Iran Snap Analysis: Playtime's Over

No doubt about it. Politics, conflict, and manoeuvring are back in Iran. After the New Year’s holiday, almost all the players were on court yesterday — the Supreme Leader, the President, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Mir Hossein Mousavi, reformist MPs.

This re-surge of politics, marked by the fight over Ahmadinejad's subsidy cut and spending proposals and the meeting of reformists with Mousavi, Rafsanjani, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami, has even caught the eye of journalists who have written little since the supposed bust of the Green Movement on 22 Bahman (11 February).

The non-Iranian media has only a limited view, however, and are scrambling for explanations: The New York Times, for example, decides that the Supreme Leader has come down strongly on the side of Ahmadinejad in the subsidy battle --- a fair hypothesis, but the "proof" comes from the declarations of the Islamic Republic News Agency and Press TV. (The Times article also takes no note of the Mousavi-Rafsanjani-Karroubi-Khatami meetings with reformists.)



What does all this mean? A proper analysis will take some time and will also need to be flexible to take account of the rush of developments, but here are some starting points:

1. This conflict has always been more than just the Green Movement v. the regime. Some coverage of 22 Bahman (11 February) fed that misleading view; the events yesterday demonstrate that we can now put away the narrative of "it all ended on that day".

2. Rafsanjani, Mousavi, and the reformists all signalled that they want to work within the framework of the Islamic Republic, and Rafsanjani in particular made it clear that there should be no challenge to the Supreme Leader. At the same time, all also stated firmly that the Government has distanced itself from the people, the marker of continuing and possibility escalating challenge to Ahmadinejad.

3. The meetings with the reformist coalition of MPs emphasised the importance of Parliament in the Iranian system. That is not just deference to those were in attendance; it is a sign that the Majlis is seen as the site of a move against the President. That in turn points to an attempt to work with the conservative "opposition within", including Larijani, in the battle on the budget and economic legislation.

4. But it's not just economics. There are a series of unresolved issues that the Parliament could take further, notably the investigation of the Government's post-election abuses.

Playtime is over.

Iran Document: Rafsanjani Meets the Reformists

From the reformist Parleman News, translated by Khordaad 88:

In continuing their New Year visits, the delegates of the coalition of reformist parties, the Imam Khomeini Line, went to see Hashemi Rafsanjani today.

Mohammad Reza Tabesh [MP from the city of Ardakan, a nephew of Mohammad Khatami , and seated to the left of Rafsanjani] said, “Although right now different issues are being discussed in the country, especially the the subsidies bill and the economic situation, we must not forget that these issues are secondary and the primary issue at hand is the stability and security of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

He continued, “We must not see further distancing of the ruling establishment and the people. And we hope that the ruling establishment will use wisdom and foresight to fill the distances [that have been created].”



Referring to Ayatollah Khomeini’s statement that “Parliament must be at the forefront” Tabesh said, “today, I think there is an absolute need for parliament to be at the head of the country’s affairs.”

It was then Hashemi Rafsanjani’s turn to put forth his views. “The disagreements that have been created in the current circumstance, must be rectified. This is only possible with the Leader at the forefront. All other forces must move in accordance with the pivotal role of the leader.”

Hashemi Rafsanjani referred to the different needs of Iran’s young population and said, “We must meet the youth’s cultural and social needs with appropriate planning. At the same time, we must act in a way such that the younger generations know of the value and worth of previous achievements. We must not talk in a way which degrades past achievements.”

He too referred to Ayatollah Khomeini’s statements about Parliament being at forefront of the country’s affairs and recalled memories of the formation of the first Parliament [after the Revolution].

The head of the Assembly of Experts continued, “when the Imam [Khomeini] said that Parliament must be at the forefront, this wasn’t a tactical or political statement, it was a foundational statement [which defined the basis of the Islamic Republic]. Because Parliament is the symbol of the people’s will and the foundation of the rule of the people and the Imam emphasized that democracy must continue through Parliament.”

Rafsanjani continued, “The Imam believed that Parliament should be at the helm, and that saving the revolution would only be possible through valuing parliament. And in the same spirit, so through [valuing] the Imam, Leader, and the Constitution. Parliament is a powerful body which has been able to bring many of the country’s laws to a conclusion.”

He referred to the negligence towards subsidies reform in the Fourth Development Plan and called this reform a very important task that would benefit the country if carried out properly. “Surgically removing subsidies will certainly have consequences, and the greater the amount [of cuts], the bigger the consequences and the shock. Carrying out this law requires a great deal of empathy, and correct management. It must not be carried out in a way to cause the discontent of the people.”

“Saving the Islamic Republic is of great importance, and in the new year, we need to create trust in the country’s political sphere.” He emphasized, “I am gravely worried to see that those who greatly care for the system are distanced [from the system]. Considering the situation in neighboring countries, if we are united, we can create an island of stability for the entire region.”

The Latest from Iran (5 April): Repression

2230 GMT: To close this evening, a photograph of reformist leader Feizollah Arab Sorkhi, temporarily released from prison today, with his family (inset).

2215 GMT: Mousavi's Statement. Back from an evening break to find a summary of Mir Hossein Mousavi's discussion with reformist members of Parliament. We'll have an analysis in the morning but here is the substance....

Mousavi advised Iranian authorities to return to models set up by Ayatollah Khomeini and base policies on “collective wisdom” to remedy the post-election crisis. Had that wisdom prevailed earlier, “we would not have witnessed such bitter incidents.”

Mousavi, as he has done before, criticised both Iranian state media and foreign media. Iran's national broadcaster was “destroying the doctrines of the Imam (Khomeini)”: “In my opinion Seda va Sima [Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting] and the foreign media have been acting like the two edges of a pair of scissors in distorting the luminous face of the Imam.”

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The Latest from Iran (4 April): Renewal

Mousavi also invoked Khomeini to claim the "ability of the country to pass through the crises of the time” was through direct connection of the people with the regime, the government, and the leadership. In Khomeini's time, decisions were made through “rational discussions” and the Imam “provided a basis for the presence of different factions and opinions without barring anyone’s presence”.


1745 GMT: Spin of the Day. Press TV rewrites the critical letter of Ali Larijani (see 1615 GMT) to the President:

"As the Ahmadinejad government and Parliament move to iron out the details of the subsidy reform bill, Speaker Ali Larijani said Monday lawmakers would do their utmost to cooperate with the president, asking him to do the same."

1740 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Kalemeh reports that the release from detention of senior reformist Feizollah Arab-Sorkhi (see 1340 GMT) is for only five days and comes with a bail of $1 million.

1615 GMT: Larijani Responds to Ahmadinejad. We noted earlier today that the President had made an appeal, in a letter to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, for revision of the legislation on subsidy reform and spending.

Larijani has now replied sharply. In his letter, he defends the approach of the Majlis and criticises Ahmadinejad's speeches and request for a public referendum. He accuses the President of intervention and interference in the Majlis' affairs.

Larijani aligns himself with the Supreme Leader's recent advice for more co-operation between the Majlis and the Government. However, he asks Ahmadinejad to answer two questions:

Firstly, what is the Government forecast for the rate of inflation in each of the two scenarios of an extra $20 billion spending (The Parliament-approved bill) and an extra $40 billion"(Ahmadinejad's demand)?

Secondly, what would be the Government's estimate of economic growth in each of the scenarios?

1600 GMT: Nowruz Snub for Ahmadinejad? According to Khabar Online, only one-third of the Majlis' members attended the Norouz meeting held with the President.

Ali Larijani (head of Parliament), Mohammad Hassan Abutorabi Fard (First Deputy Speaker) , Mohammad Reza Bahonar (Second Deputy Speaker), Ahmad Tavakoli (Director of Majlis Research Center), Elyas Naderi, and a number of other well-known MPs are amongst those who did not attend the meeting.

1340 GMT: Arab-Sorkhi Released. EA has learned from a reliable source that Feizollah Arab-Sorkhi, the leading member of the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party detained since last summer, has come out of Evin Prison.

1320 GMT: Mahmoud's Nuclear. Oh, good, this should lead to a lot of heated press speculation. The head of Iran's atomic energy programme, Ali Akbar Salehi, has foreshadowed Iran's revelation of a "series of scientific achievements" on National Nuclear Technology Day: "The President [Mahmoud Ahmadinejad] will have good news for the nation on Friday."

1245 GMT: Economy Watch. Kalemeh that 150 workers of a textile factory in Ardebil province in northwestern Iran gathered in front of the governor's office of the governor to protest unpaid wages for the last seven months.

The demonstration is politically significant because the factory was launched as part of the Ahmadinejad economy agenda in his re-election campaign. It is reported that the factory has cut its workforce by 85%.

1240 GMT: So Much for Development. Mizan Khabar reports that the Industrial Development and Renovation Organisation has prohibited the use of laptops, external drives, and other hardware by its managers on their foreign trips.

1235 GMT: Nuke Chatter. The Iranian Foreign Ministry has repeated its current line, without any sign of compromise, "Iran is still ready to negotiate a solution to its nuclear stand-off with the West, but only on the condition that foreign powers agree to a fuel swap on Iranian territory. "

1140 GMT: President's Subsidy Appeal. The Iranian Labor News Agency reports another intervention from President Ahmadinejad on the issue of subsidy reform and spending. He has written Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani to claim problems in the implementation of the Parliament-approved proposal and to call on the Majlis to help the Government.

1130 GMT: The Big Repression Question. An EA correspondent gets to the politics of the recent nes of detentions, in particular the contest with former President Hashemi Rafsanjani:

The next big question is whether all the high-profile political prisoners will go back to Evin, given that they were let out for the Nowrouz holidays and we are way past the end of them. In the case of Marashi, Rafsanjani's close associate, it seems that his period of liberty has come to an end.

Hassan Lahuti, Faezeh Hashemi's son and Rafsanjani's grandson, will have to face court proceedings and will therefore be barred from returning to London. The court proceedings of Rafsanjani's children, Mehdi and Faezeh Hashemi, are also going to happen within the near future, according to Rah-e-Sabz.

1035 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The authorities have not only put Hossein Marashi, ally of Hashemi Rafsanjani and a former Vice President, in jail; it appears they have also taken his blog off-line. A cached copy of Marashi's last entry, written on Sunday just before he was returned to prison, seems to be available.

(An EA correspondent reports that he can access Marashi's latest post, but I am still having no luck. In it, Marashi confirms his return to jail and says that he does not see the new period as that of a prisoner of the Islamic Republic but rather as a new duty and experience.)

1030 GMT: Economy Watch. The Central Bank of Iran claims that the annual inflation rate has declined sharply to 10.8% for the year ending 20 March 2010. This compares to 25.4% for the previous 12 months.

0900 GMT: One to Watch. Parleman News reports that delegates of the coalition of reformist parties, the Imam Khomeini Line, are in meetings with Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, Hashemi Rafsanjani, and Mohammad Khatami. Details are promised soon.

0830 GMT: Journalist and filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad, the imprisoned journalist and filmmaker, will appear in court today, offering his family the first chance to see him during his 107-day detention. Nourizad was reportedly not allowed to make a phone call for more than three months because of his refusal to accept interrogators’ demands and conditions. In the only call allowed to his famtily, he assured, “I am standing firm with an iron will.”

0545 GMT: One of the striking features of the debate over Iran's legal and political situation on Race for Iran, the blog of Flynt and Hillary Leverett, is the near-total refusal of regime and Ahmadinejad advocates --- including the Leveretts --- to discuss or even acknowledge the Government's detention and treatment of opponents. (That is a major reason why they focus on the question of the vote count in the Presidential election; it allows them to shut away the less savoury developments of the next 9 1/2 months.)

Occasionally, there will be a repetition of the regime line that the abuses at Kahrizak Prison, including the three deaths, were recognised by the Supreme Leader, but this is followed by the implication that this resolved any difficulties.

So this morning we begin with more news of political prisoners. Yesterday, we reported from an absolutely reliable source on the poor health of detained journalist Emad Baghi and the harassment of his family. In a few minutes, we'll post a disturbing message from the wife of imprisoned film director Jafar Panahi on concerns for his well-being.

In an audio interview with the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, the son of journalist Isa Saharkhiz says his father’s condition has deteriorated since a hunger strike in March. Mehdi Saharkhiz said that his father has lost 20 kilogrammes (45 pounds) over the past few months and that solitary confinement and the harsh prison environment have threatened his health.

Pedestrian reports on a bit of good news with the release of student Sourena Hashemi after more than three months but adds this context: there is no word of the fate of his friend Alireza Firouzi, who was detained at the same time.

One of the reasons for Hashemi's arrest was his appearance in a campaign video for Mehdi Karroubi. All the students involved were expelled or suspended from their universities.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8M-Q_gyPkw0&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

Of course, these are events which are not highlighted by the Iranian state. Yesterday, for example,there was a focus on the declaration of Iran's top nuclear negotiatior, Saeed Jalili, after his trip to Beijing that there were increasingly close relations between Iran and China. (More importantly, no word from Jalili about the substance of the negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme and threatened international sanctions.) Look also for big play of the story that China and India will attend Tehran's conference on nuclear disarmament on 17-18 April.

And many in the Western media can be distracted. A lot of the US press corps is being taken along with the book promotion of a "former Revolutionary Guard turned CIA agent", Reza Kahlili (a pseudonym), a story which could be true but is more than a decade old. Still, that doesn't stand in the way of headlines for Kahlili's headline assertion, "Iran will be a nuclear-armed state in the very near future....The only way to stop that from happening may be to attack Iran now, before it gets a nuclear weapon."

Top prize for scary distraction, however, goes to the  Financial Times which, with almost no support, announces, "US Fears Iran Could Use Powerboat as a Weapon."

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2225 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Javad Sharafkhani, the spokesperson for Mir-Hossein Mousavi’s election campaign in Ilam province in western Iran, has been arrested.

2220 GMT: We'll Get You (Even If You're Outside Iran). Minister of Justice Morteza Bakhtiari has announced that a special prosecutorial branch will be established shortly to deal with Iranians residing abroad.

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The Latest from Iran (3 April): Celebration

2215 GMT: Economy Watch. Mehdi Aqdaie, the deputy director of Iran's Privatisation Organization, has said that Iran hopes to raise about $12.5 billion by privatising more than 500 state firms during the 2010-11 year, including two refineries and two car makers.


1835 GMT: Propaganda Watch. Press TV --- bless 'em --- get it right this time. A day after headlining the Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's statement with the prospect of nuclear annihilation, they correctly frame today's Mottaki declaration, which says nothing new: "Mottaki Calls For Global Nuclear Disarmament".

1445 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Radio Farda reports that Hossein Marashi,  a close political ally of Hashemi Rafsanjani and a cousin of Rafsanjani's wife, has been sent to jail again. Marashi, who has been given a one-year sentence, was detained last month but freed after a few days.

1420 GMT: Bayat-Zanjani and the Political Prisoners. Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, meeting the families of political prisoners, has said:

I am shocked that [our leaders] don’t learn from the fate of the rulers that came to power and fell throughout history? Why should one ignore the lessons learned from the past and commit the same wrong actions against the best of the people? Know this that the struggle to stay in power by any means possible requires confrontations such as what is being done against you. You are oppressed and the prayers of the oppressed will be answered.

1405 GMT: More Subsidy Fun. The Iranian Parliament has reconvened after the New Year break, and already battle has been joined over the President's insistence that he get more revenues from subsidy cuts.

Speaker Ali Larijani, Speaker of the Parliament announced that discussions have been "finalised", although the Parliament will “collaborate closely with the Government giving close attention to its views and reasoning.”

Defying Larijani, however, a group of MPs announced that they have prepared a new proposal for allocation of $35 billion from cuts instead of the already approved $20 billion. Ruhollah Hossenian, a fervent Ahmadinejad supporter, said that the proposal  has already been signed by 100 legislators.

1320 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist and human rights activist Abolfazl Abedini has been sentenced to 11 years in prison.

There are concerns over the poor health of Farid Taheri, a member of the Freedom Movement of Iran detained on 27 January and held in Section 350 of Evin Prison.

The status of Ehsan Mohrabi of Farhikhtegan newspaper is unknown.

Jahangir Abdollahi, a Masters student in political science at Tehran University, is under pressure in Evin Prison to confess.

1045 GMT: We have posted absolutely reliable, disturbing information on the poor health of detained journalist Emaduddin Baghi and the harassment of his family.

1040 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. A new Rah-e-Sabz documentary highlights the role of Hashemi Rafsanjani in post-election events and attempts by the regime to limit his public intervention.

0830 GMT. And More Subsidy Clashes. Gholam-Reza Mesbahi-Moghaddam of Parliament's  Economic Committee has said that the Ahmadinejad Government is seeking to delay the implementation of the subsidy reform plan. Parliament only gave the President $20 billion of the extra $40 billion in revenues he was seeking from subsidy cuts.

0825 GMT: Oil Crunch. Could disinvestment in Iran's oil production (see 0615 GMT) become a crisis? Consider the half-empty, half-full spin of the Government.

Iran's Oil Minister Masoud Mirzakemi says the country needs $200 billion in investment in the oil sector. However, the head of Iran's Committee for Transportation and Fuel Management insists the country is capable of becoming self-sufficient in gasoline production this year.

0815 GMT: Press TV Funnies. Yesterday, the Iranian media outlet featured a headline which indicated Iran's Foreign Minister was supported nuclear annihilation (see our 0730 GMT update on Saturday). We are encouraged that Press TV staff are reading Enduring America since, soon after we noted this, the headline was changed to "FM: Iran Strongly Supports Elimination of Nukes".

Today, bless 'em, Press TV is chronologically confused over Iran's promotion of a nuclear-free world:

Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast says Tehran's international conference on nuclear disarmament has been widely welcomed.

According to Mehmanparast, the conference dubbed "Nuclear energy for all, nuclear weapons for none,” will be held in Tehran on March 17th and 18th.

0715 GMT: Photo of Day (see inset). Behzad Nabavi, the prominent reformist sentenced to five years in prison, and his wife enjoy the last days of his temporary release.

0713 GMT: Movies and Rights. Activist Shadi Sadr has received Amnesty International's  "Golden Butterfly" award for appearance in film Women in Shroud. Sadr writes, "I believe [this] is for all activists of the “Stop Stoning Forever Campaign” –-- both those who appeared in the documentary film...and those who didn’t."

Bahman Ghobadi, the director of the drama-"documentary" No One Knows About Persian Cats, received two awards from the international film festival in the Netherlands.

0710 GMT: Renewal. The cultural newspaper Farhang-e-Ashti has reappeared after its suspension and the arrest of a number of its journalists.

0705 GMT:  InsideIRAN offers an overview of the emergence of the women's movement:

It is certainly too soon to draw conclusions or write endings for a fragile movement that has been under increasing pressure, but just like other aspects of the green movement, it is the outreach of the women’s movement within society that gives it strength and prominence. Despite the heavy crackdown on some of its most notable leaders, as long as fourteen-year-old girls across Iran are engaging in conversation, it will be an ongoing struggle and a voice that cannot be silenced.

0650 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Green Voice of Freedom publishes the names and sentences of 26 "lesser-known" detainees in Section 350 of Evin Prison.



Kalemeh warns of the declining health of journalist Mohammad Nourizad. Arrested on 20 December, Nourizad suffers from a heart problem and diabetes.

Nourizad wrote for the pro-government Kayhan but became a vocal critic of the regime after the 12 June election.

Baha’i photographer and musician Artin Ghazanfari has been released on $50,000 bail.

0640 GMT: Interviewed by Rah-e-Sabz, Farrokh Negahdar of the socialist Organization of Iranian People's Fedayyin supports non-violent protests, with constant pressure for change of laws and expansion of the popular base, especially amongst workers.

0615 GMT: A Happy Easter Day to all those celebrating the occasion.

More on yesterday's visits by hundreds of reformists to former President Mohammad Khatami. Khabar Online --- far from a reformist publication --- offers two articles, providing a list of visitors and observing that visits continued even after the noon prayer. Indeed, not all those stopping by were reformists; several visitors came in Government cars, indicating they are currently serving in the Ahmadinejad administration.

Mohammad Javad Haghshenas, the publisher of Mehdi Karroubi's now-banned newspaper Etemade Melli, has said that reformists should seek an understanding with "hardliners", while expanding their popular base of support.

The prominent academic Sadegh Zibakalam has evaluated that further sanctions against Iran are inevitable; China can lessen but not prevent them.

On the economic front, in a sign that company disinvestment from Iran is having an effect, Hamid Hosseini of the Chamber of Commerce complains about insufficient participation of the private sector in the oil industry.