Iran: Josh Shahryar on the Significance of 13 Aban

Iran Video: The Tribute to 13 Aban’s Protesters
Iran: Josh Shahryar on Fictions & Realities of “Revolution”
Iran’s New 13 Aban: “A Major Blow to Khamenei’s Authority”
Iran’s New 13 Aban: A First-Hand Account from the Streets
Iran’s New 13 Aban: “The Green Wave Has Bounced Back”
The Latest from Iran (6 November): The Day After The Day After

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

I had to wait two days to write this because I honestly did not know what was most important about the 4 November protests. There was so much to absorb that, at one point, I had to take a cold shower for distraction. But 48 hours is enough time to figure out what I believe might be the best explanations or speculations about the events that transpired.

The most important outcome, in my opinion, was that not a single life was lost. This is the first time since 12 June that a major protest day passed without the death of a protester. This could mean two things. Either the security forces misfired and failed to kill anyone or they were ordered not to kill (of course there’s a slight glimmer of hope that they might have defied orders to kill, but I’d say that would be a bit too optimistic).

The more plausible explanation is that there was a firm line as to how far security forces could. There were thousands of protesters and there were thousands of security forces, and the clashes were violent. Tear gas was fired indiscriminately. But no one shot at demonstrators.

If this is true, then the government has really gambled with its chances of staying in power. If there is no fear of death among the marchers, they could turn out in even larger numbers the next time.

The second most important issue was Mehdi Karroubi’s presence. You’d think that the government would stop this guy from attending these protests and galvanizing the masses. But it didn’t, and he showed up. Not only did he show up, but he was also attacked, adding a little more to his charisma.

At a time when dozens of politicians are in jail or on trial, and Mir Hossein Mousavi is under effective house arrest, the appearance of a high-profile leader at a rally can mean only one thing: unlike the case with other opposition figures, the Government’s hands are tied when it comes to Karroubi. The tear-gas attack on Karroubi's vehicle seemed more like a frustrated establishment attempting to deter him, precisely because it could not take more aggressive action. Probably because the regime is divided over what to do with him, Karroubi is not detained or shut up in his house. Instead, he parades around like a Jedi Master whenever he wants to.

Then there came the moment when the videos of masses screaming denunciation of Supreme Leader Ali Hossein Khamenei surfaced. Fear of directly accusing Khamenei of being a tyrant is no more. As it is said in Pashto, “Every clay pot breaks some day.”

And the people didn’t just stop at denouncing him. They tore down his picture from the billboard, they threw it on the ground, and they stomped over it jubilantly with the grace of ballerinas.

It’s on. And it’s no longer about people’s votes being stolen by Ahmadinejad or the Guardian Council. It is also about Khamenei’s reign of terror, as the masses made it clear that he was one of their list. The immunity he has enjoyed over the past five months vanished within seconds. To the demonstrators, he is now just another violator of basic human rights.

And as a bonus, for the first time (seems like so many first times occurred on 13 Aban), Government-run or Government-censored media were finally able to speak at least some of what is on their minds. Press TV’s article that described the protesters coming out in thousands might have appeared in error. But it sure showed which side the writers of the article were supporting.

Parleman News, a website that acts as an outlet for some parliamentarians, featured an article about both the pro-Government and the Green protests, but while the introduction was about the former, the was more about the latter. The next article juxtaposed praise for Khamenei’s recent remarks with pictures of the people who had desecrated the Leader’s image.

Yes, 13 Aban is over. Most protesters are home. Some are in jail. Some are groaning in pain from their wounds. Others are likely hiding. But their courage has likely changed the game.

Iran's New 13 Aban: "The Green Wave Has Bounced Back"

LATEST Iran’s New 13 Aban: “A Major Blow to Khamenei’s Authority”
Iran's New 13 Aban: A First-Hand Account from the Streets
Iran: Mehdi Karroubi’s Son on 13 Aban Incidents
Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 3rd Set)
Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 2nd Set)
Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 1st Set)
Text: President Obama’s Statement on Iran (4 November)
Iran: Josh Shahryar on Fictions & Realities of “Revolution”
The Latest from Iran (4 November — 13 Aban): Today Is The Day

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

UPDATE 1600 GMT: EA's Chris Emery has now posted a response, adding to Mr Smith's points that 13 Aban has been "a major blow to the Supreme Leader's authority".

---

Mr Smith, who was one of the EA correspondents following and updating on yesterday's events, offers his analysis:

The Green Wave has bounced back. The strongly-worded threats by the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps did not deter the supporters of Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, who made it to the police-infested streets of Tehran in their tens of thousands for yet another day of demonstrations, countering the official ones organised by the Ahmadinejad-Khamenei regime.

Yesterday's events are yet again proof of the fact that the opposition has not been defeated and is not going away. Nearly five months into the Iranian post-electoral crisis, the Ahmadinejad-Khamenei camp has not quite figured out a workable plan to fulfil its intent of silencing the critics. The litany of street violence unleashed by security forces, the background of the occasional killing and raping of reformist activists, and the current warnings by the IRGC and Ayatollah Khamenei that criticism of the "legitimate government" amounted to a crime did little to cow the Green Wave supporters. Instead, the Supreme Leader found himself at the receiving end of the street chants.

Yesterday's events also effectively ended the regime's capacity to use key Islamic Republic commemorations for its benefit. The Al-Jazeera English correspondent in Tehran portrayed the Green Wave demonstrations as a "hijacking" of the 13 Aban traditional marches. This interpretation is highly debatable, given that the perpetrators of the assault on the US embassy 30 years ago are now regime enemies, either languishing in jail, such as Mohsen Mirdamadi, or hovering in silence, such as the noted political analyst Abbas Abdi.

Another key outcome from yesterday's protests is the remarkable capacity of the rank-and-file to organise major events "from below", without needing or waiting for the go-ahead from its leadership. In fact, Mousavi and Karroubi are now effectively running after their own supporters and offering fatherly advice to them, rather than acting as beacons for the start of direct action.

And do not underestimate the damage of yesterday to the slight legitimacy that the current Government possesses. The amateur footage of young unarmed women being beaten up by riot police and the widespread accounts of violence meted out by security forces will do little to back up the official claim that a small group of "troublemakers" were dealt with humanely by the police. The new round of arrests against student activists and journalists effectively wipes out the scant concessions offered by the release on bail of eminent reformist personalities such as the newspaper editor Mohammad Ghoochani and the noted journalist Hengameh Shahidi. [Editor's note: That concession is very limited, given that Shahidi appeared yesterday in Revolutionary Court to face charges.]

However, not everything is rosy for the reformists. The heavy "security atmosphere", the Iranian euphemism for the massive presence of police forces on the streets, is having its effects. The number of participants to the 13 Aban demonstrations was considerably lower, by all accounts, than that of the Qods Day marches of 18 September. Many potential participants await news of police deployment before setting out in the streets.
And the leadership is bearing the brunt of its followers' enthusiasm and relative success. While Karroubi is staunchly appearing in public events, only to be confronted violently by the security forces, Mousavi is effectively in virtual house arrest, prevented from joining crowds of any size. Former President Mohammad Khatami is even more detached, while Hashemi Rafsanjani has gone back to his behind-the-scenes scheming.

More than ever, the Green movement now needs a clear-cut, cogent, middle- to long-term political strategy that will harness the strong popular resentment against Ahmadinejad to plans for the fall of the present government and the establishment of an alternative one, be that in the guise of a "National Unity" coalition or another form. There are reasons to believe that this possiblity is not far-fetched. Political enmity between Ahmadinejad and his conservative opponents is on the rise once again. The Brothers Larijani have contrived to block or delay any possible nuclear deal between the government and the International Atomice Energy Agency, for fear of the credit it would bring to Ahmadinejad. The subsidy plan proposed by the President has unravelled after a public quarrel between the president and Ali Larijani, the Speaker of the Majlis.

A deal between Mousavi, Karroubi, and the Larijanis is still distant on the horizon. However, the two reformist leaders must attempt to turn the sizeable following they command into political capital. Up to that point, the Green movement will resemble the "creative chaos" that has often appeared in recent Iranian political history but has only occasionally succeeded in attaining its long-term goals. A nervous and vicious stalemate hangs right now over the political skyline of Tehran, with the shadows of the Islamic Republic's most enduring political crisis becoming deeper than ever.

The Latest from Iran (4 November --- 13 Aban): Today Is The Day

NEW Iran: Mehdi Karroubi’s Son on 13 Aban Incidents
NEW Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November --- 3rd Set)
NEW Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November --- 2nd Set)
NEW Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November --- 1st Set)
Text: President Obama’s Statement on Iran (4 November)
NEW Iran: Josh Shahryar on Fictions & Realities of “Revolution”
Latest Iran Video: Rooftop “Allahu Akhbar” Chants (3 November)
Latest Iran Video: Protests at Iranian Universities and a High School (3 November)
Iran: A Response to “What If the Green Movement Isn’t Ours?” (The Sequel)
Iran: A Response to an American Who Asks, “What if the Green Movement Isn’t ‘Ours’?
Iran: More 13 Aban Videos
The Latest from Iran (3 November): 24 Hours to Go

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

2100 GMT: Today's #1 Unseen Story. With all the developments on the streets, I doubt many noticed that former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi and journalist Hengameh Shahidi appeared in the Revolutionary Court today. Shahidi was released last week on $90,000 bail after going on hunger strike; Abtahi has been in detention since June.

Instead of defending herself, Shahidi asked the judge to free her friend Fariba Pajooh, whose order for detention was reaffirmed two weeks ago.

1902 GMT: Josh Shahryar, having gone through the videos and reports of today's events, estimates that 25,000 to 30,000 opposition demonstrators were on the streets of Tehran at some point during 13 Aban. An estimated 2000-3000 were marching in Isfahan, but there is not enough information yet to project the numbers in other cities.

1900 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz has posted an overview of the events of 13 Aban, the "Greenest day of the year".

1845 GMT: Following today's encounter between Mehdi Karroubi and Iranian security forces near 7 Tir Square, we've posted the video of the BBC interview with Karroubi's son.

1755 GMT: Has Press TV Joined the Cause? Really. Here is the lead of their latest report on 13 Aban, and notice who gets first billing:

Thousands of supporters of defeated presidential candidates, Mehdi Karroubi and Mir-Hossein Mousavi, have held a rally in the Iranian capital as the country commemorated the 30th anniversary of the US Embassy takeover.

The main anti-government rally took place at a central square in Tehran on Wednesday, November 4, our correspondent Leila Faramarzi reported.....

Tens of thousands of Iranians took to the streets to commemorate the day [of the anniversary of the US Embassy takeover], dubbed as the national day of fighting global arrogance. They also decried the policy of the Obama administration towards the Islamic Republic.

1725 GMT: Reports that activist Hasan Asad Zaidabadi, student activist Ali Mashmooli, journalist Nafiseh Zare-Kohan, women's rights activist Wahideh Molavi, and politicians Hojjat Sharifi, Ali Maleehi, Mohammad Sadeghi, and Mohammad Hashemi were arrested today. Coming on top of the regime's detention of three leading members of the reformist student organisation Daftar-Takhim-Vahdat, the news is apparent confirmation of the Government's strategy to break the core of the opposition movement.

Mowj-e-Sabz has a longer list of names of some of those arrested today.

1605 GMT: We've started a third set of videos.

1555 GMT: And More Cities.... Reports now confirm protests in Kermanshah and Zahedan.

1540 GMT: Parleman News has just published a story, with excellent photos, covering the diversity of both pro-Government and opposition protests in Isfahan.

1505 GMT: More on What Happened to Mousavi (see 1315 and 1345 GMT).

Mir Hossein Mousavi's website Kalemeh reports that all communication, including cell phones and internet connections, were shut down in the area surrounding the Farhangestan Academy of Art, where Mousavi’s office is located. Dozens of plainclothes bikers, supported by security forces, gathered in front of both entrances, chanting against Mousavi. One group attacked and entered the Academy of Arts.

The attackers backed off, but Mousavi’s car, which was planning to take the leader to the rally, was prevented from exiting the Academy by the heavy presence of security forces.

1425 GMT: Regime Goes After Rafsanjani?

Sharp-eyed readers will have noticed, in contrast to previous rallies, Hashemi Rafsanjani from our updates today. Once events have settled, our analysis will probably have to account for a Green movement that can no longer for backing from or even convergence with the former President.

That doesn't mean, however, that the regime is not keeping an eye on Rafsanjani. Fars News has just posted a lengthy article claiming that his youngest son, Yaser, was leading a group of 50-100 protesters at 7 Tir Square. Police dispersed them and arrested some of the "goons", who had damaged property. Mehdi Karroubi was forced to leave the square after seeing no one had turned up.

1350 GMT: Another Snap Analysis (see 0920 GMT).

Just before noon, I had drafted a fairly pessimistic reading of today's events, based on the rather limited turnout of "thousands" (compared to expectations), the security forces' push-back against Mehdi Karroubi, and the lack of news from other leaders like Mir Hossein Mousavi. Marchers had been unable to achieve their primary goal of getting to major gathering points for a mass statement.

Some of my EA colleagues still hold this view, but I'm now withdrawing my draft. There are too many spontaneous and re-routed gatherings to say that the Green movement has been suppressed. And the footage that we are coming from outside Tehran, more than in previous rallies, indicates that there is a spread of the opposition.

Moreover, while the quantity of protestors may be less than expected, the strength of the sentiment is not to be underestimated. Despite all the regime's intimidation and threats, demonstrators are openly calling the Supreme Leader a "murderer" and stomping on his picture. Security forces may able to use tear gas and bullets in the air to keep them from the largest squares but they cannot remove them from the streets.

There is a half-empty argument that the spread of protest through the city shows the weakness of the Green movement, as security forces can risk moving from the key points to pursue demonstrators through the city. The half-full response is that those protestors --- whether fleeing or chanting or standing firm --- are being seen.

13 Aban is now 14 hours old.

1345 GMT: We've Found Mousavi. Mir Hossein Mousavi was not at home this morning. He is at the Farhangestan Cultural Center, completely surrounded by plainsclothes security forces. Some have attacked and entered the building, while others are outside chanting.

1315 GMT: And Where is Mir Hossein Mousavi? According to Rah-e-Sabz, he is under house arrest since early morning, surrounded by security forces.

1305 GMT: More on the Karroubi Incident (see 0930 and 1054 GMT).

Mehdi Karroubi got out of his car about 1,800 feet away from 7 Tir Square. About 300 feet from the square, security forces stood before Karroubi and stopped him from going further. Tear gas was fired at where Karroubi stood. One of his guards was hit on the head with a shell and was hospitalized. Karroubi suffered skin irritation and small burns from the tear gas and was forced to leave the area.

Karroubi returned to his car, which was attacked by security forces and badly damaged. The car finally moved towards Motahhari Avenue; along the way, Karroubi got out of the car many times to talk to people. (hat tip to Josh Shahryar)

1220 GMT: Too Many Good Clips. So we've started a second set of videos to add to our first collection.

1205 GMT: Another City? Josh Shahryar has reports of a rally in Isfahan with 2000-3000 people.

1150 GMT: Next Green Wave? Reports of protests and clashes throughout Tehran, including Vali-e Asr Avenue and Square, in front of the dormintory at the Polytechnic, Beh-Afareen Avenue, and Hafez Avenue. People are moving towards Vanak Square.

1123 GMT: Oops! It appears that the Iranian Labor News Agency was a collateral-damage victim when the Government cut off communications today. It seems that ILNA was unable to update its website for hours because of disruptions to Internet service around Enghelab Square.

1054 GMT: So What Happened to Karroubi? One of Mehdi Karroubi's sons, Mohammad Taghi Karroubi, has spoken to Radio Farda about this morning's events in 7 Tir Square. He says Karroubi was prevented from reaching the square by police forces. Two bodyguards were injured, as well as many other people, as police forces shot tear gas canisters at Karroubi and the surrouding crowd. (One of the bodyguards is still in hospital.) Karroubi's son also says that his father did not pack up and go home but joined people in other squares.

1045 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz, which seems to be back to full speed, has a lengthy summary of the morning's events. It adds Tabriz and Arak to the list of cities where protests have occurred.

1025 GMT: Regrouping. After what appears to be the setback at 7 Tir Square, Mehdi Karroubi's Tagheer website has put out a denunciation of the "forces of dictatorship" of the police, security forces, and Revolutionary Guard who have confronted the "thousands of Iranian people" who protested this morning.

The statement appears, at this point, to be an admission that numbers of marchers have been relatively low ("thousands" rather than "tens of thousands"), putting the blame on the oppression of the regime.

1000 GMT: More on Government Strategy - Constrict and Shut Down Opposition. It appears Mowj-e-Sabz, the best source inside Iran for developments today, is running sporadically and slowly.

0940 GMT: The Guardian is reporting, from "a contact", more clashes in Ghaem Magham Farahani street near 7 Tir Square with some people covered in blood.

Meanwhile, Josh Shahryar passes on reports that many people were detained this morning and held in Al-Javad mosque in Tehran. We are trying to verify.

0930 GMT: The Karroubi Story. Mowj-e-Sabz is claiming that Mehdi Karroubi was beaten by "pro-coup forces and thugs" when he joined marchers near 7 Tir Square. We are treating this claim with great caution until we can get further information.

0920 GMT: Deep Breath Time.

We're assessing here at end of Act One of today. So far, the headline events are disappointing for the Green movement: Mehdi Karroubi showed up at 7 Tir Square but soon had to withdraw (whether because of risk of violence, threat of arrest, or another reason is unclear). Security forces have prevented large gatherings at other major sites. And there has no sign of, or even word from, figures like Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami.

On the other hand, it is still relatively early in the day. Following patterns of earlier encounters, including Qods Day, the anti-Government movement will now move into a series of hit-and-run protests throughout Tehran. And there is already news of marches in other cities. That alone should keep attention on the demonstrations.

But will there be motivation and opportunity for the scattered marches to merge into one large symbolic presence, taking this day beyond 30 July and Qods Day and reviving the first post-election mass demonstrations?

0915 GMT: Blinkered Media (3). From EA correspondent: IRIB's domestic channel is no longer showing live footage of the pro-Government rally. An "expert" in the studio is blasting Western media for making up stories of anti-Government protests: "They picked up footage from [our] News Channel but implied through their own subtitles that something else is happening on the streets of Tehran. They are implying that anti-Revolutionary activity is happening on the streets of Tehran."

0910 GMT: Reports of protests on Khogare Shomali Avenue in Tehran.

0905 GMT: We're bouncing back from a computer problem to bring you up to speed. Four videos from today --- three from Tehran, one from Rasht --- are posted in a separate entry.

Mowj-e-Sabz is reporting a large protest in Shiraz. That makes three cities besides Tehran where marches have been confirmed: Shiraz, Mazandaran, and Rasht.

0835 GMT: EA correspondent Mr Smith checks in to give a snap analysis:

The Revolutionary Guard wasn't joking. As feared, the threats were real.

No sign of Mousavi or Khatami--- they have been cowed off the streets. However,
the Ferdowsi Square clashes are significant, as Ferdowsi is nowhere close to the ruote of Karroubi. That shows the spontaneity of these protests. They are basically there alone --- no leader in sight --- which shows the "movement from below" nature of this crisis.

0830 GMT: Reuters is first "Western" news service to report, "Mousavi supporters clash with police in Tehran". BBC English has followed.

0825 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz is also reporting on clashes at Ferdowsi Square. Josh Shahryar is reporting that Internet connections have been severely disrupted inside Iran. Cellphone service sporadic.

0810 GMT: The Green movement's Mowj-e-Sabz is now posting on the morning events. It has pieces on Karroubi's march to join the crowd, shooting "at the crowds" (we are treating this as an exaggeration of shots fired in the air), beatings and arrests, and the Mazandaran protest.

0800 GMT: Momentum. We are now treating the reports of Karroubi in the crowd as confirmed; a second good source is carrying the news.

And news is coming in of protests outside Tehran. We are treating news of a gathering in Mazandaran in northern Iran as probable, and there are unconfirmed claims of protests in Shiraz, Arak, and Isfahan.

0750 GMT: A Big Moment? It is being reported that Mehdi Karroubi is moving towards 7 Tir Square to join crowds.

0745 GMT: Report that "100s walk towards 7 Tir square holding up V signs. No anti-government chants. Cars honk in heavy traffic jams".

And Josh Shahryar writes that he has confirmation that some people have been beaten up in the clashes at Tehran University and near 7 Tir Square.

0740 GMT: As with previous marches, we are in a tricky early phase where it is hard to separate truth from rumour on the clashes between security forces and protestors. At this point, it appears that the forces are trying to disperse the crowds, using tear gas and possibly firing shots into the air.

0730 GMT: Press TV English have now joined Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting for live coverage of the pro-Government rally outside the US Embassy.

0725 GMT: Earlier this morning security forces arrested Mohsen Amoozadeh, a member of youth wing of the Mousavi campaign.

0715 GMT: Government Strategy Unfolds. Reports of clashes at 7 Tir Square and between University students and security forces, as Government attempts to keep people away from the major gathering points.

0710 GMT: Latest from Twitter:

1. Security forces are completely alert at Ferdowsi and are equipped with combat helmet, batons and tear gas.
2. Forces have taken over Enghelab [Square] across from Ferdowsi.

0700 GMT: The Regime Strategy. OK, I think I have a read on how the Government is trying to shut down this day of opposition. Seal off major gathering points such as 7 Tir Square and bottle up groups like University students from reaching them. Broadcast non-stop footage of the pro-Government rally outside the US Embassy and hope no one notices the protests.

So far they seem to have had some success, but we're getting reports of "thousands" in locations from 7 Tir Square to Laleh Park and this day has only begun.

0645 GMT: Blinkered Media (2). CNN, to its credit, is highlighting the Iran story, but it is off to a bad start. The anchor started the 0610 GMT report with, "Demonstrations are underway to mark the anniversary of the US Embassy siege, and some anti-establishment protests are also expected." However, because CNN's correspondent, Shirzad Bozorgmehr, is outside the US Embassy, he sees only the thousands of students and police and army cadets chanting  "Death to America" and "Death to Israel" and singing "nationalistic slogans".

Bozorgmehr continues, "I see no sign of counter-demonstrations by the opposition on the streets at all," which is not surprising since the Green rallies are beginning in other parts of Tehran. And so he keeps saying, "So far they haven't shown up."

0640 GMT: Latest reports via Twitter:

1. Helicopter are flying, roads are still filled with anti-riot and security police. People have not fully formed groups yet.
2. Tehran University students are leaving the university by chanting "Down with Dictator". Riot police are blocking students from exiting.

0630 GMT: Blinkered Media (Part 1). And how is Press TV covering 13 Aban so far? Live shots of pro-Government crowd outside the US Embassy with voiceover, "Iran marks 30th anniversary of seizure with anti-US rallies". Not a word, unsurprisingly, on gatherings elsewhere in Tehran.

And then the channel switches to a 30-minute profile of Jundallah, the Baluch insurgent group responsible for last month's suicide bombing in southwestern Iran.

0625 GMT: Your Comic Media Highlight of the Day.

I am not making this up. When we started blogging this morning, Press TV's English service was broadcasting a documentary called "Electile Dysfunction".

For a moment, I thought Iranian state media had decided, belatedly, to consider the incidents on and after the 12 June Presidential election. But only for a moment --- this was an old documentary on the corruptions, biases, and inequalities of the US electoral process.

0620 GMT: Reports that people starting to gather in 7 Tir Square. Also reported that Sharif University students are moving towards Tehran University in center of the city.

0600 GMT: We have posted the text of President Obama's statement on Iran. At first glance, it is extremely clever: Obama turns the history of the 1979 Embassy takeover into his desire to "move beyond this past and seek a relationship with the Islamic Republic of Iran based upon mutual interests and mutual respect".

Obama then moves to the current nuclear talks --- "if Iran lives up to the obligations that every nation has, it will have a path to a more prosperous and productive relationship with the international community" --- but it is his shift to the situation inside Iran that is most significant. Having already declared, "We do not interfere in Iran’s internal affairs," he concludes:

Iran must choose. We have heard for thirty years what the Iranian government is against; the question, now, is what kind of future it is for. The American people have great respect for the people of Iran and their rich history. The world continues to bear witness to their powerful calls for justice, and their courageous pursuit of universal rights. It is time for the Iranian government to decide whether it wants to focus on the past, or whether it will make the choices that will open the door to greater opportunity, prosperity, and justice for its people.

To my knowledge, this is the first direct comment by a high-level US official, let alone Obama, on Iran's political situation since June.

0555 GMT: Initial reports from Iranian sources via Twitter:

1. There are reports of heavy anti-riot police and plainclothes present in 7 Tir [Square in Tehran].
2. Family friend from Shiraz: Military and Police surrounding TV and radio station.
3. All streets ending to former US Embassy are closed.

0550 GMT: EA correspondent Josh Shahryar has written a special analysis for 13 Aban, considering the Green movement in the context of the 1989 risings in Eastern Europe and China: "Fictions and Realities of 'Revolution'".

0530 GMT: Good morning.

It is 9 a.m., local time, in Tehran, and we are in place for a day which --- from my distant perception --- has produced the greatest excitement and highest expectation since early in the post-election crisis. As an EA reader summarised yesterday, putting 13 Aban in the context of the last mass march in Iran:

On Qods Day [18 September] we were full of fear and doubt. I personally didn’t know how big the crowd will be, we went out and throw our hearts at the sea.

Tommorw I have no doubts that there will be masses on the street. Tomorrow I have no fear when I march, for I have faced fear in the face, and won on Qods Day.

Only a fool would predict what is to unfold, but my fool's sense is that this gathering will surpass even the hundreds of thousands who emerged in various marches and gatherings on Qods Day. In the last six weeks, the Government has tried and failed to blunt, let alone crush the opposition movement. Mehdi Karroubi's symbolic appearance at the Iran Media Fair, Mir Hossein Mousavi's statements with renewed vigor and hope, the building university demonstrations, and just the amount of information and video reaching us and the world: all support our reader. Hope accompanies and possibly trumps fear, desires for the future trump resignation and passivity.

Today is 13 Aban.

Iran: Mehdi Karroubi's Son on 13 Aban Incidents

Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 3rd Set)
Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 2nd Set)
Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 1st Set)
The Latest from Iran (4 November — 13 Aban): Today Is The Day

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

Karoubi son tell how his father was harmed by security force
by khandaniha

Iran: A Response to "What If the Green Movement Isn't Ours?" (The Sequel)

Iran: A Response to an American Who Asks, “What if the Green Movement Isn’t ‘Ours’?
Iran: More 13 Aban Videos
The Latest from Iran (3 November): 24 Hours to Go

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

UPDATE 1030 GMT: Interestingly Daragahi is now singing a somewhat different tune on Twitter, quoting a "Tehran analyst": "Youth seem determined 2 show up for 13 Aban. May not be huge number but significant and agile walk of youth will turn up. Numbers will be enough to make BBC Persian and VOA other news agencies [notice]. The way every official is warning the young [against gathering is going to be counterproductive."

Again, with apologies in advance, I am reacting to an article in a US newspaper about the Green movement in Iran.

I do not want to do this. It is only 24 hours since I wrote about themisinformation and (in my opinion, misplaced) priorities of Jackson Diehl's opinion piece in The Washington Post. And the focus, not only for 13 Aban but on every day, should be on what is happening in Iran rather than the diversions of the "Western" media.

However, this morning there is an analysis by Borzou Daragahi in the Los Angeles Times which is so partial, so distorting, so wrong that it verges on sabotage of the demands, aspirations, and ideas of the Green movement.

Daragahi, who has been one of the best journalists writing for a US newspaper on Iran, initially offers a straightforward "Iran Students Carry on Protests", depicting university demonstrations over the last week. In the sub-headline, however, there is an ominous sign of the real point of the article: "In the West, some analysts have begun to discount the opposition movement's power."

And so the piece dissolves into unsupported soundbites. Mark Fowler, "a former CIA analyst who now heads Persia House, a service run by the Booz Allen Hamilton consulting firm in Washington", declares:

Our view is that the regime has largely neutralized the opposition. It seems to us that they have pretty much decapitated the opposition in terms of leadership. I don't think the government is particularly worried about it.

And then, just to put the boot in if anyone was holding on to faith in the Green movement, Fowler pronouces, "Mousavi is not a liberal per se. When he was prime minister, he would have made the conservatives and the hard-liners proud." Like Jackson Diehl yesterday, Daragahi then invokes last month's visit to the Washington Institute of Near East Policy by Ataollah Mohajerani, "a confidant of opposition figure Mehdi Karroubi [who] refused to distance himself from Ahmadinejad's nuclear policies", as a high-profile representative of the internal opposition.

Daragahi twists the knife further by citing the articles of former US officials Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett, calling on the Obama administration "to abide by the results of Iran's election and to engage with Tehran's current leadership". What Daragahi does not mention is that the Leveretts' initial proclamation of the legitimacy of the Ahmadinejad victory, offered within days of 12 June in an article with the University of Tehran's Seyed Mohammad Marandi, has been challenged by a wide range of analysts, let alone by the Green movement.

It should be noted that Daragahi also quotes the opinion of Gary Sick, another former US official, that some U.S. foreign policy hawks "regard any 'reform' movement in Iran as a distraction from further sanctions and the outright U.S.-Iran hostility that they favor as a way of clarifying and simplifying U.S. policy choices in the region". But, given that Daragahi has already portrayed Fowler and the Leveretts as neutral, objective experts rather than "hawks" --- and along the way questioned the credentials and strength of the internal call for reform and justice --- Sick's comment is no more than a whistle in the anti-Green wind.

Of course, Mark Fowler and the Leveretts should be free to express their opinions. But it would be useful if those opinions were supported, in a one-sided article, by some semblance of evidence. And it might have occurred to Daragahi to consult an expert source inside Iran --- despite the regime's determined efforts to shut down any notion of a live opposition, those analyses come out day after day --- or an analyst whose primary contacts are not with officials within the Iranian Government or economic elite.

At the end of the day, however, this considered approach is not Daragahi's because --- like Jackson Diehl --- his primary attention is not on the desires, concerns, hopes within the Islamic Republic: "Iran's nuclear program remains a top Washington priority. And few U.S. officials expect the opposition to cause any shift by the Iranian government on nuclear policy in the next year, a critical period in which many fear Tehran could move dramatically closer to gaining the capacity to build an atomic bomb."

Which is fine. It's not my concern, however, and I dare say that it is not the primary thought for those who are on the frontline, rather than filing from a bureau in Beirut (or writing in a living room in Birmingham, England). So it would be appreciated if Daragahi simply said, "Nukes First, Nukes First", rather than trashing the opposition movement to fulfil that agenda.

However, let me close with the positive rather than the negative. Having provoked disbelief and then anger, Daragahi ultimately --- and unwittingly --- gives hope and raises a smile. For there, four paragraphs from the end of his piece, is the line:

"The Iranian government itself has yet to write off the protest movement."

Quite right, because the Iranian government might have better information than a Mark Fowler and his consultancy or the Leveretts and their quest for engagement. And here, from another group with pretty good information, is the sentence that could be added:

"The protest movement has yet to write itself off."

It is less than 24 hours to 13 Aban.