Iran: An Opposition Renewing, A Government in Trouble

Iran: Question for the Regime “What’s Your Next Punch?”
NEW Latest Iran Video: More from 13 Aban
Iran’s New 13 Aban: An Eyewitness Account “I Have Never Seen as Much Violence”
Iran: Josh Shahryar on the Significance of 13 Aban
The Latest from Iran (8 November): Challenge Renewing?

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Yesterday we began with two tasks: 1) to see if the regime was really in disarray over its response to the latest challenges of 13 Aban, and 2) to watch for signs of the Green opposition's next move after the marches, given 48 hours of near-silence. Well, we are getting a response to the second question.

Former President Mohammad Khatami resurfaced with a strong statement challenging the legitimacy of the Government and later met Mehdi Karroubi. Today Mir Hossein Mousavi has appeared for the first time since 13 Aban, visiting --- like Khatami did on Friday --- Karroubi advisor Morteza Alviri, who was recently released from detention. Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has been interviewed again, criticising detainee abuses and questioning the legal basis of confessions.

Early in the crisis, an EA reader suggested that the Green movement was operating tactically with Mousavi as the political leader, Khatami as the respected figure making criticisms of the Government, and Karroubi as the charismatic cleric who could mobilise the energy of the opposition. Given the difficulties with communication and organisation, as well as the ongoing debate over the next moves of the movement (again, see the excellent discussion amongst our readers), that depiction is probably an aspiration rather than a coordinated approach.

Yet I sense that, far from sapping the strength of the movement, 13 Aban has renewed it. Part of that strength comes from anger at the violence and detentions of Wednesday. But at least part of it is coming from the belief that defeat will not come from the Government's heavy fist. The discussion about "What is to Done?" is being fuelled, I think, by the perception of the opposition that its fate now lies in its own hands, rather than the actions of a Khamenei, an Ahmadinejad, or the Revolutionary Guard.

And that is where Saturday's answer to our first question enters. To be blunt, the President did not address the nation Saturday night. He had not spoken, as initially promised, on the evening of 13 Aban (remember, he decided not to compete with the under-17 World Cup match between Iran and Uruguay). Now, after 24 hours of build-up,  he was stepping away from the podium again, allegedly because of a trip today to Turkey.

But, while Ahmadinejad silenced himself, the disputes continued. The Government is now in an internal fight over not only the nuclear talks but its approach to foreign policy: will engagement with the US be sacrificed, as it appears key conservatives/principlists and possibly the Supreme Leader want, to re-establish the supposed strength of the regime? Parliament is still causing some trouble over the economic programme, and the first signs of the consequences of subsidy reform --- a rise in bread prices --- emerged Saturday. The Revolutionary Guard seems to be in a continued distraction in the aftermath of the Baluchestan bombing.

All of which led to a curiosity of mixed signals yesterday on how to meet the opposition challenge. Having pursued mass detention on Wednesday, the Government appeared to be backing away on Saturday. While prosecutors and police chiefs could not give accurate figures on the number of those arrested, all their public statements points to a softening of position, with the declaration of releases of most of those detained.

And last night, almost unnoticed, confirmation came that two leading reformists, Ali Tajernia and Ebrahim Amini, had been released after months in detention. That overshadowed any announcement of the trials that were supposedly taking place in the Revolutionary Court on Saturday.

I'm now looking for the vapour trails from the President's flight to Ankara. If I don't see them, watch for another update. One that (very cautiously) considers that the President may be in the greatest spot of bother he has encountered since the end of June.

The Latest from Iran (7 November): Regrouping

NEW Iran: Question for the Regime "What's Your Next Punch?"
NEW Latest Iran Video: More from 13 Aban
Iran’s New 13 Aban: An Eyewitness Account “I Have Never Seen as Much Violence”
Iran: Josh Shahryar on the Significance of 13 Aban
Iran Video: The Tribute to 13 Aban’s Protesters
The Latest from Iran (6 November): The Day After The Day After

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2240 GMT: Confirmation that Ebrahim Amini, of the Etemade Melli party and a close relative of Mehdi Karroubi, has also been released from detention.

2150 GMT: Dr. Ali Tajernia, former MP and senior member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been released after 140 days in detention.

2145 GMT: Human Rights Activists in Iran has a Farsi-language update on detainees, including the transfer of 95 people arrested on 13 Aban from detention centres to Evin Prison.

2140 GMT: After the arrest of two students of Khaje Nasir University in Tehran, classmates went on hunger strike in front of the cafeteria and chanted, “Allahu Akhbar [God is Great]".

2130 GMT: Confirming indications we had received from EA sources in recent weeks, the Supreme Leader has reinstated Ezatullah Zarghami as head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting for five years.

Zarghami had been considered vulnerable because of regime dissatisfaction with IRIB's output before and after the Presidential election, but a suitable replacement could not be arranged. Khamenei indicated this with a call for Zarghami to "take advantage of successful or unsuccessful experiences of the past five years to help this medium reach a better quality".

2125 GMT: Iran's Internal Nuclear Dispute. Press TV's website is now featuring the anti-talks line taken by high-profile MP Alaeddin Boroujerdi (see 0845 GMT).



1648 GMT: Back-Channel US-Iran Talks? An EA reader has picked up what may be a significant unnoticed story in the nuclear negotiations. Peykeiran claims that President Ahmadinejad's close advisor and chief of staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, has secretly met Hooshang Amirahmadi, a US-based academic and the President of the American Iranian Council, in a villa in Gilan Province in northern Iran.

It is unclear why Amirahmadi is representing the Obama Administration and, if so, what message he could be conveying about the discussions on uranium enrichment. If true, however, the meeting would be a clear sign of a split between Ahmadinejad and high-profile conservatives/principlists calling for the deal to be abandoned.

1640 GMT: On the Los Angeles Times' blog "Babylon & Beyond", Borzou Daragahi has highlighted, "Defying supreme leader, reformist Khatami continues to question election" (see 1200, 1400, & 1418 GMT). It will be interesting to see if the Times prints this in Sunday's newspaper, maintaining a focus on Iran after 13 Aban.

One interesting note: Jamaran, where Khatami's remarks first appeared, is owned by the family of the late Ayatollah Khomeini.

1620 GMT: Farhad Pouladi, the Iranian reporter for Agence France Presse detained on 13 Aban, has been freed.

1418 GMT: More on Khatami's Statement (see 1200 GMT). The former President has declared, “Senior authorities should accept that there is a crisis in the country" and allow all views to be expressed freely. He added, "We should find out who are ignoring the law for their own benefit, and those are the ones that should not be at centre of power."

Khatami continued his challenge to the Government as a defence of the true nature of the Islamic Republic:

If we truly return to the rule of law and those who are the guardians of the law don’t interpret the law based on their own personal views and don’t ignore the constitution,...[then the constitution will be the most important reference point. that can create unity in our society despite all the different views

We are still standing firm on our positions....In the Islamic Republic just as we defend Islam we are also defending people’s rights and votes. Those who are ignoring people’s votes and are willing to change them, are strangers to the Revolution and the Islamic Republic.

1408 GMT: And Now the Big News. We wrote earlier this morning that the regime seemed adrift and uncertain in how to respond to 13 Aban, but "tonight the President could try to change all the calculations above with an address to the nation".

Well, he won't because Ahmadinejad's speech tonight is postponed. This may be explained by the sudden announcement that the President is going to Turkey tomorrow (to discuss a re-arranged enrichment deal? --- see 0935 GMT), but pending a major breakthrough on that front, I'm going to read this as confirmation that the Government is a bit more than lost at the moment. This is the second postponement of the speech since Thursday's rallies.

1400 GMT: Regrouping Indeed. Former President Khatami is not just reasserting himself with statements questioning the election and the legitimacy of the Government (see 1200 GMT). He also met Mehdi Karroubi last night in his home.

Nominally, Khatami expressed sorrow and comforted Karroubi about the violence during the 13 Aban rallies, as did Abdollah Nouri, the interior minister in Khatami’s administration, and Bagher Golpaygani , son of the late Grand Ayatollah Golpaygani. But who is to say that other topics were not discussed?

1350 GMT: This is Important, but Why? I'm not sure what to make of this news yet, but Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has traveled to Najaf in Iraq to meet Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani and other Shi'a clerics.

No clue yet as to topic of discussions. Earlier in the crisis, Sistani and his son had been in talks with former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and Iranian clerics who have been critical of the Ahmadinejad Government. So is Larijani seeking support from Sistani and Iraq-based Ayatollahs to bolster the Government? Or the Supreme Leader? Or the position of the Supreme Leader against Ahmadinejad?

1340 GMT: Iranian activist "PersianBanoo" is updating with latest news on arrests from the 13 Aban protests.

1200 GMT: Khatami Rises. We have noted this week that the former President Mohammad Khatami has been relatively quiet, limiting himself to a general statement yesterday when he visited Karroubi  advisor Morteza Alviri.

Well, Khatami is back with a flourish today, declaring that the biggest "crime" of the current regime is its detachment from the values of the Revolution. And, despite warnings from the Supreme Leader, Khatami has renewed his criticism of the Presidential election.

1150 GMT: The Effect of Subsidy Cuts. Borzou Daragahi reports, from a source in Tehran, that bread prices in the capital have more than doubled.

0950 GMT: We've split off our first update today as a separate analysis, "Question for the Regime: What's Your Next Punch?"

0935 GMT: Is the Nuclear Deal On? High-profile MP Alaeddin Boroujerdi may be declaring the enrichment deal dead (see 0845 GMT), but the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad El Baradei, is claiming that a compromise may have been found. He told Bloomberg News that Turkey could replace France as the third country involved, shaping the Iranium uranium enriched by Russia into metal plates.

So, is El Baradei just putting out desperate ideas to save the deal or, given that Press TV is featuring his comments, is there a section of the Iranian Government that is still committed to discussions?

0930 GMT: Really, Only 109? Azizollah Rajabzadeh, the head of Tehran police, has said, "Police arrested 109 people who created disorder and disturbed public order and security on the sideline of the rally on Wednesday. Some 62 of the detainees were jailed and the rest were released."

Of course, that number does not include those detained outside Tehran, but it's still a distance from the 400+ reported by Iranian human rights groups. So, presuming that Rajabzadeh has kept the number low, does that indicate: 1) the regime does not want to admit to the scale of the detentions, which would point to the real size of the rallies? 2) the regime is trying to show it was not that repressive, cutting against the image of the "velvet fist" it has been displaying? 3) nobody within the Government is in control of how to handle the outcome of 13 Aban?

0855 GMT: A "Correct" Press TV. We noted that, late on the night of 13 Aban and early the following day, someone at Press TV was putting out stories highlighting the opposition protests rather than those for the Government.

No more. This morning, Press TV's website has a story, "Iran Frees Three Detained Foreigners". We had that news yesterday; what is more significant is the framing of the article: "On Wednesday tens of thousands of Iranians took to the streets as part of an annual event to mark the storming of the American embassy in Tehran more than three decades ago."

So that's where the "foreigners" were arrested? Well, it must be, since Press TV --- in contrast to its earlier coverage --- dares not mention the Green rallies that were taking place elsewhere in the capital and throughout Iran.

0845 GMT: Is the Nuclear Deal Off? Iranian Students News Agency is featuring a comment by the head of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, “Iran is not to give any of its 1200 kilograms fuel to the other party to receive 20 percent (enriched) fuel and whether gradually or at once, this will not be done and is called off.” Boroujerdi insisted that Iran must and would find another way to get uranium, "Mr [Ali Asghar] Soltanieh [Iran's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency] is in talks to find an approach for the issue.”

Boroujerdi's burying of the Vienna deal for Russia to enrich Iran's uranium follows his speech introducing Friday Prayers, in which he denounced protesters for mouthing the words of the Voice of America.

Iran: Question for the Regime "What's Your Next Punch?"

Latest Iran Video: More from 13 Aban
Iran’s New 13 Aban: An Eyewitness Account “I Have Never Seen as Much Violence”
Iran: Josh Shahryar on the Significance of 13 Aban
Iran Video: The Tribute to 13 Aban’s Protesters
The Latest from Iran (7 November): Regrouping

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Almost 36 hours after the 13 Aban demonstrations, all is relatively quiet on the surface in Iran. In different ways, both sides threw big punches on Wednesday, and both may be re-assessing before deciding on the next punch.

On 13 Aban, the regime's attempted knockout was to beat and detain. We are now getting a fuller picture of the violence of the security forces, and more than 400 Iranians were taken to detention centers and prisons. Yet we also know that the demonstrations continued late into the night. And the opposition's communications are still running, albeit having to cope with restrictions and disruptions: both the Mousavi website Kalemeh has re-established itself, and the Karroubi website Tagheer was back up after an outage on Friday.

So what is a Government to do? Friday's clue to a response, albeit a hesitant and (it appears) uncertain one, was the Friday Prayer of Ahmed Khatami. Significantly, his normal big rhetorical stick was accompanied this time by the carrot of leniency and "freedom" if protesters repented. That offer was matched during the day by the again hesitant and confused signals from the Tehran Prosecutor's office. While still unable or unwilling to give the number of people detained on Wednesday, Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi declared that "many" had been released and, in particular, noted foreigners who had been freed.

At the same time, the regime was announcing a set of trials, starting today and continuing to Monday. of high-profile reformists detained since the election. So, if there is a coherent strategy, it appears to revolve about splitting the Green movement by giving partial amnesty to those who give up the cause and coming down hard on the "leaders".

The difficulties only need a milli-second to emerge. Have a look at the discussion amongst our readers, some of whom are inside Iran, across various threads. It is fascinating and will give you more information than any mainstream analysis. The debate amongst the "rank-and-file" is not whether to give up, accepting a quieter and less fraught life, but what methods to adopt: civil disobedience or a show of force against the regime's oppressions? In such conditions, the signal of Khatami that some may be forgiven is a whistle in a growing opposition wind.

And there are the leaders. Rafsanjani has now retreated from public views to consider his tactics. Mousavi may indeed be bottled up --- for how long, time will tell. Khatami is cautious. But Karroubi? My growing sense is that he feels he has nothing to lose. And a cleric with charisma and nothing to lose poses a problem that no Government threat can easily remove.

So step up, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Tonight the President could try to change all the calculations above with an address to the nation after 9 p.m. The limited previews, however, give no indication that he will not make a direct response to the events of the last 72 hours. Instead, he will try to take the nation's eyes to the "nuclear question" and offer the vision of information technology. Caught up in a different battle, this one with Parliament over his subsidy reform proposals, he may try reassurances and make demands on the economy.

All of which makes sense but still would be an attempt to work around rather than deal with the challenge. For, if there is a takeaway line from 13 Aban, it is this:

The opposition --- whatever the threats, whatever the inducements --- will not go away.

Iran: Josh Shahryar on the Significance of 13 Aban

Iran Video: The Tribute to 13 Aban’s Protesters
Iran: Josh Shahryar on Fictions & Realities of “Revolution”
Iran’s New 13 Aban: “A Major Blow to Khamenei’s Authority”
Iran’s New 13 Aban: A First-Hand Account from the Streets
Iran’s New 13 Aban: “The Green Wave Has Bounced Back”
The Latest from Iran (6 November): The Day After The Day After

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I had to wait two days to write this because I honestly did not know what was most important about the 4 November protests. There was so much to absorb that, at one point, I had to take a cold shower for distraction. But 48 hours is enough time to figure out what I believe might be the best explanations or speculations about the events that transpired.

The most important outcome, in my opinion, was that not a single life was lost. This is the first time since 12 June that a major protest day passed without the death of a protester. This could mean two things. Either the security forces misfired and failed to kill anyone or they were ordered not to kill (of course there’s a slight glimmer of hope that they might have defied orders to kill, but I’d say that would be a bit too optimistic).

The more plausible explanation is that there was a firm line as to how far security forces could. There were thousands of protesters and there were thousands of security forces, and the clashes were violent. Tear gas was fired indiscriminately. But no one shot at demonstrators.

If this is true, then the government has really gambled with its chances of staying in power. If there is no fear of death among the marchers, they could turn out in even larger numbers the next time.

The second most important issue was Mehdi Karroubi’s presence. You’d think that the government would stop this guy from attending these protests and galvanizing the masses. But it didn’t, and he showed up. Not only did he show up, but he was also attacked, adding a little more to his charisma.

At a time when dozens of politicians are in jail or on trial, and Mir Hossein Mousavi is under effective house arrest, the appearance of a high-profile leader at a rally can mean only one thing: unlike the case with other opposition figures, the Government’s hands are tied when it comes to Karroubi. The tear-gas attack on Karroubi's vehicle seemed more like a frustrated establishment attempting to deter him, precisely because it could not take more aggressive action. Probably because the regime is divided over what to do with him, Karroubi is not detained or shut up in his house. Instead, he parades around like a Jedi Master whenever he wants to.

Then there came the moment when the videos of masses screaming denunciation of Supreme Leader Ali Hossein Khamenei surfaced. Fear of directly accusing Khamenei of being a tyrant is no more. As it is said in Pashto, “Every clay pot breaks some day.”

And the people didn’t just stop at denouncing him. They tore down his picture from the billboard, they threw it on the ground, and they stomped over it jubilantly with the grace of ballerinas.

It’s on. And it’s no longer about people’s votes being stolen by Ahmadinejad or the Guardian Council. It is also about Khamenei’s reign of terror, as the masses made it clear that he was one of their list. The immunity he has enjoyed over the past five months vanished within seconds. To the demonstrators, he is now just another violator of basic human rights.

And as a bonus, for the first time (seems like so many first times occurred on 13 Aban), Government-run or Government-censored media were finally able to speak at least some of what is on their minds. Press TV’s article that described the protesters coming out in thousands might have appeared in error. But it sure showed which side the writers of the article were supporting.

Parleman News, a website that acts as an outlet for some parliamentarians, featured an article about both the pro-Government and the Green protests, but while the introduction was about the former, the was more about the latter. The next article juxtaposed praise for Khamenei’s recent remarks with pictures of the people who had desecrated the Leader’s image.

Yes, 13 Aban is over. Most protesters are home. Some are in jail. Some are groaning in pain from their wounds. Others are likely hiding. But their courage has likely changed the game.

Iran's New 13 Aban: "The Green Wave Has Bounced Back"

LATEST Iran’s New 13 Aban: “A Major Blow to Khamenei’s Authority”
Iran's New 13 Aban: A First-Hand Account from the Streets
Iran: Mehdi Karroubi’s Son on 13 Aban Incidents
Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 3rd Set)
Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 2nd Set)
Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 1st Set)
Text: President Obama’s Statement on Iran (4 November)
Iran: Josh Shahryar on Fictions & Realities of “Revolution”
The Latest from Iran (4 November — 13 Aban): Today Is The Day

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UPDATE 1600 GMT: EA's Chris Emery has now posted a response, adding to Mr Smith's points that 13 Aban has been "a major blow to the Supreme Leader's authority".

---

Mr Smith, who was one of the EA correspondents following and updating on yesterday's events, offers his analysis:

The Green Wave has bounced back. The strongly-worded threats by the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps did not deter the supporters of Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, who made it to the police-infested streets of Tehran in their tens of thousands for yet another day of demonstrations, countering the official ones organised by the Ahmadinejad-Khamenei regime.

Yesterday's events are yet again proof of the fact that the opposition has not been defeated and is not going away. Nearly five months into the Iranian post-electoral crisis, the Ahmadinejad-Khamenei camp has not quite figured out a workable plan to fulfil its intent of silencing the critics. The litany of street violence unleashed by security forces, the background of the occasional killing and raping of reformist activists, and the current warnings by the IRGC and Ayatollah Khamenei that criticism of the "legitimate government" amounted to a crime did little to cow the Green Wave supporters. Instead, the Supreme Leader found himself at the receiving end of the street chants.

Yesterday's events also effectively ended the regime's capacity to use key Islamic Republic commemorations for its benefit. The Al-Jazeera English correspondent in Tehran portrayed the Green Wave demonstrations as a "hijacking" of the 13 Aban traditional marches. This interpretation is highly debatable, given that the perpetrators of the assault on the US embassy 30 years ago are now regime enemies, either languishing in jail, such as Mohsen Mirdamadi, or hovering in silence, such as the noted political analyst Abbas Abdi.

Another key outcome from yesterday's protests is the remarkable capacity of the rank-and-file to organise major events "from below", without needing or waiting for the go-ahead from its leadership. In fact, Mousavi and Karroubi are now effectively running after their own supporters and offering fatherly advice to them, rather than acting as beacons for the start of direct action.

And do not underestimate the damage of yesterday to the slight legitimacy that the current Government possesses. The amateur footage of young unarmed women being beaten up by riot police and the widespread accounts of violence meted out by security forces will do little to back up the official claim that a small group of "troublemakers" were dealt with humanely by the police. The new round of arrests against student activists and journalists effectively wipes out the scant concessions offered by the release on bail of eminent reformist personalities such as the newspaper editor Mohammad Ghoochani and the noted journalist Hengameh Shahidi. [Editor's note: That concession is very limited, given that Shahidi appeared yesterday in Revolutionary Court to face charges.]

However, not everything is rosy for the reformists. The heavy "security atmosphere", the Iranian euphemism for the massive presence of police forces on the streets, is having its effects. The number of participants to the 13 Aban demonstrations was considerably lower, by all accounts, than that of the Qods Day marches of 18 September. Many potential participants await news of police deployment before setting out in the streets.
And the leadership is bearing the brunt of its followers' enthusiasm and relative success. While Karroubi is staunchly appearing in public events, only to be confronted violently by the security forces, Mousavi is effectively in virtual house arrest, prevented from joining crowds of any size. Former President Mohammad Khatami is even more detached, while Hashemi Rafsanjani has gone back to his behind-the-scenes scheming.

More than ever, the Green movement now needs a clear-cut, cogent, middle- to long-term political strategy that will harness the strong popular resentment against Ahmadinejad to plans for the fall of the present government and the establishment of an alternative one, be that in the guise of a "National Unity" coalition or another form. There are reasons to believe that this possiblity is not far-fetched. Political enmity between Ahmadinejad and his conservative opponents is on the rise once again. The Brothers Larijani have contrived to block or delay any possible nuclear deal between the government and the International Atomice Energy Agency, for fear of the credit it would bring to Ahmadinejad. The subsidy plan proposed by the President has unravelled after a public quarrel between the president and Ali Larijani, the Speaker of the Majlis.

A deal between Mousavi, Karroubi, and the Larijanis is still distant on the horizon. However, the two reformist leaders must attempt to turn the sizeable following they command into political capital. Up to that point, the Green movement will resemble the "creative chaos" that has often appeared in recent Iranian political history but has only occasionally succeeded in attaining its long-term goals. A nervous and vicious stalemate hangs right now over the political skyline of Tehran, with the shadows of the Islamic Republic's most enduring political crisis becoming deeper than ever.