Gaza Latest (13 June): Rumblings of the Next Flotilla

1400 GMT: Mahmoud Abbas denied that he had asked Obama to prevent the lifting of the naval blockade on Gaza. However, Netanyahu, during a meeting of Likud ministers, said that he supports easing the three-year blockade Israel has imposed on the Gaza Strip, but that he would not approve the lifting of the naval blockade.

1315 GMT: U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice has said there should be international participation in Israel's investigation into its raid of the flotilla. Israel's vice premier Dan Merridor replied: "There will be international elements in the commission which is going to be formed. For the moment it is not totally clear but the commission will be composed of five Israelis and two or three foreigners."

1245 GMT: Nabila Abu Rdineh, spokesman for Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas, said in an interview with local newspaper al-Ayyam, that an international mechanism to end the blockade imposed on the Gaza Strip might be formed within a few days. He added: "President Abbas told the U.S. administration that lifting the Gaza blockade is not less important than peace talks."

However, the issue is more complicated than it seems. On Wednesday, following President Barack Obama's political support for the "unsustainable" situation in Gaza along with $400 million pledge to Gazans, Abbas told Obama that the easing of the siege should not bolster Hamas. His suggestion was not to end the naval siege by Israel for the time being.

1200 GMT: Former MP George Galloway is planning a land and sea convoy in September. He said: "Following our negotiations in Istanbul, I can announce to you that the day after Ramadan [September 10], two mighty convoys, one by sea and one by land, will begin. The land convoy will leave from London, will travel though Europe, Turkey, Syria and Jordan, and it will sail from Aqaba to Sinai and enter the gates of Rafah, and I ask the Egyptian government, in the name of millions of people, open those gates and let the convoy through."

1130 GMT: An EA reader has just reported that 70 Iranian MPs are also volunteered to aboard.

1100 GMT: The Israeli Defense Ministry has announced that Defense Minister Ehud Barak will stay in Israel while the government creates a committee to investigate the raid on the Gaza-bound flotilla. He was supposed to be present at a new Israeli booth at the Eurosatory 2010 air show in Paris and to meet French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner. Barak took a decision following pro-Palestinian groups' threats that they would do their best to bring Barak to be justice for his alleged war crimes.

The former commander of the navy and Shin Bet, Ami Ayalon, also called on Barak to "accept responsibility for the consequences of the decision to raid flotilla" and to resign.

1045 GMT: The Voice of Israel reports that the Turkish delegation announced two weeks ago that it wasn’t coming to the conference on International Holocaust Education organized by Yad VaShem (Holocaust Martyrs' and Heroes' Remembrance Authority).

1030 GMT:  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the former Supreme Court chief justice Yaakov Tirkel will be appointed to head an investigation into Israeli Defense Forces' operation to Freedom Flotilla.

0900 GMT: Agence France Presse reports that the Iranian Red Crescent equipped and loaded two ships with aid and is awaiting the permission of the Foreign Ministry to set sail to Gaza. Iranian officials claim that 100.000 people have already volunteered to go aboard.

On Thursday, Israel's Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center warned that extremist Islamic organizations were planning to send more ships to the Gaza Strip.

0800 GMT: The head of the Arab League, Amr Moussa, is the first senior Arab official visiting Gaza since 2007. He met with Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas at the Rafah crossing, which Egypt is still keeping "temporarily" open,before seeing Hamas officials today to find a basis for the continuation of the reconciliation talks. Moussa said, "This blockade which we are all here to confront must be broken and the position of the Arab League is clear."

Turkey Analysis: Which Way is Ankara Heading? (Yenidunya)

There seems to be a lot of fuss right now about whether Turkey is "turning its face towards the East".

The query, often simplistic, arises from a number of development. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is pursuing a "Zero Problem with Neighbours" policy based on dialogue, various economic agreements, and the lifting of visa requirement. The policy includes a close relationship with both Syria and Iran.

This policy has been part of the uranium swap deal with Iran, dismissed by the West; the friction with Israel, from the "low chair" crisis up tothe  nine deaths on board the Mavi Marmara in the Freedom Flotilla; warming relations with Russia, crowned with a nuclear settlement; and the veto of sanctions against Iran in the UN Security Council.



Israeli officials reiterated, following the most recent crisis in high waters, that they view the region separated into two opposite camps. There are "moderates" such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Palestine (West Bank), Jordan, and Israel, There are "extremists" such as Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and (Palestine) Gaza. Israel asks: which will Turkey choose?

That blunt enquiry has been accompanied by some incredibly naive arguments, lacking an apparent notion of the basic principles of international relations. Nuh Yilmaz wrote in Foreign Policy magazine:

"All options are on the table” is the best phrase to describe how Turkey feels about Israel’s attack on humanitarian aid flotilla carrying more than 600 activists from 32 countries... Israel will, most likely, no longer be seen as a friendly state nor an ally, but will be treated as a rogue state by Turkey.

When I say Turkey will imply that “all options are on the table,” I do not mean that Turkey will wage a war against Israel. However, more dangerously, Israel will be seen as a state against which one should protect itself and should consider any possible action because of its unlawful and rogue character.

Others placed Ankara's "adventurism" at the centre of Turkish-American relations. Steven A. Cook of Foreign Policy argued that Turkey had not only shifted its axis but had dared to a challenge the US:

It is hard to admit, but after six decades of strategic cooperation, Turkey and the United States are becoming strategic competitors -- especially in the Middle East. This is the logical result of profound shifts in Turkish foreign and domestic politics and changes in the international system.

Some tried to find a formula for Turkey's "shift". On Thursday, Turkish daily Hurriyet asked whether there would be a "Middle East Union" under Turkey's leadership in the future. This would build on a joint declaration signed among Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria, seeking to lift visas and increase the level of cooperation in the fields of energy, health, agriculture, trade and customs.

Let me be blunt with you and with those who are wringing their hands. There has been no change in Turkey's axis.

Ankara's ultimate destination is still full membership in the European Union. Turkey's efforts and regional diplomatic initiatives are a part of its economic development and a part of its struggle to turn into a "strategic" mid-power which can help (re)shape the region.

The tension between a mid-power in Ankara and an American strategic partner --- a Middle East "spearhead" --- in Israel is the outcome of a power struggle between two allies at a time when the latter is under pressures and the benefits of "direct friendly support" of Washington are being seriously being questioned, inside and outside the US. The perception arises that Turkey is trying to fill the space Israel has left/will be forced to leave.

In the context of Turkey's economic boom and diplomatic manoeuvres to increase its credibility in the region, the  complicating factor is that its part to the European Union is currently blocked. Out of 34 chapters to be confirmed to accept Turkey as a part of the Union, only 12 chapters have been addressed so far. Of the other 22, 17 are being blocked by other countries --- eight alone by Cyprus.

The lesson to take from this dead end is crystal-clear: without political concessions on Cyprus and the Aegean Sea, there will be no European Union in the future for Turkey. So Ankara is not only  trying to gain time by looking to its back garden but also trying to knock on Europe's door with an increased credibility.

At the end of the day, Ankara's manoeuvres are not a new invention but the reflection of an active political agenda. As the president of the Washington-based American-Turkish Council, retired Ambassador James Holmes, said, "Turkey is expanding its interests, rather than isolating itself."

The current international alignments are suitable to Turkey's interests, since Washington needs Ankara more than other countries. That is not because of the political swamp in Afghanistan and Pakistan but also because of the ongoing diplomatic track with Iran and Syria, in the aftermath of Bush the Junior's imperial policies and Israel's perceived aggression in the region. Indeed, engagement and diplomacy is preferable to Washington rather than confrontations that could dynamite Obama's  "change", slapping aside unclenched fists and preventing a settlement between Israel and Ramallah.

There are limits to this political agenda. Although Ankara is ready with an economic surplus to deliver to its neighbours, it has not solved its own problems.

The weakest chain of the "Zero Problem" policy rattled in Turkey's relations with Armenia. Ankara couldn't break through long-standing fearsin the face of threats over energy supplies from the "little brother" Azerbaijan.

And, within Turkey, thousands of Kurdish children are in prisons and more officials of the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) are arrested. Indeed, the war with the Kurdish separatist group PKK is accelerating day-by-day since the Erdogan Government see the Kurdish political movement as a "rival".

And, of course, there are always the Armenian "genocide" issue and the Cyprus problem...

Another limit is Israel . West Jerusalem still means more than a regional power to Washington, remaining and a "friend" and a nuclear "democratic" power. Indeed, Washington sorted out the most recent Flotilla problem and gave a green light to Tel Aviv for an internal inquiry into the violence on the Mavi Marmara. Israel is not discredited in the eyes of Washington just because of a few days, not when military/intelligence relations are indispensable for both sides.

Still, if Ankara can show progress in its Kurdish and Cyprus issues in the near future along with continuing diplomacy advances in the region and a move back from blunter discourse towards Israel, it can continue increasing both its credibility to use as leverage against the EU and to promote its strategic importance to Washington.

Gaza Flotilla Latest (8 June): The Battle over the Blockade

1430 GMT: The Israeli Government says it is awaiting a "green light" from the US on its proposal for an investigation on the raid on the Mavi Marmara.

Seven senior ministers have agreed on a panel of jurists, but a senior official said that if this is not backed by the Obama Administration, "There is no point in establishing it."

1400 GMT: Battling Claims over the Blockade. The Israeli military has put out a press release declaring, "No Humanitarian Crisis in the Gaza Strip", and presenting quantities of imports in 2009-2010.

Ma'an News Agency paints a different picture as it reports, "Israel partly opened two crossing terminals on the border with Gaza for the entry of limited aid and fuel, keeping imports to a restricted minimum." The website claims, "Supplies remain limited, with the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs noting [that] goods barely reached 25% of [requirements] last week. [The] number is up from previous weeks, which [was about] 12% of [the] pre-siege level [of] imports."

Egypt has allowed nine opposition members of Parliament to cross into Gaza, a day after turning them back. However, the delegation had to leave behind their cargo of reconstruction materials.

Seven MPs were members of the banned but tolerated Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's largest opposition group. The other two were members of the leftist Nasserite party.

Israel's National Student Union has announced that it is planning to send hundreds of yachts to meet at sea any new humanitarian aid flotilla heading toward Gaza.

A new video has been released of the aftermath of last week's confrontation on the Mavi Marmara, the lead ship of the Freedom Flotilla:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3tc8kXaiwLI[/youtube]

Infowars Ireland features an interview with Huwaida Arraf, the chair of the Free Gaza Movement, about the Flotilla:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WMPrYZNl1U&feature=player_embedded#at=29[/youtube]

Egypt Analysis: Reviewing This Week's Elections

A new EA correspondent writes:

This week, there were elections to the Shura Council (Maglis il Shura), the upper house of the Egyptian parliament (Maglis il Shab). A third of the 264 seats will be decided by voting, with 44 more seats appointed by the President.

According to the Supreme Electoral Committee, 446 candidates are running in the elections: 115 belong to political parties whilst the remaining 331 candidates are independents, including some members of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The elections will not be under national court supervision or international monitoring, as Gamal Mubarak, General Secretary of the Policy Committee in the National Democratic Party, declared at a recent press conference: "This issue is governed by the law and the constitution which made it possible for civil society organizations to monitor the elections."



A journalist from Al Masry Al Youm claims that reporters were not allowed to enter the voting booths in Kafr il Zayat. He entered the voting booth as an "Egyptian citizen" to cast his ballot, only to find that --- as the elections officially began at 8 a.m. --- ballot boxes "256, 257, and 258" had already been filled with signed votes.

Mehwar confirmed in live coverage that representatives of candidates were prevented from entering the polling areas. The official authorisation (tawqeel) given by national security authorities to the representatives were disallowed in some cases.

Another reporter from Al Shorouq, speaking on the programme "Sabah Dream",claimed that in Besyoun in Asyut, representatives for candidates were not allowed to enter the voting booths to check that the elections fulfilled the legal requirements. Police arrested an opposition candidate, for "causing disruption" and for the sake of security, when he tried to get his representative to observe the local elections.

The reporter  added that he managed to obtain 200 ballot papers before entering the voting booth.

In the Behira constituency, a journalist from Al Masry al Youm --- again reporting "Sabah Dream" --- that an opposition candidate (from the Muslim Brotherhood) was shot by police. The injury was not life-threatening.

An Egyptian citizen from Masr al Gedida (New Cairo) was refused the right to vote, despite showing her identification card, because authorities could not find her name on the voters' list. Having lost her voting card, she was determined to vote and was advised that she could do so with proof of ID.  However, after a venture with officials throughout the building in a vain search for her name,  the disappointed woman returned home.

Whilst this determined citizen could not vote because of an innocent mistake, many others will not be bothering to turn up at all.  Only two out of eight citizens interviewed in a Cairo programme said they would vote.

That may not be surprising: when the Shura Council building went up in flames on 7 July 2009, few people interviewed on evening programmes showed concern for the welfare of the members of the Council.

Gaza Flotilla LiveBlog: The Politics After the Attack (1 June)

2200 GMT: Israeli officials stated that around 10 thousand tons of humanitarian aid reached to Gaza.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVrhQTiAJxM&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

Gaza Flotilla: The Text of the UN Security Council Statement
Gaza Flotilla: A Short Note on Why Our “New Media” Are Essential
Blaming the Gaza Flotilla: Text of US Remarks in Security Council
The Flotilla: Has Israel Lost Its Second Gaza War? (Burston)

2115 GMT: Israeli officials said all 680 activists held would be released, including two dozen Israel had threatened earlier to prosecute charging they had assaulted its troops.



2030 GMT: Israeli officials are concerned that Turkey will dispatch Navy warships to accompany a future flotilla to the Gaza Strip.

2000 GMT: The state asked the High Court of Justice to reject out of hand petitions demanding that Israel return the hundreds of anti-blockade activists to their boats in international waters and allow them to sail to Gaza.

1930 GMT: Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen urged Israel to let the vessel to finish its mission. Speaking at the parliament in Dublin, he said: "The government has formally requested the Israeli government to allow the Irish-owned ship ... to be allowed to complete its journey unimpeded and discharge its humanitarian cargo in Gaza".

1840 GMT: Hamas chief Khaled Meshal called on all states to cut diplomatic ties with Israel. He said:

We call on all Arab and Islamic nations, and all those who have relations with Israel, to cut all their relations and contacts in all shapes and levels with the Zionist entity.

The continuation of contacts and relations with Israel is a reward for their crimes.

1750 GMT: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated the 'significance of the operation" during a special meeting with his ministers. He said:

We know from the experience of Operation Cast Lead that the weapons entering Gaza are being turned against our civilians.

Gaza is a terror state funded by the Iranians, and therefore we must try to prevent any weapons from being brought into Gaza by air, sea and land

1715 GMT: NATO called for a "prompt, impartial, credible and transparent investigation". Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen also demanded the immediate release of the detained civilians and ships held by Israel.

1655 GMT: A report written by the Israeli based Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center says that The Foundation for Human Rights and Humanitarian Relief (IHH) is a “radical Islamic Organization with an anti-Western orientation.” The report continues: “Besides its legitimate philanthropic activities, it supports radical Islamic networks, including Hamas, and that at least in the past, even global jihad networks.”

According to the defense officials, the IDF identified a group of about 100 passengers on the ship that could have terrorist connections with Global Jihad affiliated groups.

1630 GMT: Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman accused the international community of being "two faced," following UNSC's statement.

1610 GMT: Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak ordered to open the Rafah land crossing for an unlimited time to let medical and humanitarian aid go in Gaza.

1600 GMT: More Witness Statements. German activist Norman Paech said he had only seen wooden sticks being brandished as troops abseiled on to the deck of the Mavi Marmara, the lead ship in the Flotilla.

Fellow German activist Inge Hoeger said, "We were aware that this would not be a simple cruise across the sea to deliver the goods to Gaza. But we did not count on this kind of brutality."

Bayram Kalyon, arriving back in Istanbul, recounted, "The captain... told us, 'They are firing randomly, they are breaking the windows and entering inside. So you should get out of here as soon as possible'. That was our last conversation with him." (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/10208027.stm)

1515 GMT: Getting to the Point. Turkish activist Nilufer Cetin, deported from Israel, said Israeli troops opened fire before boarding the Mavi Marmara, the lead ship of the Flotilla.

Cetin, whose husband is the Mavi Marmara's chief engineer, said, "The Mavi Marmara is filled with blood....The operation started immediately with firing. First it was warning shots, but when the Mavi Marmara wouldn't stop these warnings turned into an attack.
There were sound and smoke bombs and later they used gas bombs. Following the bombings they started to come on board from helicopters."

The account supports video evidence and other accounts, posted on EA, that indicate Israeli forces fired before boarding the ship.

1350 GMT: Speaking at the Knesset, Mossad's Chief Meir Dagan said that strategic ties between Jerusalem and Washington have been slowly changing since the end of the Cold War. He continued: "Bit by bit,
Israel is becoming less of a strategic asset for America".

1330 GMT: A top Navy commander told The Jerusalem Post that Israel will use more aggressive force in the future to prevent ships from breaking the sea blockade and added:

We boarded the ship and were attacked as if it was a war. That will mean that we will have to come prepared in the future as if it was a war.

1315 GMT:The Limits of Criticism. Despite Prime Minister Erdogan's strident criticism of Israel's "bloody massacre" (see 1245 GMT), Turkish Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul said the Freedom Flotilla crisis will not affect the planned delivery of Israel-made Heron drones to Turkey.

1305 GMT: An American official says, “The situation is that [the Israelis] are so isolated right now that it’s not only that we’re the only ones who will stick up for them. We’re the only ones who believe them –-- and what they’re saying is true.”

Another "senior Administration official" has indicated that there will be no strong US action against Israel, “The president has always said that it will be much easier for Israel to make peace if it feels secure.”

1300 GMT: We've posted the text of the UN Security Council resolution on the Flotilla attack.

1245 GMT: Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has told Parliament, "This bloody massacre by Israel on ships that were taking humanitarian aid to Gaza deserves every kind of curse."

Erdogan demanded that Israel immediately halt its "inhumane" blockade of Gaza.

1200 GMT: Back from a break to find Al Jazeera cameraman Issam Za'atar, who was on the Flotilla, talking about his experience. A summary from an activist:

"Shocked by savage behavior" of Israelis....Israeli soldiers attacked journalists, chased cameraman, tried to attack him with electric prod to stop him filming....They attacked with gunfire, tear gas, strange-smelling gases.

0945 GMT: Six Greek citizens are back in Athens after accepting deportation from Israel. The released passengers said Israeli commandos beat activists with clubs and used electric shocks. They added that they could hear shooting as Israeli forces boarded the Mavi Marmara, the lead ship.

The Greek government has suspended joint military exercises with Israel and issued a harsh statement condemning the raid.

0845 GMT:The Next Aid Ships. Greta Berlin of the Free Gaza Movement says a second boat carrying about three dozen passengers will join the MV Rachel Corrie, already en route to Gaza and expected to reach coastal waters on Wednesday.

0815 GMT: The protest march in Ankara, heading for the Israeli Embassy in Turkey, has begun.

Demonstrators are stomping on a picture of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dressed as a pirate.

0810 GMT: Football and Politics. It is reported that Turkey's Ministry of Sport has cancelled tonight's friendly between the Israeli and Turkish youth football teams.

0745 GMT: Amidst the propaganda battle to define what occurred yesterday and the "proper" political response, we've posted a separate entry on "Why Our 'New Media' Are Essential".

0730 GMT: Neil MacFarquhar of The New York Times gets behind the formal UN Security Council resolution:

Turkey proposed a statement that would condemn Israel for violating international law, demand a United Nations investigation and demand that Israel prosecute those responsible for the raid and pay compensation to the victims. It also called for the end of the blockade.

The Obama administration refused to endorse a statement that singled out Israel, and proposed a broader condemnation of the violence that would include the assault of the Israeli commandos as they landed on the deck of the ship."

0725 GMT: And Who Can Speak to the Passengers? The Free Gaza Movement, the organisers of the Flotilla, reports, "Israel has refused our lawyers contact with passengers. No contact with any of them since 3:30 am yesterday. None. Zero. Zip."

0720 GMT: What Happened? Sherine Tadros of Al Jazeera asks an important question: "Will footage taken by journalists onboard the Mavi Marmara [the lead ship in the Flotilla] be confiscated? Still no confirmation by police."

0640 GMT: More Politics. It is interesting this morning thatformer and present British diplomats are pressing the line that Israeli restrictions on aid to Gaza --- the "siege" --- must be lifted. Whether this translates into meaningful action is another matter.

Meanwhile, The New York Times stumbles upon the point that my colleague Ali Yenidunya was already making with his updates to the LiveBlog last night: "Israeli Raid Complicates US Push for Peace".

Let's be clearer than that, shall we? If there is no US denunciation of the Israeli attack --- irrespective of whether you think it should be denounced --- there will be "no push for peace" in the foreseeable future. No Palestinian leader can risk talks, direct or indirect, given the anger throughout the Middle East --- and, in some cases, beyond --- over West Jerusalem's military action.

0635 GMT: How Many Died? We have not posted a figure because we simply don't know. Al Jazeera was reporting "up to 19", but the Israeli military changed the figures throughout the day, finally settling on nine or ten. Because there is no communication with the flotilla or the passengers, thanks to that Israeli military, it is not possible to get close to the truth.

0630 GMT: Amidst the Israel PR line that the passengers on the flotilla were connected to Hamas, The Guardian of London has a useful summary of the former and current parliamentarians, journalists, fimmakers, Nobel Prize laureate, and human rights activists who were aboard.

0615 GMT: Catching up with overnight developments, which have already put down important political markers to watch....

The United Nations Security Council has gone through the ritual of an "emergency session" with few surprises in the statements. Most members denounced the Israeli attack on the Freedom Flotilla, while Israel maintained the line, "What kind of peace activists use knives, clubs and other weapons to attack soldiers?". The US statement (text in separate entry) implicitly defended West Jerusalem by putting the blame for the incident on the flotilla organisers.

The session concluded with a call for an enquiry, but that begs an important question: will that enquiry be by an independent body or by Israeli authorities?

The lesson of the Gaza War of December-January 2008/2009 is significant here. The UN held out against Israeli pressure for its own investigation of the military actions during the war, but Israel and allies effectively trashed the Goldstone Report (and Richard Goldstone) in the months since it appeared.

On another legal/political front, Israel will deport 48 activists from the Flotilla, including 81-year-old former US Ambassador Edward Peck; however, another 480 will be detained in Beersheba pending appeals/eventual deportation.

If many of those 480 continue to refuse deportation, and thus wind up in Israeli jails for an indefinite period, that may be a point of pressure upon West Jerusalem.

Then there is the possibility of an immediate sequel to yesterday's assault: the Israeli military has declared that it is ready to stop another aid ship headed to Gaza. The MV Rachel Corrie, a converted merchant ship named after the activist run down and killed by an Israeli bulldozer, is planning to reach Gazan waters by Wednesday.