Iran: Ahmadinejad Chooses Confrontation Over Compromise and Governing

Iran: Green Wave Resurgent?
The Latest from Iran (7 September): Countdown to 18 September Begins

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The headline event yesterday was last night's raid on the offices of a committee, made up of Mir Hossein Mousavi's staff, investigating the abuse of detainees. We've got an update in a separate entry.

Yesterday's wider political story, however, was less dramatic as it evolved throughout the afternoon. We're still working through it, but it looks like President Ahmadinejad has once again stirred the pot --- not only versus the opposition but within the regime --- with some over-the-top talk.

Ahmadinejad's press conference yesterday morning was a delayed celebration of his win in getting almost all of his Ministers through Parliament --- it was supposed to be held last week but the delay in confirmations changed the plan. He used it primarily to crow about the election and his vanquishing of the opposition with the "victory of the Iranian nation’s morality against immoralities" and "success in removing contamination from Revolution".

So, instead of taking a calmer tone and talking down confrontation, the President was taking Iranians back to his first victory speech, on the weekend after the election, when he dismissed his opponents as "dust".

But Ahmadinejad once again did not get away with it.

It is one thing for reformists to criticise the President for his words, another for others in the Establishment to take offense. Have another look at yesterday's updates: the Supreme Leader's admonition to the Cabinet to listen to "benevolent criticism" now appears as a direct response to the President: back off the macho chatter and concentrate on governing the country.

Even more important, Ahmadinejad's speech prompted the Society of Militant Clergy to break cover and issue their first post-election statement with the call "to seriously try to solve people’s problems and the country’s economic and social issues, and avoid talking about unnecessary and provocative issues". The Society is "conservative", but as it includes members such as Hashemi Rafsanjani, it cannot be considered an unconditional supporter of the Government.

For EA, one of the recurrent themes of the post-election conflict has been that opportunities for compromise, and thus some resolution of the crisis, have been passed up. Ahmadinejad's first victory speech, the Supreme Leader's Friday Prayer address of 19 June, the decision to hold the Tehran trials, and the President's recent introduction of Friday Prayers are all examples. Ahmadinejad just added another.

There is a split of opinion here amongst the significance of this tough line. For some at EA, it is a sign of the growing strength of Ahmadinejad, backed by political allies and the Revolutionary Guard, and his skills as a street-fighting politician. For others, including me, it is a high-risk strategy which is trying to cover up his weaknesses.

And, to return to yesterday, here may be the primary weakness, beyond the talk of a new wave of protest and the manoeuvres of Mousavi-Khatami-Karroubi: Ahmadinejad has to govern. But because he is not as comfortable governing (and arguably not as good as governing as he is at issuing challenges and threats), he is always likely to return to the language and image of his triumph in the confrontation of his opponents.

Is that his undoing? Far too dramatic a question and far too soon to tell.

The Latest from Iran (7 September): Countdown to 18 September Begins

NEW Iran Urgent: Mousavi HQ Raided by Security Forces
Iran: Green Wave Resurgent?
Iran’s Victims: The 72 People Killed in Post-Election Conflict
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The Latest from Iran (6 September): The Reformists Speak

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2030 GMT: No Criticism Here. Press TV's website writes out the admonition of the Supreme Leader to President Ahmadinejad and the Cabinet to take heed of "benevolent criticism" (see 1830 GMT). Instead the report emphasizes Ayatollah Khamenei's declaration about the legitimacy established by the election, “The nation and the Islamic Revolution have proven their republican nature. If officials, elites and political experts understand this fact, many of the country's problems will be resolved."

1930 GMT: Is the Regime Targeting Leaders' Children? That's the question asked by one of our readers, who noticed the arrest of Atefeh Emam, the 18-year old daughter of Mir Hossein Mousavi's Chief of Staff, Javad Emam, who is still detained himself. She was reportedly released earlier today, after 24 hours of continuous interrogation, near a Tehran cemetery.

Earlier in the crisis, the regime arrested several members of the family of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, and pressure has been placed this week on the son of Mehdi Karroubi.

1830 GMT: Khamenei Manoeuvres. In a line which is not that far from the "conservative" Society of Militant Clergy criticism of the President, the Supreme Leader has advised Ahmadinejad and his Cabinet: "There is internal criticism backed by foreign media with the aim of sabotage but there is also benevolent criticism which may not come from supporters of the government but they contain good comments."

1710 GMT: Clerics Warn Ahmadinejad. The reformist Association of Teachers and Researchers of Qom have issued a statement warning that the regime cannot be maintained with military force, arrests, and brutality.

More intriguing, however, may be a finger-wagging at the President from the "conservative" Society of Militant Clergy, their first intervention in the post-election crisis:

We ask the president and the government to seriously try to solve people’s problems and the country’s economic and social issues, and avoid talking about unnecessary and provocative issues. The comments made and the disrespect committed in the debates, speeches and rallies before and after the election caused divergence.

The Society criticised the opposition for pursuing demands "outside law", but it also called for "consoling" those harmed in the unrest.

Possibly Relevant Fact: One of the members of the Society is former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.

1645 GMT: A Norooz News article, featured on Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook page, says that:

"Security Forces attacked the Staff office of Mir Hossein Mousavi which was resposible for following the issues of the detainees, without any legal premisson. All documentations were confiscated and taken out to... an unknown destination. As Staff members asked for receipt, security forces answered that no documents will be given back, thus there will be no receipt !!"

(Thanks to Mike Dunn for covering, as I was stuck in traffic when this came through. We have posted as a separate entry, cleaning up some of the text and adding a brief analysis.)

1430 GMT: We've been watching since reports came in yesterday of a meeting in Qom between Grand Ayatollahs Golpaygani and Makarem-Shirazi. Now the website of the Green movement, Mowj-e-Sabz, is reporting that there were several Grand Ayatollahs and senior clerics, including Bayat-Zanjani, Montazeri, and Mousavi-Ardebili, in the discussion of "practical steps against the coup government", after receving letters from political and social activists.

1340 GMT: Fars News reports that Press TV will soon air a "roundtable" of detainees Saeed Hajjarian, Mohammad Atrianfar, and Saeed Shariati on the causes of their "change of attitude and intellectual development".

1130 GMT: We're here but it is a very slow day, with little breaking on the political front.

There is one story that catches the eye. According to Tehran Bureau, via a source, the revelations of the abuses of detainees in Kahrizak Prison cames from a photographer for the Supreme Leader.

The well-known documentary maker and photojournalist, who recorded the eight-year Iraq-Iran war and became a ‘Sacred Defense’ photographer, was arrested during the post-election unrest and taken to Kahrizak where he was abused and tortured. After his release, he informed Ayatollah Khamenei about jail rapes and prisoner abuse. When the Supreme Leader expressed disbelief, the man revealed that he was one of the victims: "What they did was inhumane and in violation of all human rights… When they did those things to me, in my eyes it was you who was doing them."

Soon after this, Khamenei ordered the closure of the notorious detention center.

(The photojournalist was one of the cameramen who made Mir Hossein Mousavi’s campaign films, although it is unclear if they played any part in his arrest. He has also worked on a documentary about Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.)

0850 GMT: If the BBC was paying attention, rather than trotting along with the notion of Iran's Nuclear Programme Above All Else (see 0820 GMT), it might have noticed these comments from President Ahmadinejad in his press conference, directed at the opposition movement:

The election and post-election events was victory of Iranian nation's morality against immoralities. The other victory of Iranian nation was success in removing contamination from Revolution.

0840 GMT: Rafsanjani Speaks. A small amendment to the end of today's analysis, "The large presence of Hashemi Rafsanjani has disappeared." The former President said, at a ceremony to commemorate Ayatollah Ali Qoddousi, Iran's prosecutor general who was killed by Mujahedin-e-Khalq Organization (MKO) in 1981:

It is a vital need of the Islamic Republic and establishment to find a way to strengthen national unity and establish peace in the country. In the recent events, the sides should act in a way which will guarantee national unity.

Small amendment, indeed, as the statement just repeats Rafsanjani's cautious, hold-the-line comments that we evaluated in mid-August.

0820 GMT: MediaWatch. The New York Times does another good job this morning, picking up on the Khatami statement and Mousavi letter (though missing Karroubi's moves) that we've highlighted all weekend and in today's analysis. The Washington Post also mention Khatami and Mousavi but hide the impact by tucking them away under a headline on an older story, "Iran Canceling Major Ramadan Events in Wake of Election Protests".

CNN are nowhere to be found, preferring to go with "Chavez Pledges Closer Ties with Iran". Al Jazeera also gets distracted by the Venezuela dimension. Even worse at the BBC, which falls for the Iranian President's "Look Over There!" trick, "Tehran 'ready for global talks'".

0800 GMT: We heard about this story all day yesterday and are keeping a close eye on it (any information would be welcomed):

A group of Revolutionary Guards have resigned from the force according to Hosein Hashemian, an Iranian lawmaker. Mr. Hashemian told Parleman News Website that the unacceptable interference of the Revolutionary Guards in political matters has caused a rift in the force.

The story of resignations, including those of unit commanders, has been about since the start of the crisis, and more than 30 Islamic Revolution Guard Corps members have been arrested.

However, at this point without further confirmation, I am treating this as a bit of "psychological warfare" from the opposition to unsettle the Government. In particular, it is part of the fightback against the recent statements of the Revolutionary Guard's chief commander, General Mohammad Ali Jafari (see our separate analysis today): Hashemian called for Jafari to be detained for his claim that former President Khatami and other reformists were trying to "unseat" the regime.

0655 GMT: We've spent the morning on two special pieces. First and foremost, Josh Shahryar of Anonymous Iran's "The Green Brief" has spent hours translating into English, from the list provided by the Iranian website Norooz,  the names and descriptions of 72 people killed in post-election violence. Given that regime figures like high-ranking member of Parliament Alaeddin Boroujerdi have been trying to deny there is any evidence for the deaths, we think this is a vital document of record.

The second piece is an analysis, after a weekend of opposition statements, of the current political situation and the question of whether the Green Wave is moving towards a high-profile display of resistance on Qods Day, 18 September.

Iran: OK, The Cabinet's In, Has Ahmadinejad "Won"?

The Latest from Iran (4 September): A Friday Pause?
The Latest from Iran (3 September): Ahmadinejad Gets His Cabinet

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Today, on Iran's "weekend", should be a political catch-your-breath day after the culmination of Parliament's approval of 18 of 21 proposed Ministers for the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. News slowed to a standstill last night, and there is almost nothing of significance this morning. There are Friday prayers in Tehran, but no sign that they will produce the headline statements of the last three months, from the Supreme Leader's 19 June drawing of the post-election line to Hashemi Rafsanjani's 14 July intervention to President Ahmadinejad's hard-line anti-opposition pitch last week.

The President's immediate victory, with one unexpected minor setback (the loss of his proposed Minister of Energy), does not mean that the battle is over. Far from it. However, to appreciate the tensions, contests, and manoeuvres, you have to read far beyond "mainstream" coverage, especially outside Iran.

Most of the Western press have pretty much lost the plot. That's why, to our obvious frustration, almost all (with the notable exception of The New York Times) offered simple and misleading reviews of the final Parliament act yesterday. For some, the vote was the signal to move the focus to Iran's nuclear programme. For some, it was the quick grab headline of the Islamic Republic's first woman minister or Mr Most Wanted (Ahmad Vahidi, for a 1994 bombing in Argentina) becoming the Minister of Defense. For others, it was a "white flag" moment for the opposition, as Iran's "hardliners" had united behind the President. Game over.

Wrong. To be honest, I found yesterday's discussion by readers on our updates far more fascinating and useful than the press summaries. (Thanks, by the way, to all who have contributed.) Have a look, because it is here that the next steps of Hashemi Rafsanjani --- who dropped out of the non-Iranian narrative of events --- are considered. It is here that the important matter of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, and its relationship with the President and the Supreme Leader, is in play.

And it is here that attention is paid to those conservative and principlist elements who continue to dislike and even move against Ahmadinejad, even if they did not make their stand yesterday. What now for the Larijanis --- Ali still as Speaker of the Parliament, Sadegh as head of judiciary --- and their allies? What now for high-profile MPs like Ali Motahari and Ahmad Tavakoli, who have bitterly challenged the President and his inner circle since mid-July? What now for those who saw the in-fighting at Ministries like Intelligence as an attempt by Ahmadinejad (and the IRGC) to expand their control and who didn't take too kindly to it?

(And, lest we forget, our question from last week is not resolved, despite Ayatollah Khamenei's open intervention to assist with confirmation of the Cabinet, "What now for the Supreme Leader?")

For us, the post-election crisis has never been a matter of a single, dramatic showdown between the regime and its opponents but a series of waves, inside and outside the Government. There was the immediate wave of mass demonstrations (which were renewed at points throughout July), the wave of resistance to Ahmadinejad's inauguration, the wave of response to the detentions and trials, fed both by Mehdi Karroubi's initiatives and by conservative/principlist disquiet, and the wave that led up to yesterday's vote.

Clearly, the wave of resistance to an Ahmadinejad Cabinet is now dissipated. Indeed, I think it is now fair to drop the label "post-election crisis". Despite all those who will never believe that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won the 12 June vote, he has now gone through all the bureaucratic motions of re-assuming office. However, there is still a "legitimacy crisis". Just because you're President doesn't mean that folks accept your authority.

In part, that "legitimacy crisis" may not be as prominent because the Green wave is in a bit of a lull. Ramadan plays its part here, as well as battle fatigue and the disruption of the opposition's organisation. The leadership of Mir Hossein Mousavi in particular is now primarily on Facebook pages, given the shutdown of his websites, the detentions of some of his top advisors, and restrictions on his movements.

But, whether as an outcome of these difficulties or as a measured strategy, the Green movement has now set out its next resurgence. On 18 September, Qods (Jerusalem) Day, the plan is to assemble as Hashemi Rafsanjani speaks at Friday prayers in Tehran.

OK, but that's two weeks away, and there's no guarantee that the movement will produce a mass show of resistance (or even that Rafsanjani, given his withdrawal from prayers in mid-August, will appear), right? Of course, but that scepticism in turn discounts that tensions continue within the regime.

At the risk of repeating our "Iranians love chess" cliche too often, one strong move does not mean checkmate. And the President and his allies still have a glaring weakness in their defences. Look at the list of waves above. The one that has always been crashing ashore since mid-July has been the criticism of the post-election crackdown through detentions, beatings and abuses, confessions, and trials. And that wave was not put out to sea with the Parliament vote.

It is possible that Ahmadinejad has come through the worst of this. There was a signal this week that the post-election criticism of Mohsen Rezaei, despite the death of his campaign advisor's son in detention, may be muted by putting Rezaei at the head of State broadcasting. The Supreme Leader may be satisfied that he made his point when he "closed" Kahrizak prison. Sadegh Larijani may be content to take his place at judiciary and not challenge the continuing trials; alternatively, Ahmadinejad and the IRGC may accept that they should now curb the crackdown and let proceedings take a lower profile, with releases of some prisoners and "moderate" sentences for others. Ayatollah Khamenei may even announce an end-of-Ramadan "amnesty" for iconic detainees such as Saeed Hajjarian and Mohammad Ali Abtahi.

But, as of now, we don't know. And there's a twist in the tale.

Actually, it's not a twist. It's a storyline that has been here all the time. As EA's Chris Emery and our sharp-eyed/sharp-minded readers have noted, post-election events have added to the strains on the Iranian economy. The post-election crisis brought Government to a standstill and exposed problems in Iran's infrastructure. Of course, Ahmadinejad and his new Cabinet may try to stabilise or even jump-start the economy, but the President's record in this area hasn't been too good.

And that is where "post-election crisis" turns into "legitimacy crisis". It's one thing for an activist to get angry over a stolen vote; another for a "non-activist" to get angry because transport doesn't work, food is more expensive, housing isn't assured, and the lights go out.

If that is the case, if there is a wave of resentment over the economy that happens to arise at the same time as the ongoing waves over the political authority of the President and his allies (and I write that in full cognizance of the opinion of EA colleagues and some of our readers that the Revolutionary Guard has shown its muscle in recent weeks).....

Welcome back to the storm.

The Latest from Iran (3 September): Ahmadinejad Gets His Cabinet

Latest Iran Parliament Video: "Rig the Vote and You Go to Kahrizak" (3 September)
NEW MediaFail: How (Not) to Approach Iran's Nuclear Programme
The Latest from Iran (2 September): The Votes on the Cabinet

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1835 GMT: A reader writes to clarify the "first woman" Minister reference in the Reuters report (1645 GMT), and just now repeated by a CNN reporter: "Iran's first female minister, Mrs. F. Parsa, was appointed by the Shah to serve the Ministry of Education." Parsa was arrested by the new Islamic Republic in February 1980 and executed three months later.

1645 GMT: A bit of a lull as most of the Western media condense today's events to fit their agenda: 1) the approval of Cabinet should be linked to "an international dispute over Tehran's nuclear program"; 2) the Minister of Oil is a "relative novice"; 3) Iran has its first female Minister; 4) the Minister of Defense is wanted by Interpol for a 1994 attack in Argentina. (Reuters wins the prize for getting all of this into two paragraphs.)

But here's a wacky flashback from the morning (0808 GMT): remember the moment when an MP joked, ""If you say the confidence vote was rigged, we'll take you to Kahrizak [Prison, where presumably you will be abused like other detainees]!" Well, the video is now posted in a separate entry.

1240 GMT: A top reformist in the Mousavi presidential campaign, Abbas Mirza Aboutalebi, has been released from Evin Prison, almost two months after he was detained. Aboutalebi, a former MP, is the Deputy Secretary General of the Hambastegi Party..

1220 GMT: US MediaWatch on the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. The New York Times leads US media in the summary of today's developments in Parliament, "Ahmadinejad Wins Approval of Key Cabinet Slots". Michael Slackman, based in Cairo, has raised his reporting game recently, relying on the best US-based analysts, and today he picks up not only on "a victory to the beleaguered president who now has close allies overseeing key ministries of oil, interior and intelligence" but also an outcome which "appeared to serve the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameini, who has struggled recently to try to restore credibility to his tarnished leadership and government while also trying to put the brakes on Mr. Ahmadinejad’s desire to sideline conservative rivals and monopolize power".

The quick reaction of The Los Angeles Times is surprisingly weak and even misleading. The lead sentence of "Iran's hardliners united behind Mahmoud Ahmadinejad today" sweeps away tensions and nuances in the struggle for power, not only with the unhelpful "hardliner" tag and the implications that all divisions are now resolved. (Compare that with our analysis, "Those conservative and principlist MPs who have problems with the President were not prepared, in the end, to make their stand over the Cabinet....The fights, if they are to take place, will now return to the system of detentions and trials, rather than a direct clash over the Ministers overseeing them." --- see 0845 GMT.)

The Associated Press really doesn't care about the internal situation, preferring, "President Mahmoud Ahamedinejad vowed Thursday that Iran would not bend to Western deadlines for nuclear talks after his new government won broad backing from parliament."

And CNN's website? Still nothing (see 1030 GMT).

1045 GMT: Rooz Online claims, from an "informed source", that the Ministry of Intelligence has established a team "to identify the leaks and whistle blowers that led to the revelations that some of the people who had been killed in the aftermath of the June 12 disputed presidential elections were secretly buried".

1030 GMT: We've posted a separate story on how Al Jazeera English let down its usually-high standard of coverage with an example of how not to discuss the Iranian nuclear programme.

However, this slip-up is nothing compared with CNN International's continuing (non-)coverage. One of its top on-air personalties has just tweeted, "Will have more on #Iran lawmakers approving all but 3 of Ahmad's 21 cabinet nominees."

More? I could cut off nine fingers and still be ahead of the total number of words on CNN's website about the Cabinet discussions since Sunday.

1010 GMT: An EA correspondent adds information and analysis to the demand by Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a key ally of President Ahmadinejad, that Islamic Azad University be "cleaned up" so it can be "Islamic" (0520 GMT).

The Islamic Azad University was the first private university established after the Revolution and its establishment was promoted by Hashemi Rafsanjani and executed by [his brother-in-law Abdullah Jafar Ali] Jasebi, the current head of the university. The limited capacity of state-run universities caused the IAU to become an extremely lucrative cash cow, bringing Rafsajani a lot of money and influence. Nowadays almost any town with a population of more than 150,000 people has an IAU branch.

Needless to say, Ahmadinejad and company want to appropriate the revenue and influence of the IAU, and I am convinced that all the issues of "bringing the IAU back to the main path, etc." is really just a money grab. Mohammad Hashemi-Rafsanjani [brother of Hashemi Rafsanjani] and Jasebi have tried to prevent this power grab in their recent attempt to re-define the IAU as an endowment associated with a religious beneficiary, provoking the ire of Fars News and other Ahmadinejad supporters.

0930 GMT: Media Alert. Is this the beta version of Mehdi Karroubi's proposed new television station?

0925 GMT: Journalist Isa Saharkhiz, in a two-minute phone call to his family, has advised them that his detention has been extended another two months.

0915 GMT: Some Post-Vote Confusion. There were conflicting reports over whether Mohammad Aliabadi was confirmed or rejected as Minister of Energy (see 0840 GMT), but situation has now been clarified. Although the vote was in his favour 137-117, the number of Yes ballots was less than 1/2 of the total of 286 MPs. So he's out, and it's 18 of 21 Ministers confirmed.

The wider story, which we'll track down, is why Aliabadi was the only male nominee to take a fall.

0910 GMT: On Another Front. The Assembly of Combatant Clergy, have strongly condemned the recent accusations by Revolutionary Guard commander General Mohammad Ali Jafari (see yesterday's updates) that former President Khatami and other prominent reformists sought the overthrow of the Supreme Leader and the Government. The clerics said they expect the new Prosecutor General to show the "proper reaction" to these lies.

0900 GMT: Tabnak has posted a summary of the vote totals (use Google Translate for the English version).

0845 GMT: The Verdict? There will be a big smile on President Ahmadinejad's face, with 19 of 21 nominees receiving votes of confidence. The only two rejections were of women: Sussan Keshavarz (education) and Fatemeh Ajorloo (welfare). The 3rd woman, Marzieh Vahid Dastjerdi (health), was confirmed.

Interpretation? Those conservative and principlist MPs who have problems with the President were not prepared, in the end, to make their stand over the Cabinet. The two rejections are politically "safe" --- to be blunt, it will be easy to frame that as a discrimination against women, rather than a smack at Ahmadinejad, and even then, Dastjerdi (to the surprise of many, I suspect) came through. Other opportunities for rejection were by-passed, even when these could have been portrayed as doubts about individiuals, rather than a fight with the President. Mirkazemi and Aliabadi survived uncertainties over the Government's approach on energy, Mehrabian was not punished for his court scandal, and Daneshjoo's recent stumble over a suspect Ph.D. was not relevant.

Whether that was because they did not want to be seen as allied with "reformists" in blocking Ministerial choices, because of the Supreme Leader's intervention, or because tensions over Ahmadinejad's post-election actions have eased remains to be seen.

Too early, for me, to declare a reconciliation within the Establishment. My preferred interpretation is that the fights, if they are to take place, will now return to the system of detentions and trials, rather than a direct clash over the Ministers overseeing them.

0840 GMT: Nominees for Ministries of Housing, Interior, and Labour have been confirmed. The nominee for Minister of Oil, Masoud Mirkazemi, scraped through 147-117, and a similar result for Minister of Energy Mohammad Aliabadi (137-117).

0835 GMT: The nominee for Minister of Welfare, Fatemeh Ajorloo, has been rejected 181-76.

Ali Akbar Mehrabian, who has provoked some controversy after being found guilty of patent fraud in a recent court case, won approval as Minister of Mines and Industry 153-103. Similarly "Dr" Kamran Daneshjoo, despite the changing, dubious status of his Ph.D. from some British university (see separate entry), has become Minister of Science after a 186-75 vote.

0830 GMT: The nominee for Minister of Education, Sussan Keshavarz, has been rejected 209-49. Keshavarz was one of three women nominated.

Reza Taqipour has been confirmed as Minister of Communications 197-62. Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi was approved 194-67, and Minister of Economy Shamsodin Hosseini was confirmed 224-41. The current Foreign Minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, has also received a vote of confidence, as has the new Minister of Justice, Morteza Bakhtiari.

0829 GMT: The Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, began the announcement of results by thanking the Supreme Leader, whose remarks had "helped" the voting process.

0825 GMT: Parliament has voted confidence in the proposed Minister of Defence, Ahmad Vahidi.

0820 GMT: Yes, Mahmoud Did Say That. Interpret this as you will, from Iranian Labor News Agency. Ahmadinejad told the Majlis, as they prepared to vote on his Cabinet: "Parliament and government are responsible for the country and should not put this responsibility on Supreme Leader and other clerics."

Oh, yes, and "I think the members of parliament should give [foreign powers] a decisive response. A United vote to propose Cabinet is a strong punch in enemy's mouth.''

0808 GMT: Bad-Taste Parliamentary Comment of Day. One member of Parliament "joked" to a colleague, "If you say the confidence vote was rigged, we'll take you to Kahrizak [Prison, where a number of detainees have died]!" State television quickly cut the nearby microphone off.

0805 GMT: Ayande News has published more details of the purported letter from the Supreme Leader calling on members of Parliament to give a full vote of confidence in the Ahmadinejad Cabinet: Khamenei declared his desire for a Yes vote to all of the President's selections, but this was not an obligation for MPs.

0800 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi has called for investigations of alleged crimes in Kahrizak Prison and in raids against University dormitories, with punishment of those found responsible.

0745 GMT: Did The President Really Say That?: According to an activist monitoring the Parliamentary discussions, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has promised that his Cabinet will meet with MPs every two to four weeks.

Here, however, is the statement that raises eyebrows: "We should take responsibility for running country off the shoulders of Supreme Leader." Perhaps it's a change of meaning in translation --- would the President really want to push Ayatollah Khamenei to the sidelines?

0625 GMT: Another Event to Note. The "40th Day" memorial for Mohsen Ruholamini, who died in detention in Evin Prison, will be from 2-3:30 p.m. local time (1030-1200 GMT) at Vali-e Asr Mosque in Tehran.

0615 GMT: Thanks to the Internet, you can watch the live, televised coverage of state-run IRIB 1  of today's Parliamentary discussions of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet.

0520 GMT: The Parliamentary votes of confidence in President Ahmadinejad's Cabinet should finally take place today. The last two nominees to speak, Masoud Mirkazemi (oil) and Mohammad Aliabadi (energy), have presented their cases to the Majlis.

Despite the delays and dramatic stories such as the Supreme Leader's alleged letter asking for full support for Ministers, the general situation appears to be the same as on Sunday. Up to seven Ministers, and in particular the three female nominees, may not be confirmed.

Even this story, however, will be a distant second today if a rumour spread by Javan newspaper, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard, proves to have substance. The report claims that there will be an end of Ramadan "present", with leading reformists Saeed Hajjarian, Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, Mohammad Ali Abtahi,  and Mohammad Ghoochani to be released from detentions, although others such as Behzad Nabavi, Mostafa Tajzadeh, and Mohsen Aminzadeh will remain in jail. The article adds that the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, is unhappy with televised confessions and the "current trend" will be suspended.

President Ahmadinejad's religious advisor, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, is not thinking of any concessions. Instead, he has said that the private Islamic Azad University, has lost its “true way” and should be brought back to the “main path”, "clean[ing it] up" so it becomes “Islamic". (It is probably far from coincidental that Mehdi Hashemi, the son of Hashemi Rafsanjani, is one of the leading officials of the university.)

The Latest from Iran (2 September): The Votes on the Cabinet

NEW Iran: Busted! Would-be Minister of Science Rewrites His "Ph.D."
The Latest from Iran (1 September): The Ripples of Debate Continue

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2000 GMT: Here is That Split in the Judiciary. For those who don't think there is a battle going on within the establishment, take note that pro-Ahmadinejad and anti-Ahmadinejad officials are praying in separate parts of the judiciary building.

1740 GMT: Checking the Scorecard on the Nuclear Talks.

What We Predicted (1145 GMT): "The foreign policy story to watch today is not in Germany, where there will be a ritual consideration of the "5+1" powers of Iran's reported new proposal over its nuclear programme but no substantive developments (because, if Iran has really submitted a new proposal, time will be needed to examine it)."

What Happened (The Statement): "World powers pressed Iran on Wednesday to meet them for talks on its disputed nuclear program before a United Nations General Assembly meeting later this month.

Volker Stanzel, political director in the German foreign ministry, made the comments in a statement after chairing a meeting with his counterparts from Russia, China, the United States, France and Britain to discuss Iran's nuclear program."

What Happened (Translation): Nothing.

EA Scorecard: Bullseye!

1545 GMT: Another Story to Watch. We saw a report earlier today but held off pending verification. The Assembly of Members of Parliament, made up of former MPs, was due to see opposition leaders including Mohammad Khatami, Mir Hossein Mousavi, and Mehdi Karoubi at its general meeting.

The gathering was cancelled, however, after pressure from authorities, including -- according to one MP --- threatening phone calls from security forces.

Some of you may remember that last month some former MPs issued a call, invoking the Iranian Constitution, for reconsideration of the Supreme Leader's position.

1535 GMT: More on that supposed Supreme Leader letter urging MPs to confirm the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. It is being reported that one of the Ministerial nominees is circulating the letter.

1320 GMT: The reformist Parleman News has a useful summary of today's discussions of the Cabinet nominees. The headline claim is that the Supreme Leader has unofficially asked Parliament to give its approval, a step that would support our interpretation of a working Khamenei-Ahmadinejad alliance (0730 GMT) until the Cabinet is established.

1315 GMT: The Mystery of the Dismissed Ambassadors. The Iranian Foreign Ministry has downplayed the report that President Ahmadinejad has dismissed 40 ambassadors for "supporting rioters" after the elections. Spokesman Hassan Qashqavi said, "Changing the ambassadors, the heads of our overseas offices and consulates is a natural affair that happens every three years."

1310 GMT: Press TV has now posted an English-language summary of the breaking story that President Obama has sent a second letter to the Supreme Leader. It adds from Tabnak that Obama's first letter, sent four months ago, was answered: ""The Leader at the time replied to the letter by providing argumentation."

1240 GMT: The leader of the reformist bloc in Parliament, Mohammad Reza Tabesh, has responded to the claims by the commander of the Revolutionary Guard, General Mohammad Ali Jafari, that former President Khatami and other reformist leaders have tried to topple the Supreme Leader (0830 GMT). Tabesh said that the Revolutionary Guard "should be a non-partisan organization and those who gave the permision to IRGC to enter election politics, making arrests and obtain the 'confessions' should be prosecuted".

1230 GMT: Parliamentary Notes. Reuters reports that the nominee for Minister of Science, Research, and Technology, Kanesh Daneshjou, has faced criticism in the Majlis. The rumour that Daneshjou is claiming a false Ph.D. from a British university does not appear to be the problem; rather, it is his role running the Interior Ministry's election headquarters. Comments have included, "Considering the heat in the society after the presidential election, there are doubts whether the nomination of Mr. Daneshjou will help to cool down the society or whether it increases the heat," and "The question is whether the university environment will accept a renowned political and security figure like you as a scientific figure?"

1205 GMT: Another Delay. State media are now indicating, and the lack of news supports this, that votes of confidence in Parliament will be on Thursday.

1145 GMT: The Foreign Policy Story to Watch Today. It is not in Germany, where there will be a ritual consideration of the "5+1" powers of Iran's reported new proposal over its nuclear programme but no substantive developments (because, if Iran has really submitted a new proposal, time will be needed to examine it).

Instead, the story could well be in Tabnak, which is claiming that President Obama has sent a second letter to the Supreme Leader. The content is not known, but speculation is that this is another invitation to open up paths for dialogue.

Notice, however, that the path has cut out the "middle man" of President Ahadminejad and gone straight to the top.

1000 GMT: Mehdi Karoubi has written to Grand Ayatollah Montazeri expressed his deep appreciation for Montazeri's support during the post-election conflict, in particular, the Ayatollah's expressions of regret and condemnation of attacks on protestors and detainees.

0830 GMT: Piling on the Pressure. Yet more confirmation of the Ahmadinejad-Revolutionary Guard to break the opposition: the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, General Mohammad Ali Jafari, has claimed that “the unpublished section of the confessions of the prisoners” indicate that former President Mohammad Khatami and other reformist leaders were trying to topple the Supreme Leader and the regime with post-election unrest.

(The stridently pro-Government Fars News features this as their lead story.)

0730 GMT: We've had another look at the story from yesterday of behind-the-scenes meetings between Ahmadinejad representatives, pro-Government senior clerics, and MPs to ensure approval of the President's ministers. Here is the translation from the National Iranian American Council:

There have been contacts from the office of the Supreme Leader and people close to Ahmadinejad to MPs. In one case, Commander of the Armed Forces Hassan Firouzabadi called some MPs into his office.

One MP told Rouydad [newspaper]: “They have contacted Representatives and they want Representatives to approve all of the Cabinet members. Their goal is to show, through a high vote of approval of all Ministers, that their power is great and that the influence of post-election protests has been negligible.”

When asked who did the contacting, this MP said, “The contacts came from the Supreme Leader’s office and some people close to Ahmadinejad, and Maj. Gen Hassan Firouzabadi even called some Representatives into his office.”

...The decision to put pressure on MPs to approve Cabinet officials was made last week in a meeting with the presence of Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, Mehdi Taeb, Morteza Moghtadaie, and some of Ahmadinejad’s deputies and some MPs including Gholamali Haddad-Adel, Mehdi Koochakzadeh, Hamid Rasaie, Movid Hosseini-Sadr, and Kazem Mousavi, as well the heads of two pro-government newspapers.

"Contacts from the office of the Supreme Leader". Is it safe to presume that, despite the weeks of bickering between Ayatollah Khamenei and President Ahmadinejad over political and legal issues, the two will be firmly allied to ensure the Cabinet is put in place?

0555 GMT: As we noted yesterday, the internal story in Iran is likely to be pushed aside by the international media in favour of the "5+1" talks on the Iranian nuclear programme in Germany today. This coverage was assured after Iran trumpeted that it was going to be put a new proposals to the powers (the US, UK, France, China, Russia, and Germany).

A separate feature isn't needed at this point. Here's the read: the date "15 September" has been floating around as the cut-off point for US engagement with Iran. While that date has been more a creation of White House spin and media speculation rather than a policy decision, Tehran needed to do something if it wanted to release the public pressure. That need is greater because the Ahmadinejad Government --- unlike the nuke-obsessed US media --- needs to concentrate on its internal position. So the day before a major international gathering, the Iranians say, "We'll talk," but give the appearance of doing it on their terms with a supposed new package.

0545 GMT: We held off from publishing this story yesterday, as it felt --- despite its apparent publication in Fars News --- like a rumour, but it has now been repreated by several Iranian sources.

President Ahmadinejad has apparently dismissed 40 ambassadors from their posts to bring "fundamental correction in the [Foreign] Ministry". The claim is that these ambassadors supported the Green movement and dissidents abroad and will be replaced with "specialists devoted to the bases of revolution".

If true, the action is far from unprecedented: soon after his initial election in 2005, Ahmadinejad recalled Iranian ambassadors from major posts, including London and Paris. In the current context, it should be seen as part of the President's efforts to assert his control over key ministries, including the judiciary and the Ministry of Intelligence as well as Foreign Affairs.

0530 GMT: After three days of debate, the Iranian Parliament is convening this morning for its votes of confidence in President Ahmadinejad's 21 Cabinet nominees. It's still anyone's guess how many will be rejected. Estimates of up to 7 had been put about.

News from the chamber yesterday continued to be mixed for the Government. MPs accepted without reservation Ahmadinejad's selection for Minister of Defence, Ahmad Vahidi, and the nominees for Justice and Agriculture apparently escaped criticism. However, the nominee for Welfare,  Fatehmeh Ajorloo, like another proposed female Minister, Marziyeh Vahid-Dastjerdi (Health), was attacked for her lack of knowledge.