Israel-Palestine Analysis: The Weight of the West Bank Settlements (Yenidunya)

According to The Jerusalem Post, President Obama will accept Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s suggestion of  ultimate Israeli control over major settlement blocs and an extension of the freeze in all areas outside these blocs in the West Bank. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has also reportedly proposed the creation of a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders, with a possible land swap of 2.3 percent of the West Bank, although this was denied by the chief negotiator Saeb Erekat.

Palestine & Israel: The Situation on the Eve of Obama-Netanyahu Talks

However, according to Haaretz, at least 2,700 new housing units are scheduled to be built in the West Bank as soon as the current settlement freeze ends this September. Regional councils  are preparing to continue constructions already authorized before the freeze decision.

It is not just the 2,700 housing units inside large settlement blocs that matter but the effect of these in negotiations. According to Israeli human rights group B'Tselem, the jurisdiction of councils over settlements covers 42 percent of the land area of the West Bank even though the the settlements take up just 1 percent of the West Bank’s land area.

Meanwhile, on Monday, The New York Times reported that an estimated $200 million in tax-exempt funds were donated to Jewish residents in the West Bank over the last decade, supporting the settlements. Washington does not allow Israel to spend US aid on West Bank settlements, but tax breaks are allowed on charitable donations to the area. Former US ambassador to Israel Daniel C. Kurtzer said the issue was politically delicate: “It drove us crazy, [but]it was a thing you didn’t talk about in polite company.”

Iran Document: The Mousavi-Khatami Meeting (5 July)

A summary of Monday's meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and former President Mohammad Khatami, from Khatami's website via Payvand:

[Mousavi and Khatami] stressed that 1) firm guarantees for the release of political prisoners, 2) the opening and normalization of the current restricted and security atmosphere, and 3) elimination of the obstacles facing the political and cultural activities of the various groups and parties that are in line with the true values of the Islamic Republic and in the framework of the Constitution, as well as holding free and fair elections, were the basic necessities to change the current crisis dominating the country.

Mousavi and Khatami condemned the new UN Security Council resolution and the imposition of new sanctions against Iran, calling this an action against the national security of Iran. They pointed to the concurrence of this resolution with the empowerment of the terrorist groups and their resumption of activities in the West, called it a new conspiracy against Iran. These terrorist groups have the blood of the innocent people of Iran on their hands and have no place among the nation and are a group of dead who have been buried in hatred in the minds of the Iranian people, although the official propaganda and psychological warfare inside the country have brought up their names once again after many years and given an illusion to these terrorists and their western supporters that they are still alive. These international actions that were supported by the big powers are being committed while the crimes of the government of Israel, which were against humanity, not only are not condemned but are being supported.

The former President [Khatami] and the Prime Minister during the Iran-Iraq war [Mousavi], while emphasizing that the great nation of Iran will not allow anyone or any power to interfere in its internal affairs, made it clear that any policy or provocative, unconsidered, or adventurous behavior by government officials that would give an excuse to damage the national security and interest of the country is not acceptable.

Expressing great sadness for the increase in pressures on the [Government's] critics, as well as the continuation of illegal actions and detentions and the increase in the waves of lies and false accusations against renowned figures devoted to the revolution's ideas and defenders of the people's demands and rights who want the prosperity of the country, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Seyyed Mohammad Khatami demanded the formation of a free and safe environment for the people,an atmosphere to criticise the government's policies and actions in economic, political, cultural, and foreign affairs, and the means for everyone's participation in the country's fate.

Condemning the spread of lies and unjustified accusations, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Seyyed Mohammad Khatami pointed out the extensive release of an audio file from several months ago ---- what was mentioned on it was undoubtedly unprecedented in the past thirty years and full of lies, insults and illusions. They called it, contrary to the intention of those who distributed it,  illuminating of many uncertainties in the events before and after the last presidential election and the corruptions surrounding it....

Seyyed Mohammad Khatami and Mir Hossein Mousavi considered the spread of this content, in the name of the decisions of "the establishment", sad and said the lack of confrontation--- against the spread of these illusions, lies, and confessed illegal actions and the collaboration of some official organizations and media with this group--- was shocking.

Khatami and Mousavi emphasised that all should be vigilant against internal and external conspiracies and threat. They should insist on rational demands and expectations  and moving forward within the boundaries of the Constitution. God willing, we will witness the return of everyone to the principles of the Islamic Revolution, the principles of the Constitution, and the high aspirations of the noble people of Iran.

The Latest from Iran (6 July): Compromise?

2047 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert. Press TV plays up the statement of the head of Iran's Trade Promotion Organization that, despite UN sanctions, non-oil exports have grown 27%.

No word in the statement on how oil exports are doing.

Iran & Sanctions: Could Tehran’s Flights Be Grounded?
Iran Analyses: A Rafsanjani-Khamenei Deal on Universities Crisis? (Siavashi and Verde)
The Latest from Iran (5 July): Talks and Conflicts

2045 GMT: Energy News. Iran has finally put out a major oilwell fire which had been raging for 38 days.

2040 GMT: Parliament v. President. Kalemeh has more information on today's attack by legislator Ahmad Tavakoli (see 1230 GMT) on the Government and his claim of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's lack of respect for the law.

1705 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Sasan Aghaei, held from November to April with 40 days in solitary confinement, has been given a one-year prison sentence.

1500 GMT: Parliament v. President. "Conservative" member of Parliament Reza Akrami has issued another denunciation of the recent demonstrations against the Majlis and its bill on control of Islamic Azad University: "Those who insult the Majlis stand apart from hardline principles. What happened was illegal."

1455 GMT: A Minor Strike? Press TV, while referring on today's stoppage by traders at the Tehran Bazaar, says that it was a "minor strike" by "several wholesale cloth traders". The website does note the jewellers' guild has announced it will join the strike on Wednesday (there were reports that some gold traders had closed their doors today).

In what appears to be an immediate reaction to the strike, Mehr News reports that Iran's Ministry of Commerce has reversed its decision to raise business taxes by 70%.

1355 GMT: Defending Iran. An intriguing angle emerging from the Mousavi-Khatami meeting (see 1235 GMT)....

The two men denounced the UN sanctions against Iran, questioning why no similar action had ever been taken against Israel and declaring that the Iranian people will not let any power interfere with their internal affairs". Mousavi and Khatami also criticised "the West" for its support of "terrorist groups".

1235 GMT: Meetings. Former President Mohammad Khatami's website has published a summary of his meeting on Monday with Mir Hossein Mousavi (see 1125 GMT).

1230 GMT: Parliament v. President. Another challenge from key member of Parliament Ahmad Tavakoli, who has said in a speech --- my paraphrase --- "How dare the President say that the law does not apply to him."

1220 GMT: The Bazaar Strike. Peyke Iran claims that this morning's strike in the Tehran Bazaar (see 1120 GMT) over Government taxes was in the gold and textile markets.

1215 GMT: Airlines, Sanctions, and Safety. A new twist in the tale of Iran's possibly-grounded flights: the European Union has banned most of Iran Air's jets from flying to Europe. EU officials denied that the measure was connected to international and US sanctions, with a spokesperson insisting, "We deal purely with safety requirements. Our controls focus entirely on safety, nothing else."

1130 GMT: Press Un-Freedom. One weekly publication in Tehran Province, Madineye Goftogu, has been banned for "slander of officials" and three others have received warnings.

1125 GMT: Discussions. Aftab News reports that Mir Hossein Mousavi and former President Mohammad Khatami have met to discuss the domestic situation and international sanctions.

1120 GMT: Economy Watch. Kalemeh claims, from eyewitnesses, that there was "unrest and strikes" amongst merchants, protesting over Government tax policy, in the Tehran Bazaar this morning.

1115 GMT: The International Front. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has criticised unilateral US sanctions in a news briefing: "China has already noted that the United States and other parties have unilaterally put in place further sanctions against Iran. Not long ago, the U.N. Security Council approved resolution 1929. China believes that the Security Council resolution should fully, seriously and correctly be enforced and cannot be wilfully elaborated on to expand Security Council sanctions measures."

Meanwhile, the head of the Iran-United Arab Emirates Chamber of Commerce says the managers of two companies linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guard Corps have had their bank accounts frozen in response to the latest UN sanctions: “Khatam al-Anbiya and their subsidiaries, and companies that they thought were involved in Iran’s atomic work, are on the list.”

0830 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Parvin Jamalzadeh, detained on Ashura (27 December) has been sentenced to 8 1/2 years in prison for acting against national security by participating in illegal gatherings, disturbing public order, committing blasphemy, and insulting the Supreme Leader.

Journalist Emaduddin Baghi's court appearance has been postponed to mid-August.

Rooz Online publishes an interview with the daughter of Mohammad Seddigh Kaboudvand, the founder and president of the Kurdistan Human Rights Defense Organization, who is entering the fourth year of a 10-year prison sentence.

Tonia Kaboudvand speaks of worries over her father's health and says, “Human rights activists and defenders have been silent about my father’s situation and have over time forgotten about it.”

0810 GMT: Investment v. Sanctions. Rooz Online summarises this interesting development: Iran is removing barriers to foreign banks operating in the country.

Deutsche Welle, however, notes that sanctions are causing increasing difficulties for European companies such as EON and RWE to invest in Iran's energy sector.

0755 GMT: Attack on the Clerics. Ahmad Montazeri, the son of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, has reiterated that the attack on his family's house last month was carried out in the presence of some government officials.

0745 GMT: The Labour Front. Iranian Labor News Agency reports that 500 workers at the Abadan oil refinery have protested and gone on strike over unpaid wages.

0715 GMT: Halting Democracy? Green Voice of Freedom claims that the recent Parliamentary decision to postponing municipal elections is the first step in a plan, backed by the Supreme Leader, to eliminate all elections.

0705 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. And, amidst the talk of a Khamenei-Rafsanjani deal to avert immediate political crisis, two stories in Rah-e-Sabz that indicate others in the Government are still trying to cut down the former President.

The website claims that Rafsanjani was banned from ceremonies last week marking the "7 Tir" bombing of 1981. And it reports that the head of the office of Yasser Hashemi, Rafsanjani's youngest son, was arrested yesterday.

0700 GMT: Then Again.... Back to our opening story on the supposed resolution of the Islamic Azad University crisis through the Supreme Leader's intervention. A member of the Supreme Council for Cultural Revolution has said that the suspension of the SCCR's decision --- which effectively overrules Parliament and backs President Ahmadinejad --- is only temporary.

Press TV is now reporting on Khamenei's letter to Ahmadinejad and Rafsanjani "suspending" any decision on the university.

0650 GMT: Parliament v. Government. The Majlis is insisting that it should have the authority, as prescribed by the Constitution, to review treaties with foreign countries or companies.

The declaration should be seen in the specific context of the intervention by Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani and other legislators in the international manoeuvres over Iran's uranium enrichment.

0640 GMT: Flashback of Resistance. Green Voice of Freedom recalls Mir Hossein's final appearance on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting: "Death, yes. Retreat, never."

0630 GMT: Sanctions and Iran's Airlines. More follow-up from our story yesterday that US-led sanctions on fuel for Iranian aircraft may be grounding flights....

The Iranian Foreign Ministry has denied this morning that any flights are being affected and insists that supplies are uninterrupted.

The German Government has again said that fuel has been refused. That, however, does not cover the possibility that private companies --- like BP, who said yesterday that it had suspended deliveries --- have cut off supplies.

0530 GMT: We begin this morning with another check on the state of the universities crisis between President, Parliament, and Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Iranian media are taking the line that the Supreme Leader has ordered a suspension of both the Parliament's bill and the intervention of the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution, which in effect backed President Ahmadinejad's control of the university. It is unclear what Khamenei's decision means for the future of the institution; the university's new President was supposed to be appointed yesterday.

It is notable, however, that the suspension effectively recognised the current arrangements: 1) the Supreme Leader's order was announced by the university’s board of trustees; 2) Khamenei's directive went not only to Ahmadinejad and the SCCR but also Rafsanjani as "Board of Trustees Director".

Israel-Turkey: The Latest on the Threat to Cut Military Ties

Responding to his Turkish counterpart Ahmet Davutoglu's threat to cut ties with Israel, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman stated that Israel would not be apologising to Ankara over the flotilla events. He said, "Every nation chooses its own diplomacy and to my sorrow Turkey has chosen the wrong direction."

However, speaking to the Knesset, Israel's army chief Gabi Ashkenazi said that military ties between Israel and Turkey remained strong despite political tension. Although Turkish airspace is now closed to the Israeli military (except for deliveries to Ankara) and joint operations have been suspended, Ashkenazi noted that the Turkish military had contributed the  lead article to the June issue of the Israel Defense Forces' magazine.

Israel Snap Analysis: Defense Minister Barak’s Win-Win Strategy?
Israel-Turkey Special: How Serious is Ankara’s Threat to Cut Relations? (Yenidunya)

What was Ashkenazi's message to his government? Is he indicating that the army is not happy with the political friction or is he accepting the dispute, while indicating there should be no further damage to relations?

Israel Snap Analysis: Defense Minister Barak's Win-Win Strategy?

On Sunday, Isrraeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Industry, Trade and Labor Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer had heated argument  during a Labor Party meeting.

Barak's associates  said he had opposed the secret meeting between Ben-Eliezer and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in Zurich and told Prime Minister Netanyahu as much, though he ultimately decided not to veto the mission. Ben-Eliezer was angry with Barak cause he is accusing Barak of leaking information of the meeting with Turks. He allegedly told Barak's media spokesman, Barak Seri, "I'll skewer you. I am Iraqi. You don't know who are dealing with."

If it is true that it was the Defense Minsitry leaking the meeting to media --- and not the Foreign Minsitry of Avigdor Lieberman, as was initally reported --- then what is on Barak's mind? Is this a win-win strategy: if Netanyahu is not capable of dealing with Lieberman, then Barak takes over while if the Prime Minister succeeds, Barak grabs a portion as Lieberman leaves the coalition?