The Latest from Iran (9 September): The Stakes Are Raised

NOW POSTED Iran Analysis: Retrenching Before Friday's Prayers
Iran: Mousavi Statement on Arrests of Top Opposition Advisors
Iran: Ahmadinejad’s “All-In” Move?
Iran Urgent Analysis: Is This the Defining Showdown?
The Latest from Iran (8 September): Picking A Fight?
Iran: Ahmadinejad Chooses Confrontation Over Compromise and Governing

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2220 GMT: Did Sadegh Larijani Just Jump Behind the President (Continued)? Earlier today (1125 GMT) we noted that the head of judiciary seemed to be aiming at those who went "beyond the law" because of the "false claim" of electoral fraud. Another snippet of the interview is even more dramatic, as Larijani denounces those who have brought “great costs to the Islamic system" with their opposition.

2020 GMT: More on Ayatollahs Take a Stand? (1540 GMT) Some interesting developments from the Sunday meeting of senior clerics in Qom that we have been following. Ayatollah Golpaygani wrote a letter criticising the Ahmadinejad Cabinet; the Supreme Leader replied sharply, effectively prohibiting the Ayatollah from "interfering" in Government issues. Meanwhile, the Qom meeting has asked Grand Ayatollah Sistani, based in Najaf in Iraq, to travel to Iran for discussions and Grand Ayatollah Nouri-Hamedani has expressed regret for congratulating Ahmadinejad on his election victory.

2010 GMT: Report that Sadegh Noroozi, head of political council of the Mojahedin-Enghelab party, has been released.

1850 GMT: Bemoans?! Our friends at Press TV show their respect for the Mousavi statement: "Mousavi bemoans arrest of top aides, urges calm".

1840 GMT: Remember our emerging assessment that the biggest challenge for President Ahmadinejad may be governing Iran, especially handling the economy, rather than confronting the opposition? This from Press TV: "The value of Iran's oil products exports has plunged by 51 percentage points in the first half of the current Iranian year due to the global economic downturn."

1815 GMT: A Correction. We reported earlier (0920 GMT) that Emadeddine Baghi, head of the Association for the Defense of Prisoners, was arrested yesterday. In fact, there has been no confirmation of Baghi's arrest although the Association's offices were shut down.

1810 GMT: Quick! Look Over There! I suspect international media will be absorbed by this story, rather than any international developments in Iran, until the Supreme Leader's speech on Friday. From Press TV: "Amid international calls on Iran to engage the West over its nuclear program, the country presents the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany with its latest package of proposals to tackle global issues."

1800 GMT: CNNFail/TwitterSuccess. I know, I risk being repetitive but this exchange, over the arrest of Alireza Beheshti, has to be noted to be believed:

(1330 GMT) verypissedoff: Why are CNN & ABC silent? #iranelection Reuters: Ally of Iran's Mousavi detained
[The Reuters story was posted at 1251 GMT. Enduring America ran it as an urgent update, following Twitter to the Mowj-e-Sabz website, at 1945 GMT on Wednesday.]

(1655 GMT) rosemaryCNN Reuters: Ally of Iran's Mousavi detained, website says

Despite the fact that Rosemary Church, one of CNN's anchors, finally acknowledged the story almost 24 hours after it happened, CNN's website still has no reference to the far-from-minor development.

This is in no way a slapdown of Rosemary Church, who does good work and has used Twitter (unlike others in the media) to interact with others rather than for self-promotion of her and her network. However, based on the last 72 hours, let alone the last three months, I will take my stand against anyone who says Twitter is merely a diversion which should be set aside in the work of "real" journalists.

1540 GMT: Ayatollahs Taking a Stand? We reported on Monday about a meeting in Qom of several Grand Ayatollahs and senior clerics including, Ayatollahs Golpaygani, Makarem-Shirazi, Bayat-Zanjani, Montazeri, and Mousavi-Ardebili, on “practical steps against the coup government”. Now the Green movement's website, Mowj-e-Sabz, is reporting that the clerics are pressing their challenge against an "illegitimate" government, including its selection of female ministers, despite an attempt by the Supreme Leader through Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi to check the opposition.

1420 GMT: We have posted a translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement on the arrest of Mousavi and Karroubi advisors in a separate entry.

1400 GMT: Another Arrest. In addition to the detentions on Tuesday of Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti, Karroubi advisor Morteza Alviri, Etemade Melli website editor Mohammad Davari, security forces arrested Mohammad Ozlati-Moqaddam, a former IRGC commander and head of the veteran’s faction of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s campaign, at his home.

Ozlati-Moqaddam, who formerly served in the IRGC political bureau alongside Hossein Shariatmadari and Hossein Safar-Harandi, was arrested on Tuesday.

1330 GMT: A slow period has been broken by the latest statement from Mir Hossein Mousavi. Condemning the arrests of Alireza Beheshti, his top advisor, and Mortreza Alviri, Mehdi Karroubi’s top advisor, he warns people that “more difficult” days are on the way and advising them to be calm and remain careful and alert. At the same time, Mousavi is asking them to not be intimidated by "the coup government", as the regime's "pathetic acts" are doomed to fail like their previous efforts.

1140 GMT: Hours before he was arrested yesterday, Mehdi Karroubi's aide Morteza Alviri, who was also a member of the Karroubi-Mousavi committees investigating detentions, gave an interview to Rooz Online (translation by HomyLafayette):

The regime's actions have pushed political activity out of parties and into homes and within the population....Silence is not acquiescence. There is a bomb within the hearts of the people, and it can explode at any time....I still believe that fraud took place in the election. The country is in a state of martial law.

1125 GMT: Did Sadegh Larijani Just Jump Behind the President? The head of Iran's judiciary has said that the "false claim" of election fraud led some people to go "beyond the law", adding, "The life of our social system is dependent on law enforcement."

Larijani was vague beyond this, for example, on detentions and trials, but I wonder if the statement could be read as implicit acceptance of the Ahmadinejad line.

1040 GMT: It's All about Us (outside Iran). The perils of an attention span which is all about what Iran means for "us" rather than what is happening inside Iran is all too clear in Simon Tisdall's blunt statement today in The Guardian of London: "If anyone still wonders what happened to the Iranian revolution of 2009, the answer is: the hardliners won."

Even a quick glance at EA's analyses, and those of other sites like Anonymous Iran and Keeping the Change, complicates Tisdall's assertions. Who exactly are his "hardliners"? Ahmadinejad? The Revolutionary Guard? The Supreme Leader? All of the above? And has the opposition just evaporated in the face of measures such as yesterday's raids?

These are trifles, however, because Tisdall is not really concerned with anything beyond a superficial reference to the internal situation. His focus is "the difficulties inherent in dealing with Tehran". Nuclear programme. Sanctions. "Soft power". All of which leads him into the cul-de-sac:

One is to admit the Israelis may be right in arguing that military action is the only sure way to hinder or stop Iran's nuclear advances. The other is to do nothing – and hope that Iran's repeated assurances that it does not seek the atom bomb are true.

As bleak as the picture may be in Iran after the last 48 hours, it's far better than this simplifying of "our" options by reducing the Iranian people to bystanders and pawns.

0920 GMT: A Far-from-Incidental Note. The Mousavi-led Committee for the Tracking of Prisoners and Mehdi Karroubi's operations were not the only organisations targeted in the last 48 hours. Emadeddine Baghi, head of the Association for the Defense of Prisoners, was also arrested yesterday. Baghi's office was searched and documents and equipment were taken by security forces.

0825 GMT: MediaWatch. Both New York Times and Washington Post have articles on yesterday's raid of Karroubi offices, although they only briefly mention the later arrest of Alireza Beheshti. The Los Angeles Times, normally in the lead of US-based coverage, get tangled up: anxious to feature their journalistic coup of an interview with Mehdi Karroubi, they reduce news of the raids and arrests of his staff to an insert paragraph.

CNN, continuing its poor coverage even as its correspondents pile onto Twitter to promote themselves, do not notice the Beheshti arrest. Al Jazeera also misses the Beheshti news, however, and the BBC, however, is even worse: distracted by Iran's promotional claim that it is submitting proposals on its nuclear programme today, they see nothing at all inside Iran.

0820 GMT: It appears that, with its offices raided and its editor-in-chief arrested, the Etemade Melli website (which includes Saham News) is suspended. There have been no new posts since 3:25 p.m. local time yesterday.

0800 GMT: The Mousavi response to the raid on their office and later arrest of chief advisor Alireza Beheshti? This was posted three hours ago on Facebook: "Coup gov.! We R the Media & wont let our leaders be taken hostage silently.Go Green & Bring #iranelection back on top:World will be watching /"

0750 GMT: Almost lost in yesterday's chaos was the statement of the commander of the Navy of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, Rear Admiral Morteza Saffari, pressing the foreign-led "soft war" pretext: “Iran's great territory, population, military might, and unique geographical location in the Middle East have turned it into a strong power, and political experts in Western countries know that they cannot overwhelm Iran by launching a military attack or hard war."

Saffari claimed that a “media war” had stirred up “civil disobedience”, asserting, “The US strategy to confront the Islamic Republic of Iran is based on soft measures," even as it continues threats to launch a military attack.

The rhetoric is far from new, of course. What is significant is how the IRGC is pushing it less than a week after the Supreme Leader denied that foreign powers were able to pursue their "soft war" because of the strength of the Iranian system.

0730 GMT: It looks like folks in Iran are picking up the pieces from yesterday's dramatic events, so we've spent the time on a detailed analysis, "Ahmadinejad's 'All-In' Move", considering the significance of the raids and arrests. Our easier conclusion is that this is an attempt to break the Green movement and back down Hashemi Rafsanjani. The tricker reading is whether the President and Revolutionary Guard have done this as an assertion of authority against the Supreme Leader. We'll be debating this throughout the day (and beyond) and welcome your comments and ideas.

Josh Shahryar is also working on an analysis for a high-profile publication; we'll keep you posted on when it appears. Meanwhile, his latest "Green Brief" summarising Tuesday's events is out.

The Latest from Iran (8 September): Picking A Fight?

NEW Iran Urgent Analysis: Is This the Defining Showdown?
Iran: Ahmadinejad Chooses Confrontation Over Compromise and Governing
UPDATED Iran: Mousavi HQ Raided by Security Forces
Iran: Green Wave Resurgent?
The Latest from Iran (7 September): Countdown to 18 September Begins

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2020 GMT: One to Watch. The last posting on the Etemade Melli (Saham News) website, a full report on Mehdi Karroubi's Eftar dinner party for the employees of the Etemade Melli newspaper), went up at 1:10 p.m. Tehran time (0840 GMT).

2015 GMT: In the midst of developments, this from Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani's address to members of a reformist faction earlier today (1510 GMT): "Power is not the foundation of legitimacy; rather legitimacy is the foundation of power. Some think that by playing with words they can change this."

1945 GMT: I don't think we realised this morning, when we chose the title for the updates, how appropriate the question would be.

Cross-posted from our emergency analysis, "Is This A Defining Showdown?": "Just after 1800 GMT, Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor, Alireza Beheshti, was arrested. (We held off posting until this was confirmed in a reliable source.) The only step up from this action is the arrest of leaders such as Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi."

So far no Western media outlet, to our knowledge, has picked up on the story.

1855 GMT: "New" v. Mainstream Media.

Report of raid on Mehdi Karroubi's office on Enduring America: 1340 GMT.

Emergency analysis of raid on Karroubi office on Enduring America: 1415 GMT.

1st report of raid on CNN's website: 1743 GMT.

1845 GMT: Press TV's website has acknowledged the raid on Karroubi's office with an account lifted word-for-word from the report in Parleman News (see 1340 GMT).

1710 GMT: A Revolutionary Guard official has said that the recent comments of IRGC Commander Mohammad Ali Jafari, claiming that former President Khatami and other reformists seek to "unseat" the regime, are "backed by evidence" given to Iran's judiciary which the IRGC is willing to publish.

1700 GMT: Radio Farda reports that Ayatollah Javadi-Amoli has expressed his intention to carry on the work of the Committee for the Tracking of Prisoners, whose offices were raided yesterday.

1555 GMT: The family of the late Ayatollah Taleghani, whose memorial ceremony was blocked by the Government for the first time since his death in 1979, have announced an alternative site for the gathering.

1510 GMT: Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, speaking to reformists, has claimed that the headquarters of the Supreme Leader no longer have any shame before God or people.

1420 GMT: We have posted an emergency analysis, "Is This the Defining Showdown?"

1350 GMT: Reuters has an English-language summary of the raid on the Karroubi offices.

1340 GMT: URGENT Mehdi Karroubi's office has been raided by security forces on the orders of Tehran's chief prosecutor. CDs, documents, videos, and computers have been seized.

The editor-in-chief of Etemade Melli website, Mohammad Davari, has been arrested. Karroubi aide Morteza Alviri was arrested at his home. An Etemade Melli party spokesman said Karroubi had been escorted out of his office by the security forces.

1335 GMT: A source on the National Security Council has told Norooz that President Ahmadinejad ordered yesterday's raid on the offices of the Committee for the Tracking of Prisoners.

1320 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi (pictured) has issued another statement via an interview in Saham News. Following up his weekend comments on the investigation of detainee abuse, he said false accusations, such as the report of an arrest warrant for his son over a financial dispute, are threats to silence him.

Karroubi emphasised that he will not give up defending people’s rights, urging people to join him in the Qods Day demonstration on 18 September.

1235 GMT: Make That a Triple Signal. Farhad Tajari, a member of the Parliamentary committee investigating detentinons, has said, "Members of this committee had some criticisms over the conduct of trials of detainees accused of being linked to the recent unrest. One of the points we stressed during the meeting was to immediately release those detainees who did not have big roles in the unrest."

1205 GMT: A Double Signal? Press TV is featuring two articles on post-election conflict. Neither of the developments are new, so it's their timing of their re-appearance that raises eyebrows.

This morning, Press TV reported, from State television, "Iranian authorities say they have launched an investigation into public complaints regarding the post-election unrest, with a focus on charges of prisoner abuse. The Supreme National Security Council has formed a committee to look into the cases of those who sustained losses of any kind after the June 12 presidential elections."

Since a Parliamentary committee was set up weeks ago to consider the allegations, this is far from an unprecedented development. However, the move from the legislature to the Executive, with the NSC's involvement, is at least a symbolic step up. Add to that the specific focus of Press TV's article, which is line with the Supreme Leader's public statements, "The officials are investigating the charges of mistreatment made by a number of detainees who were held at the Kahrizak detention center." (Pay attention also to the highlighting of the death of Mohsen Ruholamini, which prompted so much conservative and principlist fury with the Government.)

Two hours later, Press TV posted the statement of the Governor-General of Tehran Province, Morteza Tamaddon, from Fars News: "A panel has been formed in Iran's Supreme National Security Council which is closely looking into events that unfolded in a Tehran University dormitory….The investigation will be seriously conducted to reach a final result."

Previously, Tamaddon has been notable for tough talk against protestors. This statement brings him in line with the position taken by Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani within two weeks of the 12 June election.

So are we seeing, 72 hours before the Supreme Leader's Friday Prayers address, a convergence around specific investigations? This would give at least a token acknowledgement of claims brought by the opposition, while at the same time emphasizing the need for "unity" and "observance of the law". It would bring together Ayatollah Khamenei, the Larijanis (Ali and head of judiciary Sadegh), key figures in Parliament and senior clerics, and maybe Hashemi Rafsanjani?

And, if this is the case, has President Ahmadinejad been told?

1105 GMT: Stopping the Gatherings. The Government has withheld permission for the memorial ceremony for the late Ayatollah Taleghani, a key figure in the Revolution who died in 1979. According to Taleghani's daughter, this is the first time in 30 years that a permit has been denied.

The obvious explanation is that the regime, which has cancelled other Ramadan ceremonies including those at Ayatollah Khomeini's shrine, is fearful of any occasion where people can gather and express opposition.

1005 GMT: President Ahmadinejad has withdrawn his "replacement" nominations of Fatemeh Aliya as Minister of Education and Ali Zabihi as Minister of Energy. The original nominees were rejected last Thursday.

0950 GMT: It Just Got Interesting. Fars News reports that the Supreme Leader will lead this Friday's prayers in Tehran.

No further details but look for Ayatollah Khamenei to try and pre-empt the Green movement's plans for Qods Days demonstrations the following Friday, possibly in combination with prayers led by Hashemi Rafsanjani. The Supreme Leader will do that by calling for "unity" and, while acknowledging that the Government needs to serve the people, upholding the system.

Two questions: 1) if this is indeed Khamenei's speech, are he and Rafsanjani finding common ground?; 2) will the Supreme Leader cross the line and issue threats against opposition leaders?.

If the answer to 1) is Yes, then we may be seeing an alignment trying to resolve the crisis. If the answer to 2), then the conflict continues.

Meanwhile, the head of Iran's police, Brigadier General Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, has warned against demonstrations "politicising" Qods Day. (Big thanks to reader Ali for pointing us to both these stories.)

0915 GMT: Larijani's Manoeuvre. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has positioned himself behind yesterday's call by the Supreme Leader for the Government to heed "benevolent criticism": ''In uncertain situations we should take advantage of Supreme Leader's advice and thoughts''. What may be more interesting is the possibility that he is converging with Hashemi Rafsanjani's call for unity, ''All governments and societies have differences in ideology, strategy and tactics. Prejudgment is a trap for pluralism which should be avoided in current situation."

And, if I read this right, Larijani is calling for the opposition to back down from its challenge to the legitimacy of the Government over detentions and trials: "If we want to solve differences we should all follow the Law even if it may have defects."

0840 GMT: Josh Shahryar's "Green Brief" roundup of Monday's developments is now posted.

0715 GMT: The Detentions Issue. One of the important political dances right now is that between the three-member judiciary panel and Mehdi Karroubi, as he sets out the claims of detainee abuse. We didn't give this justice on Saturday, so are picking up now. Karroubi said:
"I offered [the panel] three documents at [Friday's] meeting. The first was a video statement by the individual who has gone missing because of threats issued by the representative of Judge Saeed Mortazavi. My second document was about the [sexual] assault of a woman. The third was a document about one man who was subjected to various calamities after his arrest and I offered a CD and the medical examiner’s report on him as well. In that session I also offered two verbal reports as well."

One of the [verbal] reports was about Taraneh Mousavi….I told them her family [is so scared] after the incident that they refuse to even let the girl who was with their daughter on that day [when she was taken] into their home anymore… [I told them] that you, as the officials of this country, must visit the family yourselves and find out the truth of matter….Go to Karaj city’s Imam Khomeini Hospital and seek the doctor’s opinion about the injuries on this girl’s body.

The case of Mousavi, raped and killed in detention, has raced around the Internet, with rumours as to who might have been responsible and why the incident has been covered up.

On a wider front, however, this is a political showdown. Karroubi had agreed with the panel not to reveal any details of discussions, but one of the members, Deputy Judiciary Head Ebrahim Raeesi, told the press that Karroubi had not presented any evidence for his accusations. It was then that the reformist cleric broke his silence.

We await the next developments.

0650 GMT: We've spent this morning on a special analysis of President Ahmadinejad's latest political strategy, which seems to consist of shoving around his opponents as "dust" and "contaminants", and the tension that it might have caused within the regime.

That tough approach is evident in two other developing stories. We've got new information and analysis on last night's raid on the offices of the Committee for the Tracking of Prisoners, run by Mir Hossein Mousavi's staff. And today the Government is pushing ahead with its public display of strength against the opposition, putting three prominent reformist detainees --- Saeed Hajjarian, Mohammad Atrianfar, and Saeed Shariati --- on television for a "roundtable" confessing the errors of their political activity. The showpiece is part of the campaign to control discussion and activity at Iranian institutions, as the trio discuss the "promotion of pathology at the University of Western humanities, and the social and political consequences that come from following elites and political activists and Western ideas".

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2030 GMT: No Criticism Here. Press TV's website writes out the admonition of the Supreme Leader to President Ahmadinejad and the Cabinet to take heed of "benevolent criticism" (see 1830 GMT). Instead the report emphasizes Ayatollah Khamenei's declaration about the legitimacy established by the election, “The nation and the Islamic Revolution have proven their republican nature. If officials, elites and political experts understand this fact, many of the country's problems will be resolved."

1930 GMT: Is the Regime Targeting Leaders' Children? That's the question asked by one of our readers, who noticed the arrest of Atefeh Emam, the 18-year old daughter of Mir Hossein Mousavi's Chief of Staff, Javad Emam, who is still detained himself. She was reportedly released earlier today, after 24 hours of continuous interrogation, near a Tehran cemetery.

Earlier in the crisis, the regime arrested several members of the family of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, and pressure has been placed this week on the son of Mehdi Karroubi.

1830 GMT: Khamenei Manoeuvres. In a line which is not that far from the "conservative" Society of Militant Clergy criticism of the President, the Supreme Leader has advised Ahmadinejad and his Cabinet: "There is internal criticism backed by foreign media with the aim of sabotage but there is also benevolent criticism which may not come from supporters of the government but they contain good comments."

1710 GMT: Clerics Warn Ahmadinejad. The reformist Association of Teachers and Researchers of Qom have issued a statement warning that the regime cannot be maintained with military force, arrests, and brutality.

More intriguing, however, may be a finger-wagging at the President from the "conservative" Society of Militant Clergy, their first intervention in the post-election crisis:

We ask the president and the government to seriously try to solve people’s problems and the country’s economic and social issues, and avoid talking about unnecessary and provocative issues. The comments made and the disrespect committed in the debates, speeches and rallies before and after the election caused divergence.

The Society criticised the opposition for pursuing demands "outside law", but it also called for "consoling" those harmed in the unrest.

Possibly Relevant Fact: One of the members of the Society is former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.

1645 GMT: A Norooz News article, featured on Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook page, says that:

"Security Forces attacked the Staff office of Mir Hossein Mousavi which was resposible for following the issues of the detainees, without any legal premisson. All documentations were confiscated and taken out to... an unknown destination. As Staff members asked for receipt, security forces answered that no documents will be given back, thus there will be no receipt !!"

(Thanks to Mike Dunn for covering, as I was stuck in traffic when this came through. We have posted as a separate entry, cleaning up some of the text and adding a brief analysis.)

1430 GMT: We've been watching since reports came in yesterday of a meeting in Qom between Grand Ayatollahs Golpaygani and Makarem-Shirazi. Now the website of the Green movement, Mowj-e-Sabz, is reporting that there were several Grand Ayatollahs and senior clerics, including Bayat-Zanjani, Montazeri, and Mousavi-Ardebili, in the discussion of "practical steps against the coup government", after receving letters from political and social activists.

1340 GMT: Fars News reports that Press TV will soon air a "roundtable" of detainees Saeed Hajjarian, Mohammad Atrianfar, and Saeed Shariati on the causes of their "change of attitude and intellectual development".

1130 GMT: We're here but it is a very slow day, with little breaking on the political front.

There is one story that catches the eye. According to Tehran Bureau, via a source, the revelations of the abuses of detainees in Kahrizak Prison cames from a photographer for the Supreme Leader.

The well-known documentary maker and photojournalist, who recorded the eight-year Iraq-Iran war and became a ‘Sacred Defense’ photographer, was arrested during the post-election unrest and taken to Kahrizak where he was abused and tortured. After his release, he informed Ayatollah Khamenei about jail rapes and prisoner abuse. When the Supreme Leader expressed disbelief, the man revealed that he was one of the victims: "What they did was inhumane and in violation of all human rights… When they did those things to me, in my eyes it was you who was doing them."

Soon after this, Khamenei ordered the closure of the notorious detention center.

(The photojournalist was one of the cameramen who made Mir Hossein Mousavi’s campaign films, although it is unclear if they played any part in his arrest. He has also worked on a documentary about Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.)

0850 GMT: If the BBC was paying attention, rather than trotting along with the notion of Iran's Nuclear Programme Above All Else (see 0820 GMT), it might have noticed these comments from President Ahmadinejad in his press conference, directed at the opposition movement:

The election and post-election events was victory of Iranian nation's morality against immoralities. The other victory of Iranian nation was success in removing contamination from Revolution.

0840 GMT: Rafsanjani Speaks. A small amendment to the end of today's analysis, "The large presence of Hashemi Rafsanjani has disappeared." The former President said, at a ceremony to commemorate Ayatollah Ali Qoddousi, Iran's prosecutor general who was killed by Mujahedin-e-Khalq Organization (MKO) in 1981:

It is a vital need of the Islamic Republic and establishment to find a way to strengthen national unity and establish peace in the country. In the recent events, the sides should act in a way which will guarantee national unity.

Small amendment, indeed, as the statement just repeats Rafsanjani's cautious, hold-the-line comments that we evaluated in mid-August.

0820 GMT: MediaWatch. The New York Times does another good job this morning, picking up on the Khatami statement and Mousavi letter (though missing Karroubi's moves) that we've highlighted all weekend and in today's analysis. The Washington Post also mention Khatami and Mousavi but hide the impact by tucking them away under a headline on an older story, "Iran Canceling Major Ramadan Events in Wake of Election Protests".

CNN are nowhere to be found, preferring to go with "Chavez Pledges Closer Ties with Iran". Al Jazeera also gets distracted by the Venezuela dimension. Even worse at the BBC, which falls for the Iranian President's "Look Over There!" trick, "Tehran 'ready for global talks'".

0800 GMT: We heard about this story all day yesterday and are keeping a close eye on it (any information would be welcomed):

A group of Revolutionary Guards have resigned from the force according to Hosein Hashemian, an Iranian lawmaker. Mr. Hashemian told Parleman News Website that the unacceptable interference of the Revolutionary Guards in political matters has caused a rift in the force.

The story of resignations, including those of unit commanders, has been about since the start of the crisis, and more than 30 Islamic Revolution Guard Corps members have been arrested.

However, at this point without further confirmation, I am treating this as a bit of "psychological warfare" from the opposition to unsettle the Government. In particular, it is part of the fightback against the recent statements of the Revolutionary Guard's chief commander, General Mohammad Ali Jafari (see our separate analysis today): Hashemian called for Jafari to be detained for his claim that former President Khatami and other reformists were trying to "unseat" the regime.

0655 GMT: We've spent the morning on two special pieces. First and foremost, Josh Shahryar of Anonymous Iran's "The Green Brief" has spent hours translating into English, from the list provided by the Iranian website Norooz,  the names and descriptions of 72 people killed in post-election violence. Given that regime figures like high-ranking member of Parliament Alaeddin Boroujerdi have been trying to deny there is any evidence for the deaths, we think this is a vital document of record.

The second piece is an analysis, after a weekend of opposition statements, of the current political situation and the question of whether the Green Wave is moving towards a high-profile display of resistance on Qods Day, 18 September.

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1835 GMT: A reader writes to clarify the "first woman" Minister reference in the Reuters report (1645 GMT), and just now repeated by a CNN reporter: "Iran's first female minister, Mrs. F. Parsa, was appointed by the Shah to serve the Ministry of Education." Parsa was arrested by the new Islamic Republic in February 1980 and executed three months later.

1645 GMT: A bit of a lull as most of the Western media condense today's events to fit their agenda: 1) the approval of Cabinet should be linked to "an international dispute over Tehran's nuclear program"; 2) the Minister of Oil is a "relative novice"; 3) Iran has its first female Minister; 4) the Minister of Defense is wanted by Interpol for a 1994 attack in Argentina. (Reuters wins the prize for getting all of this into two paragraphs.)

But here's a wacky flashback from the morning (0808 GMT): remember the moment when an MP joked, ""If you say the confidence vote was rigged, we'll take you to Kahrizak [Prison, where presumably you will be abused like other detainees]!" Well, the video is now posted in a separate entry.

1240 GMT: A top reformist in the Mousavi presidential campaign, Abbas Mirza Aboutalebi, has been released from Evin Prison, almost two months after he was detained. Aboutalebi, a former MP, is the Deputy Secretary General of the Hambastegi Party..

1220 GMT: US MediaWatch on the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. The New York Times leads US media in the summary of today's developments in Parliament, "Ahmadinejad Wins Approval of Key Cabinet Slots". Michael Slackman, based in Cairo, has raised his reporting game recently, relying on the best US-based analysts, and today he picks up not only on "a victory to the beleaguered president who now has close allies overseeing key ministries of oil, interior and intelligence" but also an outcome which "appeared to serve the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameini, who has struggled recently to try to restore credibility to his tarnished leadership and government while also trying to put the brakes on Mr. Ahmadinejad’s desire to sideline conservative rivals and monopolize power".

The quick reaction of The Los Angeles Times is surprisingly weak and even misleading. The lead sentence of "Iran's hardliners united behind Mahmoud Ahmadinejad today" sweeps away tensions and nuances in the struggle for power, not only with the unhelpful "hardliner" tag and the implications that all divisions are now resolved. (Compare that with our analysis, "Those conservative and principlist MPs who have problems with the President were not prepared, in the end, to make their stand over the Cabinet....The fights, if they are to take place, will now return to the system of detentions and trials, rather than a direct clash over the Ministers overseeing them." --- see 0845 GMT.)

The Associated Press really doesn't care about the internal situation, preferring, "President Mahmoud Ahamedinejad vowed Thursday that Iran would not bend to Western deadlines for nuclear talks after his new government won broad backing from parliament."

And CNN's website? Still nothing (see 1030 GMT).

1045 GMT: Rooz Online claims, from an "informed source", that the Ministry of Intelligence has established a team "to identify the leaks and whistle blowers that led to the revelations that some of the people who had been killed in the aftermath of the June 12 disputed presidential elections were secretly buried".

1030 GMT: We've posted a separate story on how Al Jazeera English let down its usually-high standard of coverage with an example of how not to discuss the Iranian nuclear programme.

However, this slip-up is nothing compared with CNN International's continuing (non-)coverage. One of its top on-air personalties has just tweeted, "Will have more on #Iran lawmakers approving all but 3 of Ahmad's 21 cabinet nominees."

More? I could cut off nine fingers and still be ahead of the total number of words on CNN's website about the Cabinet discussions since Sunday.

1010 GMT: An EA correspondent adds information and analysis to the demand by Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a key ally of President Ahmadinejad, that Islamic Azad University be "cleaned up" so it can be "Islamic" (0520 GMT).

The Islamic Azad University was the first private university established after the Revolution and its establishment was promoted by Hashemi Rafsanjani and executed by [his brother-in-law Abdullah Jafar Ali] Jasebi, the current head of the university. The limited capacity of state-run universities caused the IAU to become an extremely lucrative cash cow, bringing Rafsajani a lot of money and influence. Nowadays almost any town with a population of more than 150,000 people has an IAU branch.

Needless to say, Ahmadinejad and company want to appropriate the revenue and influence of the IAU, and I am convinced that all the issues of "bringing the IAU back to the main path, etc." is really just a money grab. Mohammad Hashemi-Rafsanjani [brother of Hashemi Rafsanjani] and Jasebi have tried to prevent this power grab in their recent attempt to re-define the IAU as an endowment associated with a religious beneficiary, provoking the ire of Fars News and other Ahmadinejad supporters.

0930 GMT: Media Alert. Is this the beta version of Mehdi Karroubi's proposed new television station?

0925 GMT: Journalist Isa Saharkhiz, in a two-minute phone call to his family, has advised them that his detention has been extended another two months.

0915 GMT: Some Post-Vote Confusion. There were conflicting reports over whether Mohammad Aliabadi was confirmed or rejected as Minister of Energy (see 0840 GMT), but situation has now been clarified. Although the vote was in his favour 137-117, the number of Yes ballots was less than 1/2 of the total of 286 MPs. So he's out, and it's 18 of 21 Ministers confirmed.

The wider story, which we'll track down, is why Aliabadi was the only male nominee to take a fall.

0910 GMT: On Another Front. The Assembly of Combatant Clergy, have strongly condemned the recent accusations by Revolutionary Guard commander General Mohammad Ali Jafari (see yesterday's updates) that former President Khatami and other prominent reformists sought the overthrow of the Supreme Leader and the Government. The clerics said they expect the new Prosecutor General to show the "proper reaction" to these lies.

0900 GMT: Tabnak has posted a summary of the vote totals (use Google Translate for the English version).

0845 GMT: The Verdict? There will be a big smile on President Ahmadinejad's face, with 19 of 21 nominees receiving votes of confidence. The only two rejections were of women: Sussan Keshavarz (education) and Fatemeh Ajorloo (welfare). The 3rd woman, Marzieh Vahid Dastjerdi (health), was confirmed.

Interpretation? Those conservative and principlist MPs who have problems with the President were not prepared, in the end, to make their stand over the Cabinet. The two rejections are politically "safe" --- to be blunt, it will be easy to frame that as a discrimination against women, rather than a smack at Ahmadinejad, and even then, Dastjerdi (to the surprise of many, I suspect) came through. Other opportunities for rejection were by-passed, even when these could have been portrayed as doubts about individiuals, rather than a fight with the President. Mirkazemi and Aliabadi survived uncertainties over the Government's approach on energy, Mehrabian was not punished for his court scandal, and Daneshjoo's recent stumble over a suspect Ph.D. was not relevant.

Whether that was because they did not want to be seen as allied with "reformists" in blocking Ministerial choices, because of the Supreme Leader's intervention, or because tensions over Ahmadinejad's post-election actions have eased remains to be seen.

Too early, for me, to declare a reconciliation within the Establishment. My preferred interpretation is that the fights, if they are to take place, will now return to the system of detentions and trials, rather than a direct clash over the Ministers overseeing them.

0840 GMT: Nominees for Ministries of Housing, Interior, and Labour have been confirmed. The nominee for Minister of Oil, Masoud Mirkazemi, scraped through 147-117, and a similar result for Minister of Energy Mohammad Aliabadi (137-117).

0835 GMT: The nominee for Minister of Welfare, Fatemeh Ajorloo, has been rejected 181-76.

Ali Akbar Mehrabian, who has provoked some controversy after being found guilty of patent fraud in a recent court case, won approval as Minister of Mines and Industry 153-103. Similarly "Dr" Kamran Daneshjoo, despite the changing, dubious status of his Ph.D. from some British university (see separate entry), has become Minister of Science after a 186-75 vote.

0830 GMT: The nominee for Minister of Education, Sussan Keshavarz, has been rejected 209-49. Keshavarz was one of three women nominated.

Reza Taqipour has been confirmed as Minister of Communications 197-62. Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi was approved 194-67, and Minister of Economy Shamsodin Hosseini was confirmed 224-41. The current Foreign Minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, has also received a vote of confidence, as has the new Minister of Justice, Morteza Bakhtiari.

0829 GMT: The Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, began the announcement of results by thanking the Supreme Leader, whose remarks had "helped" the voting process.

0825 GMT: Parliament has voted confidence in the proposed Minister of Defence, Ahmad Vahidi.

0820 GMT: Yes, Mahmoud Did Say That. Interpret this as you will, from Iranian Labor News Agency. Ahmadinejad told the Majlis, as they prepared to vote on his Cabinet: "Parliament and government are responsible for the country and should not put this responsibility on Supreme Leader and other clerics."

Oh, yes, and "I think the members of parliament should give [foreign powers] a decisive response. A United vote to propose Cabinet is a strong punch in enemy's mouth.''

0808 GMT: Bad-Taste Parliamentary Comment of Day. One member of Parliament "joked" to a colleague, "If you say the confidence vote was rigged, we'll take you to Kahrizak [Prison, where a number of detainees have died]!" State television quickly cut the nearby microphone off.

0805 GMT: Ayande News has published more details of the purported letter from the Supreme Leader calling on members of Parliament to give a full vote of confidence in the Ahmadinejad Cabinet: Khamenei declared his desire for a Yes vote to all of the President's selections, but this was not an obligation for MPs.

0800 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi has called for investigations of alleged crimes in Kahrizak Prison and in raids against University dormitories, with punishment of those found responsible.

0745 GMT: Did The President Really Say That?: According to an activist monitoring the Parliamentary discussions, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has promised that his Cabinet will meet with MPs every two to four weeks.

Here, however, is the statement that raises eyebrows: "We should take responsibility for running country off the shoulders of Supreme Leader." Perhaps it's a change of meaning in translation --- would the President really want to push Ayatollah Khamenei to the sidelines?

0625 GMT: Another Event to Note. The "40th Day" memorial for Mohsen Ruholamini, who died in detention in Evin Prison, will be from 2-3:30 p.m. local time (1030-1200 GMT) at Vali-e Asr Mosque in Tehran.

0615 GMT: Thanks to the Internet, you can watch the live, televised coverage of state-run IRIB 1  of today's Parliamentary discussions of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet.

0520 GMT: The Parliamentary votes of confidence in President Ahmadinejad's Cabinet should finally take place today. The last two nominees to speak, Masoud Mirkazemi (oil) and Mohammad Aliabadi (energy), have presented their cases to the Majlis.

Despite the delays and dramatic stories such as the Supreme Leader's alleged letter asking for full support for Ministers, the general situation appears to be the same as on Sunday. Up to seven Ministers, and in particular the three female nominees, may not be confirmed.

Even this story, however, will be a distant second today if a rumour spread by Javan newspaper, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard, proves to have substance. The report claims that there will be an end of Ramadan "present", with leading reformists Saeed Hajjarian, Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, Mohammad Ali Abtahi,  and Mohammad Ghoochani to be released from detentions, although others such as Behzad Nabavi, Mostafa Tajzadeh, and Mohsen Aminzadeh will remain in jail. The article adds that the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, is unhappy with televised confessions and the "current trend" will be suspended.

President Ahmadinejad's religious advisor, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, is not thinking of any concessions. Instead, he has said that the private Islamic Azad University, has lost its “true way” and should be brought back to the “main path”, "clean[ing it] up" so it becomes “Islamic". (It is probably far from coincidental that Mehdi Hashemi, the son of Hashemi Rafsanjani, is one of the leading officials of the university.)