Iran Snap Analysis: Playtime's Over

No doubt about it. Politics, conflict, and manoeuvring are back in Iran. After the New Year’s holiday, almost all the players were on court yesterday — the Supreme Leader, the President, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Mir Hossein Mousavi, reformist MPs.

This re-surge of politics, marked by the fight over Ahmadinejad's subsidy cut and spending proposals and the meeting of reformists with Mousavi, Rafsanjani, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami, has even caught the eye of journalists who have written little since the supposed bust of the Green Movement on 22 Bahman (11 February).

The non-Iranian media has only a limited view, however, and are scrambling for explanations: The New York Times, for example, decides that the Supreme Leader has come down strongly on the side of Ahmadinejad in the subsidy battle --- a fair hypothesis, but the "proof" comes from the declarations of the Islamic Republic News Agency and Press TV. (The Times article also takes no note of the Mousavi-Rafsanjani-Karroubi-Khatami meetings with reformists.)



What does all this mean? A proper analysis will take some time and will also need to be flexible to take account of the rush of developments, but here are some starting points:

1. This conflict has always been more than just the Green Movement v. the regime. Some coverage of 22 Bahman (11 February) fed that misleading view; the events yesterday demonstrate that we can now put away the narrative of "it all ended on that day".

2. Rafsanjani, Mousavi, and the reformists all signalled that they want to work within the framework of the Islamic Republic, and Rafsanjani in particular made it clear that there should be no challenge to the Supreme Leader. At the same time, all also stated firmly that the Government has distanced itself from the people, the marker of continuing and possibility escalating challenge to Ahmadinejad.

3. The meetings with the reformist coalition of MPs emphasised the importance of Parliament in the Iranian system. That is not just deference to those were in attendance; it is a sign that the Majlis is seen as the site of a move against the President. That in turn points to an attempt to work with the conservative "opposition within", including Larijani, in the battle on the budget and economic legislation.

4. But it's not just economics. There are a series of unresolved issues that the Parliament could take further, notably the investigation of the Government's post-election abuses.

Playtime is over.

Iran Document: Rafsanjani Meets the Reformists

From the reformist Parleman News, translated by Khordaad 88:

In continuing their New Year visits, the delegates of the coalition of reformist parties, the Imam Khomeini Line, went to see Hashemi Rafsanjani today.

Mohammad Reza Tabesh [MP from the city of Ardakan, a nephew of Mohammad Khatami , and seated to the left of Rafsanjani] said, “Although right now different issues are being discussed in the country, especially the the subsidies bill and the economic situation, we must not forget that these issues are secondary and the primary issue at hand is the stability and security of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

He continued, “We must not see further distancing of the ruling establishment and the people. And we hope that the ruling establishment will use wisdom and foresight to fill the distances [that have been created].”



Referring to Ayatollah Khomeini’s statement that “Parliament must be at the forefront” Tabesh said, “today, I think there is an absolute need for parliament to be at the head of the country’s affairs.”

It was then Hashemi Rafsanjani’s turn to put forth his views. “The disagreements that have been created in the current circumstance, must be rectified. This is only possible with the Leader at the forefront. All other forces must move in accordance with the pivotal role of the leader.”

Hashemi Rafsanjani referred to the different needs of Iran’s young population and said, “We must meet the youth’s cultural and social needs with appropriate planning. At the same time, we must act in a way such that the younger generations know of the value and worth of previous achievements. We must not talk in a way which degrades past achievements.”

He too referred to Ayatollah Khomeini’s statements about Parliament being at forefront of the country’s affairs and recalled memories of the formation of the first Parliament [after the Revolution].

The head of the Assembly of Experts continued, “when the Imam [Khomeini] said that Parliament must be at the forefront, this wasn’t a tactical or political statement, it was a foundational statement [which defined the basis of the Islamic Republic]. Because Parliament is the symbol of the people’s will and the foundation of the rule of the people and the Imam emphasized that democracy must continue through Parliament.”

Rafsanjani continued, “The Imam believed that Parliament should be at the helm, and that saving the revolution would only be possible through valuing parliament. And in the same spirit, so through [valuing] the Imam, Leader, and the Constitution. Parliament is a powerful body which has been able to bring many of the country’s laws to a conclusion.”

He referred to the negligence towards subsidies reform in the Fourth Development Plan and called this reform a very important task that would benefit the country if carried out properly. “Surgically removing subsidies will certainly have consequences, and the greater the amount [of cuts], the bigger the consequences and the shock. Carrying out this law requires a great deal of empathy, and correct management. It must not be carried out in a way to cause the discontent of the people.”

“Saving the Islamic Republic is of great importance, and in the new year, we need to create trust in the country’s political sphere.” He emphasized, “I am gravely worried to see that those who greatly care for the system are distanced [from the system]. Considering the situation in neighboring countries, if we are united, we can create an island of stability for the entire region.”

The Latest from Iran (5 April): Repression

2230 GMT: To close this evening, a photograph of reformist leader Feizollah Arab Sorkhi, temporarily released from prison today, with his family (inset).

2215 GMT: Mousavi's Statement. Back from an evening break to find a summary of Mir Hossein Mousavi's discussion with reformist members of Parliament. We'll have an analysis in the morning but here is the substance....

Mousavi advised Iranian authorities to return to models set up by Ayatollah Khomeini and base policies on “collective wisdom” to remedy the post-election crisis. Had that wisdom prevailed earlier, “we would not have witnessed such bitter incidents.”

Mousavi, as he has done before, criticised both Iranian state media and foreign media. Iran's national broadcaster was “destroying the doctrines of the Imam (Khomeini)”: “In my opinion Seda va Sima [Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting] and the foreign media have been acting like the two edges of a pair of scissors in distorting the luminous face of the Imam.”

NEW Iran Document: Jafar Panahi’s Wife on His Detention & Health
Iran Exclusive: Detained Emad Baghi in Poor Health, House Raided, Relative Beaten
Video: Obama on Iran, Health Care (2 April)
The Latest from Iran (4 April): Renewal

Mousavi also invoked Khomeini to claim the "ability of the country to pass through the crises of the time” was through direct connection of the people with the regime, the government, and the leadership. In Khomeini's time, decisions were made through “rational discussions” and the Imam “provided a basis for the presence of different factions and opinions without barring anyone’s presence”.


1745 GMT: Spin of the Day. Press TV rewrites the critical letter of Ali Larijani (see 1615 GMT) to the President:

"As the Ahmadinejad government and Parliament move to iron out the details of the subsidy reform bill, Speaker Ali Larijani said Monday lawmakers would do their utmost to cooperate with the president, asking him to do the same."

1740 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Kalemeh reports that the release from detention of senior reformist Feizollah Arab-Sorkhi (see 1340 GMT) is for only five days and comes with a bail of $1 million.

1615 GMT: Larijani Responds to Ahmadinejad. We noted earlier today that the President had made an appeal, in a letter to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, for revision of the legislation on subsidy reform and spending.

Larijani has now replied sharply. In his letter, he defends the approach of the Majlis and criticises Ahmadinejad's speeches and request for a public referendum. He accuses the President of intervention and interference in the Majlis' affairs.

Larijani aligns himself with the Supreme Leader's recent advice for more co-operation between the Majlis and the Government. However, he asks Ahmadinejad to answer two questions:

Firstly, what is the Government forecast for the rate of inflation in each of the two scenarios of an extra $20 billion spending (The Parliament-approved bill) and an extra $40 billion"(Ahmadinejad's demand)?

Secondly, what would be the Government's estimate of economic growth in each of the scenarios?

1600 GMT: Nowruz Snub for Ahmadinejad? According to Khabar Online, only one-third of the Majlis' members attended the Norouz meeting held with the President.

Ali Larijani (head of Parliament), Mohammad Hassan Abutorabi Fard (First Deputy Speaker) , Mohammad Reza Bahonar (Second Deputy Speaker), Ahmad Tavakoli (Director of Majlis Research Center), Elyas Naderi, and a number of other well-known MPs are amongst those who did not attend the meeting.

1340 GMT: Arab-Sorkhi Released. EA has learned from a reliable source that Feizollah Arab-Sorkhi, the leading member of the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party detained since last summer, has come out of Evin Prison.

1320 GMT: Mahmoud's Nuclear. Oh, good, this should lead to a lot of heated press speculation. The head of Iran's atomic energy programme, Ali Akbar Salehi, has foreshadowed Iran's revelation of a "series of scientific achievements" on National Nuclear Technology Day: "The President [Mahmoud Ahmadinejad] will have good news for the nation on Friday."

1245 GMT: Economy Watch. Kalemeh that 150 workers of a textile factory in Ardebil province in northwestern Iran gathered in front of the governor's office of the governor to protest unpaid wages for the last seven months.

The demonstration is politically significant because the factory was launched as part of the Ahmadinejad economy agenda in his re-election campaign. It is reported that the factory has cut its workforce by 85%.

1240 GMT: So Much for Development. Mizan Khabar reports that the Industrial Development and Renovation Organisation has prohibited the use of laptops, external drives, and other hardware by its managers on their foreign trips.

1235 GMT: Nuke Chatter. The Iranian Foreign Ministry has repeated its current line, without any sign of compromise, "Iran is still ready to negotiate a solution to its nuclear stand-off with the West, but only on the condition that foreign powers agree to a fuel swap on Iranian territory. "

1140 GMT: President's Subsidy Appeal. The Iranian Labor News Agency reports another intervention from President Ahmadinejad on the issue of subsidy reform and spending. He has written Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani to claim problems in the implementation of the Parliament-approved proposal and to call on the Majlis to help the Government.

1130 GMT: The Big Repression Question. An EA correspondent gets to the politics of the recent nes of detentions, in particular the contest with former President Hashemi Rafsanjani:

The next big question is whether all the high-profile political prisoners will go back to Evin, given that they were let out for the Nowrouz holidays and we are way past the end of them. In the case of Marashi, Rafsanjani's close associate, it seems that his period of liberty has come to an end.

Hassan Lahuti, Faezeh Hashemi's son and Rafsanjani's grandson, will have to face court proceedings and will therefore be barred from returning to London. The court proceedings of Rafsanjani's children, Mehdi and Faezeh Hashemi, are also going to happen within the near future, according to Rah-e-Sabz.

1035 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The authorities have not only put Hossein Marashi, ally of Hashemi Rafsanjani and a former Vice President, in jail; it appears they have also taken his blog off-line. A cached copy of Marashi's last entry, written on Sunday just before he was returned to prison, seems to be available.

(An EA correspondent reports that he can access Marashi's latest post, but I am still having no luck. In it, Marashi confirms his return to jail and says that he does not see the new period as that of a prisoner of the Islamic Republic but rather as a new duty and experience.)

1030 GMT: Economy Watch. The Central Bank of Iran claims that the annual inflation rate has declined sharply to 10.8% for the year ending 20 March 2010. This compares to 25.4% for the previous 12 months.

0900 GMT: One to Watch. Parleman News reports that delegates of the coalition of reformist parties, the Imam Khomeini Line, are in meetings with Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, Hashemi Rafsanjani, and Mohammad Khatami. Details are promised soon.

0830 GMT: Journalist and filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad, the imprisoned journalist and filmmaker, will appear in court today, offering his family the first chance to see him during his 107-day detention. Nourizad was reportedly not allowed to make a phone call for more than three months because of his refusal to accept interrogators’ demands and conditions. In the only call allowed to his famtily, he assured, “I am standing firm with an iron will.”

0545 GMT: One of the striking features of the debate over Iran's legal and political situation on Race for Iran, the blog of Flynt and Hillary Leverett, is the near-total refusal of regime and Ahmadinejad advocates --- including the Leveretts --- to discuss or even acknowledge the Government's detention and treatment of opponents. (That is a major reason why they focus on the question of the vote count in the Presidential election; it allows them to shut away the less savoury developments of the next 9 1/2 months.)

Occasionally, there will be a repetition of the regime line that the abuses at Kahrizak Prison, including the three deaths, were recognised by the Supreme Leader, but this is followed by the implication that this resolved any difficulties.

So this morning we begin with more news of political prisoners. Yesterday, we reported from an absolutely reliable source on the poor health of detained journalist Emad Baghi and the harassment of his family. In a few minutes, we'll post a disturbing message from the wife of imprisoned film director Jafar Panahi on concerns for his well-being.

In an audio interview with the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, the son of journalist Isa Saharkhiz says his father’s condition has deteriorated since a hunger strike in March. Mehdi Saharkhiz said that his father has lost 20 kilogrammes (45 pounds) over the past few months and that solitary confinement and the harsh prison environment have threatened his health.

Pedestrian reports on a bit of good news with the release of student Sourena Hashemi after more than three months but adds this context: there is no word of the fate of his friend Alireza Firouzi, who was detained at the same time.

One of the reasons for Hashemi's arrest was his appearance in a campaign video for Mehdi Karroubi. All the students involved were expelled or suspended from their universities.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8M-Q_gyPkw0&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

Of course, these are events which are not highlighted by the Iranian state. Yesterday, for example,there was a focus on the declaration of Iran's top nuclear negotiatior, Saeed Jalili, after his trip to Beijing that there were increasingly close relations between Iran and China. (More importantly, no word from Jalili about the substance of the negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme and threatened international sanctions.) Look also for big play of the story that China and India will attend Tehran's conference on nuclear disarmament on 17-18 April.

And many in the Western media can be distracted. A lot of the US press corps is being taken along with the book promotion of a "former Revolutionary Guard turned CIA agent", Reza Kahlili (a pseudonym), a story which could be true but is more than a decade old. Still, that doesn't stand in the way of headlines for Kahlili's headline assertion, "Iran will be a nuclear-armed state in the very near future....The only way to stop that from happening may be to attack Iran now, before it gets a nuclear weapon."

Top prize for scary distraction, however, goes to the  Financial Times which, with almost no support, announces, "US Fears Iran Could Use Powerboat as a Weapon."

Afghanistan Update: US Military Reverses Position, Admits Killing Three Women

UPDATE 1255 GMT: The International Security Assistance Force has posted its official statement "that international forces were responsible for the deaths of three women who were in the same compound where two men were killed by the joint Afghan-international patrol searching for a Taliban insurgent".

The statement concludes, "'We regret any confusion caused by the initial statements and are committed to improving our coordination and understanding of Afghan culture and customs,' said [Brigadier General Eric] Tremblay.



ISAF officials will discuss the results of the investigation with the family of the individuals killed, apologize for what happened, and will provide compensation in accordance with local customs."

On 13 March, we carried a report from Jerome Starkey of The Times of London, “A night raid carried out by US and Afghan gunmen led to the deaths of two pregnant women, a teenage girl and two local officials in an atrocity which Nato then tried to cover up." We also carried the denial of the International Security Assistance Force: the report was "categorically false".

We took some heat for carrying the reports of killings of civilians by the US military. One reader commented, "This story is blatantly biased and filled with a bunch of ‘allegations’....Good luck with all that ‘Death to America’ bullshit."

This just in from The New York Times, picking up on Starkey's latest report (but not crediting him by name):

After initially denying involvement or any cover-up in the deaths of three Afghan women during a badly bungled American Special Operations assault in February, the American-led military command in Kabul admitted late on Sunday that its forces had, in fact, killed the women during the nighttime raid.


The admission immediately raised questions about what really happened during the Feb. 12 operation — and what falsehoods followed — including a new report that Special Operations forces dug bullets out of the bodies of the women to hide the true nature of their deaths.

A NATO official also said Sunday in an interview that an Afghan-led team of investigators had found signs of evidence tampering at the scene, including the removal of bullets from walls near where the women were killed. A senior NATO official later denied on Monday that any evidence tampering occurred.

Starkey's article offers more detail:

A senior Afghan official involved in a government investigation told The Times: “I think the special forces lied to [commander of US forces, General Stanley] McChrystal.”

“Why did the special forces collect their bullets from the area?” the official said. “They washed the area of the injuries with alcohol and brought out the bullets from the dead bodies. The bodies showed there were big holes.”

The official, who asked not to be named until the results of the investigation have been made public, said that the assault force sealed off the compound from 4am, when the raid started, to 11am, when Afghan officials from Gardez were finally allowed access to the house.

At least 11 bullets were fired during the raid, the investigator said, and the shooting was carried out by two American gunmen positioned on the roof of the compound. Only seven bullets were recovered from the scene.

“I asked McChrystal, ‘why did the Americans clean some of the bullets from the area?’ They don’t have the right to do that,” the official said.

Haji Sharabuddin, the head of the family who were attacked, toldThe Times last month that troops removed bullets from his relatives’ bodies, but his claims were impossible to verify. The hallway where four of the five victims were killed had been repainted and at least two bullet holes had been plastered over.

UPDATED Iraq: The Latest on Sunday's Embassy Bombings

UPDATE 5 APRIL: Iraq is on high alert, with the toll now at 42 and "hundreds injured". No one has claimed responsibility, although Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari has claimed that the attacks bear the hallmarks of Al Qa'eda in Iraq.

UPDATE 1630 GMT: Iraqi officials are now saying 30 dead and 224 injured. Among those killed are the Egyptian mission's Iraqi head of security and an Iraqi guard at the German embassy.

Iraq Latest: Moqtada al-Sadr Makes A Move

Beyond the three attacks, security forces stopped a bomb-laden car in Masbah, central Baghdad.


UPDATE 1055 GMT: The BBC has a slightly different report, saying that one of the two Mansour bombs was near the Syrian Embassy and --- perhaps more significantly --- the offices of the Iraqi National Congress, headed by controversial politician Ahmad Chalabi.

UPDATE 1050 GMT: An Interior Ministry source says the toll is now 30 dead and 168 wounded.

Three suicide car bombers struck this morning near foreign embassies. Two of the bombs were in the Mansour district near the German and Egyptian Embassies. The third was in central Baghdad near the Iranian diplomatic post.

The three explosions were co-ordinated, beginning at 11:10 a.m. local time (0810 GMT). Roads in the capital have been blocked off.

Latest reports of casualties are between 20 and 30 killed with 55 injured. The figure is almost certain to rise.

Earlier on Sunday, a roadside bomb targeting a police patrol in Baghdad wounded five officers and five civilians. Two mortar rounds landed in the Green Zone, the area of government offices and the US Embassy compound.

Sunday's bombs follow an attack early Saturday that killed 25 people, including members of Iraqi security forces and Sunni "Awakening Councils" allied with the US military, in the village of Albusaifi just to the south of Baghdad. Mortars were fired on the heavily fortified Green Zone later in the day.