presidential authority with the approval of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet and the cancellation of events such as the Qadr Night ceremony at the Khomeini shrine, the Green movement fought back yesterday.

There were the criticisms from reformist members of Parliament, both of the Revolutionary Guards' threats against leaders like former President Khatami and Mousavi Khoeniha and of the cancellation of the Khomeini shrine event, where Khatami was due to speak. There was Mehdi Karroubi's vigorous statement that he would "defend the values of the revolution and the nation’s interests as long as he lives".

And then there was the statement of Mir Hossein Mousavi.

Our sharp readers will have noticed our impression that, over the last month, Mousavi was either being pushed or was withdrawing to the sidelines of this conflict. Yesterday he tried to assure his followers (and his enemies) that this was not the case.

We've published the English translation in a separate entry. Let's just say here that this is a rousing call for "The Green Path of Hope". It is forthright in setting out both a defense of the post-election movement and its difficulties it has faced from a regime "creating crises and catastrophes and keeping away from any attempt to solve the problems and quandaries in society". And it declares "a crucial necessity to take a social approach (instead of only a political approach) to solving the current conflict".

Mousavi's implication is that a head-on political challenge to President Ahmadinejad is not going to bring results, given the power that the regime holds through security forces and Parliament's unwillingness to force a showdown. So, to bring about "restoration of...forgotten objectives" of the Islamic Revolution, Mousavi is proposing a "broad social movement to repair and create some of the most fundamental political foundations that will influence all affairs of the country and provide the essential needs of various committees and parties for proper and fruitful activism".

This may dissatisfy some activists as a diversion from the political arena. On the other hand, Mousavi is pointing to a longer-term effort, building links within and across sections of Iranian society to ensure that resistance --- on religious, legal, economic, and social grounds --- is maintained and to build pressure for change.

It should also be noted, contrary to some initial reports, that the statement is not void of political objectives. Mousavi sets out nine demands, including a "truth-finding commission", a revision of election laws, punishment of those committing post-election abuses and crimes, release of detainees, and freedom of the press. Together with the efforts of Mehdi Karroubi and others, the platform maintain a focus on the Achilles' heel for the regime: the continued system of detentions, "confessions", and trials.

Middle East/Iran Inside Line: Israel Presses Ahead with Settlements, Tehran Draws Line on Nuke Talks

The Latest from Iran (6 September): The Reformists Speak

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Israel Pushes Ahead with Settlements: On Friday, a senior Israeli government source reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would approve the construction of hundreds of new housing units in West Bank settlements before he declares a moratorium. Significantly, these "hundreds of houses" are beyond  the 2,500 housing units currently being built.

The Israeli source claimed that Netanyahu informed U.S. officials weeks ago of his decision to authorize the additional construction. The White House, however, "regretted" the reports:

We regret the reports of Israel's plans to approve additional settlement construction... Continued settlement activity is inconsistent with Israel's commitment under the road map.

Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas called Netanyahu's planned approval of the West Bank construction as "unacceptable", and Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini said the new construction has been criticized by all 27 EU ministers.

Iran Draws Line on Nuke Talks: On Friday, Iran's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Ali Asghar Soltanieh, accused the United States of using "forged documents" to make its case that Iran is building nuclear weapons:

By interfering in the work of the IAEA and exerting various political pressures, the government of the United States attempted to spoil the cooperative spirit between the Islamic republic of Iran and the IAEA... The government of the United States has not handed over original documents to the agency since it does not in fact have any authenticated document and all it has are forged documents.

The agency didn't deliver any original documents to Iran and none of the documents and materials that were shown to Iran have authenticity and all proved to be fabricated, baseless allegations and false attributions to Iran... Therefore, this subject must be closed.