The Latest from Iran (6 September): The Reformists Speak

Iran Analysis: How Important is the Mousavi Statement?
Text: Mousavi Statement to “Green Path of Hope” (5 September)
Middle East/Iran Inside Line: Israel Presses Ahead with Settlements, Tehran Draws Line on Nuke Talks
The Latest from Iran (5 September): A Quiet Phase

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2000 GMT: Psychological Warfare. Unsurprisingly, the Fars News story that Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali is the subject of an arrest warrant, due to a financial dispute with the mobile phone company Irancell, appears to be a bit of fiction to shake up the reformist movement.

The specific claim is that Ali Karroubi is connected with Persian Telecom, which failed to carry out advertising obligations for Irancell. However, Irancell has told Saham News, connected with Karroubi party's Etemade Melli:

Mr. Ali Karroubi does not hold any shares in Persian Telecom....The two companies have a business association in the form of purchasing Irancell products and selling them and therefore no advertisement is done on behalf of Irancell by Persian Telecom. (Translation from Tehran Bureau)

1925 GMT: The Reformist Fightback. A series of reformist members of Parliament and clerics have been striking back at the comments of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps commander, General Ali Mohammad Jafari (see 1730 GMT), all day. The latest is Hojatoleslam Alikhani, a cleric and MP, who has emphasised that the military should not enter political issues.

1920 GMT: The Battle for the Universities (Cont.). Iranian newspapers and the Islamic Republic News Agency report, “The Institute for Humanities and Cultural Studies [has been] tasked by the Supreme Cultural Revolution Council to revise the human sciences curriculum."

The head of the Institute declared, “In our country a large part of the syllabus… is not in line with our Iranian-Islamic culture. This calls for a revision." The syllabus will be revised
“based on the supreme leader’s recommendations.” (Agence France Press has an English summary.)

1730 GMT: Pursuing the Revolutionary Guard. Following up our last update yesterday, The Assembly of Combatant Clerics had responded to the claims of Revolutionary Guard Commander General Mohammad Ali Jafari, alleging that former President Khatami and other prominent reformists have tried to "unseat" the Supreme Leader and Government, by filing a formal complaint against Jafari and Keyhan newspaper for publishing lies and insulting several members of the Assembly.

1725 GMT: Responding to claims by Deputy Head of Judiciary, Ebrahim Raeesi, that he had not presented any evidence of detainee abuse in his meeting with the three-member panel investigating the claims, Mehdi Karroubi has described three documents that he presented.

1715 GMT: Hey, Look Over There! According to Press TV, the Supreme Leader gave visiting Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez a quick international lesson on Sunday: "The US had far greater failures in the Islamic Republic of Iran than in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon and Palestine. A power has been formed in this region which was once regarded by the US as its courtyard."

Surprisingly, the article offered no reference by Ayatollah Khamenei made to Iran's internal situation.

1440 GMT: Regime Goes After Karroubi. Fars News reports that an arrest warrant has been issued for Mehdi Karroubi's son, Ali. The cause of the action is a financial dispute involving one of Iran's largest mobile phone companies, Irancell, for whom Karroubi's company was supposed to sell phone cards. The amount involved is almost $2.5 million.

Nice touch, by the way, for Fars to use this as the illustration for the story:


1305 GMT: Josh Shahryar's "Green Brief" summarising the events of Saturday is now out.

1255 GMT: As the regime pushes its campaign for a "proper" academic sector (see 0740 GMT), former President Khatami held his own discussion with the Islamic Association of University Teachers. He pointedly challenged both the Supreme Leader's call on academics to be the commanders in a war against "Western" soft power and last Friday's prayer address in Tehran for a "non-Western" approach to humanities. Khatami expressed his opposition to those who in the name of fighting western liberalism, were forcing people to follow their path by employing fascism and totalitarianism ideologie and warned the authorities to start rebuilding public trust before all the opportunities are wasted."

1015 GMT: Business as Usual. Deputy head of judiciary Ebrahim Raeesi, who seems to be the regime's "hold-the-line" guy on detentions and prosecutions, declared Saturday that the replacement of Saeed Mortazavi as Tehran prosecutor by Abbas Jafari Dolatabadi will make no difference to the current approach: “The trials will continue and we will do our best so that the rule of law is upheld and justice prevails."

1010 GMT: Methinks He Doth Protest Too Much. Presidential spokesman Aliakbar Javenfekr is a bit upset at the claim, highlighted by Deputy Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Reza Bohanar (see Friday's updates), that up to six of the Ministerial nominees only got approval after the Supreme Leader's intervention of a letter to Parliament: "This was not an order at all but a consultative and friendly view which compelled the lawmakers to work more tolerantly with the government." Bahonar was "insulting the lawmakers who through their independent, conscious, and intelligent vote helped establish a powerful, efficient government".

0850 GMT: The three-member judiciary panel investigating allegations of detainee abuse has said that Mehdi Karroubi has formally submitted the names of four detainees who will appear before the panel if invited.

0810 GMT: We've split off our opening update on the reformist fightback as a separate entry, "How Important is the Mousavi Statement?"

0800 GMT: No, No, It Ain't So. The head of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, is insisting that the claims of 72 deaths in post-election violence are "questionable, given the fact that no detail on the identity of the victims has been present".

We linked Friday to the Farsi-language site Norooz, which has collected the names and descriptions of the dead, but we're hoping to help Mr Boroujerdi later today with an English translation of the list.

0740 GMT: In recent days, we've been updating on the regime's statements linking academia and the "proper" post-election path in Iran, including the Supreme Leader's address to heads of universities and research centres as "commanders" of the fight against foreign "soft power" and the statement in last Friday's prayers in Tehran warning against "Western-style" instruction in humanities.

Today The New York Times has an excellent article by Robert Worth today, "Iran’s Universities Punish Students Who Disputed Vote". Drawing from Iranian website, it not only notes the arrests and summoning for questioning of politically active students but also writes that "a presidential panel has begun an investigation of the humanities curriculums at universities".

The lengthiest passage, however, summarises the academic and political fight around Islamic Azad University:

Significantly, several clerics and high-ranking officials have taken aim at Islamic Azad University, which is based in Tehran and has branches around the country. The university is largely run by the family of former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a powerful moderate and leading opponent of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

“This university must once again be purified,” Ayatollah Muhammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi, the president’s spiritual adviser, said during a meeting with new cabinet members, the Rouydad Web site reported. “This purification must occur at the management level and other levels. You see just how many who do not believe in religion, Islam and God have attended and graduated from this university.”

Another cleric, Muhammad-Reza Babai, called for the new minister of higher education to review Azad’s management charter, during a Friday Prayer sermon in the central city of Kerman. The new minister, Kamran Daneshjoo, has also accused Azad of failing to meet standards.

The Latest from Iran (5 September): A Quiet Phase

The Latest from Iran (4 September): A Friday Pause?

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2200 GMT: Another Reformist Fightback. Nasrullah Torabi, a reformist member of Parliament, has condemned the "desperate act" of the regime in applying pressure on the family of Imam Khomeini to cancel former President Khatami’s speech on Qadr Night and eventually the entire ceremony in the Imam's shrine (the first cancellation in 20 years), saying that these kinds of behaviour will cause people greater concern and have negative consequences in society.

2010 GMT: Striking Back at the Revolutionary Guard. On Wednesday we noted the declaration of General Johammad Ali Jafari, the commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, that former Khatami and other reformist leaders such as Mousavi Khoeniha, as well as Hashemi Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi, had tried "to pull down the leadership at any cost".

A reader points us to the story's sequel. The Association of Combatant Clerics condemned Jafari’s assertions and asked for a judicial response: “Is it inappropriate to ask the prosecutor general to appropriately respond to this slander and lies, and other similar remarks, which have incited public opinion and are the groundwork for dangerous plans, particularly as the head of the judiciary has stressed that any violator regardless of the office he holds has to be confronted?”

Mohammad Ali Tabesh, the Secretary General of the minority reformist faction in Parliament, went even further, “Those who gave the IRGC permission to intervene in the elections and those who gave the Pasdaran the warrants to arrest and extract forced confessions, must be prosecuted, rather than those who have demonstrated they allegiance to the regime.”

Tabesh added to his warning, "I advise them to let us keep quiet. We have so far refrained from talking about many issues in order to preserve the regime and the revolution, and not allow the enemies to misuse such expressions under these conditions and do not intend to talk about them. So I hope these gentlemen do not do something that will result in posturing when some truths and realities will be made which will damage the regime.”

1950 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib has condemned the post-election repression, asking how those who have been brutally confronting people can call themselves Muslims. He added that these vicious acts and crimes by coup agents have tainted the face of Islam in the world and made youth lose hope in Islam and convert to other religions.

1940 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has said that he will defend the values of the revolution and the nation's interests as long as he lives and will never give up on this effort. He emphasised that the continuation of the Government's post-election approach is dangerous for the fate and future of the country, destroying the “Republic”, and emphasised continuing the resistance.

1600 GMT: Ebrahim Raeesi, the deputy head of Iran's judiciary and one of the three-person panel appointed by Sadegh Larijani to investigate claims of abuse of detainees, has said that Mehdi Karroubi has yet to prove the allegations put forward in his letter of late July.

1545 GMT: Great Blogs Think Alive. The Los Angeles Times has also picked up on Abdollah Ramezanzadeh's revelations (see 1305 GMT) about his 80-day detention in Evin Prison.

1410 GMT: The Los Angeles Times has now offered their own summary of the Mousavi statement (see 1215 GMT), highlighting this extract: "We shouldn't leave any stone unturned and live up to our commitments in our struggle against cheaters and liars. In pursuing our cause we should brave all the accusations, and we shouldn't duck any act of courage or daring."

1400 GMT: An Iranian website is featuring an interview with a staff member of Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery, giving details of the alleged secret burials of 40 protestors killed in post-election conflict.

An Iranian activist has provided an English summary via Twitter.

1305 GMT: Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, the Presidential spokesman in the Khatami Government who was held for almost three months in Evin Prison, has been interviewed by a reporter after his appearance in an Iranian "media court" on other charges:

I was arrested 2 hours after the election on the street by soldiers and was treated very harshly. During the arrest, my young son and I both were beaten. I sustained a cracked skull and broken ribs. Despite the obvious injuries I had, in Evin they only provided me with tissue paper to cover my wounds.

After 80 days in detention I still don't know what I am being charged with. I have been interrogated many times, blind folded, the interrogator stood behind me the entire time. I have been in solitary the entire time and have only had one family visit.

1225 GMT: Parleman News is reporting that, in preparation for a meeting with the special committee of Parliament investigating detentions, a judiciary representative is indicating there should be no more arrests and a release of all those detained on minor charges.

1215 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi has released a statement, which reached us via his wife Zahra Rahnavard's Facebook page, declaring,

Contrary to what the propaganda machine of the coup [Government] is trying to imply, it is we who are demanding the return of trust and peace to society and it is we who are avoiding any radical and violent act.We have very clear and logical demands. We demand strengthening national unity, the recovery of the moral and ethical identity of the establishment, and rebuilding the public trust as the main component of the political power structure of the country, which is not possible except by accepting people’s rights and gaining their consent in the outcomes of governmental matters and transparency in all measures by the continuous flow of information.

A full English translation is promised soon.

1200 GMT: Such a slow day on the domestic front that we will note the nuclear programme story. The Iranian Government is playing a carrot-and-stick game with the "5+1" powers (US, UK, Germany, France, Russia, and China). On the one hand, the secretary of the National Security Council, Saeed Jalili, is saying that Tehran will deliver a proposal next week "for fresh talks". On the other hand, Iranian envoy Ali Asghar Soltanieh has delivered a letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency, saying that the agency has not provided "genuine" documents on allegations of a possible nuclear weapons programme and the matter is "closed."

Iran's position, in contrast to the Agency's claim that it had seen "multiple documents from multiple countries", is that the allegations are based solely on American fabrication of an "Iranian laptop" with the material: "The government of the United States has not handed over original documents to the agency since it does not in fact have any authenticated document and all it has are forged documents."

0655 GMT: As I type, I am watching Press TV's feature "Iran Today". It is covering the current political situation, highlighting the Parliament approval of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. However, it is also striking that it notes the post-election protests and "the opposition has not been appeased".

The conclusion? "The challenges during Ahmadinejad's 2nd term are many", including unemployment, the budget, inflation, poverty, subsidies, and oil experts, "but these could be turned into opportunities by his new Cabinet members".

0630 GMT: The political lull continues this morning, as all sides regroup and reassess after the week's events, dominated by the negotiations over the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. We could re-post both yesterday's introductory update and the analysis "Has Ahmadinejad Won?" (where there has been an outstanding debate amongst readers) with no changes.

State media will make great play today of a visit by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to Tehran and his declaration of support for the Iranian nuclear programme. The Islamic Republic News Agency declares, "A New Club is Born." It's the first appearance by a foreign leader in Iran after the election, apart from brief trips by the King of Oman and Syria's Bashir al-Assad.

Iran: OK, The Cabinet's In, Has Ahmadinejad "Won"?

The Latest from Iran (4 September): A Friday Pause?
The Latest from Iran (3 September): Ahmadinejad Gets His Cabinet

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Today, on Iran's "weekend", should be a political catch-your-breath day after the culmination of Parliament's approval of 18 of 21 proposed Ministers for the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. News slowed to a standstill last night, and there is almost nothing of significance this morning. There are Friday prayers in Tehran, but no sign that they will produce the headline statements of the last three months, from the Supreme Leader's 19 June drawing of the post-election line to Hashemi Rafsanjani's 14 July intervention to President Ahmadinejad's hard-line anti-opposition pitch last week.

The President's immediate victory, with one unexpected minor setback (the loss of his proposed Minister of Energy), does not mean that the battle is over. Far from it. However, to appreciate the tensions, contests, and manoeuvres, you have to read far beyond "mainstream" coverage, especially outside Iran.

Most of the Western press have pretty much lost the plot. That's why, to our obvious frustration, almost all (with the notable exception of The New York Times) offered simple and misleading reviews of the final Parliament act yesterday. For some, the vote was the signal to move the focus to Iran's nuclear programme. For some, it was the quick grab headline of the Islamic Republic's first woman minister or Mr Most Wanted (Ahmad Vahidi, for a 1994 bombing in Argentina) becoming the Minister of Defense. For others, it was a "white flag" moment for the opposition, as Iran's "hardliners" had united behind the President. Game over.

Wrong. To be honest, I found yesterday's discussion by readers on our updates far more fascinating and useful than the press summaries. (Thanks, by the way, to all who have contributed.) Have a look, because it is here that the next steps of Hashemi Rafsanjani --- who dropped out of the non-Iranian narrative of events --- are considered. It is here that the important matter of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, and its relationship with the President and the Supreme Leader, is in play.

And it is here that attention is paid to those conservative and principlist elements who continue to dislike and even move against Ahmadinejad, even if they did not make their stand yesterday. What now for the Larijanis --- Ali still as Speaker of the Parliament, Sadegh as head of judiciary --- and their allies? What now for high-profile MPs like Ali Motahari and Ahmad Tavakoli, who have bitterly challenged the President and his inner circle since mid-July? What now for those who saw the in-fighting at Ministries like Intelligence as an attempt by Ahmadinejad (and the IRGC) to expand their control and who didn't take too kindly to it?

(And, lest we forget, our question from last week is not resolved, despite Ayatollah Khamenei's open intervention to assist with confirmation of the Cabinet, "What now for the Supreme Leader?")

For us, the post-election crisis has never been a matter of a single, dramatic showdown between the regime and its opponents but a series of waves, inside and outside the Government. There was the immediate wave of mass demonstrations (which were renewed at points throughout July), the wave of resistance to Ahmadinejad's inauguration, the wave of response to the detentions and trials, fed both by Mehdi Karroubi's initiatives and by conservative/principlist disquiet, and the wave that led up to yesterday's vote.

Clearly, the wave of resistance to an Ahmadinejad Cabinet is now dissipated. Indeed, I think it is now fair to drop the label "post-election crisis". Despite all those who will never believe that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won the 12 June vote, he has now gone through all the bureaucratic motions of re-assuming office. However, there is still a "legitimacy crisis". Just because you're President doesn't mean that folks accept your authority.

In part, that "legitimacy crisis" may not be as prominent because the Green wave is in a bit of a lull. Ramadan plays its part here, as well as battle fatigue and the disruption of the opposition's organisation. The leadership of Mir Hossein Mousavi in particular is now primarily on Facebook pages, given the shutdown of his websites, the detentions of some of his top advisors, and restrictions on his movements.

But, whether as an outcome of these difficulties or as a measured strategy, the Green movement has now set out its next resurgence. On 18 September, Qods (Jerusalem) Day, the plan is to assemble as Hashemi Rafsanjani speaks at Friday prayers in Tehran.

OK, but that's two weeks away, and there's no guarantee that the movement will produce a mass show of resistance (or even that Rafsanjani, given his withdrawal from prayers in mid-August, will appear), right? Of course, but that scepticism in turn discounts that tensions continue within the regime.

At the risk of repeating our "Iranians love chess" cliche too often, one strong move does not mean checkmate. And the President and his allies still have a glaring weakness in their defences. Look at the list of waves above. The one that has always been crashing ashore since mid-July has been the criticism of the post-election crackdown through detentions, beatings and abuses, confessions, and trials. And that wave was not put out to sea with the Parliament vote.

It is possible that Ahmadinejad has come through the worst of this. There was a signal this week that the post-election criticism of Mohsen Rezaei, despite the death of his campaign advisor's son in detention, may be muted by putting Rezaei at the head of State broadcasting. The Supreme Leader may be satisfied that he made his point when he "closed" Kahrizak prison. Sadegh Larijani may be content to take his place at judiciary and not challenge the continuing trials; alternatively, Ahmadinejad and the IRGC may accept that they should now curb the crackdown and let proceedings take a lower profile, with releases of some prisoners and "moderate" sentences for others. Ayatollah Khamenei may even announce an end-of-Ramadan "amnesty" for iconic detainees such as Saeed Hajjarian and Mohammad Ali Abtahi.

But, as of now, we don't know. And there's a twist in the tale.

Actually, it's not a twist. It's a storyline that has been here all the time. As EA's Chris Emery and our sharp-eyed/sharp-minded readers have noted, post-election events have added to the strains on the Iranian economy. The post-election crisis brought Government to a standstill and exposed problems in Iran's infrastructure. Of course, Ahmadinejad and his new Cabinet may try to stabilise or even jump-start the economy, but the President's record in this area hasn't been too good.

And that is where "post-election crisis" turns into "legitimacy crisis". It's one thing for an activist to get angry over a stolen vote; another for a "non-activist" to get angry because transport doesn't work, food is more expensive, housing isn't assured, and the lights go out.

If that is the case, if there is a wave of resentment over the economy that happens to arise at the same time as the ongoing waves over the political authority of the President and his allies (and I write that in full cognizance of the opinion of EA colleagues and some of our readers that the Revolutionary Guard has shown its muscle in recent weeks).....

Welcome back to the storm.

The Latest from Iran (3 September): Ahmadinejad Gets His Cabinet

Latest Iran Parliament Video: "Rig the Vote and You Go to Kahrizak" (3 September)
NEW MediaFail: How (Not) to Approach Iran's Nuclear Programme
The Latest from Iran (2 September): The Votes on the Cabinet

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1835 GMT: A reader writes to clarify the "first woman" Minister reference in the Reuters report (1645 GMT), and just now repeated by a CNN reporter: "Iran's first female minister, Mrs. F. Parsa, was appointed by the Shah to serve the Ministry of Education." Parsa was arrested by the new Islamic Republic in February 1980 and executed three months later.

1645 GMT: A bit of a lull as most of the Western media condense today's events to fit their agenda: 1) the approval of Cabinet should be linked to "an international dispute over Tehran's nuclear program"; 2) the Minister of Oil is a "relative novice"; 3) Iran has its first female Minister; 4) the Minister of Defense is wanted by Interpol for a 1994 attack in Argentina. (Reuters wins the prize for getting all of this into two paragraphs.)

But here's a wacky flashback from the morning (0808 GMT): remember the moment when an MP joked, ""If you say the confidence vote was rigged, we'll take you to Kahrizak [Prison, where presumably you will be abused like other detainees]!" Well, the video is now posted in a separate entry.

1240 GMT: A top reformist in the Mousavi presidential campaign, Abbas Mirza Aboutalebi, has been released from Evin Prison, almost two months after he was detained. Aboutalebi, a former MP, is the Deputy Secretary General of the Hambastegi Party..

1220 GMT: US MediaWatch on the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. The New York Times leads US media in the summary of today's developments in Parliament, "Ahmadinejad Wins Approval of Key Cabinet Slots". Michael Slackman, based in Cairo, has raised his reporting game recently, relying on the best US-based analysts, and today he picks up not only on "a victory to the beleaguered president who now has close allies overseeing key ministries of oil, interior and intelligence" but also an outcome which "appeared to serve the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameini, who has struggled recently to try to restore credibility to his tarnished leadership and government while also trying to put the brakes on Mr. Ahmadinejad’s desire to sideline conservative rivals and monopolize power".

The quick reaction of The Los Angeles Times is surprisingly weak and even misleading. The lead sentence of "Iran's hardliners united behind Mahmoud Ahmadinejad today" sweeps away tensions and nuances in the struggle for power, not only with the unhelpful "hardliner" tag and the implications that all divisions are now resolved. (Compare that with our analysis, "Those conservative and principlist MPs who have problems with the President were not prepared, in the end, to make their stand over the Cabinet....The fights, if they are to take place, will now return to the system of detentions and trials, rather than a direct clash over the Ministers overseeing them." --- see 0845 GMT.)

The Associated Press really doesn't care about the internal situation, preferring, "President Mahmoud Ahamedinejad vowed Thursday that Iran would not bend to Western deadlines for nuclear talks after his new government won broad backing from parliament."

And CNN's website? Still nothing (see 1030 GMT).

1045 GMT: Rooz Online claims, from an "informed source", that the Ministry of Intelligence has established a team "to identify the leaks and whistle blowers that led to the revelations that some of the people who had been killed in the aftermath of the June 12 disputed presidential elections were secretly buried".

1030 GMT: We've posted a separate story on how Al Jazeera English let down its usually-high standard of coverage with an example of how not to discuss the Iranian nuclear programme.

However, this slip-up is nothing compared with CNN International's continuing (non-)coverage. One of its top on-air personalties has just tweeted, "Will have more on #Iran lawmakers approving all but 3 of Ahmad's 21 cabinet nominees."

More? I could cut off nine fingers and still be ahead of the total number of words on CNN's website about the Cabinet discussions since Sunday.

1010 GMT: An EA correspondent adds information and analysis to the demand by Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a key ally of President Ahmadinejad, that Islamic Azad University be "cleaned up" so it can be "Islamic" (0520 GMT).

The Islamic Azad University was the first private university established after the Revolution and its establishment was promoted by Hashemi Rafsanjani and executed by [his brother-in-law Abdullah Jafar Ali] Jasebi, the current head of the university. The limited capacity of state-run universities caused the IAU to become an extremely lucrative cash cow, bringing Rafsajani a lot of money and influence. Nowadays almost any town with a population of more than 150,000 people has an IAU branch.

Needless to say, Ahmadinejad and company want to appropriate the revenue and influence of the IAU, and I am convinced that all the issues of "bringing the IAU back to the main path, etc." is really just a money grab. Mohammad Hashemi-Rafsanjani [brother of Hashemi Rafsanjani] and Jasebi have tried to prevent this power grab in their recent attempt to re-define the IAU as an endowment associated with a religious beneficiary, provoking the ire of Fars News and other Ahmadinejad supporters.

0930 GMT: Media Alert. Is this the beta version of Mehdi Karroubi's proposed new television station?

0925 GMT: Journalist Isa Saharkhiz, in a two-minute phone call to his family, has advised them that his detention has been extended another two months.

0915 GMT: Some Post-Vote Confusion. There were conflicting reports over whether Mohammad Aliabadi was confirmed or rejected as Minister of Energy (see 0840 GMT), but situation has now been clarified. Although the vote was in his favour 137-117, the number of Yes ballots was less than 1/2 of the total of 286 MPs. So he's out, and it's 18 of 21 Ministers confirmed.

The wider story, which we'll track down, is why Aliabadi was the only male nominee to take a fall.

0910 GMT: On Another Front. The Assembly of Combatant Clergy, have strongly condemned the recent accusations by Revolutionary Guard commander General Mohammad Ali Jafari (see yesterday's updates) that former President Khatami and other prominent reformists sought the overthrow of the Supreme Leader and the Government. The clerics said they expect the new Prosecutor General to show the "proper reaction" to these lies.

0900 GMT: Tabnak has posted a summary of the vote totals (use Google Translate for the English version).

0845 GMT: The Verdict? There will be a big smile on President Ahmadinejad's face, with 19 of 21 nominees receiving votes of confidence. The only two rejections were of women: Sussan Keshavarz (education) and Fatemeh Ajorloo (welfare). The 3rd woman, Marzieh Vahid Dastjerdi (health), was confirmed.

Interpretation? Those conservative and principlist MPs who have problems with the President were not prepared, in the end, to make their stand over the Cabinet. The two rejections are politically "safe" --- to be blunt, it will be easy to frame that as a discrimination against women, rather than a smack at Ahmadinejad, and even then, Dastjerdi (to the surprise of many, I suspect) came through. Other opportunities for rejection were by-passed, even when these could have been portrayed as doubts about individiuals, rather than a fight with the President. Mirkazemi and Aliabadi survived uncertainties over the Government's approach on energy, Mehrabian was not punished for his court scandal, and Daneshjoo's recent stumble over a suspect Ph.D. was not relevant.

Whether that was because they did not want to be seen as allied with "reformists" in blocking Ministerial choices, because of the Supreme Leader's intervention, or because tensions over Ahmadinejad's post-election actions have eased remains to be seen.

Too early, for me, to declare a reconciliation within the Establishment. My preferred interpretation is that the fights, if they are to take place, will now return to the system of detentions and trials, rather than a direct clash over the Ministers overseeing them.

0840 GMT: Nominees for Ministries of Housing, Interior, and Labour have been confirmed. The nominee for Minister of Oil, Masoud Mirkazemi, scraped through 147-117, and a similar result for Minister of Energy Mohammad Aliabadi (137-117).

0835 GMT: The nominee for Minister of Welfare, Fatemeh Ajorloo, has been rejected 181-76.

Ali Akbar Mehrabian, who has provoked some controversy after being found guilty of patent fraud in a recent court case, won approval as Minister of Mines and Industry 153-103. Similarly "Dr" Kamran Daneshjoo, despite the changing, dubious status of his Ph.D. from some British university (see separate entry), has become Minister of Science after a 186-75 vote.

0830 GMT: The nominee for Minister of Education, Sussan Keshavarz, has been rejected 209-49. Keshavarz was one of three women nominated.

Reza Taqipour has been confirmed as Minister of Communications 197-62. Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi was approved 194-67, and Minister of Economy Shamsodin Hosseini was confirmed 224-41. The current Foreign Minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, has also received a vote of confidence, as has the new Minister of Justice, Morteza Bakhtiari.

0829 GMT: The Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, began the announcement of results by thanking the Supreme Leader, whose remarks had "helped" the voting process.

0825 GMT: Parliament has voted confidence in the proposed Minister of Defence, Ahmad Vahidi.

0820 GMT: Yes, Mahmoud Did Say That. Interpret this as you will, from Iranian Labor News Agency. Ahmadinejad told the Majlis, as they prepared to vote on his Cabinet: "Parliament and government are responsible for the country and should not put this responsibility on Supreme Leader and other clerics."

Oh, yes, and "I think the members of parliament should give [foreign powers] a decisive response. A United vote to propose Cabinet is a strong punch in enemy's mouth.''

0808 GMT: Bad-Taste Parliamentary Comment of Day. One member of Parliament "joked" to a colleague, "If you say the confidence vote was rigged, we'll take you to Kahrizak [Prison, where a number of detainees have died]!" State television quickly cut the nearby microphone off.

0805 GMT: Ayande News has published more details of the purported letter from the Supreme Leader calling on members of Parliament to give a full vote of confidence in the Ahmadinejad Cabinet: Khamenei declared his desire for a Yes vote to all of the President's selections, but this was not an obligation for MPs.

0800 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi has called for investigations of alleged crimes in Kahrizak Prison and in raids against University dormitories, with punishment of those found responsible.

0745 GMT: Did The President Really Say That?: According to an activist monitoring the Parliamentary discussions, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has promised that his Cabinet will meet with MPs every two to four weeks.

Here, however, is the statement that raises eyebrows: "We should take responsibility for running country off the shoulders of Supreme Leader." Perhaps it's a change of meaning in translation --- would the President really want to push Ayatollah Khamenei to the sidelines?

0625 GMT: Another Event to Note. The "40th Day" memorial for Mohsen Ruholamini, who died in detention in Evin Prison, will be from 2-3:30 p.m. local time (1030-1200 GMT) at Vali-e Asr Mosque in Tehran.

0615 GMT: Thanks to the Internet, you can watch the live, televised coverage of state-run IRIB 1  of today's Parliamentary discussions of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet.

0520 GMT: The Parliamentary votes of confidence in President Ahmadinejad's Cabinet should finally take place today. The last two nominees to speak, Masoud Mirkazemi (oil) and Mohammad Aliabadi (energy), have presented their cases to the Majlis.

Despite the delays and dramatic stories such as the Supreme Leader's alleged letter asking for full support for Ministers, the general situation appears to be the same as on Sunday. Up to seven Ministers, and in particular the three female nominees, may not be confirmed.

Even this story, however, will be a distant second today if a rumour spread by Javan newspaper, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard, proves to have substance. The report claims that there will be an end of Ramadan "present", with leading reformists Saeed Hajjarian, Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, Mohammad Ali Abtahi,  and Mohammad Ghoochani to be released from detentions, although others such as Behzad Nabavi, Mostafa Tajzadeh, and Mohsen Aminzadeh will remain in jail. The article adds that the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, is unhappy with televised confessions and the "current trend" will be suspended.

President Ahmadinejad's religious advisor, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, is not thinking of any concessions. Instead, he has said that the private Islamic Azad University, has lost its “true way” and should be brought back to the “main path”, "clean[ing it] up" so it becomes “Islamic". (It is probably far from coincidental that Mehdi Hashemi, the son of Hashemi Rafsanjani, is one of the leading officials of the university.)

Iran Special: Taking Apart the Regime's Defenses (Shahryar v. Afrasiabi)

The Latest from Iran (1 September): The Ripples of Debate Continue

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Earlier this month, The Huffington Post featured a lengthy opinion piece from Professor Kaveh Afrasiabi, insisting on the legitimacy of the Presidential election and, beyond that, of the Ahmadinejad Government. While The Huffington Post is a high-profile outlet, I declined to reply to Afrasiabi. I had seen his polemical attack on Professor Ali Ansari in a Press TV discussion just after the election, and his arguments on the election had been put forth two months earlier by Flynt and Hillary Leverett and Seyed Mohammad Marandi.

Josh Shahryar (the creator of The Green Brief, one of the outstanding sources in this crisis) did respond, however, with a through dissection of Afrasiabi's assertions. We recommend this not to take sides in a fight but to illustrate how it is possible to marshal information, carefully and thoughtfully, for an analysis and an opinion with political impact. And, even as we are engaged in debate with "mainstream" journalists over the value of new media and Internet sources, we note that Shahryar's reading of events --- based on a network of contacts developed via the Web and Twitter as well as his thorough consideration of emerging news --- is far beyond that of much of the "established" broadcast and print media:

As a journalist who has been covering the Iranian Election, almost every day for the past two months from my puny little computer, I was shocked and dismayed when I read Kaveh L. Afrasiabi’s article on the Iranian Election Crisis. Published in The Huffington Post on August 20, 2009 and titled “Obama Should Congratulate Ahmadinejad,” the article urges President Obama to accept the outcome of the election and congratulate Ahmadinejad on his victory.

It must be pointed out, that throughout his article, Mr. Afrasiabi misrepresents the truth, omits key details, and at times simply presents inaccurate or false information to support his point of view. Fortunately, we live in a time of ‘information overload’ where the truth is easy to find, and we all know that there are always two sides to any given story.

Unlike Mr. Afrasiabi - who fails to mention on his Huffington Post profile that he has been a staunch supporter of Ahmadinejad for years - I concede that I have been drawn to the plight of millions of Iranians. I am an insignificant ‘International Green’ who supports Iranians in their struggle to obtain their rights. After reading Mr. Afrasiabi’s article, I had no other choice than to write a response – and I do so as an admirer and supporter of the Sea of Green – not as a representative.

Extracts of Mr. Afrasiabi’s article are included - without any touch-ups or rephrasing below in italics. My comments, rebuttals, and what I believe to be the “whole story” follow the extracts.

AFRASIABI: There are several good reasons why president Barack Obama should join his White House guest this week, Egypt's president Hosni Mubarak, as well as the UN's Secretary General, Ban Ki-Moon, and dozens of other world leaders who have extended congratulations to Iran's duly re-elected president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Not to do so reflects a poor judgment on the White House's part, particularly since Obama has yet to fulfill his own post-election promise of responding to Ahmadinejad's letter that congratulated him for his victory.

Contrary to what was stated, neither UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, nor President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt has congratulated Ahmadinejad. Mr. Ban Ki-Moon did send a letter to Ahmadinejad after the elections. His spokesperson, Marie Okabe, later clarified that the letter should not be construed, in any way, as congratulating Ahmadinejad. According to Ms. Okabe, “The letter takes advantage of the occasion of the inauguration to express the hope that Iran and the United Nations will continue to cooperate closely in addressing regional and global issues." She went on to add, "It is not accurate to refer to this as a congratulatory letter."

In regards to Mr. Mubarak, the Presidency of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s website did report, three weeks ago, that Mr. Mubarak had sent a note to Ahmadinejad congratulating him on his re-election. However, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry has since denied the report. Egyptian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Hossam Zaki’s response to the media about the story was, “I cannot confirm the authenticity of the report.” Furthermore, Arab League Secretary General, Amr Moussa’s act of congratulating Ahmadinejad cannot, in all honesty, be considered as an endorsement by Arab League Members – including Egypt.

Iranian media and government-run websites have claimed that the Japanese Premier, Taro Aso, has also congratulated Ahmadinejad. However, it comes as no surprise, that this report cannot be confirmed either.

Notwithstanding the above, there indeed have been some world leaders who have congratulated Ahmadinejad. A closer examination, however, reveals that out of the two dozen or so congratulatory notes, the majority were sent either by countries without a democracy or by heads of countries that do not wish to upset Iran’s Supreme Leader – given their geographic proximity and strong regional interests.

It is ludicrous to think that the leaders of China, North Korea, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, UAE, Syria, Qatar and Tajikistan would be, in any way, concerned about the fairness of an election. Let us not forget that the above-mentioned countries are dictatorships, strong-arm monarchies or have national leaders whose own elections were considered controversial.

The countries of Turkey, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Lebanon, Armenia and Iraq fall into the second category of “not wanting to upset Iran’s Supreme Leader.” Turkey - because of the Kurdish issue; Lebanon - to appease Hezbollah; Armenia - because Iran is one of the few neighbors with which it has friendly relations - and Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq - because their interests strongly demand good relations with Iran, regardless of the leadership.

This leaves out Brazil, India, Russia, Venezuela, Indonesia, Yemen and Hamas-held Gaza. As for countries such as Japan, Nations in the EU bloc, Australia, New Zealand and Canada – all countries that rank at the top when it comes to democracy – none have congratulated Ahmadinejad. Thus, Obama’s refusal to send a congratulatory note actually shows sound judgment on his part, as he heads a Nation that is a world-leader in democracy.

AFRASIABI: First, with the dust of the post-election turmoil settling and the absence of any hard evidence of "rigged elections" becoming more and more transparent, time is actually on the side of Ahmadinejad, who has been much vilified in the western press, and maligned at home by his reformist challengers, as the grinch who "stole" the election.

Unfortunately, the sum of evidence presented by Mr. Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi to corroborate their allegations of widespread fraud in the June 12th elections simply doesn't add up. This author has examined in depth both the official complaints of losing candidates, as well as the various reports issued by their "truth committee", and has found them to be dreadfully lacking in substance, contradictory, and thick on irrelevant innuendo, such as passing off such pre-election "irregularities" seen in television debates as evidence of election fraud.

The description of, “‘the dust of post-election turmoil settling” baffles the mind. The Iranian people have been protesting at every opportunity - in spite of an extremely high security presence. They have been shot at, beaten, tear gassed, imprisoned, tortured, and in many cases brutally killed. How has the dust settled?

In late June, thousands gathered at Ghoba Mosque and around Tehran. Thousands more turned out, facing the brutality of the security forces on July 30th. Hundreds were chanting in support of Karroubi, in front of Etemaade Melli’s office less than two weeks ago, although he explicitly asked them not to. Nightly, people chant “Alloha Akbar” from their rooftops, despite the threat of being shot at, fined, arrested or imprisoned. When the opposition calls for a protest, the people of Iran protest, not only in Tehran. We must keep in mind the thousands that gathered around the country, whose voices cannot be heard because of the government’s media blackout. The claim that, “The protests are over,” can only be made, IF and WHEN:

* Protests are no longer illegal; meaning that people can protest without the fear of reprisal
* Opposition Leaders call for a protest
* No one shows up

The truth of the matter is, if there are no “grand protests,” it is not because people don’t want to protest, but because the opposition has not called for one.

Regarding the claim, “The elections were not rigged,” the mere fact that "defeated" candidates and reformist politicians – and their followers - were not the only ones to have cast doubt on the results should merit speculation. Many others have challenged the validity of the results, including former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, who expressed his doubt during his sermon at Friday Prayer’s, as well as Khatami, who released a statement calling for a “referendum” over the issue.

For the sake of argument, let us set aside for a moment, that the previous Supreme Leader Rohullah Khomeini and the current Supreme Leader Seyed Ali Khamanei are dictators in the guise of religious sanctity. Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami and Hashemi Rafsanjani are all two-term heads of the Iranian Government. Even if we discount Mousavi as a stakeholder in the election, dismiss Khatami as a reformist, what about arch-conservative Rafsanjani? Then again, these people are politicians and you never know what Rafsanjani might be hoping to gain from this.

Then what about a class of Iranian leaders who have little to nothing to gain by questioning the legitimacy of the government? Where do the clerics stand? In case anyone missed their comments here is what they have to say:

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