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Friday
Sep112009

The Latest from Iran (11 September): Prayers and Politics

Iran: The Complete Translation of the Supreme Leader’s Friday Prayer Address
Iran: Josh Shahryar's Snap Analysis of the Supreme Leader's Speech
Iran: Questions on Prayer Day

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KHAMENEI2200 GMT: We have received further information on both the Rah-e-Sabz and New York Times stories on the Khamenei order for the arrest of Mehdi Karroubi and on the Rafsanjani "retreat" because of military pressure.

The information indicates that one of Hashemi Rafsanjani's colleagues has confirmed the Karroubi arrest story to one of the best reporters covering Iran. We are therefore taking the story very seriously.

More to come in a special analysis on Saturday.

2120 GMT: An EA correspondent picks up the following from the Rah-e-Sabz story on Rafsanjani's apparent retreat: "He went as far as to say that Karroubi's arrest warrant should not have been issued by Khamenei himself and that the presence of the IRGC [Revolutionary Guard] in the political sphere will make matters 'complicated'. Khamenei apparently reacted with a long silence to this remark."

2100 GMT: Rumour of the Day. Rah-e-Sabz reports that an "informed source" claims that the Supreme Leader has issued an order for the arrest of Mehdi Karroubi. Almost as significant is the claim, from the same report, that Hashemi Rafsanjani has told members of the Center for Strategic Research of the Expediency Council, about a meeting between himself and Ayatollah Khamenei: “I will back away from everything, they are not granting me permission to speak at the Friday prayers anymore.”

The New York Times, which picked up the story, has added from "a person close to Mr. Rafsanjani" that "the order was issued at least two weeks ago".

1945 GMT: Journalist Mohammad Hasan Fallahizadeh, who had been on hunger strike in Evin Prison, was released on Wednesday on medical grounds.

1520 GMT: The Karroubi Response. A "source close to Mehdi Karoubi" has told Rooz Online's English-language website:
Mr. Karoubi was taken back over the closure of the committee because he believed that the two meetings that he had with judiciary officials on the subject were very constructive.If the committee continues its work with Mr. Karoubi, then many issues will come to light. New issues are surfacing with every passing day. They wish to cut Mr. Karoubi from the people.

That is a straightforward reaction, but the emerging question for us is whether Karroubi comes to the forefront to lead the protests on Qods Day next Friday. The source's comments were focused on the narrower question of the abuse investigation: "Mr. Karoubi shall continue his pursue of the cases of the victims of the post election atrocities....The issue is very clear: Crimes have taken place and the Islamic system is responsible to investigate them."

1515 GMT: More of the Hard Line. The Supreme Leader's address was not the only tough talk on Friday. The leader of prayers in Qom has wondered why Mir Hossein Mousavi has not been arrested and called for the "voice" of the Green movement to be "strangled" on Qods Day.

1500 GMT: Back after an afternoon break. Radio Farda has posted a summary of the Karroubi letter to head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani (English text in separate entry), emphasising Karroubi's declaration that the Revolutionary Guard has hidden documentation of rapes of detainees.

1120 GMT: Agence France Presse's take on the speech: Confrontation. They use this extract, "Those who draw swords against the regime will be confronted. Differences of views should not lead to conflicts....The policy of the regime is to work with the majority. But if opposition groups have ideas that are against the nation's security and the principles of the regime, they will be confronted."

1115 GMT: Irony of the Day (so far). I'm just checking in after a trip to Manchester --- thanks to Mike Dunn and Chris Emery for covering the Supreme Leader's speech.

Reading the updates, 0855 GMT stands out: "Supreme Leader recalls the memory of a modern Shia icon: Ayatollah Taleghani, a contemporary of Ayatollah Khomenei who died shortly after the Revolution."

Hmm, would that be the same Ayatollah Taleghani whose memorial service was initially blocked, for the first time in 30 years, by the regime earlier this week?

0935 GMT: And it's over. The Supreme Leader ends a hardline, but to some observers nervous, performance with a final warning against any Quds Day demonstrations. A full analysis will follow once we have collected our thoughts..

0930 GMT: Great Britain singled out for more than 200 years of experience of evil in Iran.

0925 GMT: Khamenei recalls another momentous in Iran's modern history. He is now recalling Iran's victory over the US in the 1998 soccer World Cup!  "Iran's goal is a goal for us"!

0920 GMT: State TV showing crowds outside Friday Prayers singing 'Death to England'.

0910 GMT: VIPs present - Larijani Ali and Sadegh Larijani, Rahim Safavi, Hassan Rowhani, Int. Minister Heydar Moslehi. President Ahmadinejad seated next to Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, former judiciary chief.

0906 GMT: Khamenei justifies the crack down..."All States, even European ones, react with force to violent threats. We accept criticism, but not threats."

0900 GMT: A nod to tolerance clearly setting up an attack on dissent. "Differences in opinion are valid and accepted within the framework of the system. The system will not react against anyone in this case; people who do not want to wreck the peace of the regime, and of society will not be dealt with."

0857 GMT: "There have been divisions throughout the revolution", some costly,. others not for the revolution, Khomeini dealt with them at all levels, people who were revolutionaries but that we could no longer work with." The Supreme Leader appears to be trying to reassert his leadership of the Revolution's legacy and the current political system.

0855 GMT: Supreme Leader starts the second sermon by recalling the memory of a modern Shia icon: Ayatollah Taleghani, a contemporary of Ayatollah Khomenei who died shortly after the Revolution.

0850 GMT: Khamenei has the whole crowd weeping:  Suspicions that Ali Larijani's tears are less than convincing. Crowd is big, although they are yet to show the sorrounding streets.

0845 GMT: The SL is winding up the first sermon, the Quranic one, but building up to a possibly confronational second sermon: "Imam Ali said "after tollerance, Ali drew the sword"

0840 GMT: 'What would the Imam Ali do?' The Supreme Leader is drawing heavily on themese of 'spirituality' with particular emphasis on Imam's Ali's example.

0830 GMT: The Speech begins and the Supreme Leader warns of the "dangers" of the seperation of religion from politics. Politics becomes "immoral" in that case, just like in the "secular western".

0430 GMT: We've prepared for today's big events, the Supreme Leader's address at Friday prayers in Tehran, with a quick preview of the issues at play both for the opposition and for the regime. And no doubt we'll be occupied today with covering and then deciphering the speech.

This should not, however, ignore another development. The Green movement has not folded in the face of the toughest strikes on its leadership since the days after the 12 June election. Mir Hossein Mousavi has responded, with his criticism of the Government and his upholding of the "Green Path of Hopse"; the impact of this, given the restrictions on Mousavi's communications, remains to be seen.

Perhaps even more important, however, the Mehdi Karroubi network has bounced back. The Etemade Melli party website (including Saham News) has revived, against the expectations of many. Today Karroubi publishes his letter to the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, on the investigation of the abuse of detainees. Karroubi's line is clear: the Ahmadinejad Government's raids and arrests this week were meant to stop this process, but this must not happen.

Which, of course, raises a vital question: after his recent reference to those "outside the law", does Larijani agree?
Thursday
Sep102009

The Latest from Iran (10 September): Who Fits Where?

NEW Iran Analysis: Retrenching Before Friday’s Prayers
EA Exclusive: Iran and Venezuela are Going to Kill Us All
The Latest from Iran (9 September): The Stakes Are Raised


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IRAN GREEN1955 GMT: The Youth and Student Section of Mehdi Karroubi's reformist Etemade Melli party have condemned the acts of the judiciary and security forces with the arrest of Mousavi’s and Karoubi’s advisors. The section declared that these actions in the run-up to Qods Day (18 Sept.) not only will fail to cause fear in people but will encourage them to attend the epic demonstration on that day.

1815 GMT: There is a bit of a buzz about a letter from the noted political philosopher Abdolkarim Soroush to the Supreme Leader, proclaiming that Iranians will celebrate the "decline of religious despotism".

1740 GMT: The reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front has expressed support for Mir Hossein Mousavi’s “Green Path of Hope” as a manifesto for the liberation of Iranians from the "defective cycle of tyranny".

1735 GMT: Still don't believe there is a foreign-directed effort at "velvet revolution" in Iran? Well here, courtesy of Raja News, is the super-duper, multi-colour chart (with arrows) to prove it.

1730 GMT: Norooz, which was down earlier today because of an "Internal Server Error", is back online.

1440 GMT: An EA correspondent clarifies our 1415 GMT entry on newssites linked to Mehdi Karroubi: "Saham News is back to posting new items, while tagheer.ir is a site that was set up some 7-8 months ago during Khatami's President candidacy."

1425 GMT: Mohammad Reza Bahonar, the Deputy Speaker of Parliament, has said that if Mehdi Karroubi cannot establish his claims of detainee abuse, he should be tried on criminal charges. The source is significant because Bahonar had been a vocal foe of the President during the debate over the Cabinet.

1415 GMT: There are reports that staff of Mehdi Karroubi have set up an alternative website to replace the suspended Saham News/Etemade Melli party site. The alternative, tagheer.ir, has similar content and approach to that of Saham News.

At the same time, it appears that the Norooz site, a key source for recent news is down because of "Internal Server Error". Before it went down, the site was disputing the Government's denial of its list of 72 people killed in post-election conflict and reporting that the memorial for the late Ayatollah Taleghani, which the Government had tried to block, had been held at the family home.

1345 GMT: Amnesty International says it has reports that Caspian Makan, the fiancé of Neda Agha Soltan, who was shot and killed by Basiji militia on 20 June, has been released from detention.

1330 GMT: Report that Zohreh Ashtiani, a reporter with Saham News, the Etemade Melli party's website, was arrested and her house searched. A later report says she was released after 12 hours of questioning.

0940 GMT: Just back from an interview with BBC World Service Radio on President Obama's speech on health care (the audio is now up for the next 24 hours). Not much breaking in Iran.

And, confirming our  0800 GMT post, it appears that Iran, apart from The Bomb, will stay off the agenda for most international media. A CNN anchor has just posted their editorial call: "Iraq blast/Afghanistan/India stampede/Mex hijacking/Turkey flood/Taiwan Cabinet/world cup". Yep, the US match with Trinidad & Tobago beats out any consideration of the Government crackdown. (No, the CNN website never did mention the arrest of key Mousavi and Karroubi advisors like Alireza Beheshti.)

0815 GMT: Josh Shahryar has posted "The Green Brief" for Wednesday, including the essential correction that he gave us (0655 GMT) on yesterday's statement about those breaking the law by the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani.

0800 GMT: The New York Times, which had been doing quite well of late with Iran coverage, decides to indulge in peripheral hysteria this morning. Michael Slackman, Nazila Fathi, and Robert Worth, each of whom has some knowledge of Iran as something more than Islam and bombs, give way for David Sanger, who knows what was told to him by the most recent "Western diplomat" or Administration official. So today, it's another recycling of the superficial and misleading claim, "U.S. Says Iran Has Ability to Expedite a Nuclear Bomb".

(Superficial because "ability to expedite a nuclear bomb" is vaguery bordering on linguistic nonsense. Misleading even in the caveats in the article: "a rapid, if risky, sprint for a nuclear weapon" is shorthand for Iran either does not yet have or has not pursued the capability to convert low-yield uranium into highly-enriched uranium in practice, rather than theory. Thus, "the new intelligence information collected by the Obama administration finds no convincing evidence that design work has resumed."

All swept away because someone told Sanger something on his way to the office to file a story: "In interviews over the past two months, intelligence and military officials, and members of the Obama administration, have said they are convinced that Iran has made significant progress on uranium enrichment, especially over the past year.")

Perhaps Sanger might write, for his next not-exactly-an-exclusive, "Ohmygod, Iran and Venezuela are Going to Kill Us All!"

0655 GMT: With a slow morning for breaking news (which is tempting fate, since we said the same thing yesterday and then faced a torrent of afternoon development), we have posted an analysis, "Retrenching before Friday Prayers". And we've taken time to give a breaking story, featured in The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post, the respect it deserves: "EA Exclusive: Iran and Venezuela are Going to Kill Us All".

There is, however, one significant development or, rather, a  correction of a development. We updated yesterday on the interview of the head of Iran's judiciary, "Has Larijani Jumped Behind Ahmadinejad?", because we read his condemnation of those "outside the law" as  a reference to the opposition. Indeed we posted in our last update, The New York Times, drawing from Fars News Agency, was highlighting Larijani's phrase “great costs to the Islamic system”.

Josh Shahryar has had a close look, however, at the interview as it appeared on Radio Zamaneh. Read on its own, it is unclear who is being targeted by this passage:
Some had tried to call the elections fraudulent and attempted to stray outside "the circle of legality". [Larijani] said that law-breaking had become rampant and it had been observed in the aftermath of the elections how such actions had inflicted a great cost on the Islamic regime. He said that these violators shouldn't think that they're not being watched and the Judiciary should pursue the perpetrators of any such law-breaking legally.

However, the ambiguity evaporates when the previous paragraph is added: "Judiciary Chief Sadegh Larijani today said that what had happened in the detention centers had inflicted a huge blow on the standing of the regime. He said that the Judiciary would pursue these violations carefully and vigorously."
Wednesday
Sep092009

The Latest from Iran (9 September): The Stakes Are Raised

NOW POSTED Iran Analysis: Retrenching Before Friday's Prayers
Iran: Mousavi Statement on Arrests of Top Opposition Advisors
Iran: Ahmadinejad’s “All-In” Move?
Iran Urgent Analysis: Is This the Defining Showdown?
The Latest from Iran (8 September): Picking A Fight?
Iran: Ahmadinejad Chooses Confrontation Over Compromise and Governing

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IRAN GREEN

2220 GMT: Did Sadegh Larijani Just Jump Behind the President (Continued)? Earlier today (1125 GMT) we noted that the head of judiciary seemed to be aiming at those who went "beyond the law" because of the "false claim" of electoral fraud. Another snippet of the interview is even more dramatic, as Larijani denounces those who have brought “great costs to the Islamic system" with their opposition.

2020 GMT: More on Ayatollahs Take a Stand? (1540 GMT) Some interesting developments from the Sunday meeting of senior clerics in Qom that we have been following. Ayatollah Golpaygani wrote a letter criticising the Ahmadinejad Cabinet; the Supreme Leader replied sharply, effectively prohibiting the Ayatollah from "interfering" in Government issues. Meanwhile, the Qom meeting has asked Grand Ayatollah Sistani, based in Najaf in Iraq, to travel to Iran for discussions and Grand Ayatollah Nouri-Hamedani has expressed regret for congratulating Ahmadinejad on his election victory.

2010 GMT: Report that Sadegh Noroozi, head of political council of the Mojahedin-Enghelab party, has been released.

1850 GMT: Bemoans?! Our friends at Press TV show their respect for the Mousavi statement: "Mousavi bemoans arrest of top aides, urges calm".

1840 GMT: Remember our emerging assessment that the biggest challenge for President Ahmadinejad may be governing Iran, especially handling the economy, rather than confronting the opposition? This from Press TV: "The value of Iran's oil products exports has plunged by 51 percentage points in the first half of the current Iranian year due to the global economic downturn."

1815 GMT: A Correction. We reported earlier (0920 GMT) that Emadeddine Baghi, head of the Association for the Defense of Prisoners, was arrested yesterday. In fact, there has been no confirmation of Baghi's arrest although the Association's offices were shut down.

1810 GMT: Quick! Look Over There! I suspect international media will be absorbed by this story, rather than any international developments in Iran, until the Supreme Leader's speech on Friday. From Press TV: "Amid international calls on Iran to engage the West over its nuclear program, the country presents the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany with its latest package of proposals to tackle global issues."

1800 GMT: CNNFail/TwitterSuccess. I know, I risk being repetitive but this exchange, over the arrest of Alireza Beheshti, has to be noted to be believed:

(1330 GMT) verypissedoff: Why are CNN & ABC silent? #iranelection Reuters: Ally of Iran's Mousavi detained
[The Reuters story was posted at 1251 GMT. Enduring America ran it as an urgent update, following Twitter to the Mowj-e-Sabz website, at 1945 GMT on Wednesday.]

(1655 GMT) rosemaryCNN Reuters: Ally of Iran's Mousavi detained, website says

Despite the fact that Rosemary Church, one of CNN's anchors, finally acknowledged the story almost 24 hours after it happened, CNN's website still has no reference to the far-from-minor development.

This is in no way a slapdown of Rosemary Church, who does good work and has used Twitter (unlike others in the media) to interact with others rather than for self-promotion of her and her network. However, based on the last 72 hours, let alone the last three months, I will take my stand against anyone who says Twitter is merely a diversion which should be set aside in the work of "real" journalists.

1540 GMT: Ayatollahs Taking a Stand? We reported on Monday about a meeting in Qom of several Grand Ayatollahs and senior clerics including, Ayatollahs Golpaygani, Makarem-Shirazi, Bayat-Zanjani, Montazeri, and Mousavi-Ardebili, on “practical steps against the coup government”. Now the Green movement's website, Mowj-e-Sabz, is reporting that the clerics are pressing their challenge against an "illegitimate" government, including its selection of female ministers, despite an attempt by the Supreme Leader through Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi to check the opposition.

1420 GMT: We have posted a translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement on the arrest of Mousavi and Karroubi advisors in a separate entry.

1400 GMT: Another Arrest. In addition to the detentions on Tuesday of Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti, Karroubi advisor Morteza Alviri, Etemade Melli website editor Mohammad Davari, security forces arrested Mohammad Ozlati-Moqaddam, a former IRGC commander and head of the veteran’s faction of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s campaign, at his home.

Ozlati-Moqaddam, who formerly served in the IRGC political bureau alongside Hossein Shariatmadari and Hossein Safar-Harandi, was arrested on Tuesday.

1330 GMT: A slow period has been broken by the latest statement from Mir Hossein Mousavi. Condemning the arrests of Alireza Beheshti, his top advisor, and Mortreza Alviri, Mehdi Karroubi’s top advisor, he warns people that “more difficult” days are on the way and advising them to be calm and remain careful and alert. At the same time, Mousavi is asking them to not be intimidated by "the coup government", as the regime's "pathetic acts" are doomed to fail like their previous efforts.

1140 GMT: Hours before he was arrested yesterday, Mehdi Karroubi's aide Morteza Alviri, who was also a member of the Karroubi-Mousavi committees investigating detentions, gave an interview to Rooz Online (translation by HomyLafayette):

The regime's actions have pushed political activity out of parties and into homes and within the population....Silence is not acquiescence. There is a bomb within the hearts of the people, and it can explode at any time....I still believe that fraud took place in the election. The country is in a state of martial law.

1125 GMT: Did Sadegh Larijani Just Jump Behind the President? The head of Iran's judiciary has said that the "false claim" of election fraud led some people to go "beyond the law", adding, "The life of our social system is dependent on law enforcement."

Larijani was vague beyond this, for example, on detentions and trials, but I wonder if the statement could be read as implicit acceptance of the Ahmadinejad line.

1040 GMT: It's All about Us (outside Iran). The perils of an attention span which is all about what Iran means for "us" rather than what is happening inside Iran is all too clear in Simon Tisdall's blunt statement today in The Guardian of London: "If anyone still wonders what happened to the Iranian revolution of 2009, the answer is: the hardliners won."

Even a quick glance at EA's analyses, and those of other sites like Anonymous Iran and Keeping the Change, complicates Tisdall's assertions. Who exactly are his "hardliners"? Ahmadinejad? The Revolutionary Guard? The Supreme Leader? All of the above? And has the opposition just evaporated in the face of measures such as yesterday's raids?

These are trifles, however, because Tisdall is not really concerned with anything beyond a superficial reference to the internal situation. His focus is "the difficulties inherent in dealing with Tehran". Nuclear programme. Sanctions. "Soft power". All of which leads him into the cul-de-sac:
One is to admit the Israelis may be right in arguing that military action is the only sure way to hinder or stop Iran's nuclear advances. The other is to do nothing – and hope that Iran's repeated assurances that it does not seek the atom bomb are true.

As bleak as the picture may be in Iran after the last 48 hours, it's far better than this simplifying of "our" options by reducing the Iranian people to bystanders and pawns.

0920 GMT: A Far-from-Incidental Note. The Mousavi-led Committee for the Tracking of Prisoners and Mehdi Karroubi's operations were not the only organisations targeted in the last 48 hours. Emadeddine Baghi, head of the Association for the Defense of Prisoners, was also arrested yesterday. Baghi's office was searched and documents and equipment were taken by security forces.

0825 GMT: MediaWatch. Both New York Times and Washington Post have articles on yesterday's raid of Karroubi offices, although they only briefly mention the later arrest of Alireza Beheshti. The Los Angeles Times, normally in the lead of US-based coverage, get tangled up: anxious to feature their journalistic coup of an interview with Mehdi Karroubi, they reduce news of the raids and arrests of his staff to an insert paragraph.

CNN, continuing its poor coverage even as its correspondents pile onto Twitter to promote themselves, do not notice the Beheshti arrest. Al Jazeera also misses the Beheshti news, however, and the BBC, however, is even worse: distracted by Iran's promotional claim that it is submitting proposals on its nuclear programme today, they see nothing at all inside Iran.

0820 GMT: It appears that, with its offices raided and its editor-in-chief arrested, the Etemade Melli website (which includes Saham News) is suspended. There have been no new posts since 3:25 p.m. local time yesterday.

0800 GMT: The Mousavi response to the raid on their office and later arrest of chief advisor Alireza Beheshti? This was posted three hours ago on Facebook: "Coup gov.! We R the Media & wont let our leaders be taken hostage silently.Go Green & Bring #iranelection back on top:World will be watching /"

0750 GMT: Almost lost in yesterday's chaos was the statement of the commander of the Navy of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, Rear Admiral Morteza Saffari, pressing the foreign-led "soft war" pretext: “Iran's great territory, population, military might, and unique geographical location in the Middle East have turned it into a strong power, and political experts in Western countries know that they cannot overwhelm Iran by launching a military attack or hard war."

Saffari claimed that a “media war” had stirred up “civil disobedience”, asserting, “The US strategy to confront the Islamic Republic of Iran is based on soft measures," even as it continues threats to launch a military attack.

The rhetoric is far from new, of course. What is significant is how the IRGC is pushing it less than a week after the Supreme Leader denied that foreign powers were able to pursue their "soft war" because of the strength of the Iranian system.

0730 GMT: It looks like folks in Iran are picking up the pieces from yesterday's dramatic events, so we've spent the time on a detailed analysis, "Ahmadinejad's 'All-In' Move", considering the significance of the raids and arrests. Our easier conclusion is that this is an attempt to break the Green movement and back down Hashemi Rafsanjani. The tricker reading is whether the President and Revolutionary Guard have done this as an assertion of authority against the Supreme Leader. We'll be debating this throughout the day (and beyond) and welcome your comments and ideas.

Josh Shahryar is also working on an analysis for a high-profile publication; we'll keep you posted on when it appears. Meanwhile, his latest "Green Brief" summarising Tuesday's events is out.
Monday
Sep072009

The Latest from Iran (7 September): Countdown to 18 September Begins

NEW Iran Urgent: Mousavi HQ Raided by Security Forces
Iran: Green Wave Resurgent?
Iran’s Victims: The 72 People Killed in Post-Election Conflict
Iran: Resistance and Music – New Shajarian Song “Language of Fire”
The Latest from Iran (6 September): The Reformists Speak

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IRAN GREEN

2030 GMT: No Criticism Here. Press TV's website writes out the admonition of the Supreme Leader to President Ahmadinejad and the Cabinet to take heed of "benevolent criticism" (see 1830 GMT). Instead the report emphasizes Ayatollah Khamenei's declaration about the legitimacy established by the election, “The nation and the Islamic Revolution have proven their republican nature. If officials, elites and political experts understand this fact, many of the country's problems will be resolved."

1930 GMT: Is the Regime Targeting Leaders' Children? That's the question asked by one of our readers, who noticed the arrest of Atefeh Emam, the 18-year old daughter of Mir Hossein Mousavi's Chief of Staff, Javad Emam, who is still detained himself. She was reportedly released earlier today, after 24 hours of continuous interrogation, near a Tehran cemetery.

Earlier in the crisis, the regime arrested several members of the family of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, and pressure has been placed this week on the son of Mehdi Karroubi.

1830 GMT: Khamenei Manoeuvres. In a line which is not that far from the "conservative" Society of Militant Clergy criticism of the President, the Supreme Leader has advised Ahmadinejad and his Cabinet: "There is internal criticism backed by foreign media with the aim of sabotage but there is also benevolent criticism which may not come from supporters of the government but they contain good comments."

1710 GMT: Clerics Warn Ahmadinejad. The reformist Association of Teachers and Researchers of Qom have issued a statement warning that the regime cannot be maintained with military force, arrests, and brutality.

More intriguing, however, may be a finger-wagging at the President from the "conservative" Society of Militant Clergy, their first intervention in the post-election crisis:
We ask the president and the government to seriously try to solve people’s problems and the country’s economic and social issues, and avoid talking about unnecessary and provocative issues. The comments made and the disrespect committed in the debates, speeches and rallies before and after the election caused divergence.

The Society criticised the opposition for pursuing demands "outside law", but it also called for "consoling" those harmed in the unrest.

Possibly Relevant Fact: One of the members of the Society is former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.

1645 GMT: A Norooz News article, featured on Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook page, says that:
"Security Forces attacked the Staff office of Mir Hossein Mousavi which was resposible for following the issues of the detainees, without any legal premisson. All documentations were confiscated and taken out to... an unknown destination. As Staff members asked for receipt, security forces answered that no documents will be given back, thus there will be no receipt !!"

(Thanks to Mike Dunn for covering, as I was stuck in traffic when this came through. We have posted as a separate entry, cleaning up some of the text and adding a brief analysis.)

1430 GMT: We've been watching since reports came in yesterday of a meeting in Qom between Grand Ayatollahs Golpaygani and Makarem-Shirazi. Now the website of the Green movement, Mowj-e-Sabz, is reporting that there were several Grand Ayatollahs and senior clerics, including Bayat-Zanjani, Montazeri, and Mousavi-Ardebili, in the discussion of "practical steps against the coup government", after receving letters from political and social activists.

1340 GMT: Fars News reports that Press TV will soon air a "roundtable" of detainees Saeed Hajjarian, Mohammad Atrianfar, and Saeed Shariati on the causes of their "change of attitude and intellectual development".

1130 GMT: We're here but it is a very slow day, with little breaking on the political front.

There is one story that catches the eye. According to Tehran Bureau, via a source, the revelations of the abuses of detainees in Kahrizak Prison cames from a photographer for the Supreme Leader.

The well-known documentary maker and photojournalist, who recorded the eight-year Iraq-Iran war and became a ‘Sacred Defense’ photographer, was arrested during the post-election unrest and taken to Kahrizak where he was abused and tortured. After his release, he informed Ayatollah Khamenei about jail rapes and prisoner abuse. When the Supreme Leader expressed disbelief, the man revealed that he was one of the victims: "What they did was inhumane and in violation of all human rights… When they did those things to me, in my eyes it was you who was doing them."

Soon after this, Khamenei ordered the closure of the notorious detention center.

(The photojournalist was one of the cameramen who made Mir Hossein Mousavi’s campaign films, although it is unclear if they played any part in his arrest. He has also worked on a documentary about Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.)

0850 GMT: If the BBC was paying attention, rather than trotting along with the notion of Iran's Nuclear Programme Above All Else (see 0820 GMT), it might have noticed these comments from President Ahmadinejad in his press conference, directed at the opposition movement:
The election and post-election events was victory of Iranian nation's morality against immoralities. The other victory of Iranian nation was success in removing contamination from Revolution.

0840 GMT: Rafsanjani Speaks. A small amendment to the end of today's analysis, "The large presence of Hashemi Rafsanjani has disappeared." The former President said, at a ceremony to commemorate Ayatollah Ali Qoddousi, Iran's prosecutor general who was killed by Mujahedin-e-Khalq Organization (MKO) in 1981:
It is a vital need of the Islamic Republic and establishment to find a way to strengthen national unity and establish peace in the country. In the recent events, the sides should act in a way which will guarantee national unity.

Small amendment, indeed, as the statement just repeats Rafsanjani's cautious, hold-the-line comments that we evaluated in mid-August.

0820 GMT: MediaWatch. The New York Times does another good job this morning, picking up on the Khatami statement and Mousavi letter (though missing Karroubi's moves) that we've highlighted all weekend and in today's analysis. The Washington Post also mention Khatami and Mousavi but hide the impact by tucking them away under a headline on an older story, "Iran Canceling Major Ramadan Events in Wake of Election Protests".

CNN are nowhere to be found, preferring to go with "Chavez Pledges Closer Ties with Iran". Al Jazeera also gets distracted by the Venezuela dimension. Even worse at the BBC, which falls for the Iranian President's "Look Over There!" trick, "Tehran 'ready for global talks'".

0800 GMT: We heard about this story all day yesterday and are keeping a close eye on it (any information would be welcomed):
A group of Revolutionary Guards have resigned from the force according to Hosein Hashemian, an Iranian lawmaker. Mr. Hashemian told Parleman News Website that the unacceptable interference of the Revolutionary Guards in political matters has caused a rift in the force.

The story of resignations, including those of unit commanders, has been about since the start of the crisis, and more than 30 Islamic Revolution Guard Corps members have been arrested.

However, at this point without further confirmation, I am treating this as a bit of "psychological warfare" from the opposition to unsettle the Government. In particular, it is part of the fightback against the recent statements of the Revolutionary Guard's chief commander, General Mohammad Ali Jafari (see our separate analysis today): Hashemian called for Jafari to be detained for his claim that former President Khatami and other reformists were trying to "unseat" the regime.

0655 GMT: We've spent the morning on two special pieces. First and foremost, Josh Shahryar of Anonymous Iran's "The Green Brief" has spent hours translating into English, from the list provided by the Iranian website Noroozthe names and descriptions of 72 people killed in post-election violence. Given that regime figures like high-ranking member of Parliament Alaeddin Boroujerdi have been trying to deny there is any evidence for the deaths, we think this is a vital document of record.

The second piece is an analysis, after a weekend of opposition statements, of the current political situation and the question of whether the Green Wave is moving towards a high-profile display of resistance on Qods Day, 18 September.
Sunday
Sep062009

The Latest from Iran (6 September): The Reformists Speak

Iran Analysis: How Important is the Mousavi Statement?
Text: Mousavi Statement to “Green Path of Hope” (5 September)
Middle East/Iran Inside Line: Israel Presses Ahead with Settlements, Tehran Draws Line on Nuke Talks
The Latest from Iran (5 September): A Quiet Phase

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TEHRAN UNI2000 GMT: Psychological Warfare. Unsurprisingly, the Fars News story that Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali is the subject of an arrest warrant, due to a financial dispute with the mobile phone company Irancell, appears to be a bit of fiction to shake up the reformist movement.

The specific claim is that Ali Karroubi is connected with Persian Telecom, which failed to carry out advertising obligations for Irancell. However, Irancell has told Saham News, connected with Karroubi party's Etemade Melli:
Mr. Ali Karroubi does not hold any shares in Persian Telecom....The two companies have a business association in the form of purchasing Irancell products and selling them and therefore no advertisement is done on behalf of Irancell by Persian Telecom. (Translation from Tehran Bureau)

1925 GMT: The Reformist Fightback. A series of reformist members of Parliament and clerics have been striking back at the comments of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps commander, General Ali Mohammad Jafari (see 1730 GMT), all day. The latest is Hojatoleslam Alikhani, a cleric and MP, who has emphasised that the military should not enter political issues.

1920 GMT: The Battle for the Universities (Cont.). Iranian newspapers and the Islamic Republic News Agency report, “The Institute for Humanities and Cultural Studies [has been] tasked by the Supreme Cultural Revolution Council to revise the human sciences curriculum."

The head of the Institute declared, “In our country a large part of the syllabus… is not in line with our Iranian-Islamic culture. This calls for a revision." The syllabus will be revised
“based on the supreme leader’s recommendations.” (Agence France Press has an English summary.)

1730 GMT: Pursuing the Revolutionary Guard. Following up our last update yesterday, The Assembly of Combatant Clerics had responded to the claims of Revolutionary Guard Commander General Mohammad Ali Jafari, alleging that former President Khatami and other prominent reformists have tried to "unseat" the Supreme Leader and Government, by filing a formal complaint against Jafari and Keyhan newspaper for publishing lies and insulting several members of the Assembly.

1725 GMT: Responding to claims by Deputy Head of Judiciary, Ebrahim Raeesi, that he had not presented any evidence of detainee abuse in his meeting with the three-member panel investigating the claims, Mehdi Karroubi has described three documents that he presented.

1715 GMT: Hey, Look Over There! According to Press TV, the Supreme Leader gave visiting Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez a quick international lesson on Sunday: "The US had far greater failures in the Islamic Republic of Iran than in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon and Palestine. A power has been formed in this region which was once regarded by the US as its courtyard."

Surprisingly, the article offered no reference by Ayatollah Khamenei made to Iran's internal situation.

1440 GMT: Regime Goes After Karroubi. Fars News reports that an arrest warrant has been issued for Mehdi Karroubi's son, Ali. The cause of the action is a financial dispute involving one of Iran's largest mobile phone companies, Irancell, for whom Karroubi's company was supposed to sell phone cards. The amount involved is almost $2.5 million.

Nice touch, by the way, for Fars to use this as the illustration for the story:
KARROUBI ARREST

1305 GMT: Josh Shahryar's "Green Brief" summarising the events of Saturday is now out.

1255 GMT: As the regime pushes its campaign for a "proper" academic sector (see 0740 GMT), former President Khatami held his own discussion with the Islamic Association of University Teachers. He pointedly challenged both the Supreme Leader's call on academics to be the commanders in a war against "Western" soft power and last Friday's prayer address in Tehran for a "non-Western" approach to humanities. Khatami expressed his opposition to those who in the name of fighting western liberalism, were forcing people to follow their path by employing fascism and totalitarianism ideologie and warned the authorities to start rebuilding public trust before all the opportunities are wasted."

1015 GMT: Business as Usual. Deputy head of judiciary Ebrahim Raeesi, who seems to be the regime's "hold-the-line" guy on detentions and prosecutions, declared Saturday that the replacement of Saeed Mortazavi as Tehran prosecutor by Abbas Jafari Dolatabadi will make no difference to the current approach: “The trials will continue and we will do our best so that the rule of law is upheld and justice prevails."

1010 GMT: Methinks He Doth Protest Too Much. Presidential spokesman Aliakbar Javenfekr is a bit upset at the claim, highlighted by Deputy Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Reza Bohanar (see Friday's updates), that up to six of the Ministerial nominees only got approval after the Supreme Leader's intervention of a letter to Parliament: "This was not an order at all but a consultative and friendly view which compelled the lawmakers to work more tolerantly with the government." Bahonar was "insulting the lawmakers who through their independent, conscious, and intelligent vote helped establish a powerful, efficient government".

0850 GMT: The three-member judiciary panel investigating allegations of detainee abuse has said that Mehdi Karroubi has formally submitted the names of four detainees who will appear before the panel if invited.

0810 GMT: We've split off our opening update on the reformist fightback as a separate entry, "How Important is the Mousavi Statement?"

0800 GMT: No, No, It Ain't So. The head of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, is insisting that the claims of 72 deaths in post-election violence are "questionable, given the fact that no detail on the identity of the victims has been present".

We linked Friday to the Farsi-language site Norooz, which has collected the names and descriptions of the dead, but we're hoping to help Mr Boroujerdi later today with an English translation of the list.

0740 GMT: In recent days, we've been updating on the regime's statements linking academia and the "proper" post-election path in Iran, including the Supreme Leader's address to heads of universities and research centres as "commanders" of the fight against foreign "soft power" and the statement in last Friday's prayers in Tehran warning against "Western-style" instruction in humanities.

Today The New York Times has an excellent article by Robert Worth today, "Iran’s Universities Punish Students Who Disputed Vote". Drawing from Iranian website, it not only notes the arrests and summoning for questioning of politically active students but also writes that "a presidential panel has begun an investigation of the humanities curriculums at universities".

The lengthiest passage, however, summarises the academic and political fight around Islamic Azad University:
Significantly, several clerics and high-ranking officials have taken aim at Islamic Azad University, which is based in Tehran and has branches around the country. The university is largely run by the family of former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a powerful moderate and leading opponent of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

“This university must once again be purified,” Ayatollah Muhammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi, the president’s spiritual adviser, said during a meeting with new cabinet members, the Rouydad Web site reported. “This purification must occur at the management level and other levels. You see just how many who do not believe in religion, Islam and God have attended and graduated from this university.”

Another cleric, Muhammad-Reza Babai, called for the new minister of higher education to review Azad’s management charter, during a Friday Prayer sermon in the central city of Kerman. The new minister, Kamran Daneshjoo, has also accused Azad of failing to meet standards.