Iran: Green Message to Obama "Back Us Instead of Dealing With Ahmadinejad"

The Iran Cul-de-Sac: 4 Points on Obama’s Embrace of Ahmadinejad (and Rejection of the Green Movement)
The Latest from Iran (20 November): Manoeuvres in Washington

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UPDATED 1335 GMT: The Washington Times also has a report on the speech. The headline points are the same as those in the Wall Street Journal as is the description of Makhmalbaf, who "has become a spokesman outside Iran for the so-called Green Movement since the country's disputed June 12 presidential
election".

UPDATED 1045 GMT: EA's Mr Smith has done some checking on the important question, raised by our readers, "To what extent does Makhmalbaf represent the Green Movement and Mir Hossein Mousavi?" The response, from those well-connected and well-versed in Iranian politics, is that "Makhmalbaf is not really connected with Mousavi. Nevertheless, Makhmalbaf acts at the least as a roving public ambassador for him."

Earlier this month, we learned of attempts from inside and outside the Green movement to persuade the Obama Administration to back away from an agreement with Tehran on uranium enrichment and the nuclear programme. That effort is in the open this morning.

The Wall Street Journal reveals the Washington mission by Mohsen Makhmalbaf, the filmmaker, "Presidential campaign spokesman for Mir Hossein Mousavi", and "international spokesman for Iran's main opposition movement". Speaking at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, he called for "President Barack Obama to increase his public support for Iranian democrats and significantly intensify financial pressure on Tehran's elite military unit, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps".

As for the nuclear discussions, Makhmalbaf said "that Iranian opposition leaders supported U.S. efforts to use diplomacy to contain the nuclear ambitions of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's government". He warned, however, that the current talks would not produce an agreement and should be suspended:

If they agree not to pursue a nuclear bomb and start negotiations, they will lose their supporters. Definitely dialogue is better than war. ... But can you continue your dialogue without any results?

Makhmalbaf suggested an agenda beyond the talks, with the targeted economic measures against the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps: "We need certain sanctions that put pressure on the government but not the people. But they must be done quickly, or they won't have an impact."

Most importantly, Makhmalbaf tried to replace the current nuclear-first priority of the Obama Administration with a democracy-first approach:

We definitely want Obama to say he supports democracy...If he doesn't say that, he will lose his support in Iran.

Don't only focus on the nuclear issue and allow the Iranian government to crack down on the people. You need to focus on human rights.

And, although it is not noted by the Journal, I suspect Makhmalbaf's visit had another essential aim. With the speech at the high-profile Carnegie Endowment, he is trying to repair the damage caused by last month's talk by Ataollah Mohajerani, a former Khatami Government minister and associate of Mehdi Karroubi, at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Mohajerani's speech, interpreted (wrongly, we think) by some Washington insiders as a Green manifesto, alienated US support because of its "hard-line" statements on nuclear weapons and Iran's position on Israel.

Makhmalbaf avoided those potential pitfalls on Thursday. Doing so, he is reaching out to officials in the State Department, the National Security Council, and Obama's White House (even if the CIA remains hostile to a Green ascendancy). We are not dead. You can work with us.

And now the follow-up: will he get a response?

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The Latest from Iran (18 November): Bubbling and Surfacing

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2055 GMT: Keeping the Students Down. The Government effort to contain student protest continues. Iran's national student organisation Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat reports that its political director, Abbas Hakimzadeh, has been arrested.

Kohzad Esmaili, head of the Gilan branch of the alumni organisation Advar-Tahkim-Vahdat (Office of Strengthening Unity), has been re-arrested after being freed on $20,000 bail.

2045 GMT: A Non-Crowd Story? While those pre-occupied with the nuclear issue try to read Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's Tabriz speech for signals (see 1425 GMT), the Green movement has other concerns, namely those who did or did not turn out:

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad received a very cold welcome from the citizens. Yoldash, the Green news organisation in Tabriz, reported that, despite the fact that the chief of "popular welcoming staff" of Ahmadinejad assured 100,000 people would be present at his speech today, only about 10-15,000 people participated in this event which can be easily recognized in the pictures taken by pro-coup Mehr news agency.

An EA source says that the Government tried to ensure a large turnout by giving university students, school children, and workers time off and transport to the rally. However, possibly because of the rain, possibly for other reasons, seats remained empty.

1805 GMT: Is Rafsanjani Lining Up with the Government's Nuclear Proposal? Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has told the Swedish Ambassador to Iran that the International Atomic Energy Agency is legally obliged to provide 20 percent nuclear fuel to Tehran.

Sweden currently holds the European Union's rotating presidency.

1800 GMT: Clinton Speaks Out? Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared to journalists in Kabul:

It is a very unfortunate, distressing development to see these sentences handed down in Iran, imposing the death penalty on people who participated in expressing their opposition to the government in demonstrating in the streets.It underscores the approach that the government in Iran takes for their own people.

We will continue to stand up for the rights of the people of Iran to speak for themselves, to have their votes counted, to be given an opportunity to have the measure of freedom and rights that any person deserves to have

1755 GMT: What Happened on Election Night? We've posted the account of Abolfazl Fateh, the editor of Ghalam News, a paper close to Mir Hossein Mousavi.

1550 GMT: Football Politics. In its latest friendly match, Iran's national football team drew 1-1 with Macedonia. The Tehran Times says 1000 people attended; an EA source says the number was closer to 500.

Still, that's better than the 100 who turned up at the match earlier this month with Iceland.

1455 GMT: The Clerics Plot. An EA source brings intriguing information from Qom. On Wednesday, Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi and Ayatollah Nouri-Hamedani, whom Karroubi wrote last week, discussed next moves in the post-election crisis. Nouri-Hamedani reportedly said,  "I am ready to go to Tehran and talk to both sides" about a plan for national unity, and the two clerics (possibly joined by others) decided to seek a meeting with the Supreme Leader.

1440 GMT: And What is "The West" Doing? "Six world powers will meet in Brussels to discuss what measures could be applied against Tehran for its refusal to halt its nuclear enrichment program, an EU official said Thursday. Friday's meeting will include the U.N. Security Council's permanent members — Britain, China, France, Russia and the U.S. — plus Germany, the official said on condition of anonymity because she was not authorized to disclose details of the gathering."

1435 GMT: Negotiating from Strength, I Tell You. And hundreds of miles away in The Philippines, Foreign Minister Mottaki --- having put the Iranian counter-offer on uranium enrichment --- is serving as Ahmadinejad's wingman, warning against further sanctions on Iran: "“I think they [the world powers] are wise enough not to repeat failed experiences. Of course it's totally up to them."

1425 GMT: Mahmoud's Negotiating from Strength. Back from an academic break to read about President Ahmadinejad's speech in Tabriz today. His twin-track rhetoric is now established: the door is open to agreement with "the West", but Iran is holding that door open out of its principled leadership in the world, not out of weakness:

Iran is a nation supportive of peace and friendship and backs constructive cooperation on the international arena. Tehran is therefore ready to cooperate with the international community in different arenas including the revival of economy and the establishment of stable security across the globe....

....Iran is not after aggression. It only seeks its legal rights ... Those who say they want constructive interaction should know that...if the Iranian nation witnesses a genuine transparent change of their policy…if they respect the rights of the Iranian nation…if they honestly extend their hand of friendship then the people of Iran will accept [such overture]....

But the President added, "They should also know that if they are after deception and corruption in our region,” the Iranian nation would be the same “decisive” answer that it has already given to arrogant powers.

1140 GMT: Worst Media "Analysis" of the Day. In The Wall Street Journal, Mark "Black Hawk Down" Bowden explains, "How Iran's [1979] Revolution Was Hijacked". The historical part of the article is OK, with Bowden --- who has written a book on the US Embassy crisis -- claiming, "Nine months after Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi fled it was still unclear what kind of government Iran was going to have....[Ayatollah Khomeini] was ambivalent about the idea of clerical rule."

It's Bowden's jump to 2009 that turns reflection into farce: "So 30 years after seizing power, the mullahs of Qom find themselves in a difficult spot. To turn back the domestic tide of reform they must employ the very tools employed by the despised shah—mass arrests and trials, torture, execution and censorship."

Which "mullahs of Qom" would these be? Montazeri? Sane'i? Bayat-Zanjani? Dastgheib? Safi Golpaygani? Makarem Shirazi?

1050 GMT: The Preview of the Deal? Press TV, quoting from the Islamic Republic News Agency, has just posted a significant statement from Iran's envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, who says that UN inspectors will visit the second uranium enrichment facility at Fordoo today.

Here is the key line, however, from Soltanieh: "This site will from now on be under the IAEA supervision." That may be an unsubtle olive branch to the international community for the bigger deal: you can oversee our facilities inside Iran, so you can trust that we'll let you oversee uranium stocks as well.

1000 GMT: So What About Those Sanctions? President Obama may be issuing the warning that he's opening up a can of economic pain if Iran does not accept a nuclear deal, but the signals --- which we've noted for weeks --- are that the US is limited in what it can do:

Western powers are gearing up for talks on a fourth round of U.N. sanctions against Tehran over its nuclear program but will not target Iran's energy sector to ensure Russia's and China's support....The scaling back of the West's expectations for new U.N. steps against Iran for defying Security Council demands to stop enriching uranium shows that the Europeans and Americans have accepted that Moscow and Beijing, with their close trade ties to Tehran, will not let Iran's economy be crippled.

Diplomats said the Western powers are eager to ratchet up the pressure on the Islamic Republic. But they also need to keep Moscow and Beijing on board to send a clear signal to Tehran that the world's big powers are united against it.

If there is a move for UN sanctions, they will target "at least another bank, more individuals, more companies -- possibly a shipping company -- a tighter ban on arms, possibly political measures". Meanwhile, Washington will fall back on the notion that it can organise multilateral restrictions outside the United Nations. Steps could include a ban on Euro transactions for Iranian and withholding technology to produce liquefied natural gas.

0855 GMT: Extending our initial update (0650 GMT), Mr Smith brings us the Analysis of the Day, considering the latest Iranian offer in the nuclear talks and advising the "West" how to respond to it.

0815 GMT: Anticipating the protests of 16 Azar (7 December), we have posted a video "advertisement" for the demonstrations which is a pretty good parody: Welcome to "The Pirates of the Persian Gulf".

0800 GMT: Away from the nuclear issue, Michael Slackman of The New York Times has picked up on the case of Ramin Pourandarjan, the 26-year-0ld physician at Kahrizak Prison who died in mysterious circumstances (see our updates throughout this week).

0650 GMT: International media is likely to be dominated this morning by stories on the nuclear negotiations. Most outlets have noted Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's counter-proposal, replacing the delivery of 50-80% of Iran's uranium stock to Russia with a "swap" inside Iran of 20% enriched uranium for Tehran's 3.5% supply. And almost all are jumping on the soundbite reactions, from French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner to President Obama.

Obama warned again that time was short for a deal and "consequences" would follow if Iran did not accept an agreement. He did the same on Sunday but, on this occasion, he added a tough if vague post-script: "Our expectations are that over the next several weeks we will be developing a package of potential steps that we could take that will indicate our seriousness to Iran." (It's notable that not only international media like Al Jazeera but also Iran's state broadcaster Press TV are carrying the story.)

But do the news agencies really have a handle on what is going on? CNN, for example, headlines, "Iran rejects key part of nuclear deal" and drops in, as one line in a 26-paragraph story, "Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said Iran might allow its nuclear material to be reprocessed inside Iran."

In contrast, the Los Angeles Times devotes almost all of its article to Mottaki's statement. Its headline and opening sentence, however, are just as negative: "Iran's foreign minister vowed Wednesday that his nation wouldn't allow any of its enriched uranium supply out of the country." This is "either a dismissal of a U.S.- and United Nations-backed proposal to ease international tensions over Iran's nuclear program by lowering Tehran's supply below the threshold required to make a bomb, or an attempt by Iran to haggle over the deal".

None of the coverage considers that, from the perspective of the Ahmadinejad Government (and possibly others), Mottaki's response is far from a rejection or a dismissal. Instead, it is a counter-offer which keeps the discussions alive --- indeed, I suspect it may have come out of talks with International Atomic Energy head Mohammad El Baradei. It puts the question to the US and its partners: will they accept a bargain in which Iran's uranium supply is swapped for 20% fuel which is for civilian rather than military purposes? Or is the initial export and warehousing of the majority of Tehran's low-enriched supply an unconditional requirement?

Beyond the negotiating table, Mottaki's statement is a pointer to another story, one which I suspect will go unnoticed today. In the context of the Iranian establishment, this is an attempt to bring peace between battling factions. President Ahmadinejad wants an agreement --- not perpetual "haggling" but an agreement --- and Mottaki's suggestion keeps open that prospect. Others (the Larijanis? the Supreme Leader?) have consented to or been forced to accept the opening.

If the Washington-led "5+1" powers reject that proposal, however, what next? What next not only for the nuclear discussions but also for the interna contests in Iran?

The Latest from Iran (18 November): Bubbling and Surfacing

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The Iran Cul-de-Sac: 4 Points on Obama’s Embrace of Ahmadinejad (and Rejection of the Green Movement)

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2105 GMT: Apparently Saeed Sharati was freed "on the order of Tehran's Revolutionary Court", which seems like an acquittal. If so, that would be to my knowledge the first release of a prominent reformist after a trial.

2045 GMT: Carrot and Stick. Is the Government showing confidence that it has the reformists under control with a combination of jail sentences for some and releases for others? Saeed Shariati, a high-ranking Islamic Iran Participation Front members detained for more than three months, and Ashkan Mojallali, Mahdieh Minooie, and Iman Mirabzadeh, arrested at a prayer gathering last month, were freed --- presumably on bail --- earlier today.

1820 GMT: When Analyses Attack. From this morning's post: "One explanation for the shift may be that the Government’s 5+ months of restrictions on the communications and movements of the oppositonal leadership, “supported” by detentions and trials, have worn down the scope of the leadership’s declarations and ambitions."

This afternoon's news: "Rasoul Montajeb-Nia, the vice chairman of the Etemad Melli party [of Mehdi Karroubi] in an interview said that they are waiting for the authorities to remove the ban on this party's main office for further legal operation and activities."

Meanwhile, former President Mohammad Khatami visited Fatemeh Shahidi, a journalist for the reformist (and suspended) Etemade Melli newspape,) who was recently released after months in detention.

1355 GMT: Is This the End of the Nuclear Deal? Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has made a declaration to the Islamic Students News Agency which appears to be significant:

We reviewed [the Vienna proposal] from an economic and technical aspect. We will definitely not send out our 3.5 percent enriched uranium....We will [instead] consider swapping the fuel simultaneously in Iran....Iranian experts are reviewing the issue of swap to see how much fuel can be transferred. The amount they mentioned for the swap is not acceptable ... and our experts are still studying it.

If I read this correctly, Iran is proposing that a delivery of "20 percent uranium" be brought in from outside the country and swapped for Iran's "3.5 percent uranium". That would mean no initial reduction in Iran's overall uranium stock of 1500 kilogrammes --- the Vienna proposal would have taken up to 80 percent outside Iran for enrichment in Russia.

Considered this way, the question thrown back at the "5+1" countries is whether they can accept that the existing level of uranium production and stock will remain inside Iran's border and thus in its control. That's not a death blow to the negotiations; as Mottaki noted in another interview:

Q: From what I gather, you are looking to modify the basic P5+1 proposal but U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said this is a ‘take it or leave it’ offer.

A: In diplomacy, we do not have zero or hundred. Therefore, flexibility is considered the essence of diplomacy. I believe this, and I guess the American side will understand this point as well…. Earlier, when they wanted to talk to us, they put some preconditions (like suspension of enrichment).But today they are talking and participating in talks without any preconditions.

However, the swap suggestion could be a measure too far for the US and European countries. As Mottaki noted, "We have called for another meeting of the technical people who were part of Vienna talks and we will explain our considerations. But so far such meeting has not convened."

1305 GMT: Iran's chief of police Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam has declared that the death of Ramin Pourandarjan, the 26-year-old physician at Kahrizak Prison, "was the result of suicide. The doctor had complaints of being threatened with a five-year jail term and had lost his spirit." Previously, state media said Pourandarjan had suffered a heart attack or stroke (see updates earlier this week).

"He committed suicide after he was summoned to the court."

1255 GMT: Journalist Kambiz Norouzi has been sentenced to two years in prison and 76 lashes after conviction "advertising against the establishment" and participating in post-election protests.

Ali Behzadiyan-Nejad, the nephew of Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign manager, has been sentenced to six years in prison for “disturbing the security of the country” and “advertising against the establishment”. Behzadiyan’s lawyer said some of the evidence used against  by the prosecutor were “comments people wrote in [Behzadiyan's] personal blog”.

1225 GMT: Don't Do It. The commander of Basij militia, Mohammad Reza Naqdi, has warned that his forces will confront any further "street riots". Naqdi claimed that demonstrators had staged riots in response to calls from US-based satellite stations run by Iranian expatriates: "Those groups that chant slogans against the revolution's values ... should know that they will be confronted by Basij."

1015 GMT: The Banknote Rebellion. Soon after the post-election crisis began, protesters began inscribing Green slogans and criticism of the Government on Iranian banknotes. An EA reader points us to the follow-up story that the Central Bank of Iran has tried to take the banknotes out of circulation, but with so many about, they have given up the effort.

1000 GMT: Nuclear Manoeuvres. Trying to offset apparent pressure from Russia, the spokesman for Parliament's National Security Commission insists that the Bushehr nuclear reactor will soon be operational. Russian officials said earlier this week that the plant would be delayed past its proposed opening date of the end of 2009.

0930 GMT: A Surfacing from Raf? An interesting article, given the relative silence of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani since August. Emrooz, the newspaper linked to Tehran mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, claims inside information from a meeting of Rafsanjani with several former members of Parliament.

One of those former MPs says Rafsanjani set four conditions, first offered in his 17 July sermon, for his return to Tehran Friday Prayers: the release of political prisoners, support for those injured in post-election conflict, rebuilding of relations with Grand Ayatollahs and clerics, and an opening-up of state radio and television to different viewpoints. Another source claims, “Without naming any specific individual, Hashemi warned against the growth of a movement that seeks to ignore the regime’s achievements and implicate everyone who cares about the regime.”

0920 GMT: A later start this morning, as we worked on an analysis of the shifts in the Green movement and their significance; even as leaders show caution in their statements, the signs of a long-term but far-from-disappearing movement persist. We have also posted the Public Broadcasting Service documentary, shown in the US last night, "A Death in Tehran" on the story of Neda Agha Soltan and the post-election protests.

Regular readers will note our frequent references to and use of sources from the Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi. Tehran Bureau has a profile of the man behind the site, Mohammad Sadeghi.

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1740 GMT: Judge for Yourself. We've posted a copy of the IAEA report on Iran's nuclear facilities. In my opinion, it's a slap on the wrist from the Agency for Iran for not declaring the second enrichment facility before September 2009 and for saying it was begun in 2007 (the IAEA goes for 2006). The IAEA also wants an assurance there are no more nuclear surprises out there. But that, in contrast to the overblown press coverage, is about it.

1715 GMT: Iran Human Rights Voices Reports that 48 protesters detained during 13 Aban demonstrations in Shiraz went on trial on 11 November.

1653 GMT: Spin, Spin, Spinning Iran (see 1555 GMT). Some folks somewhere really want to kill off the idea of engagement by putting out the story of an Iran that breaks its agreements in pursuit of The Bomb. They hope to do so by framing the "Iran threat" in the latest International Atomic Energy report on uranium enrichment, before the IAEA discusses it on 26 November.

In The Washington Post: "A senior official said Monday that the U.N nuclear agency believes Iran plans to start enriching uranium at a previously secret facility in 2011. The official said the International Atomic Energy Agency also believes that the site near the holy city of Qom will be able to house 3,000 uranium-enriching centrifuges. The senior international official familiar with a new IAEA report said that number could allow Iran to enrich enough material to be able to arm one nuclear warhead a year. He spoke on condition of anonymity because of the restricted nature of the information."

In Bloomberg News: "The United Nations atomic agency has lost confidence that the Persian Gulf country is telling the whole truth about its nuclear program and isn’t hiding additional secret facilities. Iran’s Qom enrichment facility, revealed in a Sept 21 letter, 'reduces the level of confidence in the absence of other nuclear facilities under construction and gives rise to questions about whether there were any other nuclear facilities in Iran which had not been declared,' the International Atomic Energy Agency said today in a 7-page report obtained by Bloomberg News.

On Al Jazeera: "Iran's belated revelation of a second uranium enrichment site has raised concerns about possible further secret nuclear sites in the country. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) raised its fears in a report obtained by several news agencies on Monday."

1644 GMT: A group of activists have gathered in Shiraz to collect signatures for a statement supporting Grand Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib, who has been an outspoken critic of the Iranian Government.

1630 GMT: The Death of the Prison Doctor. Speculation is spreading about Ramin Pourandarjan, the physician on duty at the infamous Kahrizak Prison, who was said last week to have died from a heart attack or stroke.

It is claimed that Iranian security forces did not allow any autopsy and that the funeral of the 26-year-old Pourandarjan took place with security agents present. Pourandarjan had allegedly been detained for leaking patients' files and telling close friends about the abuse of detainees and, after his released, warned against making any further revelations.

1620 GMT: Free the Journalist. More than 50 Iranian writers and journalists have signed an open letter to the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, urging him to release Javad Mahzadeh. Mahzadeh was detained more than a month ago.

1615 GMT: Fearing a Loss of Control? Speaking to reformist members of Parliament, Mehdi Karroubi has urged young protesters to refrain from "violent behaviour". Following similar statements by former President Mohammad Khatami, Karroubi's advice may be an indication that opposition leaders fear an angry and frustrated movement will go further in their demonstrations of resistance.



1555 GMT: Spinning Iran. The political battle over Iran's nuclear programme --- friend or foe? --- is being played out again in the media with the framing of the latest report from the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The report is the IAEA's summary of its inspection of the second uranium enrichment site near Qom. Although the IAEA itself has said it found nothing out of the ordinary, others, including sceptics within the agency, are hoping to find suspicious evidence. So they have leaked parts of the report to Reuters, who declare that the project began in 2002, paused in 2004, and resumed in 2006.

Much more interesting, however, is Reuters' headline, unsupported in the article, "Iran revelation could mean more secret sites".

1455 GMT: Russia Keeps Up Pressure. Meanwhile, Moscow --- in its role as the broker for an uranium enrichment agreement and following Sunday's warning by Presidents Obama and Medvedev that a deal needed to be completed soon --- may have just given Tehran a warning slap.

The Russians have announced that the opening of the Bushehr nuclear plant, scheduled for the end of 2009, has been delayed yet again. Russian Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko insisted that the postponement was due to technical difficulties, but --- call us cynics --- the timing of the declaration is a bit more than curious.

1450 GMT: Who's Pushing the Nuke Talks? Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

It can't get much clearer than this:

As the West continues to threaten Tehran with fresh sanctions, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad expresses readiness to enhance nuclear cooperation with Western countries.

"The Islamic Republic of Iran is ready to have constructive cooperation with Western countries on nuclear technology," Iranian Student News Agency (ISNA) quoted Ahmadinejad as saying on Monday...."Nuclear rights of the Iranian nation are non-negotiable and our nuclear cooperation and activities will be carried out within the framework of the International Atomic Energy Agency."

1435 GMT: Who's Pushing the Nuke Talks Inside Iran? Press TV has an intriguing post, "Turkey Still Wants Role in Iran Nuclear Deal".

The website quotes, from Turkish newspapers, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's statement that Turkey is still happy to serve as the third country in an uranium enrichment deal. Iranian uranium would shipped to Russia for enrichment and then held/reshaped by Turkey as metal plates for uses in Iran's medical research reactor. Davutoglu said, "From our point of view, the door is open. We will store that [uranium] as a kind of a trustee."

That, however, is not the significant part of the story. Rather, it's the fact that it appears at all (and indeed has been at least the second story run by Press TV on these lines in the last few days) despite the rejection by Iranian politicians of the proposal for a Turkey broker, offered by the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad El Baradei, almost two weeks ago.

Indeed, Press TV uses Davutoglu to highlight the tension, "The Iranians trust us... but there is a great opposition within Iran. They say the problem is not Turkey, but the fact that the uranium will be taken abroad."

Which raises the question: if the deal was supposedly blocked by Tehran, why does the Turkish possibility keep re-appearing? Could it be that sources close to President Ahmadinejad are ensuring that Press TV keeps the option alive?

Although Tehran has ruled out the participation of third parties in a nuclear fuel deal with the West, Turkey says it is awaiting Iran's response on an offer to store the country's enriched uranium stockpile.
1420 GMT: We're back from our first break since 13 June in 24/7 blogging on the post-election crisis. Just catching up with the latest news inside and outside Iran: meanwhile, we have a new entry updating on the domestic political squabble in the US over the National Iranian American Committee.

Meanwhile, I have used the last 48 hours to review sources for what I hope will be a major re-evaluation of the Obama Administration's approach to the Iranian Government the nuclear talks, and the Green Movement. The aim is to post this tomorrow but here's a teaser:

1. IT'S THE NUKES, STUPID --- "The driving force for the Obama Administration's approach to Iran is the quest for an agreement on uranium enrichment."

2. GETTING THE GREEN MOVEMENT WRONG --- "What is astounding is how a Washington distraction, an appearance by Ataollah Mohajerani at a conference, became the foundation for some in the CIA to bury and/or fear the Green movement."

3. THE MYTH OF THE PLAN B: SANCTIONS --- "How can a stricter round of sanctions, if nuclear talks break down, change Ayatollah Khamenei's positions?"

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1900 GMT: An EA source tips us off to an on-line presentation from last month, "Debating Engagement: A Critical Dialogue on Iran and the Peace Movement".

1820 GMT: Iran's state Arabic-language satellite service Al-Alam is on air again after the French company Eutelsat agreed to carry its programmes. Al-Alam's former providers, the Saudi- and Egypt-based Arabsat and Nilesat, withdrew on 3 November.

1620 GMT: Families of political prisoners have gathered for the third time in front of offices of Iran's judiciary, calling for the release of all political prisoners and demanding the administration of law and justice for all. The families met representatives of the judiciary but failed to get an audience with the head of the judiciary, Sadegh Larijani.

At the end of this gathering, the families asked for the immediate release of those arrested during prayer and of innocent women. They called for “conducting public fair trials”, “allowing the prisoners to have the right of choosing their lawyers and naming those who are obstructing this right”, “identifying those who are putting pressure on some of the post-election prisoners’ families”, and “expediting court hearings and immediate release of those imprisoned with reduced bail".

1545 GMT: Punishing the Protesters. Pictures of orders banning students from their dormitories are now circulating on the Internet.

1535 GMT: For My Next Trick, I Will Solve Traffic Jams. This is either political genius or massive overconfidence: in the midst of conflicts over the economy, the nuclear issues, and his own legitimacy, President Ahmadinejad has declared his urgent priority to clear Tehran's roads: "We have solutions for Tehran and I believe I will soon have to personally intervene in Tehran's issues because I see that the traffic situation is making our citizens suffer."

Go a bit deeper, and you'll find a political battle which is far more than Mahmoud jumping into the middle of the Modarres Expressway to direct traffic. This is another play for power against an opponent within the establishment, in this case, Tehran Mayor Mohammad Baqer-Qalibaf:

Ahmadinejad went on to say that his administration plans to take over the control of the Tehran Metro Company from the municipality. The remarks came as the Tehran Municipality and government are in disagreement about providing the capital's subway system with state subsidies. The president also called on...Qalibaf and the Tehran City Council to agree with shifting the management of the metro to the government.

1110 GMT: Responsible Journalism? Marc Champion of The Wall Street Journal offers the dramatic story, "Revolutionary Guard Tightens Security Grip":

Seven different agencies have now been subordinated to...the Intelligence Organization of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, gutting the intelligence ministry of power....The seven agencies include the old intelligence directorate of the Revolutionary Guard, as well as its cyberdefense unit; the intelligence directorate of the Basij; parts of the now-gutted intelligence ministry; Mr. Khamenei's own intelligence unit, known as Office 101; and the plainclothes units and Tehran Revolutionary Guard headquarters tasked with controlling street protests in the capital.he seven agencies include the old intelligence directorate of the Revolutionary Guard, as well as its cyberdefense unit; the intelligence directorate of the Basij; parts of the now-gutted intelligence ministry; Mr. Khamenei's own intelligence unit, known as Office 101; and the plainclothes units and Tehran Revolutionary Guard headquarters tasked with controlling street protests in the capital.

Pretty serious news. Only problem is that Champion's information, initially cited as "interviews with Iranian analysts and opposition figures, along with recent government announcements", turns out to be a single source: Maryam Rajavi of the opposition group National Council for Resistance in Iran.

At no point does Champion note that the NCRI is the political arm of the Mujahedin-e-Khalq, the group which for 30 years has sought the overthrow of the Iranian regime through violence and assassinations (he does put the qualification, "The NCRI is listed in the U.S. as a terrorist organization, though not in Europe). And nowhere does he notes that the NCRI --- as the group that he says is "responsible for exposing much of Iran's controversial nuclear-fuel program" --- has also been challenged over the years for providing distorted and inaccurate information.

1100 GMT: More University Protests (see 1000 GMT). Video has come in of yesterday's protest at Khaje Nasir University, where demonstrations have been occurring on a daily basis for more than a week.

1015 GMT: So Much for the Lull --- Ahmadi's Nuclear Push. Press TV summarises President Ahmadinejad's televised interview on Wednesday night as a claim that "the West has retreated in its nuclear dispute with Tehran, as it is no longer talking of suspension of Iran's uranium enrichment activities".

Ahmadinejad, declared, "We have now entered a stage of cooperation. At the moment, one of the key issues is Iran's participation in projects such as the international [nuclear] fuel bank or reactor and plant construction. There is no more talk of suspension. We have reached a stage where we are cooperating, on a high level, with other countries that have the technology through the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)."

Interpretation? This is the clear indication that the President doesn't just want continued nuclear discussions; he's looking for a deal. He is setting up the presentation that an agreement on enrichment in a third country, accompanied by acceptance of Iran into international projects, will be a great "victory" with the West bowing down and recognising Tehran's as a nuclear power. This would be a triumph of Iran's enemies, as "Israelis and a number of Western countries are angry about [the discussions]. They are trying to prevent us from forming cooperation. They want the talks to break down and end in dispute."

So on to the next questions. How do Ahmadinejad's opponents, not just within the reformist movement but within the establishment (Ali Larijani, the ball's in your court) react? Where is Hashemi Rafsanjani? And what does the Supreme Leader say/fail to say in response?

1000 GMT: University Protests. There is now video confirmation of a demonstration at Elm-o-Sanat University (Iran University of Science and Technology) in Tehran. HomyLafayette adds the observation that http://www.iust.ac.ir/ is considered a base of support for President Ahmadinejad and the regime and that the Supreme Leader maintains an office on the campus.

0900 GMT: Catching up on the morning headlines in Iranian state media, it appears they have uncovered a nasty plot to overthrow the Iranian system coming out of the revolutionary hotbed of Cleveland, Ohio. We've got the story.

0745 GMT: A quiet start to the day. There is little political movement from either the Government or the opposition. It appears that President Ahmadinejad's immediate priority is to get Parliamentary approval of his proposals for subsidy reform, with the internal tensions over nuclear talks put aside over the last 48 hours.

Meanwhile, surprisingly little follow-up on the Mousavi message on Monday to Jamaran. I am uncertain as to whether this is because knowledge of it inside Iran has been restricted, because the statement has not sparked as much interest as Mousavi's previous declaration, or for another reason. Mehdi Karroubi has been relatively muted in recent days, and other reformist groups have been curbed in their public positions because of Government pressure.

That leaves, it appears, the simmering protest on university campuses to prop up interest and spirits. And, however quiet it may be for the moment, there is always the beacon of 16 Azar (7 December).