The Latest from Iran (16 September): Smoke Before Battle

NEW Iran’s Chess Match: Setting Up the Pieces for Friday
Iran: Montazeri Letter to Islamic Clerics (14 September)
The Latest from Iran (15 September): Momentum Builds

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2030 GMT: An Artistic Clash for the Supreme Leader? A colleague writes with an essential correction of our first item today (0710 GMT) on Ayatollah Khamenei's meeting yesterday with ""artists, directors, screenwriters, poets, and writers":

"The English version of Khamenei's speech to the artists actually doesn't reflect what the meeting was about. It wasn't for him to give them any guidance but rather, as Fars News fascinating account of it reveals, it was meant for the various artists to speak 'frankly' with Khamenei. While Fars New tries to whitewash some of the conversations that the artists had with Khamenei, it is clear even by their own censored account that it was a raucous meeting and that at least a couple of the artists, including Majid Majidi (who accoring to Fars News breaks down into tears) conveyed some kind of oppositional sentiment. One filmmaker when asked to speak says he doesn't feel well and sits down. Another when told there is no time for him to speak, after he had prepared a talk complains, 'You keep contacting me for a couple of days asking me to come and speak my mind and now you tell me there's no time?'"

1855 GMT: Really? According to Peykeiran, the Supreme Leader's representative with the Revolutionary Guard has warned that the arrest of Mir Hossein Mousavi or Mehdi Karroubi would turn them into martyrs for the Green opposition.

Given that the Supreme Leader supposedly signed the order for Karroubi's arrest two weeks ago, this is a bit confusing. Then again, as our readers are debating in their comments, Ayatollah Khamenei's position may be far from secure.

1800 GMT: Easy Does It. In a measured, even careful, interview with Tabnak, Hashemi Rafsanjani has downplayed his absence from leading Friday Prayers on Qods Day for the first time in a quarter-century: "It is not necessary after 30 years that I should lead the prayers."

1555 GMT: Why are tents being erected around the main campus of Tehran University, where this Friday's prayers will be held?

1545 GMT: Make of this what you will: the Iranian Government has declared national holidays on Saturday and Monday, the day before and after the celebration of the end of Ramadan, Eid al-Fitr.

1310 GMT: Cyber-charge. Talk about a story turning in a few hours. The opposition's aggressive fightback on the Web continues: Mowj-e-Sabz has launched an English-language website.

1215 GMT: Cyber-bounce. Indeed, after our worry this morning (0950 GMT) about a drop in information via the Web, there is a bit of a resurgence. Mehdi Karroubi seems to have a new website for his statements and news. Is this an alternative for the Etemade Melli site, which is still down?

News is also being posted on tagheer.ir.

1200 GMT: If the Iranian regime is trying to block news in and out of Iran, the effort is incomplete. Fereshteh Ghazi has interviewed Ayatollah Mousavi-Tabrizi, who highlights the clerical resistance: "The authorities know [their] pressures have no effect on my position and action or those of Qom scholars." He adds, in relation to the arrest of his children and the family members of other clerics on Monday, "My sons and the sons of Mr. Nazemzadeh and Mr. Ahmadi aren't clerics, so why are they tried in clerics' court?"(summary in English via Ghazi's Twitter account)

Twitter traffic from inside Iran is also picking up.

1120 GMT: The US network NBC is interviewing President Ahmadinejad today and broadcasting the discussion on tomorrow morning's Today programme.

1110 GMT: The Mousavi Facebook page is still active, just posting the statement of Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Ayatollah Khomenei, inviting all Iranians to participate in the rally on Qods Day "a day...for the oppressed to fight oppressors and tyranny".

1100 GMT: Morning MediaFail. CNN ($199/story) are not eligible, since they no longer have news from inside Iran. Instead, the award goes to Robert Tait and The Guardian of London. Amidst all the tension in advance of Qods Day, the confusion over Friday Prayers, the raids, the arrests, the Karroubi letters, the protests by senior clerics, their story today?

"Chinese jeans bearing name of God anger Iranians".

In their quasi-defence, the prominent notation "Read This in Chinese" is a clue that The Guardian's market attention is far away from Tehran.

1050 GMT: Cyber-war. Internet traffic from Iranians inside Iran is almost at a standstill this morning. Nothing is coming through via Twitter and contacts also remove no interaction on Facebook.

Etemade Melli/Saham News and Norooz are down. Mowj-e-Sabz and Kaleme are both up.

0950 GMT: Correcting an oversight. We have reported the arrest of the three grandchildren of Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri on Monday. The children of Ayatollah Hossein Mousavi Tabrizi,were also arrested.

The catalyst for the arrests may have been an Iftar at the house of Ayatollah Yusuf Sane'i. EA has received information that this Iftar, where reformist clerics and their families gathered, angered the regime and also led to the filing of a court action by President Ahmadinejad's office against Sane'i.

0935 GMT: The Islamic Republic News Agency carries the short item that President Ahmadinejad will introduce Ahmad Khatami, who will give the Friday Prayer address this week.

0925 GMT: Associated Press is claiming, from Iranian state radio, that the Government has confirmed Ahmad Khatami will lead Qods Day prayers.

0710 GMT: Yesterday's confusion over Qods Day continues. While Tuesday was a pretty good one for the Green leadership, as Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami signalled that they would join forces with Mehdi Karroubi, the Government's disarray over Friday prayers was never resolved. We've tried to see the events in wider perspective, leading up to Qods Day, in a separate analysis, "Iran's Chess Match: Setting Up the Pieces".

Rather than offer any specific guidance, the Supreme Leader spent Tuesday telling "artists, directors, screenwriters, poets, and writers" that they should be putting out proper art. His reference point was not the current internal conflict but the 1980-1988 war with Iraq: "The eight-year Sacred Defense was the embodiment of outstanding characteristics, prominent cultural values, and lofty beliefs, and those who recount it in an artistic manner are like a mirror reflecting the manifestation of splendor and glory."

If there was contemporary resonance in Ayatollah Khamenei's address, it may be in this cryptic injunction to artists that "their sensitive views should not create a spirit of despair in people".

Middle East Inside Line: Talks with Iran To Start in Turkey; No Progress in Israel-Palestine Discussions

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Direct Talks with Iran on 1 October: The Jerusalem Post reports, from a senior European Union official that "talks on Iran's nuclear program will likely be held in Turkey". Referring to the meeting, scheduled for 1 October, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana said: "The Americans will be present in a formalized manner. This is new."

Europe is ready and waiting for a positive outcome from direct talks between Iranians and the Washington-led international community. Simultaneously, it seems that the US has given consent to Ankara's willingness to be the "bridge" in these negotiations.

No Progress in Israel-Palestine Talks: U.S. Mideast special envoy George Mitchell met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas on Wednesday. Haaretz reports that the talks were fruitless and no agreement came out at the end of talks.

After rounds of meetings, Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat blamed Israel for stalling the resumption of peace talks and insisted that all settlement building must stop. Mitchell also could not get "sufficient" concessions from Netanyahu, as the Israeli Prime Minister rejected concessions on "the natural growth" of the West Bank settlements, on the planned construction of 3,000 new apartments in the West Bank, and on his claim of Israeli ownership of East Jerusalem.

Mitchell said the U.S. is committed to the resumption of peace talks and that he hoped to bring this phase of the effort to a positive conclusion in the coming weeks. The envoy is hoping he can bring Netanyahu and Abbas together with President Barack Obama at the openning of the UN General Assembly session next week. Aides of Abbas reportedly said that he might agree to an informal meeting with Netanyahu in New York.

Iran: The Supreme Leader and the Larijani-Karroubi Meeting

Iran’s Chess Match: Setting Up the Pieces for Friday
The Latest from Iran (16 September): Smoke Before Battle

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Maryam at Keeping the Change has posted an article on Monday's meeting between Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani and Mehdi Karroubi, offering important detail on the discussion. Equally significant is her reading of the power politics behind the encounter:

"The combination of these contradictory tactics may indicate that Khamanei is carefully crafting a strategy for resolving the post-election conflict that applies these different forms of pressure where appropriate. At the same time, however, Khamanei's approach could indicate that the Supreme Leader has a thin, unguided non-strategy and is simply throwing all his resources at the Opposition, in a desperate attempt to end the political standoff -- on this analysis, Khamanei's alternative use of aggression and diplomacy is less an affirmative, calculated decision and more a reaction to the failure of one or the other approach."

Maryam's reading is a vital contrast to our analysis, developed this morning, that it is President Ahmadinejad and his allies that are in the lead with the Supreme Leader scrambling to regain his own position. At the same time, her pondering of "careful strategy" v. "non-strategy" could be applied not only to Ayatollah Khamenei but to the Government's measures in the run-up to Qods Day.

More Details on Karroubi's Meeting Monday with Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani

The website Rouydad adds additional detail to the earlier piece we posted from Karroubi's news outlet, Eteemade Melli. According to this newest report, during yesterday's meeting Karroubi informed Larijani of his concerns with the work of the three-man committee investing the prisoner rape and assault claims, as well as the actions of the state news agecy "Voice & Visage." At the end of the meeting Karroubi reportedly told Larijani of his hope that "unlike his brother [Sadegh Larijani], [Ali Larijani] will not sell his religion to the world." The report goes on to claim that Larijani asked Karroubi to "keep quiet" until the domestic situation improves, promising that his allegations would be properly investigated once calm had been restored. Karroubi replied, "I would prefer death to remaining quite in the face of these violations."

Interestingly, Rouydad's account of the meeting begins with a quotation from a source inside Parliament, stating that: "On the orders of the Supreme Leader, Larijani met with Karroubi. Mr. Larijani is the bearer of the Leader's message." With this in mind, Larijani's request for restraint from Karroubi and Karroubi's purported refusal to do so take on added signficance. As we observed in our earlier post on this meeting, it appears that the Refomists' hand is not as weak as some have suggested and that attempts at conciliation have not been wholly put aside by the Supreme Leader. If anything, this development, taken together with the events of the last week, may indicate that Khamanei is taking multiple approaches to the post-election conflict. On the one hand, he appears to be using some elements of his arsenal, such as the Revolutionary Guard, to strike a confrontational approach with the Reformists, while at the same time using other allies, such as the hardline pragmatic Ali Larijani, to pursue negotiations with Opposition leaders.

The combination of these contradictory tactics may indicate that Khamanei is carefully crafting a strategy for resolving the post-election conflict that applies these different forms of pressure where appropriate. At the same time, however, Khamanei's approach could indicate that the Supreme Leader has a thin, unguided non-strategy and is simply throwing all his resources at the Opposition, in a desperate attempt to end the political standoff -- on this analysis, Khamanei's alternative use of aggression and diplomacy is less an affirmative, calculated decision and more a reaction to the failure of one or the other approach. This reading is borne out by a pattern which appears to have developed post June 12, with periods of intense confrontation followed by spurts of appeasement and vice-versa (witness the fourth Tehran trials and accusations against Reformist leaders of collusion with foreign governments, followed by Khamanei's public statements denying the possibility of any such conspiracy) .

In all likelihood, it is the second analysis that may best capture Khamanei's mindset -- Khamanei is, after all, known to be less than an astute politician, with a tendency to favor uncompromising, agressive political strategies to diplomacy. He is, as such, disinclined to pursue appeasement unless his preferred confrontational approach has failed. In this vein, the recent events surrounding Karroubi are telling. After the raid on his offices, the closure of his newspaper, and the threats of arrest against him have all failed to silence Karroubi, Khamanei may have decided that conciliation should, at least in the short term, be explored. If Karroubi remains defiant, however, we should expect to see Khamanei return to his tried and true aggressive posture.

Other than providing potential insight into Khamanei's political strategy, Karroubi's meeting with Larijani should serve as a small reminder of the in-roads made by the Reformists over the last two months and of the Government's heretofore inability to decisively snuff out the Movement's leaders. There is little doubt that the current situation inside the country, as well as the Government's response, is unique in the history of the Islamic Republic. This is hardly the Iran of 1988, when thousands of political activists were summarily executed, expelled, and otherwise removed from the Iranian political scene. Of course, the circumstances were differen then: those killed and exiled during that period were hardly Establishment darlings, but rather were, by and large, members of dissident groups ideologically opposed to the Islamic Republic; moreover, their elimination was religiously sanctioned by a fatwa issued by Ayatollah Khomeini. Perhaps more tellingly, however, the recent events in Iran also bear little ressemblance to the atmosphere that reigned during the Presidency of Mohammad Khatami, when the Reformists remained cowed and unable to unite against the conservative forces that were working to disrupt Khatami's efforts at change.

Outside of the brutal crackdown against demonstrators, the Government has not yet resorted to large scale violence, such as mass executions or targeted assassinations of Movement leaders, to resolve the crisis. At the same time, the Reformists have managed to maintain some semblance of unity (with Khatami, Karroubi, and Mousavi almost appearing to alternate in the role of "Movement Leader"). Moreover, the Opposition has adapted its tactics in order to maintain pressure on the Government, focusing its message less directly on the election issue and more on the events and incidents that occurred in the aftermath of the dispute, such as the show trials and allegations of prisoner rape and abuse. While these may seem like modest accomplishments, the country's history of political repression and opposition to reform over the last 30 years make them the signposts of a society in transition.

As always, trying to predict where this conflict is headed is futile. What we can conclude, however, is that the Establishment has yet to achieve a decisive victory and that this failure, in and of itself, may tell us more about the future of Iran than any one arrest, office closure, or high-ranking political meeting ever will.

Iran's Chess Match: Setting Up the Pieces for Friday

The Latest from Iran (16 September): Smoke Before Battle
Iran: The Supreme Leader and the Larijani-Karroubi Meeting
Iran Analysis: Checking the Scorecard of Opposition
The Latest from Iran (15 September): Momentum Builds

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It was a quieter day on Tuesday, but make no mistake, there were some significant moves. And in those moves were the indications of both possibilities and problems for the opposition and for the Government.

For the Green movement, yesterday brought alignment of the pieces. Mehdi Karroubi, to say the least, is already in play; the question now, after all the Government threats against him, is how high a profile he takes on Friday. Tuesday morning brought the entry of Mir Hossein Mousavi with the announcement that he would participate in the Qods Day demonstration and encourage followers to do so; Mohammad Khatami repeated the process in the afternoon.

Expect the "followers" today to make their declarations, with political activists and possibly some clerical groups issuing statements that Qods Day will be their day. The obvious challenge is to turn declaration into mass practice. Communications within Iran are still difficult, and the threat of arrests and violence is strong. How many turn out on the street in the next 48 hours?

The most striking story on Tuesday, however, came on the Government side. The regime was preparing to shut out Hashemi Rafsanjani from Qods Day prayers so President Ahmadinejad could introduce his hard-line supporter, Ahmad Khatami, and signal that Enough is Enough and This Game is Over; however, its powerful move turned into farce. Pro-Government outlets such as Fars News, seeking a dramatic proclamation, leaked the news, and the regime spent the rest of the day issuing denials, clarifications, and wait-and-sees amidst the confusion.

This morning we still don't know who will take the podium on Wednesday. Fars now makes no reference to Friday prayers, and the Islamic Republic News Agency prefers "Green Wave disturbance in the scramble for Qods rallies". I still think Ahmadinejad-Khatami is the plan for Friday, but the Government has converted an opportunity into a fumble and stumble.

This is not an indication that the the President is trouble. Paradoxically, the bungling comes from a position of power. Ahmadinejad and his allies can issue declarations, send out security forces for raids and arrests, and count on almost all of the state media to put out supporting "news".

At the same time, this is a large bureaucracy, so signs of clever co-ordination may actually be officials working off different scripts. For example, is the near-simultaneous release of some high-ranking opposition activists (for example, Mousavi campaign manager Javad Emam yesterday) and the arrest of others (Karroubi advisor Fayez Ahzad) the ultimate in carrot-and-stick or is it a confusion over whether to offer limited concession or bring down the fist?

This is a bureaucracy which is supposed to be governing --- running an economy, providing services, pursuing a foreign policy. For all the headlines that the third task is being pursued, with the dance around talks with Western powers and Ahmadinejad's forthcoming appearance at the UN, the other two areas aren't exactly inspiring confidence.

This is a bureaucracy which is not yet secure "within". After the apparent victory quelling conservative and principlist concerns, symbolised by the approval of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet, the last 48 hours have brought the first signs that leading MPs may be ready to poke the President in the eye once again. The symbolic issue is currently the nomination of the First Vice President, Mohammad Reza Rahimi: how much of a groundswell against him is signalled by the accusations of high-profile conservatives like Morteza Motahhari and Ahmad Tavakoli (who is close to the Larijanis)?

I'm not even sure this is a bureaucracy which has a comfortable alignment of power between the Supreme Leader and the President. Weeks of shifting relations between the two were supposed to culminate in last Friday's prayers, where Ayatollah Khamenei would put to rest the notion that the opposition could prevail against his Government. Instead, the "other" moves of the week --- the raids and arrests, the threats against opposition leaders --- brought the question: is the Supreme Leader now a follower of Ahmadinejad and the Revolutionary Guard? And yesterday just adds a punctuation mark. Who exactly is deciding what takes place on Friday?

And oh, yes, one other question as the timer for this chess match is started. While the opposition tries to line up for Friday and the Government looks to convert its immediate advantages of more powerful forces into checkmate, what happens to the piece that was supposed to be taken off the board on Tuesday?

Enduring America readers have shrewdly recognised and alerted others that Hashemi Rafsanjani is not the opposition movement. At the same time, he has been a catalyst --- symbolic and political --- for those trying to put pressure on the regime.

Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami, thousands (how many thousands?) are ready to make moves on Friday. But does the former President suddenly jump onto the board --- and if so, are his own moves coordinated with those of the other pieces? --- or does he stand aside, possibly waiting for the Assembly of Experts meeting next Tuesday?

Qods Day is two days away.

The Latest from Iran (15 September): Momentum Builds

NEW Iran Analysis: Checking the Scorecard of Opposition
UPDATED Iran: Complete Text of Karroubi Letter to The Iranian People (14 September)
Iran: The Rafsanjani Statement on Qods Day
Iran: The Protest Goes On
The Latest from Iran (14 September): Countdown to Friday

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2100 GMT: This summer's proposed privatisation of Iran Telecom has had everything from Russian involvement to Revolutionary Guard manoeuvring, so make what you will of this story from Press TV: "Iran has postponed the planned flotation of the country's Telecommunications Company, originally scheduled for Wednesday, in the Tehran Stock Exchange."

1730 GMT: Battle Renewed? From this morning's analysis: "One of [the challengers], conservative and principlist critics of the Government, has remained silent."

Well, we need to make a minor amendment. Sniping has resumed over President Ahmadinejad's choice of First Vice President, Mohammad Reza Rahimi. Yesterday prominent conservative MP Ali Motahhari said the appointment of Rahimi signalled "bad taste" and "a tendency to quarrel" by Ahmadinejad. Rahimi's academic credentials presented "the same problems" as the ones possessed by former Minister of the Interior, Ali Kordan, who was forced to resign for falsely claiming a doctorate from Oxford University.

Today MP Ahmad Tavakoli echoed, "Rahimi’s degree is fake and similar to Kordan’s.” He added, “Appointing someone who has a record of lying and abusing power who can potentially substitute for the president is regrettable.”

So it is this a re-run of Ahmadinejad's failed effort in July to appoint Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as First Vice President, an affair which damaged the President for a few weeks until he was able to push through his Cabinet choices?

1700 GMT: Khatami's In. An official from Mohammad Khatami's office says that the former President invites all Iranians to participate in Qods Day ceremonies "to protest the occupation of Palestine and the oppression of Palestinians".

1440 GMT: Meanwhile, HomyLafayette's blog has a useful summary of the still-uncertain situation regarding Hashemi Rafsanjani's leadership/non-leadership of Qods Day Friday prayers. in contrast to our own reading that the regime has now blocked the former President's appearance, the blog still says, "Will he or won't he?", before concluding, "For the protesters who aim to demonstrate in huge numbers on Friday, the answer may well turn out to be irrelevant."

1430 GMT: Qods Day Latest. The story of Mir Hossein Mousavi's participation (1120 GMT) is firming up. Mousavi's website Kaleme, supported by Zahra Rahnavard's Facebook page, announces, "Following many questions regarding the Qods Day rally, the office of Mir Hossein Mousavi has announced that Mousavi will attend the rally side-by-side with the people of Iran, as this is the day to support the innocent and oppressed."

The Internet is buzzing with the story that Mehdi Karroubi and Mohammad Khatami will also be present at the gathering. No sign yet, however, of a joint statement amongst the three leaders.

1320 GMT: No Carrot, Just Stick. Ten minutes after reporting the release of Mousavi campaign manager Javad Emam, we get news that Karroubi advisor Fayez Zahad has been arrested.

1315 GMT: Those Pesky Clerics. The Iranian Labour News Agency reports that Grand Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani has had a "dialogue" with Grand Ayatollah Mousavi Ardebili on on the "issues and current events in the country".

It's this cute phrase, however, that highlights the significance of the discussion: "It must be pointed out during a similar meeting last week between several senior clerics was held." That "similar meeting" led to a letter to the Supreme Leader criticising the legitimacy of the Ahmadinejad Government.

1310 GMT: Stick. Carrot. Report that Javad Imam, Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign manager, has been released on bail after three months in detention.

1305 GMT: The Regime Blocks Rafsanjani. The urgent announcement on the Islamic Republic News Agency says, from "an informed source", that Hashemi Rafsanjani's appearance at Qods Day Friday prayers has been "cancelled".  A replacement will be named tomorrow.

Note "cancelled". Rafsanjani did not withdraw; the regime has decided that he will not be leading because, according to the informed source, his presence might bring unwanted political activity.

This explains the confusion this morning. The Government was obviously making its replacement plan, with Ahmad Khatami leading on Friday, but was not ready to make its move when Press TV/Fars leaked the news.

1300 GMT: Drawing the Line. Grand Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib has warned that the arrests of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi, would be “an unrecoverable mistake”. Dastgheib said the opposition "do not want to and cannot threaten” and “we neither have military nor ability to deal with trained officers, tear gas and guns”; however, people have the right to express their anger and arresting the reformist leaders “will have unfortunate consequences for everyone”.

1120 GMT: Mousavi's In. The Green movement's website Mowj-e-Sabz has announced that Mir Hossein Mousavi will attend the demonstrations on Friday for Qods Day. Mousavi will also be issuing a statements urging his followers to join.

1100 GMT: After the rush of news and rumour this morning, a quiet phase. Fars has not updated its claim that Ahmad Khatami will lead this Friday's prayers.

Press TV, meanwhile, wins the award for today's ambiguous article, "Rafsanjani Urges Epic Turnout for Qods Day", avoiding any reference to internal matters for the motive "to foil world powers' plot to sow discord among Muslims".

0830 GMT: Or Maybe Not. Tabnak claims that the head of the Friday Prayers Committee has denied that Ahmad Khatami has been selected as the speaker on Qods Day.

Personally, I think this is just embarrassment that the news has leaked. Expect Khatami to be confirmed in a few hours.

0820 GMT: Your Qods Day Friday Prayer Leader is.... Ahmad Khatami. Press TV has just reported this news, which is reprinted by Fars.

0815 GMT: It is No Longer Quiet. Fasten your seatbelts, folks, because this ride just got faster. Fars News reports that President Ahmadinejad will introduce the Friday Prayers speaker on Qods Day.

0755 GMT: Confession --- this is a "holding" entry, as very little has emerged this morning after yesterday's rush of developments. We've tried to bring everything together in a new analysis, "Checking the Scorecard of Opposition".

We also have an updated, complete translation of Mehdi Karroubi's letter to the Iranian people (thanks to Evan Siegel) and last night's statement by Hashemi Rafsanjani.