Turkey Analysis: Which Way is Ankara Heading? (Yenidunya)

There seems to be a lot of fuss right now about whether Turkey is "turning its face towards the East".

The query, often simplistic, arises from a number of development. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is pursuing a "Zero Problem with Neighbours" policy based on dialogue, various economic agreements, and the lifting of visa requirement. The policy includes a close relationship with both Syria and Iran.

This policy has been part of the uranium swap deal with Iran, dismissed by the West; the friction with Israel, from the "low chair" crisis up tothe  nine deaths on board the Mavi Marmara in the Freedom Flotilla; warming relations with Russia, crowned with a nuclear settlement; and the veto of sanctions against Iran in the UN Security Council.



Israeli officials reiterated, following the most recent crisis in high waters, that they view the region separated into two opposite camps. There are "moderates" such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Palestine (West Bank), Jordan, and Israel, There are "extremists" such as Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and (Palestine) Gaza. Israel asks: which will Turkey choose?

That blunt enquiry has been accompanied by some incredibly naive arguments, lacking an apparent notion of the basic principles of international relations. Nuh Yilmaz wrote in Foreign Policy magazine:

"All options are on the table” is the best phrase to describe how Turkey feels about Israel’s attack on humanitarian aid flotilla carrying more than 600 activists from 32 countries... Israel will, most likely, no longer be seen as a friendly state nor an ally, but will be treated as a rogue state by Turkey.

When I say Turkey will imply that “all options are on the table,” I do not mean that Turkey will wage a war against Israel. However, more dangerously, Israel will be seen as a state against which one should protect itself and should consider any possible action because of its unlawful and rogue character.

Others placed Ankara's "adventurism" at the centre of Turkish-American relations. Steven A. Cook of Foreign Policy argued that Turkey had not only shifted its axis but had dared to a challenge the US:

It is hard to admit, but after six decades of strategic cooperation, Turkey and the United States are becoming strategic competitors -- especially in the Middle East. This is the logical result of profound shifts in Turkish foreign and domestic politics and changes in the international system.

Some tried to find a formula for Turkey's "shift". On Thursday, Turkish daily Hurriyet asked whether there would be a "Middle East Union" under Turkey's leadership in the future. This would build on a joint declaration signed among Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria, seeking to lift visas and increase the level of cooperation in the fields of energy, health, agriculture, trade and customs.

Let me be blunt with you and with those who are wringing their hands. There has been no change in Turkey's axis.

Ankara's ultimate destination is still full membership in the European Union. Turkey's efforts and regional diplomatic initiatives are a part of its economic development and a part of its struggle to turn into a "strategic" mid-power which can help (re)shape the region.

The tension between a mid-power in Ankara and an American strategic partner --- a Middle East "spearhead" --- in Israel is the outcome of a power struggle between two allies at a time when the latter is under pressures and the benefits of "direct friendly support" of Washington are being seriously being questioned, inside and outside the US. The perception arises that Turkey is trying to fill the space Israel has left/will be forced to leave.

In the context of Turkey's economic boom and diplomatic manoeuvres to increase its credibility in the region, the  complicating factor is that its part to the European Union is currently blocked. Out of 34 chapters to be confirmed to accept Turkey as a part of the Union, only 12 chapters have been addressed so far. Of the other 22, 17 are being blocked by other countries --- eight alone by Cyprus.

The lesson to take from this dead end is crystal-clear: without political concessions on Cyprus and the Aegean Sea, there will be no European Union in the future for Turkey. So Ankara is not only  trying to gain time by looking to its back garden but also trying to knock on Europe's door with an increased credibility.

At the end of the day, Ankara's manoeuvres are not a new invention but the reflection of an active political agenda. As the president of the Washington-based American-Turkish Council, retired Ambassador James Holmes, said, "Turkey is expanding its interests, rather than isolating itself."

The current international alignments are suitable to Turkey's interests, since Washington needs Ankara more than other countries. That is not because of the political swamp in Afghanistan and Pakistan but also because of the ongoing diplomatic track with Iran and Syria, in the aftermath of Bush the Junior's imperial policies and Israel's perceived aggression in the region. Indeed, engagement and diplomacy is preferable to Washington rather than confrontations that could dynamite Obama's  "change", slapping aside unclenched fists and preventing a settlement between Israel and Ramallah.

There are limits to this political agenda. Although Ankara is ready with an economic surplus to deliver to its neighbours, it has not solved its own problems.

The weakest chain of the "Zero Problem" policy rattled in Turkey's relations with Armenia. Ankara couldn't break through long-standing fearsin the face of threats over energy supplies from the "little brother" Azerbaijan.

And, within Turkey, thousands of Kurdish children are in prisons and more officials of the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) are arrested. Indeed, the war with the Kurdish separatist group PKK is accelerating day-by-day since the Erdogan Government see the Kurdish political movement as a "rival".

And, of course, there are always the Armenian "genocide" issue and the Cyprus problem...

Another limit is Israel . West Jerusalem still means more than a regional power to Washington, remaining and a "friend" and a nuclear "democratic" power. Indeed, Washington sorted out the most recent Flotilla problem and gave a green light to Tel Aviv for an internal inquiry into the violence on the Mavi Marmara. Israel is not discredited in the eyes of Washington just because of a few days, not when military/intelligence relations are indispensable for both sides.

Still, if Ankara can show progress in its Kurdish and Cyprus issues in the near future along with continuing diplomacy advances in the region and a move back from blunter discourse towards Israel, it can continue increasing both its credibility to use as leverage against the EU and to promote its strategic importance to Washington.

Gaza Flotilla LiveBlog (6 June): Israel Blames "Islamist Mercenaries"

2030 GMT: Turkey's minister of energy and natural resources, Taner Yildiz, has announced that there will be no new energy or water projects with Israel until relations between the two countries improve: "At a time when we are focused on the humanitarian aspects of what Israel did, we can't talk about commercial and economic matters. We won't start any project with Israel until relations with them have been normalized."

NEW Gaza Flotilla: Israel "Passengers Linked to Hamas, Al Qa'eda, Terrorist Organisations"
Turkey Inside Line: Erdogan Roars at Israel, Extends His Hand to Iraqi Kurdistan
Gaza Flotilla LiveBlog (5 June): Israel Forces Board the Rachel Corrie

1920 GMT: A group of senior Israel Navy officers have publicly called on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak to establish an independent and external commission of inquiry to investigate the Mavi Marmara raid: "We believe that the operation ended in a disaster on a military and diplomatic level," the reserve officers who served as commanders of Navy ships wrote in the letter.


1845 GMT: We have posted, in a separate entry, the dramatic press release from the Israeli military that five of the passengers of the Mavi Marmara are linked to Hamas, Al Qa'eda, and other "terrorist organisations".

1815 GMT: This Should Be Interesting. Israel's Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, not noted for diplomatic subtlety, is reportedly planning to meet "with envoys and representatives of Israel, and Jewish communities in the US and Canada, to explain the Israeli government's position on the flotilla affair".

There are no indications Lieberman will meet US Government or UN officials during the trip.

1650 GMT: It appears that, contrary to earlier reports (1105 GMT), Israel will reject the UN's proposal of an international enquiry into the attack on the Mavi Marmara. Michael Oren, Israel's Ambassador to the US, has told Fox News, "We are rejecting an international commission. We are discussing with the Obama administration a way in which our inquiry will take place."

Mark Regev, the Israeli Government's primary spokesman, has just repeated the line on CNN.

1639 GMT: The Battle of the Photographs. We noted in our initial update (1045 GMT) that defenders of the Israeli military action have been circulating a photograph, taken from the Turkish newspaper Hurriyet, that they claim shows passengers attacking an injured Israeli soldier.

Defenders of the Flotilla are now pointing out that the one picture is out of context: the full set of nine photographs from Hurriyet, Turkish newspapers, and other sources show the Flotilla's activists caring for Israeli troops (see inset photograph).

1635 GMT: The Free Gaza Movement reports that the five Irish passengers from the Rachel Corrie have been deported and will return to Ireland tomorrow.

1615 GMT: Israel has deported eight Flotilla activists to Jordan. Seven are from the Rachel Corrie; the eighth is an Indonesian who was injured in the attack on the Mavi Marmara.

No word on the other passengers of the Rachel Corrie.

1545 GMT: Blame Turkey, An illuminating clash in approach between two of America's largest newspapers: while The New York Times has an analysis noting the re-assessment amongst some US insiders of the relationship with Israel, The Washington Post's editorial team directs its fire at Ankara:

Western governments have been right to be concerned about Israel's poor judgment and botched execution in the raid against the Free Gaza flotilla. But they ought to be at least as worried about the Turkish government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which since Monday has shown a sympathy toward Islamic militants and a penchant for grotesque demagoguery toward Israel that ought to be unacceptable for a member of NATO.

1230 GMT: Eyewitness Testimony. Journalist Abbas Al Lawati, who was aboard the Mavi Marmara, has posted the third part of his account, focusing on his interrogation by Israeli authorities.

1210 GMT: Israeli Foreign Ministry officials have said that West Jerusalem not apologize to Turkey for the deaths of eight Turkish and 1 Turkish-American activists on the Mavi Marmara.

A "top official"laimed that the Turkish demand for an official apology was mainly an excuse to allow Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut diplomatic ties with Israel.

The Foreign Ministry officials said they were surprised by the request for an apology from Turkey's Ambassador to the US, Namik Tan, who "was known to be a supporter of Israel".

(Hmm.... If a "supporter of Israel" is calling for the apology, I would think that Israeli officials might consider how serious the diplomatic situation has become.)

1130 GMT: The New Israeli Line. Speaking at the opening of a Cabinet meeting,Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced, ""Evidence shows separate group of violent Islamists boarded flotilla....[They] boarded the ship at a separate port, did their own provisioning, and were not subject to the same security check of their luggage as all the other passengers.”

The Israeli Defense Forces are briefing the press that a group of about 50 men of the 700 on board the Mavi Marmara were trained fighters recruited from the northwestern Turkey city of Bursa. None had ID cards or passports; each carried an envelope with $10,000 in cash.

1105 GMT: Ha'aretz reports that UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has given Israel a proposal for an international committee of inquiry into the raid on the Mavi Marmara. The newspaper says that senior Israeli officials are recommending a positive response because Turkey will probably oppose it.

The committee would be headed by former New Zealand Prime Minister Geoffrey Palmer, an expert on maritime law, and include representatives from the US, Turkey, and Israel. Ban made the proposal in a phone call to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

1045 GMT: The immediate tragedy and dramas of two Israeli boardings of Freedom Flotilla ships may be over, but there is still a lot of uncertainty and political tension about today.

Israel's official line is that most of the activists from the MV Rachel Corrie, the ship seized by the Israeli military yesterday and towed to Israel's port of Ashdod, will be deported.

The Free Gaza Movement, however, says, "Nothing from the kidnapped passengers. [Nobel Prize laureate] Mairead [Corrigan]'s husband said no contact with her. Israel refuses to allow lawyers to talk to them."

The battle of words and pictures also continues. There are claims that Israel altered the audio on supposed communications with the Mavi Marmara (see Friday's updates for the Israeli version of the exchange), the ship attacked on Monday, to create the impression of passengers shouting insults such as "Shut up, go back to Auschwitz".

And discussion is heating up over photographs in Hurriyet,  the Turkish newspaper, showing an injured Israeli commando surrounded by passengers of the Mavi Marmara.

Gaza Flotilla LiveBlog: The Politics After the Attack (1 June)

2200 GMT: Israeli officials stated that around 10 thousand tons of humanitarian aid reached to Gaza.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVrhQTiAJxM&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

Gaza Flotilla: The Text of the UN Security Council Statement
Gaza Flotilla: A Short Note on Why Our “New Media” Are Essential
Blaming the Gaza Flotilla: Text of US Remarks in Security Council
The Flotilla: Has Israel Lost Its Second Gaza War? (Burston)

2115 GMT: Israeli officials said all 680 activists held would be released, including two dozen Israel had threatened earlier to prosecute charging they had assaulted its troops.



2030 GMT: Israeli officials are concerned that Turkey will dispatch Navy warships to accompany a future flotilla to the Gaza Strip.

2000 GMT: The state asked the High Court of Justice to reject out of hand petitions demanding that Israel return the hundreds of anti-blockade activists to their boats in international waters and allow them to sail to Gaza.

1930 GMT: Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen urged Israel to let the vessel to finish its mission. Speaking at the parliament in Dublin, he said: "The government has formally requested the Israeli government to allow the Irish-owned ship ... to be allowed to complete its journey unimpeded and discharge its humanitarian cargo in Gaza".

1840 GMT: Hamas chief Khaled Meshal called on all states to cut diplomatic ties with Israel. He said:

We call on all Arab and Islamic nations, and all those who have relations with Israel, to cut all their relations and contacts in all shapes and levels with the Zionist entity.

The continuation of contacts and relations with Israel is a reward for their crimes.

1750 GMT: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated the 'significance of the operation" during a special meeting with his ministers. He said:

We know from the experience of Operation Cast Lead that the weapons entering Gaza are being turned against our civilians.

Gaza is a terror state funded by the Iranians, and therefore we must try to prevent any weapons from being brought into Gaza by air, sea and land

1715 GMT: NATO called for a "prompt, impartial, credible and transparent investigation". Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen also demanded the immediate release of the detained civilians and ships held by Israel.

1655 GMT: A report written by the Israeli based Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center says that The Foundation for Human Rights and Humanitarian Relief (IHH) is a “radical Islamic Organization with an anti-Western orientation.” The report continues: “Besides its legitimate philanthropic activities, it supports radical Islamic networks, including Hamas, and that at least in the past, even global jihad networks.”

According to the defense officials, the IDF identified a group of about 100 passengers on the ship that could have terrorist connections with Global Jihad affiliated groups.

1630 GMT: Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman accused the international community of being "two faced," following UNSC's statement.

1610 GMT: Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak ordered to open the Rafah land crossing for an unlimited time to let medical and humanitarian aid go in Gaza.

1600 GMT: More Witness Statements. German activist Norman Paech said he had only seen wooden sticks being brandished as troops abseiled on to the deck of the Mavi Marmara, the lead ship in the Flotilla.

Fellow German activist Inge Hoeger said, "We were aware that this would not be a simple cruise across the sea to deliver the goods to Gaza. But we did not count on this kind of brutality."

Bayram Kalyon, arriving back in Istanbul, recounted, "The captain... told us, 'They are firing randomly, they are breaking the windows and entering inside. So you should get out of here as soon as possible'. That was our last conversation with him." (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/10208027.stm)

1515 GMT: Getting to the Point. Turkish activist Nilufer Cetin, deported from Israel, said Israeli troops opened fire before boarding the Mavi Marmara, the lead ship of the Flotilla.

Cetin, whose husband is the Mavi Marmara's chief engineer, said, "The Mavi Marmara is filled with blood....The operation started immediately with firing. First it was warning shots, but when the Mavi Marmara wouldn't stop these warnings turned into an attack.
There were sound and smoke bombs and later they used gas bombs. Following the bombings they started to come on board from helicopters."

The account supports video evidence and other accounts, posted on EA, that indicate Israeli forces fired before boarding the ship.

1350 GMT: Speaking at the Knesset, Mossad's Chief Meir Dagan said that strategic ties between Jerusalem and Washington have been slowly changing since the end of the Cold War. He continued: "Bit by bit,
Israel is becoming less of a strategic asset for America".

1330 GMT: A top Navy commander told The Jerusalem Post that Israel will use more aggressive force in the future to prevent ships from breaking the sea blockade and added:

We boarded the ship and were attacked as if it was a war. That will mean that we will have to come prepared in the future as if it was a war.

1315 GMT:The Limits of Criticism. Despite Prime Minister Erdogan's strident criticism of Israel's "bloody massacre" (see 1245 GMT), Turkish Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul said the Freedom Flotilla crisis will not affect the planned delivery of Israel-made Heron drones to Turkey.

1305 GMT: An American official says, “The situation is that [the Israelis] are so isolated right now that it’s not only that we’re the only ones who will stick up for them. We’re the only ones who believe them –-- and what they’re saying is true.”

Another "senior Administration official" has indicated that there will be no strong US action against Israel, “The president has always said that it will be much easier for Israel to make peace if it feels secure.”

1300 GMT: We've posted the text of the UN Security Council resolution on the Flotilla attack.

1245 GMT: Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has told Parliament, "This bloody massacre by Israel on ships that were taking humanitarian aid to Gaza deserves every kind of curse."

Erdogan demanded that Israel immediately halt its "inhumane" blockade of Gaza.

1200 GMT: Back from a break to find Al Jazeera cameraman Issam Za'atar, who was on the Flotilla, talking about his experience. A summary from an activist:

"Shocked by savage behavior" of Israelis....Israeli soldiers attacked journalists, chased cameraman, tried to attack him with electric prod to stop him filming....They attacked with gunfire, tear gas, strange-smelling gases.

0945 GMT: Six Greek citizens are back in Athens after accepting deportation from Israel. The released passengers said Israeli commandos beat activists with clubs and used electric shocks. They added that they could hear shooting as Israeli forces boarded the Mavi Marmara, the lead ship.

The Greek government has suspended joint military exercises with Israel and issued a harsh statement condemning the raid.

0845 GMT:The Next Aid Ships. Greta Berlin of the Free Gaza Movement says a second boat carrying about three dozen passengers will join the MV Rachel Corrie, already en route to Gaza and expected to reach coastal waters on Wednesday.

0815 GMT: The protest march in Ankara, heading for the Israeli Embassy in Turkey, has begun.

Demonstrators are stomping on a picture of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dressed as a pirate.

0810 GMT: Football and Politics. It is reported that Turkey's Ministry of Sport has cancelled tonight's friendly between the Israeli and Turkish youth football teams.

0745 GMT: Amidst the propaganda battle to define what occurred yesterday and the "proper" political response, we've posted a separate entry on "Why Our 'New Media' Are Essential".

0730 GMT: Neil MacFarquhar of The New York Times gets behind the formal UN Security Council resolution:

Turkey proposed a statement that would condemn Israel for violating international law, demand a United Nations investigation and demand that Israel prosecute those responsible for the raid and pay compensation to the victims. It also called for the end of the blockade.

The Obama administration refused to endorse a statement that singled out Israel, and proposed a broader condemnation of the violence that would include the assault of the Israeli commandos as they landed on the deck of the ship."

0725 GMT: And Who Can Speak to the Passengers? The Free Gaza Movement, the organisers of the Flotilla, reports, "Israel has refused our lawyers contact with passengers. No contact with any of them since 3:30 am yesterday. None. Zero. Zip."

0720 GMT: What Happened? Sherine Tadros of Al Jazeera asks an important question: "Will footage taken by journalists onboard the Mavi Marmara [the lead ship in the Flotilla] be confiscated? Still no confirmation by police."

0640 GMT: More Politics. It is interesting this morning thatformer and present British diplomats are pressing the line that Israeli restrictions on aid to Gaza --- the "siege" --- must be lifted. Whether this translates into meaningful action is another matter.

Meanwhile, The New York Times stumbles upon the point that my colleague Ali Yenidunya was already making with his updates to the LiveBlog last night: "Israeli Raid Complicates US Push for Peace".

Let's be clearer than that, shall we? If there is no US denunciation of the Israeli attack --- irrespective of whether you think it should be denounced --- there will be "no push for peace" in the foreseeable future. No Palestinian leader can risk talks, direct or indirect, given the anger throughout the Middle East --- and, in some cases, beyond --- over West Jerusalem's military action.

0635 GMT: How Many Died? We have not posted a figure because we simply don't know. Al Jazeera was reporting "up to 19", but the Israeli military changed the figures throughout the day, finally settling on nine or ten. Because there is no communication with the flotilla or the passengers, thanks to that Israeli military, it is not possible to get close to the truth.

0630 GMT: Amidst the Israel PR line that the passengers on the flotilla were connected to Hamas, The Guardian of London has a useful summary of the former and current parliamentarians, journalists, fimmakers, Nobel Prize laureate, and human rights activists who were aboard.

0615 GMT: Catching up with overnight developments, which have already put down important political markers to watch....

The United Nations Security Council has gone through the ritual of an "emergency session" with few surprises in the statements. Most members denounced the Israeli attack on the Freedom Flotilla, while Israel maintained the line, "What kind of peace activists use knives, clubs and other weapons to attack soldiers?". The US statement (text in separate entry) implicitly defended West Jerusalem by putting the blame for the incident on the flotilla organisers.

The session concluded with a call for an enquiry, but that begs an important question: will that enquiry be by an independent body or by Israeli authorities?

The lesson of the Gaza War of December-January 2008/2009 is significant here. The UN held out against Israeli pressure for its own investigation of the military actions during the war, but Israel and allies effectively trashed the Goldstone Report (and Richard Goldstone) in the months since it appeared.

On another legal/political front, Israel will deport 48 activists from the Flotilla, including 81-year-old former US Ambassador Edward Peck; however, another 480 will be detained in Beersheba pending appeals/eventual deportation.

If many of those 480 continue to refuse deportation, and thus wind up in Israeli jails for an indefinite period, that may be a point of pressure upon West Jerusalem.

Then there is the possibility of an immediate sequel to yesterday's assault: the Israeli military has declared that it is ready to stop another aid ship headed to Gaza. The MV Rachel Corrie, a converted merchant ship named after the activist run down and killed by an Israeli bulldozer, is planning to reach Gazan waters by Wednesday.