The Latest from Iran (20 July): Khamenei "I am the Rule of the Prophet"

2135 GMT: Break Time. OK, taking a breather. But remember, we are back tomorrow morning with a very special analysis of the significance of the Supreme Leader's political and religious move with the issuance of his fatwa today.

2130 GMT: The Energy Squeeze. Najmeh Bozorgmehr of The Financial Times posts a useful summary of the problems for Tehran from foreign disinvestment from the energy sector, "Iran struggles over its gas field riches".

NEW Iran & Sanctions: “All Major Pakistani Banks Refuse Transactions” (Shah)
NEW Iran Follow-Up: Dealing with the Media’s “War, War, War” Drumbeat
NEW Iran Document: Isa Saharkhiz in Court “Should the Supreme Leader Be Dismissed?” (18 July)
Iran’s Made-Up Stories: Fars News Busted by “Zionist” Journalist Ghazi
Iran Analysis: Voices Raised — Removing the Supreme Leader (Verde)
The Latest from Iran (19 July): Criticisms and the Leader

2120 GMT: The Bazaar Plot. Tehran Bureau has published the English translation of the attack by Hossein Shariatmadari of Keyhan against those striking at the Tehran Bazaar:

Taxes are the right of the people and the government does not have the right to be remiss taking action against people who threaten to close the bazaar through a handful of hired mercenaries and who blackmail and spread ambiguities. In the last few days the telephones at Kayhan have not stopped ringing and many religious and committed bazaaris, meaning almost all of them, have been complaining about the failure of officials to take action against the plot of a handful of prosperous capitalists who feel no pain, and especially in the present sensitive circumstances.

2110 GMT: Sanctions Watch. An EU correspondent tips us off that President Ahmadinejad recently sent Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Ahani to Germany to lobby against sanctions.

2105 GMT: Shake-Up. An earthquake of magnitude 5.8 has been reported in southern Iran. There are no reported casualties.

So far, there is also no news of whether there were women's breasts in the area.

2100 GMT: Refugee Issues. A new project, Zanboor (Bee), has been launched to assist Iranian refugees in Turkey.

2055 GMT: Negotiations? Iranian state media is still hammering away at the propaganda line that it "rejected" an overture by the US, presumably through the alleged request of Senator John Kerry to visit Tehran (see 0615 GMT), for discussions.

Radio Farda reports, however, that the Afghanistan summit in Kabul provided the opportunity for Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki to chat with European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton.

2045 GMT: Catching Up with Khamenei. Back from a family break to check on our headline story....

In a curious development, it appears that the Supreme Leader's dramatic "I am the Rule of the Prophet" fatwa has disappeared from much of Iranian state media. The reformist Parleman News, which we cited initially (see 1400 GMT), is still carrying the declaration, as is the Supreme Leader's new "Facebook Lite" page.

We are working on a special analysis for tomorrow.

1630 GMT: Back to the Bazaar Rumours (see 1440 GMT). Iran Focus rounds up the chatter: Sabz-e Meidan (vegetable wholesale market), shoemakers, and jewellers at Tehran Bazaar on strike with only a handful of shops open yesterday. Textile and Fabric Bazaar half closed, and few people were shopping.

Many petrol stations in Tehran were closed on Monday, with long queues in Tarasht, Sattar Khan, Behboudi and Baharestan Streets. In some cases, drivers had to wait in line for many hours.

And Rooz Online has put out an intriguing round-up of developments, including the entry of Saeed Mortazavi --- former Tehran Prosecutor General and "anti-smuggling" aide to the President --- into the Bazaar.

We are treating as unconfirmed at this point.

1453 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Saeed Torabian, member of the Tehran Bus Workers Union, has been freed on heavy bail after pressure from unionists within and outside Iran.

1444 GMT: Picture of Day. Tahavole Sabz has posted a photograph, reprinted by the Los Angeles Times, of Parvin Fahimi, the mother of Sohrab Arabi, killed by pro-government militiamen on 15 June 2009, with former detainees of Kahrizak Prison:



1440 GMT: Bazaar Rumours. And, just to make life even busier, we are getting persistent reports that --- despite claims of a resolution with an agreed 15% tax increase --- there are still closures in the Tehran Bazaar.

1435 GMT: After the Bombings. Rah-e-Sabz is reporting that people did not let the Governor and other top officials make speeches during the funerals in Zahedan for victims of last Thursday's suicide bombings.

1413 GMT: Economy Watch. Tehran MP Alireza Mahjoub has reportedly asked, "How can we manage factories with a dictatorship in place?"

1409 GMT: The Revolution Guards' Orders. It is a proving to be a day of revelations: after the Supreme Leader's fatwa comes the publication of alleged Islamic Revolution Guards Corps intelligence orders concerning the opposition.

1400 GMT: Supreme Leader "I Am the Rule of the Prophet". Ayatollah Khamenei has issued the following fatwa, published by all major Iranian media outlets:

Question: Please explain about “obedience of velayat-e-faqih”. In other words, how should we act so that we know we have belief in and have full obedience to the successor of the hidden Imam?

Answer: “Velayat-e faghih” means the rule of cleric who has the right requirements in the age of absence [of the 12th Shia Imam]. It is a branch of the rule of the saints [Shia Imams] and the same as the rule of the Prophet. As long as you obey the commands of the ruler of the Muslims [the Supreme Leader], it shows that you have full obedience to that.

1330 GMT: Don't Drink the Water. Minister of Health Marzieh Vahid Dastjerdi has declared that Tehran's drinking water should not be consumed by pregnant women and babies, adding that if the Minister of Energy says differently, he is responsible for the consequences.

1325 GMT: Academic Corner. The sudden "retirements" of professors are continuing: Rah-e-Sabz reports that 39 from Tehran, Shahid Beheshti and Khajeh Nasir universities have been moved out of their posts. The website comments that this is the "5th phase" of the retirement project, saying that 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi has given the order to "open fire".

1230 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Communications student Abbas Ahmadlou has begun serving a one-year prison sentence in Arak on charges of insulting the Supreme Leader and causing unease among public opinion.

HRANA reports that writer and translator Hojatollah Nikou'i has been arrested.

1210 GMT: Punishing the mourners. Students of Elm-o-Sanat University who attended the memorial for Kianoush Asa, slain last year in the post-election conflict, have received notices of suspension.

1208 GMT: Democracy and Security. Former President Mohammad Khatami has condemned the Zahedan bombings and said democracy is "the least expensive and most useful way to rule".

1202 GMT: Mohammad Shahryari and Abbas Ali Noura, two of the three MPs who had said they would resign after last Thursday's bombing in Sistan and Baluchistan Province, have announced they will remain in the Majlis after advice from the Supreme Leader. They said, however, that if they do not see Government action for security, they will call the Foreign Minister and Minister of Interior to account in Parliament.

1157 GMT: Economic Front. MP Hossein Eslami has claimed that 70% of Iran's imports are affected by corruption. Eslami said Iran, rather than having a massive imbalance of imports, should be exporting far more goods than it takes in. He added that workers have no labour security, which is a major reason for divorces.

1155 GMT: The Zahedan Bombing. Two more victims of last Thursday's double suicide bombing in southeastern Iran have died, bringing the toll to 29.

1145 GMT: When Internet Censorship Starts to Bite. Perhaps when even institutions inside Iran start disseminating anti-filtering software?

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reports that Tabnak, affiliated Secretary of Expediency Council and 2009 Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, has posted a link to a proxy server (although that link is now "broken" when we tried to access it).

In April a pro-Ahmadinejad website had complained about the "filtering" of other sites.

1140 GMT: Parliament v. President. A pointed attack from MP Ali Motahari: the Majlis should stand firmly against "khodkamegi" (obstinacy/dictatorship) of the Government. Motahari even turned on fellow legislators, saying some caused the Government's insubordination and tendency to flout laws.

1050 GMT: Sanctions Watch. We've posted a separate entry on what appears to be a significant development with the restriction of Pakistani business with Iran.

The European Union is reportedly considering new sanctions, including bans on investment in the oil and gas sector and restrictions on shipping and finance. The draft of the measures names 41 Iranian people, 57 companies or other entities, 15 additional companies thought to be controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, and three under the control of the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines.

Senior European diplomats will discuss the proposed sanctions on Thursday.

0820 GMT: "I'm Sorry" on a Blog Gets a Travel Ban. Adeleh Ziaei has received a ban on travel for posting “I’m Sorry” on the blog of her husband Arya Aramnejad, an artist, singer, and composer.

Aramnejad was arrested in March, and Ziaei, wrote, “I’m sorry to say that Arya was wrong to think that in his beloved country, terms such as Law, Freedom, oh! Freedom! Dignity and Justice mean anything besides merely seductive words; he was wrong that he didn’t know this is Iran, a place where anything may take place and whoever has the power can accomplish whatever he wants!”

Aramanejad has been held in solitary confinement for 50 days. His trial was on 6 July but he could not present a defense since he had no access to his judicial file.

0755 GMT: We've posted a follow-up to last Friday's dissection of war talk posing as reporting and analysis, "Dealing with the Media’s 'War, War, War' Drumbeat".

0705 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Students Iman Sedighi, Mohsen Barzgar, and Hossein Nataj were released from Mati Kola Prison in Babol on Sunday after serving half of their sentences.

0615 GMT: We begin this morning with a translation of Sunday's prepared statement by journalist Isa Saharkhiz for his appearance in Revolutionary Court: "Should the Supreme Leader Be Dismissed?"

Meanwhile, this rather silly diversion....

On Sunday, we noted the curious claim of Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of Parliament's National Security Commission, that "the US Congress has informed the Swiss envoy that it is ready to hold negotiations with Iran". We requested, "Mr Boroujerdi, please do get in touch with us and let us know which US Congressmen have been talking to you of this hope for discussions — because we haven’t seen any sign of this back-channel being established."

While I don't think Mr Boroujerdi is a regular EA reader, we got an answer yesterday via the Islamic Republic News Agency: "Boroujerdi said that Iran turned down a request made by U.S. Senator John Kerry to pay a visit to Tehran because the US Democrats proved inconsistent in word and action."

Hmm.... While Kerry is a former Presidential candidate and the head of the Senate's Foreign Relations Committee, I'm not sure he is "the US Congress". At the same time, he has pursued initiatives either on behalf of the Administration (a trip to Afghanistan) or as the point man for US diplomacy (a visit to Syria before the US re-established an Embassy in Damascus).

If Kerry did sound out the Iranians about shaking hands in Tehran, it is either a risky individual initiative or a fumbling step for "engagement", given Tehran's exposure of the approach.

Middle East Inside Line: Syria-Turkey-Lebanon Condemn Israel, Netanyahu Map "Gap", Israel's Iron Dome System

Syria-Turkey-Lebanon Condemning Israel: Syria and its "greatest hope" Turkey again condemned Israel over its deadly intervention against the Freedom Flotilla on 31 May. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri were both present in Damascus as leaders called on the international community to add more pressure for an international probe and to urge Israel to lift the blockade on Gaza.

What Is "The Gap" Between Israel & Palestine?: Following the meeting this weekend between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Egyptian counterpart Hosni Mubarak, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit said more work needs to be done to bridge the gap between Israel and the Palestinians before they can move to direct peace talks.

Israel-Palestine Analysis: What is the Obama Administration Seeking?
Middle East Inside Line: Israel-Palestine Moves in Cairo, Netanyahu-Lieberman Feud, No Smoking Pipes for Gaza Women

What is that gap? According to the London-based A-Sharq al-Awsat, Netanyahu showed Mubarak a map outlining his vision for a final settlement with the Palestinians. The Egyptian President refused publication of this because it is far from the demands of Palestinians for a future state based on 1967 lines with agreed land swaps. Mubarak reportedly told Netanyahu to redraft the map.

Israel's Iron Dome Defense System & Its Cost: The "Iron Dome" short- and medium-range rocket-defense system successfully completed its last round of tests Monday, the Defense Ministry and the Israel Defense Forces said.

There may be a longer-term issue with the system, however. Last week, the government took a decision to cut 2.7 billion shekels ($700 million) from the defense budget. Some IDF generals in IDF argue that it is better to focus on offense using air forces to hit strategic targets rather than deploying defense batteries, but Defense Minister Ehud Barak promised Monday that the Iron Dome batteries would soon be operational.

Currently, Israel has two batteries, each costing between 40 and 50 million shekels. Israel is soon going to receive a special aid package of $250 million from the US, a sum that is meant to cover the purchase of up to nine Iron Dome batteries. However, estimates speak of a need for at least 20 batteries to cover the Galilee and the Negev from missile threats from Lebanon and Gaza. Radar systems and interceptor missiles also have to be deployed.

Al-Qaeda Targets Arab League: The group's second man, Ayman al-Zawahiri, bombarded Arab leaders for having "surrendered" to Israel after their last summit in March. In the video, he said:

Arabs met in Sirte, (Libya), and they only came out with what they call strategic peace choice. What strategic peace choice, when they are sending a message of surrender to Israel that 'We have given up, so do whatever you like in Palestine'?

Iran & Sanctions: "All Major Pakistani Banks Refuse Transactions" (Shah)

I was going to post this story, from Shahid Shah in The News in Pakistan, in our Tuesday updates, but it seems so potentially significant --- given that Pakistan neighbours Iran and that the story also points to a choking-off of trade via Dubai, which has handled a large share of trade with Tehran --- that we have given it a separate entry:

Economic sanctions on Iran by the United States has also affected Pakistan’s exports as all major banks have refused to conduct transactions with the troubled nation, exporters said on Monday.

Although there is no official ban on the transactions of Pakistani banks with Iran, banks are hesitant to incur the superpower’s wrath, they said. Several Pakistani exporters’ dues were withheld in Iran as no bank was ready to conduct transactions, they added.

The head of a private bank on the condition of anonymity said that they were in no position to challenge this power structure. He agreed that a majority of Pakistani banks were not conducting transactions with Iran.

One of the major trade routes with Iran is via sea to Bandar Abbas from the Pakistani ports, while the land route to Taftan in Iran is from the Chaman border in Balochistan.

An exporter said that the land route remains unfeasible for exporters from Karachi. This route is also used as a means of smuggling. According to reports, Iran closed its Taftan border with Pakistan on Sunday amid threats of suicide attacks in its territories.

Pakistan had been conducting trade with Iran via Dubai. After dollar transactions from Iran stopped under the sanctions, Dubai banks started transactions in euro, but now it is carried out in the UAE dirham, a source said.

An exporter told The News that even Dubai was not opening letters of credit (LCs) with Iran for the last one month. “This is now a very critical situation.”

According to the data of the Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS), exports to Iran declined by 55 per cent to $116.79 million during the eight months from July 2009 to February 2010 against $259.70 million during the corresponding period last year.

Kazim Khandawala, one of the leading basmati rice exporters, told The News that a majority of the banks in Pakistan stopped transactions with Iranian banks since one-and-a-half-year.

“We had been doing our business via Dubai. If we state Bandar Abbas as our port of destination in the State Bank of Pakistan’s export form, banks refuse to handle the money.”

During trade via Dubai, Khandawala said that they paid nearly four percent in commission to the agents as land routes were made illegal and goods were under-invoiced.

Khandawala, who was a major basmati rice exporter to Iran with a volume of around 40 containers a month from 2002 till 2007, has almost lost his business due to transactional problems. “Now, I barely send two containers a month.”

Due to the refusal of Pakistani banks to conduct transactions, Indian rice exporters sold their variety 1121 rice, which was purchased by Iranians in the absence of Pakistani basmati rice.

Iran is a huge market where Pakistan could sell its entire production of basmati, he said. “Though India has fully captured Pakistan’s basmati market in Iran, Pakistani rice can still be sold there, as our rates are good and we have people-to-people contact,” he added.

Iran Follow-Up: Dealing with the Media's "War, War, War" Drumbeat (Lynch)

UPDATE 0815 GMT: Matt Duss also has posted an effective challenge to the cries of those promoting a military option against Iran.



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On Friday, we took apart the overblown, thinly-sourced "report" by Joe Klein in Time Magazine of preparations for a military strike on Iran. This, of course, won't stop those agitating for bombing: the latest egregious example is the preaching, posing as analysis, of former CIA operative Reuel Marc Gerecht in The Weekly Standard.

Writing in Foreign Policy, Marc Lynch exposes the campaign and highlights its. (I would only add that this is not just a case of a weak argument. It is also one of manufactured "information". There is little if any evidence that the Obama Administration has modified its point-blank warning to West Jerusalem against a military adventure.)

UPDATED Iran Analysis: When “War Chatter” Poses as Journalism (Step Up, Time Magazine)

....Why the latest round of commentary about an attack on Iran? It isn't because there are new arguments out there. Gerecht's long Weekly Standard piece is typical of the genre, and could have been written any time in the last decade (and in the case of the Weekly Standard has been, repeatedly): we must bomb Iran because there are no other policy options which guarantee success; the risks of an attack are exaggerated; the benefits of an attack are great; and Iranians and Arabs secretly want us to do it. Nor have the rebuttals changed: other policy options are available, which at least slow down Iran's progress towards a nuclear weapon even if they do not provide the kind of epistemic certainty which hawks crave; the risks of an attack are many and real; the benefits of an attack are likely to be less than advertised; and it is exceedingly doubtful that Arabs or Iranians will in fact rally to support an Israeli or American attack. These arguments are now as familiar as wallpaper, from the arguments over Iraq from the 1990s-2003 through the long years of arguments about Iran.

I suspect that the real reason for the new flood of commentary calling for attacks on Iran is simply that hawks hope to pocket their winnings from the long argument over sanctions, such as they are, and now push to the next stage in the confrontation they've long demanded. Hopefully, this pressure will not gain immediate traction. Congress can proudly demonstrate their sanctions-passingness, so the artificial Washington timeline should recede for a while. The Pentagon is now working closely with Israel, it's said, in order to reassure them and prevent their making a unilateral strike, which should hopefully push back another artificial clock. That should buy some time for the administration's strategy to unfold, for better or for worse. An attack on Iran would still be a disaster, unnecessary and counterproductive, and the White House knows that, and it's exceedingly unlikely that it will happen anytime soon. But the real risk is that the public discourse about an attack on Iran normalizes the idea and makes it seem plausible, if not inevitable, and that the administration talks itself into a political corner. That shouldn't be allowed to happen.

Read full article....

US "National Security": More on the Sprawling "Top Secret America" (Priest/Arkin)

The Washington Post has published the second part of the high-profile series by Dana Priest and William Arkin, based on two years of investigation, of the sprawling US "national security state", which now takes in hundreds of thousands of private personnel as well as Government employees:

In June, a stone carver from Manassas chiseled another perfect star into a marble wall at CIA headquarters, one of 22 for agency workers killed in the global war initiated by the 2001 terrorist attacks.

The intent of the memorial is to publicly honor the courage of those who died in the line of duty, but it also conceals a deeper story about government in the post-9/11 era: Eight of the 22 were not CIA officers at all. They were private contractors.

US “National Security”: Revealing the Sprawl of “Top-Secret America”…in 2007 (Shorrock)
UPDATED The Perils of US Intelligence: A “Top-Secret World” Beyond Control (Priest/Arkin)

To ensure that the country's most sensitive duties are carried out only by people loyal above all to the nation's interest, federal rules say contractors may not perform what are called "inherently government functions." But they do, all the time and in every intelligence and counterterrorism agency, according to a two-year investigation by The Washington Post.

What started as a temporary fix in response to the terrorist attacks has turned into a dependency that calls into question whether the federal workforce includes too many people obligated to shareholders rather than the public interest -- and whether the government is still in control of its most sensitive activities. In interviews last week, both Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates and CIA Director Leon Panetta said they agreed with such concerns.

The Post investigation uncovered what amounts to an alternative geography of the United States, a Top Secret America created since 9/11 that is hidden from public view, lacking in thorough oversight and so unwieldy that its effectiveness is impossible to determine.

It is also a system in which contractors are playing an ever more important role. The Post estimates that out of 854,000 people with top-secret clearances, 265,000 are contractors. There is no better example of the government's dependency on them than at the CIA, the one place in government that exists to do things overseas that no other U.S. agency is allowed to do.

Private contractors working for the CIA have recruited spies in Iraq, paid bribes for information in Afghanistan and protected CIA directors visiting world capitals. Contractors have helped snatch a suspected extremist off the streets of Italy, interrogated detainees once held at secret prisons abroad and watched over defectors holed up in the Washington suburbs. At Langley headquarters, they analyze terrorist networks. At the agency's training facility in Virginia, they are helping mold a new generation of American spies.

Through the federal budget process, the George W. Bush administration and Congress made it much easier for the CIA and other agencies involved in counterterrorism to hire more contractors than civil servants. They did this to limit the size of the permanent workforce, to hire employees more quickly than the sluggish federal process allows and because they thought - wrongly, it turned out - that contractors would be less expensive.

Nine years later, well into the Obama administration, the idea that contractors cost less has been repudiated, and the administration has made some progress toward its goal of reducing the number of hired hands by 7 percent over two years. Still, close to 30 percent of the workforce in the intelligence agencies is contractors.

Read rest of article....