The Latest from Iran (22 August): A Pause for Ramadan?

The Latest from Iran (23 August): An Anti-Ahmadinejad Bloc?

Iran's Most Wanted: Defense Minister Vahidi and the Interpol Warrant
The Latest from Iran (21 August): Political Battles
Video: The Sohrab Protests (20 August)

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2150 GMT: Before shutting down for the night, one more foreshadowing of our analysis tomorrow on "The Anti-Ahmadinejad Compromise". An EA correspondent offers further evidence. Mir Hossein Mousavi, in a meeting at the house of Dr. Mohsen Mirdamadi (who has subsequently been arrested) with the families of some of the detainee, said, "Principalists that have a conscience are separating themselves from the power-hungry fraction."

2130 GMT: Rafsanjani - We Told You So. A few hours after declaring that Rafsanjani was "closing ranks" with the Supreme Leader, the National Iranian American Council has discovered what we knew all along: Rafsanjani and his party are maintaining their flexibility, especially with their challenge to President Ahmadinejad. The NIAC reveals from the Iranian site Javan-e Farda that Rafsanjani's party is backing Mehdi Karroubi's position on detainees (which we picked up from Rafsanjani's speech today --- see 1715 GMT):

The Executives of Construction has released a statement announcing full support of Mehdi Karroubi’s position on the harassment issue. “Karroubi’s bravery, courage, and his compassionate approach in rooting out the current corruption in the country’s security and judicial apparatuses, is not only worthy of attention and congratulations, but has brought about an invasion of repeated attacks by various people and groups in the name of ‘defending the system.’ These behaviors serve as evidence of the ridiculousness of trying to combat reality.”

1715 GMT: The Anti-Ahmadinejad Compromise. After an unexpectedly lively Saturday afternoon, tomorrow's analysis (which in fact is what we've been projecting for weeks) is shaping up: there is a convergence of disparate forces agreeing on the need to curb the President's authority. In part, that comes from a closer consideration of Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement (which, apart from its declaration of loyalty to the Supreme Leader, is actually pretty close to the recent statements of Mehdi Karroubi). In part, it comes from news such as this....

The "conservative" newspaper Jomhori Eslami has declared, "The abuse of  prisoners is undeniable," citing the Supreme Leader's closure of Kahrizak detention center. Furthermore, "bringing up issues such as velvet revolution" are "fanciful fairy
tales" that must not be repeated, since "these claims have no effect other than providing a service to Iran's enemies by implying that the USA is very strong and has a very strong influence upon Iranian internal affairs".

The newspaper suggests that both "reformist" and "conservative" blocs "must accept mistakes they have made before and after the election, as accepting these realities is a step towards solving the existing problems".

1650 GMT: Just In Case You Were Wondering What the Revolutionary Guard Would Say (Because You Had Been Asleep for Weeks). Commander Mohammad Ali Jafari, talking to Basij forces, "revealed" that foreign elements were behind the post-election unrest.

1645 GMT: And yet another reason. Parleman News has posted a summary of Rafsanjani's statement: the support for the Supreme Leader is in conjunction with a call for all to uphold the Constitution and follow guidelines in areas such as detentions. Violators should be punished.

1630 GMT: Another reason why Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement at the Expediency Council today should not be seen as a surrender (1530 and 1600 GMT): President Ahmadinejad was not at the meeting.

1620 GMT: The Regime Piles on Pressure? Our concern at a possible step-up in detentions of "reformists" (1245 and 1310 GMT) appears to be borne out. Mohammad Maleki, the 76-year-old former Dean of Tehran University, has been arrested.

1610 GMT: Oh, Please. Not even Press TV is buying this Government line, which comes out after reports noting that the nominee for Minister of Defense, Ahmad Vahidi, is wanted by Interpol for alleged involvement in a 1994 bombing of a Jewish centre in Buenos Aires (see separate story). Note the scare quotes in this opening paragraph:

Iran says the international reaction to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's nominee for defense minister is a “Zionist plot” to undermine the new Iranian administration.

“[Ahmad] Vahidi was a deputy defense minister and this is a very senior political position,” Ahmadinejad's press adviser, Ali-Akbar Javanfekr, told AFP [Agence France Presse]. "Therefore it seems that this is a new trick being planned and is basically a Zionist plot."

1600 GMT: In case you're wondering after our previous entry, Rafsanjani's website offers no mention, let alone commentary, on the former President's statement at the Expediency Council.

1530 GMT: Hashemi's Surrender to Khamenei? Not quite.

The National Iranian American Council is making a big deal of Rafsanjani's opening statement at the Expediency Council today, claiming, "it now appears that he is closing ranks with supreme leader Ali Khamenei". It based the analysis on an Agence France Presse reports, quoting from Iranian news agencies, "Powerful cleric Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani urged Iran’s warring political groups on Saturday to follow the orders of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for ending the present political turmoil."

Hmm....The actual statement from Rafsanjani, according to the story, was “the current situation needs everyone to observe the leader’s decrees and advice". That's both very general and far from out-of-line with his stance since 12 June. The former Rafsanjani has never come out in direct opposition to Khamenei; any fight he has is with President Ahmadinejad.

Especially given the setting, a gathering of one of Iran's most powerful bodies, Rafsanjani's statement is simply that he is not taking apart the system of ultimate clerical authority. It remains to be seen where he takes his next step against the political leaders in that system. One could just as easily say, "Rafsanjani is hoping supreme leader Ali Khamenei closes ranks with him."

1325 GMT: Another Symbol for the Movement? We are getting a lot of correspondence from readers today about the testimony of a 15-year-old boy, summarised in The Times of London today, who claims he was raped in detention "in a large provincial city".

As journalism, there has to be some caution about the story as it is offered anonymously --- The Times uses a pseudonym for the teenager --- and cannot be verified. As politics (and, more importantly, as a story of humanity and inhumanity), it has to be recognised. In the words of The Times, "Reza is living proof of the charges levelled by Mehdi Karoubi."

1310 GMT: Very Disturbing Signals. Reports are coming in via Twitter of political activists, including Mehdi Karroubi's son, being arrested and summoned to the Government workers' court. We are seeking confirmation.1300 GMT: Be Our Friend. If I were a cynic (which I am not), I would say the Ahmadinejad Government had motives beyond economic co-operation in this development:

Iran plans to offer the majority of stake in a liquefied natural gas (LNG) production project to European companies, says a top Iranian energy official.

Three European companies have voiced interest in buying 80 percent of Iran LNG project, Mehr news agency quoted Ali Kheirandish, the head of Iran LNG Company, as saying on Saturday.

I presume none of these companies are from "foreign countries" accused by other Iranian officials of fomenting velvet revolution.

1250 GMT: Alireza Beheshti, Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor, has extended Mousavi's recent comments about Election Day and its immediate aftermath. He claims that Mousavi’s campaign had meetings with the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, and the judiciary to resolve the issues from the Presidential vote, but there were no will to do so. According to Beheshti, the campaign had reports that Mousavi was ahead in the vote but had signals that there might be manipulation of the ballots as early as 2 p.m. on Election Day.

Beheshti also told Etemaad that he and his family are ready to be arrested.

1245 GMT: A reliable Twitter source says Ebrahim Mehtari of the Mojahedin-Enghelab political party and Campaign 88 has been arrested.

1010 GMT: Take Your Book and Go Home. Authorities have responded to Ayatollah Sane'i's scathing video criticism of the regime by barring his religious monograph from the 17th Koran Exhibition in Tehran.

1000 GMT: Judicial Manoeuvres. The head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, is still looking for a replacement for Tehran's Chief Prosecutor, Saeed Mortazavi.

0900 GMT: Battle of the Clerics. Parleman News follows up the story of the contrasting Friday prayer sermons in Tehran and Qom (see yesterday's updates and 0530 GMT), comparing the hard-line address of Ayatollah Jannati and the criticism of the regime by Ayatollah Amini.

0530 GMT: The holy month of Ramadan, in which Muslims abstain from eating, drinking, and smoking from dawn until dusk, has begun. The Supreme Leader's Office announced the start, based on expert sightings of the new month's moon. So have a quartet of Ayatollahs who have challenged the Government: Montazeri, Sanei, Bayat-Zanjani and Sistani.

Unsurprisingly, the day has begun quietly. Interestingly, the ripples of political challenge are on Press TV's website. It reports that "principlist" MP Ali Motahari, whose public criticism of the Ahmadinjead Administration emerged last month, has called the President's proposed Cabinet "feeble and not proportional to the country's capacities". His far-from-subtle attack claimed Ahmadinejad had picked Ministers for loyalty, not expertise: "Dependent cabinet members would deprive the government of reflective and clear-sighted staff....The President wants to control and rule sensitive ministries like the Intelligence, Interior, Oil, (Islamic) Guidance, and Foreign Affairs, therefore he has chosen dependent nominees to the posts."

The other story that continues to resonate on the website is the post from last night, "In Iran, arrest of opposition leaders is hot topic". The analysis is far from a condemnation of the regime: it features Ayatollah Jannati's call in Friday prayers for the detention of "ringleaders" of post-election demonstrations". At the same time, it frames those protests as legitimate, effectively questioning if not undermining Jannati's demand:

The re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president on June 12 sparked an outpouring of anger and contempt among Iranians and massive demonstrations were staged by supporters of defeated presidential candidates Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi who claim the vote was "fraudulent".

The Latest from Iran (20 August): Grinding to a Halt

The Latest from Iran (19 August): Challenges in Parliament and from Prisons

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1810 GMT: Recognise Us Because We're Really Nice. There have been signs this week that the Ahmadinejad Government would be more flexible in its position on the nuclear programme, and today this came from the Associated Press, via unnamed diplomats:

Iran has lifted a ban and allowed UN inspectors to visit a nearly-completed nuclear reactor. Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency visited the reactor in Arak after a year-long ban...Iran agreed last week to expand uranium enrichment monitoring of the site.

1735 GMT: Ahmadinejad and the IRGC Factor. As we wait for the fallout from the President's televised speech on his Cabinet selections, here's how American anlaysts get it right. And wrong.

The appointment of Ahmad Vahidi as Minister of Defense has been noticed because he was commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps in the late 1980s/early 1990s. So, it is said, Vahidi's appointment indicates a consolidation of the relationship between the President and the IRGC in the face of opposition not only from "reformists" but from "conservative" and "principlist" elements.

Right.

And, the analysts continue, this indicates that Ahmadinejad plans to continue and maybe accelerate Iran's material support for pro-Iranian parties and militias in the Middle East.

Wrong.

This, of course, may be a consequence over time of Vahidi's appointment but to assert --- without any evidence --- that the external dimension is more important than the President's manoeuvres in an internal crisis smacks of a view that revolves around Washington, rather than Tehran.

1725 GMT: Worst. Claim. Ever: It's All Hillary's Fault. Iran's police chief of police Esmail Ahmadi-Moqaddam has said that the "confessions" of political detainees must be authentic because their mastermind, Hillary Clinton, has openly revealed their plans: "Some say that the police has extracted confessions by force, but I tell them: No-one has extracted confession out of Mrs. Clinton, yet she reveals all issues freely."

While Ahmadi-Moqaddam's statement should be called out as a crass cover-up of the state's treatment of prisoners, it does point to the lack of wisdom in Clinton's posturing --- motivated primarily to counter domestic charges that the Administration had stood back from post-election events --- when she told CNN earlier this month that the US Government did much "behind the scenes" for Iranian protesters.

1450 GMT: Reuters has now picked up on the problems for Ahmadinejad's Ministerial appointments in Parliament, adding this quote from Speaker Ali Larijani on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting: "Those nominated by the president for government posts must have sufficient expertise and experience, otherwise a great deal of the country's energy would be wasted."

1410 GMT: Creating Some Political Space? Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, speaking to the Islamic Society of Engineers, has declared that the primary duty of Government is "justice so human beings may perfect themselves" and that it was essential for people to have "economic, cultural, and political mobility".

1340 GMT: Tonight's the Night. After the stop-start process of naming his Cabinet, President Ahmadinejad takes to the national airwaves in a broadcast just after the 9 p.m. news. He may do so with a bit of nervousness: protestors are planning to drown out the President with "Allahu Akhbars", and Ahmadinejad's previous broadcast didn't go so well. Remember his defeat at the hands of the Giant Moth? (If you missed it, here's the video.)

1150 GMT: Another Shot at Ahmadinejad. Jomhoori Eslami reports that an Iranian court has temporarily suspended former First Vice President and current Presdential Chief of Staff Esfandiari Rahim-Mashai for two months because of charges of financial misconduct.

1140 GMT: The Fight Begins? The Deputy Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, has warned that at leave five of President Ahmadinejad's choices for Ministers may not receive votes of confidence. Reuters has English-language summary of report.

1100 GMT: No Newspaper is Safe. Even the hard-line "conservative" Kayhan could be banned from newsstands. According to the Iranian Labor News Agency, the same court that banned Etemade Melli has ordered Saeed Mortazavi, the Tehran Prosecutor General, to halt the publication of Kayhan, because of the failure of its editor, Hossein Shariatmadari, to answer two court summons. Shariatmadari was taken to court by Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor Alireza Beheshti and others over the "publication of repeated lies" against the candidate.

0720 GMT: The English-language version of the Iran Parliament website has just released the names of the 18 ministers whom it says were submitted by President Ahmadinejad to the Parliament "on Wednesday". There are no surprises amongst the names, which we revealed in yesterday's updates.

0620 GMT: Reading Another Change. We reported yesterday that the new head of Iran's judiciary, Saeed Larijani, had given a clear thumb-in-the-eye to the President with the appointment of Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, the Minister of Intelligence fired by Ahmadinejad, as Iran's Prosecutor General.

Larijani is also replacing Tehran's chief prosecutor, Saeed Mortazavi, with Morteza Bakhtiari, the former head of Iran's prison service and former Governor of Isfahan. The timing is a bit curious, since Mortazavi was seen as the legal force behind the prosecution of post-election political detainees, and we are in the middle of the Tehran trials.

So is Larijani asserting his authority against the President? Or is the simple explanatio n that Mortazavi is moving to a post in Ahmadinejad's executive? And will there be an impact, short-term or long-term, on detentions and prosecutions?

0540 GMT: Meanwhile, a foreign-policy breakthrough for the President and his Government received surprisingly little attention. Syrian President Bashir al-Assad was in Tehran for a chat.

The cover story was that Assad came to Iran to broker the release of French national Clotilde Reiss, arrested and still awaiting trial on bail. Iranian state media preferred the image of election legitimacy, quoting Assad's greeting to Ahmadinejad, “I’ve come here today to personally convey my warm congratulations to you and the Iranian nation. I believe what happened in Iran was an important development and a great lesson to foreigners."

The overriding significance, however, is in the Associated Press headline, "Iran’s supreme leader reinforces Syria alliance." Ahmadinejad, who has been ostracised internationally since his trip to Moscow just after the election, will get a symbolic boost; however, it is unclear whether Assad was reinforcing the alliance or holding it in suspension. Before 12 June, it appeared that the Tehran-Damascus relationship was an important influence on questions from the Israel-Palestine dynamic (and the in-fighting within the Palestinian leadership), the situation in Lebanon, and the wider state of play (political and economic) between Iran and Arab States. How much of it that continues while Ahmadinejad's real rather than symbolic legitimacy is still doubted?

0500 GMT: We took a break last night to recharge our batteries and return this morning not to news but to two non-events.

The first non-event was President Ahmadinejad's to formally submit his Ministerial nominations to Parliament by yesterday's deadline. In the morning, all appeared to be almost complete: Mehr News was reporting three names remained to be confirmed, and then Tabnak said only one, the Minister of Justice. At 1:22 p.m. local time, a few hours before the deadline, the English-language site of the Parliament recapped the news.

And then nothing. There was a clue that all was not well when the President's Wednesday night national broadcast was postponed for 24 hours but, otherwise, updates stopped as the deadline came and went. (Press TV's website is still stuck on its Wednesday morning headline, "More Ahmadinejad cabinet nominees revealed".) Then, just after 10 p.m., the Farsi-language version of the Parliament website reported simply, "The letter of the President still has not come."

No one is offering the reason for the delay, but the obvious speculation is that some of the names in the list leaked by the media were unacceptable to members of Parliament. And so we enter today, ready to analyse but with no way forward yet on the questions: will Ahmadinejad make concessions and change some of his selections? Will there be any punishment for his failure to meet the deadline? Will any high-ranking "conservative" or "principlist" MPs come out publicly against the President?

However, it is the other non-event, largely missed by media, which is occupying us this morning. Yesterday the Executive Committee of the Assembly of Experts postponed the next meeting of the Assembly, which was due in about 10-12 days. Our question from yesterday's update, "Who pushed for the delay?", is still unanswered. To get an idea of the stakes involved in this answer, consider the make-up of the Executive Committee: Hashemi Rafsanjani aligned against Ahmadinejead supporters Hashemi Shahroudi (former Head of Judiciary), Mohammad Yazdi (Rafsanjani's foe within the Assembly), Ghorban Ali Dorri Najafabadi (Prosecutor General), and Ahmad Khatami (the hard-line temporary leader of Friday prayers in Tehran).

An EA correspondent offers this assessment, leading to an important but so far overlooked point:

The excuse that the Assembly meeting was delayed because of Ramadan [which starts on Saturday] appears as exactly that, an excuse and nothing more. Parliament will debate and possibly block Ahmadinejad's ministerial nominees well into Ramadan, Government will carry on business, and I am sure the trials will not go into recess for a month.

So what seems to be the case here is someone simply unwilling to have the session happen so soon. The latest letters sent by the former MPs and the Qom ulama [clerics] might have precipitated the case. They either blew the lid off Rafsanjani's machinations or persuaded the Supreme Leader to force a postponement in order to work on the Assembly members and make sure they don't spell trouble for him. At any rate, it just adds to all the shocks that have hit the orderly functioning of state institutions after June 12.

Amidst all the demonstrations, the detentions and trials, and the political machinations, the Iranian Government is effectively suspended. And the longer that situation persists, the more the question emerges: when is there a breaking point, not of showdown in the streets or in the Parliament, but in day-to-day life?

The Latest from Iran (17 August): Waiting for the Next Manoeuvre

NEW Video: Ayatollah Sane'i's Criticism (12 August)
NEW Video: When Hashemi Met Ahmadi (17 August)
Questions for the “Green Path of Hope” and for the Government
Iran: “Beloved and Popular” Mr Ahmadinejad Wants to See You in New York!

The Latest from Iran (16 August): New Challenge to Khamenei?

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2105 GMT: Jomhoori Eslami has published a statement from 120 physicians and faculty members. After condemning the harsh and savage treatment of protesters, they assert, "It is imperative that, when the credentials of individuals aspiring to high office is being reviewed, their mental health should also be reviewed by a knowledgeable committee that the people can trust".

2100 GMT: Amir Mohsen Mohammadi, student and human rights activist, has been released from detention on $150,000 bail. Mohammadi had been detained since 14 June.

1945 GMT: Our Top Tribute to Journalism. Earlier today (0930 GMT) we awarded the Gold Medal for Dumbest Western Image for #IranElection to Time magazine's "Will Iran's 'Kennedys' Challenge Ahmadinejad?"

Who, you may ask, was the previous winner? Reza Sayah of CNN for his profile of Zahra Rahnavard, Mir Hossein Mousavi's wife, "a woman some [i.e., Reza Sayah of CNN] are calling Iran's Michelle Obama".

1920 GMT: The sharp-eyed Josh Shahryar noted that, in its report on Sunday's third Tehran trial, Press TV's website referred to "Iran's disputed Presidential vote", the first time that the qualifier "disputed" had appeared in state media. So today's brief item on clashes outside the offices of Etemade Melli further raised an eyebrow: "All gatherings have been banned in a crackdown on mass protests that erupted after the disputed election of 12 June.

1840 GMT: 48 Hours to Go. Meanwhile, President Ahmadinejad is getting warning signals about those Cabinet choices. Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the Chairman of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, has said, “The Majlis [Parliament] expects the president to select ministers carefully.” Deputy Speaker Mohammad-Reza Bahonar gave Ahmadinejad a wrist-slap for Sunday's televised announcement of six proposed ministers, presented without any information to Parliament, “This time the president introduced some of the nominees directly through media which is unprecedented."

1830 GMT: As President Ahmadinejad prepares to propose his Cabinet, the Supreme Leader is moving his own pieces on the political chessboard. He has appointed Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi, who just stepped down as head of Iran's judiciary, to both the Expediency Council and the Guardian Council.

1715 GMT: The spokesman of Mehdi Karroubi's party Etemade Melli has told Saham News that judicial officials will meet tomorrow with the editor-in-chief of Etemade Melli newspaper to discuss outstanding issues. The spokesman stated that there is a high probability that, after the conclusion of this meeting, Etemade Melli will resume publication.

1650 GMT: Peykairan reports that 15 people were arrested, two women beaten, and a bus attacked in clashes in 7 Tir Square.

1605 GMT: Read This Signal. Press TV English highlights Hashemi Rafsanjani's speech at the inauguration of Mohammad Sadegh Larijani today:

"In case of delivering fair verdicts, the society will have a sense of security and no one will feel helpless in asserting his violated rights," said the head of the Assembly of Experts.

Hashemi-Rafsanjani warned that if the nation feels troubled by the judicial treatment of detainees "the society will descent into chaos."

That would have been hard enough for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to hear (except, according to some reports, he walked out before the end of the speech). But how about this? Press TV, a state media outlet, headlines the account to pin the blame on the Government: "In Iran, Rafsanjani links 'Unjust' Verdicts to Chaos."

1500 GMT: Very reliable sources have confirmed to EA that the suspension of Etemade Melli "until further notice", reported by Iranian Students News Agency earlier today, is true. The communique from the Culture Ministry rescinds the publishing licence of Etemade Melli due to its "repeated publication" of "illegal" articles that have produced "many complaints".

1344 GMT: Associated Press, from Iranian state television, is reporting the following statement from Mohammad Sadegh Larijani at his inauguration ceremony as head of Iran's judiciary: "Nobody should dare ... to violate rights or security of citizens. I announce that I will not forgive anybody in this regard and violators will be put on trial."

1340 GMT: Reliable Twitter source says journalist Kaveh Mozaffari will be released from detention today. Mozaffari was arrested on 9 July, the day of the 18 Tir demonstrations.

1325 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz claims that, despite the initial ban on its publication (later denied by Tehran's chief prosecutor, who said that it was just "printing problems"), Etemade Melli newspaper did appear today.

1320 GMT: Reuters reports, "Up to 60 opposition supporters chanted 'Death to the Dictator' Monday near the building of a reformist newspaper....Police at the scene in downtown Tehran prevented the demonstrators from gathering in front of the offices of the Etemad-e Melli newspaper of leading reformist Mehdi Karoubi, the witness said."

1310 GMT: Twitter filled with unconfirmed reports of clashes in front of offices of Etemade Melli, with Basiji militia allegedly attacking demonstrators. Other reports that protestors are moving towards 7 Tir Square.

1220 GMT: We have posted, in a separate entry, the video of the encounter between Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hashemi Rafsanjani at today's inauguration of Mohammad Sadegh Larijani as head of Iran's judiciary. An EA correspondent comments, "Have to say that Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad warmth is slightly unnerving."

1130 GMT: A Very Interesting Development. According to the Iranian Labour News Agency, Hashemi Rafsanjani is taking part in the inauguration ceremony for Sadegh Larijani. Other people attending are President Ahmadinejad, former Revolutionary Guard chief Rahim Safavi, Ali Akbar Nateq Nouri, Speaker of Palriament Ali Larijani, Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi, and Guardian Council spokesman Abbas Ali Khadkhodai.

One EA correspondent asks, "Is Rafsanjani breaking ranks? He surely looks like fish out of the water in this midst." Or is Rafsanjani trying to build up his political base by showing that, amidst the tensions and conflicts with the President, he can still work with other Establishment figures. Or, to put the issue narrowly, is Sadegh Larijani's appointment so important for Rafsanjani that his public support outweighs his association with those he might consider as political enemies?

1045 GMT: A very slow news morning, punctuated only by this Twitter chatter: "Sea of Green will gather 4pm TODAY (Mordad 26/August 17) Karimkhan St". Etemade Melli party website, connected with Mehdi Karroubi, continues to feature headline that gathering for today in front of Etemade Melli newspaper has been called off.

0930 GMT: Possibly the Dumbest Headline of This Crisis. Congratulations, Time magazine: "Will Iran's 'Kennedys' Challenge Ahmadinejad?" This attempt to give the Larijani brothers a "Western" makeover continues in the opening paragraph:

The brothers Larijani — often referred to as the Kennedys of Iran — are emerging as a powerful counterweight to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from within the conservative camp. And unlike other Ahmadinejad rivals, the Larijanis are fully endorsed by Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatullah Ali Khamenei.

Several problems with that political "analysis" spring to mind. Even a passing look at our analyses over the last week of the manoeuvres within the Iranian establishment --- Parliament, the judiciary, the Ministry of Intelligence, the Supreme Leader, the President, the Revolutionary Guard, the clerics of Qom --- should offer a complex situation that goes beyond Larijanis in the Blue Corner, with the Supreme Leader as their towelman, and Mahmoud in the Red Corner.

For now, however, we ask readers, especially in Iran: do you know of any reference inside the country to the Larijanis as "the Kennedys"?

0715 GMT: Might as well begin today's updates with a chuckle. The chief prosecutor of Tehran, Saeed Mortazavi, has denied that last night's closure of the Etemade Melli newspaper, associated with Mehdi Karroubi (pictured), was because of a Government order: "Etemade Melli has not been shut down....[The paper] was not distributed on Monday following problems in its printing-office."

According to Mehdi Karroubi's son, Hossein, the paper was ordered to halt its presses after publishing a letter from Mehdi Karroubi responding to "insults" against him over his allegations of abuse of detainees.

0710 GMT:  A quiet start to the morning so we've posted an analysis which we hope will be both informative and provocative, "Question for the 'Green Path of Hope' and for the Government".

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The Latest from Iran (15 August): Battles Within the Establishment

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2200 GMT: Two late-night breaking stories. The first is the temporary ban on Etemade Melli newspaper after its publication of a letter from Mehdi Karroubi.

The second story is potentially bigger. Press TV's website reports that former President Mohammad Khatami met former members of Parliament and said, "We are the real protectors of the Islamic Republic not those who showed in recent months that they are uprooting the republic and Islamic nature of the establishment." Khatami expressed concern about the "illegal" attitude adopted towards the Iranian nation after the election: "Certain ongoing moves run counter to legal principles."

What Press TV fails to note is that those former members of Parliament issued a statement a few days ago raising the issue of the authority of the Supreme Leader. So this meeting may be part of the move to invoke Law 111 over the prudence and justice of Khamenei.

2005 GMT: Agence France Presse reports, "Iran released 24-year-old French academic Clotilde Reiss on bail Sunday six weeks after she was arrested on suspicion of spying, the French presidency said, adding that she is in good health."

2000 GMT: Revolutionary Road has posted a summary in English, including the names of the defendants, in today's third trial of post-election political detainees.

1905 GMT: And it's not just Press TV that is giving airtime to the opposition and "enemies" of the regime. An EA correspondent reports that Iranian state television, including IRIB Channel 1, is also carrying the denial of charges by an attorney for one of the defendants in today's trial in Tehran (see 1625 GMT).

1855 GMT: Press TV's website is now summarising, in fact almost reprinting in full, the latest statement from Mir Hossein Mousavi: “Our election campaign was conducted under the Constitution and the principles which the Iranian nation holds dear. We still remain committed to the same slogans.”

The article prints, without any critical commentary, Mousavi's memories of Election Night:

[At first] we thought that mismanagement was the cause of chaos. I, myself, made contacts with authorities of the country. On the election day, I called the Judiciary Chief [Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi] twice, the Prosecutor General [Qorban-Ali Dorri-Najafabadi] two times, the Majlis Speaker [Ali Larijani] twice, and the Office of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution [Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei] four times to raise issues about the pre-planned scenarios.

Mousavi, the former prime minister who worked under the founder of the Islamic Revolution, added that he had dispatched a team to see Interior Minister Sadeq Mahsouli, “but, surprisingly, he refused to meet” with them.

Mousavi's challenge to the regime is also featured: “We are confident that an atmosphere of mistrust would not have been created in the country if a fair attitude had been adopted [after the election], to the demands of the Iranian people, and if the media had been prevented from attributing the nation's will to foreigners and diverting facts.”


1700 GMT: In Case You Missed It. Yesterday US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton issued a statement calling on "Iranʼs leadership to quickly resolve all outstanding American citizen cases". These include the detentions of Iranian-American academic Kian Tajbakhsh, whose situation we have profiled on Enduring America, and three American hikers, who were seized when they crossed the Iraq-Iran border.

1640 GMT: Mir Hamid Hassanzadeh, who ran Mir Hossein Mousavi's Ghalam News website during the Presidential campaign, has been released on bail after 11 days in detention. Dr Saeed Shirkavand of the Islamic Iran Participation Front has also been freed on bail.

1625 GMT: Tehran Trial Twist. For the first time, an Iranian state media outlet has carried details of a denial of the charges against post-election political detainees. Press TV's website leads with, "The defense attorney of one of the post-vote detainees has described as 'severe' an indictment that charged his defendant with throwing a hand-made grenade."

The article continues with a specific description of the allegation against Meisam Ghorbani and the attorney's rebuttal rather, than as has been typical of state media reporting, focusing on the prosecution's description of foreign intrigue for a "velvet revolution".

1610 GMT: A Moscow Tilt against Ahmadinejad? The Russian company Megafon now denies that it will start a new mobile phone operation in Iran.

1600 GMT: More Cabinet Rumours. Hossein Sobhaninia, the deputy head of the Parliament's National Security and Foreign Affairs Commission, has told Mehr News Agency that Saeed Jalili (currently head of the President's National Security Council) will be next Foreign Minister and that the current Defence and Interior Ministers, Mostafa Mohammad Najjar and Sadeq Mahsouli, will swap positions. He added that he was incensed by Ahmadinejad's failure to consult with the Commission before these cabinet changes.

1150 GMT: Yeah, Yeah, Whatever. Besides announcing some of his Cabinet choices on Iranian television, President Ahmadinejad trotted out the "foreign interference" line, on the same time that 28 more defendants went on trial. Ahmadinejad told the "West", "This time you clearly interfered in Iran's domestic affairs and you thought you would be able to harm the Islamic nation. You should be held accountable for your actions but we know very well the fuss you created in the world is not a sign of your authority but rather it is a sign of your weakness and downfall."

1110 GMT: An EA correspondent writes, "In the end the Intelligence Ministry did not end up in the hands of [Basiji commander] Hossein Taeb, but it appears that the IRGC [Revolutionary Guard] is as present as ever. According to Fars News, [Heydar] Moslehi was Imam Khomeini's representative in the Khatam al-Anbia and Karbala military bases during the Iraq war and, more importantly, the Supreme Leader's "representative with the land forces of the IRGC and deputy of the Islamic Propaganda Organisation". Hence he is a solid Khamenei acolyte with strong ties to the IRGC. He is also currently a deputy to Ahmadinejad for Islamic University Affairs and Khamenei's representative in the lucrative Waqf Foundations Qrganisation.

1100 GMT: Fars News has now published the indictment and photographs from today's Tehran trial.

1050 GMT: The two women announced today by President Ahmadinejad in his Cabinet choice, to lead the Welfare and Health Ministries, are Fatemeh Ajorloo, a conservative MP from Karaj, and Marzieh Dastjerdi, a gynaecologist.

According to Dastjerdi's biography, just published by Mehr News, she is a solid stalwart of Iran's health establishment, having served in the women's section of the Cultural Revolution Council and the top management of the Health Ministry. She is currently on the board of trustees of the Medical Sciences College of Tehran, of which she is also head of international relations.

1030 GMT: An Iranian website is reporting a statement from the "conservative" Society of Teachers and Researchers of Qom, whose members include Mohammad Yazdi and Ahmed Khatami, calling on the Government to ensure detainees' rights and to curb illegal actions committed during arrests and detentions.

1015 GMT: Confusion on the Internet over the demonstration of support for Etemade Melli, originally proposed by Mehdi Karroubi for Monday. As we reported earlier (0720 GMT), Karroubi's office cancelled the demonstration after threatened attacks by Government backers did not materialise on Saturday. A Facebook site run by supporters of Mir Hossein Mousavi, however, continues to maintain the call for protest.

Because the newspaper is closely connected with Karroubi's party, also called Etemade Melli, and because the information on the party's website is co-ordinated with Karroubi, we are treating his office's announcement --- still the lead item on the website --- as the latest information.

1000 GMT: Back to our first story of the day. President Ahmadinejad has just spoken live on Iranian TV. He says the full Cabinet will be named on Tuesday, but some names have been confirmed. Two women, for the Welfare and Health Ministries, will be proposed. Hojatoleslam Moslehi will be nominated as Minister of Intelligence. Ahmadinejad promised at least one more female minister in the full Cabinet.

0940 GMT: A New Challenge to Khamenei? On Friday, we reported and analysed the first wave of a constitutional move against the Supreme Leader's authority, with the statement of former MPs and Ayatollah Dastgheib's move for an emergency meeting of the Assembly of Experts.

This may now be building from "significant" to "important" story with the revelation, in Mowj-e-Sabz, of "a second wave". A number of high-ranking clerics from Qom, Mashad, and Isfahan have sent an open letter to the Assembly of Experts, asking them to re-evaluate the credentials of the Supreme Leader.

Using the words of Law Number 111 of the Constitution, the clerics assert that the necessary conditions of prudence and justice that are essential for any Supreme Leader have not been met. Therefore, according to the principles of Islamic jurisprudence set by Ayatollah Khomeini, Khameini is and must automatically deposed.

Some cautions with the report: Mowj-e-Sabz has a marked political stake in the story, as it is the website of the Green opposition. And the names of the clerics are not known, as they have been withheld out of consideration for their safety. Still, if true, the report indicates the growing pressure against the Supreme Leader.

0755 GMT: Fars News has an initial report on today's trial of 25 detainees for incitement of "velvet revolution". The indictment accuses them generally of "creating chaos and general disarray after the recent elections" and specifically of making bombs and distributing weapons.

0750 GMT: Propaganda of the Day. Keyhan writes, "Girls that have been recently arrested in the latest unrest and their families" want Mehdi Karroubi to be taken to court and be punished. Keyhan claims that these girls and their families believe, "From the time Karroubi published his letter our friends and relatives look down upon us and our reputation has been besmirched....Karroubi is a power-hungry liar and we can only regain our reputation by proving the falsity of his statements in court."

0730 GMT: Further to our first update on 72 hours for the President. Ali-Akbar Javanfekr, Ahmadinejad's press spokesman, says the President will introduce his cabinet to Parliament on Tuesday or Wednesday.

0720 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has responded to the attacks upon him in Friday prayers in Tehran:

Unfortunately a number of Friday Imams have abused the sacred position of Friday prayers and have used the market of false accusations, lies and infamy to sell their religion and have insulted the holy institute of Friday prayers....I had written a letter because I was concerned [about issues] and felt that it was my duty to respond, some individuals welcomed this letter others criticized it; however, this issue should not become a pretext for destruction, false accusations and insults. I welcome both approbation and criticisms; however, I can not remain indifferent to those who insult and those who have sold their religion for filthy lucre and I will most certainly respond to them in the near future.

Meanwhile, Karroubi's office has called off the demonstration of his followers scheduled for Monday: "Because the demonstration of the critics that was scheduled Saturday did not occur and the operation of Etemade Melli (newspaper) is continuing with no impediments, we are requesting that all supporters to demonstrate their good intentions by refraining from gathering arround the office of Etemade Melli. We would like to take this oppurtunity to thank public support that has been shown towards the personnel, editors and reporters of this newspaper....We would also like to thank the security forces that have maintaned calm and order around the office of the newspaper.

0700 GMT: Amidst a relatively quiet morning, we've concentrated on a special analysis on the fight over Iran's judiciary, marked by the appointment of Mohammad Sadegh Larijani as its head yesterday, and the wider contest between clerics, politicians, and the Revolutionary Guard.

At the same time, we're now starting to watch the clock on the future of the President. Not sure many have noticed, but Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has 72 hours to get approval from Parliament of his choices for Cabinet ministers. Otherwise, under Iranian law, the way is out for dissolution of the Government and new elections.

The Latest from Iran (11 August): A Change in Prayers and a Pause

NEW Iran Special Announcement: Supreme Leader Looking for (Facebook) Friends
Iran: Sifting Through Rafsanjani’s Decision
Iran Video: Extracts from Tehran Trials (8 August)
Truth and Reconciliation in/for Iran? A Roundtable Discussion
The Latest on Iran (10 August): Threats and Concessions
More Iran Drama: Will Rafsanjani Lead This Friday’s Prayers?
Iran: The Karroubi Letter to Rafsanjani on Abuse of Detainees

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2015 GMT: Lots of Twitter chatter about a demonstration for the Central Bazaar in Tehran, and bazaars in other Iranian cities, at 10 a.m. local time tomorrow.

1650 GMT: Speaking of the Revolutionary Guard. Here is the article which caused so much fuss this weekend, and which we have been covering extensively, by Yudollah Javani in the Guards' house journal. It concludes with the call for the judiciary to pursue the arrests of "ringleaders" of demonstrations such as Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, and Mehdi Karroubi.

1620 GMT: Stepping Up Pressure, But On Whom. The commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, General Mohammad Ali Jafari, has called for "confronting soft threats in all the cultural, economic, political and social arenas": "IRGC's strategy for confrontation with soft threats comprises preventative measures, full intelligence information on the type of a given threat and the time of its occurrence and plans for preventing its occurrence and formation."

Jafari added that the IRGC is preparing its infrastructure for confronting military, hard, and soft threats, with the battle against soft threats delegated to the Basiji militia.

Yet what is meant to appear as a tough statement against the foreign-inspired "velvet revolution" may also be a tactical retreat. Jafari did not repeat the threats, issued by other IRGC outlets, of arrests of opposition leaders.

And, in what appears to be a coordinated public relations assault, the commander of the Basiji, Hojjatoleslam Hossein Taeb has warned, in an address to his forces, "The enemy always strives to hinder unity among the (Iranian) people and seeks to attain its devilish goals through sowing discord as a means of soft threat."

Taeb was not as careful as Jafari to limit his comments at the foreign menace, "The enemy stepped into the scene of the presidential election...to achieve its goals by means of its agents and elements in Iran."

1555 GMT: Press TV Turns Up the Heat on Mahmoud. Not one but two stories on Press TV English's website sound a warning to President Ahmadinejad. First, it carried the story, which we revealed yesterday in a special analysis, that the President had to scurry to a meeting with more than 200 members of "principlist" majority bloc in Parliament because of challenges to his Cabinet choices.

Then, four minutes, another article reported that senior "reformist" MP Mostafa Kavakebyan had demanded in Parliament that Ahmadinejad report on "constitutional violations" during the post-election conflict: "It is the duty of the President to pursue such issues. However, the president has made no move in this regard.” The same article mentioned the submission to Parliament by the Mousavi campaign of the numbers of protestors killed and detained.

1550 GMT: From the Asosciated Press: "President Nicolas Sarkozy's office says a French Embassy employee on trial in Iran has been freed from prison. A statement says Sarkozy has spoken with Nazak Afshar since her release."

However, the statement also indicated that French national Clotilde Reiss is still being held and implied that Afshar has been bailed and still faces prosecution: "Sarkozy also wants the charges against Afshar, a French-Iranian citizen, to be dropped."

1450 GMT: There is still some confusion over Hashemi Rafsanjani and Friday prayers in Tehran. Khabar Online adds two comments to the official statement of Rafsanjani. The first is from Mohammad Hashemi-Rafsanjani, who pleaded ignorance of his brother's position. The second is from a close relative who insisted on remaining anonymous: "Mr. Rafsanjani has not completely made up his mind about his presence in the Friday prayers....The current conditions are special conditions that require Mr. Rafsanjani to re-evaluate his decision."

1430 GMT: We've split off this morning's first update as a special analysis, "Sifting Through Rafsanjani's Decision".

1420 GMT: A very slow day on news front, but reports that some detainees are being released, albeit with high bails. Amir Hossein Shemshadi, a member of the Green 88 campaign, was freed after $50,000 was posted; photographer Majid Saeedi put up $120,000.

1050 GMT: More on the Revolutionary Guards' Threats. Siavush Randjbar-Daemi, who is featured in today's roundtable discussion on "Truth and Reconciliation in/for Iran?", has published a useful overview of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps' warnings of possible arrests of opposition leaders. The article is in the Italian newspaper Il Messaggero, but for those who don't know Italian, the general sense can be picked up through Google Translate.

0920 GMT: Who's Trashing Larijani? The pro-Ahmadinejad Raja News claimed yesterday that Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani called Mir Hossein Mousavi on the phone "in the afternoon of the elections day" to congratulate him on his imminent win.

The article criticizes Larijani for acting irresponsibly, given that he had access to confidential information. In addition, it cases doubt on the legitimacy of Larijani's doctorate.

0900 GMT: Reuters reports, via Sarmayeh in Iran, the statement of Alireza Beheshti, chief advisor to Mir Hossein Mousavi, "The names of 69 people who were killed in post-election unrest ... were submitted to Parliament for investigation. The report also included the names of about 220 detainees."

Judiciary spokesman Alireza Jamshidi said at a separate press conference that more than 4000 protesters were arrested in demonstrations after 12 June, "but 3,700 of them were released in the first week after their arrest.

0815 GMT: We've just posted a challenging in-depth discussion amongst four specialist Iran-watchers on "truth and reconciliation", in light of an open letter from 31 academics to The Guardian of London.

0800 GMT: Media Silence. This is eerie. No one is noticing Rafsanjani's official announcement. CNN International's last Iran story is from more than 24 hours ago, on the Revolutionary Guard's threat to arrest opposition leaders. BBC English posted yesterday morning on the Karroubi letter to Rafsanjani, as did Al Jazeera English.