The Latest from Iran (15 July): The Zahedan Bombing

2130 GMT: The Zahedan Bombing. Back from a family break to learn about the two explosions, reportedly caused by suicide bombers, which have killed more than 20 people and wounded more than 100 in the southeastern Iranian city of Zahedan in Sistan-Baluchestan Province.

The explosions occurred in front of Zahedan's Grand Mosque. The first was at 9:20 p.m. local time (1650 GMT) and was followed by a second blast within minutes. A local MP claimed the first suicide bomber, dressed as a woman, tried to get into the mosque but was prevented

There are reports that members of the Revolutionary Guard are amongst the dead.

Deputy Interior Minister Ali Abdollahi has always described the incident as a "terrorist act". The prime suspect will be the Baluch insurgent group Jundullah, whose leader Abdolmalek Rigi was recently executed.

NEW Iran Follow-Up: The Story Beyond the Opposition, Enduring America, and US “Neoconservatives"
Iran: Understanding That Nuclear Scientist/Abduction Case (All It Takes is 1 Cartoon)
Iran Through the Looking Glass: “Never Judge Enduring America by Its Cover”
The Latest from Iran (14 July): Getting to the Point

1709 GMT: Rafsajani Watch. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, in an interview with Ertebatat monthly, has said, "Under the pretext of opposition to me, [Mohammad] Khatami, Nategh Nouri and [Mehdi] Karroubi, Ahmadinejad has put on sale all the achievements of the Revolution."

1700 GMT: Today's All-Is-Well Alert. From Press TV:

Iran's jet fuel production will soon surpass its local demand, as the country is boosting its production capacity in central Iran, an official says. Ali Dehqanian, a senior official with Isfahan Oil Refining Company (IORC), said the company currently produces 1.3 million liters of fuel jet per day, noting that Iran needs 4 million liters of fuel jet per day....

He added that an optimization project is underway in the company's fuel production unit that when complete will increase its jet fuel production to 5 million liters per day.

The official noted that 70 percent of the project has already been completed.

1658 GMT: The Electricity Squeeze. Rah-e-Sabz claims the Iran Khodro and Saipa automobile companies will close down on certain days during the week. The same is expected for other big firms.

1655 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Radio Zamaneh interviews two leading merchants from the Tehran Bazaar: "We Do Not Trust the Government's Promises".

1645 GMT: What is Ayatollah Yazdi Up To? Okay, so here's a summary of the statement by Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi at a meeting for the "Velayat Project" at Shahid Beheshti University:

Some think that the Supreme Leader has a representative function like the British Queen, but this is not true. Ayatollah Khomeini said: If the chosen President is not appointed by the Supreme Leader, he is a "taghout" (monarchist) and following him is haram (forbidden).

On the surface, that looks to be a straight-forward defence of Ayatollah Khamenei. But EA's Ms Zahra thinks there may be another interpreation: "This is a preparation for Yazdi's own succession as Leader and a justification of Ahmadinejad. He pretends to defend Khamenei's right to intervene in all matters, but even raising the "untrue" comparison with the Queen is an indirect attack.

1525 GMT: The Bigger Guardian Council Story? We noted the immediate headline today that the Supreme Leader had re-appointed three clerical representatives on the Guardian Council (see 1412 GMT).

This, however, is much more interesting. Sadegh Larijani, the head of Iran's judiciary, now names three of the "legal" representatives. His short-list --- Mohammad Salimi, Ahmad Beygi Habib-Abadi, Mohammad Reza Alizadeh, Mohammad Hadi Sadegh, and Siamak Rahpeyk --- excludes two candidates, current Council member Gholam-Hossein Elham and Assembly of Experts member Ayatollah Ka'abi, who are seen as pro-Ahmadinejad.

1455 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Alef has posted pictures of Tehran Bazaar today. Some show vendors doing business, others are of rows of closed stalls:

1450 GMT: Remembering. An activist translates Fereshteh Ghazi's account of the life and death of Amir Javadifar, who was abused and killed in Kahrizak Prison a year ago.

1428 GMT: Russia's Carrot-and-Stick Play. Meeting his Iranian counterpart Massoud Mir-Kazemi in Moscow, Russian Minister of Energy Sergei Shmatko praised “active cooperation between Russian and Iranian companies in the oil, gas and petrochemical sectors, which are developing and widening in their joint work”.

Yet Russian President Dmitry Medvedev seems to have put out a wordy warning to Tehran over the nuclear issue, "I would like to say that Iran is our rather active trading partner and has been tested by time, but that does not mean we are indifferent to the way Iran is developing its nuclear programme and we are not indifferent to how the military components of the corresponding programme look."

Analysis, please: is Moscow indicating that the recently-toughened UN sanctions are not a restriction on Iran's energy sector or is Shmatko's statement just a bit of rhetorical "balancing" to avoid a complete detachment from Tehran while his President stands alongside the "West"?

1412 GMT: The Guardians of the Guardian Council. Back from travels to find that the Supreme Leader has reinstated Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, Ayatollah Gholam Reza Rezvani, and Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Modarresi Yazdi, three of the six clerics on the 12-member Guardian Council.

0914 GMT: We've posted an analysis by Mr Verde of the bigger significance yesterday's opinion piece on the opposition website Rah-e-Sabz: "The Story Beyond the Opposition, Enduring America, and US 'Neoconservatives'".

0910 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Kalemeh, the website linked to Mir Hossein Mousavi, claims that the gold market in Tehran Bazaar is still closed.

0635 GMT: On Guard! General Amir Ahmad-Reza Pourdastan, commander of Iran's land forces, has announced that large parts of southern Iran will become "armed territory".

However, the foreign threat is not the main concern of Hojatoleslam Ali Saidi, the Supreme Leader's representative to the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps. He has declared that the "smallest mistake of officials will be punished heavily".

0630 GMT: Economy Watch (Revolutionary Guard Edition). The Minister of Economy, speaking in the Parliament, has spoken about the privatisation of Iran Telecom. He said that a rival of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps was eliminated from the bidding after the demand of  "one of the securityforces organisations".

0625 GMT: Government Retreat on Subsidy Cuts? Mohammad Reza Farzin, the Deputy Minister of Economy, has said the subsidy cut plan could be postponed. The current intention is to start reductions in Mehr (September/October), but Farzin says this is "perhaps too early".

0620 GMT: The Universities Dispute. Rah-e-Sabz reports that the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has met former President Hashemi Rafsanjani to discuss the conflict over control of Islamic Azad University, but there has been no resolution.

0555 GMT: To Lose One Journalist is a Misfortune, To Lose Four Looks Like Carelessness. Peyke Iran claims that a cultural reporter for Fars News has fled to France. His departure follows those of Hossein Salmanzadeh of the photo section, photojournalist Javad Moghimi, and political journalist Farahmand Alipour.

0530 GMT: Many thanks to readers for providing a rolling service of news and analysis while I was busy in the International Summer School on Wednesday.

Catching Up with the News....

Amiri Not A Nuclear Scientist Shocker

Iranian state media is setting out the line on the curious case of scientist Shahram Amiri, who returned to Iran from the US yesterday, purportedly through his words on his 14 months outside the country. Press TV has him saying:

The US administration has connected my abduction to Iran's nuclear case to pursue certain goals and exert pressure on the Iranian government. While I was being interrogated by US intelligence agents, they urged me to announce that I carried a laptop containing important information and applied for asylum.

The statement links back to the Americans' claim in recent years that they have an Iranian laptop proving Iran's pursuit of a nuclear weapons, a claim disputed by many analysts. There are flourishes such as "Israel agents" at Amiri's interrogation, the "heaviest mental torture", and an offer of $10 million to appear on CNN and announce his defection.

Interestingly, Amiri is no longer a "nuclear scientist" in the article. He is an "academic".

Why the US would put so much effort into abducting a mere "scholar" is not made clear by Press TV.

And He Doesn't Get His $5 Million, Either

The US Government line, put out in The Washington Post, is a good-bye to Amiri with the sneer, "We're keeping your defection money."

Officials say Amiri was paid more than $5 million by the CIA before breaking off "significant cooperation" and "abruptly returning" to Iran because he missed his family:

Anything he got is now beyond his reach, thanks to the financial sanctions on Iran. He's gone, but his money's not. We have his information, and the Iranians have him.

The Latest from Iran (13 July): Back to Politics?

2030 GMT: Tie Me Up, Tie Me Down. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami has denounced President Ahmadinejad for saying that no religious leader has banned the wearing of a tie: "I say to him that many religious dignitaries believe ties should not be worn. The Supreme Guide [Leader] himself has said in a that the wearing of ties or bowties is not permitted."

1955 GMT:Electricity Squeeze. Mohammad Behzad, the Deputy Minister of Energy, has said industrial electricity will be rationed with alterations of working hours and rotating closures of companies.

1945 GMT: Iran Aircraft on Empty? BP and Iran Air have both confirmed that the British company has stopped supplying jet fuel at Germany's Hamburg airport.

Iran Analysis: Grand Ayatollah Golpayegani Criticises Supreme Leader? (and What Could It Mean?)
Iran’s Haircuts Special: The Revenge of the Mullets
The Latest from Iran (12 July): Holidays?

1915 GMT: Where is Mahmoud (Not Going)? Hmm, not sure what to make of this. From Mehr News:

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has postponed his visit to Lebanon till after the holy month of Ramadan [which ends on 9 September], the Beirut-based Al-Akhbar newspaper said in a report published on Tuesday.

The decision was made after a consultation between Tehran and Beirut, Al-Akhbar quoted Lebanese diplomatic sources as saying....

Ahmadinejad, who has been invited by his Lebanese counterpart Michel Suleiman, was supposed to visit Beirut before 11 August at the head of a 70-member delegation.

1900 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert. From Press TV:

Iran's Interior Minister says Tehran has successfully foiled all foreign plots aimed at destabilizing the country over the past three decades. "Over the past 30 years, our enemies faced defeat in every instance and their latest ploy was [inciting] the seditionists who wanted to break our ranks," Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar told reporters on Tuesday....

The Interior Minister said peace was restored to the country's eastern region after the execution of Abdolmalek Rigi, the ringleader of the Pakistan-based Jundallah terrorist group.

"With the execution of this villain, who was backed by several Western spy agencies and the Israelis, complete peace has returned to the region."

1850 GMT: The Prison Scandal. Writing in Rooz Online, Fereshteh Ghazi offers a lengthy critique of the Kahrizak abuse case. She sets out the case that, while two security personnel have been condemned to death and nine have been given prison sentences, those responsible --- notably former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi --- have escaped justice.

1825 GMT: Politics and the Bazaar Strike. An EA correspondent pulls together the latest from the Tehran Bazaar and a statement by the head of the "conservative" Motalefeh Party, Mohammad Nabi Habibi, on growing conflict with President Ahmadinejad and his allies, "The Velayat Party [declared by Ahmadinejad this weekend] does not exist."

Our correspondent, drawing on Motalefeh's traditional power in the Bazaar, interprets Habibi's statement: "If you hit my party, I hit your economy."

1815 GMT: More on the Khatami Statement (see 1510 GMT). Khabar Online's main takeaway from Mohammad Khatami's meeting with youth groups and reformist journalists is his declaration that "many people, professors, students, experts, and journalists are leaving the country".

Parleman News focuses on Khatami's assertion that the "Green Movement belongs to the people" and his reading of the political situation: "Some think they are above the law," deviating from religious principles. Khatami added,  "We have reached a point that even the Majlis cannot stop injustice". In a pointed reference to President Ahmadinejad's statement that Iran needs no other than the "Velayat Party", Khatami noted, "The Shah said as well that we have only one party."

1630 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Tehran Bureau sends the following from a correspondent: ""I visited the bazaar today and was quite surprised to see most stores closed there. There were NO security personnel in uniform to be found anywhere. I did see a Basiji directing traffic half a mile away. There was also a flier on the wall (inside the main bazaar) which said the '15% deal is off'."

More claimed footage from today:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FN26VggCKqE[/youtube]

1525 GMT: Culture Corner (Revolutionary Guard Edition). The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps has announced that it is establishing an "Association of Cultural Elites" near Tehran University.

1510 GMT: Khatami on "Double-Edged" Religion. Speaking to youth parties and reformist journalists, former President Mohammad Khatami has declared that religion can be "a double-edged sword" insofar as it can pursue rights and justice but it also be a tool to justify exclusion and failure.

1455 GMT: Fighting the Oil Squeeze. Iranian Students News Agency reports that Iran cut its imports of gasoline by almost 50% in March-June 2010, compared to figures of the previous year.

1445 GMT: Keeping the Pressure On. Interesting, given our current attention to possible manoeuvres against President Ahmadinejad, to find Jahan News citing Abdolhossein Ruholamini, the campaign manager for Mohsen Rezaei in the 2009 Presidential campaign and the father of Mohsen Rouholamini, killed in Kahrizak Prison last summer.

Ruholamini asks, given that the criminal verdicts over Kahrizak have been announced, why has Saeed Mortazavi, the former Tehran Prosecutor General and now aide to the President, not been dismissed?

1435 GMT: Statements Present. Mir Hossein Mousavi has said, in a meeting with a group of faculty of Tarbiat Modarres University, that everyone who defends rights is a member of the Green Movement.

Mousavi declared, "Soon Green Hope will win because people are looking for the realization of rights. The seeking of human freedom is the defence of rationality and logic against oppression and lies."

1425 GMT: Statements Past. Khordaad 88 has posted the English translation of the Mousavi-Karroubi press conference on 8 June, held four days before the anniversary of the 2009 Presidential election.

Rooz Online has published the English translation of its interview this weekend with Zahra Rahnavard on the diversity of the Green Movement and its welcoming of criticism.

1420 GMT: Broadcast News. The head of SWR, part of the German broadcaster ARD, has defended the recent visit of the head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ezzatollah Zarghami, and an IRIB delegation by saying that there were no cooperation agreements during an "informational visit". The clear implication in the letter is that the reception of IRIB ensures that ARD can maintain a journalistic presence in Iran.

1410 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Four detainees in Rejai Shahr Prison have written the Tehran Prosecutor General, Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi, asking, "Where is the human dignity you have claimed?"

A letter from 160 activists demands the release of Azam Veysameh, a journalist arrrested on 10 June.

1400 GMT: Political Changes. Hossein Saberi, the Governor of Lorestan Province in western Iran, was suddenly replaced. So sudden, in fact, that he learned of his dismissal from an announcement on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting.

1355 GMT: And now claimed footage of the strike at the Tehran Bazaar today:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rk4CqIK-ZIg[/youtube]

1345 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Rah-e-Sabz claims, with supporting photos, that "strikes continued today and were even more extensive than last week".

Khabar Online is also carrying the news, which has been picked up by Agence France Presse. The Government has been declaring that a compromise deal of a 15% tax increase --- down from the original 70% --- has been agreed.



1340 GMT: Parliament v. President. MP Omidvar Rezaei has said that Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani "reminded" President Ahmadinejad, at the meeting of the heads of the executive, legislative, and judicial brances, of violating Article 138 over the implementation of laws.

MP Emad Afrough has declared that the Supreme Council of Cultural Revolution, at the centre of the dispute over Islamic Azad University, is far from acceptable because of members' inability, too many jobs, and low expertise.

1325 GMT: Execution Watch. The international furour over the sentencing to death by stoning, now temporarily suspended, of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani has been matched by questions within Iran. Ayatollah Bayat Zanjani has pronounced that stoning is not in the Qu'ran while reformist Masoumeh Ebtekar, a former Vice President, has asserted that Ayatollah Khomeini said many times that stoning should not be carried out.

1020 GMT: The Battle Within. Ali Larijani has used the economic front to take another jab at the Government. He has underlined the importance of a "relationship between hardliners and clergy" (a call for a front to challenge Ahmadinejad?) and added that the meaning of Iran's Article 44 regulating state and private economic spheres was not for the latest sell-off of four companies.

1015 GMT: Sideshow of the Day. A bit off the key terrain of Iranian politics, this curious case continues:

An Iranian nuclear scientist who Tehran claims was kidnapped by the United States has sought refuge at the Pakistani embassy's Iranian interests section in Washington and is seeking to return home to Iran, Pakistani authorities said Tuesday.

Shahram Amiri, a onetime researcher at Iran's Atomic Energy Organization who disappeared during a trip to Saudi Arabia last year, appeared at the Iranian interests section office at 6:30 p.m. Monday, said Pakistani Foreign Office spokesman Abdul Basit.

0828 GMT: Break Time. Off to teach at the Clinton Institute Summer School so updates will resume briefly in about 90 minutes and then again this afternoon.

0825 GMT: The Battle Within. Secretary of Expediency Council (and 2009 Presidential candidate) Mohsen Rezaei has given a long interview to Khabar Online. Lots to be worked through, but an EA correspondent notes his claim
that Hashemi Rafsanjani's manoeuvre is "to bring back reformers and divert (enheraf) hardliners".

That would seem to be a swipe at Rafsanjani, which is at odds with my weekend analysis of planners against Ahmadinejad, including Rezaei, reaching out to the former President.

0810 GMT: Electoral Change. The Guardian Council has approved a Parliament bill to hold Presidential and city council elections at the same time, effectively the next municipal ballot by two years to 2013.

0807 GMT: We Want Our Money. According to Peyke Iran, President Ahmadinejad has claimed that banks owe the Government 10 trillion toman (about $10 billion).

0805 GMT: Economic Salvation? Borzou Daragahi of the Los Angeles Times investigates continued and growing links between Germany and Tehran:

Chancellor Angela Merkel can warn companies all she wants to stop doing business with Iran. Yet commerce between German firms and the Islamic Republic keeps expanding, as businesses here continue longstanding relationships with Tehran.

In the first four months of 2010, trade between Iran and Germany totaled nearly $1.8 billion, up 20% from the same period last year, according to the German-Iranian Chamber of Commerce in Hamburg.

0800 GMT: Trouble in Qom? Alongside our special look this morning at a claimed rebuke of the Supreme Leader by Grand Ayatollah Safi Golpayegani, Rah-e-Sabz claims concern amongst clerics about a change in identity of the seminaries (howzeh).

0755 GMT: Watching the Bazaar. Iran should be back to work today after an extended holiday since last Thursday. We're watching for news out of the Tehran Bazaar, amidst chatter both about continued strikes and about a settlement between the Government and the vendors, reducing the business tax increase from 70% to 15%.

0725 GMT: We begin this morning with an analysis of a reported message from Grand Ayatollah Safi Golpayegani to the Supreme Leader: has Ayatollah Khamenei been told that his earthly life has been wasted and his heavenly one is in doubt?

And it looks like there is a new player in Iranian broadcasting: welcome to Mir Hossein Mousavi TV.

The Latest from Iran (9 July): Remembering 18 Tir?

Editor's Note: A technical glitch means that Comments are now closed on this page. Further comments and discussion continue on the 10 July updates page.

2125 GMT: Who Could He Mean? And ahead of tomorrow, another glance at a statement by Ali Larijani on Thursday: "Whoever stands against the law is committing rebellion and everyone should obey the law, or the Parliament will stand against him. It makes no sense that ordinary people obey the law but some of the officials do not."

2040 GMT: Heat Alert. The Ahmadinejad Government has announced that Sunday and Monday will be public holidays --- Saturday is a religious holiday --- because of the "extreme heat".

We presume that they mean the high air temperatures in the country rather than any extreme political heat they may be feeling amidst Bazaar strikes, conservative intrigues, etc.

NEW Iran Document: Detained Student Leader Tavakoli on 18 Tir & Protest (6 July)
NEW Iran Analysis: Assessing the Bazaar Strikes & a Political Twist (Verde)
Iran Document: Mousavi on UN Sanctions & Ahmadinejad Government (7 July)
Iran Snap Analysis: The Wave of Economic Discontent?
The Latest from Iran (8 July): Criticisms

2025 GMT: Important but Overlooked News? For reasons we will explain tomorrow, we think that this speech by Seyed Ahmad Dastghaib, the reformist PM of Shiraz, in the Majlis might be significant.....

Dastghaib said, "Unfortunately today many of Imam [Khomeini]’s speeches are not being said to the people". Then, using those speeches, he dropped his political bombshell: "If the top person in the country does wrong, Islam will depose him. He is not suitable for ruling and he is a Dictator."

In case anyone was not sure to whom Dastghaib was referring, he clarified that anyone can criticise the Supreme Leader.

Dastghaib also asserted, from Khomeini's words that broadcasters should be independent of the government and must broadcast everyone's opinion. Military forces must not interfere in the political and economic fields. And it is against Islamic law to attack or insult any cleric.

1935 GMT: It is reported that the Feminist School website has been filtered for the 15th time.

1925 GMT: Poster of the Day? It is claimed that this is a poster at the Tehran Bazaar: "Join the Strikes".



1430 GMT: Remembering. A group from the Mothers of Mourning, remembering their detained and killed children, have visited the memorial site for Cyrus the Great to denounce the oppression and injustices being committed against Iran's youth. The group then visited the home of imprisoned student activist Majid Tavakoli to share their empathy with his mother.

1315 GMT: Your Tehran Friday Prayer Update. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami taking charge today, and I have to say it's a pretty impressive performance from the fiery fellow.

Sure, he starts with the standard denunciation of Israel in the Middle East and of US and European sanctions against Iran but then he gets distinctive with his criticism, bringing in the July 1988 incident when the USS Vincennes shot down an Iranian civilian airliner, killing 290 people.

And then he's nimbly onto the cultural front, warning Iranians that they should not be misled by "Los Angeles singers". Tolerance, he says, must not only "cultural"; it must also be "political".

So how does all this fit together? Khatami name-checks 18 Tir (9 July) 1999 and the demonstrations against the Iranian regime . What was it? A great occasion to learn of the US threat and to neutralise it (and its Los Angeles singers).

1310 GMT: Culture Corner. According to Green Voice of Iran, famous singer Mohammad Nouri, artist of songs such as "Maryam", has rejected an offer of assistance from the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance.

1250 GMT: Responding to the Bazaar Strike. Javan News, linked to the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, has offered a special reaction to this week's developments in the Tehran Bazaar, "Angelina Jolie and Half-Naked Women Instead of Traditional Rug Designs":

There were wall carpets bearing half-bare women and girls, and the faces of [Indian superstar] Aishwarya Rai, Angelina Jolie, Nicole Kidman, and some Iranian actresses were more prominently displayed than [traditional rug designs]...., master rug weavers, who in the old days would not sit before their looms before performing ablution, now weave pictures of skulls and swastikas of Satanist groups into Iranian carpets. And even more regretfully, the bulk of rug traders' orders to weavers consists of vulgar pictures of women in various poses.


1230 GMT: Rumour of the Day (Week? Month?). Back from an academic break and then some checking with sources. Here's the story as we have it so far....

In recent days, there has been a meeting involving Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, 2009 Presidential candidate and Secretary of Expediency Council Mohsen Rezaei, and key member of Parliament and Larijani ally Ahmad Tavakoli. MP Ali Motahari may also have been present.

The meeting discussed the current political and economic situation and the tensions with the Ahmadinejad Government. We have reason to believe that there may be serious consideration of how and when to limit President Ahmadinejad's authority and possibly remove him from office. Specifically, those in the meeting were hoping to open up discussions with former President Hashemi Rafsanjani on the next steps.

(EA readers will recall that a similar initiative was reportedly discussed in January between Larijani, Rezaei, and Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf. That effort seemed to have been put on hold by the apparent success of the Government in restricting opposition on 22 Bahman/11 February.)

We hope to have more information and a full analysis on this development tomorrow.
0935 GMT: Grounding the Aircraft? A bit more on this week's tale that Iranian flights were being denied fuel by suppliers in Britain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Germany....

A Hamburg Airport spokeswoman said two Iranian aircraft took off without refuelling, one on Saturday and one on Wednesday: "We can confirm that these aircraft flew from Hamburg but did not take on fuel here. We cannot say where they flew to or where they refuelled."

0930 GMT: Propaganda Ploy. Green Voice of Iran claims a new creative tactic from Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting: fabricating "statements" by Mir Hosseni Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, and Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti by splicing together clips from their older speeches.

0920 GMT: Remembering. Thousands of people reported visited Beheshte Zahra cemetery yesterday afternoon in memory of last year's victims. Services for Mohsen Rouholamini, who was abused and killed in Kahrizak Prison, will be next Thursday.

Green Voice of Iran reviews the story of the post-election abuses in Kahrizak.

Peyke Iran posts photographs of families of detainees gathering on Wednesday outside Evin Prison.

0910 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? So let's check President Ahmadinejad's response to all these internal developments and tensions....

Speaking in Nigeria at the meeting of the Group of Eight Developing Countries, Ahmadinejad declared, "The UN should be in a free place, away from the US domination."

0905 GMT: Pressure on Ahmadinejad. Two stories in Rooz Online English which parallel our coverage....

Bahram Rafiee reviews this week's challenge by MP Ahmad Tavakoli to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who "weakens the judiciary and law", and Mohammad Reza Yazdanpanah, like EA's Mr Verde today, picks up the claims by Abbas Palizdar, the former MP who was jailed for verbal attacks on senior clergy and who now says he was acting on behalf of Ahmadinejad's camp.

0815 GMT: We have published the English translation of a statement by detained student leader Majid Tavakoli on 18 Tir, the anniversary of the 1999 demonstrations, and protest today.

0730 GMT: Parliament v. President. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has declared that the Majlis will stand firmly against "lawbreakers" --- a reference to Ahmadinejad's maneouvres v. Parliament over his 5th Budget Plan? --- and defend people's rights

Reformist MP Dariush Ghanbari has said that a plan to question Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, specifically over reparations from Iraq, is being prepared.

0720 GMT: The Bazaar Dispute. An EA correspondent reports that a meeting between Iranian officials and Bazaari representatives may not have gone too well. It is said to have ended in a clash with one official, Ali Asgari, leaving angrily. Bazaaris shouted at journalists to keep the other officials from departing and to make them give suitable answers.

There were also new reports that men in plainclothes were trying to get shopkeepers to open on Wednesday.

A bit of clarification. Yesterday was a religious holiday in Iran, so the Bazaar would normally have been closed, rather than "on strike"; Saturday is also a religious holiday. 0715 GMT: A Bit of Mischief over Ahmadinejad's Journeys. Khabar Online reports on President Ahmadinejad's visit to Mali and features this photo:



An EA correspondent says that, in Persian, "to put a hat on someone's head" --- in this case, a turban --- can mean cheating him.

0710 GMT: Mousavi's Statements Keep On Coming. Hard on the heels of his analysis this week of UN sanctions and the Ahmadinejad Government, Mir Hossein Mousavi has put out a statement declaring that the Green Movement welcomes diversity.

0540 GMT: We have posted an analysis by Mr Verde of the significance of this week's strikes in the Tehran Bazaar and of a new political development that may be trouble for President Ahmadinejad.

0535 GMT: Writing at insideIRAN, Sohrab Razzaghi, a former official in the Ministry of Interior, has posted a series of recommendations to strengthen Iran's civil society:

• Creation of social networks to support the political and civil liberties movement in Iran and starting talks with Iran’s civil rights and political activists to enhance human rights and democracy

• Building of civil societies, with assistance from the international community to help civil society activists in capacity-building and related efforts.

• Promotion of human rights in Iran in various levels and for various segments of society.

• Education of a new generation of political activists and human rights defenders

• Enhancement of the free flow of information among Iranian citizens.

0530 GMT: Parliament v. President. Footage has been posted of Press TV interviews, in Persian, with members of Parliament over the attacks by leading MP Ahmad Tavakoli on the Ahmadinejad Government.

0515 GMT: Execution Watch. Amidst international pressure, Iranian authorities have announced that Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, sentenced to death for adultery, will not be stoned. However, there is no indication that the threat of execution has been lifted.

0445 GMT: Today in Iran is 18 Tir. On the eve of this date in 1999, students began what would become the most widespread public protests since the 1979 Revolution. After a raid by security forces on a dormitory, the demonstrations escalated. Several people were killed in injured, hundreds were injured, and more than 1000 were estimated to have been detained.

So far, we have little news of public commemoration of the event. It may be notable that it is already in the mid-90s (35 degrees Celsius) in Tehran --- local time 9:15 a.m. --- and the temperature is projected to reach 107-108 (42 Celsius). So if there is a gathering of note, it may not take place until late afternoon.

Meanwhile....

Political Prisoner Watch

EA correspondents point us to a new report by human rights activists, in Persian, on conditions in a number of detention centres.

Iran Document: Mousavi on UN Sanctions & Ahmadinejad Government (7 July)

From Kalemeh, translated by Negar Irani:

Unfortunately, the Security Council's resolution 1929 was finally passed. This resolution and other resolutions could have easily been avoided had we used some tact and wisdom.

If we are discussing this resolution today, it is not to pour further salt on a wound, rather because ignoring the consequences of this resolution will only make matters worse. Even if we state that this resolution is a pretext, it does not minimize the effects of tumultuous and manipulative policies. Of course swearing at and insulting other countries may have an effect on a small domestic audience with limited awareness; however, in reality it does nothing but further deteriorate the situation outside our borders.

Unfortunately, unlike certain politicians in our country who put their own personal interests above that of our country's national interests, we doubt that the authorities of the countries imposing sanctions on us define their own interests outside the framework of their country's national interests. I am hopeful that our nation paid close attention to the vulgar response given by Russia's Foreign Minister to one of the speakers. In his response he pointed to a fact that has been repeatedly witnessed in international relations, mainly that for Russia (and other countries, such as the United States, China, Turkey, Brazil and others) the most important criteria is protecting Russia's national interests --- although understanding this simple point seems to be difficult for those [in our country] who are unfortunately too wrapped up in their own short-term interests to even notice it.

To me, however, it abundantly clear that this resolution is going to have an adverse effect on our country's security and economy. It will lead to a reduction in our GDP, higher unemployment, and more economic and social pressures on our people, and it will result in a widening of the gap between the development of our country vis-a vis our neighboring countries, in effect, serving as the last nail in the coffin that was being prepared over the past twenty years. Anyone with any common sense will know that the passing of this resolution will only lead to the further isolation and vulnerability of our country.

The fate of other countries in the region that have proudly fallen for the empty rhetoric of such short-sighted nations is a pitiful fate of which we should all be conscious.

Currently, it is important to focus on solutions that will minimize the threats to our independence, territorial integrity, and the legitimate rights of our country. It goes without saying that safeguarding our freedom and the rights of our citizens and defending our national security will not be possible without the free and informed consent of our citizens. Green social networks must focus on solutions designed to safeguard us from this undesirable event.

Before pointing out some of these possible solutions, it is important that we condemn this cruel and unnecessary resolution. We are being condemned while Palestinian land is still easily occupied by others who are given the right to nuclear bombs, while we are deprived of the right to use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. Surely this resolution is against our country. We must nevertheless also keep our eyes open to the effects of other existing, chaotic, and adventurous policies.

1. The first and most essential solution to countering this resolution is to ensure that our nation is informed in an honest and forthright manner. It is our people's right to better understand the details of this resolution and the additional sanctions that are being added to it. Our people need to understand the effects of these sanctions on the unemployment rate, on inflation, on our GDP, and on the ability of our nation to progress. In other words, they need to understand how it affects their bottom line. Referring to this resolution as a torn piece of paper is not going to solve the problems and challenges facing our nation. If our people have to face and fight an adversity that was not of their choosing, we must at least gain their trust; a trust that will only be developed through transparency and a government that is truthful and forthright.

2. One of the points of our people must be made aware is the predictable security risks resulting from this new resolution. Many of our citizens are unaware of extent of the dangers associated with the path that we have fallen into due to ignorance and exaggeration. The witty rants and boasts by certain individuals pretending that nothing has happened is nothing but betrayal of our people.

If our nation’s readiness is the most important element in fighting the potential dangers we face, then it is incumbent upon us to inform them as much as possible about the potential security consequences associated with the current situation we find ourselves in. If this is too difficult a task for those responsible for our government, they should at least allow non-government media outlets to freely inform our citizens of the necessary analysis with compassion and without exaggeration of the facts.

3. These new conditions require that we expand the current limited circle of advisors to the nuclear issue. As far as I am aware, unlike the era when Mr. Khatami was President, we currently have less people and individuals with far less experience than in the past, handling this sensitive matter. One of the main reasons why we find ourselves in this undesirable and critical position is due to this limited circle of advisers.

Governments of countries that have dealt with the nuclear issue successfully, in addition to having legitimacy, observe national alliances, building upon collective and even relative consensus. What is wrong with allowing our country's Parliament to make decisions with regards to the principles governing our country's nuclear policy the same way they made decisions with regards to the American hostages? Instead, our Parliament is left with no recourse but to come up with last-minute, dictated legislation designed to justify the incorrect decision-making processes of our government.

Why is it that a select few are making secretive decisions about matters that affect the future of our entire nation? Were our people not supposed to be in charge of their own destiny? Why should our people be in agreement with every decision we make? Are the principles associated with referendum meaningless in our society to the extent that every time some one refers to them they have to face a barrage of insults and threats? Should we not instead allow our people to be involved in sensitive and important decisions that affect our entire nation?

4. Under the current conditions, a rift between the people and the government will only result in a higher risk of danger from foreign influences and those with bad intentions. The rigged elections, the oppression that occurred after the elections, the mismanagement and corruption, and the deceitful and confusing economic and cultural policies have led to a crisis and lack of confidence in the government and a distancing of the people from the ruling powers.

Today, more than ever it is vital that we begin to pay attention to and address the solutions that were set forth in the Green Movement's statement #17 [on 1 January 2010]. A repressive and illegitimate government that is at war with its own people is ill-equipped to effectively deal with foreign threats. Under these circumstances, they [the illegitimate ruling government] have to either pay an unfair ransom or put the country at imminent risk.

As a result, creating a safe backdrop for free, fair, competitive and non-selective elections, and ensuring freedom of press, freedom of political prisoners, taking care of the families of those martyred and harmed becomes even more vital. If our people are our main asset for dealing with the serious situation we currently face, then their opinion and viewpoint should be respected. Before making any decisions, we must carefully consider the impact of these decisions on the lives of teachers, white-collar workers, labourers, salaried workers, the poor, and all those working hard to make a living in our society. It is not fair to have the youth who are seeking jobs pay the price of arbitrary and adventurous decisions made by the government.

Let us all bear witness to a bunch of hollering, baton-carrying thugs who do nothing but threaten the lives, livelihood, and dignity of our people in broad daylight and speak of bombarding our Parliament in broad daylight, all under the pretext of pro-government support. Is this how we run the world?

5. Fostering hatred, creating enemies, and continuing factional killings have only led to the regime becoming even more empty-handed. A brief look at the events that took place in New York and Geneva last year only shed more light on the weakness of this government. To overcome this dangerous crisis of management in our country will have to utilize every capacity at our disposal. The danger we face is significant enough that referring to important personalities such as Mr. Hashemi [Rafsanjani], Khatami, Rohani, Aghazadeh, Larijani, and others is a necessity. Is it not unfortunate that our former president [Mohammad Khatami, someone with wide international support and respect] would be prevented from traveling abroad, when his presence would have been instrumental in defending our nation's rights when it comes to nuclear technology? Everyone in our country is aware of the fact that most of the qualified managers and individuals who should be used as an elite force to run the country when in crisis have been excluded from all important policy making decisions. How should we view this obvious, extremely concerning, and controversial reality?

6. The current activities of the IRGC (Sepah) [Islamic Revolution Guards Corps] are questionable to say the least. On the one hand the IRGC and Basiji forces are aiming their weapons directly at the people of our nation instead of at our enemies, playing a key role in the oppression and interrogation of political forces and those opposing the regime. On the other hand the IRGC has also become involved in our nation's economy in an unprecedented manner.

Certainly, restoring the IRGC's original responsibilities will lead to reviving the honorable role of this institution as defenders of our sacred nation. It will also reduce the dangers resulting from greed and malice, enable a more healthy economy, reduce corruptio,n and further encourage the private sector. An IRGC that is more concerned with the volatility of the dollar on the open market and interference in the affairs of banking, the stock market and export and import contracts cannot be trusted with the security of our nation and our revolution.

Unfortunately we are currently witnessing the deterioration of popular support for the IRGC. If this trend continues, it is foreseeable that the IRGC will become exceedingly more interested in defending its own interest in the stocks of companies and institutions in which it is invested rather than defending our nation. Eventually this interest will transform them into authoritarian power that works against the best interest of our nation. If love and trust of the armed forces is considered one of their greatest assets, today the activities of the IRGC as it relates to the economy and our security have led to the significant decrease of their social capital.

We all know that the brave and chivalrous forces within the IRGC are fed up with this type of behavior. Let us not forget the people's hatred of the financial and security institutions during the time of the monarchy and to what extent they were instrumental in the people's anger. As a result of the resolution and sanctions imposed on our country, reviewing the role of the IRGC and Basiji should be a key concern for everyone looking for the best interest of our nation, regardless of our background or affiliation. Here I would like to also reiterate that the attack of the Basiji on Mr. Karroubi and Khatami , the events that occurred on 4 June of this year [the shout-down of Seyed Hassan Khomeini at the ceremony for his late grandfather] and the recent attack and insult of our parliament only further facilitates the interests and goals of those who have imposed the sanctions on our country.

7. The last point we need to focus on is that the sanctions are not designed to bring the government to its knees. If we look back at the experience of 19 August 1953 [the overthrow of Iran's Mossadegh Government] and the bitter fate of Iraq and Afghanistan in contemporary history, it should serve as a clear warning that some governments see their own survival in the continuation of this crisis and in intensified hostilities and that they even go as far as encouraging the use of a military offensive.

It is up to the Green movement to create reconciliation by remaining true to its principles while confronting this clear risk. Resistance to potential foreign threats and invasion is a necessity and ashould be an area of focus for the Green Movement. We must demonstrate to our people that the way out of this crisis is to return to the principles and solutions presented by the Green movement since its inception a year ago. The Green Movement should use its influence and power in the international arena to show foreign powers that it will not allow them to take advantage of the weakness and illegitimacy of the current ruling government and harm the territorial integrity and interests of our nation.

The Green Movement will continue to focus on building awareness within all sectors of our society and in doing so will not allow the oppressors [ruling government] to escape from accountability and responsibility towards our nation by creating a crisis and unnecessary military conflict. We will continue to fight the systematic suppression and intimidation of opponents of this government and will not allow them [the ruling government] to focus on their own short-term interests and in doing so compromise our national interests.

The Latest from Iran (7 July): Mousavi's Intervention

1900 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Bail for human rights activist Abdolreza Ahmadi, detained in March, has been set at $150,000.

1820 GMT: The Bazaar Strike and Government Climb-Down. The Los Angeles Times has a good overview of yesterday's developments over the stoppage in the Tehran Bazaar and the Government's reversal of a proposed increase in business tax.

NEW Iran Analysis: Crisis…What Crisis? (Verde)
NEW Iran’s New Haircut Law: First Culprit Identified!
Iran Document: The Mousavi-Khatami Meeting (5 July)
The Latest from Iran (6 July): Compromise?

1815 GMT: Mousavi on Sanctions (and the Economy and the Revolutionary Guard). Agence France Presse offers a useful summary of today's statement by Mir Hossein Mousavi (see 1430 GMT).

Mousavi, in a direct manipulation of the President's words, declared, "To say that this resolution is like a 'used hankie' will not ease the hardships arising from demagogic policies, as it is clear to me that this resolution will affect our nation's security and economy."

Mousavi continued by noting the impact of sanctions and hitting at the Government's folly for bringing Iran down on both the international and economic fronts:

This oppressive resolution ... will decrease GDP, increase unemployment, create more hardships for people and widen the gap between us and other developing nations, especially our neighbours.

[The Iranian people] should know the effect of this resolution ... on their livelihood, inflation, the nation's progress and security. If people are asked to resist (sanctions), then their trust should be earned by telling them the truth.

Mousavi then linked economic woes to the intervention of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps,  "Bringing Sepah [the IRGC] back to its main responsibilities can decrease the greed of enemies ... and decrease the wave of corruption," he said.

1500 GMT: Rumour of Day. Iran Press News is claiming that the Tehran Bazaar, amidst this week's strike by some traders, is under heavy security. It claims there was an attack by men in plainclothes, with one merchant killed.

1430 GMT: A Double Intervention from Mousavi. Mir Hossein Mousavi has followed his Monday meeting with former President Mohammad Khatami with a further comment.

In a note on the recent UN Security Council resolution sanctioning Iran's nuclear programme, Mousavi extends remarks from the Monday meeting that the UN is wrongfully punishing Iran and adds that this is a product of the Ahmadinejad Government's wayward foreign policy.

Mousavi's website Kalemeh publishes a long editorial explaining that Mousavi does not believe church and state should be separates in the development of the Islamic Republic. The editorial is in part a response to an article in the Los Angeles Times that claimed Mousavi, in his recent "Green Charter", had advocated a secular Iranian system. (It is not stated what role, if any, Mousavi played in the writing and publication of the editorial.)

0840 GMT: The Bazaar Strike. Claimed video of yesterday's strike, protesting at a proposed 70% in business taxes, by merchants in the Tehran Bazaar:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCSSy4HZP-U[/youtube]

0700 GMT: We have two contrasting features this morning. Mr Verde takes a long look at the significant anti-Ahmadinejad intervention by MP Ahmad Tavakoli and the Islamic Azad University dispute to ponder, "Crisis...What Crisis?".

If you prefer your news tongue-in-cheek, our top EA news spies have uncovered the first violator of Iran's new guidelines for men's haircuts.

0610 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An appeals court has upheld the six-year prison sentence of reformist activist and journalist Keyvan Samimi Behbahani, who has also been barred from political, social and cultural activities for 15 years.

Samimi Behbahani is the managing director of the banned publication Nameh and is also a member of the committee in charge of investigating the unlawful arrest of individuals.

An appeals court has approved the three-year prison sentence handed down to Arman Rezakhani.

0515 GMT: As the 11th anniversary of the 1999 student protests approaches, there is talk of some public demonstration linking the past to the present challenge to the regime. For the moment, however, this is just a ripple. Monday's Mousavi-Khatami statement, from what we can gather, seems to have brought little reaction: the summary of the meeting is more a declaration of the "Iranian" legitimacy of the opposition's politics --- the most striking passage is the criticism of international sanctions and "Western" support for terrorism --- than a call for public resistance.

Protest, however, is never far from the surface, for Iran is far more than a Green v. Government scenario. International attention is riveted by the growing campaign to halt the stoning of Sakineh Mohammadie Ashtiani for adultery.

Inside Iran, the most striking result on Tuesday was the apparent success of merchants in the Tehran Bazaar. A sudden shut-down by some textile vendors --- there was also news of closures in the jewellry market --- seems to have brought a reversal of plans for a 70% increase in business tax.

On the labour front, the Tehran and Suburbs Bus Drivers Union has again strongly condemned the arrest and intimidation of members Saeed Torabian and Reza Shahabi.

And, far from least, the battle within continues. Later this morning we'll have an analysis of the latest "protest" of Ahmad Tavakoli --- key member of Parliament and ally of Speaker Ali Larijani --- against the Government and President Ahmadinejad.