Turkey Analysis: Which Way is Ankara Heading? (Yenidunya)

There seems to be a lot of fuss right now about whether Turkey is "turning its face towards the East".

The query, often simplistic, arises from a number of development. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is pursuing a "Zero Problem with Neighbours" policy based on dialogue, various economic agreements, and the lifting of visa requirement. The policy includes a close relationship with both Syria and Iran.

This policy has been part of the uranium swap deal with Iran, dismissed by the West; the friction with Israel, from the "low chair" crisis up tothe  nine deaths on board the Mavi Marmara in the Freedom Flotilla; warming relations with Russia, crowned with a nuclear settlement; and the veto of sanctions against Iran in the UN Security Council.



Israeli officials reiterated, following the most recent crisis in high waters, that they view the region separated into two opposite camps. There are "moderates" such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Palestine (West Bank), Jordan, and Israel, There are "extremists" such as Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and (Palestine) Gaza. Israel asks: which will Turkey choose?

That blunt enquiry has been accompanied by some incredibly naive arguments, lacking an apparent notion of the basic principles of international relations. Nuh Yilmaz wrote in Foreign Policy magazine:

"All options are on the table” is the best phrase to describe how Turkey feels about Israel’s attack on humanitarian aid flotilla carrying more than 600 activists from 32 countries... Israel will, most likely, no longer be seen as a friendly state nor an ally, but will be treated as a rogue state by Turkey.

When I say Turkey will imply that “all options are on the table,” I do not mean that Turkey will wage a war against Israel. However, more dangerously, Israel will be seen as a state against which one should protect itself and should consider any possible action because of its unlawful and rogue character.

Others placed Ankara's "adventurism" at the centre of Turkish-American relations. Steven A. Cook of Foreign Policy argued that Turkey had not only shifted its axis but had dared to a challenge the US:

It is hard to admit, but after six decades of strategic cooperation, Turkey and the United States are becoming strategic competitors -- especially in the Middle East. This is the logical result of profound shifts in Turkish foreign and domestic politics and changes in the international system.

Some tried to find a formula for Turkey's "shift". On Thursday, Turkish daily Hurriyet asked whether there would be a "Middle East Union" under Turkey's leadership in the future. This would build on a joint declaration signed among Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria, seeking to lift visas and increase the level of cooperation in the fields of energy, health, agriculture, trade and customs.

Let me be blunt with you and with those who are wringing their hands. There has been no change in Turkey's axis.

Ankara's ultimate destination is still full membership in the European Union. Turkey's efforts and regional diplomatic initiatives are a part of its economic development and a part of its struggle to turn into a "strategic" mid-power which can help (re)shape the region.

The tension between a mid-power in Ankara and an American strategic partner --- a Middle East "spearhead" --- in Israel is the outcome of a power struggle between two allies at a time when the latter is under pressures and the benefits of "direct friendly support" of Washington are being seriously being questioned, inside and outside the US. The perception arises that Turkey is trying to fill the space Israel has left/will be forced to leave.

In the context of Turkey's economic boom and diplomatic manoeuvres to increase its credibility in the region, the  complicating factor is that its part to the European Union is currently blocked. Out of 34 chapters to be confirmed to accept Turkey as a part of the Union, only 12 chapters have been addressed so far. Of the other 22, 17 are being blocked by other countries --- eight alone by Cyprus.

The lesson to take from this dead end is crystal-clear: without political concessions on Cyprus and the Aegean Sea, there will be no European Union in the future for Turkey. So Ankara is not only  trying to gain time by looking to its back garden but also trying to knock on Europe's door with an increased credibility.

At the end of the day, Ankara's manoeuvres are not a new invention but the reflection of an active political agenda. As the president of the Washington-based American-Turkish Council, retired Ambassador James Holmes, said, "Turkey is expanding its interests, rather than isolating itself."

The current international alignments are suitable to Turkey's interests, since Washington needs Ankara more than other countries. That is not because of the political swamp in Afghanistan and Pakistan but also because of the ongoing diplomatic track with Iran and Syria, in the aftermath of Bush the Junior's imperial policies and Israel's perceived aggression in the region. Indeed, engagement and diplomacy is preferable to Washington rather than confrontations that could dynamite Obama's  "change", slapping aside unclenched fists and preventing a settlement between Israel and Ramallah.

There are limits to this political agenda. Although Ankara is ready with an economic surplus to deliver to its neighbours, it has not solved its own problems.

The weakest chain of the "Zero Problem" policy rattled in Turkey's relations with Armenia. Ankara couldn't break through long-standing fearsin the face of threats over energy supplies from the "little brother" Azerbaijan.

And, within Turkey, thousands of Kurdish children are in prisons and more officials of the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) are arrested. Indeed, the war with the Kurdish separatist group PKK is accelerating day-by-day since the Erdogan Government see the Kurdish political movement as a "rival".

And, of course, there are always the Armenian "genocide" issue and the Cyprus problem...

Another limit is Israel . West Jerusalem still means more than a regional power to Washington, remaining and a "friend" and a nuclear "democratic" power. Indeed, Washington sorted out the most recent Flotilla problem and gave a green light to Tel Aviv for an internal inquiry into the violence on the Mavi Marmara. Israel is not discredited in the eyes of Washington just because of a few days, not when military/intelligence relations are indispensable for both sides.

Still, if Ankara can show progress in its Kurdish and Cyprus issues in the near future along with continuing diplomacy advances in the region and a move back from blunter discourse towards Israel, it can continue increasing both its credibility to use as leverage against the EU and to promote its strategic importance to Washington.

Turkey and Israel: How Serious is the Tension? (Yenidunya)

Last Thursday a group of angry Israelis, including former member of Parliament Alex Goldfarb and Meretz Party activist Pinhas Har-Zahav, announced that they will leave for Cyprus next week on a flotilla and call for an end to the Turkish occupation of the island.

On Saturday, the Lebanese newspaper al-Mustaqbal reported that  Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was willing to travel to the Gaza Strip to "break the Israeli blockade". The newspaper said that Washington told Erdogan to delay his plans.

Gaza Flotilla LiveBlog (7 June): Moving Beyond the Attack
Turkey Inside Line: Erdogan Roars at Israel, Extends His Hand to Iraqi Kurdistan

How to get out of this escalating political conflict? The Jerusalem Post reported a possibility after Rabbi Menachem Froman of Tekoa in the West Bank met Erdogan in Istanbul. Froman said that Erdogan is willing to help Israel secure the release of Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier detained by Hamas since 2006.

However, as he met Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad in Istanbul on Monday (and just before Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrived today), Erdogan reiterated his position on Gaza: "The time has come to lift the embargo on Gaza. We don't want an open air prison in the world any more." He also stated that Turkey can give Gaza everything it needs if Israel lifts the siege.

Gaza Flotilla LiveBlog (7 June): Moving Beyond the Attack

2045 GMT: Back from an academic break to find that Israel has tried to set out the lines of an internal enquiry into last Monday's attack. Gregg Carlstrom reports, "IDF [Israel Defense Forces announces internal 'team of experts' to review flotilla operation, led by reserve general; other three members are high-ranking officers."

Gaza Flotilla: Israel “Passengers Linked to Hamas, Al Qa’eda, Terrorist Organisations”
Gaza Flotilla LiveBlog (6 June): Israel Blames “Islamist Mercenaries”

1330 GMT: More on the Turkish Line. The Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA) gathered in Istanbul today; Israel, one of the 20 members, was absent. In his public briefing, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said: "Israel has the responsibility of accountability in front of international law. We have nothing to hide. It is Israel that has to give response to the international commission. If some countries are privileged and out of international law, let us know so."

Then Davutoglu made Ankara's next move in the chess game both over the Flotilla and over regional politics, "If Israel gives the green light to the formation of an international committee and is ready to answer questions of the committee, Turkish-Israeli relations will have a different course. Otherwise, Turkish-Israeli relations cannot be normalized."

Davutoglu reiterated, "If Israel thinks it has protected its national interests and rights, it should declare that it accepts formation of an international committee. Otherwise, it means that they are hiding some facts."

Pretty strong stuff, but gentle compared to the opinion of Israel's former Deputy Chief of General Staff, Uzi Dayan: "If the Turkish Prime Minister [Recep Tayyip Erdogan joins such a flotilla, we should make clear beforehand this would be an act of war, and we would not try to take over the ship he was on, but would sink it.”

1325 GMT: Sorry (Sort Of) for the Satire. The Israeli Government has apologised for a spoof video e-mailed by its press office to international media.

To the tune of US LiveAid's 1985 "We Are the World", the video shows "peace activists" singing, "We Con the World".

Mark Regev, the main spokesman for the Israeli Government, clarified, "I thought it was funny. It is what Israelis feel, but the government has nothing to do with it."

1230 GMT: Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad came together for a public briefing in Istanbul. Erdogan said:

Thank you for accepting our invitation. We talked about the provocative attack against the humanitarian aid ship in which our people were there. And we cursed it once more.

The attack's targeting unarmed peace attendants increases the importance of the situation.

This shame of humanity against innocent civilians is violating international laws.

If one is to talk about terror in Mediterranean, it is Israel's state terrorism.

1200 GMT: Turkish President Abdullah Gul talked to Mahmoud Abbas, the leader of the Palestinian Authority for 45 minutes. Meanwhile, a joint committee agreement was signed between Palestinian leader on foreign affairs, Riad El Maliki and Ahmet Davutoglu. According to Turkish daily Hurriyet, this agreement consolidates Turkey's political support and organizes the operational structure of Turkish aid to Palestine indefinitely.

1100 GMT: When asked whether military agreements with Israel are to be suspended or canceled, Turkish Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul said, "All agreements, including the military ones, are still in place."

1045 GMT: The Israel Defense Forces’ Operations Directorate has issued an order forbidding all IDF personnel from traveling to Turkey “out of fear for Israelis being attacked”.

1015 GMT: So when does the Flotilla crisis stop being a crisis? Well, it could well be when “new” news intervenes.

This morning last week’s events have been overtaken by reports that Israeli forces have killed four Palestinians on a boat off the coast of Gaza. The Israelis claim the men were wearing diving gear. The al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades, the armed wing of Fatah [note: not Hamas], have told Al Jazeera the men were members of the group and were only conducting "training exercises".

Hamas security forces say a fifth man is missing and a sixth --- a senior member of the Brigades --- escaped.

Meanwhile, in an attempt to keep the Flotilla issue alive (and perhaps to make political capital from it?), Tehran is now saying that two aid ships of Iran’s Red Crescent will set sail with food, medicine, and appliances for Gaza in the near future. Iranian doctors and relief workers will be on board.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard had announced earlier that it would provide naval escorts for any ships trying to reach Gaza, an offer rejected by Hamas.

Meanwhile….

An Israeli Parliamentary Committee has recommended, by a 7-1 vote, that Knesset member Haneen Zoabi should be stripped of special privileges to go abroad, the right to carry a diplomatic passport, and the right to have the state cover litigation fees incurred while serving in the Knesset.

A battle of words and videos continues over Ken O’Keefe, one of five passengers on the Mavi Marmara accused by Israel of having links to “terrorist organisations”.

An injured O’Keefe appeared in a video claiming that Israelis were aggressors during the Monday attack and that passengers seized weapons to stop the killing.  He has also been interviewed by Al Jazeera about his relationship with Palestinian groups.

Gaza Flotilla LiveBlog (6 June): Israel Blames "Islamist Mercenaries"

2030 GMT: Turkey's minister of energy and natural resources, Taner Yildiz, has announced that there will be no new energy or water projects with Israel until relations between the two countries improve: "At a time when we are focused on the humanitarian aspects of what Israel did, we can't talk about commercial and economic matters. We won't start any project with Israel until relations with them have been normalized."

NEW Gaza Flotilla: Israel "Passengers Linked to Hamas, Al Qa'eda, Terrorist Organisations"
Turkey Inside Line: Erdogan Roars at Israel, Extends His Hand to Iraqi Kurdistan
Gaza Flotilla LiveBlog (5 June): Israel Forces Board the Rachel Corrie

1920 GMT: A group of senior Israel Navy officers have publicly called on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak to establish an independent and external commission of inquiry to investigate the Mavi Marmara raid: "We believe that the operation ended in a disaster on a military and diplomatic level," the reserve officers who served as commanders of Navy ships wrote in the letter.


1845 GMT: We have posted, in a separate entry, the dramatic press release from the Israeli military that five of the passengers of the Mavi Marmara are linked to Hamas, Al Qa'eda, and other "terrorist organisations".

1815 GMT: This Should Be Interesting. Israel's Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, not noted for diplomatic subtlety, is reportedly planning to meet "with envoys and representatives of Israel, and Jewish communities in the US and Canada, to explain the Israeli government's position on the flotilla affair".

There are no indications Lieberman will meet US Government or UN officials during the trip.

1650 GMT: It appears that, contrary to earlier reports (1105 GMT), Israel will reject the UN's proposal of an international enquiry into the attack on the Mavi Marmara. Michael Oren, Israel's Ambassador to the US, has told Fox News, "We are rejecting an international commission. We are discussing with the Obama administration a way in which our inquiry will take place."

Mark Regev, the Israeli Government's primary spokesman, has just repeated the line on CNN.

1639 GMT: The Battle of the Photographs. We noted in our initial update (1045 GMT) that defenders of the Israeli military action have been circulating a photograph, taken from the Turkish newspaper Hurriyet, that they claim shows passengers attacking an injured Israeli soldier.

Defenders of the Flotilla are now pointing out that the one picture is out of context: the full set of nine photographs from Hurriyet, Turkish newspapers, and other sources show the Flotilla's activists caring for Israeli troops (see inset photograph).

1635 GMT: The Free Gaza Movement reports that the five Irish passengers from the Rachel Corrie have been deported and will return to Ireland tomorrow.

1615 GMT: Israel has deported eight Flotilla activists to Jordan. Seven are from the Rachel Corrie; the eighth is an Indonesian who was injured in the attack on the Mavi Marmara.

No word on the other passengers of the Rachel Corrie.

1545 GMT: Blame Turkey, An illuminating clash in approach between two of America's largest newspapers: while The New York Times has an analysis noting the re-assessment amongst some US insiders of the relationship with Israel, The Washington Post's editorial team directs its fire at Ankara:

Western governments have been right to be concerned about Israel's poor judgment and botched execution in the raid against the Free Gaza flotilla. But they ought to be at least as worried about the Turkish government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which since Monday has shown a sympathy toward Islamic militants and a penchant for grotesque demagoguery toward Israel that ought to be unacceptable for a member of NATO.

1230 GMT: Eyewitness Testimony. Journalist Abbas Al Lawati, who was aboard the Mavi Marmara, has posted the third part of his account, focusing on his interrogation by Israeli authorities.

1210 GMT: Israeli Foreign Ministry officials have said that West Jerusalem not apologize to Turkey for the deaths of eight Turkish and 1 Turkish-American activists on the Mavi Marmara.

A "top official"laimed that the Turkish demand for an official apology was mainly an excuse to allow Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut diplomatic ties with Israel.

The Foreign Ministry officials said they were surprised by the request for an apology from Turkey's Ambassador to the US, Namik Tan, who "was known to be a supporter of Israel".

(Hmm.... If a "supporter of Israel" is calling for the apology, I would think that Israeli officials might consider how serious the diplomatic situation has become.)

1130 GMT: The New Israeli Line. Speaking at the opening of a Cabinet meeting,Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced, ""Evidence shows separate group of violent Islamists boarded flotilla....[They] boarded the ship at a separate port, did their own provisioning, and were not subject to the same security check of their luggage as all the other passengers.”

The Israeli Defense Forces are briefing the press that a group of about 50 men of the 700 on board the Mavi Marmara were trained fighters recruited from the northwestern Turkey city of Bursa. None had ID cards or passports; each carried an envelope with $10,000 in cash.

1105 GMT: Ha'aretz reports that UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has given Israel a proposal for an international committee of inquiry into the raid on the Mavi Marmara. The newspaper says that senior Israeli officials are recommending a positive response because Turkey will probably oppose it.

The committee would be headed by former New Zealand Prime Minister Geoffrey Palmer, an expert on maritime law, and include representatives from the US, Turkey, and Israel. Ban made the proposal in a phone call to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

1045 GMT: The immediate tragedy and dramas of two Israeli boardings of Freedom Flotilla ships may be over, but there is still a lot of uncertainty and political tension about today.

Israel's official line is that most of the activists from the MV Rachel Corrie, the ship seized by the Israeli military yesterday and towed to Israel's port of Ashdod, will be deported.

The Free Gaza Movement, however, says, "Nothing from the kidnapped passengers. [Nobel Prize laureate] Mairead [Corrigan]'s husband said no contact with her. Israel refuses to allow lawyers to talk to them."

The battle of words and pictures also continues. There are claims that Israel altered the audio on supposed communications with the Mavi Marmara (see Friday's updates for the Israeli version of the exchange), the ship attacked on Monday, to create the impression of passengers shouting insults such as "Shut up, go back to Auschwitz".

And discussion is heating up over photographs in Hurriyet,  the Turkish newspaper, showing an injured Israeli commando surrounded by passengers of the Mavi Marmara.

Turkey Inside Line: Erdogan Roars at Israel, Extends His Hand to Iraqi Kurdistan

The repercussions continue in Turkish politics from Israel's bloody intervention against the Freedom Flotilla. According to the Turkish daily Radikal, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday:

I do not think that Hamas is a terrorist organization. I said the same thing to the United States. I am still of the same opinion. They are Palestinians in resistance, fighting for their own land.

They [Hamas] won the election. You are always talking about democracy. You’ll never let Hamas rule. What kind of democracy is this?

Gaza Flotilla LiveBlog (5 June): Aboard the Rachel Corrie
Turkey Inside Line: Parliament, President, and People Condemn Israel

Hamas was officially hosted in Ankara in 2006 and Erdogan has continuously urged leaders of other states to recognize and give a chance to Hamas as a legitimate political party. He continued yesterday:

I am calling on the whole Turkey, the whole world once more from here, in Konya; The fate of Jerusalem is not different that of Istanbul. The fate of Gaza is not different than that of Ankara. The fate of Ramallah, Nablus, Refah, Cenin and Beytullahim is ever never different than that of Konya. Even if the world keeps silence, we will not!

They [Israelis] saw innocent babies as a threat. They massacred those innocent babies in their mothers' arms, like those terrorists [PKK] here. They massacred those innocent children on their bicycles. They are saw students, youngsters as a threat. Those children threw stones and they threw phosphorus bombs. And, unfortunately, the world is standing behind the ones who used phosphorus bombs.

It has nothing to do with Hamas, al-Qaeda, anti-Semitism. Do not deceive others. Be honest! Our problem has to do with Israel's tyrannizing state terror method.

Then, Erdogan left made his rhetorical mark:

This is an explicit example of Israel's ill psychology, paranoia and trauma. They say "the world is hypocritical to us". The one who is hypocritical, liar and proud of murderers is you! You know killing well. I am talking to them in their language. The sixth command in Torah says "You shall not kill." Let me say it in your language, I am saying in Hebrew: "Lo Tir'tsach."

Meanwhile, the Turkish Prime Minister's "Kurdish Initiative" continues. Massoud Barzani, president of the Regional Kurdish Administration in Iraq, was in Turkey for the firs time in nine years.

Barzani talked to Erdogan, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, and Selahattin Demirtas, the leader of Peace and Democracy Party (BDP).The Iraqi Kurdish leader said that he welcomed and appreciated the "Kurdish Initiative", a government-led project to grant more rights to ethnic Kurds in Turkey. He also told Erdogan he would give support to Turkey's fight against PKK, the separatist/terrorist organisation. Davutoglu called Barzani "Kak Barzani" ("Barzani brother").

Demirtas said:

We expressed to Barzani our satisfaction with developing peaceful relations between Turkey and the [Iraqi] Kurdistan region. Barzani underlined how important his visit is and he said their relations with Turkey would be more robust.

BDP believes that, with good relations between neighbors and the Kurdistan region, Turkey must provide peace in the region. We hope this visit will contribute to peace in the region."

We do politics as an opposition party. We say this initiative does not lead to democratization and radical reforms. Barzani has his own views but we stand at the same point.

As Barzani was holding talks with politicians, his representatives met with Zafer Caglayan, state minister responsible for foreign trade. Caglayan said a delegation of businessmen would pay a visit to Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan to seek trade and investment possibilities.

Sinan Celebi, trade and industry authority for the regional administration, added, “Everything is ready and there is potential. Let’s cooperate. We expect Turkish companies to invest as soon as possible. The doors are wide open." The visit is expected to take place in July.

So Davutoglu's "zero-problem" strategy is still on track. Indeed, Erdogan might be interested in boosting northern Iraq's economy in returnfor political and military support against PKK. This would diminish the dominance of BDP amongst Kurdish people inside Turkey. if not the party itself can be "tamed".

Still, the ripples of Israel and Gaza affect even this issue. When asked ababout Erdogan's words accusing Israel of "state terrorism", the deputy chairman of BDP, Bengi Yildiz, said: "That is true, Turkey is applying to state terrorism to Kurds too".