The Latest from Iran (11 September): Prayers and Politics

Iran: The Complete Translation of the Supreme Leader’s Friday Prayer Address
Iran: Josh Shahryar's Snap Analysis of the Supreme Leader's Speech
Iran: Questions on Prayer Day

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2200 GMT: We have received further information on both the Rah-e-Sabz and New York Times stories on the Khamenei order for the arrest of Mehdi Karroubi and on the Rafsanjani "retreat" because of military pressure.

The information indicates that one of Hashemi Rafsanjani's colleagues has confirmed the Karroubi arrest story to one of the best reporters covering Iran. We are therefore taking the story very seriously.

More to come in a special analysis on Saturday.

2120 GMT: An EA correspondent picks up the following from the Rah-e-Sabz story on Rafsanjani's apparent retreat: "He went as far as to say that Karroubi's arrest warrant should not have been issued by Khamenei himself and that the presence of the IRGC [Revolutionary Guard] in the political sphere will make matters 'complicated'. Khamenei apparently reacted with a long silence to this remark."

2100 GMT: Rumour of the Day. Rah-e-Sabz reports that an "informed source" claims that the Supreme Leader has issued an order for the arrest of Mehdi Karroubi. Almost as significant is the claim, from the same report, that Hashemi Rafsanjani has told members of the Center for Strategic Research of the Expediency Council, about a meeting between himself and Ayatollah Khamenei: “I will back away from everything, they are not granting me permission to speak at the Friday prayers anymore.”

The New York Times, which picked up the story, has added from "a person close to Mr. Rafsanjani" that "the order was issued at least two weeks ago".

1945 GMT: Journalist Mohammad Hasan Fallahizadeh, who had been on hunger strike in Evin Prison, was released on Wednesday on medical grounds.

1520 GMT: The Karroubi Response. A "source close to Mehdi Karoubi" has told Rooz Online's English-language website:

Mr. Karoubi was taken back over the closure of the committee because he believed that the two meetings that he had with judiciary officials on the subject were very constructive.If the committee continues its work with Mr. Karoubi, then many issues will come to light. New issues are surfacing with every passing day. They wish to cut Mr. Karoubi from the people.

That is a straightforward reaction, but the emerging question for us is whether Karroubi comes to the forefront to lead the protests on Qods Day next Friday. The source's comments were focused on the narrower question of the abuse investigation: "Mr. Karoubi shall continue his pursue of the cases of the victims of the post election atrocities....The issue is very clear: Crimes have taken place and the Islamic system is responsible to investigate them."

1515 GMT: More of the Hard Line. The Supreme Leader's address was not the only tough talk on Friday. The leader of prayers in Qom has wondered why Mir Hossein Mousavi has not been arrested and called for the "voice" of the Green movement to be "strangled" on Qods Day.

1500 GMT: Back after an afternoon break. Radio Farda has posted a summary of the Karroubi letter to head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani (English text in separate entry), emphasising Karroubi's declaration that the Revolutionary Guard has hidden documentation of rapes of detainees.

1120 GMT: Agence France Presse's take on the speech: Confrontation. They use this extract, "Those who draw swords against the regime will be confronted. Differences of views should not lead to conflicts....The policy of the regime is to work with the majority. But if opposition groups have ideas that are against the nation's security and the principles of the regime, they will be confronted."

1115 GMT: Irony of the Day (so far). I'm just checking in after a trip to Manchester --- thanks to Mike Dunn and Chris Emery for covering the Supreme Leader's speech.

Reading the updates, 0855 GMT stands out: "Supreme Leader recalls the memory of a modern Shia icon: Ayatollah Taleghani, a contemporary of Ayatollah Khomenei who died shortly after the Revolution."

Hmm, would that be the same Ayatollah Taleghani whose memorial service was initially blocked, for the first time in 30 years, by the regime earlier this week?

0935 GMT: And it's over. The Supreme Leader ends a hardline, but to some observers nervous, performance with a final warning against any Quds Day demonstrations. A full analysis will follow once we have collected our thoughts..

0930 GMT: Great Britain singled out for more than 200 years of experience of evil in Iran.

0925 GMT: Khamenei recalls another momentous in Iran's modern history. He is now recalling Iran's victory over the US in the 1998 soccer World Cup!  "Iran's goal is a goal for us"!

0920 GMT: State TV showing crowds outside Friday Prayers singing 'Death to England'.

0910 GMT: VIPs present - Larijani Ali and Sadegh Larijani, Rahim Safavi, Hassan Rowhani, Int. Minister Heydar Moslehi. President Ahmadinejad seated next to Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, former judiciary chief.

0906 GMT: Khamenei justifies the crack down..."All States, even European ones, react with force to violent threats. We accept criticism, but not threats."

0900 GMT: A nod to tolerance clearly setting up an attack on dissent. "Differences in opinion are valid and accepted within the framework of the system. The system will not react against anyone in this case; people who do not want to wreck the peace of the regime, and of society will not be dealt with."

0857 GMT: "There have been divisions throughout the revolution", some costly,. others not for the revolution, Khomeini dealt with them at all levels, people who were revolutionaries but that we could no longer work with." The Supreme Leader appears to be trying to reassert his leadership of the Revolution's legacy and the current political system.

0855 GMT: Supreme Leader starts the second sermon by recalling the memory of a modern Shia icon: Ayatollah Taleghani, a contemporary of Ayatollah Khomenei who died shortly after the Revolution.

0850 GMT: Khamenei has the whole crowd weeping:  Suspicions that Ali Larijani's tears are less than convincing. Crowd is big, although they are yet to show the sorrounding streets.

0845 GMT: The SL is winding up the first sermon, the Quranic one, but building up to a possibly confronational second sermon: "Imam Ali said "after tollerance, Ali drew the sword"

0840 GMT: 'What would the Imam Ali do?' The Supreme Leader is drawing heavily on themese of 'spirituality' with particular emphasis on Imam's Ali's example.

0830 GMT: The Speech begins and the Supreme Leader warns of the "dangers" of the seperation of religion from politics. Politics becomes "immoral" in that case, just like in the "secular western".

0430 GMT: We've prepared for today's big events, the Supreme Leader's address at Friday prayers in Tehran, with a quick preview of the issues at play both for the opposition and for the regime. And no doubt we'll be occupied today with covering and then deciphering the speech.

This should not, however, ignore another development. The Green movement has not folded in the face of the toughest strikes on its leadership since the days after the 12 June election. Mir Hossein Mousavi has responded, with his criticism of the Government and his upholding of the "Green Path of Hopse"; the impact of this, given the restrictions on Mousavi's communications, remains to be seen.

Perhaps even more important, however, the Mehdi Karroubi network has bounced back. The Etemade Melli party website (including Saham News) has revived, against the expectations of many. Today Karroubi publishes his letter to the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, on the investigation of the abuse of detainees. Karroubi's line is clear: the Ahmadinejad Government's raids and arrests this week were meant to stop this process, but this must not happen.

Which, of course, raises a vital question: after his recent reference to those "outside the law", does Larijani agree?

The Latest from Iran (10 September): Who Fits Where?

NEW Iran Analysis: Retrenching Before Friday’s Prayers
EA Exclusive: Iran and Venezuela are Going to Kill Us All
The Latest from Iran (9 September): The Stakes Are Raised


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1955 GMT: The Youth and Student Section of Mehdi Karroubi's reformist Etemade Melli party have condemned the acts of the judiciary and security forces with the arrest of Mousavi’s and Karoubi’s advisors. The section declared that these actions in the run-up to Qods Day (18 Sept.) not only will fail to cause fear in people but will encourage them to attend the epic demonstration on that day.

1815 GMT: There is a bit of a buzz about a letter from the noted political philosopher Abdolkarim Soroush to the Supreme Leader, proclaiming that Iranians will celebrate the "decline of religious despotism".

1740 GMT: The reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front has expressed support for Mir Hossein Mousavi’s “Green Path of Hope” as a manifesto for the liberation of Iranians from the "defective cycle of tyranny".

1735 GMT: Still don't believe there is a foreign-directed effort at "velvet revolution" in Iran? Well here, courtesy of Raja News, is the super-duper, multi-colour chart (with arrows) to prove it.

1730 GMT: Norooz, which was down earlier today because of an "Internal Server Error", is back online.

1440 GMT: An EA correspondent clarifies our 1415 GMT entry on newssites linked to Mehdi Karroubi: "Saham News is back to posting new items, while tagheer.ir is a site that was set up some 7-8 months ago during Khatami's President candidacy."

1425 GMT: Mohammad Reza Bahonar, the Deputy Speaker of Parliament, has said that if Mehdi Karroubi cannot establish his claims of detainee abuse, he should be tried on criminal charges. The source is significant because Bahonar had been a vocal foe of the President during the debate over the Cabinet.

1415 GMT: There are reports that staff of Mehdi Karroubi have set up an alternative website to replace the suspended Saham News/Etemade Melli party site. The alternative, tagheer.ir, has similar content and approach to that of Saham News.

At the same time, it appears that the Norooz site, a key source for recent news is down because of "Internal Server Error". Before it went down, the site was disputing the Government's denial of its list of 72 people killed in post-election conflict and reporting that the memorial for the late Ayatollah Taleghani, which the Government had tried to block, had been held at the family home.

1345 GMT: Amnesty International says it has reports that Caspian Makan, the fiancé of Neda Agha Soltan, who was shot and killed by Basiji militia on 20 June, has been released from detention.

1330 GMT: Report that Zohreh Ashtiani, a reporter with Saham News, the Etemade Melli party's website, was arrested and her house searched. A later report says she was released after 12 hours of questioning.

0940 GMT: Just back from an interview with BBC World Service Radio on President Obama's speech on health care (the audio is now up for the next 24 hours). Not much breaking in Iran.

And, confirming our  0800 GMT post, it appears that Iran, apart from The Bomb, will stay off the agenda for most international media. A CNN anchor has just posted their editorial call: "Iraq blast/Afghanistan/India stampede/Mex hijacking/Turkey flood/Taiwan Cabinet/world cup". Yep, the US match with Trinidad & Tobago beats out any consideration of the Government crackdown. (No, the CNN website never did mention the arrest of key Mousavi and Karroubi advisors like Alireza Beheshti.)

0815 GMT: Josh Shahryar has posted "The Green Brief" for Wednesday, including the essential correction that he gave us (0655 GMT) on yesterday's statement about those breaking the law by the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani.

0800 GMT: The New York Times, which had been doing quite well of late with Iran coverage, decides to indulge in peripheral hysteria this morning. Michael Slackman, Nazila Fathi, and Robert Worth, each of whom has some knowledge of Iran as something more than Islam and bombs, give way for David Sanger, who knows what was told to him by the most recent "Western diplomat" or Administration official. So today, it's another recycling of the superficial and misleading claim, "U.S. Says Iran Has Ability to Expedite a Nuclear Bomb".

(Superficial because "ability to expedite a nuclear bomb" is vaguery bordering on linguistic nonsense. Misleading even in the caveats in the article: "a rapid, if risky, sprint for a nuclear weapon" is shorthand for Iran either does not yet have or has not pursued the capability to convert low-yield uranium into highly-enriched uranium in practice, rather than theory. Thus, "the new intelligence information collected by the Obama administration finds no convincing evidence that design work has resumed."

All swept away because someone told Sanger something on his way to the office to file a story: "In interviews over the past two months, intelligence and military officials, and members of the Obama administration, have said they are convinced that Iran has made significant progress on uranium enrichment, especially over the past year.")

Perhaps Sanger might write, for his next not-exactly-an-exclusive, "Ohmygod, Iran and Venezuela are Going to Kill Us All!"

0655 GMT: With a slow morning for breaking news (which is tempting fate, since we said the same thing yesterday and then faced a torrent of afternoon development), we have posted an analysis, "Retrenching before Friday Prayers". And we've taken time to give a breaking story, featured in The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post, the respect it deserves: "EA Exclusive: Iran and Venezuela are Going to Kill Us All".

There is, however, one significant development or, rather, a  correction of a development. We updated yesterday on the interview of the head of Iran's judiciary, "Has Larijani Jumped Behind Ahmadinejad?", because we read his condemnation of those "outside the law" as  a reference to the opposition. Indeed we posted in our last update, The New York Times, drawing from Fars News Agency, was highlighting Larijani's phrase “great costs to the Islamic system”.

Josh Shahryar has had a close look, however, at the interview as it appeared on Radio Zamaneh. Read on its own, it is unclear who is being targeted by this passage:

Some had tried to call the elections fraudulent and attempted to stray outside "the circle of legality". [Larijani] said that law-breaking had become rampant and it had been observed in the aftermath of the elections how such actions had inflicted a great cost on the Islamic regime. He said that these violators shouldn't think that they're not being watched and the Judiciary should pursue the perpetrators of any such law-breaking legally.

However, the ambiguity evaporates when the previous paragraph is added: "Judiciary Chief Sadegh Larijani today said that what had happened in the detention centers had inflicted a huge blow on the standing of the regime. He said that the Judiciary would pursue these violations carefully and vigorously."

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The Latest from Iran (7 September): Countdown to 18 September Begins

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2020 GMT: One to Watch. The last posting on the Etemade Melli (Saham News) website, a full report on Mehdi Karroubi's Eftar dinner party for the employees of the Etemade Melli newspaper), went up at 1:10 p.m. Tehran time (0840 GMT).

2015 GMT: In the midst of developments, this from Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani's address to members of a reformist faction earlier today (1510 GMT): "Power is not the foundation of legitimacy; rather legitimacy is the foundation of power. Some think that by playing with words they can change this."

1945 GMT: I don't think we realised this morning, when we chose the title for the updates, how appropriate the question would be.

Cross-posted from our emergency analysis, "Is This A Defining Showdown?": "Just after 1800 GMT, Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor, Alireza Beheshti, was arrested. (We held off posting until this was confirmed in a reliable source.) The only step up from this action is the arrest of leaders such as Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi."

So far no Western media outlet, to our knowledge, has picked up on the story.

1855 GMT: "New" v. Mainstream Media.

Report of raid on Mehdi Karroubi's office on Enduring America: 1340 GMT.

Emergency analysis of raid on Karroubi office on Enduring America: 1415 GMT.

1st report of raid on CNN's website: 1743 GMT.

1845 GMT: Press TV's website has acknowledged the raid on Karroubi's office with an account lifted word-for-word from the report in Parleman News (see 1340 GMT).

1710 GMT: A Revolutionary Guard official has said that the recent comments of IRGC Commander Mohammad Ali Jafari, claiming that former President Khatami and other reformists seek to "unseat" the regime, are "backed by evidence" given to Iran's judiciary which the IRGC is willing to publish.

1700 GMT: Radio Farda reports that Ayatollah Javadi-Amoli has expressed his intention to carry on the work of the Committee for the Tracking of Prisoners, whose offices were raided yesterday.

1555 GMT: The family of the late Ayatollah Taleghani, whose memorial ceremony was blocked by the Government for the first time since his death in 1979, have announced an alternative site for the gathering.

1510 GMT: Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, speaking to reformists, has claimed that the headquarters of the Supreme Leader no longer have any shame before God or people.

1420 GMT: We have posted an emergency analysis, "Is This the Defining Showdown?"

1350 GMT: Reuters has an English-language summary of the raid on the Karroubi offices.

1340 GMT: URGENT Mehdi Karroubi's office has been raided by security forces on the orders of Tehran's chief prosecutor. CDs, documents, videos, and computers have been seized.

The editor-in-chief of Etemade Melli website, Mohammad Davari, has been arrested. Karroubi aide Morteza Alviri was arrested at his home. An Etemade Melli party spokesman said Karroubi had been escorted out of his office by the security forces.

1335 GMT: A source on the National Security Council has told Norooz that President Ahmadinejad ordered yesterday's raid on the offices of the Committee for the Tracking of Prisoners.

1320 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi (pictured) has issued another statement via an interview in Saham News. Following up his weekend comments on the investigation of detainee abuse, he said false accusations, such as the report of an arrest warrant for his son over a financial dispute, are threats to silence him.

Karroubi emphasised that he will not give up defending people’s rights, urging people to join him in the Qods Day demonstration on 18 September.

1235 GMT: Make That a Triple Signal. Farhad Tajari, a member of the Parliamentary committee investigating detentinons, has said, "Members of this committee had some criticisms over the conduct of trials of detainees accused of being linked to the recent unrest. One of the points we stressed during the meeting was to immediately release those detainees who did not have big roles in the unrest."

1205 GMT: A Double Signal? Press TV is featuring two articles on post-election conflict. Neither of the developments are new, so it's their timing of their re-appearance that raises eyebrows.

This morning, Press TV reported, from State television, "Iranian authorities say they have launched an investigation into public complaints regarding the post-election unrest, with a focus on charges of prisoner abuse. The Supreme National Security Council has formed a committee to look into the cases of those who sustained losses of any kind after the June 12 presidential elections."

Since a Parliamentary committee was set up weeks ago to consider the allegations, this is far from an unprecedented development. However, the move from the legislature to the Executive, with the NSC's involvement, is at least a symbolic step up. Add to that the specific focus of Press TV's article, which is line with the Supreme Leader's public statements, "The officials are investigating the charges of mistreatment made by a number of detainees who were held at the Kahrizak detention center." (Pay attention also to the highlighting of the death of Mohsen Ruholamini, which prompted so much conservative and principlist fury with the Government.)

Two hours later, Press TV posted the statement of the Governor-General of Tehran Province, Morteza Tamaddon, from Fars News: "A panel has been formed in Iran's Supreme National Security Council which is closely looking into events that unfolded in a Tehran University dormitory….The investigation will be seriously conducted to reach a final result."

Previously, Tamaddon has been notable for tough talk against protestors. This statement brings him in line with the position taken by Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani within two weeks of the 12 June election.

So are we seeing, 72 hours before the Supreme Leader's Friday Prayers address, a convergence around specific investigations? This would give at least a token acknowledgement of claims brought by the opposition, while at the same time emphasizing the need for "unity" and "observance of the law". It would bring together Ayatollah Khamenei, the Larijanis (Ali and head of judiciary Sadegh), key figures in Parliament and senior clerics, and maybe Hashemi Rafsanjani?

And, if this is the case, has President Ahmadinejad been told?

1105 GMT: Stopping the Gatherings. The Government has withheld permission for the memorial ceremony for the late Ayatollah Taleghani, a key figure in the Revolution who died in 1979. According to Taleghani's daughter, this is the first time in 30 years that a permit has been denied.

The obvious explanation is that the regime, which has cancelled other Ramadan ceremonies including those at Ayatollah Khomeini's shrine, is fearful of any occasion where people can gather and express opposition.

1005 GMT: President Ahmadinejad has withdrawn his "replacement" nominations of Fatemeh Aliya as Minister of Education and Ali Zabihi as Minister of Energy. The original nominees were rejected last Thursday.

0950 GMT: It Just Got Interesting. Fars News reports that the Supreme Leader will lead this Friday's prayers in Tehran.

No further details but look for Ayatollah Khamenei to try and pre-empt the Green movement's plans for Qods Days demonstrations the following Friday, possibly in combination with prayers led by Hashemi Rafsanjani. The Supreme Leader will do that by calling for "unity" and, while acknowledging that the Government needs to serve the people, upholding the system.

Two questions: 1) if this is indeed Khamenei's speech, are he and Rafsanjani finding common ground?; 2) will the Supreme Leader cross the line and issue threats against opposition leaders?.

If the answer to 1) is Yes, then we may be seeing an alignment trying to resolve the crisis. If the answer to 2), then the conflict continues.

Meanwhile, the head of Iran's police, Brigadier General Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, has warned against demonstrations "politicising" Qods Day. (Big thanks to reader Ali for pointing us to both these stories.)

0915 GMT: Larijani's Manoeuvre. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has positioned himself behind yesterday's call by the Supreme Leader for the Government to heed "benevolent criticism": ''In uncertain situations we should take advantage of Supreme Leader's advice and thoughts''. What may be more interesting is the possibility that he is converging with Hashemi Rafsanjani's call for unity, ''All governments and societies have differences in ideology, strategy and tactics. Prejudgment is a trap for pluralism which should be avoided in current situation."

And, if I read this right, Larijani is calling for the opposition to back down from its challenge to the legitimacy of the Government over detentions and trials: "If we want to solve differences we should all follow the Law even if it may have defects."

0840 GMT: Josh Shahryar's "Green Brief" roundup of Monday's developments is now posted.

0715 GMT: The Detentions Issue. One of the important political dances right now is that between the three-member judiciary panel and Mehdi Karroubi, as he sets out the claims of detainee abuse. We didn't give this justice on Saturday, so are picking up now. Karroubi said:
"I offered [the panel] three documents at [Friday's] meeting. The first was a video statement by the individual who has gone missing because of threats issued by the representative of Judge Saeed Mortazavi. My second document was about the [sexual] assault of a woman. The third was a document about one man who was subjected to various calamities after his arrest and I offered a CD and the medical examiner’s report on him as well. In that session I also offered two verbal reports as well."

One of the [verbal] reports was about Taraneh Mousavi….I told them her family [is so scared] after the incident that they refuse to even let the girl who was with their daughter on that day [when she was taken] into their home anymore… [I told them] that you, as the officials of this country, must visit the family yourselves and find out the truth of matter….Go to Karaj city’s Imam Khomeini Hospital and seek the doctor’s opinion about the injuries on this girl’s body.

The case of Mousavi, raped and killed in detention, has raced around the Internet, with rumours as to who might have been responsible and why the incident has been covered up.

On a wider front, however, this is a political showdown. Karroubi had agreed with the panel not to reveal any details of discussions, but one of the members, Deputy Judiciary Head Ebrahim Raeesi, told the press that Karroubi had not presented any evidence for his accusations. It was then that the reformist cleric broke his silence.

We await the next developments.

0650 GMT: We've spent this morning on a special analysis of President Ahmadinejad's latest political strategy, which seems to consist of shoving around his opponents as "dust" and "contaminants", and the tension that it might have caused within the regime.

That tough approach is evident in two other developing stories. We've got new information and analysis on last night's raid on the offices of the Committee for the Tracking of Prisoners, run by Mir Hossein Mousavi's staff. And today the Government is pushing ahead with its public display of strength against the opposition, putting three prominent reformist detainees --- Saeed Hajjarian, Mohammad Atrianfar, and Saeed Shariati --- on television for a "roundtable" confessing the errors of their political activity. The showpiece is part of the campaign to control discussion and activity at Iranian institutions, as the trio discuss the "promotion of pathology at the University of Western humanities, and the social and political consequences that come from following elites and political activists and Western ideas".

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2030 GMT: No Criticism Here. Press TV's website writes out the admonition of the Supreme Leader to President Ahmadinejad and the Cabinet to take heed of "benevolent criticism" (see 1830 GMT). Instead the report emphasizes Ayatollah Khamenei's declaration about the legitimacy established by the election, “The nation and the Islamic Revolution have proven their republican nature. If officials, elites and political experts understand this fact, many of the country's problems will be resolved."

1930 GMT: Is the Regime Targeting Leaders' Children? That's the question asked by one of our readers, who noticed the arrest of Atefeh Emam, the 18-year old daughter of Mir Hossein Mousavi's Chief of Staff, Javad Emam, who is still detained himself. She was reportedly released earlier today, after 24 hours of continuous interrogation, near a Tehran cemetery.

Earlier in the crisis, the regime arrested several members of the family of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, and pressure has been placed this week on the son of Mehdi Karroubi.

1830 GMT: Khamenei Manoeuvres. In a line which is not that far from the "conservative" Society of Militant Clergy criticism of the President, the Supreme Leader has advised Ahmadinejad and his Cabinet: "There is internal criticism backed by foreign media with the aim of sabotage but there is also benevolent criticism which may not come from supporters of the government but they contain good comments."

1710 GMT: Clerics Warn Ahmadinejad. The reformist Association of Teachers and Researchers of Qom have issued a statement warning that the regime cannot be maintained with military force, arrests, and brutality.

More intriguing, however, may be a finger-wagging at the President from the "conservative" Society of Militant Clergy, their first intervention in the post-election crisis:

We ask the president and the government to seriously try to solve people’s problems and the country’s economic and social issues, and avoid talking about unnecessary and provocative issues. The comments made and the disrespect committed in the debates, speeches and rallies before and after the election caused divergence.

The Society criticised the opposition for pursuing demands "outside law", but it also called for "consoling" those harmed in the unrest.

Possibly Relevant Fact: One of the members of the Society is former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.

1645 GMT: A Norooz News article, featured on Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook page, says that:

"Security Forces attacked the Staff office of Mir Hossein Mousavi which was resposible for following the issues of the detainees, without any legal premisson. All documentations were confiscated and taken out to... an unknown destination. As Staff members asked for receipt, security forces answered that no documents will be given back, thus there will be no receipt !!"

(Thanks to Mike Dunn for covering, as I was stuck in traffic when this came through. We have posted as a separate entry, cleaning up some of the text and adding a brief analysis.)

1430 GMT: We've been watching since reports came in yesterday of a meeting in Qom between Grand Ayatollahs Golpaygani and Makarem-Shirazi. Now the website of the Green movement, Mowj-e-Sabz, is reporting that there were several Grand Ayatollahs and senior clerics, including Bayat-Zanjani, Montazeri, and Mousavi-Ardebili, in the discussion of "practical steps against the coup government", after receving letters from political and social activists.

1340 GMT: Fars News reports that Press TV will soon air a "roundtable" of detainees Saeed Hajjarian, Mohammad Atrianfar, and Saeed Shariati on the causes of their "change of attitude and intellectual development".

1130 GMT: We're here but it is a very slow day, with little breaking on the political front.

There is one story that catches the eye. According to Tehran Bureau, via a source, the revelations of the abuses of detainees in Kahrizak Prison cames from a photographer for the Supreme Leader.

The well-known documentary maker and photojournalist, who recorded the eight-year Iraq-Iran war and became a ‘Sacred Defense’ photographer, was arrested during the post-election unrest and taken to Kahrizak where he was abused and tortured. After his release, he informed Ayatollah Khamenei about jail rapes and prisoner abuse. When the Supreme Leader expressed disbelief, the man revealed that he was one of the victims: "What they did was inhumane and in violation of all human rights… When they did those things to me, in my eyes it was you who was doing them."

Soon after this, Khamenei ordered the closure of the notorious detention center.

(The photojournalist was one of the cameramen who made Mir Hossein Mousavi’s campaign films, although it is unclear if they played any part in his arrest. He has also worked on a documentary about Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.)

0850 GMT: If the BBC was paying attention, rather than trotting along with the notion of Iran's Nuclear Programme Above All Else (see 0820 GMT), it might have noticed these comments from President Ahmadinejad in his press conference, directed at the opposition movement:

The election and post-election events was victory of Iranian nation's morality against immoralities. The other victory of Iranian nation was success in removing contamination from Revolution.

0840 GMT: Rafsanjani Speaks. A small amendment to the end of today's analysis, "The large presence of Hashemi Rafsanjani has disappeared." The former President said, at a ceremony to commemorate Ayatollah Ali Qoddousi, Iran's prosecutor general who was killed by Mujahedin-e-Khalq Organization (MKO) in 1981:

It is a vital need of the Islamic Republic and establishment to find a way to strengthen national unity and establish peace in the country. In the recent events, the sides should act in a way which will guarantee national unity.

Small amendment, indeed, as the statement just repeats Rafsanjani's cautious, hold-the-line comments that we evaluated in mid-August.

0820 GMT: MediaWatch. The New York Times does another good job this morning, picking up on the Khatami statement and Mousavi letter (though missing Karroubi's moves) that we've highlighted all weekend and in today's analysis. The Washington Post also mention Khatami and Mousavi but hide the impact by tucking them away under a headline on an older story, "Iran Canceling Major Ramadan Events in Wake of Election Protests".

CNN are nowhere to be found, preferring to go with "Chavez Pledges Closer Ties with Iran". Al Jazeera also gets distracted by the Venezuela dimension. Even worse at the BBC, which falls for the Iranian President's "Look Over There!" trick, "Tehran 'ready for global talks'".

0800 GMT: We heard about this story all day yesterday and are keeping a close eye on it (any information would be welcomed):

A group of Revolutionary Guards have resigned from the force according to Hosein Hashemian, an Iranian lawmaker. Mr. Hashemian told Parleman News Website that the unacceptable interference of the Revolutionary Guards in political matters has caused a rift in the force.

The story of resignations, including those of unit commanders, has been about since the start of the crisis, and more than 30 Islamic Revolution Guard Corps members have been arrested.

However, at this point without further confirmation, I am treating this as a bit of "psychological warfare" from the opposition to unsettle the Government. In particular, it is part of the fightback against the recent statements of the Revolutionary Guard's chief commander, General Mohammad Ali Jafari (see our separate analysis today): Hashemian called for Jafari to be detained for his claim that former President Khatami and other reformists were trying to "unseat" the regime.

0655 GMT: We've spent the morning on two special pieces. First and foremost, Josh Shahryar of Anonymous Iran's "The Green Brief" has spent hours translating into English, from the list provided by the Iranian website Norooz,  the names and descriptions of 72 people killed in post-election violence. Given that regime figures like high-ranking member of Parliament Alaeddin Boroujerdi have been trying to deny there is any evidence for the deaths, we think this is a vital document of record.

The second piece is an analysis, after a weekend of opposition statements, of the current political situation and the question of whether the Green Wave is moving towards a high-profile display of resistance on Qods Day, 18 September.

Iran: Green Wave Resurgent?

Iran’s Victims: The 72 People Killed in Post-Election Conflict
Iran Analysis: How Important is the Mousavi Statement?
Text: Mousavi Statement to “Green Path of Hope” (5 September)
The Latest from Iran (6 September): The Reformists Speak

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And so the next wave? After the recent pre-eminence of President Ahmadinejad's quest for authority, backed by threats to quell the opposition challenge, yesterday brought an intriguing combination of Green statements.

All three of the most prominent figures were in play yesterday. Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement to "The Green Path of Hope" has sparked an excellent debate, including on yesterday's updates and on our special analysis, of the significance for the opposition. Mehdi Karroubi pressed his claims of detainee abuse, manoeuvring with the three-person judiciary panel investigating the cases. And Mohammad Khatami struck back vigorously at the regime's efforts to direct --- through injunctions to administration and faculty, through curriculum revisions, and through threats to instutions like Islamic Azad University --- "proper" studies. There were also fightback statements from reformist MPs and clerics against the Revolutionary Guard's efforts to intimidate the opposition with the claims that the Green movement was pursuing "regime change".

As has been the case throughout this crisis, anyone who ventures to predict the fate of this latest wave is either a fool or a visionary far beyond my capabilities. Some markers can be set down, however.

This time, the opposition activity may be moving toward a defining junction in the challenge to Government legitimacy. Publicity through the Internet, flyers, and word-of-mouth is already pointing towards the last Friday of Ramadan, 18 September, which is also Qods (Jerusalem Day). Under the working slogan of "Silence = Consent", activists are looking to mobilise the biggest march since 18 Tir (9 July) and the biggest event since the 40th Day memorial of 30 July, possibly in conjunction with prayers led by Hashemi Rafsanjani.

With a wave of protest which seeks to build over 11 days, the watching brief should be not to expect a major challenge until the 18th but to look, each day, for some step-by-step statements and actions that indicates, "We are here, and we are gathering strength."

And that effort may be aided by an emerging factor on the other side. While noting all the indications of an Ahmadinejad campaign to establish his leadership, supported by the security forces, the President also now has to govern. Little things like the economy, delivery of services, and re-nominating ministers for the posts of Health, Education, and Energy come into play after three months of near-stalemate.

All those little things take time away from the direct contest with the opposition because --- as we noted a few days ago --- the long-term Achilles' heel for the legitimacy of this Government is Iran's economic and social infrastructure. And this far-from-minor diversion opens up some space for the opposition to gather itself.

But, to put in a third (of many) consideration. In all the paragraphs above, indeed in weeks going back to mid-August, the large presence of Hashemi Rafsanjani has disappeared. While Mousavi calls for the "Green Path of Hope", while other protestors try to build up a momentum that (paradoxically) will not collapse with a single setback, while Ahmadinejad tries to rule....

Where will Rafsanjani be on 18 September?