Iran: Rafsanjani Seizes the Initiative

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I got it wrong. Writing on a train to Edinburgh and relying on a shaky translation, I updated yesterday that Hashemi Rafsanjani's address at the Assembly of Experts had been clever but cautious. With an emphasis on unity, an alignment with the Supreme Leader, and a call for resolution within the system, he had not made a direct challenge to the Government.

Wrong.

Fortunately EA's Mr Johnson, with a thorough and incisive translation of the speech, corrected my reading in a later update and identified Rafsanjani's very direct message to President Ahmadinejad and his allies. Put not so cleverly and carefully, it is this. Mr President, it is time for you to compromise, especially with the senior clerics, in a process overseen by the Supreme Leader. Doing so, you will acknowledge where the final authority lies in the Islamic Republic: with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, backed by his clerical experts, and not with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Doing so, you will acknowledge that your direction and your officials are responsible for post-election abuses which must be punished and redressed.

Several important caveats to this message should be noted. This does not mean that Hashemi Rafsanjani is in step with the Green movement. At no point yesterday, as far as I know, did he acknowledge their presence. The Qods Day demonstrations had been of the Iranian people showing their determined defense of the cause of Palestine. Mehdi Karroubi's letter was never cited as the source of Rafsanjani's knowledge of abuses. Only the Supreme Leader and the marjas (the most senior of clerics) were identified --- Khamenei explicitly, the marjas implicitly --- as the defenders of justice. And Rafsanjani always balanced his charges of crimes and abuses with the general invocation that they had been committed by all sides in the conflict, not just by the security forces and Government officials. Rafsanjani does not walk in step with the Green movement but their paths converge when it comes to the desire to curb Ahmadinejad.



And that leads to the second caveat: although Rafsanjani never said so, the opposition opened up the space and thus made it possible for him to make his challenge. In particular, Rafsanjani needs the demonstration on Qods Day that many Iranian people were not only still angry with the President, still insistent on changes in the system, but also ready to take to the streets to give political substance to their feelings. In retrospect, that seems to be the reason why the former President laid low on Friday, watching, wating, and calculating, and then made his appearance (which, inevitably, would be in the vicinity of President Ahmadinejad but, now it is clear, not alongside him) at the Supreme Leader's end-of-Ramadan speech. Rafsanjani had some security in the criticism of the Government by senior clerics, many of whom were in the Assembly yesterday, but even those individuals might be picked off by the Ahmadinejad forces with their relatives arrested and their reputations slandered. After Friday, however, he had the security of knowing that, if the Government persisted, so would mass opposition by the Green movement. Resistance would not be broken. And he had also had the security of the Supreme Leader's Sunday address. For Khamenei had said to the President and the Revolutionary Guard, in his directive that in-court confessions could not be used against any third party, that Rafsanjani's family were immune from the charges in the Tehran trials.

A third caveat is essential, however. Rafsanjani did not call and will not call, even in code, for the dismissal of Ahmadinejad. That moment, if it ever existed, passed long ago with the affirmation of the Supreme Leader that the 12 June election result would stand.

No, Ahmadinejad can still be top political dog. But Rafsanjani is asking that he be put in the doghouse and on a firm leash.

This leads to an irony which is not an irony. The still-loose President was on his way to New York when Rafsanjani made his speech challenging that President's authority. A far from ironic moment, however, because Rafsanjani had undoubtedly made another calculation. It is not just that Ahmadinejad is out of the country but that his rhetoric will be directed at external issues such as the nuclear programme and Irna's leadership in causes such as the campaign such as Zionism.

Those issues are secondary --- although almost all in the "Western" media will have no comprehension of this --- to the internal matters put forward by Rafsanjani yesterday. So, once more as with the 17 July Friday Prayer address, he has the initiative.

Here is the question. Will the Supreme Leader, who opened up the door to Rafsanjani's political re-entry, now accompany him in that initiative?

The Latest from Iran (21 September): Distractions

Iran: More on Rafsanjani and Khamenei’s End-of-Ramadan Speech
NEW Iran: Khamenei Scrambles for Position
The Latest from Iran (20 September): Khamenei’s End-of-Ramadan Speech

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2010 GMT: The buzz over Imam Khomeini's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, continues. After his appearance yesterday at the Supreme Leader's speech (analysed in a separate entry), the Islamic Republic News Agency has attacked him for his continued visits to the families of detainees (see 1510 GMT).

1535 GMT: Revelation of the Day. Rooz Online claims that the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps has ordered the Ministry of Health not to release the medical records of recently injured protesters, thus covering up the cause of their wounds.

Afternoon Update (1510 GMT): A New Act in the Crackdown? State TV has again put high-profile reformist detainees Saeed Hajjarian, Mohammad Atrianfar, and Saeed Shariati on air in a two-day roundtable to explain and analyse their transgressions, no doubt re-drawing the picture of foreign-directed attempts at regime change. The trio were featured in a roundtable last month after the first wave of Tehran trials.

Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Imam Khomeini, has continued his visits to the families of post-election detainees. The visits have been seen as symbolic of Khomeini's challenge to the current Government and have resumed a day after his appearance at the Supreme Leader's Eid-al-Fitr address.

Parliament Qualms? Deputy Speaker Mohammad Reza Bahonar has again raised the prospect of a legislative clash with the President after the cease-fire that led to approval of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. Bahonar has expressed qualms about the President's power, saying he is worried that Ahmadinejad will start changing Ministers and declaring that Parliament will force Government to abide by laws.


0820 GMT: A quiet morning, as all sides continue to manoeuvre for position. The major political story is the Supreme Leader's attempt in his speech yesterday both to stabilise his position and to push for a settlement including both the President and Hashemi Rafsanjani. We've analysed that in a separate entry, "Khamenei Scrambles for Position".

Unfortunately, this story is now beyond the comprehension of most "mainstream" media outside Iran. So, instead of considering the internal dynamics, they will be distracted this week by President Ahmadinejad's visit to New York. They will not pick up on the most important aspect of this trip, namely that Ahmadinejad will use it to show Iranian people that he is in control and that protest against him jeopardises Iran's prominent position in world affairs. (Not many people, even veteran Iran-watchers, have figured out that this is why he gave the "exclusive" interview to NBC's Anne Curry.) They will not realise that the importance of Iran's nuclear programme is more in the prestige that it gives the President, especially as he can show defiance against "Western" and Israeli attempts to curb it, than in any imminent military use.

The headlines on the Supreme Leader's speech this morning give the game away: It's Not about Iranians, It's About US. CNN blares, "Iranian leader decries Obama's missile defense plan". The BBC adds, "Khamenei denies US nuclear claims". NBC, having tried to dine out on the interview with President Ahmadinejad, falls back into the superficial with "Iran's leader says U.S. nuke accusations wrong". The New York Times avoids the pitfall by saying nothing at all. (The honourable exception is The Los Angeles Times, which recognises,"Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei Says Opposition Protests Failed".)

Iran: More on Rafsanjani and Khamenei's End-of-Ramadan Speech

The Latest from Iran (21 September): Distractions
Iran: Khamenei Scrambles for Position
The Latest from Iran (20 September): Khamenei’s End-of-Ramadan Speech

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Complementing our reading of the dynamic between the Supreme Leader and Hashemi Rafsanjani, Pedestrian summarises the post of blogger Agh Bahman. Bahman also adds useful thoughts on the positions of Imam Khomeini's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, and Mohammad Khatami:


Everyone has been criticizing Rafsanjani and Hassan Khomeini for showing up at the Fetr prayer yesterday, and I just didn’t think the criticism was founded. We’ve had very few “real” politicians in our recent history, people willing to bend and compromise and adapt to circumstances. And I think Hashemi Rafsanjani, for all his shortcomings, is of this rare breed. Agh Bahman captures it perfectly (this is a summary of his post):

What got the most attention in yesterday’s prayer was the presence of Rafsanjani and Hassan Khomeini, and after them, Nateq Nouri in line behind the leader and beside Ahmadinejad. Many went so far as to interpret this as Rafsanjani’s betrayal of the people’s movement. When I got up and heard the news, I too was surprised. But when I thought a little more, my opinion changed completely. If you felt like me, read this, maybe your opinion will change too.

The Fetr prayer is one of the few state events which practically all high officials attend. Personally, I don’t remember any other even in which all officials participate. I think not showing up at Fetr prayer is like saying you don’t want to pray behind the leader. Did Rafsanjani do anything in the past three months that meant this remotely, so that now, showing up in the prayer is surprising?

In the past three months, Rafsanjani  did not attend two events which he was expected to attend: the two inauguration ceremonies. Both of these events had to do with Ahmadinejad and giving legitimacy to his government and this Rafsanjani did not want to do. Notice, just a few days after those ceremonies, he went to the goodbye and welcoming ceremonies for Shahroudi and Sadeq Larijani, the previous and current head of the judiciary. Probably one reason for his attendance was to show his respect to Shahroudi, but in any case, the judiciary head is appointed by the leader, and if Rafsanjani had reached a point where he wasn’t willing to pray behind the leader, he shouldn’t have showed up there either. And of course, Rafsanjani did not attend the two Friday prayers led by the leader, which was natural. From what I remember, unless Rafsanjani was prayer leader, he never attended the prayer  no matter who was leading. [notice, Rafsanjani sees himself, or at least used to see himself, as man #2. So just as the leader is not willing to pray behind anyone, and thus never shows up, neither does Rafsanjani].

Of course Rafsanjani did something else yesterday which didn’t get anyone’s attention and that was his absence in the leader’s meeting with the officials which takes place every year after the Fetr prayers in the leader’s beyt [the religious center adjacent to the leader’s home I think, or since “beyt” means “home” in Arabic, it’s supposed to be adjacent to his home, as was Khomeini’s, even if it isn’t.] From the photos we have of yesterday’s meeting, only the heads of the three branches of government are sitting behind the leader and Rafsanjani is very noticeably absent.

I went and found the photos from previous years. In the last four years, Rafsanjani was only missing in 2005. He was there last year and the year before that. I think by not going, he’s sending a message to the leader that he’s only willing to participate in events so far as he is formally obligated and no more. For instance, in a few days when the annual meeting of the Assembly of Experts with the leader takes place, I think Rafsanjani will go, and will sit beside the leader.

And now for Seyed Hassan Khomeini

I think Hasan Khomeini has a similar circumstance [as Rafsanjani]. He was in the first line of prayer every year at Fetr. In the past three months, he’s done nothing and said nothing which would mean that he’s turning his back on the leader. Khomeini showed his complaint out in the opinion on two occasions: not showing up at the inauguration, and not going to meet with Ahmadinejad in Imam Khoemini’s masoleum. Again, both these acts showed his disregard for Ahmdinejad and the legitimacy of his government.

And in fact, after the prayer, Khomeini did something that would obviously show his position: he went to see the family of Mohsen Mirdamadi (the chief officer of the Participation Front who is prison, and whose son was taken into custody just a few days ago) and Javad Emam (a recently released member of the Mojahedin party).

The Great Absence: Khatami

I think the biggest news from the prayer was not the presence of Rafsanjani or Khomeini, but the absence of Khatami.  Khatami too was first in line every year, and his absence sends a very clear signal: that he no longer accepts the leadership of this leader. Karoubi and Mousavi have been very vocal and have gone very far, and anyways, they were never seen in the first line of prayer these past few years. We can guess that they were absent for the same reasons as Khatami, but since Khatami was always first in line, his absence is much more noticed.

I should also add that I think one of the people to whom the leader’s words were address was Khatami. He said that confessions against other people in court was not credible. In court, a lot was said against Khatami. Against Karoubi and Mousavi too, but most was said about Khatami. I think the leader intended to appease Khatami with those words.

Iran: Khamenei Scrambles for Position

The Latest from Iran (20 September): Khamenei’s End-of-Ramadan Speech

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Enduring America, 19 September: "[On 12 June the Supreme Leader] put his own authority on the line, and much of the story of the last three months has been whether he ensured or damaged that authority. So absence [from Qods Day] comes not in the midst of certitude of his Supreme Leadership but in the question of whether Khamenei is now scrambling for position vs. his own President."

Because the speech hadn't been given much advance publicity, in contrast to his Friday Prayer appearances, the attention to the Supreme Leader's Eid-al-Fitr address yesterday was initially a trickle, especially outside Iran. The horribly misleading Associated Press summary dominated the news cycle for hours, and later reports by Western agencies flowed into diversions such as the rhetoric on Israel and Khamenei's purported comments on the Iranian nuclear programme.

For those clued up on the internal Iranian situation, the trickle turned into a torrent of significance, especially with the appearance of former President Hassan Rafsanjani, a stare away from President Ahmadinejad, at the event. This was not just a Supreme Leader declaring that he had the seen the crescent of the moon. This was Ayatollah Khamenei trying to shore up his shaky position by bringing together the current President and "Establishment" figures such as Rafsanjani.

While I would not go as far as to say a deal between Khamenei and Rafsanjani was struck before the speech, I am persuaded that the Supreme Leader's rather curious declaration that confessions in trials cannot be used against detainees (curious because it did not fit the rest of the address and was not featured in the Iranian media, either that of the state or the opposition) was a pointed political offer. It does not mean that opposition leaders are safer today --- the assertion of the AP mis-story --- for there are other methods that can be used to pressure and "convict" them. It does mean that the confessions in the Tehran trials charging Rafsanjani's family with corruption can be tucked away.

That is, if Rafsanjani plays his part and backs off a challenge to the Presidency and the system. No one noticed yesterday that the next important event, as important as President Ahmadinejad's self-promotion in New York, is the meeting of the Assembly of Experts tomorrow. That gathering, delayed from August, will be headed by Rafsanjani, and it will include many of the senior clerics who have increasingly come out against the Government.

So here was a potential platform, coming four days after the Qods Day demonstrations, for Rafsanjani to make a public stand, forcing an initial battle in the Assembly and beyond that with Ahmadinejad and allies. Within the broader language of the Eid-al-Fitr address, trying to put the opposition beyond acceptability because of its direction by "foreign agents" like the US and Israel, Khamenei was offering Hashemi an alternative to a public move at the Assembly.

Beyond that step, however, is a snapshot of the Supreme Leader's shaky position. When he offered a similar deal to Rafsanjani on 19 June, Khamenei was doing so at the head of events. He was the one who had proclaimed that Ahmadinejad could be President, he was the one who had called on Iran to stand against the opposition, he was the one who could say as Supreme Leader that religion supported the Iranian political system.

Three months, he does not lead but responds. He is trying to counter the challenge of his own clerical establishment. He has failed to stamp his authority on a President who seems determined to fight a battle to a bloody political end, whatever the cost to the legitimacy of an Islamic Republic. And he cannot stop those tens of thousands coming out on the streets against that President and, to an extent, against him.

On 5 August, when the Supreme Leader invoked his authority to inaugurate Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, he was the one who stood tall as the President approached awkwardly and kissed Khamenei on the shoulder. Today, it is Khamenei who stumbles with hand outstretched.

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Picture of Day. OK, so Hashemi Rafsanjani showed up in the front row of the Supreme Leader's Eid-al-Fitr prayers near Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but he doesn't look too thrilled about the President, does he? Captions welcomed.

2000 GMT: The Clerics' Relatives. More on the Saturday release of the grandchildren of Ayatollah Montazeri (see 0840 GMT). They each had to post $20,000 bail as did the children of Ayatollah Mousavi-Tabrizi and Ayatollah Nazemzadeh.

1810 GMT: Stand by Your Man. In a move overshadowed by Qods Day, President Ahmadinejad has reconfirmed Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as the head of his Presidential office.

This is far more than an appointment. Given the conservative and principlist opposition that forced Ahmadinejad to withdraw Rahim-Mashai's selection as 1st Vice President, this is a symbol that the President rules within the Establishment. The reconfirmation also comes despite Rahim-Mashai's recent suspension over charges of financial misconduct.

1455 GMT: Speculation of Day - Khamenei-Rafsanjani Deal? Some Twitter-based Iranian activists have come up with the most intriguing analysis of the Khamenei speech and Hashemi Rafsanjani's attendance.

The Supreme Leader's declaration that evidence from confessions in court cannot be used against third parties is an "immunity" for Rafsanjani and his family. (Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi and other Rafsanjani relatives were prominently charged in confessions with political and financial impropriety in the initial Tehran trials.) In exchange for this, Rafsanjani showed his support for Khamenei with his presence in the front row of the audience.

I wouldn't go as far as deal but would see this as a return by the Supreme Leader to his Friday prayer speech of 19 June where he supported the Ahmadinejad election but also praised Rafsanjani and slapped down the President's pre-election allegations of corruption.

1315 GMT: Alternatively, you can fail by ignoring anybody inside Iran except the Supreme Leader. That's the choice of The Times of London, which doesn't seem to realise that the primary target of Khamenei's address was the opposition inside the country rather than "arch-foe Israel, Western powers and foreign media networks".

Thank goodness, Reuters has now put out an article recognising the Supreme Leader's linking of "foreign media" and his internal challengers.

1240 GMT: The "Western" media is on the verge of a major failure in its portrayal of Iran's internal situation. For some reason, Associated Press turned a minor extract from the Supreme Leader's speech, "What a suspect says in a court against a third party has no legitimate validity," into the main theme that the regime was retreating from post-election conflict (see 0940 GMT). This soon raced as a headline around the Internet and US broadcast outlets, who use AP as gospel to compensate for their lack of coverage, prepared to run this as a major change in the regime's position.

Only problem is that the Supreme Leader's overall message was one of confrontation with the opposition, bringing him more in line with the approach of President Ahmadinejad. He made his strongest statement in weeks linking protest with the supposed direction of a "velvet revolution" by Israel and the US (see 0950 GMT) and issued a warning --- directed first at Mehdi Karroubi --- about any claims of detainee abuse (see 0955 GMT). A glance at Fars News' coverage and that of the Islamic Republic News Agency reveals no reference to the statement regarding trials and an emphasis on the "velvet revolution" theme.

We have been in contact with CNN in the hope that the broadcaster may recognise the danger of reliance on the AP report and will take a closer look at sources that reflect the real significance of Khamenei's message. One of the five lessons of Qods Day for us was "the wanderings of the Supreme Leader"; well, he has now broken his silence and looks to be wandering into line with the Ahmadinejad Government.

1235 GMT: Holding Out. Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has continued his defiance of the Supreme Leader's declaration, announcing that Ramadan only ends this evening and that Eid al-Fitr should be on Monday.

1040 GMT: Apart from Khamenei's speech, the buzz is that Hashemi Rafsanjani and Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson Hassan made prominent appearance at Eid-al-Fitr prayers. An EA correspondent considers: "Seems like Khamenei at the least succeded in persuading them to show up for a - at least at face value - show of unity. However, what Rafsanjani's real aims and intentions are remain a total mystery. My gut feeling is that he is continuing to take part in at least part of the regime's events to provide some sort of a cloak for Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, staving off the chances of them being arrested. Needs to be seen if this will alleviate the dire conditions of those in jail though."

0955 GMT: And it worth be worthwhile to note Khamenei's implicit defense of those within the regime accused of abuses in the post-election crisis: "The media should refrain from publicizing allegations leveled by foreign media against certain individuals in the country accusing them of betrayal and other wrongdoings....This would not be acceptable."

0950 GMT: Defying Friday. The real story of the Khamenei speech is the Supreme Leader's effort to turn back any notion of challenge from the Qods Day demonstrations. He did this by linking the line on Israel/Palestine with the contention that the nation had stood against Western-led troublemakers on Friday.

Qods Day had been a “day of loud and clear shouts” against the “deadly cancer of Zionism...spreading through the invading hands of the occupiers and arrogant powers... which is gnawing into the lives of the Islamic nations”. Then the Supreme Leader, who only a few weeks ago was denying that Iran had been threatened by a "velvet revolution", took aim at the attempt at "velvet revolution":

The enemies tried to undermine the Quds Day rally, but the rally showed that the schemes of the enemies were not effective....In the past few months, Western leaders fell for their media, professional press analysts and radios and televisions and thought they could influence the Iranian nation. But you showed that they were chasing a mirage....This year, more than before, they tried to weaken the Quds Day, but the glorious Quds Day in Tehran showed the whole world the direction in which the revolution and Iran was heading. It showed that their (Western politicians) tricks, spending money and political evilness does not influence the Iranian nation.

0940 GMT: Flight from Friday. When I saw the newsflash, I thought the Supreme Leader was making a signficant effort at compromise: "Iran's Khamenei signals easing in election tension." Turns out, however, that the supposed shift is only that of an Associated Press headline writer who must be unaware of the drama and tension of Qods Day. The Supreme Leader's comment, in a speech marking the end of Ramadan, was simply a vague allusion to a possible easing of the pressure of trials: "What a suspect says in a court against a third party has no legitimate validity."

0840 GMT: Report that Mehdi and Ali Montazeri, two of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's grandchildren detained on Monday, were released Saturday.

0745 GMT: It's Not Just Tehran. Maryam at Keeping the Change has posted an overview of the Qods Day marches in Shiraz, Isfahan, Tabriz, Rasht, and Mashad. We've posted the account of one participant in the Isfahan march in a separate entry.

0630 GMT: It seems we are now in a relatively quiet phase of this crisis. Very little has come out on the Government side since Friday, possibly because Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and close aides are now focused on the President's trip to New York and speech to the United Nations General Assembly, and the oppposition has also chosen to assess the outcome of Qods Day before making its next move. Only Mehdi Karroubi's meeting with medical faculty, featuring his comments that he will press claims in court of detainee abuse the "would make the Shah look good", broke the silence.

Instead, as we noted as the end of last night, the biggest ripple was a dispute, full of symbolism, over whether Ramadan ended with the appearance of the crescent of the moon last night. Senior clerics, countering the Supreme Leader, said no. The national holiday has still been declared of course, and Eid al-Fitr will still be celebrated by many, but it will be interesting to see if the senior clerics' claim resonates with Iranian people.