Saudi King Abdullah in Damascus: Where is Syria Heading?

Israel-Palestine: Sacrificing the Goldstone Report to the War of Politics

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Returning Syrian President Bashar Assad's visit to Saudi Arabia, King Abdullah held talks with Assad in Damascus. Thetwo talked about the Middle East , exchanged national medals, and signed an agreement to regulate taxation. Buthaina Shaaban, an adviser to Assad, described the talks as productive, "strengthening the Arab Islamic position" in the face of Israeli intransigence.

Although Abdullah's visit, his first as King, is not expected to bring a fundamental change in the region, it is a positive sign of the continuation of "engagement" by the Obama Administration with Damascus. At the same time, Syria is not willing to sacrifice its "alliance" with Iran and will portray this meeting as a part of a solid front facing  Israel. As Shaaban said, "Syria's ties with Iran and Turkey, as well as Saudi Arabia, would help create an effective Islamic bloc."

The Latest from Iran (7 October): Drama in Parliament?

UPDATED Iran: Rafsanjani Makes A Public Move with "Friendship Principles"
UPDATED Iran: How a Non-Story about a Non-Jew Became Media Non-Sense
Video: 4 Clips from Tehran Azad University Protests (6 October)
The Latest from Iran (6 October): Loud Noises, Quiet Manoeuvres

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2130 GMT: A very depressing end to the day. The Committee on Human Rights Reporters has announced that Mohammad Reza Ali Zamani, a member of the The Association of Monarchists, is
to be executed by hanging for taking part in the demonstrations following the June elections. Zamani, who had no access to independent legal representation, was transferred on Monday from Section 29 of Evin Prison to Branch 15 of the Revolutionary Courts and his sentence was handed down by Judge Salavati.

To our knowledge, this is the first death sentence for a partipicant in post-election protest.

(http://chrr.us/spip.php?article6138)

1800 GMT: Disturbing article in Payvand that 10 of the 21 members of the "press court jury" have been replaced in elections. Out go Fatemeh Karoubi, wife of Etemade Melli party head Mehdi Karoubi, Masih Mohajeri, editor-in-chief of Jomhouri Eslami newspaper, and cleric Mohsen Doagu, all of whom have been critical of the Ahmadinejad administration. The news accompanies the closure of three more newspapers since Sunday.

1715 GMT: Report that 12 members of the Iran Teachers Union who were arrested on Tuesday (the day after World Teachers Day) have been released from detention.

1530 GMT: Let's Keep It Global, OK? Sure looks like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wants to talk about matters other than domestic trifles. He appeared on Iran state television after a Cabinet meeting to confirm Tehran's willingness to consider "third-party enrichment" of its uranium, adding:

I think these negotiations were a step forward and I hope we proceed with the same trend so we will have constructive cooperation to resolve all outstanding global issues....In these negotiations we witnessed better behaviour than in the past from some countries and we noticed that the logic of respect and justice is being established gradually. These talks are good basis for continuation of the negotiations.

1319 GMT: Prompted by readers, we're investigating the story that the Obama Administration has cut funding to four Iran-centred human rights organisations. The only article so far, in Boston.com, considers the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center. The three other groups are not identified.

1315 GMT: Fereshteh Ghazi ("Iranbaan") has updated on the condition of a number of detainees, including the two of 18 students who were not released after University protests last week.

1105 GMT: And Now A Distraction. Press TV summarises the Supreme Leader's public address in the northern city of Chalous:

The enemy started to throw mud and spread rumors in order to undermine and downplay this big political victory....The enemy caused unrest in a part of the country. We see that it is worried about the 85 percent participation of the Iranian nation in the presidential election....Iran's foes are angry with progress and development of the nation.

And so on and so on....

0915 GMT: OK, So We Did Talk. Aladdin Boroujerdi, the Head of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, has messed up the Government's "Maybe We Did, Maybe We Didn't" strategy by confirming that Iranian and American delegates did have bilateral discussions at the Geneva meeting on Iran's nuclear programme. Saeed Jalili, the lead Iranian negotiator, had denied that any 1-on-1 conversation took place.

0820 GMT: One source for the claim that Saeed Mortazavi is on the firing line for the Parliamentary report on post-election abuses (see 0740 GMT) is member of Parliament Ali Reza Zakani, who claims that documents will soon be produced for judicial authorities establishing Mortazavi's guilt.

0810 GMT: Ayatollah Dastgheib has written another letter criticising the handling of the post-election crisis, alleging that "military men" are the cause of "vices" in Iran.

0755 GMT: Is This A Confession of Fraud or An Attack on Larijani? In an interview, conservative member of Parliament Javad Karimi Ghadousi claims that Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani wants a National Unity Government so that he can replace Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as President. Ghadousi criticises Larijani for investigations of post election events, such as the raids on Tehran University dormitories and the abuses at Kahrizak Prison, "in defiance" of the Supreme Leader's statement that these were "side issues".

This, however, is the headline assertion: Larijani called Mir Hossein Mousavi on the night of the Presidential election to congratulate him on victory, and Deputy Speaker Mohammad Reza Bahonar wrote a letter to Ayatollah Khamenei that the regime has to accept and prepare for Mousavi as President.

0745 GMT: Back in Action (with a Great Headline). It looks like Mehdi Karroubi's Web presence has returned, with the repackaging of Tagheer on a different URL. It criticises proposed First Vice President Rahimi (see yesterday and 0530 GMT) with one of the best lines in the post-election crisis: "Fake Correspondence of Fake Minister in Fraudulent Government".

0740 GMT: News is coming out of the Iranian Parliament that while parts of the report on post-election abuses are classified, it does criticise --- as rumoured --- former Tehran Prosecutor General (now Iran Deputy Prosecutor General) Saeed Mortazavi and Tehran police chief Ahmad Reza Radan.

0550 GMT: Nothing to See Here. Not a word on Press TV's website about the internal political dynamics. Instead it goes for Iran in the World, with "the [Supreme] Leader...has said Iran's military advances are no a threat to any nation but instead are helping them progress 'without dependence' on the US."

Nothing in Fars News' headlines either; however, the Islamic Republic News Agency does feature a critique of "the archaeology of Hashemi Rafsanjani's National Unity Plan". The analyst, Mohammad Sajjad Nosrati, begins with an invocation of "the discourse of [French philosopher/sociologist] Michel Foucault" (somehow I can't see the same approach being applied to Barack Obama's health care plan in the US) before asserting that the Plan was put forth a few months before the Presidential election.

0530 GMT: After days of fencing and manoeuvring for position, we may see some interesting developments inside and around the Majlis today, as a Parliamentary committee is scheduled to present its report on post-election abuses.

Tensions between the President and conservative/principlist groups have been re-emerging, with hints that condemnation of episodes such as the crimes in Kahrizak Prison may have to name some names, pressing the Ahmadinejad Government to take the reprimand and offer up a scapegoat. That has been accompanied by a renewal of discontent over the President's choice of allies and cronies, with whispers becoming public grumbles about selections such as the First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi. And one should not overlook that the headline, "Supreme Leader Reshuffles Top Positions" at the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps and Basiji headquarters, sits on top of a continuing battle between the President and others to control the Ministry of Intelligence.

Still, the key word in the opening sentence above is "may". The Parliamentary report has already been delayed, and conservative/principlist critics may decide once again to put aside their differences with Ahmadinejad. For what we have yet to see in this crisis is a conservative/principlist decision to set aside their basic opposition to "reformists", allying with them at least temporarily to force changes from Ahmadinejad and the security forces.

And that in turn takes us to the heart of the confusion and tension over the "National Unity Plans", whether that is one Plan, two rival Plans, or even more. With a lot of attention on Hashemi Rafsanjani, the question has not been answered: is there any plan which has finally brought agreement between conservative/principlist groups and reformists to work together in a committee to bring signficant changes?

UPDATED Iran: Rafsanjani Makes A Public Move with "Friendship Principles"

The Latest from Iran (4 October): Waiting for Developments

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UPDATE 7 October 1815 GMT: A specialist on Iranian politics adds to the debate, picking up our Tuesday item on Rafsanjani's comment to clerics, “In order to exit this crisis, we need 2 identify the ‘true culprits’ of divisions and provocations and confront them decisively.”

I think it's very important, when reading the tea leaves, to give  the larger picture. While your entry makes it sound like Rafsanjani is directing his comments at the government, reading the full report you link to makes it clear he doesn't mean the government. Rafsanjani emerged last week having pledged his support of [Ayatollah] Khamenei, and it is claimed he said that those who say there's a rift between him and Khamenei are trying to create disunity. The notion of unity in post-revolutionary Iran is more often than not used by the non-reformists as a way of indirectly criticizing the
opposition.


His talk you quote from was given to some of the clerics in the principalist faction of the parliament, and comes after he thanks them for their efforts. While the comment you quote by itself is vague enough to be something for everybody, considering his audience and his comments in the past 10 days, I think he's talking about the rumors of a rift between him
and the leader and also [denying] that he's on the side of the opposition.

UPDATE 0930 GMT: A top EA correspondent, working with information from inside Iran, is pessimistic about the impact of the Rafsanjani statement, “there seems to be very little enthusiasm over this latest communique”:

"Rafsanjani has driven many to exasperation with his infinite ambiguous language (if anything, yesterday's statement is a masterpiece in this art), and it looks like his main aim, as in July before and after his Friday prayers, seems to be that of getting his own people and the top reformists out of jail and keeping his family safe (his son Mehdi Hashemi is currently visiting Britain and his daughter Faezeh Hashemi is probably out of the country too); there is little more beyond this."

There are strong doubts that Rafsanjani will break the mould and come through with a solution that will really assuage Mousavi, Karroubi, and the Green crowd. Besides, and this is the question that keeps returning to the foreground, how much power does he really have? There is still the tendency to consider Rafsanjani as the real kingmaker, the one with the keys to all doors, the one that, given time to work it through, WILL eventually come up with the solution. My gut feeling is that Rafsanjani had this ability only in the past, and now we are past the stage that he will be listened to by all segments of the regime. He might be trying to portray himself as the deal maker he was in the past, but whether he is still so is very debatable.

UPDATE 5 October 0745 GMT: I've got back over Rafsanjani's statement, the interpretation of the EA contact who translated it, and helpful comments from our readers.

I lean towards the interpretation that Rafsanjani's reference to a "secret movement" (which I too literally translated as "mysterious" in the original post) is targeted more at challengers within the system, rather than the Green opposition. But, to ask a perhaps more important question, is this a head-on challenge to President Ahmadinejad, his political allies, and possibly the Revolutionary Guard? Has Rafsanjani "thrown down" with this statement or has he left himself enough room to say that he does not question the legitimacy of the Government but only seeks reform of its practices and policies?

The former President has posted a statement on his website, setting out these guidelines: 1) his "perfect" friendship and relationship with the Supreme Leader; 2) the pillars of the regime -- revolutionary principles, leadership, senior clerics (marjas), and the people; 3) a plan of national unity, pursued in conjunction with the Supreme Leader.

Rafsanjani adds that the only "reliable" source of news on the regime's politics is the public-relations office of the Expediency Council, which Rafsanjani heads. Most intriguing is Rafsanjani's claim of a "secret movement and its efforts to create divisions and weakness in the structure and organization of the Islamic Republic", a reference which could be to the Green Wave, to other agencies and individuals within the establishment, or both.

What can be clearly be said is that Rafsanjani, with the statement, is warning the Iranian public not to accept any "National Unity Plan" as valid unless it has his endorsement. What is still unclear is the content of the plan that the former President supports.

In another statement, Rafsanjani has asked the head of Iran's judiciary, Mohammad Sadegh Larijani, to investigate "accusations and slanders against my family" and anounce the results.

Iran: How a Non-Story about a Non-Jew Became Media Non-Sense

The Latest from Iran (7 October): Drama in Parliament?

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AHMADI: STILL NOT A JEW

UPDATE 1700 GMT: Silliness Upon Silliness. Press TV, probably inadvertently, highlights the idiocy of the Daily Telegraph report by adding...more idiocy. "A senior political analyst specializing in media affairs" says, "These reports are undoubtedly published in line with Israeli interests. In light of the Goldstone report, such reports are obviously designed to divert world attention from Israeli crimes against Palestinians and the use of weapons of mass destruction in the three-week attack on the Gaza Strip." Oh, yes, he adds that the report "was also meant to undermine" the Geneva talks on Iran's nuclear programme.

But out of the ridiculousness: I'm sending a note to CNN's Jim Clancy that "a senior media analyst" might be available for an interview.

You may have noticed that we haven't said much about the "Ahmadinejad is Jewish" allegation. Apart from the e-mail from a reader who found the whole episode a morning laugh, the only biggest significance was the journalistic a) fraud or b) innocent idiocy of The Daily Telegraph, which claimed an "exclusive" of a story that was eight months old (launched on the blog of Mehdi Khazali, the son of the late Ayatollah) and had already been discredited.

The story ran "hot" for 24 hours, with almost no one noticing this was an old non-story (even though The Daily Telegraph coyly said, low in the article, that Khazali had called for an investigation of Mr Ahmadinejad's roots"). First, the media tried to sell papers and boost viewer ratings with "Shock: Iran's President is A Jew". Then it did the same with "Shock: Iran's President is Not a Jew". Meir Javedanfar finally tried to sound the closing bell on the story, writing in The Guardian of London, "Ahmadinejad has no Jewish roots".

You might think that this was the end of our non-story, but never understimate the media's tenacity in spinning new rubbish out of old rubbish. In Foreign Policy magazine, Jamsheed Chosky insisted, "True or not, the rumors matter." Even though there appears to have been little or no attention to the non-story inside Iran, Chosky confidently assured, "On the domestic front in Iran, the whole issue plays into the widening chasm between the mullahs and Ahmadinejad, some of whom have challenged his family's Muslim lineage and piety for years." And then, assuming that folks will not see through this bunch of tosh, Chosky adds the "international dimension": "As his heritage becomes a more public question, it only makes it less likely that he can find accommodation with Israel without compromising himself in Muslim eyes."

Yet the most blatant attempt to find life in the Dead Parrot of All Political Stories came from CNN, courtesy of anchorman Jim Clancy of "Question of the Day" fame. Yesterday afternoon, Clancy brought on Meir Javedanfar, presumably to say that Ahmadinejad Was Still Not Jewish. However, Clancy still insists that this non-Jewish status was still relevant because of "the analysis about why the conservative media in Iran were ALL OVER the story". I didn't get the chance to ask Clancy if he meant Kayhan or Fars News or the Islamic Republic News Agency or Tabnak.

Now CNN does not post transcripts of Clancy's programme and, thank goodness, its website is not featuring the non-story. Perhaps Javedanfar will re-surface to clarify who is ALL OVER what. However, until then, using Clancy-esque capitals....

COVER SOMETHING THAT IS REALLY IMPORTANT OR STOP EATING UP AIRSPACE

The Latest from Iran (6 October): Loud Noises, Quiet Manoeuvres

NEW Video: 4 Clips from Tehran Azad University Protests (6 October)
NEW Iran: Talks and Legitimacy - Takeyh and Marandi on CNN
The Latest from Iran (5 October): The Difficulty of Signals

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1940 GMT: Isn't It Ironic, Don't You Think? The Iranian Government has celebrated Teachers Day by arresting 12 teachers. (To clarify, in light of comments below, World Teachers Day is 5 October. Iran's Teachers Day is 2 May.)

1745 GMT: Rumours and Audits. Tomorrow could be a very interesting day in the Iranian Parliament. The hot whisper is that former Tehran Prosecutor General and now Iran Deputy Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi could be set up as the "fall guy" for abuses mentioned in a Parliamentary report.

More substantial --- at this point --- is another criticism of President Ahmadinejad, this time over Government expenditure. The National Audit Report to the Parliament claims mismanagement, embezzlement, and fraud and accuses the Government of 2005-2009 of harming the nation.

1725 GMT: The release of the editor-in-chief of Etemade Melli, Mohammad Ghoochani, has been delayed.

1635 GMT: Another Player on the Pitch. OK, the reformists are in play with their meeting with senior clerics (1555 GMT). Rafsanjani's gone public with his meeting with clerics (1608 GMT). And now Alireza Beheshti, Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor, re-enters after his recent detention. He has written an open letter of scathing criticism of the Revolutionary Guard and its commander, Mohammad Ali Jafari.

1618 GMT: Larijani Win, Ahmadinejad Defeat? Mik Verbrugge adds vital information on Ali Larijani's re-election as head of the Principlist group in Parliament (1605 GMT). Despite days of reports that pro-Ahmadinejad MPs would try to unseat Larijani, their candidate received only seven votes.

1615 GMT: More Student Protests. Reports and videos are coming in of demonstrations at Shiraz/Sadra University and Azad University in Tehran.

1608 GMT: Another Rafsanjani Message? As some senior clerics meet reformist politicians (1555 GMT), others have met Hashemi Rafsanjani to express grave concern over the national crisis and ask Rafsanjani to take all steps towards resolution. Rafsanjani reportedly answered, "In order to exit this crisis, we need 2 identify the 'true culprits' of divisions and provocations and confront them decisively." He further explained that such culprits were those "who accuse, slander, float rumours, and those in the media who help them".

1605 GMT: Ali Larijani has been re-elected leader of the Principlist group in Parliament with 24 of 32 central committee votes.

1555 GMT: Now It Gets Interesting. Members of the Parliamentary reformist minority, the Imam Khomeini Line, will consult with marjas (senior clerics), including Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib. The news comes 24 hours before a Parliamentary committee is due to report on its enquiry into alleged abuses of post-election detainees.

1545 GMT: No Sympathy Allowed. Back from academic seminars to find a rush of developments. Yet another sign that the ruling authorities are feeling some pressure. The Vice Governor of Tehran has ordered City Council members to refrain from meeting freed detainees and families.

1210 GMT: I Love You (Spell It with Tractors). Mowj-e-Sabz, the website of the Green movement, has a delightfully naughty article about the dubious background of Ahmadinejad's latest selection for First Vice President, Mohammad Reza Rahimi. There's little to support claims such as "allegations of stealing land from a University", but this allegation made up for lack of evidence with a sense of style:

He later assumed position as the governor of Kurdistan Province in the early 90s when Rafsanjani was in his second term as Iranian President. According to sources supporting the current coup government, during Rafsanjani’s visit to his province, Rahimi ordered farmers to place their tractors in a way that would read phrases in praise of Rafsanjani.

Meanwhile, three members of Parliament have filed a complaint, requesting investigation of claims that Rahimi forged his doctorate.

1155 GMT: Poke, Poke, Poke. You might think that the Ahmadinejad Government, having gotten agreement to a series of talks and averted the prospect of tougher sanctions, might want to take a quiet, steady line.

No chance. The latest jab of the stick comes from the head of Iran's nuclear programme, Ali Akhbar Salehi, who tells Kayhan that the second uranium enrichment plant at Fardoo will have the latest in high-technology centrifuges. In other words, the calmer narrative of Fardoo as a back-up to the main plant at Natanz will now be replaced, both by Tehran and by "Western" critics of engagement, with the portrayal of Fardoo as a front-line component in Iran's drive to nuclear energy (Iran version) or nuclear weapons ("Western" critics version).

1000 GMT: Former President Mohammad Khatami has visited the home of the recently-released reformist leader Saeed Hajjarian. No details of the discussion have been offered.

0945 GMT: Earlier we noted the closure of Farhange Ashti, a newspaper close to Hashemi Rafsanjani, and the pro-reformist Arman-e Ravabet-e Omoumi by the Press Supervisory Board (0715 GMT). It is now reported that a third newspaper, Tahlil Rooz, has been shut.

0830 GMT: News arrives of a new Web project to offer English translations of German media on the post-election crisis in Iran. Some interesting material is already on-line.

0745 GMT: We've posted a brief analysis and transcript of an interview of former Obama Administration official Ray Takeyh and University of Tehran academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi on CNN. It's a textbook example of how, as Washington pursues engagement, the Ahmadinejad Government will link the talks to international and internal legitimacy.

0715 GMT: A quiet Tuesday so far. The Ahmadinejad Government has been playing up its international profile, calling the Geneva talks on the nuclear programme a “national success” for “Iran's resistance” to foreign pressure and emphasising that the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad El Baradei “praised Iran's cooperation" in his Sunday press conference. (There was no reference to El Baradei's call for transparency from Tehran.) Ahmadinejad also proclaimed Iran's support for the Iraqi Government, framing it as an ally against unnamed opponents: "With fine qualities such as theirs, the Iraqi nation has a bright future ahead of it. It will undoubtedly stop its enemies in their tracks and take up its responsibilities with the understanding and foresight that it has."

Nothing further on the “National Unity Plan”. Nor has there been much from the Green movement or even from leading reformists since the weekend. So we are still stuck in trying to understand the politics behind a plan whose details are not known.

However, there was one very powerful signal on Monday of the internal battle between forces allied with Hashemi Rafsanjani and those who oppose his manoeuvres for “political reconciliation”. Farhange Ashti, a newspaper close to Rafsanjani, was closed on orders of the Press Supervisory Board. The pro-reformist Arman-e Ravabet-e Omoumi has also been shut.