The Latest from Iran (18 June): Hardliners Criticise Ahmadinejad

1510 GMT: Twitter and Civil Rights. We have posted a response to the latest attempt to set straight the relationship between social media and the post-election political situation in Iran.

1430 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Ebrahim Rashidi, who disappeared on Monday, has reportedly called his family from Ardebil's intelligence detention centre.

NEW Iran Request: Nonsense about “Twitter Revolution”. Please Stop.
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Iran Snapshot: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Master of Irony
Iran Overview: Striking Poses from Sanctions to Cyber-War to “Terrorism”
Latest from Iran (17 June): Clearing Away the Smoke

Journalist Hassan Etemadi has been given a two-year sentence, and journalist Shahin Zeynali has been handed a term of two years and 91 days.

The former mayor of Ghasr-e Shirin, Ghodrat Mohammadi, has been detained and transferred to a centre in Kermanshah. No reason for his arrest has been given.

1330 GMT: Through the Looking Glass on the Hijab. Reviewing today's Tehran Friday Prayer by Ayatollah Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council, I think we are now caught up in a contortion of politics. Iran has suddenly become a place where defenders of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad praise him for "a relatively liberal government approach" and turn their fire upon the "hardliners", rather than the opposition.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_tZ2a0_3sNw&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

For the headline from Jannati's speech today, in contrast to his previous appearances, is not the threat of heavy punishment upon the opposition but his criticism of Ahmadinejad for raising the "cumbersome" issue of the "morality police" and their efforts to enforce "good behaviour" such as the wearing of the hijab.

Linking those who acted or dressed inappropriately to "drug traffickers" and "terrorists", Jannati said that women who defied the rules on proper clothing were "worse than poison". No one (he means you, Mahmoud) had "the right to tie the hands" of those enforcing the law.

1005 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Hijab Problem. It seems the President has got himself in a political tangle over his complaint about "morality police" cracking down on supposed social transgressions, including "bad hijab".

The Governor of Tehran, Morteza Tamaddon, has insisted that Ahmadinejad's directives are the basis for his officials' actions.

High-profile member of Parlaiment Ali Motahari has declared that the President has been adversely influenced by his chief aide, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

Ayatollah Alamalhoda, Mashhad's Friday Prayer leader, has asserted, "Unfortunately Ahmadinejad does not give the right attention to implementing religious rules."

Member of Parliament Mohammad Taghi Rahbar says he is ready to discuss the issue with Ahamadinejad on television.

0950 GMT: Today's Khabar Kick on the Government's Shins. Khabar Online, linked to Ali Larijani, has suggested that Vice President Mohammad Reza Mirtajoddini might have to resign because he wants to complete a Ph.D. dissertation.

The website, as reported by Peyke Iran, also points to 11 "suspicious" comments by the President in the last 76 days.

0945 GMT: Take Your Resolution and Stick It. Iran's National Security Council has issued a strongly-worded denunciation of the UN Security Council sanctions resolution on Tehran's nuclear programme:

Contrary to all expectations, the resolution has focused on Iran's nuclear program, without so much as a word about the Israeli regime's criminal activities and its attack on the Freedom Flotilla convoy carrying humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip only 10 days ago.

Also, the resolution brazenly ignores the 11 proposals put forward by Iran during Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference, which have been welcomed by world countries.

The council takes issue with the adoption of the resolution, particularly since it came despite constructive cooperation and the release of a new report by the International Atomic Energy Agency confirming the non-diversion of Iran's nuclear material for the 22nd consecutive time....

"This clearly shows that Washington's commitment to Israeli security will never allow UN Security Council to fulfill its obligations with regards to securing the safety and the rights of different nations....

The Islamic Republic of Iran will respond fittingly to any attempt to violate the legal and legitimate rights of the Iranian nation," the statement added.

0845 GMT: We have posted an analysis by Eldar Mamedov, "Iran: How Europe Can Help".

0840 GMT: Economy Watch. Ayatollah Mousavi Ardebili has complained that people are still not informed about the Government's subsidy reduction plan.

0805 GMT: A Boast (and an Admission?). Tehran police chief Esmail Ahmadi Moghaddam, trying to wash away criticism of last year's attack on Tehran University's dormitories, has said, "We were prepared for the elections one week in advance." The dorm incidents were predictable because Communists and neo-Marxists following Mehdi Karroubi had come onto the streets.

Not sure if Ahmadi-Moghaddam realises this, but his statement gives indirect support to allegations of a manipulated election --- the security forces were preparing for violence because they knew in advance that there might be anger over an "adjusted" vote. (More on this on Saturday....)

Meanwhile, member of Parliament Elyas Naderan has kept up his pressure on the Government, saying that the Majlis never completed a full report --- despite its promises --- on the dormitory attacks: "Only parts of it exist and are in our minds."

0800 GMT: The Attack on the Clerics. Some more pressure on the regime: Ayatollah Abdolnabi Namazi, the Friday Prayer leader of Kashan, has said, "If attacks on marja in Qom become normal, the future is not predictable."  Hojatolelsam Mehdi Tabatabai asserts, "God will not forgive those who insulted the 14 Khordad [4 June] ceremony."

0645 GMT: The Attack on the Clerics --- An Apology? Hmm, wondering if this might be an important signal....

In a wide-ranging interview on Parleman News, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani makes the statement that "whoever does not respect the marja (senior clerics)... shows his worthlessness". Larijani asserts that the marja "are the pillars of nezam", the Iranian system, and "the Supreme Leader up to the chiefs of Iran's forces see them as such".

An EA correspondent gets to the point with the question, "Is this an indirect apology from Ayatollah Khamenei?"

0640 GMT: The Economic Squeeze. Reuters publishes a summary of foreign companies who have pulled back from operations inside Iran and those who continue to do business.

0550 GMT: A Victory in Britain. It is reported that actress and lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender rights activist Kiana Firouz has been granted "leave to remain"' in the UK, removing the threat of deportation to Iran.

Firouz had been refused asylum on two previous occasions, prompting a campaign to prevent her return to Tehran.

0535 GMT: The Attack on the Clerics. It is reported that the website of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has been filtered.

Kalemeh publishes a letter from Ahmad Montazeri, the son of the Grand Ayatollah, to senior clerics in Qom. Montazeri describes Sunday's attack on the Grand Ayatollah's home and offices and asks for a denunciation of the assault.

0515 GMT: Today's white noise starts out of Washington rather than Tehran, as the Obama Administration --- trying to hold back the tide of Congressional action on Iran --- plays up rhetorically to the legislators.

Speaking at a hearing on Thursday, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates gave the rationale for the adjusted approach of the White House to US missile defence:

One of the elements of the intelligence that contributed to the decision on the phased adaptive array (approach) was the realization that if Iran were actually to launch a missile attack on Europe, it wouldn't be just one or two missiles, or a handful.

"It would more likely be a salvo kind of attack, where you would be dealing potentially with scores or even hundreds of missiles.

An editorial aside:I wonder if and when the Administration will ever realise that this appeasement --- not of Iran but of Congress --- will never free up its approach towards Tehran but will limit and even undermine any hope of crafting a thoughtful policy towards the Iranian situation.

Meanwhile, getting back to significant developments, we catch up with this week's potentially important analysis by reformist Mostafa Tajzadeh. A Deputy Interior Minister in the Khatami Government and post-election detainee, Tajzadeh has published a lengthy consideration of today's Iran through a review of the past, apologising for the reformists' role in the detention and execution of political prisoners in the 1980s.

We've posted extracts from the Tajzadeh analysis, accompanied by interpretation for Muhammad Sahimi of Tehran Bureau.

The Latest from Iran (15 June): Another Anniversary

1850 GMT: Claimed video of today's gathering at Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery, apparently at the grave of Sohrab Arabi:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gikWMCaTbzE[/youtube]

NEW Iran’s Green Communications: Beyond Twitter to “Small Media” (Enayat)
NEW Iran Analysis: Missing the Important Story?
Iran: The Attack on Montazeri, Sane’i, Karroubi
Iran Analysis: The Regime’s Next Push Against “Nothing Special”
The Latest from Iran (14 June): The 2nd Year Is Underway….

1730 GMT: The Cemetery Protest. Reports coming in that at least eight people, six of them women, have been arrested in Beheshte-Zahra. One woman was detained as she talk to the mother of the slain protester Sohrab Arabi.

1725 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. HRANA reports that Sadra Aghassi and Naem Ahmadi of Tabriz University's Islamic Student Association were arrested on 14 June, 2010.

Allameh Tabatabei University student Koroush Jannati was arrested on 12 June by intelligence agents after reporting to the university’s security office.

1715 GMT: The Mousavi Charter. The Los Angeles Times has an interesting reading of today's declaration by Mir Hossein Mousavi of objectives and strategies for the Green Movement.

The website notes that most of Mousavi's statement points to reform within the Iranian system with statements such as....

The Green Movement reaffirms its commitment to human, moral, religious and Iranian principles and values and feels obliged to refine and reform the behaviors of the Islamic Republic of Iran....The Green Movement is in continuation of Iranian people's efforts to attain freedom and social justice and national sovereignty...These objectives had already been pursued in the Constitutional Revolution, Oil Nationalization Movement [of 1951] and the [1979] Islamic Revolution.”

However, the Times notes one passage in the PDF version of the statement, but omitted from the version on Mousavi's website Kalemeh, that points to a separation of state and religion: "Maintaining the independence of religious and clerical bodies from the regime is the only option to preserve the exalted status of religion in the Iranian society and it will be one of the main principles hitting high on the agenda of the Green Movement.

1703 GMT: Today's Demonstrations. Dissected News reports from a source (see comments below) that about 200 family members of "Detainees of 12 June" gathered in front of Evin Prison, demanding the freedom of their relatives. The gathering lasted until dark.

Activists are reporting, and opposition websites are carrying the story, that about 300 people have gathered in Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery to pay their respects to those slain in post-election clashes, including Sohrab Arabi and Ramin Ramezani. Two people who were taping the ceremony have reportedly been arrested, and security presence is high.

1700 GMT: Khordaad 88 have posted an English translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's Monday statement, which hailed the Iranian people's fortitude over 22 Khordaad (12 June) and condemned the weekend attacks on clerics.

We are still awaiting a full translation of Mousavi's declaration today of a "charter" for the Green Movement.

1650 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Labour activist Behnam Ebrahimzadeh was arrested during Saturday's demonstrations. It is claimed that Ebrahimzadeh, beaten during his detention, suffered two broken ribs and multiple injuries.

1645 GMT: Propaganda of Day. This line, set out by Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi, may be just a bit too blatant to work.

Moslehi said Tuesday that several people linked to the "terrorist" People's Mujahedin of Iran had been arrested over plans to carry out bombings on 22 Khordaad (12 June), the anniversary of the election: “Two terrorist teams of hypocrites were identified and their key members were arrested” The alleged plan was to “carry out bombings in several Tehran squares" (i.e., the squares where the regime put out security forces on Saturday to deter gatherings).

Britain, France, and Sweden were the foreigners accused of “backing” the PMOI (Britain, of course, as the "Little Satan", France for its recent anti-Iran rhetoric, but why Sweden?). And one of the suspects had been arrested “in a student dormitory” (i.e., a student dormitory like the one that security forces attacked last 14-15 June, killing several people).

1625 GMT: Attack by the Clerics. Rooz Online in English has an overview, covering many of the events we have noted in the updates, of the criticism by clerics of the treatment of Seyed Hassan Khomeini at the 4 June ceremony for his grandfather.

1315 GMT: Mousavi's Charter. The first English-language report on Mir Hossein Mousavi's charter for the Green Movement, posted this morning (see 0940 GMT), comes from Agence France Presse. The article leads with Mousavi's call for "a fair trial of those who committed the election fraud, tortured and killed protesters" and mentions his demand for an "end to the involvement of police and military forces in politics, the independence of the judiciary, and prosecution of those in plainclothes".

1240 GMT: Concluding and Pronouncing. Yet another sweeping assessment of the Green Movement, this time from Karim Sadjadpour.

Most of Sadjadpour's piece consists of recommendations such as "Go Beyond Street Protests", for example, with strikes, "Organize Abroad", and "Reach Out to 'Ali The Plumber'" --- and he does conclude with hope, "The path to democracy is both delicate and daunting, and not guaranteed. A pessimist might argue, however, that a far more daunting task will be for the Islamic Republic to indefinitely sustain a politically repressive, socially restrictive, economically floundering theocracy in the 21st century."

Still, it's the opening of the piece, issued as truth even before Saturday had concluded, that sets the tone and catches the eye: "The anniversary of Iranʼs tainted presidential elections came and went without much sign of life from the opposition Green Movement. Aside from scattered protests, activists were understandably cowed by governmental intimidation and heeded the advice of opposition elders to preserve their powder for future battles."

1115 GMT: Beyond Facebook. Amidst the current discussion on new and social media and the Green Movement, an interesting contribution by Mohammad Sadeghi, the organiser of the Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard Supporters' Networks on Facebook: "The Green Movement is crafting a new and nonviolent political discourse that holds tremendous repercussions for a region in which the vast majority of civil actors are anything but peaceful. This movement is the culmination of more than 100 years of struggle by the Iranian people to secure their basic rights and liberties. Let's use this opportunity to remind ordinary Iranians of the amazing and very real victories they have already won, and not lecture them about their inefficacy and inefficiency, which is wholly imagined and miscalculated."

0940 GMT: A Charter for the Greens. It was promised, and now it's published: Kalemeh has posted Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement of objectives and strategies for the Green Movement.

Inconveniently, I have to go to an academic meeting, so I'll hand over to readers for perusal and comment.
0935 GMT: Beyond Green Tweets. We've published an analysis by Mahmood Enayat, "Iran's Green Communications: Beyond Twitter to 'Small Media'".

0930 GMT: Remembering. Rah-e-Sabz publishes names and details of 29 people killed on 25 Khordaad (15 June) last year.

0855 GMT: The Battle Within. Khabar Online --- have we mentioned that it is the website linked to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani? --- assesses that President Ahmadinejad's televised interview on the anniversary of his "victory" will upset "even the hardliners".

There's a bit of evidence for that assertion from Kayhan, which analyses that some people have "given wrong advice" to Ahmadinejad, "incompatible with his Islamic revolutionary thoughts". Looks like the President's criticism of "morality police" for pressuring people over "bad hijab" and other transgressions is not going down that well....

On another front, Hamid Reza Fouladgar, who oversees privatisation matters in Parliament, has commented about the dispute over implementation of Majlis laws by Ahmadinejad: "After 1 week of discussions, we were met with his silence, hopefully a good sign/"

0845 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The father of student activist Mohammad Reza Jalaiepour, of the Third Way Movement, has described his son's re-arrest: those carrying out the raid "told us Ahmadinejad will stay for a third term".

0840 GMT: The Attacks on the Clerics. Writing in Rah-e-Sabz, analyst Mohammad Javad Akbarein claims that there is a circle of regime politicians and clerics, including Hojatoleslam Ruhollah Hosseinian, formier Minister of Intelligence Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, Mohammad Golpayegani, and Hamid Rasaie, who have been organising attacks against "opposition" marja (senior clerics) and their followers for years.

0835 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? President Ahmadinejad is returning to Tehran after a visit to Assalouyeh in the Persian Gulf province of Bushehr to sign contracts to expand Phases 13, 14, 23, 22, 19 and 24 of the South Pars oil and gas fields.

The story behind Ahmadinejad's trip is that the contracts have been rewritten after the withdrawal of foreign companies, including Royal Dutch Shell and Spain's Repsol, from development. The work was re-allocated to Iranian firms, including some allegedly connected with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps.

0830 GMT: We've corrected an oversight by posting President Obama's official statement, emphasising human rights, on the anniversary of Iran's election.

0620 GMT: As Iran marks another anniversary --- this one of last year's mass protest against the outcome of the Presidential election --- we post an analysis considering latest developments and media coverage, "Missing the Important Story?"

Meanwhile....

Getting Around the Energy Squeeze?

Iranian state media is giving big play to the signature of a $7.5 billion "peace pipeline" deal between Iran and Pakistan for delivery of natural gas to Islamabad by 2014.

Which is fair enough, but still does not quite cope with the issue of if Tehran can maintain both its exports and imports of energy supplies over the next four years.

Shutting Down the News...And Literature

We have an update on Iran's filtering of news sites. Meanwhile, Rah-e-Sabz reports that there is widespread filtering of Persian literary blogs and the philosophical magazine Rokhdaad.

Rumour of Day

Tahavole Sabz claims that the word is being sent out to Iran's parents: come out and greet President Ahmadinejad or your kids won't be enrolled in school.

The Latest from Iran (11 June): Waiting, Watching, and Wondering

2140 GMT: Tonight's Allahu Akbars (God is Great):

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jvu1nHTROVw[/youtube]

NEW Latest Iran Video: The Mousavi-Karroubi Press Conference
NEW Iran Analysis: The Green Movement and The Lesson of 51 Pegasi B (Shahryar)
NEW Iran Reaction: Mysteries Beyond the Mousavi-Karroubi Statement
NEW Iran Feature: Why the Green Movement is Important (Dissected News)
Iran Urgent: Mousavi-Karroubi Statement on 22 Khordaad Protest (10 June)
Iran Interview: Ahmad Batebi “People’s Movement Will Stay Alive with Knowledge and Information”
Iran Document: Karroubi “In the End, the Wiser Ones Will Take Over Iran” (9 June)
The Latest from Iran (10 June): Mousavi-Karroubi Withdraw Request to March

2130 GMT: Karroubi Challenges Supreme Leader? Agence France Presse lifts one provocative sentence from the video of Mehdi Karroubi's joint press conference with Mir Hossein Mousavi, with Karroubi singling out Ayatollah Khamenei (without naming him) in the 2009 Presidential election: "There will be no results if he doesn't approve. Is this a republic?"

2120 GMT: Football, Rights, and Protest. A convergence today as activists used the opening of football's World Cup to put out a message of support for human rights and political prisoners such as human rights lawyer Mohammad Oliyaifard and Behrouz Tehrani.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6daHJnqQaI[/youtube]

2115 GMT: Rahnavard "We are Going Forward". Zahra Rahnavard, academic, activist, and wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, has given an interview to The Guardian of London. She summarises:

This movement started with the simple question: "Where is my vote?" But because the response was violence and bullets and repression from the ruling regime, the situation entered another phase which was completely unpredictable. People's demands have changed so now there are more fundamental questions and more intensive criticism of the regime. The Islamic republic has deviated from its path and goals.

We are still pursuing our ideals of 30 years ago. But the current government is the result of an electoral coup d'etat. The Green movement has not been defeated at all. It is going forward.

Rahnavard adds, "[The] movement is not looking for the support of foreign governments at all and wants to stands on its own."

2110 GMT: 22 Khordaad --- 83 Cities and Counting. That's the number of locations around the world for rallies on 12 June, the anniversary of the election. Full details and a map finder are available at 12June.org.

2100 GMT: The Mousavi-Karroubi Press Conference Emerges. Back from a break to find, thanks to an EA reader, the link to the video of the gathering with opposition websites held by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi at the start of this week. It is in Persian, of course, but given its potential importance, we have posted it in a separate entry.

1530 GMT: Tehran Friday Prayers Summary. "Substitute Friday Prayers leader" Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami (Substitute?! Was the first-choice religious striker injured? Or has former President Hashemi Rafsanjani begged off sick again?) lines up for his best shot at goal.

Unfortunately, it's a pretty tame effort: "The world should think of an independent organization and security council which would not be dominated by the imperial powers". The UN sanctions resolution on Iran's nuclear programme stinks. The US, which faces internal and external problems, will find this adds to "the crisis of disgrace".

Khatami, trying to match the record of Iran's best-known international (R Khomeini),  then asked the audience if they happened to notice that the US is a Great Satan.

The cleric did show a nice couple of nice touches with this query, made against the global run of play (see 1415 GMT): “Now judge for yourself: Is powerful Iran, which is present everywhere on earth, isolated, or it is you, who are alone, and your few puppet states?”

Then, however, it was back to another predictable passage of play: "savage attack" of the Zionist regime on the Freedom Flotilla, US kidnaps Iranian scientist Shahram Amiri by the US and Saudi Arabia, “I hope a freedom caravan with an aim of breaking the siege of Gaza will start moving and Iran will abide by its historical duty in the way.”

So a pretty tepid 0-0 draw. Then again, this was just the curtain-raiser for a more important game tomorrow.

1415 GMT: International Smackdown for Iran? If this story plays out as predicted here by Agence France Presse, this is a signficant blow, delivered by Moscow and Beijing amongst others, to the Iranian Government:

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), where Russia and China call the shots, gathered Friday to consider changes to its membership guidelines which could lead to further expansion for the bloc.

At its annual gathering in the Uzbek capital Tashkent, leaders including Russia's Dmitry Medvedev and China's Hu Jintao were expected to adopt new guidelines seen as potentially opening the door to SCO observer nations India and Pakistan.....

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the guidelines to be approved Friday would not allow countries under UN sanctions to obtain membership, a major blow to Iran who sorely needs international support.

Iran is currently an "observer" nation in the SCO.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said he had cancelled his appearance at the meeting, ostensibly his change of mind was a protest against Russian and Chinese support for UN sanctions. However, The Russian newspaper Kommersant, citing diplomatic sources, is claiming that Ahmadinejad had wanted an invitation to the event, but Russia, China, and Kazakhstan had "politely denied" it.

1330 GMT: Polite Intimidation. Rah-e-Sabz claims that Iranians are receiving the following text message from the Ministry of Intelligence: "Dear citizens, You have been deceived and foreign media to do their work. If you repeat this action, you will be punished under Islamic law."

1310 GMT: One Year On. CNN has a snapshot of the opposition, based on interviews with four Iranians, two inside the country and two now abroad. This comment from "Azadeh", a bank teller in Iran, stands out:

"There is fear. I can't say I'm not scared, but you still have to go out -- because that's what the government wants, for you to be afraid and not continue. But we have to."

1305 GMT: We welcome back Josh Shahryar as an EA correspondent with his analysis on the significance of the Green Movement.

1300 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Human rights activist and journalist Narges Mohammad has been arrested by security forces during a late-night raid on her home.

Mohammad is the Vice President of the Defenders of Human Rights Center and President of the executive committee of the National Peace Council.

0915 GMT: Spreading the Word. A new website, Access Now, has been launched, featuring a "Global Proxy Cloud" to help computer users get to the information they want.

0910 GMT: Looking Back. Tehran Bureau features the recollection of Farhod Family of a year ago, just before and after the Presidential election: "Tehran had done a complete 180 in less than 24 hours. A cheerful country had turned violent in disgust."

0905 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Islamic scholar Ahmad Ghabel has been released on bail of more than $500,000, almost six months after his arrest.

Ghabel, a student of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, was arrested on 20 December while travelling to Qom for Montazeri's funeral.

0900 GMT: 4 June Fall-Out. Another cleric denounces the uproar at last week's ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini and comments on the heckling of the Ayatollah's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini: Hojatoleslam Hossein Ebrahimi said the "events have caused sorrow for all".

0855 GMT: Larijani's Latest Move. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, manoeuvring for position against President Ahmadinejad as well as the "opposition", has pronounced, The Supreme Leader is there to show the right way. Those who don't understand must not be excluded."

An EA correspondent comments, "Those who don't understand? I still wonder whom Larijani means: clerics, Mousavi and Karroubi, Ahmadinejad...or all of them?"

0840 GMT: PsyWars. A sign of strength, a sign of worry, or just a big bluff?

General Hassan Firouzabadi, the head of Iran's armed forces, has announced that a Psychological Operations Command will be established for 12 June. At the same time, he announced that victory had already been achieved over the opposition: “The unity of the conspirators has been disrupted thanks to the events of the 4th and 5th June, and public alertness. [Mir Hossein] Mousavi has been trapped in cyberspace created by the US, Britain, the Zionist regime and counter-revolutionaries, is moving towards destruction. The reformist sheikh [a reference to Mehdi Karoubi] too has been isolated in the dreams of the green movement.”

The Command, it appears, is neceesary because, in Firouzabadi's words, “The Freedom Movement is still the leader of the US position and is the instigator of the conspiracy inside the country as it tries to perpetuate the situation while revolutionary students and politicians are aware of their ways. Moderate reformers are gradually moving towards the regime and the Imam’s line and their new policy is to work within the regime.”

0740 GMT: Crystal Balls. Lots of "One Year On" pieces today, many of them making sweeping and often weakly-supported claims --- The Opposition is Strong, The Opposition is Dead, the Regime is Weak, the Regime is Powerful.

The most curious article comes from The Washington Post, which manages to be both horribly deceptive and insightful in the space of a single article. The headline writers --- as they have done before --- distort Thomas Erdbrink's reporting, "A Year after Its Rise, Iranian Protest Movement Stymied and in Disarray".

In the final paragraphs, however, Erdbrink --- who continues to operate out of Tehran despite regime pressure --- slides in this important revelation:

"Because everybody is in charge, the movement can continue," said Ali Shakorirad, a former member of parliament and leading member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, which was recently declared illegal by the judiciary.

He said the opposition is playing a waiting game, exploiting the weaknesses of the government, which he asserted is less powerful than it appears. The opposition's inactivity, he said, has caused those advocating radical change to lose interest, which he considers a positive development.

"Ahmadinejad is making increasingly more blunders, so our first objective -- getting rid of him -- is looking more probable by the day," Shakorirad said. "When that is reached, the next step is free elections."

0730 GMT: Reading Mousavi-Karroubi. An EA correspondent checks in with a comment on the statement, "I think they had no other choice. People in Tehran told me they made the right decision because of the prospect of violence."

0720 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? President Ahmadinejad has had a look at the Shanghai Expo in China. Despite reports that he has cancelled an appearance at a Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting because of dissatisfaction at Chinese and Russian support of this week's UN resolution on sanctions, Ahmadinejad said, "The two great nations of Iran and China, who are the owners of the most ancient civilizations of human beings, can stay together to make this dream come true."

0655 GMT: Less than 24 hours before 22 Khordaad, the anniversary of the 2009 Presidential election, we offer two analyses: Dissected News posts a useful reminder to the media, "Why the Green Movement is Important", and Scott Lucas evaluates mysteries beyond yesterday's statement by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.

Meanwhile....

Ebadi's Message of Support

Nobel Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi has put out a video message for 22 Khordaad. An English version is promised soon.

Revelation or Disinformation?

The Guardian of London features a dramatic article, "Former Elite Officers Reveal Tensions in Iran Regime", based on interviews with four "former members of the Revolutionary Guard...who have fled Iran and are in hiding in Turkey and Thailand".

The article claims:

• Deep divisions within the Revolutionary Guard, the powerful military organisation at the heart of the Iranian state, which have widened since last year's repression of the so-called green opposition.

• Firsthand accounts of the measures taken to crush the popular protests that erupted in the wake of last June's presidential elections. The men interviewed describe the widespread use of rape and torture by the regime.

• A ruling elite so unsettled by the uprising that it had a plane on standby ready to fly the president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, to Syria at a moment's notice.

I'm refraining from any judgement at this point --- the allegations match up with Internet chatter that goes back to last autumn. I have no doubt, based on other information, about the second claim regarding abuse of detainees, but the first and third assertions circulated without any support.

The Challenge from Iran's Youth

The US Institute for Peace has released a report, "Iran's Youth: The Protests Are Not Over": "Iran has the most politically active youth among the 57 nations of the Islamic world. As the most restive segment of their society, Iranian youth also represent one of the greatest long-term threats to the current form of theocratic rule."

The Latest from Iran (10 June): Mousavi-Karroubi Withdraw Request to March

1950 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Iran Focus reports that activist Mehdi Farahi Shandiz was detained on Wednesday.

1900 GMT: Tonight's Rooftop "Allahu Akbar" (God is Great) and "Marg Bar Dictator" (Death to the Dictator) Chants:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqqqbdY0Yso[/youtube]

NEW Iran Urgent: Mousavi-Karroubi Statement on 22 Khordaad Protest (10 June)
NEW Iran Interview: Ahmad Batebi “People’s Movement Will Stay Alive with Knowledge and Information”
NEW Iran Document: Karroubi “In the End, the Wiser Ones Will Take Over Iran” (9 June)
Latest Iran Video: Obama Statement on Sanctions…and Rights (9 June)
Iran Analysis: What’s Most Important Today? (Hint: Not Sanctions)
Iran Analysis: 4 June “The Day the Regime Will Regret” (Verde)
The Latest from Iran (9 June): Paying Attention

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zj3IAX369J0&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

1450 GMT: We have posted the English text of the Mousavi-Karroubi statement.

Dissected News evaluates:

"One way to look at this move by Moussavi and Karroubi is that they did the only thing they could. Neither leader can risk being arrested and having no legitimate and legal means to pursue reform. As was alluded to in the official statement, if large numbers of protesters show up for a rally that has been called off, it will appear as though the Green Movement is larger than its public leadership (this is true, anyway). If few numbers show up, then the Green Movement will still be able to say that the absence of large numbers was due to the backing off of the leaders of the movement."

1355 GMT: 22 Khordaad. Agence France Presse have picked up on the Mousavi-Karroubi statement, "Iran opposition leaders call off demos for vote anniversary".

1340 GMT: It's Official: Green Movement Bigger Threat than Saddam. The head of the Revolutionary Guard, General Mohammad Ali Jafari has pronounced, "Although last year's sedition did not last more than around eight months, it was much more dangerous than the imposed war which Saddam began against us through the support of the international community."

Jafari continued, "Because of the grace of God and the prophet-like guidance of the supreme leader and people's vigilance, we put this bitter incident behind us and the enemies found out the revolution cannot be diverted through these methods."

1230 GMT: New Mousavi-Karroubi Statement. As we still await the final word from the Ministry of Interior on requests for permits to march on 12 June, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have issued another statement, via both Karrroubi's Saham News and Mousavi's Kalemeh. In view of the threat to people's safety, they are withdrawing their request to march; however, they note the turnout on 25 Khordaad (15 June) last year, which was also in an "undeclared" protest. They continue, "In the great nation of Iran, it is not possible to block people on the way they have chosen and their creative role in making this path will appear....It is simplistic to think you can suppress the opposition with lies, threats, and humiliation."

1000 GMT: 22 Khordaad MediaFail. Reuters puts in an early candidate for worst pre-12 June "analysis": "Iran's Reformers Discouraged a Year after Vote".

On the basis of interviews with four --- count 'em, four --- Iranians, the comment of a political scientist, and an absence of any consideration of the latest developments in the political situation, the article assures us, "A year after Iran's disputed presidential vote, hardliners are firmly back in charge of a country where economic challenges and the nuclear dispute with the West now loom larger than a once-vibrant reform movement."

0843 GMT: Labour Front. Peyke Iran claims Saeed Torabian, the spokesman for Tehran bus workers, has been assaulted at home and taken away by security forces.

0839 GMT: Blood Money Will Make It All Go Away. Fereshteh Ghazi, speaking with the families of those killed in the post-election crisis reports: "Rather than conducting investigations to identify those who ordered and carried out the murder of protesters, the Iranian government has been pressuring the families of murdered protesters to forego holding memorials for their loved ones. One family member was told that “because the murderer was not identified, the case has been sent to the implementation division for payment of blood money from the public budget.”

0835 GMT: The Detained Journalists. More information on the status of imprisoned reporters and editors: a new list from the Committee to Protect Journalists has 37 currently imprisoned, but Reporters and Human Rights Activists of Iran counts 47 in jail, e.g.. Sousan Mohammadkhani Ghiasvand from Kurdistan, who does not appear on the CPJ list.

0830 GMT: A Solution. Rah-e-Sabz posts a long analysis from the Council of National-Religious Activists and its suggestion of five ways out of the crisis: 1) a free and protected rally on 22 Khordaad/12 June; 2) release of political prisoners and an end to executions; 3) restoring the political freedoms laid down in Constitution to the Iranian people, especially freedom of assembly, speech, and media; 4) an end to restrictions on political parties, non-governmental organisations and human rights organisations; 5) correction of election laws and free elections under impartial supervision.

0820 GMT: Larijani v. Ahmadinejad. Despite the attempts by the Supreme Leader to referee the Parliament's dispute with the President, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani presses on. At a lecture, Larijani warned, "If legislative and judiciary branches become subordinated to executive branch, it might accelerate the process of following [the President's] plans. But it would lead to dictatorship." Larijani continued, playing up to Ayatollah Khamenei and putting down Ahmadinejad:

Centralization of the Supreme leader's power won't lead to corruption since the leader should possess special qualifications which are not taken into account when the parliament speaker and the president are elected. Therefore the executive branch must adhere to the laws defining its authority. The government is not allowed to interfere with the duties of the legislative branch and disagree what passed by the Majlis.

Khabar Online also features the statement of Larijani ally, MP Ahmad Tavakoli: "Although in observing the bills, the Majlis may not be flawless, the government is not authorized to disobey the laws ratified by the legislative branch. Even if the statesmen believe that a law can not be executed, they should formally request the Majlis to revoke that and help the lawmakers to ratify the bills with the least amount of mistakes."

0815 GMT: 4 June Follow-Up "The Shadow Man". Earlier this week, Mohammad Ali Ansari, the coordinator of the commemoration for Ayatollah Khomeini last Friday, wrote Seyed Hassan Khomeini about the disruption of the event with the heckling of Hassan Khomeini's speech. Ansari mentioned, amidst discussion of possible organisation of the sabotage, a "Commander Vahid".

Rooz Online does some investigating to find out who Commander Vahid is and how he might be connected to the Supreme Leader.

0733 GMT: 22 Khordaad. The number of cities around the world holding rallies on 12 June is now 79.

0723 GMT: Rafsanjani Trashes the Election (and Criticises the Supreme Leader)? Yesterday we passed on reports that the office of Hashemi Rafsanjani had put out a tough letter denouncing President Ahmadinejad's behaviour over the election and challenging Ayatollah Khamenei for remaining silent on the issue.

We've had a look at the letter on Rafsanjani's website and, despite the former President's normal caution, it seems quite challenging. Could it be that Rafsanjani, just before 22 Khordaad (12 June), is going to make a public stand against the President --- and ask the Supreme Leader to make a stand as well?

0720 GMT: Hanging Judges. Omid Memarian profiles "hardline" judges --- Abolghasem Salavati, Mohammad Moghiseh, and Pir-Abbasi --- of the Revolutionary Court.

0710 GMT: Winning With Information. We have posted an interview with activist Ahmad Batebi, "The People's Movement Will Stay Alive with Knowledge and Information".

0625 GMT: Larijani Strikes A Nuclear Pose. He may be at odds with President Ahmadinejad on political issues, but Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani is making sure he's alongside the Government in defiance of the latest UN sanctions on Iran's nuclear programme.

Larijani said at a press conference, "We are regretful that the US is playing a naive game in New York these days," adding that this game was being led by the "Zionist lobby".
0615 GMT: No More Nedas? Rumour of the day comes from The New York Times, citing a pro-Government website:

A factory in Iran has been closed down after trying to mass produce statuettes of people who were killed in the protests that followed last year’s disputed presidential election, among them, Neda Agha-Soltan....

The pro-government Aty News Web site, reported on Wednesday that the factory, located in the eastern province of Semnan, was shuttered after just one month, though officials denied the closure.

The Web site....also states that the factory’s 40 female employees were discovered working without hejabs...and that they were mixing freely with the male members of the staff.

0545 GMT: 22 Khordaad. Yet another invitation to show up on 12 June comes from the students of Azad University of Tehran.

0530 GMT: First, a reminder of Iran just over 48 hours before the anniversary of the elections --- last night's rooftop Allahu Akhbars (God is Great):

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B073FkNZdDQ&playnext_from=TL&videos=4udYKWS5xNc[/youtube]

We have also posted yet another interview by Mehdi Karroubi in the run-up to 12 June. He reviews the development of Iran from the Revolution to today and, despite much pessimism, asserts, "In The End, The Wiser Ones Will Take Over Iran".

Of course, the headline story in non-Iranian media is yesterday's UN Security Council resolution for a new set of sanctions on Tehran. Even that, however, could not completely escape the internal situation in Iran: we have posted the video of President Obama's comments, with his reference to the "repression" of the Iranian people, and a snap analysis in yesterday's updates.

Dave Siavashi of Iran News Now evaluates the developments and puts out this warning: "The sanctions lend an air of legitimacy to the regime’s claim that nefarious outside forces, or Doshman (the all encompassing enemy), as [Ayatollah] Khamenei likes to refer to them, have it in for Iran; thereby giving the hardcore Islamist radicals of the regime a pretext and excuse for continued harsh repression of the opposition."

The Latest from Iran (9 June): Paying Attention

2030 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that the head of Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign in Babolsar has been arrested.

2000 GMT: A Friendly Notice. To all journalists riding the two-dimensional bandwagon on Twitter & Iran, treating cliches like "Twitter Revolution" as if they were the core of meaningful analysis, I'm not going to respond for the moment --- this is a made-up dramatic revelation, which recurs every few months and does not get to the heart of what social media has meant in the post-election crisis. Best to let it serve as tomorrow's chip paper.

But if you keep it up, I may change my mind....

1900 GMT: Mahmoud Snaps Back. President Ahmadinejad, who has had post-election encounters with dust (read his "victory speech") and insects (see video), worked both into his response to the UN sanctions resolution: "These (U.N.) resolutions have no value...They are like a used handkerchief that should be thrown in the dust bin. Sanctions are falling on us from the left and the right. For us they are the same as pesky flies....We have patience and we will endure throughout all of this."

NEW Latest Iran Video: Obama Statement on Sanctions...and Rights (9 June)
NEW Iran Analysis: What’s Most Important Today? (Hint: Not Sanctions)
NEW Iran Analysis: 4 June “The Day the Regime Will Regret” (Verde)
Iran Election Anniversary Special: The Power of the “Gradual”
Iran Special Report:The Attack on Civil Society (Arseh Sevom)
The Latest from Iran (8 June): Tremors and Falsehoods

1855 GMT: Back to 22 Khordaad. BBC Persian reports on the increased security presence on the streets of Tehran on the eve of 12 June,the anniversary of the election.


1725 GMT: President Obama has just made a statement about Iran in the aftermath of the UN vote on sanctions. We've posted the video.

Here's the quick read: Obama proclaimed that the sanctions were the "most comprehensive" Iran has faced, said that the UN resolution sent an "unmistakeable message", and spent most of the rest of the time justifying the position on sanctions in connection with his policy of "engagement": "We recognize Iran's rights, but with those rights come responsibilities. Time and again the Iranian Government has failed to meet those responsibilities."

Then, in one of the eight minutes of the statement, having declared,"These sanctions are not directed at the Iranian people," Obama switched from nukes to rights. He noted this Saturday's anniversary of the election, "an event that should have been remembered for how the Iranian people participated with remarkable enthusiasm but will instead be remembered for how the Iranian Government brutally suppressed dissent and murdered the innocent, including a young woman [Neda Agha Soltan] left to die in the street".

It was a bit awkward for the President to link back to uranium and sanctions, and he did not help by throwing in the spectre of Tehran's War of Terror --- "Actions do have consequences. And today the Iranian Government will face some of those consequences. Because whether it is threatening the Nuclear Non-Proliferation regime or the rights of its own citizens or the stability of its own neighbors by supporting terrorism, the Iranian Government continues to demonstrate that its unjust actions are a threat to justice everywhere".

However, at least for one moment, "Iran" was seen in more than the one-dimensional image of a nuclear weapon.

1720 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani's office has released a letter which, in the eyes of Deutsche Welle, criticises the Supreme Leader's silence over President Ahmadinejad and implicitly acknowledges fraud in the 2009 election.

1620 GMT: Sanctions. The UN Security Council has voted 12-2, with 1 abstention, for new sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme.

The relatively limited measures include restrictions on transactions with Iranian banks, asset freezes on Iranian individuals and companies, and an expanded arms embargo on items such as attack helicopters and missiles.

Turkey and Brazil, who recently signed an agreement with Iran on procedure for talks over uranium enrichment, were the two countries who voted against the resolution. Lebanon abstained.

1605 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Al Arabiya has just published an interview from May with Mehdi Karroubi. Topics covered include the rise of the Green Movement, party politics, accusations of prison abuse and torture, Government mismanagement, and Ahmadinejad's foreign policy. Karroubi also offered this in anticipation of 22 Khordaad (12 June), the anniversary of the election:

We promise and give assurances that no incident will occur. I am certain that if a march is held, paramilitary forces will attempt to turn it violent, but our people are wise, and politically mature enough that even if certain individuals come chanting radical slogans, the people have the ability to control the scenario and confront them. However, if authorisation is not granted for demonstrations, we will then decide what to do; but it is currently not possible to say much.

1545 GMT: On the International Front (Mahmoud Stays Home). On Monday, Iranian state media were trumpeting that their internationally-esteemed President would be showing his strength, in the face of Western pressure, by going to the Shanghai Expo in China.

Today, Agence France Presse says that Ahmadinejad plans to stay away from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting to snub Russia and China for supporting the US-backed sanctions resolution in the United Nations.

1120 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Amnesty International has launched a new campaign, "One Year On: Stop Unfair Trials". Cases include journalists Abolfazl Abedini Nasr, Hengameh Shahidi, Emaduddin Baghi, Shiva Nazar Ahari and Ahmad Zeidabadi, student activists Majid Tavakoli and Mohammad Amin Valian, and Zia Nabavi of the Council to Defend the Right to Education.

1015 GMT: The Nuclear Discussions. A piece of news that slipped under the media radar....

The International Atomic Energy Agency has announced that it has received replies from France, Russia, and the US to the Iran-Brazil-Turkey declaration on procedure for uranium enrichment talks.

No details were given beyond the note, "Attached to each of the letters was an identical paper entitled ‘Concerns about the Joint Declaration Conveyed by Iran to the IAEA’."

That, however, indicates co-ordination between the three governments. And the timing of the IAEA's statement, together with the lack of substance, indicates that it is happy to let the news be overtaken by today's sanctions vote in the UN.

0955 GMT: Reflecting on The Year. Journalist Masih Alinejad has offered her recollections and analysis in an extended video interview with Voice of America Persian.

0935 GMT: A Signal for the Week? Hamshahri features the colourful cover identifying the bad guys in "Sedition '88".

0930 GMT: Intimidation of Kurdistan Businesses? Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that, following a general strike on 9 May to protest executions, members of bazaars across Kurdistan have been summoned and threatened by government authorities and the businesses of others have been sealed.

0800 GMT: What is the Green Movement? An interesting interview with Fatemeh Sadeghi, a former professor at Tehran University, who argues that the Green Movement is not the opposition of the "secular" against the "religious".

0750 GMT: The Post-Election Abuses. Abdul Ruholamini has resurfaced to declare that those responsible for the abuse and killing of detainees in Kahrizak Prison must "pay for their deeds".

Ruholamini, the campaign manager for Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, is the father of Mohsen Ruholamini, who died in Kahrizak last summer. The case was instrumental in bringing the abuses to light and pressing the Supreme Leader to close Kahrizak. Ruholamini had gone farther in public statements at the start of 2010, declaring that high-ranking officials must take responsibility for the crimes, but had been silent in recent months.

Ruholamini may have been prompted to his statement by the news that the trial of 12 people over the Kahrizak case has finished behind closed doors.

0745 GMT: The Events of 4 June. Another perspective, complementing that of EA's Mr Verde, on last Friday's developments at the ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini comes from Hamid Farokhnia in Tehran Bureau.

Tehran Bureau also features a review by Muhammad Sahimi, "The Green Movement at One Year".

0740 GMT: Parliament v. President (and Supreme Leader). It seems that Ayatollah Khamenei's intervention --- calling for Parliament-Ahmadinejad co-operation and threatening the Majlis with new "oversight" --- may not have been an overwhelming success.

Key MP Ahmad Tavakoli, an ally of Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, has commented in Khabar Online that the Constitution is written for people to cooperate, not to fight. So far, so good for the Supreme Leader.

But then Tavakoli re-asserts, "The Government has no right not to implement the laws from the Majlis."

0715 GMT: On a day when "Iran news", for most non-Iranian media, may be dominated by the passage of the US-led sanctions resolution in the UN Security Council, we set out priorities with two analyses: Scott Lucas declares, "What's Important Today? (Hint: Not Sanctions), and Mr Verde looks at "4 June: A Day the Regime Will Regret".

One US outlet shares our attention to the internal: Newsweek notes last Friday's events, with the shout-down of Seyed Hassan Khomeini, under the (over-blown) headline, "Iran's Hushed-Up Civil War":

For his part, Supreme Leader Khamenei did little damage control, even though he has worked hard to present a united front for Iran’s leadership, knowing that discord suggests vulnerability. He took the stage after Khomeini and asked the crowd to act in a more appropriate manner. But that was it. No defense of Khomeini and no rebuke to the crowd. With the anniversary of the contested election just days away now, Khamenei has been trying to manage a delicate balancing act between quieting and frightening the opposition—and sending mixed messages in the process.

In another warm-up for 12 June, the anniversary of the election, Zahra Rahnavard gives an interview to the Italian paper La Republicca. Beyond general criticism of the Government and the declaration, "I hope to shed the last drop of my blood in the cause of freedom and democracy," she focuses on key issues:

The demands of the women in Iran are twofold: 1) National demands such as freedom, democracy, the rule of the law, freedom of political prisoners, right to individual freedoms; 2) Elimination of discrimination and strengthening of cultural rights, women's rights and equal rights under the law.

....Democracy is not possible without women and without paying attention to the demands of women.